Transcription
I think Tesla's about to enter the most fascinating time period in the company's history. That time period is going to be defined, in my opinion, by the fact that the company is going to be well ahead of where society is from a regulation perspective, from a law perspective. And it's going to create a massive amount of friction in a lot of ways, and in a different way for those that adopt what the company is doing and the sort of ecosystem that is being built around it. I think those people are going to do extremely well, but that's going to create a whole host of issues. So, let me talk about what I mean, and I would love to hear your feedback in the comment section below.
We're entering an age where artificial intelligence, robots, AI brains, training compute, the entire AI ecosystem is starting to birth technologies that are going to transform the world as we know it, as it pertains directly to Tesla. If you watch these videos where I'm in the Cybertruck, these videos are not just a showcase of the things that I'm talking about, but it's also a showcase of the technology because when I'm recording these videos, this truck is driving itself. It's on FSD. Right now, I have FSD V13. I don't have V14 yet. Come on, Tesla. Send me V14. Damn it. But the reason why I'm able to do these videos, these talking heads, is because I'm in a self-driving car where all I have to do is just pay attention, and then the car will just take me from point A to point B.
We're about to enter a time where Tesla's going to start releasing vehicles, as soon as next month, where the self-driving technology is going to be so good that people no longer have to pay attention. And as the company puts it, as Elon Musk puts it, people will be able to text and drive. We're actually getting to the point where we almost feel comfortable allowing people to text and drive, which is kind of the killer app. But I'm confident that in the next month or two, uh, we should, we, we're going to look closely at the safety statistics, but we will allow, uh, you to, um, text and drive, essentially.
And this is a perfect example of what I mean by my statement where we're about to enter a time where companies like Tesla are going to be ahead of where society is and ahead of where laws and regulations are. Tesla could very well have a software suite, a software capability where the car would literally, you know, I'm not going to do it because I'm still paying attention, right? Like, I could literally just be here looking at my phone and recording this video technically, and the car will just take me to my destination in downtown Austin. But as long as we have the current set of regulations, I will not be able to sit behind the steering wheel and pedal of this car and do that. Why? Because that is the literal definition of distracted driving. Distracted driving is illegal, as far as I know, in the world, but definitely the United States. And so now we're gonna have a company that has this breakthrough technology that will literally allow people to just be behind the steering wheel and pedal of their car and not have to pay attention. And those vehicles take people from point A to point B.
That same technology is going to save lives because these AI systems, these self-driving cars, regardless of what you think of the company, regardless of what you think of the individual, it is an objective fact that Tesla's FSD software will be at a point extremely soon where it's going to reduce the deaths from auto vehicles and reduce accidents from auto vehicles in the United States or in the jurisdictions that allow this technology. And the technical reason why is because these vehicles have eight cameras around the vehicle and a super powerful AI computer in the car that has been trained on billions of human-driven miles across the world of the best examples of what human driving looks like. And because an AI computer is never going to get tired, it's never going to get drunk. It's never going to be texting and driving. It's never going to be distracted. And it has a 360 surround view of its surroundings. And it's able to anticipate motions from other vehicles, pedestrians, objects on the road. And it's able to anticipate things much faster than any other human could. The net result is going to be a software system that is going to navigate the roads way safer than a human. But we don't have regulations and laws in the current day and age that will allow that technology to go everywhere. So that's one example.
