Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about altcoins and how they have now hit .29. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, we actually had a new development over in the altcoin market. Something that we've been talking about for a very long period of time. Our general assessment of the altcoin market for a very long time has just simply been that all of these moves will just resolve to be lower highs. And every single time we get that, a lot of people get excited. They call for alt season and whatnot, and it ends up just being a a lower high. Actually, just about, I think one day, it might even be that that that same day, we released a video on this rotation back to Bitcoin, and then a few hours later, we saw the major capitulation. But in the video, you can see we still have it up. We were talking about how you have all these narratives to support various types of alt seasons, but that they always just continue to be lower highs.
Now, one thing that we have been steadfast on on this channel for basically since 2021 is that the altcoin market cap would collectively drop to 25% of Bitcoin's market cap, or 0.25. Now, in this case, now that we're getting into the endgame of it, we have to look at things in a bit more detail. Okay.
Now, we're going to go through a couple of things here. The first thing is that the main chart that I show you guys, and I've shown you guys for the last few years, is Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin. Occasionally, we will go into this and add in other stablecoins. The reason why I don't normally include other stablecoins is because when you're when we when we are looking at all Bitcoin pairs throughout this entire phase, it didn't really matter, right? It was negligible. It doesn't make a whole a huge difference. The other reason was when you actually include other stablecoins, like say USDC, one of the things you'll notice is that there's just not as much history on it. But it is worth talking about, especially this late in the cycle, because when you look at Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin, one of the things you'll notice is that they just went to 29, or 29% of Bitcoin's market cap. You'll notice that the optimistic way to look at altcoins is to simply say they top out around par with Bitcoin, or when the altcoin market cap is approximately equivalent to Bitcoin's market cap, and they bottom out at approximately 0.25, or when the altcoin market cap is essentially equivalent to 1/4 of Bitcoin's market cap.
This chart alone was able to keep me on the right side of Bitcoin dominance for this entire cycle. So, every time there was an influencer screaming alt season throughout this entire this entire phase, all you ever had to do was look at this chart. You didn't have to know about quantitative tightening. You didn't have to know about interest rates. You didn't have to know about anything. All you had to know was that the chart tells you everything you need to know. And that's that the best-case scenario is that altcoins top out at par with Bitcoin, and they bottom out at 25% of Bitcoin's market cap. That's the optimistic view. The pessimistic view for the altcoin market cap is that you're actually in a series of lower highs and lower lows. Right? That's the the the more pessimistic view. And it was because of this view that I I generally was, you know, able to to maintain my view on the altcoin market to say, look, 0.25 was always a conservative target because there does exist a future potentially in, you know, the distant future where you find altcoins below where they were back over in 2020. The reality is that in 2017, all Bitcoin pairs were at 1.36 and as low as 0.25, and then the next cycle, they went as high as around .99 and then they went as low as .8. So you could argue that you have a series of lower highs and lower lows. So by saying 0.25, that was a conservative target.
Now, I will say this, and I have to say it because if I don't say it, everyone else will say it in the comments. So, if you want to say it, go ahead and say it. That'll help. That'll help the algorithm for me. But now, I'm going to go ahead and address the very thing you're probably typing right now. And that is, if you include USDC into this into this metric here, right, into this um ticker, and you say Total 3 minus USDT minus USDC divided by Bitcoin, then what you'll notice is that all Bitcoin pairs just hit 0.25, right? You would notice that you say, "All right, well, they hit 0.25." So to some degree, I have to be a little less deterministic about this view than I previously have been because all Bitcoin pairs when you include USDC, they actually hit 0.25 already. Be that as it may, be that as it may, it doesn't necessarily preclude Total 3 minus USDT divided by Bitcoin from also potentially going to 0.25. There is a possibility where that is how this plays out.
