Kyle Vogt: Cruise Automation | Lex Fridman Podcast #14

以下是与科尔沃德的对话。他是克鲁兹自动化公司的总裁兼首席技术官，正领导一项旨在解决我们时代最大的机器人挑战之一——车辆自动化的工作。他是两家成功公司 Twitch 和 Cruz 的联合创始人，这两家公司都以十亿美元的价格出售。他是硅谷蓬勃发展的创新精神的绝佳典范，现在正面临着一项有趣而激动人心的挑战，即如何将这种精神与像通用汽车这样的大型汽车制造商的大规模生产和以安全为中心的文化相匹配。这次对话是麻省理工学院人工智能系列讲座和人工智能播客的一部分。如果您喜欢，请在 YouTube、iTunes 上订阅，或在 Twitter 上与我联系，我的用户名是 Lex Friedman，拼写为 Fri D。现在，这是我与科尔沃德的对话。

你在堪萨斯长大，对吧？是的。我刚才看到了你那张照片，你知道，我有点担心。是的。所以在堪萨斯城的高中，你加入了肖尼使命北高中机器人队。是的。那不是你的高中，对吧？没错。那是那个地区唯一一所拥有愿意赞助 FIRST 机器人比赛的老师的高中。我本来想稍微捉弄你一下，让你看起来超级酷和严肃，因为你知道，这是 BattleBots，这是严肃的生意。所以我们站在那里，带着焊接的钢架，看起来很强硬。

那么，回到机器人技术，那是什么？我想我一直在努力弄清楚这一点，但我一直喜欢用乐高积木来建造东西。当我真的很小的时候，我想要乐高积木，里面有马达和其他东西。然后，你知道，乐高 Mindstorms 出来了，第一次你可以编程乐高装置。我想，从那时起，事情就滚雪球般发展了。但我记得看到过，你知道，喜剧中心播出的 BattleBots 电视节目，并认为那是世界上最酷的东西。我想参与其中，但又不知道如何建造这些重达 200 磅的战斗机器人。所以我有点痴迷地翻阅互联网论坛，所有 BattleBots 的创作者都会在那里闲逛，谈论，你知道，记录他们的建造进度和一切。我想我读了，我一定读了数万个论坛帖子，基本上是关于这些人所做的一切。最终，我算是弄清楚了如何将这些东西组合起来，然后，你知道，我 13 或 14 岁时就参加了 BattleBots，这很棒。我不确定这个节目是否还在播出，但 BattleBots 确实存在。它没有人工智能组件，它是远程控制的。是的，它几乎就像一个机械的通用挑战。是的，我认为可以被破坏的东西都是无线电控制的。而且，我认为他们允许某种有限形式的自主性，但你知道，在两分钟的比赛中，你真的在做一件不利于自己的事情，试图自动化它，而不是简单地，你知道，做实际的事情，就是自己驾驶它。

娱乐方面，只是去 YouTube，那里有……有些机器人挥舞着斧头，有些机器人……我的意思是，很有趣。那么，是什么吸引你走向那个方面？不是机械工程，对吧？是创造像弗兰肯斯坦一样有感知能力的生物的梦想吗？我只是喜欢乐高，喜欢摆弄东西。我的意思是，那只是在建造东西。我认为，你知道，这个无线电控制的机器，它可以做各种事情，如果它有武器之类的，这很有趣。我同意，它不像，你知道，自主机器人那样有吸引力，我后来也倾向于那样。但它绝对是一个工程挑战，因为你在比赛中所做的一切都是将组件推向极限。所以我们会买，你知道，这些价值 40 美元的直流电机，它们来自皮卡车前面的绞盘，或者类似的东西。我们会用它们为汽车供电，然后我们会以额定电压的两倍或三倍的电压运行它们。所以它们会立即开始过热。但对于那两分钟的比赛，你可以获得，你知道，在它们烧毁之前，这些电机的功率输出会显著增加。所以你对电池组、系统中的所有材料也做同样的事情。我认为，仅仅看到事物在哪里会损坏，这本身就很有趣。