If you look at Tesla's aspirations with their robot, this Optimus bot, the company has set forth a goal to reach a million units per year of these human robots that long-term will be able to do what humans do in the physical world. Manipulate objects, work factory jobs, work warehouse jobs, build things, do lawn care, do your dishes, whatever. They have a goal to reach a million units per year starting next year. The next product the company hopes will get them to 10 million units per year. And the following product they hope will get them to 100 million units per year. Elon Musk says that this will be one of the fastest production ramps in the history of large manufacturing. Now, Elon is also known for being extremely optimistic when it comes to his timelines. And so the timeline of that thing happening, I want you to take with a grain of salt. But the end result of that happening is almost inevitable. And I will say it's inevitable. And the reason why is because the value proposition of a human or robot that actually can do the tasks that humans can do in the physical world, the value of that robot will be too large to ignore. Meaning that if a company can actually sit down and make a human a robot that can do those general things that a human could, everyone's going to buy one, especially if it's affordable. And this is why you have companies like Figure. This is why you have companies like 1X. This is why you have the entire industry in China basically trying to figure out how to do human robots properly. Because once you figure out human robots, all of a sudden you have the ability to manufacture labor at will at a lower cost than you would have to pay a human to do that same task.
Once these human robots scale and you think about how many materials are in the human robot, how much the chips cost to build, how much the batteries cost to build, how much the cameras cost, the actuators, everything. All in, Tesla thinks they'll be at about $20,000 per unit once they reach a 1 million unit run rate. And that math kind of checks out because if you think about the amount of stuff in a human robot versus, let's say, the amount of stuff in a Tesla Model Y, a Tesla Model Y costs about $30,000 to build. And the human robot is going to be significantly smaller. It's going to be significantly more tech-oriented and a lot of new things in the human robot that are going to be very expensive. But one thing that we've learned from technology is that with enough time, the costs of all these things will go down over time. And so even though Tesla won't be at the point where they'll be at $20,000 per human robot in a couple years, they'll get there by the end of 2020, the beginning of 2030. And so once you start reaching those levels, what you start running into is that the equivalent cost per hour of a human or robot doing a task is roughly $3 per hour, taking into account electricity, insurance, maintenance, repairs, etc. And then you layer on the fact that a human robot doesn't have to rest. It doesn't have workers' rights, right? Because it's not a human. It can work weekends. It can work nights. That same exact human robot can work all the time. And the only downtime it would need in theory is charging or repairs or maintenance. So out of 24 hours in a day, the human robot in theory could work anywhere between 16 to 20 hours, maybe even more, especially if it's doing a job where it can be plugged in while it's working. So it's charging while it's working.
So now that very simple math we have to work through once we reach that reality and once the AI brain is able to execute more and more tasks like, you know, it will probably start at picking things up and putting things down, maybe doing a very simple job at a warehouse, maybe doing a very simple job at a factory, but eventually it will be able to fold clothes, it will be able to clean homes, it will be able to help build homes, do lawn care, do very fine motor things with its hands. Elon says that eventually Optimus Robot will be better than the best surgeon because of how accurate the hands will be. We're still probably a decade plus away from that. But that's where we're going. And on the path to get to that point, you're going to start hitting more and more jobs that are going to be displaced because of the robot's ability to do those jobs, but also because of how much it costs. So, think about how much you pay on average for somebody to come and do your lawn, let's say, or the cost of your time to go outside and do your lawn, or how much you pay a maid to come to your house, or how much you pay a factory worker or a warehouse worker, or somebody that's out in the real world doing a physical job where they get paid an hourly wage. Think about how much those jobs typically cost. And then ask yourself, if I had the ability to hire, quote unquote, hire a human or robot that would be able to do that same exact job and I don't have to deal with HR. I don't have to worry about health insurance. I don't have to worry about their feelings. I don't have to worry about their relationship. I don't have to worry about them potentially not being there anymore or potentially robbing me when they're in my house. Okay, think about those variables. Oh, and by the way, the cost per hour of that thing is three bucks an hour. Which one would you choose on average? Which one would you choose? And that equation only gets more and more drastic and more and more prevalent the more tasks the human robot can do.
And so the question becomes, is society, is government, are regulations, are safety nets ready for what's about to happen? And so it becomes quite obvious right in this day and age. If Tesla can achieve those goals and those things that it has set for itself from a technological perspective, anybody who is invested in that story, not financial or or investment advice, it stands to reason that these robotic units, this, these cyber cows, these robo taxis, these human robots as they enter the quote unquote workforce are going to take a larger share of the market versus humans doing those tasks. And that is Tesla's next 10 years. That's truly where their earnings are is going to come from is by going into markets where the human is doing the work and now the robot is doing the work.
