Transcription
What's up everyone? It's Called at Money Vest. So, very nice recovery for the markets here, with the NASDAQ pushing up a little bit over 2.6%. We had the S&P 500 also rallying on the day here, up a little bit over 2%, trading back up to over 5,600. And the Dow Jones pushing up over 1.6%, back up to almost 41,500 points here. So, an absolute incredible rally intraday, as there was a lot of buying pressure. There was a lot of technical rebound, as we had discussed in my yesterday's market update. However, we were still down on the week. So, if you come over to the weekly time frame for the S&P 500, we still closed down over 2.2%, and the NASDAQ here was also lower by 2.4% on the week.
So, yes, while we did have a nice little overdue, expected technical rebound—a deadcat bounce here—uh, we were still lower on the week, for four consistent weeks of losses for both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500. And I've done research, and the analysis and spreadsheets on both of these indices in my previous update, so make sure that you do check out uh those videos as well. But the bottom line is that after four consistent weeks here, the NASDAQ has a 25% probability for these losses to extend into the fifth week here, and S&P 500 has a slightly higher probability of over 35, 33% roughly, uh, to extend these losses into a fifth week. And also next week we've got the Federal Reserve meeting, so Jerome Powell is going to be giving us a speech, as well as the summary of economic projections. So that right there is going to be coming out uh next week as well.
Before we get any further, make sure that you drop a like and subscribe to the Channel if you haven't already. We're very close to 97,000 subscribers, so I would really appreciate that. Uh, my portfolio was up a little bit over 1.4%, so just a little bit over $133,000, and the options portfolio was up over 3.8%, or just over $4,600. Just all in all, a little bit shy of $20,000 on the day here. Not bad. Of course, again, this is a technical rebound only. This is not any kind of reversal in the market. This is not uh, you know, uh, you know, back up to all-time highs, or this is the bottom, the low is in—none of that. This was a technical rebound, which we were already expecting, considering how oversold we were, and I was literally talking about this in our yesterday's market update as well.
So, Link's going to be down below if you want to join us. There's an additional 20% discount available for a limited time. This also gives you access to my brand new and most up-to-date shopping list of 36, 37 stocks, high-quality companies with the buy targets, as well as the trade alerts, the opt options portfolio, as well as all the members-only videos and Discord Channel as well, for just 19 bucks a month. And the coupon code is going to be March, M A R C H, and that's going to be available for the rest of the month. So, Link's going to be down below if you want to join, of course, be a part of our Money Vest community. So, 2.75 is where we are for the Moneyb index, so coming back down to uncertainty here. Uh, we were very close to fear on, um, on, on March 13, so yesterday we were very close to uh, to two, 2.5, 2.51. We were kind of hovering around those levels, and you know this is again the lowest levels we've seen since October 2023. That, that's when we were in fear at 2.29, and uh, as of yesterday, you'll notice that we came down to some pretty low levels at 2.5, 2.51, and that right there is the rebound back up to over 2.75. That's where we currently are, with of course a lot of that uh momentum going back into technology. So this was a very risk-on environment in the market, with over a trillion being added into the S&P 500.
Makes a lot of sense considering how much these companies have been selling off: Nvidia pushing up over $150 billion, Microsoft 73 billion, Apple 57 billion, Tesla 32 billion, Google 36 billion, Amazon 43 billion, Meta Platforms 44 billion. So, a lot of that momentum coming in for technology and for risk-on parts of the market as well. If you come over to sector-specific analysis, everything was green, everything across the board was green, all 11 sectors pushing higher, with the exception of, of course, TLT, which is the bond market iShares 20-plus year treasury ETF, uh, the bond ETF, and of course selling off a little bit as this was a very risk-on, very growth-oriented day for the markets as well.
So, moving forward, uh, Tom Lee was also on CNBC, CNBC about an hour ago, and he says that markets are set to rebound, as we would expect him to say, uh, you know, again, of course, because he's almost always bullish on the market, and stocks have overreacted to the downside in six precedent swift sell-offs. Stocks rebounded 9% in 3 months, and expect markets to find their footing before April 2nd uh, also comes around. So, there's a high likelihood a tariff solution is coming, and markets are getting ready to rebound very nicely. And look, coming back over to the technical analysis, and as we had already discussed in my yesterday's update, that you know it's time to load up, and you know there's very oversold conditions in the market. It's only a matter of time we're going to see some buyers stepping in. It's not, it's not rocket science to be honest, like this is very clear that this was a brutal correction for the market. We were down, you know, this is the NASDAQ in reference that we're talking about right now, down about 14 and a half percent. Uh, and if you come over to the S&P 500, you know, same exact thing, it's down a little bit over 10% uh, from all-time highs. Volatility got up to as much as, you know, 29 and 30, and guess what? VIX got crushed; it's down over 11%; it's back now in the low 20s, and you're starting to see that momentum back up in the markets as S&P 500 became incredibly oversold. In fact, the RSI percentiles, if you come over to uh, the RSI dashboard here, was trading at less than 1 percentile. Right, it's back up to normal, 8 percentile in just one day. It went from like 1 percentile to 8 percentile, from 27, 28 RSI back up to over 37 in just one day, uh, given uh, the nice little burst of momentum for the market here.
