Transcription
If you're not winning your fantasy leagues consistently, it might just be because you're too scared. As the best GM in sports once said, "Scared money don't make none." I know someone else said it, but he also said it. Shout out to Sam Presti.
For example, last year, people were scared to draft Christian McCaffrey because, oh, he could get injured. Yeah, he plays football. Of course he could get injured. People didn't want to draft Chris Olave because, oh, he had some concussions. Therefore, he's going to have concussions again. People didn't want to draft Javonte Williams in the ninth round even though he's on one of the best offenses in the NFL because, again, he had been injured before.
Well, today we're talking about seven players that you're too scared to draft, but you shouldn't be. All right? They're going to help you win your damn league.
Starting off with Mr. Tee Higgins. All right? This has consistently been the conversation around Tee Higgins. Have you heard this before? He can't stay healthy. You know he's going to miss time. He's not worth it because of his play style. I have him in a tier where he can be ranked as high as the wide receiver 14 for me. I would value him right around all these names on your screen. The fact that Tee's fantasy outlook has been highlighted by injuries is understandable, but it's also a little bit silly when he's helped so many people win fantasy championships. I mean, he's only missed seven games in the past two seasons. So, part of it is a little bit overblown, but if you look at his averages over the last two years, he averaged, uh, 14 points per game, the wide receiver 16 on points per game basis in 2025. In 2024, he was the wide receiver six on a points per game basis, 18 and a half points per game. If you want to look at just overall scoring in the last two years, he has been a top 17 wide receiver in back-to-back years, even when you consider the injuries that he sustained. Think about that. Despite missing Joe Burrow for nine games in 2025, he was still the wide receiver 15. Despite missing five games himself in 2024, he was still the wide receiver 17. How many receivers can miss five games and still finish as a wide receiver 17 in fantasy football?
In 2024, think about this. In 2024, when Burrow last played 17 full games in a season, Tee Higgins was on pace for 103 catches, just under 1,300 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Last year, with and without Joe Burrow, the splits are obvious. Without Joe Burrow, just 13.4 points per game. With him, over 15 points per game. So, will he be injured in 2026? It's certainly likely based off his history. Injury Shark gives him an 88% chance of injury, projected to miss about three games. But, when you have Tee Higgins in your lineup, you just know when he's healthy, he has a chance to finish as the wide receiver one on any given week. No other wide receiver in the range that he's being drafted, you can really say that about. I know the people in 2024 are certainly happy when they drafted him. When it mattered the most, he showed up week 17 with a 40-burger.
Here's what we know for sure. Okay? When Higgins is healthy, he's attached to a Bengals offense that has been top seven in passing yards in four out of the last five years, has been top two in passing touchdowns in each of the last two years, has been top five in completion percentage in four of the past five years. And in my 2026 projections, I have the Bengals with the most passing attempts projected and the most passing touchdowns projected. Yes, he'll miss a couple games, but he's a bonafide league-winner when he is healthy. And more importantly, I saved the best little nugget here for last. He has missed just one game in the fantasy football playoffs in his entire career. So, yes, there are injuries attached to Tee Higgins, but there is also league-winning upside every single week attached to the name as well. Don't be scared, all right?
This next one, uh, this next name is less about injury concern, and it's more about off-field issues. That's why people are avoiding him this year. That is Mr. Josh Jacobs Jingleheimer Schmidt. His current off-field predicament, it's giving you a very rare league-winning draft price on a running back like this in 2026. We're not here to talk about the morality, right or wrong. We're here to talk about fantasy football, okay? May 27th of this year, Josh Jacobs was booked into jail on five charges. The very next day, May 28th, he was actually released from jail. There were no charges at that time filed. Since the day he was booked in jail, I mean, he has dropped like a rock in fantasy ADP. I believe he's dropped far too far. And since June 3rd, he has been with the team practicing like he typically would. Head coach Matt LaFleur said it's all business as usual, usual. And realistically, in my opinion, it's highly unlikely that he's going to miss time in 2026, at least based off what we currently know.
My go-to on these legal cases, by the way, has always been Drew Davenport. He does great work as a lawyer in the space. Feel free to go read his latest thread on this because there's a lot of context that he talks about that I won't mention, but he did finish his report by saying he felt more confident today that Jacobs will not be suspended in 2026 than when the situation initially happened. Personally, I think back to the Alvin Kamara situation. Now, I know it's not the same exact scenario, right? Different situations, but Alvin Kamara was on camera doing his incident, and nothing happened the year it that it was on camera. It all took an entire year for that case even to develop or for the NFL to take action. So, I think we might be looking at a similar situation here. Typically, the NFL lets the legal process work itself out before they even take action.