And I I want to show you an example of of what actually happened in 2017. There's a lot of people that said absolutely no one could have predicted this annihilation of all Bitcoin pairs. But remember, there's always a narrative, right? And obviously the Trump tariffs are being blamed. But at the end of the day, we've been talking about this for for months, right? Back in the summer, we said that all Bitcoin pairs would likely rally, uh, and then in early Q4, we would like to see we would likely start to see this capitulation to the range lows of 0.25. What's really interesting is that the capitulation that we just saw started in October of 2025. October of 2025. There's a lot of similarities between this cycle and the 2017 cycle. Obviously, we have the same president, but just structurally, the cycles look very similar. And what you'll notice is that we also had a major capitulation by all Bitcoin pairs in October of 2017 as well. So we've been talking about this for months. It's not like we knew what the narrative was going to be blamed on, or you know, what narrative would be the the reason, the quote unquote reason for why the capitulation would play out. But the argument is that's irrelevant. Right? You don't need to know the reason to prepare for it. And this is why we called for the final rotation into Bitcoin is because of this very capitulation, right? The very capitulation that we saw.
Now, the question is, is it over? Right? That's the question. Well, there's a few ways we can approach this. The first way is to say, let's go back to October of 2017 and see how it played out. You can see that all Bitcoin pairs started to bleed. And the week of October 9th, and right now we're in the week of what, October 12th, all Bitcoin pairs were actually at the same level that we're at right now. Right? You can see the line going across the page here. And you can see in the same exact week that we're in right now in 20 in 2025, all Bitcoin pairs were at that exact same level in October of 2017. But you'll see they actually continued to capitulate down. And the first capitulation that we had in mid-October had a had a drop all the way down to .28. Now remember, we just went to .29. And after that drop, all Bitcoin pairs rallied back up to about .34. There was also another low right here of .32 and a wick up to, or sorry, and it and it and you can see it, that open of that month was all the way up at .41. But the general thing that I'm I'm I'm trying to sort of convey here is that we saw all Bitcoin pairs draw through all of October, and they found a bottom in early November. There was then another drop by them in early December, but it ended up being a higher low. Okay, ended up being a higher low.
Now, the thing that is important to remember in terms of how alt Bitcoin pairs will behave, as I've said before, the only way you can achieve a durable move by alt Bitcoin pairs is for Ethereum to durably hold above $5,000. Because we speculated that Ethereum would get rejected on its first attempt to break through all-time highs. If you guys remember, we talked about that a lot. We said to fade alt season over here because Ethereum would get rejected. We said to fade alt season, and a lot of people were calling for alt season right now. Unfortunately, a lot of people got liquidated because they were leverage trading and and they were doing so with illiquid altcoins, is a nice way to say it. But the problem is that for alt Bitcoin pairs to get that more durable rally, we need to see Ethereum durably holding all-time highs. The reason why that still presents an uphill battle right now for alt Bitcoin pairs is because in order for Ethereum to go durably above 5K, Bitcoin needs to go to a new all-time high. There does exist a scenario where Bitcoin could get a bounce into a lower high and Ethereum go to a higher high if the uptrend by Ethereum's Bitcoin valuation remains intact, which I think it will. I think it will form a higher low somewhere over here. The low could be in. It's possible it goes just a little bit lower.
Now, the reason why alt Bitcoin pairs will likely struggle again in coming weeks is because in order for Ethereum to go durably to a new all-time high, to durably go to 5K and hold it, we need to see Bitcoin there. But the reason that presents a problem for alt Bitcoin pairs is because every single rally this cycle where Bitcoin rallies to a new cycle high, it is accompanied by a rally by Bitcoin dominance. Right? So, if you go look here at at the rally that Bitcoin USD had to this new cycle high, you can see that when it did that, Bitcoin dominance went up into that rally. And the correction by dominance did not occur until after Bitcoin put in a new cycle high. That was in 2023. In 2024, you'll see something similar, how Bitcoin dominance was rallying into Bitcoin USD putting in a new cycle high, and then after it put in a new cycle high, then Bitcoin dominance collapsed. And then the same thing of course happened, um, you know, later on. We saw Bitcoin rallying on up, and after it put in, you know, after it sort of broke through the highs, that again is when you got the big correction by Bitcoin dominance.
So, the reason why it makes sense, and I know it's hard, I know it's hard. No one ever told you this was going to be easy, right? You didn't join crypto because it was it was an easy market to to trade in. The reason why this can be difficult is because in order for Ethereum to go durably to 5K and not just be a wick above it, in order for that to happen, Bitcoin needs to go to all-time highs. But the process of Bitcoin going to new all-time highs will likely lead to the further devaluation of all Bitcoin pairs. And if Bitcoin does not go to new all-time highs, then you might have a wick for Ethereum to a new all-time high, but it would not be sustained. And if it's not sustained, then you don't get an alt season.
