Transcription
Week eight, wide receiver rankings. Big one here, and I mean big one. Something we talked about in stats versus film, the fluctuation in fantasy points at the wide receiver position. Unless you're named, you know, JSN or even Pukuna, you're going to have a bit of a roller coaster.
Now, on top of that, Thursday Night Football, five wide receivers in your starting lineups minus QJ zero, uh, would have factored into the rankings here. So, really add five to a bunch of these names that we're talking about. We're going to be discussing the top 40 slash45 if you keep in mind who played on TNF.
I was at that game. Very fun game to see. I've never been to SoFi Stadium. It is awesome. If you guys ever have a chance to go, but that was my first game since working for the Chargers actually going to see an NFL game live.
Just one day you'll tell your great grandchildren that you witnessed another 100-yard performance-ish from Aronda Gaston.
Yeah. Yeah. Who could have seen it coming? All right, let's go through this. Number one at the top, not a surprise here based on, you know, the 20-ish targets that he saw and then also who he is playing this week.
Jamar Chase against the New York Jets. Uh Hayden, let the people know with S Gardner out who the corners are for the Jets here.
Well, it's actually kind of complicated. Brandon Stevens is probably going to be facing Jamar Chase and Brandon Stevens gets cooked by everybody historically except Jamar Chase. Now, it's a tiny little sample size here, and there's a reason why the Ravens got rid of him. I do not think Brandon Stevens' going to be able to keep up what he's been doing against Jamar Chase. Pick him lobby. It's the high highest receiving yards of the week at 89 and a half, but without S Gardner, they're going to be starting a rookie outside corner. So, I think that he'll see some of the rookie, he'll see some of Brandon Stevens, but I have a very aggressive ranking for T. Higgins, too. So, you're not going to have to wait that long to hear his name. Bottom line, the team total is up at 26 points again. So that's kind of where it was when Joe Burrow would be in the picture. It's the state of the Jets, but it's also the state of what we kind of believe in with Joe Flacco at this point.
Yeah. Entirely different than the Jake Browning 17 and a half 16 and a half points. I mean, he already has 35 targets from Joe Flacco this season, which is the same number he had from Jake Browning over four games.
Uh it's pretty crazy here. Um, yeah, I had all these notes with S Gardner like when they faced off one time in their career, he only had 29 yards and six receptions, but did have a score. That's totally meaningless now. And as you said, A.J. Terrell, A.J. Terrell, a 46040 rookie quarterback going up against either T. Higgins or Jamar Chase.
I'm going to guess they're going to try to shadow Jamar Chase with Brandon Stevens just because the other guy would literally not be able to defend Jamar Chase. He's like simply too slow.
All right, next name. This might be the highest of the season. Puka Nacua at wide receiver 2 is at the New Orleans Saints.
I'm gonna say shocking but somewhat surprising. Played last week after, you know, the missing practices and being questionable if not doubtful at times.
Yeah.
Uh from your eyes, did he look mostly good out there? I mean, good enough obviously to be the wide receiver two this week.
I thought so. He was working down the field. There was a couple crossing routes that he was missing on. There was like one like double move where I thought Baker just should have scored a touchdown uh and just was a tad late. Maybe he was a tad slower, but we have another week of him to get relatively healthier. And even if he is at that limited capacity, he's going to get peppered with targets. So even though the box score wouldn't say this, it was actually a season high and expected points last week for Puka all the way at 18.1. That's because they were trailing and there was nobody else to really throw the ball to. So team total still really high despite the lack of target competition. They're going to get TZ Johnson and Kate Upton involved, but no Bucky Irving in the ground game and I think it's a totally fine uh spot in terms of the matchup as well. So, uh team total high and I thought that he played well.
A little surprised that Rashee Rice isn't your wide receiver two. I mean, again, we're splitting hairs here. He is your wide receiver three against the Washington Commanders. I mean, he was a what 55% snap player this past week. Uh but it's so clear how impactful and effective he is going to be. Uh again, he's going to own that area of the middle of the field. We saw some awesome run after catch moments, too, with him just immediately grabbing the football and putting one foot in the dirt and getting up the field and showing that explosiveness and difference-making ability he has post-catch. Uh and again, the Washington Commander defense here with Marshon Lattimore having uh an immediate downward trend in his career.
Yes, absolutely. There's a lot of injuries and then even Mike Sanders still who's had moments he hasn't been the same player. The Commanders allow the most receiving yards to wide receivers specifically when they're lined up in the slot, which is Rashee Rice's uh game. The only reason why I don't have him all the way up to the very very top of this list is because through three quarters he was only at 50% routes and he had a quote after the game that they're going to ramp him up slowly. So I would not be surprised if this is 67% routes or fewer. They have other wide receivers that kind of want to rotate in and out. That said, it was the highest neutral pass rate for the Chiefs of the season last week all the way up at 82%. You just do not see it that high ever. And they're projected for the second most points on the week all the way up at 30 at this point. So he's going to get targeted a bunch. We saw it in the red area. We saw in the back shoulder fades. It's a great spot for Rashee Rice. And if you promised me that he was going to run 80, 90, 100% of the routes. I think he would be my wide receiver one or two.
Oh, love that. I think there are eight games this weekend that have a spread of six or more. And this is the largest of the weekend at
Sec, sorry, second largest of the weekend. I don't want to shade here the Commanders that much. 12 and a half points.
That's a lot.
It is. But it makes sense. It makes sense. Oh, by the way, we'll get to this on the when I'm talking about Mahomes. The Commanders have placed four defensive ends on injured reserve. Their top two guys are like not supposed to be their top two guys. And that's just the state of the Commanders defense. As always on Saturdays, we have our quarterback and tight end preview show which kind of turns into like a matchups preview for each game. Yes. So definitely go and watch that if you haven't in previous weeks.
A nice matchup here. CeeDee Lamb at the Denver Broncos. He's had 100-plus yards in every game he's completed start to finish this season. But this Broncos secondary has allowed just one touchdown to wide receivers this year. Fascinating part here because on paper Hayden, I think a lot of people would just assume that Patrick Surtain is going to follow CeeDee Lamb around. He hasn't typically played in the slot, just 20 slot snaps so far this season. So do you expect the uh diversification to be of his snaps?
