Transcription
You are sitting on top of a damn avalanche waiting to go. The entire risk of the market is not what Putin does, what Trump does. It's valuation.
I want to hear your take on Trump's brawl with Jerome Powell.
For the young generation who's gotten humped pretty badly. They got sold a bill of goods about spending a fortune. They want to give him a 50-year mortgage, which means they're just renters.
AI the most important development since fire or dude, the biggest bubble I've ever seen. Where are you? Well, I put AI is not as important as the internet and I put the internet not as important as electricity and I put electricity not as important as fire.
We're heading into the spring. What's going on up in Ithaca this spring? What are you thinking about?
Goldstein sun. What's happening good people? We are here to record Macro Dirt podcast number 81 on the 20th of January. My regular partner in crime is not available. So I got my old friend, the one and only Dave Colum from Cornell University to join us today. How you doing Dave?
We're good. We go back a long long ways.
We do, man. We are connected at the soul via Ithaca, New York, where Dave, for my listeners that don't know, Dave was a graduate in 1977 and I was a graduate in 1990. And while we didn't know each other while I was at Cornell, I got to know Dave very early in my professional career. Uh, as we got hooked up, I don't even know how we got hooked up, but we've been friends probably for god 10, 15 years now at least. Right.
Right. Probably via Twitter, but you never know, right? Yeah. Yeah. You know, my claim to fame now, Dave, is that I beat Tucker Carlson to interviewing you.
There's a lot of people beat Tucker.
You and you and Zubie are my claim to fame, though. I had you I was like, "These guys are going to be these guys are controversial."
You got Zubie. That's pretty good to get Zubie.
Yeah, Zub.
I'm kind of a [ __ ] but Zubie.
You do put your thoughts out there. And that's what I really love the most about you is that you are not afraid to speak your mind. you speak what you believe and believe what you say and uh that is a valuable commodity in the world today. Um so to go back into it so Dave has got a 77 undergraduate degree from Cornell, a PhD in chemistry from Colombia. He's the Betty R. Miller professor in the department of chemistry and chemical biology at Cornell. Were you at the dead show in 1977, Dave?
Uh no, but we met up at the next dead show many many decades later. Oh, right. Did you really? Oh.
No. You did. You and I did.
Yeah. Yeah. When I came up for the uh
Yeah. All the all the all the old gray hair mossbacks.
Oh my god.
Reed up. Yeah.
That was a riot. I'm glad I I went to that because
I'm not a dead head when I was an undergrad. I was not a
I understand. I met some guys that were there for the 77 show when we came.
I've heard that's the legendary conference. What made that concert? What made that so special? What was it? You know, it's hard to it's the dead community that picked up on the Barton Hall show and said that this might be the most perfect dead show ever played. And I don't think they thought that at the time. I thought that by 10 years later, by the time that there were Dicks picks and things like that and and people picking out the best of live dead that everybody zeroed in on that May 8th show, you know.
That's an interesting one. The way those guys play. My understanding is that it there's so much improv that that that it really could just, you know, they're the one band that would have a, you know, highly variable performance.
Yeah. Yeah. And what's amazing, I listen to it all the time. You know, it is it is a treat. And for somebody I you know I've listened to hundreds upon hundreds of dead shows and when a song from Barton Hall is playing I can pick it out of a crowd you know what I mean and be like oh that you know that's the the Barton Hall straw whatever it is you know so that's how
I guess legendary it was so to speak.
So Dave I just read your year review cover to cover. I'm literally blown away at the depth that you cover such a wide range of topics, man. How do you do it?
Uh, good question. Uh, it's actually the shortest one I've written in probably 15 years.
I know that.
And for various reasons, I just finished Bob Morardi, Goldbug, and a guy named Jeremy Irwin, who's a who's an editor.
Uh, we we've essentially finished uh preparing all 17 years for binding. Now, let me let me let me put that into context. So, Jeremy had to edit and I had to proofread and correct and fix a bunch of [ __ ] on what I estimate to be about 3500 pages.
Oh, man. That.
So, one of them, one of them, the 2021 in book form was 550 pages and I wrote it in the fall.
And that covered COVID and and all of that, right?
That was COVID. in January 6th.
Right?
And and there was stuff and and I remember that was the one where I said, "Look, you can't just write till you're out of gas. You got to get to the finish of this one."
Yeah.
So So the finish was 550. It was more like 300 and something sort of single space typewritten pages. But um
Is it is it cathartic to get all of your thoughts on paper like that?
Uh it's cathartic to finish it. The other the other tough thing about writing a big document like that is that it sucks until the very last draft. And a lot of people don't know that. So you you know it's not funny, it's not edited, it's not and and you're working on it and you're shaping it and then all of a sudden the last draft you go, I got it.
But it means you basically suffer right up until that last draft. And so so it uh
And and then when I read it, it it seemed like I could have shortened it that particular one. it seemed. And again, if you got to write that much, you don't have time to shorten it as much as you'd like. But um
Yeah, but you know, it's important that you do it because you know, you you know, you really pave the way for the cit for the citizen journalist in my opinion. You know what I mean? Like you've been taking
To picture that being true, but okay, I'll I'll accept it. No, I think you do. Well, may you know, maybe it's just my frame of reference that you have, but like I don't think that they're Nick Shirley's unless there are Dave Collins first, you know, that are saying, "No, I don't really believe what the media is telling me about this Vegas shooting. I'm going to go dig in myself." And I remember that the piece that you wrote about that was one of the I I thought you deserved the Puliter Prize for that.
You said that one day. You've That's a repeated statement. I think I think you said that before. That's a testament to uh you know how earnest the statement it is. I mean I read that and I was like this guy just covered this topic better than anybody in journalism and he is the biochem professor at Cornell University. So that says a lot about your effort and maybe about where you know the mainstream media was going at the time and now we know where they are. They're in the [ __ ] can in last place. Um because all the citizen journalists and Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson are at the top of the news media heap now and it looks like it's going to stay that way.
Yeah. I was just watching Dave Smith and Tucker Carlson uh put the rant meter right to the right to 11.
Yeah. And uh and uh and uh and uh it it's it the the powers that be are are really terrified because the citizen journalist and the citizen podcaster that we're just saying we're not listening to you anymore. And this year was short for a whole host of reasons. I almost didn't write it. I I you I really I actually quit writing several times.
Oh man.
Well, the problem is I had pro I had problems with my computer. I was in theexics. My wife wiped out her computer. She got mine. She wiped that out. Um, don't ask don't make me explain that. Um, I was working with some 5-year-old Dell that I didn't know how to do [ __ ] on. And and on top of that, then I did the Tucker interview and uh and then the Zionists went at me like there was no tomorrow. And I was pretty punch drunk by the end of that experience. And so uh but I had to counter those guys. Yeah. So, I had I I was going to just write a blog, just say, "Screw it. I'm going to get, you know, someone to post a blog for me." Um, but then I realized that I really also had to write the the financial section, too, because it it feels to me like we're we're really finally staring into the the abyss. And I think I made a pretty good case that um the markets have reached the ultimate insanity. And so, they can get more insane, but they can't get that much more insane in my opinion. That's interesting. So, let's go let's go towards the markets now. You know, we've got the good we've got a good background under our belt and I have a list of topics that I want to hear your opinion on that I've been dying to hear your opinion on.
