I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This Before

I hope you're well and doing great. Now listen, um, where do we begin? Let's begin with the title of today's session. Let's begin with the thumbnail. And we've got some pretty important things to talk about and discuss. And let me just jump in over here. I've never seen anything like this before. I've never seen anything like this before. Yeah, we do have the bears in the background. And listen, at the same time, you have to understand, and for real, I am probably one of the most bullish people that I know of going in and through 2026. But right now, in this particular moment that we are in, and a lot of us are really focused in on the present, and I really want us all to be focused on the bigger picture and in the long term. But right now, we have some events that we've been talking about that the market's really paying attention to, and the market's beginning to pay attention to a lot of other things. We'll begin discussing them, but I'm paying attention, and you're likely paying attention to the price of Bitcoin. I mean, Bitcoin's trading at at $107,000. It looks like it's under pressure. It doesn't look good right now, right?

Um, and I think everyone's paying attention here to gold, and gold, just this is not normal. This is completely different. It's been completely different for quite a while now. It's been since last February, February of this year, I should say. Gold began to be overbought and has remained. So something's different. This is not normal. A lot of people, a lot of people who have really, let's say, chose gold and only gold as their vehicle of navigating these markets. They've been continually hedging the downside. They're like, "The market is just, this is unreal. I've been involved in gold before when it's gone seemingly parabolic." Here's a great, great, great, great, great situation right over here. Look over here. And you can see that gold puts in this massive move. It must be like a 70, 80% move. And then could you imagine that you were involved in gold in this situation? This scars you, and then you, like, you don't sell, and then boom, you run back the whole thing. And again, you know, gold making the run and then smack down and worse. The time it took to recover was so wrong, so long. So long that I was like, "I'm not, I'm done stacking. I'm not stacking through that." I remember over here, Jim Rogers being like, you know, before gold hit just above a thousand, if he, he said, "I think gold's going to a thousand, and if it hits it, I hope I'm smart enough to buy it." Man, the round number never was hit. But but I, which way they, a lot of people, because they have this past experience that forms us. Four-year cycle in Bitcoin, grueling 12-month massive drawdowns. It's, it's scarred. And other people, it makes them a little bit more immune to the volatility right there. There's a reason that certain people have been able to to HODL for so long. It's because after you go through your first 85%, 84%, 60%, 76%, you know, you get, you get a little bit immune. But a lot of people have been hedging their gold positions, and they keep thinking this is the top, this is the top, and they're losing a lot of money on their overall position. Listen, gold's going to $5,000. Like, we'll re-evaluate when it gets there. And you know, I don't think we're looking at four-digit gold in the future. You know, I think it's going to be 10-digit. And it's all, it's all extremely. The timeline this is unfolding is, I never would have imagined that gold would have been going vertically up. And a lot of people think that that's going to stop, and it very well might. It very well might, but there's bigger problems developing. You have to wonder what the answers and response are going to be.

