Transcription
Hello everyone, I hope you are doing well. We are meeting today for an update on what has happened in the market over the last two days, and we will therefore cover Bitcoin, Ethereum, as well as Etena. Before we begin, please remember to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. It is very important for its development. Do not hesitate to like the videos and tell me in the comments which altcoins you would like me to analyze next. Let's start. For Bitcoin, we were in an uptrend since the beginning of the month, and on the last update we did, we stopped around here. We had just recovered this high at $117,500, and we were in a zone that was conducive to a reversal. In the short term, we were still not in a context that was really favorable for this because we were still above our 15-minute, above our 5-minute. And by the way, we see that we have made a new high, but a very slight one compared to this wick on September 18th. However, afterwards, we had a short-term trend reversal, given that we went back below our 1-minute, below our 5-minute, and we also went below our 15-minute, marking a break of structure at that moment when we broke this short-term support. Here, we have this reversal on small time units which brought us back to our 1-hour tunnel, and we see that we also filled an imbalance zone in this wick that we had marked on September 17th. An imbalance that we had marked on 4 hours, and we had a perfect bounce on the middle of this imbalance, which allowed us to re-enter our 1-hour tunnel. And for now, what we can observe is that our 15-minute tunnel is holding the price down. It's true that currently, in this context, what's happening isn't super exciting because we might have a different context than what we had here, because what we could see then was that our 15-minute was not resisting in either direction. And now, when we see that our 15-minute is starting to hold the price down, it could be a sign that a strong trend is activating, and the next target at the level of the moving averages, if we fail to re-enter our 1-hour and break our 15-minute upwards, would be to come at a minimum, in my opinion, to our 4-hour tunnel, which is now located at $114,200, and coming back to this zone here would mean coming to recover the stops below these lows and also below these lows. It's true that it could be a perfectly relevant move. Now, whether it will happen, I don't know. In any case, if it happens, it's a first zone of interest conducive to a bounce. Now, whether it will be a bounce to go higher or simply a bounce in a trend that is reversed, I don't know yet. Now, we could still finish filling this wick before reversing. But well, we still have quite a few levels of interest just before our 4-hour tunnel. Here, as I just said, it's true that the fact that our 15-minute has held our price down once, twice, is not ultra convincing. For the short-term future, on a larger time unit, we are in a context that we have already seen in the past, that is to say, a break of our weekly structure. Because here, we see that we have made a lower low here, compared to this lower low here. If we switch to line, we'll see it better. Here, we have a bounce that brings us back to the reload zone, and we have a failure in the reload zone. This potentially announces a lower high before a trend continuation to break this level here. And then, if we find ourselves in this context where we break our low at $107,500, well, that won't be great. Now, we are far from that for the moment, and before reaching $107,500, we have plenty of levels of interest on which we are likely to reverse. For these levels of interest, we obviously have the 4-hour tunnel. Then, we have imbalance zones here on which we can also reverse. This one, which is still open at $113,000, and this one also at $111,900. And we also have our daily tunnel at $109,127, which also aligns with a nice wick. If we manage to regain an uptrend, obviously, we still have this zone of interest here at $120,000, right in our reload zone. What we can also see is that when we put a Fibonacci on our current movement, if we assume that this is the top of our bounce, we have our first stop here at $113,900, which aligns almost perfectly with our 4-hour tunnel. When we look, the two are almost in the same zone. We could easily go back to our 4-hour and have our bounce in this zone here. This would make us retest the first stop. And we also have an almost confluence between our 50% retracement and this fair value gap, which would allow for a support retest. By the way, at the level of our volume profile, when we look at a quarterly view, as a reminder, we stopped just before our quarterly point of control. We have a level that has been well defended. Here we have our low value, which aligns perfectly with our imbalance zone here, and our high value, which aligns perfectly with this imbalance zone here as well. At the level of our current month, we can see that our point of control has moved to $115,920, and that we are currently below our point of control, and by the way, we have had a bounce. We have come back to test our POC, and for now, our POC is pushing the price down. It's true that ideally, to see new highs, we would need to go back above this level. We have our current low value, which is below our last fair value gap here at $113,50, and our high value at $117,700. And we have our previous point of control here at around $115,000, right in this imbalance zone that is not fully filled. At the weekly level, we are in a somewhat similar context. We are in a range zone, we see that we are making exits from value, re-entry into value. Exit