Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to see you again for this breaking news video this Friday, November 21, 2025, in front of a red crypto chart. Yesterday, the entire crypto market and also the entire stock market completely fell. It's not beautiful at all. So, I sent you a lot of analyses yesterday to show you that there are still some positive things. We must not completely lose hope, like here for example, the 31 Fibo levels. So all this, for example, on Telegram, you have the link in the description. The 38 Fibo levels at $84,000. As long as this holds, we maintain the upward trend of Bitcoin. We also have here the short-term holders who are suffering one of the biggest capitulations in Bitcoin's history. This could also mark a low point, a bottom, very soon. We also see that the average holders of TF are at a loss, and the last time they were at a loss, it marked the bottom at $50,000. And you see, even when we touched the exact line of their average price, it had marked the bottom at $60, here $17,000. We also have Glassnode showing us its capitulation indicator, which is at its highest level in 2 years. So we have many, many analyses here that show us that we are at extreme levels, such extreme capitulation that at some point, a bottom will have to form, or in other words, at these levels, we have had several bottoms in the past that were formed with levels not as catastrophic as we have now. That's the idea. Some whales are capitulating, as I showed you yesterday. There was a whale that had bought for almost $15 million worth of the Uni token from the Uniswap DEX. It sold yesterday for only about $3.64 million. So it held on for 5 years to make a small profit of $11.6 million. So that's a bit disheartening. An update of the long-term supports from Glassnode, you see here, and we see that we have very strong supports. These are the orange bands and the green bands. The last time, these held back the major corrections of the previous bull run. As soon as you start breaking them, it's over. And these orange and green bands are simply bands that are around $82,000, between $82,000 and $88,000. So $82,000, you see $80,000, it comes back to $82,000 here, what we call the true market, you see the band here which is green. It held back, for example, the -40% correction in 2021 before going back to all-time highs. It held back again after a bearish channel, it was over. So you see, $82,000, $84,000 are interesting supports. I also sent you this analysis that I showed you several times, it's the Bitcoin to Gold ratio. And each time it touched the oversold zone, it made a bottom on Bitcoin, and we are currently in the oversold zone. Well, so you see that despite the heavy losses on the VIP channel this morning, I talked a bit about all this, we are on the structure, don't hesitate to go and see. All links are in the description. So all this to say that despite yes, the market is not beautiful at all, investors are in incredible stress, it's normal, this is the descent into hell, Bitcoin is only -30%, -32% exactly, and it's exactly the same percentage of correction as during the first bearish wave with the tariffs. So if we only talk about Bitcoin, for now, it's not completely catastrophic. We are on corrections that we have already had previously. We are on capitulation levels even higher than what we saw previously before having bottoms. So personally, as long as the $80,000 approximately holds, I keep hope. After, everyone has the right to have hope or not to have hope. Some of you, if some of you are already in a bear market going to $20,000, well you have the right to think what you want. Well, so cryptos are not good. Upon waking up this morning, the Asian market is also selling. So is Bitcoin going to head towards $82,000? It remains possible. In any case, we hope these $82,000 hold well. They did hold well in the past, these $82,000, you see this green band, and it's around $82,000. Well, the stock market, which has fallen sharply, has been hit. The stock market has been hit, but it's not its fault. There were good Nvidia figures, much better than expected on Wednesday evening. So the Thursday futures were in a big green to anticipate the rise, well, the good Nvidia figures. Unfortunately, the employment figures came out, which messed everything up a bit, and also many are talking about, yes, speculative bubble on AI, bubble on AI, bubble on AI. And so, what is a bubble? Basically, a bubble is when during the rise, everything is fine. You have FOMO, people buy, it keeps exploding, people FOMO, FOMO. However, as soon as there is a small bearish catalyst, a small sell-off starts, and everyone says, "Oh my god!" Because the Nasdaq fell 4% yesterday, it's very, very ugly. Very, very ugly. You see the S&P 500 took a big hit, the Nasdaq took a big hit. So the Nasdaq, you see here, I'm even taking just the candle bodies, just the candle bodies, it's -4.5%. -4.5% for the S&P 500 too. Bam! So this is not good. These are big red candles that tell you, "Ah, isn't this the beginning of something?" Well, so yes, it's really a sharp drop. Bitcoin likewise, this big drop to $85,200 this morning, Ethereum at $2,760 this morning, gold also