Transcription
More protests in Iran leave the world asking if real change is on the horizon. A currency collapse further challenges Iran's fragile economy, bringing thousands to the streets. But are demonstrators demanding reform or revolution? I'm Andrea Seni and today's newsmaker is Iran.
Well, more than once before we've heard massive acts of civil disobedience in Iran would prove the gamechanger. But neither the green movement in 2009 nor the uprising following the death of Masamini just over three years ago brought any significant change to the government in Tehran. Today, however, it's the accumulation of dissatisfaction and the global geopolitical conditions that have some arguing change is now imminent. Here's a closer look at those conditions and the Iranians who've had enough.
Iran is a country experiencing a winter of discontent. A plummeting currency and skyrocketing costs of living have resulted in the biggest mass public protests the country has seen in years. What started in the final days of December as a small group of shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar protesting a further drop in the value of the rial has now turned into nationwide rallies across every province and over 100 cities and towns.
In a social media post on January 2nd, US President Donald Trump said if Iran shoots protesters, the USA would come to their aid and that the US was locked and loaded.
"There's been um protesters killed in Iran. You said we were locked and loaded, ready to go. What is the line there for when the US is going to get involved in those protests?"
"We'll take a look. We're watching it very closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they're going to get hit very hard."
The country's top judge said that anyone found supporting the riots or assisting them in line with calls from what he labeled the Zionist regime and comments made by the United States would not be shown mercy. "If anyone comes into the streets for riots or to create insecurity or supports them, then no excuse remains for them. The matter has become very clear and transparent. They are now operating in line with the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Exact figures are difficult to verify, but reports from activists and human rights groups suggest over 30 people have been killed and over 2,000 people have been arrested. Several police have also been killed.
To combat ballooning costs, Iran's president announced monetary handouts to Iranian citizens.
"We have not eliminated subsidies. Instead, we've started depositing the subsidies into bank accounts of all residents."
Individuals can receive an amount equivalent to 1 million Tomans per person per month. But 1 million Tomans is the equivalent of $7 US, a mere drop in a bucket.
Amid the protests, social media footage has emerged showing some demonstrators chanting, "Long live the Shah," referring to the late ousted former ruler of Iran, who lived in exile until his death after the revolutionary guard and the Ayatollah took over the country decades ago. The Shah's son, who does not live in Iran, has addressed the military directly via a social media post, imploring them to unite with the people.
"This is a direct message addressed to Iran's armed and security forces. You who wear a military uniform to defend the Iranian nation and who are now facing a historic choice. At a time when the brave and united people of Iran are building and writing history, my question to you is this. On which side of history will you stand? Alongside the criminals or alongside the people."
Iran has been here before. Authorities have clamped down on protests, often violently, and stared down an angry public. But previous protests have usually been in response to heavy-handed policing or a clapback against harsh moral punishments from authorities. The current unrest is a protest of the hip pocket, of basic necessities becoming unaffordable, and hungry people are desperate people.
Meanwhile, the son of the former Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, is calling for massive further protests across the country, while former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has congratulated Iranian protesters as well as the "Mossad agents walking beside them."
Well, joining me now to debate what could come next are from London, managing editor at Iran London and Kihan Life, Nazanin Ansadi; from Tehran, associate professor of world studies at the University of Tehran, Fawad; and from Washington, Republican strategist and lawyer Amanda Mackey. Thanks all so much for being with me. Nazanin, what are you expecting from here forward and what would be best for Iran in your opinion?
"Thank you very much for having me on your program. Um, number one, what we need to understand is the speed and the spread of these protests. On Tuesday, we had uh over um 30 uh 20 provinces, but today we have all provinces and in hundreds of cities that are expanding. And we also hear of various different political groups uh not only monarchists, not only supporters of Prince Reza Pahlavi, but other groups such as the seven parties, Kurdish groups, uh lawyer organizations and others joining in and asking for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. And what is very significant this time to the other uh previous demonstrations is that this demonstration, this protest is uh has a leader and that is uh Prince Reza Pahlavi who has extended his arms for cooperation, his hands for cooperation to all groups that are opposing the Islamic Republic. And what we understand and what we see on the ground in Iran are people chanting Jocha, long live the king. Not necessarily as all of them are monarchists, but it has become the single slogan that is connecting these protests together."