That's the whole name of the game. So he's had five snaps or fewer as a slot corner in every single game the last two years. The exception was in week 17 against Jamar Chase. Do they view CeeDee Lamb in that Jamar Chase role? I'm not sure. Also, do they view George Pickens as somebody worthy of getting shadowed cover on the outside? I don't know for sure. Most likely CeeDee Lamb's not going to be shadowed by Patrick Surtain, but I do think it's possible. Um, I'm ranking CeeDee Lamb ahead just because stylistically Patrick Surtain and George Pickens would be a good matchup and I feel like they would rather, you know, like shut down George Pickens as much as possible and then let the scheme and their just safeties and whatever kind of handle uh CeeDee Lamb as best as they can.
To be honest, this is why you bring in someone like George Pickens or another outside player because when you have an inside to outside guy like CeeDee Lamb,
then they have to choose. You know, every team doesn't have two corners. Some of them don't even have one. But when they do have someone to the degree of Patrick Surtain, which you know, not many teams do, if any, uh, then you have to make this choice, right? Do you follow the inside to outside guy
at all times and then leave the great outside presence in George Pickens or do you let CeeDee Lamb run free
every single time? So, it puts defenses in a bind immediately just by your personnel.
Yeah, it really does. I mean, it's such a great trade that they made for Pickens and he's gonna make a hundred million dollars because of it. But I was listening to Surtain uh on the podcast and he was naming his top five wide receivers and Jamar Chase was really high up there and CeeDee Lamb uh made that um as well. And then also when he was a prospect, they asked him who's the most difficult wide receiver you've ever faced and his answer was CeeDee Lamb. So fascinated by what they're going to do here.
Let's stick in that game. Your wide receiver five is Courtland Sutton. Uh I'm not sure if he's ever ranked this high.
There's no way. Again, this Cowboys defense uh is one that can be picked on. I mean,
they typically play man around like 30th rate in the NFL, more zone coverage.
If you look at the snap or I should say uh the >> the metrics for how Courtland Sutton uh gets his fantasy production. Most of it is versus man than versus zone so far this year. But at the same time, we're talking about the Cowboys secondary and they're just blown coverages at all points and safeties are all out of whack or slow and the quarterbacks. We don't even know who's playing in those spots.
Nope. Yeah. Donovan Wilson with an elbow injury. Their safety. He hasn't practiced. And then Trevon Diggs is not going to play with a concussion. They're not even saying how he got it. They just know it's at his at his house. It sounds like there could be a freaky situation going on with the Diggs stuff. Either way, the Cowboys haven't been able to stop anybody. Third most receiving yards to wide receivers, specifically when they're lined up on the outside. It's an obvious spot we want to target. Everybody knows that. Just wanted to mention Courtland Sutton. If I look at just the last 365 days on the calendar and look at half PPR points per game among wide receivers. Courtland Sutton is the wide receiver 13 over an 18-game sample. But like you said, we have a bunch of wide receivers who rank ahead of him in that metric who are either on bye, which like half of them or injured players like Malik Neighbors. So if you only look at the available players for the rest of the week and that if you especially if you remove the Justin Jeffersons and the Lad McConkeys who just played, he's like fifth, sixth or seventh. So it's we have to treat him seriously. The pick 'em lobby loves him at at 59 and a half and sometimes the the the Broncos like don't they want to like do this like kind of manufactured touch nonsense. Just throw the ball off to Courtland Sutton who's defending him.
Fair. Next, Drake London, wide receiver six. Do you buy into the Darnell Mooney splits? And if you want me to recite the Darnell Mooney splits with him, I can. Um, I have it at 6.8 expected points with Darnell Mooney and then 19.6 expected points without him. There's the Rome home road splits as well. I think it's largely just noise like it's a little bit more target competition. Um, so I'm curious what your thoughts and then we can get to the matchup.
No, this is just one of those talking points, narratives that is brought up after about what, six games played together or not.
Um,
that gets recited all throughout, you know, fantasy football content. And I'm not saying it's wrong. It could definitely be right.
Uh, I just don't know if I buy into it. Like, like, we both think Darnell Mooney and Drake London are good at their jobs and so it would make sense for both to get the football. I to me actually there is more of hey, quality defenses that Michael Penix is playing against. That will limit his ability. Yes. Uh I would not put the Miami Dolphins in a quality defense. And at the same time, I would actually lean more into the home road splits for Michael Penix as well and we get Drake London here at home attached to Michael Penix. So like again, when you pressure Michael Penix, he's going to be really bad so far this season and when you move him off the spot, he's really bad and this Dolphins team has not been able to cover or rush anyone. So I feel really good about this Drake London stuff even if Darnell Mooney plays and it's one of those scenarios Hayden, we talked about the rushing performance, if you know this high point total, they get there by passing, both guys can get there in this game too.
Yeah, that those are all my exact notes. Like whether this you believe in the splits or not, you also have to look at what's the projections for this week. And the Falcons are supposed to score 26 points at home against the worst secondary in the NFL. And you mentioned it, one of the worst pass-rushing groups in the NFL. So I think what you're saying is true. Like Michael Penix, he's just been erratic and there's pressure splits with him moving him off his spot. So if he has a clean pocket, to me, that's the split that we should believe in the most is just is he going to be under pressure? Is the defense he's facing going to be taking away these sideline throws that he wants to hit on? Or is Drake London going to be lined up in the slot and be able to sit in zone coverage and then win his one-on-ones? And I think all of that is true in this one. And I don't really care about the pressure numbers just because Miami has not proven that they can do that.
Right? Like if you want to look at it and say, "Oh, well, Drake London is not going to get 51% of the targets like he got when Darnell Mooney is not."
Yeah. You know,
agree. He was not going to average 20 fantasy points this year. Yeah.
Could could he still get to, you know, 27% targets? 100%. Yes. You know, and 27% targets is totally fine. We're not expecting a 51% target rate.
Yes. The splits will prove true because he was averaging 20 fantasy points per game. Could he still be the wide receiver seven on the week? Yes.
All right, Zay Flowers, who we haven't talked about in a while,
is your wide receiver seven here. This is against the Chicago Bears. I'll let you dive into the individual stuff and we'll talk about this more on the quarterback show.
The Ravens have to win this game. Point blank period. Like this is their season kind of in a nutshell.