Anyway, look at silver. Silver, Bitcoin had a bit a larger market cap than silver not too long ago. Silver's put on, in a relatively very short amount of time, another hundred trillion dollars on into its market cap. I love that because, first of all, I'm a hard money guy. And for me, what it means is that, listen, yeah, Bitcoin right now, it's, you know, it's, is it under pressure? Let me, let me just talk about Bitcoin really quick. Uh, first of all, Bitcoin bull runs out of the market, safe. Uh, we didn't want to lose that yellow line. We lost the yellow line. That's not good. That, I mean, obviously we expect potential further downside weakness until we get some repairs into this market. You could continue looking at that yellow line. You've got to get back above it in the near term in order for things to look better. We know that our swing trading positions are out of the market, except for Cardano. It's short, and that short right now, I was saying two days ago when we began taking the short, I was like, "Ah, it looks like a bare flag." And you know, and people are like, "Boom, thumbs down, thumbs down, thumbs down." Well, whatever. It's just the momentum. The momentum here is going out, and it feels okay to be short here at Cardano. And then we look at our stocks, and we're out. We got out of the market. We got so lucky, I think, on Monday's opening, getting us out of these positions into profit because we could have gapped down nasty and taken losses. But it didn't work out that way, and that's good. You know, we like when things go our way, and seemingly the harder we work, the more things go our way. And with 100% cash, it feels good. And then you say, "Oh, well, MicroStrategy, for those that do trade the short side, and many people trade stocks within their retirement accounts, and they don't, and that's great. Preserving your capital is immense. It's perfect. Great. But MicroStrategy, for those that are trading short, it feels good to be short MicroStrategy and Cardano. They seem like the momentum's rolling over, and we don't know whether or not they'll continue to roll, and or other instruments begin on the short side, or we're going to see a resolution pretty quickly. And the clock's ticking. The clock's ticking for me. The clock is ticking until we get towards the end of the month over here. And we've got a couple of dates that we're looking at. And the first one is the 29th, on Wednesday the 29th. And I suppose next Friday might belong here. Next Friday, we have the CPI, and they're like, even though the government's shut down, we're going to release it. I don't know what to expect. I don't have any expectations, but my expectations are that regardless of what happens with the CPI, we are not going to see anything change for the October meeting. And October 29th is a double whammy, as we have FOMC, and then we've had, have you guys seen that a lot of the FOMC speak is coming from, uh, from Miran? And you know, it's interesting that, you know, is he going to be the next Fed chair? And a lot of what he says, and he's making the rounds on doing the interviews, and a lot of what he says is carrying a lot of weight. And then we have also FOMC day. This is a major, major market event. We also have the earnings coming from Microsoft, Meta, and Google, and that right there is of utmost importance. I hear a rumor, I don't know the details, that Deepseek is about to release a new model. And of course, there's that worry. You all remember the Deepseek moment when it was dropped out there, and they're like, "Are all these companies just spending a ton of money for nothing? Are they never going to see a return on it?" Do you remember when YouTube bought YouTube? When Google, back then, now Alphabet, Prince, the artist formerly known as, when they bought YouTube, they paid like a billion dollars. And it was like, wow, so much money. It's ridiculous. A quarter of YouTube makes billions of dollars now. And regardless of the amount of money these companies are spending right now on AI, what about Meta, man? Facebook, the Facebook, Facebook changed their name to Meta, and now what happened to the Meta Metaverse? It's completely gone, or is it? Or do you think like all that effort and rabbit hole they went down, do you think that it's going to pay dividends going forward as they move towards the next, the future? We're headed towards the future at a crazy rate. And regardless, regardless, these people feel that network effects are so important that they need to come out of this on top. They're not worried about the hundreds of billions of dollars they're spending now because they also realize, likely, that in the future, a hundred billion dollars today is going to be trillions tomorrow, and that they're likely correct. They're likely correct.

Um, this is the devaluation here. And you could go back to my Twitter in 2021, 2022, 20. I'm talking about the debasement that Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge. Actually, in high times of inflation, it's not even going to respond well. And why? Because they're going to tighten into that. They have no choice but to tighten into that. And Bitcoin is a hedge against the debasement of the currency, dependent on the adoption, as long as the adoption continues to take hold. The debasement is going to continue. And that is the bullish case for Bitcoin. A lot of people that are hedging their gold, right? They're like, "Hedge, like, hoping that gold, they're bullish on gold and they're hoping that gold is going to come off so they make bank on their hedges." No, the hedge is Bitcoin. The hedge is Bitcoin. It's not trading against gold. It's not trading against hard money. This all is accelerating at a rapid pace. And it's completely alarming. It might be, the more I watch gold continue to rise like that, the more alarming it becomes. And I have to say, jumping over to the NASDAQ, I mean, we've got the bears lurking in the background. And I don't want to be, I'm bearish until we get some clarity. You all know I'm very clear about the clarity. We've got the 29th of this month, FOMC double header, major earnings. We have to pay attention. And I assume that we're going to come out of that, but we don't know. And if we need to pivot, we have to pivot. That's one of the pivot signals we've given. And then we have, obviously, days after that, we have the summit in Asia between Xi and Trump. And right now, there's a lot of posturing going on because this is really important, right? It is a trade war, and it's really important that both sides have the best position into the negotiation. I think both sides are in fragile positions, and they want to be able to, you know, things they want things to continue to keep them afloat as long as possible, but we don't know. And you never know. If one of these guys walks away from the meeting, markets are going to get punished, you know, and the ramifications of that, we'll find out, and we don't know. But at the same time, like the NASDAQ is a stone's throw off the all-time high. Fed is beginning to align monetary policy back towards growth. And as this debasement's going on, it's not just Bitcoin, gold, silver. I mean, guys, we were looking at the CAGR of silver belongs in the conversation. It is pretty fantastic. One-year CAGR greater than gold's. Two-year CAGR greater than gold's. Three-year CAGR greater than gold's. Gold's CAGR on four-year is better. They're almost equal going back the next three, four years. Gold's slightly, I mean, it's keeping pace. It's doing well. And then once the Fed actually does return to outright QE, and again, CTM philosophy, they're trying to extend the cycle as long as possible. The next phase of the Fed cycle as they're lowering rates is going to be to stop QT. They're talking about it now. And then after that, does the balance sheet stay stagnant, or does it begin that organic balance sheet and begin rising? That's, I mean, it's not outright QE. It is QE by another name. Last time it happened, risk responded well. We don't, we're just paying attention and watching what happens. But when they do return to outright QE eventually, because it is a Ponzi and a house of cards, and the debt-based system, the only way to keep it going is by continually inflating it. And when they do, then that's when I believe silver really runs against gold. And then soon after that, it'll be time to get out of both of them. But I don't think we're close to that right now.