你们都会飞过去看看它们在哪里损坏吗？你们会把它带到测试点吗？你们是怎么知道两分钟的？还是有那种鲁莽的“我们就这样吧，看看会发生什么”？我们在 BattleBots 上并不擅长，我们输掉了所有的比赛，都在第一轮。比如我建造的第一个，它们都是楔形机器人，因为楔形机器人虽然看起来很无聊，但却非常有效。你朝着另一个机器人开去，它的前缘会卡在它下面，然后它们就会翻倒，有点像门挡。第一个在前面有一个气动的抛光不锈钢尖刺，可以伸出大约八英寸。它的目的是什么？实际上相当无效，但它看起来很酷。它有帮助抬升吗？不，它只是试图在另一个机器人上戳洞。然后第二次我这样做，我想是在大约 18 个月后，我们有一个钛斧，上面有一个硬化钢尖端，由液压缸驱动，我们用液态二氧化碳激活它，这本身就带来了一系列问题。

所以，这在硬件方面很棒。我的意思是，在某个时候，你一定对软件方面产生了迷恋。那么，你写的第一个代码是什么？回到那里，看看是什么语言？是 Emacs 还是 Vim？还是一个更体面的现代 IDE？你还记得这些吗？是的。我记得，我想，大概在我三年级或四年级的时候，学校里有很多 Apple II 电脑，我们在上面玩游戏。我记得偶尔会发生一些事情，它会崩溃，无法正确启动，然后就会把你带到一个我后来才知道的命令行界面。我的老师会过来，输入，我至今仍记得，出于某种原因，比如 PR number six 或 PR pound six，也就是外围设备 6，也就是磁盘驱动器，它会启动磁盘并加载程序。我只是记得想，哇，她就像一个黑客。教我这些代码，这些错误代码，我当时是这么叫的。但她对此不感兴趣。所以直到我五年级的时候，我才在一所学校里，你可以真正地在这些 Apple II 上学习编程。所以，一切都是用 BASIC 语言编写的。你知道，每一行，你知道，行号都是数字，每一行都有编号。你必须在数字之间留出足够的空间，这样如果你想调整你的代码，你就可以回去。第一行是 10，第二行是 20。现在你必须回去插入 15。如果你需要在它前面添加代码，你知道，11 或 12。你希望你不会用完行号，不得不重新做整个事情。

有 GOTO 语句，是的。GOTO。而且它非常基础。也许这是一个名字，但很有趣。那是我，你知道，很有趣。那是当你，你知道，当你第一次编程时，你看到了它的魔力。就像，这个世界为你打开了，你知道，你可以用那台电脑建造或完成的事情有着无限的可能性。所以你中毒了。那么，从 BASIC 开始，然后是 C++？你在高中时学过计算机程序和计算机科学课程吗？不是在我去的学校。所以是自学的。但我做了很多编程。真正让我走上最终从事自动驾驶汽车工作的道路的事情，实际上是其中一次非常长的旅行，从我在堪萨斯的家开车到，我想是拉斯维加斯，我们参加了 BattleBots 比赛。我刚拿到我的，我想是我的学习驾照或早期驾照。所以我要开车穿越西部堪萨斯州长达 10 个小时，那里只有一条笔直的高速公路。这是一种令人麻木的无聊。我记得即使在那时，以我那平庸的编程背景，我也在想，这是计算机可以做的事情，对吧？让我们拍一张路的照片，找到黄色的车道标记，然后，你知道，转动方向盘。你知道，后来我意识到，这自 80 年代或 70 年代甚至更早的时候就已经完成了。但我仍然想做。在那次旅行之后，我几乎立即从 BattleBots，也就是更偏向于遥控机器，转向了思考建造，你知道，某种规模的自动驾驶汽车。从小型的电动汽车开始，然后，你知道，发展到我们现在正在做的事情。