correcting, oil also correcting, the dollar correcting slightly, the US 10-year correcting, everything is correcting, at least it's settled. Well, the probabilities of interest rate cuts have significantly decreased due to yesterday's employment data. The employment figures, the NFP, showed many more jobs than expected, two and a half times the number of jobs expected. So this is rather bullish for employment, rather bearish for rate cuts. So investors are also not happy to have their December rate cut for Santa Claus, which has gone away. So if we look a bit at the liquidation heatmap, well, we can see that yesterday, don't forget in the video, there was this big cluster unfortunately which was between $88,000 and it went down here to $84,000. Well, we went to eat this big cluster to really, really make the longs capitulate, if you will. Now, since everything has been cleaned up to the south, will we move north to go and pump this towards $98,000-$99,000? Well, we hope so, because at some point, we are long, well, for example, there aren't too many anymore. There are large buy orders supporting at $85,000, and the biggest ones will be at $83,000 for your information. So, the news? They are not very good, not very good because well, the stock market fell very, very sharply yesterday despite solid Nvidia results. Well, so investors are generally a bit worried about everything related to AI, for example, all the spending in the AI sector. There have been hundreds of billions spent here and there, you see, contracts with Nvidia with everyone to also build large clusters to power AI. Well, and so this fear with AI, and they talk about bubbles, and in fact, how do these kinds of bubble situations happen? It's that as soon as there is a small catalyst, a small spark, they all start selling, you see. It's like there's so much FOMO on the upside that all it takes is a small spark and boom, and it falls, it can fall, and you have a cascade of sales, you see, and you also have a cascade of long liquidations that are happening, sales, and it continues, it continues. Well, so the AI sector is quite concerning. We also have the billionaire Ray Dalio who stated yesterday on NBC that the situation is clear. We are indeed in the presence of a speculative bubble. Well, so for now, not very, very good. In addition, we had the publications yesterday of the employment market, more favorable than expected. The NFP came out at 119,000 job creations compared to the 50,000 the market expected. So ultimately, we had a lot of job creations. Ultimately, employment is better than expected. Despite unemployment rising by 0.1 points, investors looked more at the NFP. And so, since many Fed governors were already not very keen on lowering rates in December because they say inflation is already high and it could further increase the risks of upward and persistent inflation if they lower rates in December. So now, the NFP showing employment much better, job creations much better than expected, well, you can feel that it significantly reduces the probabilities of rate cuts, and that's what we see, and which means fewer rate cuts. We are at 35%, which means investors are not very, very happy. You see, it's another small bearish catalyst. Well, we also have the minutes of the Fed that came out on Wednesday evening, which showed that most Fed members are not in favor of a rate cut yet as long as inflation does not calm down. Well, so it's a shame because we had solid Nvidia results, we had solid Walmart results also overnight. It's a shame, but I think everyone is a bit scared, basically. Oh, the AI bubble, the AI bubble. We have Jill Luria, for example, head of technology research at CDA Davidson, who tells us, "The concern is about the significant debt of companies for building AI infrastructure." We were talking about it just now, that the debt market is a bit exhausted. In fact, everyone wants to borrow, the borrowing market, if you will. Basically, there's the government borrowing money. There are all the companies that want to borrow billions, billions, tens, hundreds of billions. There are also corporate treasuries, the DAXs, that wanted to borrow a lot of money on the debt market to buy Bitcoin. Then, you see, their stock goes up, it's too great, I borrow and everything. MicroStrategy, your planet. Well, at some point, there isn't enough money for everyone, and on the other hand, AI companies have borrowed enormously. It has been hundreds of billions of dollars, and some say, well, it's not very bullish, perhaps, you see, for example, we have AI that has also said that data centers are inherently speculative investments, you see, and that Nvidia's good results are not the only indicator of the maturity of the AI economy. Basically, billions, tens, even hundreds of billions have been invested to build large data centers, lots of clusters for AI, and if it doesn't go very well, it's money that could be, well, you see, there might not be a return on investment. So the AI sector has every interest in continuing to develop, otherwise it seems rather not good, everyone is releasing their little robot, you see. Well, but investors are very tense, and in fact, they are tense because the stock