Um, Bitcoin here, $108,000. May, I don't like, a lot of people are concerned. They're worried. I look, I'm not in that camp from a positioning standpoint. You all know Bitcoin bull runs out of the market. All swing trades out of the market. That's the most important. Nevertheless, nevertheless, may, I don't know, is it, is it these treasury companies and that massive like FOMO that was taking place, and are they just simply now being bought back to an imbalance, and does that need to take place here before Bitcoin is going to make its next leg up? Man, I, you can tell by my tone, I don't have a concern in the world right now about Bitcoin. Now, of course, that could change. And we have some levels that we've looked at in the past. This is one of them. This is moving higher now. We lose 88. I'm going to move this up over here towards towards 88. Now, that would be a concern. There's no doubt about it. But personally, it's completely tied into what takes place and the events that we've talked about very soon. We're talking two weeks, two weeks ahead of us. We'll have a lot more clarity hopefully right around that. And I personally can't say that, man, $55,000 Bitcoin's cheap. I think the closer we get to it, the more inclined I'll be to lean into it and not derisk down. That's my opinion. That's that's I'll hit on it. If we do actually indeed take out some important levels and break down further, that's what we're watching. Couple of questions that came up yesterday and looking for the sleep. Number one, this is slightly odd. Jordan, one day could we speak about a succession plan in the event something happens to you with CTM? God forbid, but it's something that I thought about a lot, and I absolutely, obviously, it's so critically important. Here we are navigating the markets, conquering the markets. It sounds like such hubris, but indeed, here we are, turn after turn on the right side, and what we've been able to build is absolutely astonishing. Like, yes, something that's concrete needs to be in place. However, if something were to happen, um, like, for sure, you all would be perfectly fine. We have the wizard behind the tables there. You have nothing to worry about from that aspect, but it should be done in a much more thoughtful way. And, uh, yes. Yes, that needs more attention. Uh, Jordan, I'm think I want to join again. I've never transferred to the CTM 2.0 several years ago, but I love your full market coverage, stocks now as well. Jordan, what do you suggest? You have to join us. Are you abs? You have to join us. And what I suggest for everyone in CTM, when I first made the bullish case for Bitcoin, when I first made the bullish case for Bitcoin, a lot of people were still so tied to foreign exchange and stocks, and they didn't want to make that transition. And we got everyone bullish on Bitcoin. But at the same time, you have to embrace stocks and Bitcoin and crypto, and you should have these should be your two like strategies, and then you have the strategies for each because stocks, first of all, are as or more profitable, these leverage instruments that we trade, than Bitcoin and crypto. They are consistent. They, you have to have both. That's the diversification. We're highly concentrated. We trade four instruments and six instruments. They're tech and Bitcoin related. They're Bitcoin and crypto related. We trade the momentum around them. You've got to give yourself the best opportunity for success. A lot of people think that a bare market might stop with the euphoria ahead. Let's see. We have earnings coming up. Earnings is super important because we want to see whether or not these companies, you know, are not only meeting expectations, and usually they try to set the bar low so that they're able to beat their guidance is important. Their earnings have been steadily growing. If it starts going the other way, okay, then we could see a correction. I think the main thing here, and what value investors have gotten so completely wrong, is that it's the denominator that's losing value. And it's going to take a lot to turn this train around. Near-term volatility is one thing. It's not only Bitcoin. It's not only gold, silver, precious metals. It's also, and especially, select tech stocks that are outpacing the devaluation. And it's why in this current situation, so far, they're holding up reasonably well, particularly well. And of course, that could change, and we watch it, we navigate it. We were 100% into cash and stocks and MicroStrategy, now attacking the short side. That's our positioning. Not only are major institutional players continuing to buy Bitcoin, not only are the corporates continuing to buy Bitcoin, but soon there will be likely, and soon in the years ahead, central banks beginning to actually stack Bitcoin as well. There's no question about it.