那么，你当时对人工智能的看法是什么？你知道，这是在人工智能出现浪潮之前，对吧？目前的深度学习浪潮让人们相信，你可以以一种非常丰富和深刻的方式解决计算机视觉感知问题。但就像在深度学习热潮之前，你知道，你怎么看待如何构建一个能够感知自身和世界，定位自身在世界中，在世界中移动的东西？当你年轻的时候，是的，你当时是怎么想的？在深度神经网络或卷积神经网络，这些现代技术出现之前，或者至少是今天使用的技术之前，一切都是基于启发式的。所以就像老式的图像处理。我认为从道路图像中提取黄色的车道标记是那些启发式方法可以很好地解决的问题之一。你知道，就像对黄色进行阈值处理，然后尝试使用霍夫变换之类的东西来拟合一些线条，然后从那里开始。交通灯检测，然后停止标志检测，红色、黄色、绿色。我认为你可以，我的意思是，如果你想做一个完整的，我只是想制造一个能停在高速公路车道之间的东西。但如果你想拥有一个驾驶员可以完全使用的全套能力，我认为你可以。我们在 Cruise 已经这样做了，你知道，在最初的日子里，你可以从一个非常简单的，你知道，人类编写的启发式方法开始，只是为了让你的系统获得脚手架。交通灯检测，可能是一个非常简单的，你知道，基于颜色的阈值处理系统就可以运行，然后再迁移到，你知道，基于深度学习的技术或其他东西。而且，你知道，在我做这个的时候，我的第一个是在一台 Pentium 2 233 兆赫兹的电脑上。而且，我想我用 BASIC 写了第一个版本，这是一种解释型语言，速度非常慢，因为那是我当时唯一知道的。所以根本没有机会使用，没有计算能力来做任何像今天这样合理的深度网络。所以我不知道现在的孩子们在做什么。现在的孩子们在 13 岁时就在他们的车库里使用神经网络了吗？我的意思是，我也经常收到邮件，来自，你知道，像 11、12 岁的孩子说，我正在，你知道，我正在尝试遵循这个 TensorFlow 教程，我遇到了这个问题。他们的深度学习社区中的一般方法是极度的乐观，与你提到的启发式方法相反。你可以将自动驾驶问题分解成模块，并尝试严格地解决它，或者你直接端到端地解决。大多数人只是喜欢这个想法，你知道，我们人类是端到端的，我们只是感知和行动。我们应该能够使用它，做同样的事情。当你这样做的时候，你不想批评这种思维方式，因为最终他们会是对的。是的。所以这很令人兴奋，尤其是当他们年轻的时候去探索它，这是一种非常令人兴奋的方法。但是的，它改变了语言，你用它变绿的东西。看到他们长大成人，这很有趣。我只能想象，如果你的起点是，你知道，13 岁的 Python 和 TensorFlow，那么 10 或 15 年后你会变成什么样子。这真的很酷，因为有了 GitHub，因为现在解决人工智能领域大多数主要问题都有工具，对于大多数孩子来说，只需要几行代码。想到这一点真是不可思议。

在创业方面，在那之前，你有没有想过创业？在大学之前，你是否一直在将这个东西发展成一个能够大规模影响世界的事业？是的，我一直想创办一家公司。我认为，你知道，创造一些东西并用价值来交换它，或者创造价值，这是一种很酷的概念。所以，我在高中时，我一直在尝试建造，你知道，伺服电机驱动器，小电路板，并在网上出售它们，或者其他类似的东西。当然，我知道总有一天我想创办一家初创公司。但直到大学，我才真正觉得我有了，我想，正确的环境组合，周围的聪明人，以及一些空闲时间，在麻省理工学院有很多空闲时间。