from value, re-entry into value. For now, we have no acceptance above the value of our week. And by the way, given that it is Sunday, our weekly volume profile is almost finalized. That is to say, we would have our high volume at $116,900, our low volume at $115,300. We can observe that we are making a POC almost at the level of the previous POC. In any case, it is a bit lower, that we are still in a somewhat weaker context given that we are not making higher POCs and that we have re-entered the value of our previous week. What we can observe here is clearly a sign of slowing down of this trend. When we compare the two weeks here, we see that we have much higher values and ascending POCs. Here, we no longer have any ascending POCs at all, and we are at a minimum in a short-term range context or in a context where we will have a trend reversal, and next week could be a bearish week precisely. That's it for Bitcoin. For Ethereum, we are still in the same consolidation context below the ATH, but in the short term, it's not great. We had already had this consolidation zone on our 4-hour tunnel, which had led to a trend reversal. A trend reversal that had allowed us to retest this zone here just above these highs. Which was rather interesting. We had returned to our reload zone from the ATH on this retracement. Then, we had a trend reversal with a break of the 15-minute. This consolidation zone with a retest of the 4-hour, which had allowed us to test this imbalance zone in the price action. And we see that we consolidated in this zone, but we didn't really manage to continue this uptrend because we had a trend reversal. Here we see that we are making a higher high, a lower high, and a lower high. Here too, the positive point is that for now, we haven't made a lower low. We are holding our support and we have returned to our 4-hour tunnel. We are below the 1-hour as well. We have our 15-minute holding the price down. So for now, it's true that the short-term trend is rather bearish. But now the zone is interesting, but the reality is that it would need to hold. By the way, in the same way as on Bitcoin, we can see that we have retested the 50% of this wick. For now, we have this zone as support with our 4-hour tunnel in confluence. When we look at the price action, we also have a nice wick here that could serve as a super location. By the way, it is in confluence with our 4-hour EMA 200, which is not far away. It's around $4,376, but the most important thing in my eyes remains the zone between $4,300 and $4,250. As a reminder, we have a huge confluence in this zone. We know that already, in terms of price action, we have a super support. We have an annual pivot level at $4,265. And we also obviously have the point of control of our quarterly volume profile, which for now is at $4,300, and which I don't think will move much by the end of the quarter. So, it's still a big zone of interest, and if we lose it, it would mark a significant loss of momentum for Ethereum, given that it would mean losing this point of control, our 4-hour tunnel, and this pivot point. So really, we are potentially arriving at a major level that should ideally hold. After, obviously, if it doesn't hold, we still have levels of interest below. That is to say, the next level of interest is this low here at $4,063, and below that, we have a large imbalance zone that remains to be filled, with our value at $3,639 as support. At the monthly level, we are re-entering our value, and we have our monthly point of control at $4,300 with our value very close. This really marks the support zone. And we remember that we were rejected at the high value of the previous month. And otherwise, at the weekly level, we can see that we have also re-entered the value. We have returned to the low value of our current week, and we are below the point of control of the week. So ideally, we would need to go back above $4,500, which is our short-term resistance zone. We see that we also have a nice alignment between the high value of the previous week and the high value of the current week, which forms a resistance zone here at $4,550. At the short-term price action level, I forgot to mention that we had a fair value gap here on 1 hour, which has been filled, and by the way, the price was rejected on a confluence between this fair value gap and our 15-minute tunnel. And we also have this nice zone at $4,576, which could serve as an ideal zone for, why not, continuing to make lower highs in this bearish trend. That is to say, in a good scenario, we could easily come back here and again make a high to test our support, which for now has not yet broken. At the relative strength level, we see that we are regaining some momentum against altcoins, but it could be because altcoins are falling faster than Ethereum. We see that we are completely collapsing against BNB, which has a lot of strength currently. We have a BNB that is making ATH after ATH. Against XRP and Solana, we are rather flat. Against Bitcoin too. And it's true that when we look at the Ethereum against Bitcoin chart, well, not much is happening. We are in a support zone, and we really have no volatility. That's it for Ethereum. And we finish with Etena. We were in an uptrend from the moment we bottomed out at the end of June, at the time of the Iran-Israel conflict. We had perfectly marked this high at the lows of September 2024, we had this bounce which allowed us to break our first stop and reach the 50% retracement from the ATH. That's a fact. What was also interesting to observe is that when we look at the volume profile over the entire trading period, we can see that we had returned to