Yep. Ronnie Stanley and Lamar Jackson are both playing. I'm assuming they are going to play at full capacity. I know Lamar hasn't practiced in full, but this has been a while and they took their time with that injury. They're projected for 28 points as a team, so I feel good about that. In weeks one and two, it's a small sample here, but that's when this offense was actually clicking. And in those games, not only was Zay Flowers like just getting there and the amount of expected points and just he was playing well, but the the per drop back numbers were even better than that because they had some crazy leads in that game where if we can start like mapping out that they're going to drop back even more than those two games, Zay Flowers, I think, has a really underrated ceiling. So, I'm pretty much throwing out all of the Cooper Rush data. And then on top of that for the matchup, the Bears are allowing 15.1 yards per reception to wide receivers, and that's the key number because that's how Zay Flowers gets home. They don't have Jaylen Johnson, their top corner. He's on injured reserve. Tyreek Stevenson, he's probably not going to play this week. He has he hasn't practiced much. And then even uh Kyler Gordon's back on the injury report, who's been a slot corner who can play outside as well. So there's there's some issues in the secondary right now for Chicago. And uh I want to lean into Lamar Jackson being fully back.
Yeah. And Chicago's defense has somewhat taken a turn in terms of playing well, but they're still like allowing yards. They're still allowing chunk gains. They've just turned the football over, which kind of masks some other things. And so if Lamar Jackson doesn't turn the football over, then to me, we could have a very big Derrick Henry week and we can have a big Zay Flowers week on top of it.
Okay, Chris Olave is wide receiver eight for you.
Love Chris Olave. What we've seen so far this season is, you know, he's gotten there in a high volume, low ADOT, and then recently high ADOT, lower volume, big touchdown type things. And so, get you a guy that can do both. And uh hopefully Spencer Rattler can get it to him against this Todd Bowles defense.
You when I was just thinking about Chris, like the the trade and extension candidate, I was like, in the first part of his career, he was a downfield threat only, and then the beginning of this year, he's been just exceptional and on the underneath route. So, he's he's one of the better wide receivers in the league. He's been healthy this entire year. The Saints have a higher than normal team total above 21 points. I mean, there's been some weeks where they're at 16, 17, 18. Uh they're playing against a pass-funnel Buccaneers team. They're not going to have their starting center, which scares me overall. But there's no way that they're going to like think about running the ball in this game. They're going to have to pass the ball like crazy. And then with Chris Olave's usage, it's not just downfield or underneath. It's outside or or in the slot. In this last game, all three of his explosive, his touchdowns and his big plays were either motioned in the slot or just against the nickel corner, which is good because Kellen Moore is like trying to find the weak spots of the defense with Chris Olave and then Rashid Shahid. So, only caveat here is he's dealing with an ankle injury. DNP and limited, don't have Friday's practice report. They think he's going to play here, but in a perfect world, he was fully healthy. Um, but I'm running out of like clear-cut options and he's been the wide receiver 13 this month.
Yeah, look, we love Chris Olave. Uh was one of my highest drafted players entering this season. It does speak to who has already played on Thursday Night Football and the by-weeks that he finds himself here in the top eight wide receivers.
Yeah, definitely. So,
feel a lot better about the running backs this week. Let's put it that way.
By the way, if you look at the projections, the top 12 running backs are projected for like 20, 25 points and like the top receivers is like 16, 17, you know, and it drops off pretty fast. I think Noah sent us that uh Bijan Robinson now has one of like the three highest projected yardage totals of all time over and under this week.
And and then like 30 minutes later he hit us back up in Slack and said and Jonathan Taylor's ahead of him.
So it's going down on the running back episode.
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That was kind of my notes. It's a bad matchup, but what else are you gonna do?
You do.
It's in a dome. So, I'm largely, you can't completely throw out what happened last week because it's like, all right, the bottom is in with Tua. But also, you're not facing Miles Garrett and Denzel Ward in that weather when both teams are not even trying to pass the ball and when they do, it's going to the other way. It's a it's still going to be A.J. Terrell who's playing very well and they haven't got a good scheme and Tua can kind of panic and this defense is trying to create panic. But I'm just looking at this team still has 150, 200 plus passing yards almost every single game. Who else is it going to at this point? So that's where I'm at. I like, you know, the duo that the Falcons brought in and some of their, you know, other picks have come into fruition here and Jeffrey is making the play at a high level. But uh like you said, the bottom was in for the Dolphins last week and you kind of write it off to me for weather stuff and I just think we're going to have enough of a platform for the Dolphins to do it.
With that said, Hayden, prior to the season, we did say
it's going to be one thing or the other, one side or the other. There's no middle ground here for the Dolphins. Either they look really good like they did a few years ago. Yeah.
Or it's absolute chaos and total meltdown. And we have clearly hit absolute chaos and total meltdown target.
At least without Tyreek Hill and without Darren Waller for him. That's the only caveat.
Michael Pittman, your wide receiver 10. This is against the uh Tennessee Titans. We talked about in stats versus film. Feels like no team has more wide receivers wide ass open than the Indianapolis Colts. It's like these hinge routes into zone coverage and working away from leverage. Yeah.
Constantly. Uh and this is the largest spread of the weekend. Yes. Your Indianapolis Colts are 14 and a half point favorites here against the Tennessee Titans.
It's hard to be be over that like 13 and a half little hook and they've cleared that and more. So, this is this is like rare um territory. And the Colts are over 31 points now and their team total as well. Since we've learned about this matchup, L'Jarius Sneed, their top corner has been placed on injured reserve. He's not going to play and he was going to see Michael Pittman in this one. And then defensive player of the year candidate, defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons has not practiced. I don't think he's going to play here. So, the Titans defense already bad without the guys that make the most money uh on the on the entire team. So, it's just flipping coins who's scoring the touchdowns. Now, that's a tough game because they have what five or six guys on the team that can that are capable of doing that. And that's the only reason why I have them low. But, there will be yards and touchdowns in this one. Big talking point here because you have DeVonta Smith as wide receiver 11 and then you have A.J. Brown who up on the board right now as wide receiver 14, just a couple spots difference. Uh we'll talk about the A.J. Brown injury in just a moment and if he's going to play. First, let's just talk about outright ranking DeVonta Smith over A.J. Brown because you know
heading into fantasy football seasons, A.J. Brown is constantly selected ahead of DeVonta Smith. Yet you and I each week on stats versus film or these wide receiver shows point out that actually over the last 365 days, DeVonta Smith has flat out outscored A.J. Brown on a per game basis.