So, the reason why it still makes sense to assume that alt Bitcoin pairs will fade again is because the only two outcomes for Bitcoin of it going up or down in the short term would likely yield alts dropping against Bitcoin because we saw Bitcoin drop 10%. % and altcoins got annihilated, right? They got absolutely annihilated. If Bitcoin goes up to new highs, alts get annihilated on their Bitcoin pairs as liquidity flows back to the king.
So, a lot of people are probably getting hung up on the spike that we had by Bitcoin dominance that has now gotten completely sold off, right? The spike up. But one of the things to remember is this has happened a lot throughout Bitcoin throughout Bitcoin the sort of the Bitcoin dominance history where you'll occasionally get these spikes. We even got one back in February 2025, right? You you had a spike, and what usually happens after a major spike is you will get some type of mean reversion back down. But then eventually dominance will start to slowly go back up again, right? And if you go throughout all of history, you'll see a lot of similarities, right, with with Bitcoin dominance and how it'll play out. And maybe a better way to look at it is to look at all Bitcoin pairs. And what you'll see is there's no shortage of times where all Bitcoin pairs get these massive wicks down, right? These massive wicks, and then they close back up, and then it looks good for a few weeks, right? It looks good, but then they just end up falling to new lows again. Right now. Right now though, we still have about two and a half weeks left in October. I'm going to stand by what I said. We had a capitulation. We had a capitulation by all Bitcoin pairs. If you include USDC, they've already hit 0.25. They have. With that said, I think Bitcoin dominance is going to get another push up, okay? At least in the short term. I think it makes sense to stay bullish on Bitcoin dominance for at least the next two and a half weeks. And again, the reason why I say that is because Bitcoin will likely make a a decision relatively soon on whether the top is in or whether we get one more rally. If the top is in, none of this stuff matters, right? Like we're we're just basically grasping at straws, and it doesn't even matter. If the top is not in, the very journey of Bitcoin to new all-time highs would lead to the devaluation of all Bitcoin pairs.
One thing I told you guys throughout the entire summer, and I stand by it today, is that what I said you would likely see happen is you would likely see a lower low for all Bitcoin pairs in early Q4. A lower low compared to the summer low. And you'll notice that the summer low for all Bitcoin pairs was .3. And again, we just went to .29. So, we did get a lower low. Even though no one wanted to believe it was possible, we got a lower low. What's really interesting, and this is why it makes this Bitcoin dominance prediction stuff so intricate and nuanced, is that while all Bitcoin pairs went to a lower low, Bitcoin dominance did not go to a new cycle high. Why is that? Well, I'm glad you asked. Back then, we said over and over and over again that despite the fact that alts would go to a lower low on their Bitcoin pairs collectively, we said that Ethereum's Bitcoin valuation would put in a higher low. And because ETH is now at 0.036 instead of 0.017, 0.017, Bitcoin dominance is not at a new cycle high because Ethereum is the number two cryptocurrency by market cap. So its Bitcoin valuation tells you a lot about where Bitcoin dominance is actually going to be. It's possible that the low for ETH against Bitcoin is already in here. I'm not against that idea. I I think it is a possibility. It did tag the 20-week SMA just like ETHUSD. With that said, I'm not married to that idea because when you look back at at history and you look at like ETH Bitcoin in in post-election years, near the end of them, it's not unheard of for ETH Bitcoin to continue to drop, uh, you know, not just in October, but potentially to drop even through December, early November, even maybe going into early December. So, I don't know for sure if the bottom for ETH against Bitcoin is in. If Bitcoin were to start a big move to the upside, I think there's a good chance ETH could bleed against Bitcoin, at least in the short term. If ETH continues to bleed against Bitcoin like it did in 2017, and then we see all Bitcoin pairs put in another lower low, then you might see Bitcoin dominance back up near the highs. It's not impossible, even though it sounds crazy. Remember, a lot of times when you get these wicks by dominance to the upside like there, you'll see a mean reversion trade where the people that got liquidated on their altcoins, you know, it just runs back the other way for a little while. But it doesn't mean Bitcoin dominance won't come back again.