the bottom of our value, and in fact, we completely crossed the value to reach our opposite boundary. So at the high value, we made two attempts to exit our value, which for now have failed. Now, in the shorter term, when we look, well, it's not great what we can observe because we have just made this new attempt to exit this value. At the time of this attempt, we see that we have reached the highs here, and immediately afterwards, we have a trend reversal where we go back below our 15-minute. We have our 15-minute holding the trend downwards. We have returned to our 1-hour, we have a consolidation phase on the 1-hour, but still with a 15-minute holding the price down. We have returned to our 4-hour. We took the opportunity to completely fill a first imbalance zone that we had marked here on 1 hour and also on 4 hours. This zone was not respected. We see that the price had a consolidation phase in its 4-hour. The problem is that the 4-hour held the trend downwards as well, with a 15-minute continuing to hold the short-term trend. Our 4-hour imbalance here is not respected. We have the price crossing the 4-hour, we have the price being held by the 15-minute, we have our 1-hour tunnel crossing our 4-hour tunnel. Here, we are in a bearish trend. In addition, we have a cross that is about to happen here. Will it happen? I don't know. We could have a bounce that avoids the cross, in the same way that we could have had it here. That is to say, we were in a zone where the 1-hour was approaching the 4-hour. Here, the thing is that we have crossed our 4-hour downwards. However, the interesting point is that purely at the price level, we are arriving at a support zone. This would be a zone that is quite conducive to a reaction. If we don't have a reaction in this zone, it would mean that we will probably return to our daily tunnel here at 53.75 cents. Knowing that, moreover, when we look, we have a nice confluence with an imbalance in the price action here on 4 hours. Let's put it in green. When we look in more detail, we can see that we have this imbalance zone here that is not totally filled. Okay. What could be entirely possible is that we bounce in this zone here, which would allow us to seek the stops below this low here. We could also, why not, have a reaction in this wick at the 50% of this wick. These are the short-term levels of interest. Now, in case our daily tunnel doesn't hold either, the next zone is located here on this 4-hour imbalance zone that has not yet been retested, at 42 cents. At the level of our pivot points, we can see that we have almost reached our annual level. We could say that we have returned to it with a small margin of error, obviously, because obviously they are never very precise, but rather zones around a level of interest. Our annual pivot has acted as resistance, we have gone back below a quarterly level. Here too, we can see that we have respected it well on daily closing. And our next interesting level is in almost confluence with this fair value gap zone at 56 cents. And then, we have another one here in confluence with our fair value gap here at 41.31 cents. At the level of our quarterly volume profile, we can see that at the level of our current quarter, we have not managed to extract the current value. We have recently re-entered our value, and we are arriving at our quarterly point of control at 63.36 cents. Here, we hope to have a reaction at this level, which would be quite interesting because if not, it would mean that we will start to put a lot of supply at a loss. We have a significant confluence here at 54 cents because, as we remember, we have our daily tunnel, we have this value gap, and we have our quarterly low value. At the monthly level, we can see that we had exited our value, that we have re-entered, we have gone below our point of control. We have our point of control at 70.52 cents, which is acting as resistance for the moment. We are located at the current low value. This is a level that risks going down by the end of the month if we continue to fall. And for now, well, we are breaking it downwards. So, it's true that it's a rather bearish signal. We have also re-entered the value of the previous month, and we can see that we have our previous point of control at 63.33 cents, which is halfway between this fair value gap here and our imbalance zone on the wick. And otherwise, we also have the low value of our previous month, which is just above this fair value gap here at 56.65 cents. At the weekly level, we have confirmation that we are in a bearish trend. We can see that we are below the point of control of the current week, which is almost finished. We are below the point of control of the previous week, below the point of control of two weeks ago as well. We can see that right from the start of the week, by the way, we have a nice bearish reaction at the previous point of control. Here, it's quite striking at 77.33 cents. We are also exiting the value of two weeks ago and re-entering the value of the last week of August. We have an interesting level that is much lower, just below this early August low, because we have a naked weekly POC at 50 cents. So, this is a relevant level to retest in case of a correction. At the relative strength level, there are no big surprises. That is to say, since around September 10th, we have been in a bearish trend against almost everything, and for now, we don't really have any signs of reversal. So that's it for this analysis. I hope you enjoyed it. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel, like the videos, and leave comments. I wish you a good end of the day, and I'll see you next time. Bye bye.