Yep. They're like the wide receiver 22 and wide receiver 30. So it's pretty close, but DeVonta Smith is straight up beating him. And
this is a week where I think both of these guys have a chance to really pop off. The Giants have been struggling through the air. Xavier Holland, their like big prize possession free safety. He hasn't practiced this week. Uh A.J. Brown hasn't practiced. So that's good news for DeVonta Smith even if A.J. Brown does play. Um he's been dominant down the field and the Giants historically play a lot of man coverage and typically teams facing man coverage throw the ball to their wide receivers more so than a zone defensive team. So this is a really good spot. On top of that, the Giants are second worst in yards allowed to wide receivers lined up in the slot. That's another bonus point for DeVonta Smith. So like truly do love both of them in this spot. But I I want to pay attention to, you know, the the sample size of 20 games between these two guys where DeVonta Smith is beating him in points.
And when you look at their actual film this season, we've discussed that
A.J. Brown doesn't look as sudden. DeVonta Smith just looks like a better football player. Both got there last week and both can get there again.
And I believe Paulson Adebayo has also missed practice and may have been ruled out for this game as well. So that's their corner and safety.
On top of Okay, next. Well, this team wasn't going under center with Joe Burrow either, but T. Higgins and the Cincinnati Bengals. We talked about with Jamar Chase. In fact, I believe Joe Flacco already has like more snaps under center than Joe Burrow has in like a four, five, six game sample previous.
Yeah. I mean, just listening to Joe Flacco talk about this offense is just like stuck with me. He just laughs because he has these two alien wide receivers and he just throws the ball to them and like he doesn't even need to know the plays. So, that's that's where we're at. We talked about it. No Sauce Gardner means you're gonna get Brandon Stevens on Jamar Chase most likely and then a 20-year-old early declare rookie out of Florida, Florida State. A.J. Thomas, who I didn't love as a prospect. He was one of these guys where like in theory you can have like a legion of boom like lengthy uh corner that kind of that can like press guys or play the cover three uh and just be hard to throw the ball against. And then I saw just like did not have the athleticism. He had eighth percentile speed and I just thought that his footwork was kind of out of control. So I thought he needed time to develop. Well, guess what? There's no time to develop. Sauce Gardner's out and now you have to go face T. Higgins. So I think it's just a really good spot for T. Higgins. And even if it was a a veteran corner, the Bengals are projected for 26 points. Like we have to take this offense like very serious. That's well well above average. And this team is like not known for running the ball. So, I I'm not treating T. Higgins like he has Joe Burrow, but it's a lot closer to the Joe Burrow offense than the Jake Browning one.
Okay, let's talk about Romeo Doubs. He's your wide receiver 13 here, and it was an electric start for him this season. Wide receiver 21, 4, 8, and 17. Then they had the bye week, and now it's been wide receiver 60 and wide receiver 63. Obviously, with, you know, by weeks right now and injuries and all that type of stuff, people don't have the luxury of questioning if Romeo Doubs should be in starting lineups. But do you think this is a bounce-back spot for him against these Baltimore Ravens secondary on the road?
Big time. And then in those last two games, there was a touchdown called back for a penalty that had nothing to do with the play. So, and he's been missed on a couple throws, which is part of, you know, playing with Caleb Williams at this point, but he's been way better than what the last two weeks um have said. They also have not been like in negative game script in a long time and they're expected to lose by a touchdown against the Ravens who I think people might be underelling what their offense is capable of now that they're fully back and healthy. So if the Bears corners are all banged up and you got Lamar Jackson, could this just be a spot where even though they want to play kind of a balanced offense, they are not able to. And then when that is the case, it's it the ball goes to Romeo.
Yeah, when they lost to Minnesota and Detroit in weeks one and week two. Obviously week one they were up on the scoreboard quite a bit. Uh he was the wide receiver 21 and wide receiver four. Especially that Lions one. I mean, yeah, they got dominated in that one. I'm not expecting him to get dominated quite like that again. But uh we know Romeo Doubs went nuts in that game.
Yep. Yep.
Before we go anywhere else, if you want to support us, the best way of doing that is to support Underdog. Yes. Underdog. We're in 41 of 50 states right now. Whether it be Champions, pick 'em drafts with Battle Royale or prediction markets or even sports books. Uh you can play on Underdog. That wasn't the case a couple years ago. To those of you who've been watching and leaving comments for years, years, seasons, and seasons, now you can probably play on Underdog. California, Florida, Texas, all these places. So, best way to do that, click the link in the description down below. Use promo code THE SHOW. Uh, and if you play $5 your first time, we'll throw a hundred bucks of bonus cash in your direction. That is promo code THE SHOW and you can go play right now any sport you want. Underdog. Next, George Pickens, wide receiver 15. This is at the Denver Broncos. We already talked about the CeeDee Lamb side of this. Anything else you want to add here about Pickens?
I think most likely scenario is he doesn't get shadowed by Patrick Surtain, but he matches up with him for a lot of it. His two quietest games in in like targets were the games when he faced Sauce Gardner and Quinnin Mitchell. He still had a couple big plays against them and he's capable of beating Patrick Surtain on a couple plays, but Dak Prescott like is kind of a decision-making assassin. And if he sees CeeDee Lamb not being defended by Pat Surtain, then I do think the ball is going to go that way often. Now, that's like the one case scenario. The other scenario is Pat Surtain sees a lot of CeeDee Lamb by choice and all of a sudden George Pickens goes crazy. So I'm trying to not middle ground it. I think that Patrick Surtain's likely to see George Pickens, but I'm not writing off George Pickens either. Pick 'em lobby 55 and a half receiving yards, which is well well ahead of the playable mark. Um and he's kind of in line with the rest of this this kind of tier. So he's going to be a boom bust guy. Uh but I do trust um Dak Prescott and this game quietly. Fastest paced game of the week.
