Transcription
Hello, it's Crit. I hope you are doing well.
On this very important week, I will remind you that on Wednesday, we have Jérôme Poel's speech who will explain why he is lowering rates. Certainly a decrease, but what will interest us is especially what follows. How many decreases will we have afterwards and especially why. Clearly, the market is waiting for this to create volatility, and we have a decoupling between the indices and cryptos here. We will understand. Why?
But before talking about all that, we will take a little tour of the news because we have big news. Here, we have Stéphane Miran who is rather crypto-friendly, who has been nominated to be part of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Here, we are really in the setup of Trump's pieces for what follows, that is to say, having weight in the different decisions that could be made on federal institutions. And this is something we have already seen several times. We have a very strong rapprochement of crypto and the White House.
Here, we have Michael Sellor and various institutions who are arriving at the White House to discuss the implementation of the Bitcoin Act and in particular the Bitcoin strategic reserve. How to finance it and in what way? We already have our little idea on financing based mainly on the revaluation of Gold Certificates at the Fed. I will put the video at the end of this one if you missed it, to be sure you don't miss it.
And in the big crypto news, we still have this. Perhaps it doesn't mean anything to you, but here we will certainly have a token on the Base blockchain. Base is the blockchain of Coinbase. You can guess, the crypto itself will certainly be called Coin for Coinbase. There.
But what is especially important is that we have a drastic change that was made because normally there will never be a token. In any case, that's what we were promised when they launched the blockchain, which is an L2 of Ethereum. But we know that a lot has changed since we have Trump and precisely the taxation that is simplifying, the management that is simplifying, and that not all cryptos are securities. So this greatly simplifies the process of launching your own token directly, and this is what was more or less teased during Base 2025. On the different slides, we could see the token, in any case the announcement of the token which was more or less planned for either the end of this year or 2025. Very important, it will arrive little by little.
Second thing, we will have a bridge from Solana to Base directly for cross-interoperability. And this is something that is positive and gives even more weight to the Base blockchain. We will also recall that Base has been instantiated directly, well all the applications that are on Base directly on Coinbase to facilitate liquidity in the Coinbase ecosystem. So we really have a fusion between centralized and decentralized that is happening little by little, and perhaps the token will be the token that will enable this. To be continued.
In any case, it will be big news, something that will be powerful. Will we have an airdrop or not? There are many questions that are pending for now. Pending. Yes, that's the right word when we talk about France internationally on cryptos because here we are asking ourselves the question, well, we are not the only ones, fortunately, there are still other European Union countries that are asking themselves the same question, which is not positive: is it normal or not that people who managed to get Mika regulation in a country that is, so to speak, simpler, have the right to exist and to operate directly in France? And here, I believe there are other countries like Italy and a few others that are asking themselves these questions because yes, it's true that there are quite a few who managed to pass Mika when they didn't have the possibility to do so in countries that are easier, and thus they offer their services directly to the entire European Union. And of course, France and mainly the AMF have said that this is not necessarily tolerable and that it will certainly be refused.
We will have to monitor this because it means that there are platforms currently accessible that are Mika compliant, which will not be so afterwards. In short, you can imagine the mess that will cause. It's something to watch very closely. As usual in France, we don't do like everyone else. The European Union regulation is already very complicated, so this promises.
Afterwards, you will see that they are not the only ones because we also have the Bank of England, so globally England, which is telling us that they will limit stablecoins and mainly their holdings. And yes, they are afraid that money will go here and there and no longer be in their books, which are controllable. Because yes, controllable, if you have any doubt, look at what happened in Thailand, you will tell me "Yes, it's Thailand." But it is entirely possible to do it on the euro or even the pound sterling, which is to block millions of bank accounts to prevent withdrawals. This happened in Europe, I remind you, during the various banking crises that we had, for example in Greece and Cyprus. So we see well that there are potential blockages. Stablecoins allow this to be bypassed. Globally, a limit is being put in place.
So here there is a fight, meaning that they want to limit between 10,000 and 20,000 pounds on stablecoins. And the crypto industry says absolutely not, this will block absolutely everything. I agree, it will block absolutely everything. But especially imagine if this happens at the European level because we still have the ECB which at the beginning of the month told us that stablecoins will pose a liquidity and risk problem, particularly in the European Union, and that they should be banned here. Well, in short, you see what I mean, which is that globally you no longer have the right to stablecoins. This means that every time you sell a crypto, you are forced to convert back to fiat, to pay the flat tax. So globally all setups will be very complicated if this happens. I think there is little chance, but we must understand that we are still in a totally different logic at the European Union level compared to what we can see in the USA and even, we can say, in the rest of the world.
And so we must be very careful about the regulatory part and monitor what is feasible and not feasible afterwards and adapt accordingly because there are clearly risks and precisely we must take them into consideration for structuring. And if this interests you, well tell me in the comments. I will make a video about it certainly on Sunday or at the end of the week. So I have time to really dig into what is happening. What would be the solutions for us to get around this. It's in the comments if it interests you.
On the macroeconomic level, we still have this decision. There is little that will happen, even if we have small news, it doesn't prevent us from not caring a bit. What is most important will really be Jérôme Poë's decision which will fall on his entire speech. The market is waiting, so to speak, BTC is waiting, cryptos are waiting, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are not waiting. Clearly, we can see yesterday's day, very powerful. Today's day which is opening, we are also pushing. We are making new ATHs on the NASDAQ quietly, almost every day to show you that the dynamic is still different.