You could just drop a dime and call me.
You know what? You know why I didn't Dave? Because number one, you know that when you and I speak on the phone, those are 4hour conversations, not not four minutes. And because now we can make it into content and everybody can enjoy it. Right.
Right.
So, let's start with this, man. Let's start with this. When I saw the All-In podcast earlier this year, which I'm a big fan of, David Saxs talked about the Trump boom in the economy where we've got the benefit of more rate cuts, cheap gas, tax cuts, and better economic news and we start seeing incremental GDP growth. Factor fiction, the Trump boom. What are your thoughts, Dave?
Uh, it's actually a complicated. I like the Allen podcasts, too. I I think they kind of show their biases.
Yeah.
Um, we all do, but I think they have that Silicon Valley mentality that they can't shake.
Um, it could be a Trump boom. I do not believe it's going to be on a time scale even remotely matches what Trump would like and what his supporters would like. So, I I think Trump could turn out to be a transformational president. He could in so many ways, right? There's there's so many way he could he could he could crash us right into a bridge abovement, too. Um,
I do not I think I think someone said it really well to me actually. They said it's going to be a Oh, it was Brendan Ike. I was on a Twitter space with Brendan Ike and and he said it's a multi-generational change and and I think that's correct. So, I think I think Trump can start it and you know 50 years from now they may look back and say, you know, Trump's moment in time was really a a fork in the road.
Yeah.
And some thinks it'll be a bad one, some think it'll be a good one. I'm hoping it'll be a good one, but we're not going to re reshore, you know, big industry on any sort of rational time scale. That's impossible. I've been involved in renovations of a of a floor of a chem building. It takes two years.
Yeah. Yeah. No, that's fair. That's fair. That that, you know, the things that he's doing are going to take a while to pan out. I thought it was interesting just recently that how his sort of, you know, approval rating was tanking and the administration came out with like five jabs all for Main Street. You know what I mean? Like he capped credit card rates, RFK turned over the food pyramid. They limited the number of uh mandatory vaccines from 72 to 11. And you're like, "Wow." Like, oh. And then they plucked Maduro out of Caracus in a sweatuit.
You know what I mean? Right.
And and they're threatening to, you know, sell all of that gas onto the markets.
Um, what do you think of that, by the way, while while we just touch on that? What What was the Venezuela thing all about in your mind?
Well, I don't think it's drugs because I don't there there's many drugs in Venezuela. I don't think it's cuz he I I was really bothered by all the the reasons people were using to defend extracting him. I'm going, that's appalling. It's not because he's a dictator. There's dictators all over the world. Um, it's it I I actually do don't believe it's the oil. Um, believe it or not, I don't I think it's um I think it's possibly the oil in a defensive strategy. If I if I had to guess, I would say that what Trump has done, let's give him let's give him maximum possible credit. And again, I can make a case that Trump's total total boob at this point or a rock star. I can go I can cover the entire range depending on who I'm talking to if you want.
Um, let's give him the rockar.
Um, I think Trump could be saying look we are we are not only um heading for a multipolar world but but we have to get ahead of it. And so uh I saw a great map where someone basically took a crayon and circled the entire western hemisphere and wrote Trump. northern region of the rest of the world wrote Putin and southern more southern region re wrote G and it was in crayon you know I mean it was just and and I go that pretty much sums it up so Trump
Could be if if you look at what Trump's doing in that people think are psychotic if if you put it in the context of a Monroe doctrine 2.0 some people call it 3.0 I know there's some period of time where we kind of did it since Monroe.
Um, he he basically looks like he's circling the Western Hemisphere and just trying to rein it in. And and in that sense, if he's doing that, I'm okay with it. I I I think I think going after Venezuela for the oil, we should just buy it.
It's not the drugs. They don't they don't move. Serious drugs and cigar boats. you know, uh, you know, a cigar boat holds about enough drugs for Hunter Biden, right? So,
Um, and and so, so it it really,
Yeah, good weekend at Bernie's. Um,
And so I I think it is a Western Hemisphere get your paws off move. And that's what Greenland is. And I just saw Mark Carney talk about deep state. Holy moly. Um, Mark Carney just saying we defend Denmark and Greenland. And Trump's the fifth president to talk about taking Greenland, so this isn't even new news.
Yeah.
Yeah. I still have Greenland on my noise cancellation policy. And until I'm forced to figure out what's going on there, I don't even want to know the story. It It hasn't cost hasn't cost me any money. Not knowing thus far sounds like another Gulf of America story to me. That is utterly meaningless and I'm not going near it.
Right. But um but I again it it doesn't make sense that Denmark owns it either. That's the funny thing. No fair.
So so so if you're going to make it a protectorate, you say, "Well, okay, we got a superpower. We got a bunch of happy cloggers."
Yeah.
The superpower gets to take it if it wants. I don't think we should be doing it that way. I think it's possible it's going to be like the Louisiana Purchase where the French knew they were going to eventually lose it, so they sold it be before it was of no value to them. That's interesting. Interesting take. I want to hear your take on uh Trump's brawl with Jerome Powell. Does this does the DOJ subpoena have anything to do with rates or is it really the thing that has to do with Powell's involvement of the federal renovation? Like what are your thoughts on that, Dave?
I don't have a strong opinion. They've been brawling. I don't Yeah, it just fine. It's it I don't I want the Fed to raise rates. Let's put it though. Let me just put it that way.
Why so? Why so? Let me hear it. I mean I mean to go ahead. I don't want to take words out of your mouth. Tell me why you want the Fed to raise your
There people want to put them back in. Um I I I've gotten in arguments with people and I think my argument is unassalable. They're talking about home prices being out of reach of the young generation. Right. So the young generation has gotten humped pretty badly. First of all, they had to put up with the boomers as parents. Um then then they they got sold a bill of goods about spending a fortune to go to college and it doesn't matter what you major in, you'll just do fine. And that now they owe a fortune. And and it looks to me I I really make a case which I think is a good case that that um that the the rapid rise in debt starting around 08 was monetary policy. It wasn't even about college. Um they were liqufying the banking system with one and a half trillion dollars worth of money.
Um so the boomer so so the young generation comes out. They're working as baristas. They're not getting jobs. Things suck. They've been told the men have been told life that they're they're the problem, right? They they've been told that if they really want to be cool, they got to cut off their dicks, right? There's a good one. Um and and so now the men are a broken generation of men. Um and men are men are tricky. You you need men to be strong and powerful and protective and and a and a hunter and at the same time not beat the [ __ ] out of your wife.
And it's a it's a very it's a knife edge. So the women have to find that sort of Game of Thrones type male that at the same time is not going to hurt her, you know, going to help her.