Let's talk about Stefon Diggs. This is a very difficult matchup for this Patriots offense against the Cleveland Browns. Luckily, they do get them uh at home, which is a slight bump down here for this Browns defense. Uh Stefon Diggs over the last four weeks against Carolina, wide receiver 21. Against Buffalo, wide receiver five. Then we get the Saints on the road, that's wide receiver 56. And the Titans on the road, wide receiver 26. So I know whenever you and I watch Stefon Diggs, it's very clear that he is this team's best wide receiver. But with how Drake May is throwing the football downfield and spreading it around to either Hunter Henry or Kahan Booty or whoever else, we're not getting like that, you know, funneled target share in the direction of Stefon Diggs here. And aside from the Bills game, the revenge game, he's been more like 75% routes than a full-time player because, you know, they got to get the wide receiver five involved and whatever else. And they run two tight end sets. So, it's it's not super straightforward. I I will say I just don't think they're going to even try to run the ball in this one. They have been the worst rushing offense in the NFL in terms of EPA per play. It's not even close. And then you're going to what? Now is going to be the time we're going to do it against uh the Browns who it's it's no longer just Miles Garrett. They have two stud defensive tackles in the mix as well. So, it's going to be uh I think an avenue to throw the ball. Uh he will have to see some Denzel Ward here, but not at all times. So, I think it's in general an underrated like fine enough matchup, above average team total, and I think they're going to have to be pretty pass-heavy just by the looking at the matchup. DK Metcalf is wide receiver 17. This is against the uh Green Bay Packers. We know his quarterback will want to throw on this Packers defense, but not hang in the pocket long enough for Rashan Gary and Micah Parsons and Ben and whoever else to attack him at the uh, you know, drop back spot. So, what do you expect here for DK Metcalf who has I think been one of the weirder wide receivers in fantasy football this year in terms of low ADOT, but he's like breaking open these weird plays and so it's making him a legitimate fantasy asset.
This month he's a wide receiver nine on wide receiver 37 usage. We've talked about how he's like due to come back to us and then he just hasn't been. So, it's been like double moves on the perimeter. He had that one where he crossed the face of Harrison Smith and went all the way to the house. Uh, I'm going to continue to middle ground this one. Um, there's a chance the Steelers are behind. It's supposed to be a close game here. The Packers defense has kind of handled players like DK Metcalf pretty well. So, Marvin Harrison held to 6.8, which you know happens. T. Higgins at 8.7, Terry McLaurin at 7.3, Jameson Williams down at 4.6, George Pickens like really got him. So, we'll see. The the ADOT stuff is also interesting though because if they are trying to get the ball out fast so he doesn't get wrecked by Micah Parsons. DK Metcalf's been part of that too. He's like not doing the full Davante Adams stuff but some of the checks and quick game at the line of scrimmage. DK Metcalf has been part of that. So I'm kind of middle grounding this. You can flip him with Stefon Diggs in our rankings here. Um pick 'em lobby is at 60 and a half receiving yards. I'm not fully buying into the the per game metrics with Metcalf, but he is also like their only receiver that they get involved. That is true. But they do have three tight ends that get the football team.
That's also very true. And a couple backs.
Xavier Worthy is your wide receiver 18. Um, this is against the Washington Commanders. After being the wide receiver 18 in points in his return, he's been the wide receiver 46, 26, and 44. I do wonder if we're ever going to get back to a consistent despite how good this Chiefs passing attack has been. Yeah. Consistent top 16 wide receiver for him because of this torn labrum stuff. Uh he might just not be right for the entire season. And obviously you have Rashee Rice in the fold as the commanding top target here.
I agree this is not going to be a straightforward projection, but I think by the end of the year when we average this thing out, he's going to be a really nice pick. So I actually have him ahead of George Pickens even. I I moved him up just because
you look at the Commanders defense and you talked about like the Marshon Lattimore, like that's who Worthy is going to be going up against for a lot of this game. The Commanders have allowed more yards on 15-plus airyard targets than anybody in the league. So downfield uh targets are being converted. That's kind of the Xavier Worthy role now that Rashee Rice is back. So without Rashee Rice, he's going to lose some of the manufactured stuff, but he's going to pick up some more downfield work. Uh and the Commanders have not been able to uh hold down those those pass attempts. And then last week before garbage time, he was out there for 84% of the routes. Clearly the wide receiver one in terms of snaps. They're going to pass the ball. They're expected to score a bunch of points. So I think the week-to-week consistency is going to be hard to find, but I mean if you can get me a a near full-time wide receiver on this offense, that's that's a player we want to start.
Next up, Romeo Doubs. He's the Packers' top target.
He's their top wide receiver. He's the most consistent presence there. Uh look,
I would say the Packers, and this is a narrative for them, and it kind of makes sense when you watch them. They play to their competition. Technically, I think the Packers are way better than the Pittsburgh Steelers are, even if their records are somewhat similar, but they might play to that level. And it just, you know, carries itself out in the passing game, which kind of looks disjointed at times and can't get a rhythm and and flow going. And Hayden, to me, that's because
they run the ball effectively and sufficiently,
but when Jordan Love hits his back foot, he just wants to like launch missiles down the field. And there's not a lot of the intermediate game at all to this uh scheme on the passing game.
Totally agree. And that's not just this year. Like that's just how Jordan Love has always kind of played and LaFleur just leans into it, which I I don't think it's a bad thing at all. I think that's the most efficient offense, but you're going to kind of go through some lulls where the downfield stuff's not clicking and then when it does click, it looks like one of the best offenses in the league. So, um, Romeo Doubs is somewhat a part of that downfield passing attack, but he's also kind of their reliable like it's third and six, we need just like a slant route type of wide receiver. And that's where the Steelers have like specifically been just drilled against. So, under 10 air yards, the Steelers have allowed the fourth most yards to wide receivers. And I think with Christian Watson back with Mackie Golden in the mix, those are your clear-out guys and the Steelers have had some communication issues and just some issues in general um underneath and that's a little bit more Romeo Doubs. But just in general this month, wide receiver 10 on wide receiver nine usage. I don't think anyone kind of treats him that way. I'm not ranking him as aggressively as that, but I think a lot of people are like, "Oh, this is just like some wide receiver four." I think he's more than that. Uh right now,
Jalen McMillan, rookie wide receiver, Carolina Panthers against the Buffalo Bills secondary, a secondary that's gotten picked on so far this season. This is your wide receiver 20. Uh and he gets Andy Dalton at quarterback on Sunday.
There's some injuries in Buffalo we need to pay attention to. Um like Taylor Rapp, for example, their safety. He's not going to play in this one, but it just really comes down.
