Iran is OVER, SpaceX RALLIES - Is Tesla Stock Next?

live session, and we are going to go through the latest in this very, very exciting market. Debu. The first actual day of SpaceX trading. But before we jump into that, of course, we have to talk about the big news that makes the market really, like, crazy today. And that is the Iran deal. And the Iran deal was long in the making, as you probably know, but this time is real. This time is real. Maybe some people say I'm crazy. Uh, this is all fake news. But let me tell you first why this time is real. And how I was able to predict that a long time ago, when I actually said, probably three weeks ago, no, five weeks already. Five weeks ago, I made a very clear statement. I said, the Iran war is de facto over, even though that was not clear to everyone back then. And I want to just dive into that a little bit because it teaches us a lesson in geopolitics and in macro.

As you know, I said from the very outset of the breakout of this war that it will be a very short war, that it will be a total taco. Even though some of you are offended by taco, so let's, I came up with a different word. I forgot. Tapa. Uh, Trump always pivots away. Tapa. Tapas. So I said it's going to be short. It's going to be just a little trick, and Trump is going to pull out very quickly. And initially, I was wrong. As you all remember, it went on and on, and everyone thought, what the hell is going on here? Why did I say it in the beginning that this conflict is not a serious conflict and the US doesn't have many options? Because you cannot invade Iran. It is militarily not possible. The regime is too embedded. It's a too complex country, and it's by no means anything close to, you know, Venezuela and all these things. So it was very clear from a military perspective, you cannot do much. You can fake it a little bit with some bombing. That is fine. But you can't do more. And a smart president would understand that and pull out very quickly. Now, Trump is a smart president. That was the surprising thing that he didn't get it, or maybe he got it, but he got entangled more and more.

Five weeks ago, I said, now it's really over. Why was that clear? Because there was a forcing function on the United States and the rest of the world, not so much on Iran. And the Strait of Hormuz closure was absolutely a thing that had to stop right now. End of June, end of June was the latest that had to stop in order to avoid a global economic catastrophe because we were running on fumes more and more. Oil gets depleted more and more, the reserves. And if the Strait of Hormuz would have been kept closed beyond end of June, it would have been a complete and utter disaster. And so there was a ticking time bomb for ending the war. That is why I was absolutely, absolutely convinced the war is over. And sometimes you have to look through all the noise, all the nuke stuff, blah, blah, blah, and all these other things. In the end, we all have to deal with reality. And the reality was, no one can afford this war. The only nation that can actually afford this war was ironically Iran because they're used to suffering much more. They don't care if there's a little bit of a problem. They can go through this. In America, not so much. So that is how I analyze macroeconomics and geo strategy. In the end, this is about money. It's always about money. And when it comes to hard walls you're hitting, you can predict what's going to happen. That is why I said to everyone, don't be concerned about the market. Don't be concerned about a crash. This thing is going to end. Oil is not going to go through the roof. Even though I said there is a tail risk that something gets out of control, but I have some confidence in the Trump administration that it's run sufficiently intelligently and they are not going to commit a major mistake like this. So that was the reason why I predicted this.

Let's go to the markets and what they do today. After this whole announcement here, of course, Tesla is always sad, but, uh, NASDAQ, let's talk about NASDAQ first. NASDAQ on an absolute tear, uh, 2.89% up. We see the S&P with 1.61% up. That's a lot for the S&P, and the Dow Jones 1%. So it is mostly the NASDAQ that is rallying. Uh, but we also see some other interesting things. Before we go into SpaceX and Tesla, uh, I want to just slide in quickly, uh, Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is actually one of the more interesting elements here where we see a pretty massive rise in Bitcoin over the last since the deal was announced. Let me just show you guys how this actually looks like. United States dollar. Here it is. So we had 66,589. That is actually up a lot, even though it doesn't look like it. Look at where over the last five days. You see it here, the announcement. We were at 63,694, and we are now at 66,589. So that completes the bounce, which is a very serious bounce at this point. We reached the same lows as in February, even though it's not visible in this chart, but was the same lows. This was completely sucked down when we had this market correction, bounced off the 60,000, a very important strategic floor, it seems, more and more. And we are potentially setting up for a giant rally when you look at the bigger chart.