Um, and then now we got soy boys. We created a generation of soy boys. It's not their fault. We did it. The cell phone did it.
Yeah. And all of a sudden, they want to give them a 50-year mortgage, which means they're just renters.
Right. Forever.
They go, you know, when the 30-year mortgage was invented during the Great Depression.
Is that right? Yeah. Same thing.
So, so here's what they say. They say got to lower rates. So, what's going to happen? Lowering rates supposedly is going to make housing cheap enough for the the soy boys. Sorry, I I don't I I support you guys, but it just came out. Um, uh, not you guys. Um, and uh, they want to lower the rates so that the the boomers can sell off their houses without taking a hit to the next generation. And then when the rates finally do, when the free market finally price discovers the bond market, they're going to get [ __ ] again.
They're toast. So, so, so, so what you want, you got two ways to make housing more affordable. One is to drop the costs of the interest. The other is to to drop the cost of the house.
Yeah.
We should let the housing market correct.
Yeah.
And then they'll get to buy they should get to buy assets cheaper. They should get to buy houses cheaper. They should get to buy food cheaper.
Yeah.
So, we really need a deflationary flavored. I hate to say deflationary because what's deflation, right? I don't know. Uh, we certainly don't need an inflationary world for them. They need to be a and and if if if we do get like a big correction and housing and everything, they will then get to put their hardearned tips from being a barista into into assets that are that'll return 8% instead of right now the markets are priced to return two and a half%. I mean, it's a disaster. It's a disaster.
Yeah. They're they're they they can't they you know, they they have to buy into a stock market that's trading absurd prices. everything they try to buy into is literally gone from a price perspective. And that's something that I agree. I'm glad that you have this awesome generational awareness about it. I know that you have a young son. I have three three kids. So, the whole thing is, you know, always top of mind as to how this is going to go for the next generation. And I think that's really important about rate raising. I'd love to see that. That is a great thing. I would love to see the correction in the housing market via them raising rates which will at least combat the inflation that we're seeing a little bit. But it's hard if we don't get headline inflation. Trump is not going to let rates up. That that's just the prem my trading premise for since Trump has been in office. You know what I mean?
What if what if the bond market defies him?
That's my risk. That's my
No, that's what you're that's what I'm rooting for.
Yeah. No, I understand that. I mean, that's for an equity market bull. That's my risk is a dislocating bond market. Well, you're a trader, too, though.
Yeah. Yeah. True.
So, you can you can go in and out. You dart in and out like a like a hockey skate hockey skater, right? Um
The the um Yeah. And and I think actually the Fed might be terrified of lowering rates and having the bond market defy them and then we'll find out that they're basically uh powerless now.
So, I think the Fed's afraid to do the experiment.
I agree. I think that the political pressure is such that pushing them away from doing the experiment. But, you know, I don't have a good answer. I don't I don't know how this is going to transpire, but I just think that Trump is going to get rates lower come hell or high water. And as long as there's no headline inflation of four or 5%, we're going to be okay. And then if there is inflation of four or 5%, but we also have 5% GDP growth, we're also going to be okay. So that's the bear that's the argument on the 5% GDP growth.
Yeah, I may be and I don't know and put it this way. I you are never going to get me to argue with you or anybody else about the economy. I will argue to you about the markets though and and the markets are definitely perceiving a switch from a weaker first half of the year to a stronger idea for the like the recessionista bros are out of business right now.
Yeah. But if you pull the AI developmental costs out, the economy goes flatter in a pancake.
That's the next thing I was going to ask you about. Let's jump right into it. AI the most important development since fire or dude, the biggest bubble I've ever seen. Where are you?
Well, I put AI is not as important as the internet and I put the internet not as important as electricity and I put electricity not as important as fire. So, I like that.
Uh, so we're sliding downhill. So, um, so, so I I do think AI, as as a friend of mine said on stage with Mike Green, he said, you know, you couldn't have imagined the internet. You could not have imagined it in your wildest dreams in 2000. You could not have imagined what it would become. It didn't stop the NASDAQ from dropping 83%.
Good point. Now Gundlock said that made the electricity argument which I've really glombmed on to. I nothing like electricity. Look at electricity when that came in. He said the electricity stock soared. They peaked in 11 1911.
Which means they peaked before electricity even got started. You barely had appliances in 1911.
Yeah. And and
And so then the question is it possible all the AI guys who think they're going to get richer and [ __ ] on AI, their gains are in the rearview mirror maybe. Couldn't agree more.
And I think the big losses are going forward. I think I think the AI is going to be a catastrophe for some companies. I think there's about seven companies that are going to battle to the death and there'll be one punch drunk idiot sort of stammering along surviving it maybe, but but you've got these high high profit margin way too high historically high profit margin companies which should be regressing their profit margins uh naturally. um low capeex. What does Microsoft have to do? Right? They just sell software, right? Low capeex, high profit margin have now become low profit margin, high capeex.
So all of a sudden now that they're got they're they're building out an infrastructure and and the the G they say the GDP without without the infrastructure is flat.
Well, let me let me ask you this question. Have if you build a gas station, have you created any wealth? And I would argue no.
Yeah.
Because if you just then let it sit there, your wealth comes after you build the gas station. You start selling gas.
Right. Right.
And so so the it's an upfront cost. If you build a warehouse and then put nothing in it, you've just squandered the so so AI is going to cost what a trillion a year or something. I it's just going to be an unbelievable amount of money. And it's got the life expectancy of what I refer to as a sule. and and it's and and it's going to have to be replaced completely. The servers and software, it's going to change so much. And it's so damn expensive. You do you make one of those AI videos, h how many goddamn light bulbs could you light with the energy of an AI video, right?
It's amazing. It's amazing. We were just considered, we were just concerned about like leaving the heat on on our house too high because we were like burning too many trees down and now all of a sudden AI comes along and it's like, yeah, we can use 10 times the power and let's go, you know, we got to go find it. It's uh it's really, you know, it's amazing, David. I love hearing you.
Expensive.
Yeah, you can. You know what I love though is that you kind of confirm my thesis because this is one sector of the market that I am not bullish at all on. You know, last year, um, we had a huge sent.
Have you dug into Altman? Have you dug into Altman? You know who Altman is?
Lightly. Tell me what you were gonna say. What? Why? What? What should I know about him?
He's Shamwow guy. That's all he is. He's not a tech guy.
Yeah.
He's Shamwow guy. You go back through his I saw a great 10-minute video that went through his history. He's a Shamwow guy. He's a pitch man. He's myillow.com.
Oh, okay. Yeah.
He's just a guy says, "Look, change the dial from slice to dice and look at what you got." You know?
Yeah. Yeah. A little bit. And he's not he's not the visionary. He is sold as a visionary. He's not the visionary. He is just the pitch man.
Yeah. That I could believe. That I could believe. But what I love
Means we're getting scammed.