Now, this is, as I said before, is not a signal in itself that the bottom is in, right, because this could very well be a beginning of a lower high. And the reason I say this is because this is all an analysis of a bigger trend that's playing out. So, in other words, if you look at the overall trend for the market, what you'll notice is that we have consistently made higher highs and higher lows. So, what I mean by that is that if you simply map out this uptrending line, I'm going to remove the moving averages right now, just to give you a little bit of perspective. This is the higher low, and this right here has been the higher high for the market, right? So, if you just simply look at this uptrend, you have seen a very nice consistent, um, higher highs and higher lows for the market as it continues to move up in this direction. Now, what's happened more recently is that this right here, the selloff that we just witnessed, marked a new low for the market. So, this was a lower low, right? So, this was the previous low, and this is a new lower low for the market. And if you consider this to be like the top, right, that's the high, the next high, the next top that we're going to see is, is either going to be taking out this previous high, which in that case is going to be very good; it's a, it's a part of a strength and a strong market and a powerful market. But in case we sort of, let's say, move up and then get rejected somewhere around here, and then start selling off further, what that's going to do is that's going to mark a lower high, right? That's going to mark a lower high, and that is actually going to be a sign of some weakness in the overall market. So that will continue on this downward trend, and that's exactly what we saw back in 2022. So, what you'll notice here is a series of lower highs and lower lows: lower highs, lower highs, lower highs, and lower lows, lower lows, lower lows, lower lows, lower lows, right? So, that's right, that right there is the entire uh downtrend for the market, right? So, a lot of weakness, a lot of downtrend within the overall context of this pattern. So, uh, I really don't want anyone to mistake uh, any kind of rallies that we're seeing within the context of a downtrend to believe that the sell-off is indeed over. It could be over, but we just, we just don't know it yet, right? So, if you essentially uh, look at replay, and if you come back to let's say over here, and you're starting to see this kind of burst in momentum for the market, you know, many people would, would assume that, okay, the sell-off is over, the bottom is in, but we're well within the context of a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. So that's exactly what I really want everyone to understand, um, uh, you know, understanding about these patterns, very, very important.
Um, so coming back over to the NASDAQ, same exact thing, uh, you know, we're breaking below these moving averages, nice little burst of momentum to the upside, uh, and this is going to be that lower lows uh, and lower highs is going to put us somewhere around here. The real important question is: are we going to be breaking above these moving averages, or are we going to get rejected um, at these moving averages, essentially go back up, get rejected, and then sell off even further? Either way, there's still going to be opportunities in the market; there already are a lot of opportunities in the market to take advantage of, and that's why I wanted to put together that 37 stocks uh shopping list for everybody. And volatility, of course, continues to come down, so the levels to keep in mind is going to be 18 to 20 for the VIX, year trading all the way down to under 15. So, the lower the VIX gets, of course, the more momentum we're going to see from the markets moving forward. And breadth also continues to worsen, uh, so what we've seen is uh, 16% of stocks shooting above their 20-day moving average, so now we've got over 84% of stocks trading below their 20-day moving average. So, while all 11 sectors were green, nice recovery in the market, still majority of the market is trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. So that is still a very weak market right now in terms of market breadth. Um, and then finally coming over to some of the other um, important indicators such as the 10-year treasuries, we're sitting at 4.32%, so just hovering sideways, and the dollar index is also sitting at just a little bit over 103, 104, uh, and we've mostly been trading sideways in this range with a very strong support sign right about here at 99, close to 100 uh dollars right now.
So, coming back over to the markets, uh, starting with S&P, resistance right now 5672 all the way up to 5769, support level is going to stay put at 5400. And coming over to the NASDAQ, again, also a little bit of that bounce back higher, you know, as discussed with the oversold RSI and MACD, support level is going to stay put at 16,67% on the NASDAQ. And I expect the S&P to trade back up to as much as 5670 to 5700 uh in the short term, as we see this technical rebound. Coming over to stocks like Apple, uh, also seeing some momentum back up, and and usually what happens when a support level gets broken is we get a retest of that level as a resistance before we continue that trend lower again. The idea here is not to predict but to better understand the risk and reward, and the risk reward has significantly gotten better, and that's exactly why it was very important for us to look at volatility, look at the Money Vest index; we were almost down to fear, and the markets were selling off aggressively, so it made sense to, you know, take advantage of that risk, risk reward opportunity. However, that doesn't mean that we can't go lower; we certainly can and could go lower um, if we are rejected at those moving averages and at those areas of resistance. So, I really want to be mindful uh, when I say this uh, for everyone to better understand where we are in this entire cycle and of course the downtrend. So, Apple here, resistance is going to stay put at 215 to as much as 219, very, very oversold, so like I said there's resistance there, support level is going to stay put down in the low 200s right now.
