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In the American campaign against Iran, European bases proved vitally important. From the B1 and B-52 bombers that staged from Fairford in England to the medical center at Lunchtool in Germany that treated their casualties, the Americans have made use of these facilities. But if you thought that would impress President Trump, think again.
"They said, 'We'd rather not uh get involved. If we ever needed help, they won't be there for us. I've just known that for a long period of time.'"
Now, he's announced troop cuts in Germany. And it gets worse for the Europeans because having taken the hint that they need to build up their own defenses, they're finding that billions of dollars worth of weapons that they've ordered from America could now be diverted to replenish the Pentagon's own stocks. Everyone knew from the get-go that the old transatlantic relationship was over.
"Leaders of our European allies should take primary responsibility for defense of the continent, which means security ownership by all allies. It should be obvious that increasing allied European defense spending is critical. If you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. nor for that matter is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump."
And in fact, there were plenty in European defense that weren't sorry to hear it. If Trump forced their governments to get serious about their own security, they could see the upside. The Trump administration said it was done with being taken for a ride and finished too with forever wars in the Middle East. Their new priority was to deal with what they called the pacing threat, China, shifting resources towards the Pacific. And for the Europeans, anxious to show America that NATO could still be a worthwhile investment for a uniquely transactional president, perhaps more contracts for American weaponry would sweeten the partnership. Britain said it wanted more F-35 fighters. Germany to buy Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles. Europe was shopping for weaponry, a lot of which only America could provide quickly.
"I can announce this government will begin the biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War."
But now that bet's not looking so smart. The war with Iran has forced everyone to think again. For Donald Trump, the operation to snatch Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro was perfect. It was conducted at a speed that matched his attention span and at a very small cost to America. He wanted another military triumph and bought the Israeli idea that Iran was also ripe for the taking. Once a joint attack on Iran had started, Trump discovered that none of the European allies were willing to help him. Not only did they think the Iran war was ill-conceived, but weren't they also supposed to be focusing on the defense of Europe. Wasn't that what America wanted? One of the few working warships in the fleet, HMS Dragon, was diverted from leading a NATO exercise to head off to the Mediterranean. That was the British government's way of protecting its base in Cyprus without joining in Trump's war. He wasted little time in mocking Star as no Churchill.
"He was willing to send two aircraft carriers after we won. Late great Winston Churchill. You know, unfortunately Kier is not Winston Churchill."
But some other national leaders discovered like the British prime minister had that saying no to Trump gave them a political boost. The president promised retribution against Spain, confessed his disappointment with Italy's leader, and has now announced US forces in Germany will be cut. Not for the first time. There are suggestions from Trump's MAGA outriders that the US should leave NATO altogether. It's a dismal picture for European security. Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, says the alliance is disintegrating under the strain of these arguments. What's more, there are some big challenges for the Europeans. They can invest in their own arms plants, but they can't overnight develop an alternative to the F-35 fighter or Patriot missile. So their ability to boost their own defense still relies a good deal on American technology. And this the supply or not of weaponry is where Trump has hit Europe with a double whammy. Because having demanded we buy American, Trump is sending us Europeans to the back of the queue.
During the Iran war, advanced munitions have been fired off at a prodigious rate. That included the defensive ones, weapons like the Patriot or Talon that you use to kill incoming missiles and attack munitions like the Prism or Tomahawk. The problem is that the factories making the Pentagon's latest generation of advanced weapons have limited capacity and swelling order books. So, a couple of weeks ago, the US notified those with orders for new weaponry, including European countries, that they would have to wait until the Americans have restocked their own magazines, replacing all that ordinance used against Iran.
Recently, the Europeans discovered it was even worse. Not only will the Pentagon be shunting them down the waiting list, but the administration has made an emergency request for $17 billion worth of weapons to go to the Gulf States. Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait have fired off hundreds of Patriot missiles since February and want them among other weaponry replaced. How far down the list to Germany, Spain, Sweden, and other European countries that have ordered this missile go? One estimate is that fulfilling the new Gulf orders will take 4 years worth of American production of Patriot missiles. As for offensive weapons, Germany had been hoping to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles, but having launched more than 1,000 of them against Iran, the Pentagon will get priority on restocks. And with the factory making only around 100 Tomahawks each year, the Germans have given up hope of getting any.
If you were feeling unsympathetic, you might say that European countries are now paying for their neglect of defense during happier times. Their forces shrunk, and along with that, the defense industrial base skills as well as plants dwindled, too. But it's hard not to draw the conclusion that their current difficulties are being made worse by Donald Trump. Increasingly, the Europeans look to other suppliers while they rebuild their own armament sector. And ultimately, that greater competition may well harm American exports, too.