Yeah. Right. But what I love about the timing of this conversation and you know having the same view as you is that I look at my year-to-ate leaderboard which I stare at 24/7 365 and the whole top of it is natural resources up double digit percentages. And this year so far, software down 8%, cloud storage down six and a half percent, Nvidia down 3% on the year. Like, whoa, man. You know what I mean? Like, the tech investor is getting tested right here. And it really feels like we're going to have an entire year where people pile out of tech and into natural resources. What do you think of that idea?
Uh, uh, I I it's happening. Um, I don't know if you noticed, but I I put a tweet from something like March of 2025 into my year in review and I said I said I'm down today, which makes me happy because the markets are up. And I think at some point being inversely correlated with the markets will pay handsomely.
Yeah.
And so last year, I got to brag. Um, last year if you take away fixed income, which matter how you cut it, you made about 4%. You can talk about the value of the bonds and stuff, but it kicked out about 4%. Um, and my house, which you've seen, I believe.
No, I haven't been in your house. How many your home?
Oh, that's right. Um, it's it's it's a it's a $20 million view. Um, it's it's three times more than I need, but makes me very happy, makes my wife happy. Um, so I have to take that out. It's a risk asset, and it's a commitment of capital that's bigger than a house should be. Y
But it's amazing. You take those away, which I don't control much of. Um, my portfolio last year did 65%.
Whoa.
And and and this year.
So you're in the debasement trade then, right?
I'm in the debasement trade apparently. I I don't know what to call it, but uh it turns out that this year um this year I'm up 13%.
Yeah, exactly. That's what I mean. That's what's going on. And you know that rhymes with gold and silver. That rhymes with silver being up 30%.
I'm taking credit for platinum.
Yeah, you had a good call there. You.
I nailed it. I didn't size it like Rock and Miller, but I made the call right.
Yeah, good for you, man. You deserve it.
And it's based on fundamentals, by the way. You guys who are listening, look at the the above ground platinum supply is at present price worth about $6 billion. Mhm.
The rate of consumption is such that at the present rate of production, which is deficit, we're going to run out of platinum in two and a half years.
How do you not like the metal? How do you not like the bullish case for platinum?
Bull case there. Bull case in uranium. How about the deficit that we're looking at in uranium? Can we switch gears to that real quick, Dave? I wanted to hear your opinion on the uranium trade. I
I'm not smart enough to follow the uranium closely. Part of it is because you have to understand the nuclear power industry and so that guy like Doomsberg would get it and I wouldn't. Um, again in this Twitter spaces with Ike, he said he thinks the um the small reactors are not the solution. He thinks we're going to have to do big reactors, which
I thought we were going the other way. So that gives you an idea how clueless I am. Um, and I I I do have investments in uranium via uh these guys, Garing and Roen Schwag, who I I decided did know what they were talking about and um and and they're very heavy uranium trade small, you know, boutique
Um, fund and um, and I I think it's possibly a good play, but if if the nextg uranium reactors come into play, there is some reason to believe that that they'll be able to take the 4% spent uranium. So when you refine it, you you consume about 4% of it and then it's waste that they can take the 96% and use that. One could make the argument therefore that we'll never have to mine uranium again.
Wow.
And and so you got to pay attention to that and I it could be wrong. I mean, but I I had a long chat with a guy who runs a a reactor, and I I have this funny feeling that that that we may have uranium sitting on on concrete pla slabs with with, you know, sarcophagi
Really?
Containing the fuel of the future. Yeah, it's possible.
With no place to go yet because we haven't built enough big reactors in
We haven't we haven't built the nextg reactors which can supposedly burn it right down to edible.
Right? Wow, that's wild, man. And holy smokes.
But you should check that. I I bet if you're listening to this, do not I'm an organic chemist. Remember, here's here's I You always have to say this not investment advice. I do have investment advice. Don't listen to organic chemists.
Yeah. No, that's totally fair. I mean, you don't have to listen to a trader publication writer either, but we're probably helping people that don't have as much of a direction maybe in their mind as we do, right? Um,
So let me point out one other thing. A lot of people talk about the valuations. First of all, the people who don't you shouldn't listen to. In my opinion, the entire risk of the market is not what Putin does, what Trump does. It's valuation. You you are sitting on top of a a damn avalanche waiting to go. And and and and you'll hear people say, and this frustrates me actually, where they say, "Valuations are ridiculous." I go, "Put a goddamn number on it." Ridiculous could mean 30%. I put 200% on it. See, I'm I'm I'm the other way. I I loved reading your your year review because I love your idea around you cannot inflate your way out of overvaluation.
That's an amazingly important point.
Yes, I agree. I agree. I think that that you know that's that's the argument to my bullcase. You know what I mean? And you can say, you know, death to those that don't pay attention to valuation. And I'll say, you know, if you're not paying attention to valuation, then you missed the whole Nvidia trade. Uh, if you pay attention to valuation, then you miss the whole Nvidia trade. You know, up 178% three years in a row. You know what I mean? So, as a trader, I have to throw valuation out the window and say, where's the money going to go?
And I totally respect that. Yeah. As long as, see, here's the problem, though. You know, you're a trader. I know I'm a value investor guy, right?
Yeah.
There's the people who don't really who have not defined who they are.
Who don't know what stripe they're wearing.
And here's what here's what they're doing. They're really think they're me, but they're acting like you.
Yeah, that might be true.
And that's a problem. So, I watch like I read Fleenstein site and the questions are all about getting in and out of positions.
Yeah.
And I get in and out of position. I started buying gold in 99. I'm thinking about how I'll get out of it eventually.
That's funny.
Um, but I here's the problem I have with if if you analyze what happens in previous secular bare markets, secular bare markets, all 10 das of valuation go down. So if you think you can buy energy because it's cheap and be careful, they say it's cheap compared to Nvidia. Everything's cheap compared to Nvidia, right?
Um, but all 10 valuations go down. And that's true from the past. Now think about with the passive investing now where the only option you have is to hit sell on the entire market. By definition, all 10 valuation deciles will go down. And so I'm waiting and I I may never enter the equity market in a big way for the rest of my life if you are correct and it just keeps going up. I I've never seen an asset class get way overvalued that didn't find its way back to cheap. Never.
Never happened.
No, I know. You know, it seems to me though that, you know, the game that we're playing here in, you know, a debt-based economy is inflate our way out come hell or high water. You know what I mean? And if if the if if the Fed with guidance can't inflate our way out of here, we're going to dig deeper into the Fed toolbox to
So what happened in the 70s when investors finally realized that owning equities that had a relatively shitty return were a bad thing to own when inflation was 17%.
Yeah. They got a wakeup call.
They got they 14 years of a 75% loss. You not only lost 75% of place adjusted, you spent 14 years out of what what's an investment lifetime? Maximum 45.
Cuz you got to start going to safe harbor.
Yeah.
Right. If you start investing at 25, you go 45, you're now 70, right?
You got to start buying guy. You don't even buy green bananas anymore, right? You got to start You got to start You got to start going You're thinking about how much annuities cost and things like that.