Positive or or a negative for the Bills defense?
That's a fair question. That's definitely fair. Um defense. They're missing defensive tackles, Matt Milano's on the injury report. Those ones I do think actually matter. The question with this game is can Buffalo go crazy against Carolina uh on offense and force Carolina into passing the ball? They want to run the ball. Um will they be able to um stick in that game script or are they going to have to drop back? When they do drop back, Jalen McMillan's in a good spot. I don't think that they have like the cornerback group in the safety play right now. So, he's a wide receiver 31 on wide receiver 33 usage this month. We know he can be better than that. It just comes down to the Panthers and their game script.
Yeah. If the Panthers are going to win, they're going to rush for over 200 yards. It's that simple. Now, they're heavy underdogs in this game. And so, you would expect them not to win, and we have seen, you know, when the Panthers go down, uh, they just throw the football a lot. Now, that was a bit of a different formula than it's been the last three games, but I'm excited to see Jalen McMillan against non-Sauce Gardner quarterbacks once again.
Yes. Yes.
S Gardner did a great job versus him last week. He's good.
Um, next is Deebo Samuel. Uh, I believe both Deebo and Terry McLaurin were practicing uh, last time I checked on Thursday. I don't think we've gotten the Friday reports as of this time, but we know McLaurin has missed multiple weeks and Deebo missed last week too with this heel injury.
I'm expecting both of them to play maybe not at full capacity and Marcus Mariota is going to draw the start. The team total is at only at 17.5 points. Like that's Tennessee Titans, you know, Cleveland Browns kind of area. Um, and the Chiefs have been fourth best against fantasy wide receivers and they can really, you know, scheme scheme it up with Spags. So, not a good spot. Just want to quickly hit on the splits with Deebo Samuel because he's played three games with Terry and three games without him. In the three games with Terry McLaurin, uh, that's at 9.7 expected half PPR points. Uh, without Terry McLaurin, that's at 11 and a half. So that doesn't make sense. He's a little bit less involved when Terry's on the field. And then Terry has just been outclassed by Deebo Samuel so far in a small sample. So don't love either of them. I'm running out of wide receivers to start over Deebo Samuel though.
Yep. Because here's the rest of this list. Khalil Shakir is wide receiver 22. You know, in the bye-week
I'm sure the Bills said, "Okay, our passing attack hasn't been great." and then the rushing game we've kind of gotten away from the last two weeks. The thing is with a passing attack and Duncan Kane might play, but I'm just not sure what they can change because this is their personnel and this is how they do it. You know, they get the ball out quickly and when they don't then it's hero ball from Josh Allen and Cle Shakir when he's gotten there so far this season, he's had crazy 60 plus yard catch and runs and he can do that. But at the same time, again, this is >> how you play when you spread the football around and don't have a primary pass catcher.
I agree on all fronts. At least Josh Palmer with a knee injury hasn't practiced. Alton Concade was limited before the last time last game and then he was not able to play. He's still limited in practice. So don't know about him. I think they just want to do this like short quick game passing offense which quite frankly is I think pretty bad for what they have with Josh Allen. You don't see Josh Allen ripping downfield throws and intermediate throws. I think that's a personnel issue, but also >> yeah, >> who he throw them to, I guess, is my thing, too.
>> Could we at least see Khalil Shakir try it, you know? >> But at the same time, it's it's it's not like the GM is working not in unison with the coaches. Like, right, this is them working together and this is the type of formula they created together and it's just not as fun right now. It kind of feels like the same problems the Chiefs were going through the last couple years where you have this incredible talent and then a lot of the offense is just like dinks and dunks and you're like you can see some superhero moments but like when you seen just Josh Allen ripping huge post routes and goes and stuff and I think that's kind of frustrating.
Long story short, I think they're going to have to go to Kosha here more. I think the first part of the season he's coming back from that uh training camp injury that should be no longer a part of the the the setbacks. Josh Palmer's out of there. Don Concinc Kade's been a limited player recently because of injury and this game is expected to be a little bit closer than you kind of would have thought based off the point spread. So, I think he's a start actually moving him ahead of Debo Samuel even.
>> There we go. What about Alec Pierce? Uh gonna have a big contract coming his way this offseason from someone. Uh we know Shane Syen has been using him in the intermediate and downfield range. A lot of these outside inside breaking routes on top of it. Uh and here he gets the Tennessee Titans who like we talked about with Michael Pitman uh down numerous defensive players who are already down roster. >> Wide receiver 26 in usage this month. Colts are first in projected points. No legious snee. I don't think Jeffrey Simmons is going to play here. Everything about this is is a good week for a spike week for Alec Pierce. He doesn't get as much layup targets and stuff. So he needs some big plays, but at least we're seeing more uh you know just branches on the route tree.
>> Rest of season, who do you think scores more points? Alec Pierce or Josh Downs? >> I'm gonna rank Alec Pierce ahead. I mean, >> and Pierce is the one that's available in a whole bunch of competitive leagues, you know, like I just picked him up >> uh in in a home league that I'm in. Um >> because, >> you know, just the style of player he is hasn't really gotten to fancy points in the past and now we're almost eight weeks into the NFL season and this is an entirely different offense and it's one that spreads the ball out to every section of the field. Everybody else I'll be rankings in the low 40s or 30 yards for receiving. If you're going to have a wide receiver like that, might as well have him be on the team projected for the most points.
>> 31 cool points this week for the Colts. Rashid Shahed, Tampa Bay. Um, anything else you want to add here about the Saints passing attack? >> Put him right next to Khalil Shakir. Um, and head of Debo with Rasheed Shahid. It's the same thing with Alve. just passfunnel Buccaneers. They're probably not going to have their their top uh edge rusher in Assan Reic. The team totals rock solid at 21 and a half versus where it was previously and Shahed could ball. So, I think this is a spot where you can dream of a big play, especially if the Buccaneers offense goes crazy on the Saints defense, which has been largely problematic. Could you get just a passfunnel game script for Rasheed Shiit here? I think it's totally possible.
Juan Dale Robinson, first Giants wide receiver discussing here this at the Philadelphia Eagles. We all know what happened in that historic Thursday night football game a couple weeks ago uh with this passing attack and the Giants just flat out winning that game. >> Did Scott have three rushing scores in that one too? >> Yeah. Oh, yeah. So, >> you know, game script predicted points certainly not favoring uh the Giants to put up that many, just 18 this week. But if they're working from behind, they're going to throw the football. And if it's not to two tight ends, it's two Wale Robins.