This is going to be both an extremely great thing and a very, very risky thing. It's going to be a great thing because the cost of doing these things, getting moved around from point A to point B like I am in this car as an example. The cost of transportation is going to plummet to sub 30 cents per mile. Meaning that it no longer makes sense for a lot of people to own their own vehicle from a financial perspective or to ride hell and Uber because those things are going to cost closer to 70 cents per mile, 80 cents per mile if you own your own vehicle on average and significantly above that if you rely on things like Uber and Lyft to take you from point A to point B. You're basically going to be paying mass transportation type prices like buses or trains or the subway for individual transportation units like the cyber cab or this Cybertruck or the Model Y, but you had the unit all to yourself. It's private and it takes you from door to door instead of stuffing yourself in a freaking subway or waiting for a bus to show up and you have to go, you know, walk to the bus stop. Okay, it's going to be roughly the same price, but it's going to come to your door. That is massively disruptive. But think about how many people can now afford really high-quality transportation in this new reality. How many communities are going to yearn for something like this that they can take advantage of where they're able to have these cyber cabs just driving around their communities, their cities, their towns, their metro areas where it's going to take them from say their house to the airport for like five bucks or their house to the grocery store for like two bucks or less. And then because it's so cheap to manufacture these units, these units are no more than two to three minutes away from being hailed and coming to your location and picking you up and taking you to that place. A lot of people are going to take advantage of that.
But the flip side is the people that now do those jobs will no longer have work to do in that specific domain because the cost of human labor is significantly higher than the cost of the robot, which is the self-driving car. And so the outcome from that is obvious, right? There's going to be some people, I don't know what the percentage is, my gut tells me it's the minority, but it's probably going to be significant enough, especially in our current political landscape and our current economic landscape here in the United States. There's going to be a significant enough number of people that are going to see what's happening and then blame companies like Tesla for the reason why they no longer have a job. And they will look to political parties or the government to help solve for that. And we're already seeing this happening in front of our eyes. Not even 24 hours after the comp package passed for Elon Musk, his trillion dollar comp package, as long as Tesla gets to $8.5 trillion market cap, which is a six times from where we are today. The rhetoric is already ramping up. Look at this evil billionaire. Look at this evil trillionaire. See, told you it was going to happen. Look at this evil trillionaire. He just made a trillion dollars and nobody can afford to buy a new house. We can't stand for this anymore. What's going to happen when that guy's company starts displacing drivers inevitably because his product is just way better? It just doesn't make any more sense to have drivers to earn a living from a pure market economic perspective.
If you're somebody who's invested in Tesla, this is something that you're going to have to pay very close attention to because this is what's going to happen. There's going to be a ginormous amount of negative attention on Tesla in the next 5 to 10 years as their automated systems start appearing all over the world. And the positive sides of that will get completely ignored and the legitimately negative things will get boosted 100 times louder because that's how media works. I've been doing this almost for 4 years now. I think it's officially 4 years. Good. Happy anniversary to me. If it bleeds, it leads. People losing their jobs from self-driving cars will be the headline. People losing their jobs from human robots will be the headline. The easiest target for all these things happening, even though it's not just Tesla that's doing these technologies with many, many companies, it's going to be Tesla. It's going to be Elon. Why? Because Elon is the evil trillionaire as per the media. And I can go into a whole commentary where it's like, okay, the reason why he's a evil trillionaire is because he took a gigantic amount of risk and set of risks in the last 20 years and him and his investors and the people that work for his companies nearly went bankrupt multiple times because of those risks. And that's the reason why he is where he is today. But that's not going to get talked about because it's, it doesn't have much juice. That's a boring storyline. It's, it's too factual. Okay? It's too factual.
