Transcription
All right, in this uh short video, I'm going to show you why the people that are saying that um we're about to repeat 2011 all over again and um and uh metals and commodities are going to have a um you know, multi-year bear market. Uh >> [clears throat] >> I'm going to show you why they're wrong.
Um, there's there's more to analyzing or trying to spot a major um secular top than just chart patterns. Uh, there's there's money flows. And so, um, let me ex- let me explain why this is not 2011 all over again.
So, um, in 2000, stocks had a secular bear market top. And that meant that um, they basically they transitioned into a, I guess what was about a 9-year secular bear market where they didn't really go anywhere and we had two major uh recessions and two major cyclical bear markets within this secular long-term bear market. So, capital wasn't flowing into stocks during this period. But you can see on these uh, this comparison chart, you can see where the capital was flowing. It was flowing into commodities.
So, uh, the commodity bear market ended and you could quibble about whether it was in '99 or in uh, 2001. It kind of made a double bottom. Um, but basically, uh, [clears throat] you know, smart money was already starting to exit the stock market here in uh, in '99 and some of that liquidity was starting to flow into the commodity markets. And then um, as we had that that crash, this also took down the commodity markets. But then, what happened was stocks uh, even though they had a cyclical bull market, they did not have a secular bull market and the S&P was only able to come up and make a double top top.
But in the meantime, uh, all of that liquidity uh, a lot of it was flowing, uh, you know, all of the QE that the Fed was doing. Uh, it wasn't really >> [clears throat] >> it didn't really uh, create a long-term bull market in stocks, but did create a long-term uh, bull market in commodities. So, you can see commodities uh, had a major move higher over the next um, what was it, eight or nine years here? Uh, while stocks were in a cyclical or a secul- secular bear market.
All right, then you can see what happened. Uh, we had the you know, the major crash in '09 and and ultimately that took down everything, uh, margin calls, um, panic selling and everything. Um, that was the final secular bear market bottom in the stock market. This is the point at which stocks just got too cheap. And uh, it was a top in the um, secular bull market for commodities. And you can see we had the big crash. This was um, mostly reflected by the the crash in oil. Oil is the main component of the CRB here. But commodities in general um, crashed and then and then we just you can see what happened. We just had a very long multi-year from um, about 11-year bear market until we got that final bottom in 2020 when basically when everything crashed. Um, oil went negative. Um, that was the bell ringing that the bear market in commodities was over.
And so, that you know, the Fed and central banks all over the world went on a printing spree, everything went up uh, including stocks, uh, but but commodities began a new secular bull market. And this was the first leg up from 2020 till um uh, I guess this was kind of right as the Ukraine war started. Um, we kind of get that final parabolic uh, move and this was such a huge move in a short period of time that what transpired at that point was a long consolidation. And during that consolidation, the stock market um, continued to go up with some uh, periods of volatility here. Um, this was the if I remember right, this was when the Fed was raising rates and this was the um, the tariffs. Um, but still [clears throat] the stock market was um, moving higher.
Um, and now, as you can see, the uh, the consolidation phase, the multi-year consolidation phase is over and commodities have started the the next leg up in this secular bull market. Now, I don't know whether that means that the um, the secular bull market in stocks is over. It seems a little bit short to me. I've kind of been on record that I think maybe it might you know, might need to go a little bit um, longer and a little bit further. But but maybe not. The war cycle is intensifying and the inflation cycle is starting to intensify. So, it is possible that that we are looking at a major top um, trying to form here in the stock market. It'll probably be a top that takes a year or more to uh, to form kind of a you know, one of these rounded tops like here and here. Um, So, um, that's a possibility.
But um, we are just starting the second leg up of a long-term bull market in commodities. So, uh, either way, even if there is another leg up, I think um, liquidity is already starting to come out of the stock market and and starting to move into commodities and that's what's driving this second phase here. Uh, very similar to how um, liquidity started to come out of um, stocks here a little about a year or so early and we got our you know, our first leg up in the commodity bull market which was then retested when everything crashed. And uh, and then in the commodity market took off in earnest as the secular bear market in stocks progressed over the next 9 years. Um, so, I I think that's probably what's happening.
So, if people are trying to look at a chart and tell you that um, that this is 2011 all over again and that um, the you know, precious metals and commodities are are going to crash and be in a bear market for multiple years, they're you're just wrong. That that that is not what is happening. If anything, it's the exact opposite. This is a very long secular bull market that's very mature and there's a possibility that it may be trying to form a rounded top. And if if you know, if you're not not getting anywhere, if this market stagnates, then more and more liquidity is going to start flowing into commodities where where things are moving. And uh, and you'll get another um, secular bull market like what we had back here. So, um, this is why people are just wrong when they when they're just looking at a chart and saying, "Oh, this is 2011 all over again." It it is not. Uh, we are not in that uh, scenario where the stock market is just starting a secular bull market and all the liquidity is going to be flowing into the stock market. That's that's not the case. If anything, the liquidity, you know, it's a very long bull market and if anything, liquidity is going to be starting to leak out of the stock market and uh, go into this uh, second phase uh, of the commodity bull market. You know, here was the first phase, consolidation, second phase getting underway.
And there's a pretty good chance that this second phase Now, there there may be a uh, a a corrective move here. Um, again, this is mostly oil. Um, but there may be a corrective move here as as oil's going to need to take a breather here at some point. But um, seems like you know, um, decent possibility that this leg up could retest these uh, these all-time highs before we get another either uh, significant pullback or another period of consolidation. But um, we I think we've got more years to go, probably 2030 to 2032 before this bull market in the in commodities is uh, over. So, um, you know, you don't you don't want to listen to these people. They're wrong. Uh, we're not in the same situation as we were in um, in 2011. The commodity bull market is not coming to an end. On the contrary, it's just starting uh, the second leg up and um, and I'm pretty sure that um, the metals have completed their intermediate correction. Everybody's bearish. That's the fuel for the next leg up. And I've gone over in the weekly report the the potential that we could get a second stage parabolic phase. It's kind of depend on how quickly we recover the all-time highs as to whether or not I think we're either back in the wall of worry where it's like three steps up, one or two steps back or we've got another um, parabolic phase and this was the midpoint correction between the first parabolic phase and the second parabolic phase. Um, so, again, I've covered that in detail in the in the weekend report if you want to see that analysis. But we are this is not 2011 all over again. Far from it. We are just starting the second leg up in a commodity bull market.