所以你 2004 年来到麻省理工学院读本科，对吧？是的。那时正是第一届 DARPA 大挑战赛 happening，对吧？是的。那个时机真是太美妙了。那么，你最初是如何参与其中的呢？最初没有官方的参赛队伍。这是一个由教职员工赞助的项目。所以，我和包括我在内的一群本科生开始见面，并试图争取一些赞助。我们得到了一辆捐赠的车辆，一堆传感器，并试图把一些东西组合起来。所以我们的团队可能主要是大一和大二的学生。你知道，这与来自其他学校的博士后和教职员工领导的团队相比，并不是一场公平的竞争。但我们确实让一些东西运行起来了。我们的车辆是“线控”的，而且，你知道，非常基础的控制和东西。但在资格赛的预选赛那天，我们购买的唯一一个转向电机，我们用来转动卡车方向盘的东西坏了。所以我们的车就搁浅了，无法转向。所以我们没走多远。

在硬件方面呢？有软件组件吗？就像，你对自动驾驶汽车的看法，就人工智能而言，在这个时刻是如何演变的？我的意思是，你知道，就像你说的，从 80 年代开始就有自动驾驶汽车了，但那真的是现代浪潮的开端，吸引了所有人的想象力，我们真的可以做到。那么，你当时是如何被吸引的呢？那么，你对自动驾驶汽车的看法在那时是如何改变的？我想，在那时，它是，它是好奇心，就像，这真的可能吗？我认为，这就是最初的 DARPA 大挑战赛的精神和目的，就是让一群非常聪明的人探索这个领域并突破极限。而且，我认为，直到今天，DARPA 的挑战赛，它有，你知道，一百万美元的奖金池，可能是纳税人最有效的资金使用方式之一，就我所见而言。因为，你知道，DARPA 提出的这个小小的倡议，在我看来，是整个下一波自动驾驶汽车发展的催化剂或转折点。所以那很酷。

那么，让我稍微跳跃一下。他们还举办了城市挑战赛，我在城市里，但它非常人工化，没有行人，人类的参与非常少，除了几个专业司机。你认为还有空间吗？然后是人形机器人挑战赛，对吧？所以，在你现在的角色中，你正在解决，你知道，自动驾驶，旧金山最困难、最具影响力的地区之一。DARPA 是否有空间介入，也帮助一下？挑战新的想法，特别是行人等等，所有这些有趣的事情？嗯，我没有从那个角度考虑过。DARPA 今天能做些什么来进一步加速事情吗？我想说，我的直觉是，这可能不是他们资源和时间的最高效利用，因为你知道，启动和启动飞轮，我认为这就是他们在此案例中所做的，花费很少的钱。但今天，这已经变得对非常大的公司来说具有商业吸引力。投入其中的资金，以及像你这样的课程中学习这些东西并发展这些技能的人数，比那时要多得多。所以，现在这个领域有足够的动力、惯性、能量和投资美元，我认为，我认为他们可以就此打住，然后继续关注下一个需要帮助的技术领域。

那么，回到麻省理工学院，你在大三时离开了，那是个怎样的决定？正如我所说，我一直想创办一家公司。这个机会降临到我头上，有几个来自耶鲁大学的人正在创办一家新公司。我谷歌了他们，发现他们以前创办过一家公司，并且以大约二十五万美元的价格出售了它，这真是一个有趣的故事。所以我想，这些人是，你知道，摇滚明星创业家，他们以前做过这件事。他们一定开着法拉利，因为他们卖掉了公司。而且，我想我可以从他们那里学到很多东西。所以我和那些家伙组队，你知道，在麻省理工学院的 IEP（独立项目）期间去了加州，那是麻省理工学院的一个月假期，只有一张单程机票。基本上再也没有回来。我们玩得很开心，感觉我们在建造一些东西，创造一些东西，而且会很有趣。你知道，我全身心投入，完全着迷了。那家公司就是 justin.tv，最初是一个关于一个叫 Justin 的人的真人秀，后来演变成了一个直播视频流媒体平台，然后又演变成了今天的 Twitch。所以那是一段相当出乎意料的旅程。