And this is a dynamic that unfortunately we also find on gold, so that is to say on gold. And so here we have proof of instability that is very present, mainly. This means that we are pricing what could happen afterwards at the institutional level, and we must take it into consideration. However, this pricing is absolutely not seen in the VIX.
So, does the VIX mean anything to you? Very simple, it's the volatility index of the S&P 500. It's the contract that allows us to validate if there is too much volatility. So it's a form of hedging, it's insurance that we can take for overly powerful movements. And we see that there are absolutely no purchases here. So this implies that if there is a powerful movement, we risk having a lot of liquidations because when there is no VIX, it means we have no hedging and we are all naked in the snow.
This is a bit what is happening now with the probability of rate cuts, which is positive for the markets. But if the speech revolves around recession, it will not be positive at all. When we see gold soaring, clearly, there is a pricing that is happening.
Well, I talked to you at the beginning of the video about the notion of correlation. This notion of correlation is usually very present, and here we have a decoupling instead. Here, I present the usual graph of BTC divided by NASDAQ, which gives us a bit of the strength of one versus the other. It's going down, which means the NASDAQ is outperforming, and there's no doubt about it, the NASDAQ has been outperforming since July 14th. We can see that we have this breathing phase. We are returning to usual support zones, and we are starting to have a first breathing zone that is not sufficient. But we can see that for a few days now, it has been invalidated, where the NASDAQ is outperforming, and even the global economy, I think we will continue with outperformance, but we risk having perhaps traps mainly related to this correlation with a NASDAQ that can continue to push, an S&P 500 as well, and cryptos that might have more difficulty with liquidation closures that would hurt a bit more.
We will come back to this in a few moments. Before that, at the asset level, always very important, 259 million dollars are injected into BTC, rather positive for Ethereum, we are above, and again it's good, it's a good sign, 359 million dollars. So we do have liquidity injections in the two largest market capitalizations in terms of ETFs. So this shows that there is a desire to surf the wave of this end of the year and that there will be a good valuation that will be made through rate cuts.
However, we may have to endure a "sell the news," have in any case, and be prepared for it. That's always the most important thing. And here, we see in weekly that BTC is totally in indecision. Where the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are pumping, BTC is already consolidating. So to speak, when we really see this type of candle, I will remove all of this, we understand that there is a very, very strong indecision at the BTC level and globally for all cryptos regarding what will happen on Wednesday.
Expect a lot of volatility between today and Thursday, globally. Okay? The announcement? Yes, but even after, and even to go further, I think the end of the week will be very volatile, even Sunday evening when we prepare for the beginning of next week. In short, we will have time to see it together, but we must understand that even if we have small candles like this, we still have a lot of liquidations, 342 million longs that have been liquidated just on a small move because when we look at the type of move, it's not huge, it's not a big retracement, but we must understand that we have liquidated 400 million dollars, including 342 on longs. mainly Ethereum and altcoins. So always be very careful not to use leverage and not to increase your risks too much.
Have a strategy if you don't have one, or if it's not yet fully complete, if it's not written and displayed in front of you when you are on the charts, well, it's simple, do it. And if you don't have a method, in the comments in the description, you have a structured method to be able to do it, to define your objectives, your allocations, manage your entries and exits, it's in the comments in the description. It's super important because it will accelerate, especially with the volatility that is coming, and especially when we look a bit at what's happening on Binance. Clearly, there are liquidity problems. We had a return of liquidity in August where we had a lot of BTC injections directly into Binance. And here we see that over the last 30 days, from the end of August to the beginning of September, we see the opposite. We see BTCs leaving Binance. So liquidity is decreasing. Generally, this is rather positive. It means we will push hard.
And this is a bit what we are seeing. We had a small bearish reaction in the zone that we had previously given as positive. I thought we would go a bit lower, maybe 114,000 or a bit lower, just a little. But well, we reached 114,000 here and we are starting to have a bullish reaction. For now, it's not validated, but the reaction will be to go and get that liquidity. We have already accumulated a lot of liquidity at this top here and at this top there. So this means we have everything waiting to make a bullish breakout. Go and get here, still 117,465. We know that this is a very difficult level to pass with a strong resistance. A lot of liquidity is waiting. The next resistance will be more, the next big big resistance will be 120,000, which will certainly be the short re-entry zone. And we'll see what happens on that side.
We remain in the same dynamic, we continue to push until the Fed news, and then we will see the impact of a "sell the news," how far we will go down if we go down, depending on the news, of course. And clearly, we are preparing a real powder keg when we look at the liquidity that has been waiting since we have been in a compression phase. So we see that it is totally aberrant. Below 114,000, we have accumulated enormous liquidity, and it goes down to 104,000 or even 100,000 dollars. Above, from 117,000, well, almost 116,800, we have a huge block of liquidity up to 120,000, so that's to show you that we are ready to go and liquidate shorts, squeeze them up and down, in short, prepare yourselves, I think this end of the week will be very important and especially very powerful.
So we remain in this reserve, we are mainly waiting for the event that will happen. For now, I think we will be rather in an uptrend. So we will go up, and when we have the news, and afterwards, we will see if the news is strong enough to allow us to break an ATH or if, conversely, we will have a "sell the news" and we will see the impact of this "sell the news" on re-entry zones which could be really very important. And we will see all of that together every day at 8:30 AM.
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