Why is that important? Maybe you're just into Tesla and SpaceX and Nvidia and AI. Maybe you don't care about crypto, but crypto has been a harbinger recently, a lead indicator, a leading indicator for a lot of things I'm seeing. So I like to look at crypto. Crypto is actually interesting because over the last six months, year, it developed something of a leading indicator nature that really acted faster and before the market acted. So the fact that we are now really on a rise, a strong rise, is very interesting. And you see, by the way, the same with Ethereum, the second largest crypto, very important. Look at that. Ethereum is up like crazy, and especially over the last day. Look at this. 5.74%. Very interesting. Rising very rapidly. It was in the 1,500s. So that signals something for me. I'm always a little cautious with crypto because you never know with the crypto guys what's going on there. But the fundamental buildout of Ethereum is massive. The fundamental adoption of Bitcoin is massive. So both of them dropped very hard into a fundamentally improving environment for the crypto, for the blockchains, for Ethereum, and for Bitcoin. So that is an interesting development. So I think they have built up tremendous upside potential at this point. The question is just technically, when do they go through the resistance? And I think that will be correlated also with a major, major market rally that we are setting up. And as you probably know, I am very bullish on the AI situation.

So let's take a look at another stock. You know which one before we go to Tesla, and that is SpaceX. And SpaceX is on a total tear. Not too surprising. It was predictable that we go on a rally for SpaceX, the hottest company on Earth, the hottest company in history, the biggest corporation very soon on Earth. This is all very predictable. But you know, I don't own SpaceX. I think it's overvalued tactically short-term right now. I'm going to wait for a big retracement, potentially below IPO price. That's what I think. That's what I think because this crazy rally we see right now is a function, first of all, of hype, but also of mechanics. So let's go a little bit into the SpaceX mechanics, and I talked about this yesterday. Why is SpaceX up so much? There are two tables that are interesting. First of all, you see all the bullish tables that everyone knows, right? That June 26th is the inclusion of the Russell indexes, indices. July 6th is the inclusion in the NASDAQ 100, and following these dates, all the ETFs, all the index funds have to include them. They have no choice. They have to buy SpaceX. So all the ETFs, all the index funds that are linked to these indices that we see an inclusion into June 26th and July 6th will then have over the next months, uh, I I don't know exactly the cadence, but probably month-end or quarter-end. So it all has to happen latest by September. They have to buy SpaceX. And at the same time, so on the demand side, you have forced demand into the stock, and everyone knows it. That's why SpaceX can only go up right now. Everyone knows it. Not investment advice. I'm not buying SpaceX. I don't like the tactical valuation. I don't know that I don't like the tactical outlook. But if you want to gamble a little bit, the odds that this thing keeps rising are extremely high short-term.