The way capitalism works is not well understood. This is the saddest thing that I've come to realize in the last few days is that a lot of people in this country in the United States do not understand how capitalism works. They do not understand that for somebody like an Elon Musk to reach that level of wealth, there had to have been an unbelievable amount of risk that had to be taken on and an unbelievable amount of execution that had to come to be able to reach that level of wealth. And this is not me trying to defend an individual. These are just factual statements. But the unfortunate reality is that we do live in a world in the United States where parts of the system have failed because of crony capitalism to where owning a home is getting really hard for most people, where inflation has eroded people's buying power away, where our political landscape doesn't allow for nuance in conversation and an actual pro-con discussion about things like capitalism or this new socialism wave that's starting to enter the country. By the way, this is just the beginning of that, FYI.
This exact conversation that I'm having right now in the car, this will inevitably lead to more people pointing the finger and saying, "See, we can't afford things because we're losing our jobs because of these robots coming to take our jobs." And the only way, the only way, the only way to make sure that that kind of rhetoric and that actual outcome doesn't come to fruition, the only way is by leveraging these new technologies to materially improve the standard of living of the people that are most left behind by our current system. Let me say that again. The only way to prevent that type of thinking to become the standard in the United States and across the world where robot bad is to ensure that these technologies dramatically improve the average standard of living in this country. And that means the people that are most cynical and most upset and most left behind by the weaknesses of capitalism, these systems, these automated systems, these self-driving cars, these human robots, they need to make an almost immediate positive impact on the people that have the least amount of means.
And to kind of crystallize that vision for you, this could very well look like communities in the middle of America that were left behind because of the flight of industry and manufacturing going overseas. Parts of cities that are run down and just in really rough shape. Cyber cab robo taxis available for these folks to be able to hail a freaking super sick car for cheaper than it would be to own a car or to ride an Uber or to ride a bus. Fleets of human robots that go into these rundown parts of the city and they help revitalize and rebuild the city at a fraction of the cost of what it would take to hire somebody else that's going to give you a contract and they're going to push the timelines out and draw more money out of the government. Instead, the human robots will go in and they will get the job done like that and it'll be perfect every time. That's the only way that the negative part of this story doesn't start becoming the loudest voice in what's about to happen. As a society, we need to ensure that the people that are most left behind are the ones that most benefit from these technologies. It cannot be an aggregation to the top where only the richest people have all the robots and only the richest people have access to these automated systems and these cyber cabs. Cyber cabs need to be the primary form of transportation in the poorest parts of the country. It has to be so that the people that are living the lives of despair and pain experience firsthand the positive nature of this change. And the media aren't the ones that are dictating what is likely to happen. There needs to be actual positive change in the world.
And the one thing that I'm optimistic about is that Elon has shown a predisposition to execute on this. The purchase of Twitter, I think, speaks for itself. The creation of Tesla speaks for itself. The way SpaceX has plummeted the cost of space speaks for itself. And I think the US is very fortunate to have somebody like him leading this effort. But it's going to require everybody, everybody to ensure that these technologies benefit everybody. We all have to make sure this happens. You've literally watched me this whole time. The car is just driving itself from one point to another. I'm extremely fortunate to have this technology in my life, but there's no reason why this technology can't be everywhere.
And so if you're a regulator that's watching this video for whatever reason, I strongly encourage you to look into the FSD technology from Tesla and be honest about what you see. I'm not asking you to approve it. I'm just asking you to take a look at it and actually deep dive the data. Experience the technology for yourself. Stress test the out of the technology. Analyze every single thing that could potentially go wrong to ensure that this is the right thing for your community, for your jurisdiction. And if you are jurisdictions and communities that are looking to adopt life-changing technology, I encourage you to do the same exact thing. Just experience the technology and ask serious questions, positive questions, negative questions. Focus on the negative questions. Focus on job displacement. Focus on safety implications, privacy implications. But every single person in this country needs to be paying attention to technologies like this because they will change this country. They will change the world. And we need to make sure it's done in a positive way, not a negative way. Thank you so much for watching.