market has continued to rise and rise. Don't forget that the stock market has been in a bull run, a bull run, a bull run for a long time, driven by AI. So as soon as there are small uncertainties related to the primary sector that has pushed the entire tech stock bull run, then boom, it can fall. Well, and so our beloved Bitcoin, which has been correlated by 80% in recent months with the US tech sector. Well, as soon as tech falls like here, boom, and well, our Bitcoin falls too, unfortunately. Well, now, what do other analysts think? I like to see that. So, some think that we could have a small bottom forming very soon. We have the analysis here, a pattern that repeated in January, you see. So that means when Trump imposed tariffs and we also corrected by -30% on Bitcoin, you see, we went from $112,000 to $74,000. Remember, we had a small channel that broke downwards. There was an accumulation period which was a second channel, and then boom, explosion. And so he says we can do the same thing. Well, why not? After all, it's not a crystal ball. It's not true. It's nothing like that. But well, you see, like a small channel breaking downwards, an accumulation period between $85,000 and $100,000, and then to repeat it. Well, we hope to have something like that. That could be good. Well, after all, unfortunately, Nvidia has lost its 50-day moving average, but it has been playing with its 50-day moving average several times. If Nvidia's stock takes a hit, it could go down to levels of about 10-20% corrections to reach the 100-day moving average. That remains possible, and if that happens, then it's clear that Bitcoin and crypto are likely to fall a bit lower. We have the analyst here, Bitbull, who tells us that we are in a zone that has often served as a bottom, like at $102,000. He thinks we will have a small rebound towards $99,000 before falling again to try to make a double bottom at $85,000. Why not? So it's true that given that investor sentiment is very bearish, you will mainly see bearish analyses and few bullish analyses. Whereas, well, given all the indicators I showed you yesterday, don't hesitate to go on Telegram, for example, we are at levels of capitulation that are sometimes unprecedented, and it is in these periods that bottoms clearly form. Well, after all, everyone has the right to believe what they want. And to finish, it's still a piece of positive news. Yesterday, the Bitcoin community got excited. Why? Because the US Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessin, was at the inauguration of PubKey. It's a Bitcoin bar in Washington. And look, you have photos here. He is there, Scott Bessin, in this little Bitcoin bar. He's doing what? The Secretary of the Treasury at the inauguration of PubKey, you see. And so we have Ben Workman, director of Mach Strive, who tells us, "The presence of the Secretary of the Treasury at the launch of PubKey seems to me to be a moment on which I could easily turn and say, well, if you want later, wow, it was all obvious." [laughter] So basically, some are bullish in the sense that, well, this is the kind of event that shows that the US government is still behind Bitcoin because government people are bullish with Bitcoin, and so on. Well, and we also have many important players in the Bitcoin sector, well-known American podcasters, who considered Scott Bessin's appearance as an extremely positive sign for Bitcoin. Of course, it's nice, we take what we can, when the markets are in hell, you take the news, the good news that you can. Well, anyway, so it's nice to know that he has always been favorable to crypto. Scott Bessin even declared that the United States must become the global center for digital assets. In August, he said that the US Treasury was still exploring ways to buy Bitcoin in a neutral way, you see, so as not to take money from people. Well, and so we also have the trader Marcoscope who tells us that in this type of market, signals like this don't have much importance, but over time, traders will realize that it had its importance. Some will say, "Oh, who cares, it's Scott Bessin in a bar, whatever." But later, I think we will say, "Ah, it was right before our eyes, the US government. Yes, yes, they are behind Bitcoin, so they won't let Bitcoin fall." Well, so it's the second bar to open. There was this first bar that opened in New York as well, and since it's a movement that's working well, they opened a second bar in Washington. Well, so it's always nice. Now, it's not Donald Trump who will show up at a Bitcoin bar, but seeing his Secretary of the Treasury is still something significant. Well, so there you go. Well, don't hesitate to go and look at the indicators I sent you on social media. We are holding on. What am I doing? I'm still holding on tight, and with all these indicators, I think at some point a bottom will form because we are at levels of capitulation, levels of loss for everyone that are quite significant, much more significant than what we had when we found the bottoms in recent years. So at some point, don't tell me that a bottom won't form now. We'll meet on social media, friends. I'm sending kisses. Courage to everyone, and see you later. Bye bye. [music] [music]