For fantasy football purposes, I have him within one point per game in my projections of some of the following running backs like Amari on Hampton, Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Gent Jeremiah Love, right? Yet, some of these guys are first-round picks, early seconds, late seconds. And meanwhile, Josh Jacobs is completely free in round number three, sometimes going mid to even late round number three. What could you possibly be hoping for that rookie Jeremiah Love could get, could do for you in fantasy football? I mean, that's exactly what Jacobs, you know he will do for you, right? If he's, if he's there. I mean, I love Saquon Barkley, for example. I will draft a ton of Saquon Barkley this year. I think he's due for a big bounce back, but he was worse as a fantasy asset than Jacobs was last year. And he's being drafted this year at the early second round while Jacobs is going in the late third.
Look, Jacobs has been nothing but awesome since joining Green Bay. He hasn't finished below top 10 on a points per game basis at the running back position since he joined Green Bay, and there's virtually no competition in this backfield. Emanuel Wilson was his main competition last year, and he's in Seattle now. It's Chris Brooks, Marshall Lloyd, the guy who's never been able to stay, stay healthy. Some of the starts you can get this year in fantasy drafts with Josh Jacobs, legitimately, they are cheat codes. Like, for example, if you start at the 1.01, you get Bijan, you come back and you get up a George Pickens, or you double up at running back or Trey McBride, Jacobs as your third pick is ridiculous. If you're at the back end of the board, someone like, for example, right now based off ADP, you could start Amon-Ra, Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs. Like, some of these starts are truly ridiculous. Like I said, in my projections, I got him at 16, around 16 points per game, right there with Derrick Henry.
By the way, my projections are constantly being updated in our draft guide. Get my draft guide. It's a virtual draft guide that you can interact with by becoming a season pass member for just $34 when you use my promo code LAN. We've got so many different features on there, the projections, the vacated targets tool. We've got some highlighted players for you to read about. We've got my cheat sheet, which is for any league, any settings. One of my favorite features about the cheat sheet is when you're on the clock, it'll not only show you your best available, but it will also tell you if you wait at a specific position who might be available based off your league's ADP, your platform's ADP, who might be available next. Plenty of awesome features, but again, just $34. It's not just draft prep, it's for the entire NFL season. You get my rankings, you get some spots into some land leagues that I host. Check that out in the pin comment, best deal in the industry.
Okay. This next one is honestly, in my opinion, my best take today. I'd love to know what you guys think. Hit me up down below. By the way, trying to reach 100k subscribers before week one of the season. You can help me get there. Let's talk about Lamar Jackson. Okay, you might be thinking, "Zack, Lamar Jackson, people are scared to draft a quarterback two. What are you on about?" Well, yes, he's a quarterback two across the board on all the sites, but where he is going in fantasy drafts is a little bit ridiculous. Josh Allen, currently a third-round pick, sometimes a second-round pick. There are at least two rounds of distance in ADP between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who's the quarterback two this year. I'll take it a step even further, okay? I'll make the stakes even higher. This is the cheapest the quarterback two has been in fantasy football in ADP in the last 11 years. [snorts] No, that is not a joke. That's so for real. I mean, let's look at some of this from 2015 to 2025. Normally, the quarterback two in ADP is hovering around mid-20s, sometimes in the teens, sometimes in the 30s. In 2026, Lamar Jackson has an ADP of 56th. And by the way, that's the largest sample I have of ADP, so who knows if that number is even higher. I just only had the last 11 years of data of ADP. I just took him in a land community draft that I do every week on our streams at the 501. Really loved that pick there.
So, why in the world are people scared to draft him in 2026? I have a good guess, and I'll tell you why it's probably silly. Last year, Lamar Jackson had his worst fantasy season ever, you know, 16, uh, 0.5 points per game, the quarterback 16 on a points per game basis. I believe the reason he had this fall is very easily explained. He injured his hamstring in week four, and he didn't return until week number nine. Okay, we know that that happened. In his absence, this team was trying to win games. They had Tyler Huntley, Cooper Rush, who combined for two touchdowns and four interceptions in, you know, nine games that they missed Lamar Jackson. The team clearly had an opportunity to win their division, but the quarterback play was so awful, they just needed Lamar Jackson to come back a little bit earlier from his hamstring than probably he should have. Hamstrings really take a long time to heal, especially serious ones like what he sustained. I mean, the team was only two and a half games back in their division in week nine when Lamar returned. In week 11, they were only just a single game down in their division. I say all that because I hope that it helps people understand why Lamar Jackson was prematurely rushed back from from his injury, but more importantly, how rushing him back clearly had an impact on his performance, not only in the NFL, but also in fantasy football.