Yeah. And so so you get about 45 years. If 15 of those 45 in your going forward are lost.
You got you got a problem.
Yeah, I know. And you know, for the trader, I still, you know, I I understand that we look at things differently. And I, you know, I'm very aware of what I call the the Sir JJ axiom, which is there's no such thing as risky securities, only risky prices, right? and and buying into the equity market here, you are buying in at risky prices like for the most part of anything that you're buying into now. So, as long as you have a game plan for buying into things that you know are at risky prices, if you got a game plan to manage that, you can trade in this market. If you don't have a game plan on how to manage that, you're going to get wiped out one day. So,
But how how is Dave going to compete against Tony in that market?
Oh, you mean you have a tough time, right? Until
Well, you're going to kick my ass in that market.
Yeah. Well, until things all go right for you in one year and you make it all back. You know what I mean? Like,
Well, so the guy there's a guy named Ed McQuary who looked at 200 years of investing. That's a long time frame. He said he basically said that if you take out the 20 years following World War II where financial repression was profound. They had interest rates that were something like 12% below inflation. They just squashed us like a bug to deal with the World War II debt somehow. Right? He says, "If you take out those 20 years, bonds and stocks tied." Period. That's what Graham and Dodd said. They said, you know, and you know what happens is you say stocks have a risk premium. You know, it's a everyone hears the word premium and I go, "Did you miss the risk part?"
Yeah. Yeah. It's
Did you miss that? Every once in a while, you get your ass. Oh, that you had to have seen the chart with the the red lines going across it where I point out that if you own the top five times in the 20th century, you you came back to that same price between 40 and 75 years later, you treaded water for 40 to 75 YEARS. FIVE times in the 20th century. Is anybody anybody ready for that?
Yeah. No, it's a good point, man. That's a good point. So if you're a trader, you'll win. You go long on the way up, you go short on the way down. Unless it's the Nikkay. I got into George Noble one day in the Twitter spaces where he said, "Well, you could short the NK." And I go, "No, you couldn't."
You know what it's like shorting a stock, a market that takes 15 or 20 years to find a bottom. Yeah.
You get killed. You get killed. You need a You need a freef fall. Yeah.
Then you make money shorting.
Yeah. That's it. Maybe that's why it's not my game, you know? It's not any I I don't I What DO YOU DO? WHAT DO YOU DO? What are you going to Let's say the markets really seem to turn. Like today, for example, my portfolio, the the the NASDAQ is down is down uh uh like one and a half percent, something like that. And and my portfolio is up three and a half%.
So, you're in the debasement trade, man. You know,
I'm in the debasement trade, right? Um so so so let's say you decide that the market really has turned. There's a there's a there the the paradox that's so mind-boggling to me is there's some moment I call it 2:03 p.m. some Thursday afternoon where the market hits an all-time high and and it is about to go into a secular bad period that can be very very it could be multi-deade.
The British Empire took 50 years to go down the tubes, right? multi-deade and and and and and and here you are. According to Price, you've reached maximum optimism at the very instant where there's zero reason for optimism.
I disagree, but I UNDERSTAND IT.
WELL, IF IF YOU'RE AT THE TOP, there's zero reason. By definition, history showed the guys who owned the 29 top
Were maximum optimism, zero justification.
Yeah. Yeah. No. Well, see, I mean, I feel like I feel like there's justification for optimism now. I mean, Dave, I I look at the world.
Well, then it's at the top. Then it's I don't know, but I look I look at the world like, you know, we are coming out of a repressive 20 years in American history at some level, you know what I mean? where we, you know, the whole all of the West kind of, you know, de-industrialized at some level and, you know, culturally the changes that all took place here in the last, you know, that last period of time. It leads me to believe that the things that Trump is doing now are kind of more liberating than they are, okay, we're putting a we're going to put some clamps on this and slow something down. What they're slowing down is the revolution to take this country apart is what it feels like.
I don't know. It looks like it's peeling apart to me, though. Yeah. I mean, yeah. It looks like they're losing their fight.
Yeah. It's It's a little nasty. You know what I mean? Like, it's wild because we've got such a polarizing president right now. You know what I mean? And I think what's even more wild about it, and I'd love to hear your view on this, is I think that people's, you know, opinions of Trump are morphing like real time. And the story is changing, right? It went from make America great again to wait a second, wait a second, how about America first? Right? And I feel like that movement like right around Charlie Kirk's death is all kind of
Being born.
That's that's a thinly veiled anti-Israel movement, right?
Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. That's that's fair. That's what Yeah. Exactly. That's what it is.
And and that's why I didn't write about Charlie Kirk because the Zionist kicked the crap out of me this year. I didn't need to pick another fight. I And then some I've been studying Satanism and and trafficking and stuff for three years. And someone said, "Well, why didn't you write about that?" I said, "Let me see if I got this right. You want me to dust myself off and stagger down the road after fighting this the rabid Zionist and pick a fight with the Satanists,
Right? And the pedophiles. Are you kidding?
AND THE PEDOPHILES, RIGHT? WHO BY THE way are presidents of countries and stuff. I think I'll pass on that one for time being, right?
Couldn't agree more, man. Couldn't agree more. We see what happens to those that are speaking out against it and everybody gets told, right? Everybody's Yeah. Everybody's taking a beating, man. So you that that's when that's the system that like as
Dave Smith pointed out once you see it, you can't unsee it. I so I was agnostic on that whole story for years and and sympathetic to being surrounded by enemies, right? You can't not. And then a Canadian intel or analyst, I should say, you cannot understand the world until you understand Israel. Period.
Yeah. And so he gave me some reading material and it's like, "Oh god, you've polluted my brain." Um, and and that's that that sort of triggered it. So in any event, so I'm not anti-Semitic. I'm not even anti-Israel per se. Netanyahu should be taken out of the kneecaps. Oh boy. That that boy should be dealt with.
There's a controversial topic that I'm not touching on this podcast. Okay. You should clip that sucker out. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, no. Actually, we'll just make a note that we went around it. That's fine. Let's switch gears real quick. I want to hear what you think about Mayor Zoran Mdani in New York City. Should the residents of New York be scared or are we in a blowoff top of liberalism in New York?
Uh, I Mandami doesn't trouble me as much as some people because I believe that he will be told by very powerful forces what to do. Yeah, that's fair. And as a consequence, you know, you say anything you got to say to get elected. So he's he's a total lunatic to get elected. What is scary is that that total lunatic persona got elected.
Yeah. So that tells you I I and and if you look at the demographics who voted for him, it's bizarre. Yeah. Right. It's not just the lunatic left who voted for the guy. So So it's really people that what they're really saying and John Stewart said this brilliantly. Someone asked him if he wanted to run for president and he said, "What you're asking me to be is is to be the none of the above." M. And and M whatever Mr. M um, he he is the none of the above. That that that's that's the equivalent of electing Trump. You're just saying up yours. Just up yours. We're gonna we're gonna stick a goddamn bizarro Marxist in there.