>> It is. Darius Sllayton says he's going to come back though with a hamstring injury. So that's a little bit more target competition. I mean, like it is a lot more target competition because the other guy was Lil Jordan Humphrey who I think ran like 40 routes and didn't get a target last week. So it's like actual and not that Darius Sllayton's been getting a bunch of targets this year, but it's something he's gonna see Cooper Deene in the slot. Um the team total is really low for the Giants. Like I have a lot of faith in Jackson Dart trying to keep this like somewhat competitive, but that may not always translate to the slot wide receiver getting involved. So, not my favorite spot, but he's more involved than a lot of the other receivers we're talking about.
>> And I misspoke. I said that if it's not targeting him, then it goes to tight ends. Sometimes it can be targeted at Well Robinson and still go to the tight end. >> Yes, he should have got fantasy points for that. It's an assist.
Darno Mooney, the splits. People love them, people hate them. Uh, you and I for a while have said that Darno Mooney is an underrated fantasy asset. He really hasn't been able to show it until these last couple weeks because of injuries and everything else. Uh, but rest of Weey, hopefully you kind of have Darno Mooney here because they just flat out cut Ray Mloud when I think I mentioned maybe on this program last week that something was weird about him being active and inactive and the faces and gremises he was giving the locker room. And so really, it's a two wide receiver set team. and David freaking Sills might be getting wide receiver snaps here for the Falcons in 2025.
>> Yeah, I agree on all those points. We also mentioned earlier in the year when we were watching his film, he didn't look right and he was dropping the ball and he had that shoulder injury, but he also picked up that hamstring injury. And then last week, I thought his film was excellent. It reminded me exactly what he was doing last year where it was big double moves, big out routes. Now, the Michael Penn accuracy has been an issue and I think Michael Pennix is going to play, but it's not a a given either. But in the three healthy games with Mooney, 9.4 expected half PPR points. That's wide receiver 33 usage. That's kind of where he was last year. That's kind of where I have him in this week's rankings. Uh and it's a good spot um in terms of just passing EPA.
>> There it is. Big question this week is who's filling in for Mike Evans? Uh because Chris Godwin is not going to play this week either, right? So >> yeah, >> how you have it ranked is 1455 pounds of Tez Johnson who is like a break dancer out there on the field after catch sometimes like doing flips, doing hurdles, spinning around.
>> Uh I can't wait to watch TZ here as your wide receiver 27. >> Yeah, he's the man. He you'll have a lot of fun whether he gives you three fantasy points or 12. Um, it's kind of one or the other because he's a big play threat and we'll see if Baker Mayfield's going to be accurate this week. It was nice that he scored that wild touchdown on a screen. So, he is somebody that you can't toss a screen to and he like hurdled a guy, spin moved a guy, and that was just a fascinating play. So, big team total as usual for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He's playing all the snaps uh right now and he's coming off his best game of the season last week when they were chasing points. I'm not sure if we're going to get that game script, but it's a it's a fun matchup for him. So, I think among dart throws, are you gonna have more fun with him versus Jerry Judy and, you know, Keon Coleman and Troy Franklin? I think you'll have the most fun with Tess.
>> Well, let's talk about a rookie here because Matthew Golden is up next and it was a nice start for him against the Arizona Cardinals. He had multiple manufactured touches and Hayden that is now leading me into the pick him lobby where his first quarter receiving yards one and a half this week. If we get Laflur >> wanting to game plan and diagram some stuff. We know that his guy is Matthew Golden in this offense. I'm going to take that higher on one and a half receiving yards. was also just a half first quarter reception because truly Matthew Golden goes from three or four touches in multiple games in the first quarter then not having anything basically until the fourth quarter again. So it's part of the uh 10ame script that he's a major emphasis on and then he kind of disappears the rest.
>> I can't disagree with any of that. So we've gotten a little bit of a post by rookie bump but we can't really you know bank on it. They're going to get Christian Watson back this week but they're probably not going to have Dantavian Wix. So, let's largely call that a wash. He's playing enough snaps to matter. He just has to hit on his downfield shots or just take a yard after the catch to the house because in the red area, they don't throw the ball and um we just have not seen the long touchdown yet. There's been options for it, but we're just rolling the dice. So, he's kind of like the Jameson Williams and that tier wide receiver. Boom bust wide receiver three.
>> DJ Moore is your wide receiver 29 at the Baltimore Ravens. It's really interesting. Uh, you know, in other seasons he might be listed higher than this. In other weeks, earlier this season he might be listed higher than this, but he's just not a focal point of this Bears offense at this moment.
>> Well, I did move him uh up a little bit. So, he's by Wandell Robinson now. >> Before or after? >> What do you think? >> After. >> I'll go after, too. So, uh, positives for DJ Moore is he was out there for 93% of the routes last week. It was just a very runheavy game script. We're not expecting that to be the case this week because you get the Ravens are expected to lose by a touchdown. Cole KT with a back injury is not practiced as well. So, they might just have to keep DJ Moore on the field. Um, and we have not seen like a big game out of DJ Moore yet. I don't think that's going to last the entire year. He was going to have some big games. He's out there for full-time reps. So, we have to kind of pick our battles with them because they're going to be balanced and they get everybody involved. But if they're down by 10, we wouldn't be surprised. And if that is the case, DJ Moore is going to be um kind of like an underrated ceiling play. So the the floor is still pretty low. But I'm not writing off a big game for DJ Moore just because we haven't seen it uh this year yet.
All right, the first Cleveland Brown we're talking about here is Jerry Judy as wide receiver 30. Um, what can Dylan Gabriel do for you, Hayden, against this uh New England Patriots passing attack where I'm sure Judy will see a whole bunch of Christian Gonzalez this week? >> Yeah. Also, DMP unlimited participant for Jared Judy with the knee injury. You get Christian Gonzalez here. At the same time, he's the wide receiver 16 in usage. So, there's a chance. Uh, and you can't run the ball on New England. We've talked about this, you know. So, if we know they're going to have to pass the ball, then it's got to go somewhere. I mean, maybe to the other team, maybe to the tarp on the sideline, maybe to Harold Fannon, then Jerry Judy. But, you know, one of these games he's going to have a have a big game, >> maybe.