So, for example, when you look at Lamar Jackson in the pocket before his hamstring injury, he was easily quarterback one in passer rating, quarterback one in completion percentage over expectation, quarterback two in accuracy throw rate. After that hamstring injury, all those numbers completely plummet. When Lamar returned, it was fairly obvious he just wasn't the same player. He wasn't 100%, he was still dealing with the injury. Even from a fantasy perspective, he wasn't the same. From weeks one to three, he was an absolute superstar last year. I mean, we're talking number one quarterback in points per game with over 27. He had the most passing touchdowns in that span. Then he gets injured, comes back weeks nine to 18, completely falls off, guys. Like 13 and a half points per game. But, look at the bottom of this comparison where you see the rushing work. All of his rushing work basically disappears. His X factor, right? What makes him the one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks we've seen in the last two decades. I wonder, I wonder why all of his rushing work completely falls off the face of the of the earth. Why did all the efficiency fall off the face of the earth as a rusher? Couldn't possibly be the hamstring injury, right? I mean, Lamar Jackson, think about this, is one of like what? Three quarterbacks, maybe, who could genuinely finish as the quarterback one in 2026 and you can get him in the fifth round. We are literally one season removed from him averaging over 25 points per game and playing the entire season, uh, where he was, uh, the quarterback one overall. Look, I just think Lamar Jackson should be given a little bit more respect and there are plenty of people out there who are going to win their leagues simply because they weren't playing scared and they took Lamar freaking Jackson.
Okay. This next guy, I kind of think it's insane that he's getting the old injury-prone tag, but he is. That is Terry McLaurin. Terry has been the definition of consistency for the Commanders and their organization really until last season, right? From 2021 to 2024, four seasons in a row where he didn't miss a single game for this team. Then in 2025, as we know, the injury bug hits, missed four games with a quad injury, missed three more when he re-aggravated the quad and had some, uh, growing issues as well. And the injury bug just, it hit everybody in Washington, if we're being honest, including his quarterback Jayden Daniels, who missed, uh, 10 games on his own. Collectively, think about this for a second. Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels played just three games together for the entirety of 2025. What do you think Terry's season is going to look like in 2026? Do you trust the year that he and Jayden Daniels had together in where he had almost 16 points per game, over 1,000 yards, double-digit touchdowns, or do you trust the three-game sample size that you got in 2026? The only thing in my opinion that needs to happen for Terry to return value at his current ADP is that he and Jayden Daniels stay healthy. That's it. That's the only thing that has to happen.
In 2024, when they were both available, the team was second in scoring rate, scoring on 50% of their drives. Terry is the clear alpha on an offense that's just one year removed from being elite. Who is challenging this guy for target share? I mean, every day will Brandon Aiyuk go to Washington? We don't know. The guy doesn't even have an agent. All right, does he even know how to negotiate his way out of his situation? We don't know. But who's, I mean, Luke McCaffrey? Treylon Burks? What are we talking about? This team just lost its number one and number two target earners in 2025 in Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz. They currently rank third in total vacated targets in the NFL. They're going to need someone to step up, and it's probably going to be Terry McLaurin. Again, don't be scared. Draft him in the fifth, sixth round and have him be one of the best flexes in fantasy football for you, right?