Yeah. Just the [ __ ] you because because we have had enough. This this the a median person I you never say average. The median person is pissed off. And here's the problem. Here's the real goddamn problem. If I am right and we are near a secular top and someone said someone I I think it was Marty Bent said the the other day said he said well I don't think the little guys will be hurt thinking that they don't own assets and therefore and I said no, they always get hurt, they always get clobbered, they get crushed right. And and and and and if we're at a secular top, remember the secular top in 2000, we thought the world was had fundamentally changed up. It was just amazing what we're looking at 1929. Amazing what we're looking at 19667. Amazing. What we're looking at the Nikk We were sending management teams in 1989 to find out how the Japanese were running their economy so brilliantly, not noticing it was a goddamn credit bubble, right? And and and and so so um, so so it was euphoria.
Yeah. You sense euphoria? Yeah, a little bit. I mean, you know, it's a mixed bag. You know, I don't I don't sense it. I I no, I mean, I won't say that I sense euphoria, but I do sense that that that there's still people hanging on to the fact that we are like chipping away at this, you know, government control thing or at least we're we're kind of socializing the idea that everybody knows what's going on now, right? I so I think that that eye opening is a very big deal.
But but is there any evidence that us knowing? Let's look at the Soviet Union. They knew they were getting humped. Did it stop the Soviet Union from being in the Soviet Union? No, it's a good point. Yeah. Yeah, you can. They they they they're lying. We know they're lying. They know we know they're lying. And they just keep lying.
Yeah, that's true. So, I I don't I don't see I I can be optimistic about Trump, but I think the time scales are wrong. I think we got to go through the valley of death. I think I think his his his various economic moves economically, I'm mixed on him, but I think the idea of bringing stuff back on shore is important.
Yeah. If if you try to do it on short time scales, I don't think it can be done. No, I mean, I would agree with that in the practicality of it. But what I you know, what I like as a as a trader is that he very clearly sent about a dozen bull markets in motion with the admin. You know what I mean? From the metals and mining with the onshoring theme to the uranium miners to.
Do you like the fact that he's do you like the fact the government is dumping money into into private sector like that? Does that does that bother you? No, it doesn't because I feel like they're just getting a jump. And now you can crucify me for on a number of levels, but I feel like they're just supplying the capital upfront that these companies need to raise in order for us to secure our supply chain of critical minerals. And I think that that's the whole game that he's playing. And if he can affect that, he's going to.
So here's the question I have. What's the risk there? What's the Tell me what you think the risk is to that. I think government getting involved in anything is a risk. I mean, yeah, you don't want you don't want MP material into the DMV. No, I agree with that part. Cylindra, you name it. It's just government just makes bad decisions.
Um, and and and and then the question, is there any evidence that there's a shortage of capital? It's slopping all over the market. It it's big money slopping. So, so the question is why why is the market not able to just find the capital to do this? And I'll tell you one of the problems is one of the things he can do quickly, but it can also be reversed quickly if the ding-dongs get back in power is is to cut the the the the cut the uh, the regulations that make it impossible to do these things.
Yeah. Yeah. Now, here's here's there's a great book. I have several books for you. Yeah. Several books. One is is is by Robert Gordon. I can never remember the title, but it's about wealth creation. It's in the title. Robert Gordon. Brilliant book. Brilliant book. The other one there's a guy a guy named Rushir Sharma who talks about uh, what happened to capitalism some title like that rushier Sharma and he talks about two themes. One is he talks about um, about about the mistakes we make by flooding the market with capital, too much capital, way too much. Right. If private equity can buy a companies, destroy them, sell the shell and make money, there's too much capital.
There. That capital's got to be more precious than that. This. So, so they flood the market with too much capital, way too much intentionally, and then and then try to control it through regulations and it doesn't work. So, it find it gets into trouble. It's like releasing a bunch of say, here's the teenagers, give them all the beer they want, but tell them not to drive drunk. Right. Um.
And and and then the second thing is he he talks about bad interventions with good intentions. And he he he goes through these things where he said, "Here's what they did, but here's what actually happened." Yeah. And it's not a screed. It's not some Marxist thing. It he's just saying you what you have to do is not do the dumb [ __ ] up front.
Yeah. And then and therefore, don't give them um, I'm going to be reading books on his history of markets a lot this year. I've read a ton. Yeah. But I'm going to go back to that theme just just to remind myself of the roots of this system. Yeah. And I I think it's I think we're toast. I mean, I think we're in big big big big trouble.
My fear is that it's, it's, you know, putting placing value where markets otherwise wouldn't. And so that that there is the risk there to me, but at the same time, he's trying to get something done strategically for a bigger picture. And so I'm trying to remain optimistic that he's not going to fall flat on his face, you know, that he's not going to build something that is a complete fraudulent failure while he's over here pointing out all the fraud and failure in the old system. That's what I'm hoping for anyway. You know what I mean? As a trader, I can have I can see where one or the other can work out and we'll see how it goes for the markets. That kind of thing.
So So here's a question I like to ask people. Imagine this is a bit of a fictional experiment, but not completely. Imagine that you could buy a US Treasury, 30-year Treasury, and there's two rules. Two rules. One is that, well, first of all, you have no idea what's going to happen for 30 years. You have you you can you can worry. You can and and it's just a complete unknown. The odds of being paid back are, I think, are 90 something% high. But but but here's what you can't do. You can't sell it. So, you're it's like you're signing up for an annuity or something, right? You can't sell it. And the second thing is you can't hedge it, which you would hedge everything right away, but you can't hedge it. So you're saying, look, what would it cost you to buy a US Treasury? What interest rate would you demand with these unknown? Saying, look, you got to hold it for 30 years. What interest rate would you demand?
I'm not smart enough to figure that out, man. I I man. Would it be under 10? Oh, yeah. Yeah. You don't think inflation could destroy you in the next 30 years? I I think it could. And I think that the Fed is wildly aware of that. And when I watched them put 9% headline inflation back in the bottle while the inflation never went away, I was in awe. And I said, "Oh, okay." Like that's the power of controlling monetary policy. You know, I know I know my inflation is up 30% a year and you guys figured out how to tell me and the market that it's only 2 and a half%. So there.
I think the Fed is [ __ ] I think it's I think it's a dozen bureaucrats who don't know what they're doing. It's gets scary sometimes, you know. Well, so but but therefore, so this is why I think the Fed's afraid of doing something aggressive because I think they don't think they'll control. So the Fed's worst nightmare is to try to intervene and fail because then we'll know they don't have anything left.
Yeah. And they don't want to find themselves there. Yeah. It's amazing, you know, but that that's that's the thing about when you control monetary policy, you're never out of options. Like I'm I'll never be a believer that the Fed is got their the Fed is handcuffed, the Fed is trapped. Like I will not even give into that kind of thinking because I've seen I've seen them Houdini their way out of a dozen predicaments that were way worse than Chinese water torture.