Coming over to Amazon, so Amazon also seeing a nice little uh bounce here, 2%, trading very strong area of demand here sitting roughly at 192, 193, very, very oversold on the RSI, MACD, and the L3 Banker oscillator as well. And the next target uh for Amazon is going to sit roughly at $216, previous support, previous resistance, that's going to be that level to watch as a resistance, and of course support level here in the low, low 200s uh to as much as 195, 197 for Amazon. Uh, coming over to Tesla, Tesla also getting a nice little rebound here, very strong demand here, here inside this green rectangle in the 225, 228 range, uh resistance all the way up to as much as 275, that is the next level to watch, and of course Tesla is also very, very oversold with some L3 Banker oscillator suggesting for some bigger orders also coming in for Tesla uh in and around these levels at the moment. Uh, coming over to Nvidia, Nvidia also pushing up and also breaking out of this resistance of $17, $118. Will go ahead and turn this level back into a support; however, once again I want to be very clear on this that we are still within the context of a downtrend; we are not out of the woods yet because Nvidia has been making lower highs and lower lows. So, the next target for Nvidia is going to be sitting at 127 uh all the way up to as much as 132, 133, and that is still going to be inside this overall downtrend for Nvidia. Coming over to Advanced Micro Devices, and AMD also has been consolidating sideways for the most part, up almost 3%, resistance all the way up to $116, and a very strong support here at $94, 95 per share. There's been a lot of activity among L3 Banker oscillator, meaning a lot of institutional investors, bigger orders coming in, as you can see just amount of so much activity happening for Advanced Micro Devices um, and and again some of the bigger orders coming in, accumulation for AMD is very, very uh prominent right now, given how much it's been selling off. So, definitely investors are seeing this as an opportunity, looking at AMD as a cheaper stock for me, you know, the fair value is a little bit lower because earnings expectations have come down; there's been a lot of downward revisions for the company; however, sentiment continues to be very weak, the overall trend continues to be very, very weak as well, and so resistance going to stay put at $116 for AMD.
Coming over to uh, let's see, PayPal and Visa, and PayPal here, a lot of consolidation sideways, we got a support roughly at $67, so that right there is going to be that area of demand, resistance all the way up to as much as 75, aligned with that 200 simple moving average as well. Visa was also selling off; right now we're finding some support here at around $320, even though we haven't tested uh those levels yet, but Visa here pushing up close to 1% on the day. Uh, coming over to Nphase and Costco. Nphase also consolidating sideways; this is the area of support that it's validating right now at $58, resistance all the way up to $69 per share for Nphase. Um, and then finally coming over to Costco, on this chart it's been selling off aggressively, and this is going to be that area of demand and support at 86, 869 and 870 for Costco, but also it is very oversold, so a little bit of a technical rebound was in the cards for Costco as well, so pushed up over 1.4% on the day. Uh, coming over to Meta Platforms, and Meta here also consolidating sideways, uh pushing up almost 3%, support level is going to stay put at 579, close to $580, resistance all the way up to as much as 637, 638 for Meta. And Netflix here also consolidating sideways, resistance all the way up to as much as 942, pushing up over 3%, but this right here is the potential head and shoulders that I have also discussed in my previous videos for Netflix. And finally coming over to Google, very strong area of demand, Google is probably one of those companies that I do like the most here at these levels, trading at an area of support, very oversold, and also got pretty good fundamental valuations right now at these levels. Risk reward is probably one of the best for Google and even for Microsoft, considering how much these stocks have been selling off; these are very high-quality companies that have just been pushed to the side where they're not really being loved right now by investors. And so Microsoft, you know, finding some support at 375, 378, resistance all the way up to 397 to as much as $410, and up over 2 and a half percent on the day.
So there you have it; that's the entire update on the market. Just be a little bit more mindful that this is nothing but a technical rebound in the markets right now. Things can certainly get much worse, depending on what, what we're getting, you know, from Washington, the new administration, all the news related to tariffs, growth scare, inflation expectations, and not to mention the interest rate decisions uh for next week. So, in four days we're going to get Jerome Powell, FOMC, as well as the summary economic projections, all of which is going to be very important for the market's direction moving forward. So, Link's going to be down below if you want to join, of course, be a part of our Money Vest Community. There is an additional uh 20% discount for just 19 bucks a month; you get access to the shopping list, uh members-only videos, Discord access, all the channels, trade alerts, portfolio updates. So, link is going to be down below. If you have any questions, have a great weekend; I'll see you all in the next video.