Yes, right now we've got a lot of uncertainty arising. We have the bears in the background. We're just waiting, and we have that pivotal area that we're working towards. Do I think that we're going to see a bare market without the euphoria phase? I think if we lose $100,000 on Bitcoin, then very quickly you will see a lot of people who embrace the four-year cycle exiting Bitcoin. They're going to say, "Well, it's the time. It's just the time that the last two cycles happened to peak here, and because of that, Bitcoin, like, no euphoria, it's time to exit the market. 2026 bare market." And we talk a lot about the actual macro, and we talk a lot about why we believe that, you know, of course, there could be bumps, and we'll be positioned on the right side if there are, but expectations are that we're going to continue to see this bull market, which is three years old, continue, and, yeah, Bitcoin along with it. And I don't think that we're going to enter into a bare market here without a blow-off top. I didn't think we, I certainly didn't think we would have a blow-off top. That was now correct. And, look, we'll have mid-November. We'll find out whether or not it looks like we have pain ahead. And pain likely is not going to be a 12-month bare market with a, you know, 70 to 75 to 85% drawdown, but pain. And that would not be Bitcoin-specific. This would then be like risk equity markets. If there's pain ahead, you know, we'll navigate it. Do I think we take out the April lows? No. I do not think that that happens, but we've got to get through it. Novice question: When you say that you're completely sidelined, so CTM has a fundamental strategy, and that fundamental strategy is, you know, buy and hold. Your portion that you are, it's just whether or not you have it in IBIT, whether or not you have it in cold storage. You have your Bitcoin position that is called the cold storage position. You're just not selling that. That's your hedge against the system. Then CTM has their trading positions, right on Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and then on our select stocks. And those are two, those are both critical strategies. When I talk about being sidelined, I'm talking about our trading strategies right now. And again, for our trading strategies, we do have that short that's currently open on MicroStrategy and a short that's currently open on Cardano. And we never know whether or not, just because we take a position, that they're going to move towards or fall into profit or not. We just know that, you know, we are the house, and giving the probabilities are in our favor.

All right everyone, well, Greg, this is a great question. Greg's wondering, like, well, how do you explain the amount of money that these corporations have purchased Bitcoin, and Bitcoin has barely moved upwards? And I like the reason for that is because, and you could see it on-chain, there have been an extraordinarily, extraordinarily, there have been a lot of people holding Bitcoin seven, eight, nine, 10 years who have been selling their Bitcoin. They were like, "You know what? I have a lot of Bitcoin. I've made a lot of money." And for whatever reason, if that reason is because, it doesn't mean they don't think Bitcoin's going to a million and likely not stopping there. It's maybe, maybe they believe that, you know what, we're, maybe I don't want to go through another correction with this thing. This thing has corrected every few years. I am perfectly happy with diversifying at this particular point. I hope you do the same. Like, not saying now, but if you're holding Bitcoin 7, 8, 9, 10 years and it's appreciated to a factor where you feel like selling it and deferring, that's what an investor does. And you know, there have been enough people, enough willing sellers to unload their Bitcoin and sell it to those that are willing to buy it. That's healthy in my opinion. It's really good that the people that are buying the Bitcoin, it seems that are going to be looking to hold that Bitcoin for as long as they can. And yes, you know, the way I look at it is like there's a big sell wall, right? And then you know that you know that you could easily get, like enough people have sold between 100 and 130 where all of a sudden you're not going to find more willing sellers to 150, 170, right? But like eventually this corn is eaten up, and then when it does, that's when Bitcoin will make its ascent. I think it's really healthy. I think it's really natural, and don't get discouraged. The only, like, think about, think about who got discouraged and rightfully so. But I didn't bring it up in today's session. Got to bring it up for sure. The VIX, we'll get to it. Who should get discouraged? These guys should have been. This was completely discouraging. A 10-year period, not even a 10-year period, a 13-year period of going sideways in drawdown. That's tough, you know. And then like those, then it pays off, dude. Dude, the hedge against gold going straight up is also to own Bitcoin. Everyone, we're going to keep this short and sweet today. I certainly enjoyed the session. If you did, on your way out, please go ahead and smash that like button. Lots of love, everyone. Stay safe. You have to have a plan, and you have to trade your plan. CTM is feeling pretty level right now, and that's good. That's what we want. We always want to have that roaring in the bliss about us, having our awareness about us. Have a beautiful day, everyone. God bless you. I'll see you all back on the inside.