"Okay, Fawad, I'll let you respond to that. I mean, is that factually correct from what you're seeing in Tehran?"
"Uh, partly yes. Uh, we have the demonstrators chanting uh for the return of the Shah's son. Um, it is true that many cities experience these uh demonstrations. But as you see on your screens, uh the number of people who show up are 1,000, 2,000 people. Um, in Tehran, the most we had was about 2,000 people. Tehran is a city of over 10 million population because of the slogan that they have and Mrs. Ansari correctly pointed out to this fact that they are supporting the late Shah's son. Uh, the Shah is not a popular person in Iran. Neither is his son. The Shah was one of the corrupt, the most corrupt rulers of the 21st century. Amnesty International ranked Iran number one in the world in terms of political prisoner executions and tortures in the 1970s. The Shah killed a lot of young people in Iran and many people remember that. That is why although there there are demonstrations in Tehran very limited in other cities there are some, but there are in terms of number, there there are quite few."
"And that is that is what we see here."
"Fawad, though honestly, is is it only according to your estimates between one or two thousand people on the streets rather than the..."
"If you find the video..."
"Go ahead."
"Yeah. If you find a video that's more than 2,000 people, I'll I'll be interested to look at it. But it's not..."
"Okay."
"About 1,000, 2,000 people. It's at most. They they cannot. These people cannot get a large crowd in in big cities with millions of population. They cannot get more than a couple of thousand."
"Critics might say though the reason they can't get bigger crowds is because people are deathly afraid of of what will happen to them if they go out and protest. Do you do you think?"
"You see you you see what happens to them. Not much. You know, they throw Molotov cocktails at the police. They have killed a number of police officers. If we were in the United States, they would be shot at. You know, last night in Minnesota, we had a lady 37 years old just moved her car and she was shot."
"Okay. So the police here is very careful to make sure that people are not hurt because that's what Trump wants. Trump wants high casualties so he has an excuse to attack here."
"All right, let me move on to Amanda though because well, what will..."
"Okay, speaking of President Trump, he is threatening some kind of intervention. He says if if protesters are killed. How seriously do you take that threat and where do you see the US actually, well, to what extent the US would go to intervene in Iran?"
"Well, I take President Trump at his word, but there's still a huge gap between uh getting from uh where we are right now with protesters being killed. We've had 36 so far is the estimates that I've seen this morning. um to where America would intervene or Israel would intervene. So I think it's hard to say. I think in gesture, President Trump is certainly flexing and saying we stand with the protesters, unlike during the green movement in 2009 where President Obama did not stand with the protesters. I think President Trump is trying to distinguish himself in that sense and saying that we stand behind you. Certainly, it helps to see all this attention in the United States being put on these very brave protesters, but the reality is is that uh what Professor Fawad says is not necessarily the case when you see what they do and how they are brutal and torture people in the streets. We've seen these videos of what the Revolutionary Guard does. Um, and so it's not necessarily the case. I think uh Mahsa Amini was the really the penultimate in 2022, what they did, how they tortured her and then said she had a brain aneurysm when in fact they killed her. Now, it didn't happen during the protest, but it certainly did happen under their watch. So I think President Trump is trying to be bold, trying to stand in solidarity with the Iranian people, and that's something that we haven't seen from United States presidents in the past."
"Okay, but Amanda, very quickly, aside from President Trump, where does the US public stand? Because it has become controversial, for example, that the US went into Venezuela the way it did when President Trump had earlier said there would be no more foreign wars, there would be no regime change. Is the US behind him then on talking even threatening to do something about protests in Iran, especially after what they've what's been done in Latin America?"
"Yeah, I think it's interesting because there was a poll. Now, none of these are, you know, very scientific, but if you're asking the American people, where would you want to see um, you know, the troops that would be involved in something? Because I think after the last two decades, we've kind of been concerned about putting our money and our youth on the line to, you know, fight wars for other countries. Hence the hesitation with anything with Ukraine, just as an example. So, I think there is hesitation in the party. I think this is a very interesting issue because you have libertarian-minded members of Congress. For example, Marjorie Taylor Greene, of course, she's no longer in Congress as of this year. Um, but you have people like her, very MAGA, but also very concerned about any kind of US involvement in other wars. And then I think Rand Paul, the senator from Kentucky, he has been and his father who served in Congress always wanting to be on the side of not intervening. So this is definitely a delicate issue in that there are going to be some Democrats that are going to support what President Trump has done. For example, Senator Federman of Pennsylvania, who's a Democrat. But then there's going to be some Republicans that don't support what happens. But the overarching um message from the administration is we have to do this in order to break down what Iran and China and Russia are doing in Venezuela, for example, with Venezuela. And so I think this is a broader picture issue."