Okay, let me tell you the last 45 years of recency bias why it'll stop. Okay, go ahead. Okay, so 1981 valuations were lowest in history. You you could be a [ __ ] and make money investing starting in 1981. You could buy anything in 1981 and make money. You could buy bonds. You could buy stock. you buy anything. China was just coming out of the dark ages. For the next 45 years, they sold labor for pennies. Russia, various godforsaken places in the world, sold resources to get capital. The boomer, the demographics, the boomers, they were entering the workforce. They brought their wives with them this time. So, it was a phenomenal demographic situation. And as Buffett says, the whole enchilada, the entire story is about interest rates. They were at 17. Over the next 45 years, they went to zero. Buffett said the the secret to a secular bear versus bull market is the direction of long-term rates. Not the the level, the direction. For 45 years, I went from 17 to zero almost linearly.
Now, which of those are going to repeat? And the answer is none. Now, here's what happened. Now, I do not believe valuations trend. Period. I believe valuations, they can get way out of whack. If you want to say valuations can trend up uh uh uh sustainably, then you have to assume that the that the returns on those cash returning assets are going down sustainably.
So if you buy a if you buy a Toyota, you buying a good car, you pay 140,000, you're going to get killed on resale. Mhm. Okay. So the bottom line is I believe that the valuations being 200% over historical valuation will regress. It's over some number of years and I don't know I don't know the path I don't know how it's going to get there, but it always has now. So so the problem is over those 45 years valuations shouldn't trend, they should just go up and down and for 110 years they just channel, they just went up and down and up and down and up and down 110 years through the 20th century and then they left the channel in about 1994. And then they never looked back. Now, over the the the 45 years, they they they expanded, which they're not supposed to do sustainably, according to what I just said. They expanded 4% annualized compounding 4% a year for 45 years. What kind of tailwind is that? That is 45 years of recency bias. That's not That is the people who remember when they weren't doing this are dead now. Right. Yeah.
And so, so, so, so what happens if the next 45 years they compound at negative 4% to get back to cheap? It will be a living hell. Yeah. Yeah. Well, they're never going to do that. It'll put a lot of pressure on the whole system. They They will. Unless you want to assume equities will never get cheap again. Unless you want to make that assumption, which I think is a stupid assumption. I don't know when, I don't know how, but it's to say they'll never get there.
Yeah. No, it's fair. You have to you have to be ready. It's fair to keep it's fair to keep something like that in the back of your mind when trading, investing, the whole thing. It's totally fair to know where you are. And I do that by understanding that I am buying risky securities at risky prices when I go into the markets like this. And for me, luckily as a trader, that's been paying off. And like we have different strategies and we look at the world differently. But it was great to hear your entire view on this whole thing. Now, I don't mean to cut us off, but I do want us to close in one hour of a podcast, and I still have a few things to ask you about.
Fire away, lightning round. This is this is a quick thing I ask. I'm talking to my daughter who is a senior at University of South Carolina, and I happen to ask her about one of her friends, and I'm like, "What is she majoring in?" And she goes, "Oh, she majors in chat GPT." What what what effect has AI had on the college student? Is is this pre prevalent? Is this something that's a flash in the pan? Is it here to stay that it's part of education now? What are your thoughts on that from your perspective, Dave?
Well, I don't have hard data. I do know that when I get an email from a kid that was written by Chat GPT, I I don't read it. Um, I I I I've also found that I there's articles that I think I ought to like and I don't and I don't quite know why. And it finally hit me. You know how how chat GPT art was cute at first, now it's soulfree and you you'd never want to see it again, right? Yeah, totally. What a great point about us.
My concern is that what you're reading and you think it ought to be a good article and it sucks is because it's very sterile. It's it's AI written like Yeah. Like you go to Zero Hedge Market Ear. Yeah. Do you read those? No, man. You might. They're they're they're short term, so I don't like them. But but they're soulless. They're And so they're missing some they're missing Howard Mark saying something to us. They're missing human divinity.
That's right. And and you don't even necessarily know it, but your subconscious is picking up on it. So So here's the problem. The kids now have access to something that allows them that will do their homework for them, that will write their papers for them. The question is, is this like us getting a calculator which we survive? That's what I mean. That's what I mean. That's what I'm curious about. Yeah.
But the problem is my experience and I know a lot of people who who share this view is that writing is thinking. Now you could put out your newsletter and use chat GPT, right? It could write the whole thing for you. How would your intellectual development proceed under those conditions? The answer is it wouldn't. Zero. Right. Right. Zero. So you would become a [ __ ] And by the way, by the way, someone uh I I Chad I I had this epiphany about the market. So, so if you take a a an an a a chat GPT and you you put in information like someone wrote 0 to nine by hand and recursively had it recreate them and and by going over and over and over they all became garbage and they all became identical.
Yeah. And so here's the problem. What if markets are the same? What if markets are taking computers taking cues from computers taking and they're generating slop? Yeah. So now we've got a market that's valued based on slop. At some point when the boomers start retiring and Michael Green starts looking pretty correct and all of a sudden it could just it will be unlike any period in history. And what that means I don't know. But I think the kids are at risk of going brain dead educationally.
Yeah. Yeah. I love it. I I couldn't agree more. And what I what I also love about I that I also see in the next generation, most likely from my son, is a complete rejection of the tech stuff. He like does he's like had it with all of the stuff like like all of the social stuff, the anxiety, the participating, the habit to be online, having to be on your phone. He's like a throwback kid. So, it's kind of I don't know. It's for me it's I don't know. It's encouraging that there's a little that there's real tangible push back against this whole pivot into everything that thinks for you and does everything for you. So, that was an interesting read on that. I appreciate that. I really appreciate that. And I don't know where it's going either, but it's going to have to change. It's going to have to change.
They're going to put the the schools are going to get rid of phones completely. That would be amazing, man. You know, well, some are some are. I mean, it's already happening. So, schools are saying not just you can't take it out. They're saying you you can't have phone in this school. Period.
Man, I like it. You know, Dave, this this plays right into it. I just went to a Cornell lacrosse alumni um mentoring type of dinner here in New York City and the whole team the whole team was there with Coach Buk and the coolest part about the event which was the best event that we've had in a while was not one kid on the team even had their cell phone visible. All college student, all NCAA Division One athletes, right? They wouldn't even take it. They were obviously this is a coach's rule, but they weren't even taking.
Well, I was about to say that. So, so here's here's the problem. Our athletic director, I was chatting with him one day, and he told me that Syracuse basketball graduated one kid in nine years. Oh, God. Now, here's the problem. I think coaches owe it to their athletes to raise them. Yeah. We their parents hand them over at 18 and we got to get them to adulthood. And I I think the coaches who really cared about the development of their of their athletes matter. So I think Syracuse for example, I don't care what they study. They should have plumbing courses up there. They should have carpentry courses up there. They shouldn't they should graduate, right? When we bring in students who are under represented, who are not ready for Cornell. Cornell, you know, Cornell is a meat market, right? Cornell is will grind you to dust if you're not careful because it's hardly and and and if you bring them in and you destroy them, you've achieved nothing. You you've you've not achieved any social engineering, nothing. So you have to find a way for them when you get them here to not fail.