Terry McCorin is up next. Uh, anything you want to add here about Scary Terry, who we haven't seen in weeks and weeks and maybe a month at this point? >> Yeah, pretty much a month. Chiefs have allowed the fewest yards on 15 plus airy yard targets. So downfield targets been the best defense in the NFL. You get Marcus Mariota who's been an effective scrambler and um they're going to throw the ball to Debo. They're going to try to run the ball a little bit here. Um it has not been like a great season for Terry McLuren and it's his first game back of injury and typically there's um a slight decrease.
Keon Coleman is next. Uh, if I could draw up some corners to face off against Keon Kleman, I would probably draw up JC Horn and Mike Jackson in terms of just big, long, tall guys to try to stay in his hip pocket and then contest the catch. >> Yeah. And they're a little bit faster than Keon Coleman is. So, he's a touchdown or bus wide receiver four. That's been the case forever. Nothing's changed here. I guess no Josh Palmer like makes his playing time a little bit more certain because there's some games where that drops like 75% but I don't know hard to trust. >> The Bills would be better if Keon Coleman took a step in his game. That's an easy thing to say. And then to me the Bills would be better if Keon Coleman wasn't their number one target getter this season too and it was someone else. But this is kind of again who they are as a roster.
>> Rasheed Shahed and Buffalo. I mean, if if they really are feel like they need to, you know, trade one of their best players in New Orleans, then I would like to see a John Brown, Steph Diggs kind of player uh in this offense again.
>> Jawan Jennings is here as wide receiver 33. Uh just hasn't worked out for him this year. >> Yeah, you're going to see Derrick Stingley on top of it. Now, he was more targeted this last game. It was kind of chaotic uh targets and ball was kind of bouncing everywhere. Um he's practicing in full. We have not said that in a very long time. So, I do think there's a chance Jawan Jennings could start getting back on track, but like I wish it wasn't Derk Stingley. If this was an easier matchup, I think I would rank him kind of aggressively again, but I have him, Kendrick Bourne right next to each other. I don't think Stingley is going to shadow either one of them. And it's not like the rest of the secondary is bad like Lacier and they got good quarterback play and a good scheme in general. Um, 49ers also might not have have might not have their starting center as well. So, not my favorite spot, especially with George KD back in there.
>> Okay, we have a bunch of other wide receiver two slash3s in the same teams we've already discussed. So, anything you want to add about Troy Franklin or Sterling Shepard or Xavier Legit here. >> Um, Troy Franklin, if you're like sorting by targets and stuff, he's really high up there. They just have been >> they I mean, then then you click the next column over, yards and touchdowns, and then it's no longer very high. So, just throw the ball to to Courtland Sutton. I think that's a more effective way. Run the ball with JK Dobbins. So, we'll see if the the Troy Franklin targets continue. I will say it is a 27 point team total at home in a very easy matchup. So, if you want to play the targets game that it continues, you could do worse.
>> And people love their splits. Xavier League with uh Andy Dalton definitely has some positive stuff in his direction and we'll see if that continues here. Okay, we haven't talked at all about the Houston Texans and who's going to fill in as their starting wide receiver because Nico Collins almost assuredly is going to miss with a concussion here. Um, they have just a bunch of guys. Uh, Xavier Hutchinson has caught a couple touchdown passes in a game so far this season. Uh, you have Braxen Berios running wind sprints out there and getting some manufactured touches in his direction. Uh, and then you have two rookies out of Iowa State in Jane Higgins and in Jaylen Null. Here you have Higgins at the top. just the second round pick and he's been a full-time player once you remove Nico Collins and Christian Kirk. So, it's been him and Xavier Hutchinson in two wide receiver sets and then you get Jaylen uh Noel in there and three wide receiver sets. He's a fun slot wide receiver and I think he's got some explosiveness to his game. Braxen Barios plays a little bit as well. Um he should just go hang out at his house. Um he's got good company at his house. So that's what I would do if I was Braxton Barry. I would not put him on the perimeter and get jammed into the sideline like I saw this last week. That's what I would not do. Also, shout out the Texans start these rookies. Like you have no juice in the offense. Like why what are we waiting for? So there's not a clear-cut winner here. I will note the 49ers defense. It's not just Fred Warner. It's not just Nick Bosa. Uh Giam Lenor, their top corner, he hasn't practiced with a quad injury. Tory Gross Mados, their number two edge rusher. He hasn't practiced. Bryce Huff, their number three edge rusher. He hasn't practiced. So, this is like the corpse of the 49ers defense. So, if there's a time for this offensive line to figure it out, this would be a good one. Um, but they don't have their top two receivers either.
>> Yeah, we'll have a lot more to say about this game uh on the quarterbacks and tight ends episode because it's an intriguing one from like a hey, let's get ready to play with Diko Ryan versus Robert Salah and Kyle Shannon part of this. Again, a lot of connective tissue around here. I might lean Xavier Hutchinson in this spot.
>> Um, >> they're gonna have to throw the ball, too. Like, San Francisco run. I know they've are down some players, but like Mel Williams is a really good run defender and not a good pass rusher at this moment. And the Texans are projected for 21 and three/4ers points. Like, this is not >> one of these bottom teams. I think they're like 12th right now in projected.
>> My lamest take ever is like good spot for Dalton Schultz. And if I had to pick one last week, man, it's >> I would pick him.
>> Check and release king. Uh Josh DS and Alec Ayamor close this thing out. Anything you want to add? >> But DS, he looks still really good on tape. The team total is really high. He's also just kind of stuck in three wide receiver sets. His best most utilized games have been the last two that he's played in. So you can kind of roll the dice on Josh DS. And then Elaimor is the opposite. He's a full-time player. I don't think he's very good. The team total is the lowest on the week. Um, but he's out there.
>> That's it. We were out here. Now we're not. But we'll be back with another show for you tomorrow. And then we have the uh Sunday starts sit around 11 11:30 a.m. Eastern. So, be back on the channel and we'll uh answer I don't know about 150 questions usually get through during that episode. So, thank you all for tuning in. Again, go and play on the dog app over underdog. Link is in the description down below. Play $5 your first time and you get a hundred bucks on top of it. Talk to you'all soon. See?