In 2017, we saw very similar spikes in dominance. You see all these spikes. You had a spike in October, in mid-October, and then a brief pullback. Another spike by dominance in late October, early November, and then another spike in dominance in early December. So dominance continued to slowly go up, and alt Bitcoin pairs continued to slowly go down either into early November and or early December. The reason why Bitcoin dominance was putting in higher highs in early December, despite the fact that all Bitcoin pairs found their low in early November, was because ETH Bitcoin was still dropping like a rock into early December, right? It was a macro higher low, but because it kept dropping, it allowed Bitcoin dominance to surge one more time.
So, it's easy to fall for the same trap that every influencer has been telling you, not every, but most of them, most influencers have been telling you all cycle long. And what is that? Everything, every single time we have seen alt Bitcoin pairs collapse, a lot of people will then scream alt season. Okay? But remember, the only way you're going to get a durable alt season from here is if Bitcoin goes to new all-time highs. If Bitcoin does not go to new all-time highs, you just pack it up, right? How, you know, how do you get a durable alt season if Bitcoin just fades and and drops 70% from here? You probably don't. So, the only way you're going to get it is if Bitcoin goes back up to the highs. But remember, the process of Bitcoin going up to the highs in and of itself would lead to the devaluation of all Bitcoin pairs as we've seen for the entire cycle.
So, a lot of people once again, despite the fact they've been bearish on dominance the entire cycle, the entire cycle, and every sing every single time it spikes, they use it as an opportunity to say that's the top. And you get a few days where they think they're right, but inevitably the hype fades and Bitcoin dominance continues to go up. I think this spike by dominance is showing you where the market actually wants to go. People are having a hard time accepting it, though. They're having a hard time accepting it. A lot of faith was lost in the altcoin market. That doesn't mean it will never come back. It just means in the short term, faith was lost. And I think there will be people that will say enough is enough and they're going to want to go just into Bitcoin because they saw Bitcoin drop 10%. And some of these altcoins dropped 80 to 90%. At what point as an investor do you say enough is enough and to stop dreaming about alt season just as we get closer to the end of the cycle when it might actually end up happening at some point?
So what I will say is this, when you include USDC, it is true that all Bitcoin pairs hit 0.25. The counterargument to that is that when you exclude USDC, right, when you exclude it, 0.25 was always the conservative target in the first place, right? Because technically last cycle, all Bitcoin pairs went down to .8. So what I'm saying is that in 2017, all Bitcoin pairs basically fell for all of October. I'm not saying they they don't get these mean reversion trades, but how do you know this isn't just a short-term dead cat bounce by all Bitcoin pairs that leads to a lower high and then they just simply roll over and start going back down? Because again, the only way for them to durably bounce against Bitcoin is for Bitcoin to go to all-time highs. But again, the process of Bitcoin going to all-time highs would directly lead to the devaluation of all Bitcoin pairs because when you have crashes like the one we had, Bitcoin usually recovers first. From one market cycle to another, Bitcoin usually hits all-time highs first out of most other cryptocurrencies. From one intra-cycle crash to another peak, Bitcoin normally gets to all-time highs first out of most cryptocurrencies. There's always some that beat Bitcoin to the punch, but the ones that are beating Bitcoin today to new all-time highs are likely not the ones that were beating it to all-time highs back in 2023, and those are different than the ones that were beating it in 2024. So, every year of the cycle, there's a different like a different faction of altcoins that are doing better than Bitcoin. But when you look at the cycle in its entirety, you can see that Bitcoin was always the guiding light.
So to summarize and to to to put a bow on this on this video, our assessment of a rotation back into Bitcoin has been absolutely correct. We just saw Bitcoin dominance spike to over 63%. Over 63%. I told you guys when you see 60, it's going to move quickly, and it did. You're looking at a mean reversion right now where people are once again thinking it's alt season. But what I think, what I think, I think alt Bitcoin pairs are going to start to roll over soon, and I think Bitcoin dominance is going to start spiking back up again. And the crazy thing is, every single person on X or on Twitter who who's been bearish on dominance all cycle will once again think that it can't go higher. And I'm saying right now, I think it's about to start going higher once again. The final rotation into Bitcoin is still an ongoing thing. You only have two outcomes for Bitcoin. The top's either in or it's not. If it's in, alts get wrecked against Bitcoin and bare markets. And if it's not in, the process of Bitcoin going to all-time highs would devalue all Bitcoin pairs.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.