"Okay. Well, let let me ask Nazanin though, if you think genuinely the Iranian public, including these protesters, would welcome US and by default, many would argue Israeli intervention in their country? Or do you fear it? Because Israel is no friend of Iran, and even those who oppose the regime in Tehran don't necessarily want Israel stepping anywhere in their country. And here we have Mike Pompeo saying that Mossad agents are walking alongside them right now. Is this a good thing for the cause of the protesters that you feel want this revolutionary change to bring the son of the Shah back to Iran?"
"Uh, certainly um, this uh Prince Reza Pahlavi has uh stated in his recent interviews that he does not want any uh he's not welcoming any um foreign intervention in Iran. But that's not to say that it's a matter of fact that the Israeli generals and everybody else uh are saying that are comparing the IRGC to uh a Swiss cheese. They have infiltrated so much. So it is a matter of fact that uh the Islamic Republic was unable to uh really uh protect the skies of uh Iran for more than a few hours and more than 20 of their commanders uh were killed in the 12-day war. But if I may just point out a couple of uh other points to uh Mr. Fawad's uh intervention, you know, uh the pro-Iranians know the track record uh of uh the Pahlavi monarchy uh before the revolution as far as economy was concerned and as far as human rights is concerned. I mean, if you look at the track record of the Islamic Republic, only in the past year, there were uh 1,922 executions in 2025, which was more than twice the number of the previous year. And on on another note, there was also basically a survey done by the Iranian student polling agency which operates under the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution that indicated that the public dissatisfaction with the country's situation has reached more than 92%. Now, what we are seeing is defections, defections from the military, from the police, from the bureaucracy because they know after 46 years of Islamic Republic rule, what we have is only corruption, mismanagement, misprioritization of the national interest of the country. Whereas, you know, the soldiers in Iran, the IRGC, Basij are paid paid uh less than half of what the money is being sent to Hezbollah fighters, to the fighters, to Iran's proxies in Iraq, also to Hamas. So they they do compare and they see that there is uh not only uh all of these bravado uh expressions has um you know, has not really succeeded on the ground, but like the Islamic Republic, the fear has changed sides, okay?"
"From the people to the regime leaders at the moment. Okay, Fawad, let me ask you this then. If there are many Iranians even supporting the government, why aren't they taking to the streets in support? Why aren't they protesting against these US threats of intervention, these sanctions, as well as, you know, you pointed out originally, Mike Pompeo and Mossad being present? I mean, they have more reason than to be out in the streets right now than anybody in support of their government, but we're not seeing them there."
"Uh, two reasons. One, these protests, as I said, are not serious. They are few in numbers. Um, as you correctly pointed out, although people may be suffering because of uh US economic sanctions that are brought on Iranian people through Israeli lobby money, the people in the US Congress vote against Iran because they get paid for it by the Israelis. And the guy that visited Netanyahu in the middle of a genocide wants to come back to Iran. And I don't think he will come back to Iran. He's going to be another Maria Machado. You know, until last week, Trump was saying that the Venezuelan lady won the elections. Today, he says that she doesn't have support and she doesn't have respect. This is exactly what Reza has in Iran. No support. No respect. These are not serious demonstrations. As you see in your pictures, people are just marching without much hesitation. When they attack police, they may get tear gas, but generally not much is happening. And uh another reason that that people don't don't need to come. You know, we have something called Friday prayers. So before Friday prayers, after Friday prayers, the more religiously inclined people march. People are not happy with what Trump is trying to do. Trump is trying to repeat Libya in Iran. They are bringing in the devices inside Iran, weapons inside Iran."
"With Mossad agents as they're saying today. You know, this is not what they were saying in, you know, in previous times. Yeah."
"But Mossad agents are in Iran. They are trying to shoot at people. Sometimes they shoot at demonstrators because they want to get the numbers high enough for Trump to have an excuse to attack Iran. Iranians are smart enough to realize who the Shah is, who the Shah supporters are, who Trump is, who Netanyahu is. These are fascist people. The Shah was a fascist dictator. He's not going to come back. His son is not going to come back."