Yeah. And and so so you have Africana studies and [ __ ] like that. You got to have that stuff, right? You bring in athletes, you put them in a dorm, they never open up another textbook. Those kids are gonna end up swilling woolite in the alley before they're done. Remember that Woody Allen movie? Yeah, I agree with you. I tend to agree with that that theory. That's for sure, man. Well, it gets a little hairy. I'm dying to see how it plays out, but it's going to take a long, long time before it does. So, um, real quick, last thing I want to ask you, Dave, we're heading into the spring. What's going on up in Ithaca this spring? What are you thinking about? What's on your mind? What do you got planned? Anything fun?
Uh, nothing planned. Um, I'm looking forward to seeing how Cornell lacrosse looks. Go Goldstein's son. Timmy Goldstein's son. Yeah, that's my teammate, man. Ryan is a good friend of mine. He and I are That kid is very interested in financial markets. He and I talk about them all the time, and I'm really excited that he is a pre-season candidate.
Hey, did you ever play with the Rusty Red up in Lake Placid? Did you ever go up there and do that? No. All my friends would. Oh, you should have done. I know. I missed that. I missed that bus for a number of different things that were going on at the time. But the Lake Placid team is that team is that group is still together. You know what I mean? My friend Joe Lizio. It's like it's like a fraternity. It is a fraternity. There is an actual rusty red wine that my friend Joe Lizio who owns a vineyard started creating which is really pretty badass. It's got the rusty red lacrosse logo on it and everything. The tradition at Cornell in the lacrosse program is like no other program.
Phenomenal. Phenomenal. It's unbelievable. Something. And we should mention they won the national title last year. The national champions. We should mention that. I think they're going to repeat and I really think that my man Ryan has got a good chance to win the Toarton Trophy. So I'm.
Which which Cornell has an unbelievable number of Tuarton trophy. Do you know the story behind Panel and how he got unnoticed? No. Tell me story. I'm sure I've heard it, but tell me. Panel was supposedly going to go to Quinnipiac and he sent some tapes Yeah. To uh to some big bigger programs. No offense to you Quinnipic guys. Um, and only Tamboni spotted him. And so I was talking to Tamboni and I said, "Did you know he was going to be this good?" And he said, "I knew he was going to be good, but to say I saw that coming, that would be a lie."
Yeah, that's fair. And so so I I watched him as a freshman in practice and stuff and he uh he he had a skill as a freshman that was just he such a tank, too. Such a. He's a tank. He's really a fire hydrant with a stick. Yeah, he is. He's his own brand of attackman. That's for sure. That's very. By the way, so is Cursed. I never noticed how big Cursed was. Yeah. He's a BIG BOY. I SAW HIM IN A SUIT and I'm going, they don't He needs a better tailor. He's bursting out of that suit, right? Sweetheart of a kid. He's all smiles all the time. He's off to a great start in indoor lacrosse as well. I mean, the the cursed family, it. They are for real. You know what I mean? And. Five of them. It's like it's like the Powell family except. Exactly. But to have all kids succeed at such a high level in a sport like that is unheard of. Number one. Number two, it's mathematically impossible, but they're doing it anyway. And so, you give them a lot of credit and you just thank God that the kid came through our program and not to uh Princeton or Yale or something like that.
And to remind people, the Ivy's the Ivy's the year before. So, so, so one year the Ivy's was the only league to lock down. And so, so they lost players. They were allowed to transfer to other programs. So, they lost a bunch of guys. The next year they lost to Maryland in the finals and the only team to stay with Maryland and then the following year they won the title. So, so a coach of the century. Oh, coach of the century. I loved Richie. I thought I, you know, I don't I don't know what it was like to play for him. He might have been a beast. But he was he was a coach's coach though. He was. He was he was that rahrrah type of coach, you know, the kind. Great point. You know what I say about Richie all the time is that he was a motivational speaker before motivational speakers existed, right? Just his. Exactly. You know when I met him? You know when I met him? Tell me. I met him in seventh grade. I was at a lacrosse camp and I thought I was there to learn lacrosse. What I I was eighth grade. Yeah. When I when I was there, I didn't realize it was a meat market. The coaches at this lacrosse camp, Army, Navy, Hopkins, Syracuse, Cornell. Oh, the manliest camp. No, no, no. Richie Moran's Quickstick lacrosse camp that he's had at Cornell for decades, you know.
But, but I think it was his first year at Cornell and he was there and I remember watching the coaches. They were just salivating over the players. They they weren't there to teach us how to play lacrosse. They were there to find the big chunks of meat who they could recruit. It is a big. And um. And and and then I first met the Simmons family, both Roy Simmons Senior and Roy Simmons Jr. when I was four years old. Oh wow. I used to be driven. I used to be driven to a day camp by Roy Simmons Jr. Really? He lived on the same road and he would pick me a couple of us up on route to the camp every day. Holy smokes. That is great. Slugger. His name was Slugger. It was Slugger. That is great. Upstate New York lacrosse lore. I can't think of a better way of ending the podcast than maybe two of my favorite people from the upstate New York area. Roy Simmons Jr., the former Hall of Fame lacrosse coach of Syracuse, and my man Dave Colum of Cornell University's What What School are we calling yours? Is it the Dyson School that you're a part of now? No, no, I'm Arts and Sciences. Oh, arts school of arts and sciences. Excuse me. I forgot that they changed the egg school to the Dyson school. Isn't that right? No, the the egg school is now CS. Oh, CS. That's right. That's the change that I've. They got rid of the name C. They got rid of the egg field. The hotel school is less hotely. Right. Right. Everything's got business. We're the number one provider of Goldman Sachs employees, which included you as I recall. Yeah, I believe it. I believe it. I mean the place the place is a. Did you know Ricky Sherlin by the way? Did you know Rick Sherlin when you were there? I know that name. No, I don't know if we over. He founded your tech. He founded your tech stock. He founded your software group at Goldman. He founded it. You want to be ground level? Founding Goldman software group. Yeah, that's a pretty good accolade. That's a pretty good accolade. Dave, man, you and I I have to cut us off because this is what happens in our phone conversations. The rest the rest of the world gets put aside and you and I start shooting the [ __ ] about everything under the sun. That's why I love you. I appreciate that you speak from the heart. I can't thank you enough for joining us on the Macro Dare Podcast. Tell us where people can follow you if they don't already. Uh, at Twitter, at David Bollum. My pin tweet is my annual year in review. And uh, and if you want to read 17 volumes of them, um, they're going to go they're going to go live at Amazon in in a month. Those will be those will be a great resource for looking back in history one day. That's for damn sure because you've covered everything under the sun better than the media has and I can't thank you enough for that alone. Appreciate it. Dave, signing off. We'll have you back real soon. Thank you. Peace.