Okay, this next running back is very old, so I understand if you cringe, but give me a second. Aaron Jones. It doesn't seem like anybody is giving Aaron Jones a pass for this Vikings offense last year, but they're giving a lot of other people a pass. Like, for example, nobody's worried about Justin Jefferson's price this year. He's a first-round pick, rightfully so. I'm not, I'm not saying I'm anti-Jefferson at all, but Aaron Jones, who is much older, I understand, is being completely left for dead in drafts. I mean, he's going two rounds after backups like Blake Corum, Khalil Mondon, Rico Dowdle, RJ Harvey. He's going a full round after Kenneth Gainwell, Jonathan Brooks, JK Dobbins. Let's get on the same page, okay? Cuz if you're anti-Aaron Jones, I get it. Like, he is old. He had a terrible year in 2025. That's all true. Last year, just 9.9 points per game, the RB 32 on a points per game basis. We're all on the same page, okay? But, if you are really honest with yourself, then you would know that there is more context at hand here. For example, the Vikings offense as a whole was the worst it's been in a long, long time last year. When Kevin O'Connell took over, that was 2022, they were top 10 in first downs every year except 2025. They were top 10 in points scored every year except for 2023 and 2025. Last year, this offense was so bad, okay, that the Falcons and the Dolphins scored more points overall. All right? The Cardinals and the Dolphins had a higher overall scoring rate. The Vikings had less total yards than the Carolina Panthers. And when you look at rushing yards per game, they had less than the Texans and the Bucks. That's right, the Texans who have been flamed for the rushing attack consistently in every video this offseason, the Bucks who last year lost their RB1 for pretty much the entire year. Yet, nobody's giving Aaron Jones a break. Nobody's even considering sniffing around his ADP. He was on track for 58 targets last year. He's going to be on a much better offense this year. He's going to be the starter in my opinion. Will he get injured? Maybe, that's a possibility. He is old, but when he is healthy, will he win you weeks? There's a very good possibility that this is the best RB4 out there in fantasy football right now.
Okay. This next player, a lot of people are going to cringe at as well, but Garrett Wilson. All right? Last year was the first year Garrett Wilson dealt with any serious injury. He had an MCL sprain, uh, and that really hampered his entire year. He didn't really come back from it. But, the bigger complaint people will have with Garrett Wilson is that he's just not really ever paying off at his ADP. He didn't have a single season over 15 points per game so far. There was a year where Aaron Rodgers came and he was a first-round pick, and people are just really upset about what he has been so far. To be fair, if you look at the offenses that he's been a part of since he joined the league, the best year he got was like Aaron Rodgers in 2024, but I mean, they have been bottom of the barrel in points scored. Specifically, the passing attack has been woeful. Last year, for example, 29th in completion percentage, dead last in passing yards, second in that, dead last in passing touchdowns.
Look, the easiest answer, in my opinion, to who could be the next Chris Olave is Garrett Wilson, okay? First-round talent out of Ohio State. Has demanded a high target share and has had terrible quarterback play in his career. And please, do not be disingenuous in the comment section, okay? Don't pretend like you were excited about Spencer Rattler and the Saints offense. It was absolutely a reason why people were out on Chris Olave in drafts last year. And I say that because that might be how you feel this year about Garrett Wilson, but the Jets legitimately should have one of their most complete offenses they have had personally in Garrett Wilson's time there. Geno Smith is an upgrade from Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Brady Brady Cook, okay? It is an upgrade. I know he was bad last year, but it is an upgrade. The offensive line is good, and they made serious additions during the NFL draft to improve the offense overall, like Kony Ealy. Ealy is going to improve that offense in so many ways. Amari Cooper is going to take pressure off of Garrett Wilson. They added Adonai Mitchell in a trade before basically right when Garrett Wilson went down last year. Look, there is a 1,110, 1,100 yd, 10 touchdown year out there for Garrett Wilson somewhere, and even if he doesn't hit that type of upside, he has such a safe floor. Don't play scared.
Okay. This last one, again, let me know if there's a player that stands out to you this year that people are scared about. Do me a favor, hit that like button, hype the video as the kids say on mobile, and subscribe if you haven't done so yet. We're trying to get to 100K before week one. Let's talk about Mark Andrews. In my opinion, Mark Andrews, while people are scared to draft him, I honestly wholeheartedly believe he is one of the safest picks in fantasy football this year. Look at where the guy is being drafted. He's an 11th round pick, sometimes a 12th round pick. He's going four rounds after LaPorta and Pitts, two rounds after Travis Kelce, and people are treating him as if he's barely going to be involved. Yet, this team signed him to a contract extension for three years in December of 2025. Okay, then in free agency, they let his biggest target competition, and Isaiah Likely, walk. Their tight end three also walked to the Chargers. Our tool on the draft guide, one of many, many tools out there that we have for you when you use the code Land to become a season pass member, vacated targets tool shows that the Baltimore Ravens are fifth in vacated targets amongst the tight end position. I would genuinely be shocked if Mark Andrews is not a top 12 tight end in fantasy football this year. If you're going to punt the tight end position and he's available at the back end of your drafts, he is just such a safe pick.
So, guys, appreciate you watching the video. Do me a favor, hit the like button, show some love. If you found any value, if I earned your sub, go ahead and sub, sub, sub to the channel. We'll see you in the next one. I've got a lot of content on the channel that you probably like. Go check it out. We'll see you next time. Nothing below.
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