所以没有遗憾？没有回头看？那是一张单程票，我的意思是，如果我们就此停顿一下，你怎么知道这些人是合适的人？这是正确的决定？你没有觉得这只是凭感觉走吗？嗯，我不知道。但你知道，在 IEP 期间尝试一个月似乎风险很小，对吧？对。然后，你知道，也许我会休学一个学期，麻省理工学院对此很灵活，你总可以回去，对吧？然后，经过两三个这样的周期，我最终放弃了。但你知道，我想，在这种情况下，我觉得如果我必须的话，我总能按下撤销按钮，对吧？但从回顾来看，这似乎是一个勇敢的决定。你知道，这很难，很多人都很难做出这个决定。当时，离开麻省理工学院的人大多是去波士顿或纽约的金融或咨询工作，很少有人去加州创业。但今天，我想情况可能已经颠倒了，这只是时代变迁的标志，我想。

是的，有一个关于 2007 年 3 月 18 日午夜的故事，TechCrunch 好像报道了。Justin.tv 比预定时间早了几个小时上线。网站没工作。我不知道这些是否是真的，你可以告诉我。你和 Justin 的一位同事整晚都在写代码。你能带我回顾一下那段经历吗？那么，让我先说一些好话。我读到的文章引用了 Justin Kahn 的话，他说你以通宵解决问题和富有创造力而闻名， quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote_quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quote，quot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你将这一点与人们在路上进行比较，如果另一辆车，无论是人类驾驶员还是自动驾驶汽车，延迟他们三秒钟，他们就会按喇叭，你知道，即使那是，你知道，他们每天浪费在看 Facebook 的时间中的千分之一，所以这里肯定有一些心理学方面的因素，我认为这些因素非常有趣，比如路怒症，然后问题当然是，如果每个人都开自动驾驶汽车，他们还会注意到这三秒钟的延迟吗？因为他们在做其他事情，或者阅读，或者工作，或者只是互相交谈，所以看看这会走向何方会很有趣，在某种程度上，人们需要被车内的一些有趣或有用的东西分散注意力，这样他们就不会关注外部世界，然后，然后，它就可以带走任何心理学，带回 Twitter，然后专注于这一点，而不是那种互动，那种把情感发泄到世界上，所以这是一个有趣的问题，但我想你可以说，基线自主性，也就是大规模的自动驾驶汽车，可能会将社会的集体血压降低几点，是的，没有了所有那些路怒症和压力，所以这是一个很好的外部效应，回到你关于技术的问题，我想最大的问题是，我很难回答这个问题，因为你知道，我们一直在研究这个问题，特别是专注于无人驾驶汽车以及实现这一目标所需的所有技术，已经四年半多了，即使在一两年后，我也觉得我们已经完成了让某人从 A 点到 B 点所需的功能，也就是说，如果我们要做一个左转机动，或者如果我们必须绕过一辆双排停放的车辆进入迎面而来的车流，或者穿过建筑工地，脚手架和构建块很早就存在了，所以挑战不在于任何一个场景或情况，我们会在其中 100% 失败，更多的是，你知道，我们正在与一个相当好或相当高的标准进行比较，那就是人类驾驶，考虑到所有因素，人类在处理边缘情况和意外情况方面非常出色，而计算机则相反，所以要超越人类设定的基准是挑战，所以我们一直在做的是一个持续改进的过程，我们找到那种最令人不适或可能导致安全问题的事情，以及所有这些事件，然后我们对其进行分类，并重新构建我们系统的部分，以进行渐进式改进，并一遍又一遍地重复，我们只是看到系统的整体性能以相当稳定的速度提高，但没有一个单一的问题，实际上是成千上万的小问题，就像打磨功能一样，并确保它能够处理，你知道，每一种可能的情况的排列，无论是通过应用更多的深度学习系统，还是通过，你知道，增加更多的测试覆盖率或我们开发的新的场景，然后只是在那里打磨，我们现在正处于开发中不那么令人兴奋的阶段，那就是进行真正的工程工作，从原型到生产，你基本上是在扩大打磨的规模，所以它基本上是认真对待所有边缘情况的过程，无论是通过人类专家还是机器学习方法来覆盖所有这些情况，是的，对我来说令人兴奋的是，我认为这种打磨永远不会停止，因为有一个时刻，你越过了人类表现的门槛，成为了超人，但没有理由，没有第一原理的理由，自动驾驶汽车的能力会接近人类的极限，没有理由它不能提高 