"Okay. Nazanin, I mean, this almost brings us full circle as to how we introduced this entire program, and that more than once before we've heard that Iran is on the verge of some kind of revolution and then it doesn't happen. And that's actually what Fawad is describing as if the media is exaggerating the size of these protests, the momentum altogether. Why are you genuinely so convinced that somehow this time is different and in the in the immediate future as well? Some people I've heard are saying that this could change tonight or tomorrow. We're looking for uh a new government uh taking over in Tehran. Why are you convinced that is the dramatic case?"
"Yeah, that's a joke."
"Hold on. Let Let Nazanin. Yeah."
"Uh, number one, I am not 100% sure that it will fall today or tomorrow. But what I do know perhaps that the internet has been severely uh restricted and maybe that's why the professor doesn't have the up-to-date information as far as the number of the..."
"Talking about the internet. This is internet we are talking. I'm at home."
"And it has been restricted. Maybe you haven't received all the videos and have. Well, obviously you haven't because your your your information is faulty. I mean, unlike previous uh demonstrations, we see the bazaars, grand bazaars uh and shopkeepers in Tabriz, Kazvin, uh they're joining in. They're closing down uh their shops. So, this time it makes it uh uh very different than the others. The gray sector of the population that had not entered into the protest in the in 2022, 2017, 2019. This time they are out on the streets. This public dissatisfaction, the professor cannot deny the public dissatisfaction with the inefficiency, mismanagement, corruption of the Islamic Republic. And what we have on the other side is an a hope for national reconciliation between not only the forces within the uh regime but for all the forces. And this is what is important. And what we also have this time that we didn't have the previous times are the number of um the law enforcement officials and police officers that are you know, sending us messages saying that they will, and we have seen in certain cities that they have laid down their arms. So these are the things that will make it different. And also one more other thing is that the Islamic Republic that you see in 2026 is not the Islamic Republic you saw in 2022. This is a a regime that has lost its teeth, its proxies and what's uh in Syria, in the Middle East. Uh, it is poor not because of sanctions, it's because of your corruption. We do receive, I mean, with even inside Iran, there are all these um files, corruption files of billions of dollars being uh siphoned off outside to outside."
"I tell you what, I'm so sorry. Uh, we we only have a few minutes left. Let me just ask Amanda very quickly because I'd like to really establish how confident you are from, you know, a Republican standpoint that something does have to give this time. I mean, most Republicans argue it does in the end come down really to the economy, that their sanctions have worked, that Iranians just won't take it anymore because their economic conditions are so bad. Does that lead you to believe that it is really different this time?"
"Look, there's been so many fits and starts with what happens in Iran. You know, again, going back to the Obama administration and um the ensuing years since, like I said, presidents have certainly not stepped in. I think a lot of people had hope that President Trump would in June. Um, I certainly talked to generals and they thought, well, for sure there's going to be an intervention now that we've gone in. The momentum is there. But it didn't happen. So really, I think if you listen to what um the the Shah's son, Pahlavi, has been saying all along is, you know, this has to come from within. This is from the inner workings of the country. Not that we put boots on the ground and all of a sudden we're invading Iran. It's that you have to dismantle this regime from within. My hope is that President Trump takes that momentum and does something with it this time. And I think the Iranian people, it's ripe for it. You're seeing that the leadership in Iran is planning an exit strategy for themselves. So maybe they're finally feeling the heat, especially with Maduro last week."
"Fawad, want potentially wanting to land a little bit."
"Very quick. I know. Yeah. Fawad and I would I know you believe it. You think it's a joke."
"The last 47 years. I'll tell you what."
"Last 47 years. These guys are saying the Iranian government will fall in six months, right? It's like Netanyahu saying that Iran will have a nuclear weapon in two months. It's a joke. Don't take them seriously."
"You know what? We'll be definitely revisiting this to see uh I don't have access to the internet."
"Okay."
"I'm talking to you internet."
"Fair enough. We'll we'll have to leave it there. Unfortunately, uh we're completely in fact, we're overtime for this edition of the Newsmakers. So, thank you so much all of my panelists for joining us, our viewers for being with us as well. Remember, you can follow us on social media. Do be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel. I'm Andrea Sanki. We'll see you next time."