Transcription
Inflation, you know, it certainly creates a general burden. Those who cannot survive are those whose salaries or incomes are fixed. Suppose I am an employee, and my job is at a company that sells products with high value, necessary items, desirable items that anyone with money will have to buy. In that case, they can adjust the prices of goods or services upwards according to inflation, and they can also adjust the wages or salaries of their employees upwards. In conclusion, both the company and I can survive. What happens is tightening the belt, zipping up the mouth, eating less. This is one way of managing. But the problem, as mentioned, when it comes from cost-push, tightening the belt, people feel unwell. When various countries face such problems, they let inflation happen. They print money to manage so that long-term interest rates do not rise too high. That might be a way to solve the problem, allowing ordinary people, the public, to survive better than suddenly tightening their belts, zipping up their mouths, and eating and using less. This is severe. We must try to balance the economic management process to increase income distribution, collect taxes from the rich to help the poor more. Ultimately, it's about borrowing, then distributing, and then it disappears. And the capacity to borrow keeps disappearing, keeps disappearing, to generate income in the country, both the private and public sectors. In the future, we need to think carefully. The nature of economic management in the second half of this year and the next 2-3 years will be very tiring and difficult. Our goal is to bring this channel to 1 million subscribers. We are currently in a period of disrupting the current world order. Therefore, at the international level, it is very dangerous. And if you don't want to miss good content, please subscribe. For the past 2 years, our financial system has remained strong, and we will not be in a bad situation. For those who want to upgrade their knowledge in depth, we now have YouTube Membership. By subscribing, you will receive exclusive content and seminars from Trad KP and Team Business Tomorrow. But if we hope for the best, Professor, if peace is truly signed this Friday, how will the direction of the global economy change? It will still be very slow, as I explained earlier. Because even if a deal is signed on Friday, oil prices will still rise. However, after that, it might adjust, and oil prices won't stay high for long, right? But if it drags on and on, it will go on for a long time. Because when it drags on for a long time, Trump won't allow the blockade to be lifted, right? Iran will close it, making it a double closure. And it's not just about oil; it's also about gas, helium, and fertilizer. This time it's serious, and the impact will be widespread, much broader than just oil. Yes, and what is being looked at after oil and inflation is the issue of interest rates, which are expected to rise. The ECB has already raised interest rates. Japan is also being watched for a potential rate hike. The Fed, or the US central bank, will be the key indicator for the rest of the world. Professor, do you think interest rates will have to rise to this extent due to rising inflation and higher oil prices? This is difficult to predict, but here's the thing: the new chairman, Powell, his past stance has been quite in the direction of having to raise interest rates to curb inflation. His thinking is more along those lines rather than letting it go and causing massive inflation problems. This time, politics is also pressuring them because Trump does not want interest rates to rise. Second, if we talk about it, raising interest rates means tightening the belt, zipping up the mouth, eating less. And when people tighten their belts, they eat less. This is tiring. This is one way of managing. But the problem, as mentioned, when it comes from cost-push, tightening the belt, people feel unwell. Finally, I guess, in the past, when countries faced such problems, they let inflation happen. They print money to manage so that long-term interest rates do not rise too high. Then there is inflation for a while, and then they gradually pull back. That might be a way to solve the problem, allowing ordinary people, the public, to survive. It's better than suddenly tightening their belts, zipping up their mouths, and eating and using less. This is severe. You mean letting the public adjust to higher inflation, right? Rather than managing interest rates? It's like this: inflation, of course, creates a general burden. But suppose I am an employee, and my job is at a company that sells products with high value, necessary items, desirable items that anyone with money will have to buy. In that case, they can adjust the prices of goods or services upwards according to inflation, and they can also adjust the wages or salaries of their employees upwards. In conclusion, both the company and I can survive. Now, those who cannot survive are those whose salaries or incomes are fixed. The government must find a way to solve this. For an economy that is managed with good income distribution down to the lower levels, managing with a little inflation is easier. But for an economy like Thailand, which we have managed for a long time, the benefits are concentrated at the top. Whether GDP is 2% or 3%, it stays at the top and flows down very little to the lower levels, to the point where people are in debt and have no purchasing power because their salaries and incomes are low. The opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises to make a living, to compete with those who have monopolies, is low. In this situation, when managing inflation by letting it happen, it will cause problems because many people are affected. We see examples in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and many other countries. When inflation is high, and the management does not distribute income sufficiently, political problems and protests will arise. Therefore, for countries that do not distribute income, it may be necessary to not let inflation go too high, meaning they have to raise interest rates. That means, in our case, because the issue of income distribution is already being questioned, does that mean Thailand has a chance of raising interest rates, Professor? It's difficult, to put it simply. Raising interest rates, as I said, means we are forcing Thai people to eat and use less, right? If we tighten our belts and eat and use less, but if we don't raise interest rates, inflation will rise, and many people will be affected. We have to try to balance it, to juggle the ball as best as possible. Adjust the economic management process to increase income distribution. Collect taxes from the rich to help the poor more. Organize the management process, which ultimately involves borrowing, then distributing, and then it disappears. And the capacity to borrow keeps disappearing. We need to organize the borrowing process to generate income in the country, both the private and public sectors. In the future, we need to think carefully. The nature of economic management in the second half of this year and the next 2-3 years will be very tiring and difficult. If there is any progress in the situation, we will invite you to share your views again. Thank you very much today, Professor Teerachai. Thank you. We also apologize for the technical difficulties. Thank you, Professor. Goodbye. Goodbye. Professor Thananurubal, former Minister of Finance, and those who follow and analyze global geopolitical situations. The Professor gives considerable weight to the low probability of a peace agreement being signed in Switzerland this Friday. The main reasons are that many points in the agreement to be signed are difficult for the US to accept. Regarding Iran managing the Strait of Hormuz, regarding the US having to return frozen Iranian funds, and the question is where the money will come from and how it will be returned. And regarding the conditions for nuclear weapons development. This part might be a demand that is too difficult to accept. However, if a deal is actually signed, the situation will be better than letting the war drag on. But it will not improve quickly. It's not that the Strait of Hormuz will open, and ships will pour out, and oil will flow out. Professor Chai said that there will still be a period of sailing, especially for oil transportation. There might be moments that cause what is called an air pocket, a period of absence where ships cannot come out, oil cannot come out. The shortage will still occur, and expensive oil will not end. The reaction of oil prices falling by about 4-5% might rise today or occur in a short period. But on the day it actually opens, and the world sees that oil is not flowing out quickly, oil prices will rise again. Therefore, we cannot be complacent about the risk of economic recession, the risk of rising oil prices again, and the energy crisis that may not be over. Strict management will continue at both the government and household levels, as well as at the individual level. Our time for this live session is up. We apologize again for the technical errors. We will meet again next time. Guitar and the team bid farewell. Goodbye. Thank you to everyone who has followed us all along. Our goal is to bring this channel to 1 million subscribers to create a broader society of learning in economics, business, and investment. We now have YouTube Membership. 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