20 倍，无论是，你知道，只是更好的驾驶，更安全的驾驶，更舒适的驾驶，甚至提高 1000 倍，只要有足够的时间，我们打算基本上永远追求这一点，以构建最好的产品，越来越好，越来越好，并且总是有新的教育者出现，你也有新的经历，所以你想尽可能地自动化这个过程，嗯，所以你认为总的来说，在社会中，你认为我们什么时候会有成千上万辆全自动驾驶汽车在路上行驶？所以首先，预测没有人知道未来，你是定义这个未来的人之一，但即使那样，你仍然不知道，但如果你想到成千上万辆，所以主要城市中很大一部分车辆是自动驾驶的，你认为我会罗德尼·布鲁克斯，他是 2050 年及以后，你更倾向于埃隆·马斯克，他说我们两年前就应该有了？嗯，我不想说我们两年前就有了，但我们还没有，所以我想我会这样想，让我们把这个问题反过来问，什么会阻止你达到成千上万辆汽车？这是一个很好的重新表述，是的，所以我想说，今天开发自动驾驶汽车的人们似乎普遍认为，应该从某种更容易的环境开始，无论这意味着，你知道，缺乏恶劣天气，或者，你知道，大部分是晴天，或者其他什么，然后随着时间的推移增加处理更复杂情况的能力，所以如果你只能在符合你的标准或当前软件的运行领域的地方部署，这可能会限制你可以部署的城市数量，但然后随着这些限制开始消失，比如你增加了，你知道，在雨雪天气中也能很好地安全驾驶的能力，你知道，这可能会将市场扩大两到三倍，就你可以扩展到的城市而言，等等，所以真正的问题是，你知道，我知道今天如果我们愿意，我们可以生产出那么多自动驾驶汽车，但我们还不能充分利用它们，因为我们会在我们最初想要运营的城市中饱和需求，所以如果我猜一下，这些限制消失并达到成千上万辆汽车的时间线，也许是一个范围，但我会说不到五年，五年内，是的，当然你也在努力让这一切发生，所以你创办了两家公司，最终都以十亿美元的价格被收购，所以你是一个很好的提问对象，要建立一家成功的初创公司需要什么？嗯，我认为这里有一点幸存者偏差，但我可以试着找到一些我做得好的共同点，那就是，你知道，在这两家公司里，我都对核心技术充满热情，我实际上喜欢，你知道，夜不能寐地思考这些问题以及如何解决它们，我认为这很有帮助，因为当你创业时，直到今天，都有这些疯狂的起起落落，有一天你认为公司就在你手中，势不可挡，第二天你就认为，好吧，这一切都要结束了，你知道，它正在走下坡路，明天就会结束，我认为拥有你可以依靠的真正热情，并且知道即使你不拿报酬也会去做，这有助于你度过那些艰难的时期，所以这是一件事，我认为另一件事是真正优秀的人，我一直被非常优秀的联合创始人包围，他们是逻辑思考者，总是挑战极限，并且具有非常高的诚信水平，所以这是我的现任公司中的丹·汗，实际上是他的兄弟，还有其他几个人，比如 Justin TV 和 Twitch，然后我认为最后一件事是坚持不懈或毅力，这可以适用于坚持你的想法的原始前提，并坚持完成所有，你知道，不那么令人兴奋的工作，使其成为现实，包括处理，你知道，你不是热情的事情，无论是金融，还是人力资源，还是运营，还是那些事情，只要你一直在努力朝着你的商业北极星前进，无论它是什么，你都不放弃，并且每天都在取得进步，似乎最终你会有一个好的结果，唯一能减缓你的事情是，你知道，钱用完了，或者我想你的竞争对手摧毁了你，但我认为大多数时候是人们放弃了，或者以某种方式摧毁了自己，而不是被竞争对手击败或钱用完了，是的，如果你从不放弃，你最终会到达那里，所以这是我试图说的精简版，是的，所以你想参加 Y Combinator 两次，嗯，你认为在早期阶段筹集资金的最佳方式是什么，或者不仅仅是资金，而是发展你的想法和社区等等，你可以独自完成，或者可能与联合创始人一起，自筹资金，你认为 Y Combinator 很好，风险投资路线很好吗？没有正确答案，Y Combinator 的经历有没有什么可以让你 takeaway 的，那就是正确的道路？没有一刀切的答案，但如果你的雄心是，我认为是，你知道，看看你能把某件事做得多大，或者快速扩张并占领市场，或者解决问题，或者其他什么，那么，你知道，风险投资路线可能是一个好方法，所以资本不会成为你的主要限制，我喜欢 Y Combinator，因为它让你置身于一种竞争环境中，在那里你被，你知道，顶尖的 1% 的其他非常有动力的，你知道的同行所包围，他们处于同一个地方，我认为这种环境会孕育成功，对吧？如果你被一群非常聪明、努力工作的人包围，你会感到，你知道，有义务或受到启发去模仿他们，或者击败他们，所以即使我以前做过一次，我觉得，是的，我很有动力，我想，好吧，这是一个艰难的问题，我可以得到所有我能得到的帮助，所以让我周围有其他企业家会让我比值得的更努力地工作，或者更努力地推动，所以这就是我第二次参加的原因，让我们来谈谈哲学和存在主义，如果你回到高中时，在 MIT 离开 MIT 之前，你可能会选择 PG 路线，创办一家初创公司，我会在加州创办一家初创公司，你可能在融资方面有一些方面，你有什么遗憾吗？不一定是什么，但如果你回到过去，你会做些不同的事情吗？我认为我犯了很多错误，你知道，几乎所有你能搞砸的事情，我认为我都搞砸过至少一次，但我，你知道，我不后悔那些事情，我认为很难，很难回顾那些事情，即使它们没有顺利进行，并称之为遗憾，因为希望你从中吸取了新的知识或学习，所以我想说，有一段时间，是的，我最接近的是，在 Justin.tv 的七年后，公司朝着一个方向发展，那就是 Twitch 和视频游戏，我不是一个视频游戏玩家，我甚至都不怎么用 Twitch，我仍然在那里从事核心技术工作，但我的心已经不在那里了，因为我们正在创造的业务不是我个人热衷的事情，它没有达到你对存在意义的要求，是的，我想我可能在那里多花了一两年，我想，如果我能回头看看，我会说，我本可以更早地做些不同的事情，因为那是两年，我觉得，你知道，从哲学或存在主义的角度来看，我只是，我只是觉得有些东西缺失了，所以如果我能回头看看，我会告诉自己，我会说，你现在从工作中得不到任何意义，你应该想办法改变它，这就是我用来向所有加入 Cruise 的人推销的，就像，嘿，你现在通过来这里得到了它，嗯，也许你需要两年的存在主义恐惧来培养最终创造 Cruise 的火焰，所以你永远不知道，这可能是个好理论，是的，所以最后一个问题，2019 年对 Cruise 来说意味着什么，在这次之后，我想我们会去，我会和你的班级谈谈，但其中一件大事是从原型到生产自动驾驶汽车，那意味着什么，2019 年对我们来说是什么样的，是我们试图跨越那个门槛，在某种程度上达到超人水平的软件性能，并拥有所有其他数千个小构建块，以推出，你知道，我们的第一个商业产品，所以这就是我们为我们准备的，我们有很多工作要做，我们有很多聪明的人在做这件事，所以现在一切都取决于我们了，是的，从 Charlie Miller 和 Chris Fells 这样的人那里，我遇到过他们，如果你知道，听起来你有一个很棒的团队，就像我说的，我认为这是本世纪人工智能中最重要的问题之一，你将是定义这个问题的最重要的人之一，你从事这项工作非常令人兴奋，祝你在 2019 年好运，我真的很期待看到 Cruise 会有什么新产品，谢谢，谢谢你今天邀请我，通话愉快。