The other reason why this keeps rising is because no one is allowed to sell SpaceX. So the insiders, the people who owned that, even the people who bought it at IPO, who got issuance at IPO from most brokers have a lock-in clause of 15 days to 30 days, and the insiders have all kinds of lockout clauses up to 180 days, but then releasing quarter by quarter, month by month. So in other words, right now SpaceX had has a Goldilocks moment of extreme hype worldwide. The best executed IPO I've ever seen. By the way, it's unbelievable what they always pull off, the Elon people. Absolute perfection in execution on marketing, on book running, on institutional marketing, on retail marketing, on all marketing, and behind the scenes, absolute perfection. So Goldilocks moment, maximum hype, number one. Maximum forced buying by index funds, number two, coming very soon in the next two weeks, and then ongoing. Number three, forced not selling, you're not allowed to sell. Okay, if you hype a stock, you force everyone, all the index funds to buy, and you do not allow anyone to sell, at least no one big. Well, guess what happens? The stock has to go up. But guess what happens next? Once the buying pressure seizes, which happens as early as August or end of middle of July, it already fades a little bit, and then the sellers are allowed to come in. And that combination, in my opinion, and the hype is going down, and the critics come out of the gate. This leads to this famous chart that I, you know, didn't invent. I stole it from someone on X. Uh, some, some of you actually connected me to some accounts that used that before. So we try to trace down the actual author, but I don't believe it's a crypto guy that was connected. In any case, that is the chart that I believe is happening. Uh, here, IPO excitement. Forget the retail thing. I, I hate the retail bashing. But basically, drives up index inclusion, forced buying. Everyone has to buy. No one is allowed to sell. Then the forced buying stops because the inclusion has been completed or mostly completed. Then the unlock comes. 15 days, first retail can sell. 30 days, more retail can sell. 60 days, the first locked-in guys, big guys can sell. And so then it's just downhill. You're losing all the buying pressure, and all the selling pressure can now be released. Plus, the hype is fading, and then you go down. It's just incredibly likely to go like that. Plus, at some point, we have a market correction or maybe a crash. I think we are setting up for a giant rally now. And I think we are railing right into the problematic end of third quarter, beginning of fourth quarter. Every time it gets choppy and dangerous. Remember November last year, and normally that happens in September, October, November. So we are setting up for a perfect storm in the other direction, probably early Q4, where the market gets hammered, and SpaceX runs out of fumes, out of hype, out of selling, uh, buying pressure, and into selling pressure. Boom. And then this stock can easily go to 80. And when it does that, then me Joe comes in, Pioneer Alpha comes in, the Pioneer comes in, and gobble that stuff up because there is no doubt that SpaceX is the hottest company that ever existed. We will have much more coming. I promise you. I know I overpromise on the timelines. That's what why I'm like Elon. I'm always late. Unfortunately, that's only a little piece of Elon. I have that piece already locked down. I'm trying to copy Elon, and I succeeded already in being late on my timelines. So, now I just have to deliver the rest. Um, but we have a lot of SpaceX analytics coming. We have a lot of models coming that outline the entire space opportunity beyond SpaceX. But SpaceX is a big fish, and how it ties into AGI. That's why this thing in the end will come much bigger and faster than people think, but not until probably end of next year. So, we have time to wait to see this drop. But in the meantime, it will, of course, not drop. It will rise and rise and rise because of these reasons that I outlined.

Now, let's get, of course, to our sad, sad best stock ever. Tesla falling. Where is it now? Oh, that's crazy. It had a little run. Tesla becoming very irrational here. But on Tesla, you know my thesis. I repeat it again. I think Tesla is a much stronger company than it was at all-time highs, December 16th, 2025, roughly six months ago. I think we are going back to all-time highs now that the rally is on. We know that there's a rejection point at 440. We have seen this multiple times, and that killed me the second time a little bit. I had a bad time, but so we have to be cautious when we approach 440, there will be resistance again. I think this time we might just break through, go to 490. Uh, we know the entire situation with the robo taxis. You know, there's more news by the way today. Every day there is now more news on the robo taxi situation. I'm incredibly bullish on this whole thing and think big things are going to happen very soon. Uh, of course, we don't know exactly when, but I think we have a local probability maximum in the next two weeks because number one, number one robo taxi. Let's see what we have, or cyber cap here. Look at this. Soya merit 55 cyber caps. And I know some people, they're not just parking lots. They have their little wheel caps on. There are massive amounts of these things, like this is a lot of cars, guys. Think about it for Dallas. And then you have the same in Austin, the same in Houston, and all over the place. So we see this more and more. And we have also the end of the first half of this year coming up. And we know that just six or five months ago, four, four and a half months ago, Tesla announced in the earnings call that, uh, they plan to add five more cities by the end of first half. That [snorts] is now, you know, and we know they're all ramping this stuff up. So I would not be surprised if we see some action. We have to be prepared for some action. If that happens, then we will see very quickly the stock going to all-time highs. And if it doesn't happen, by the way, I think we still go automatically to 440 because that's where we belong anyway in this whole situation. So, right now at 411, I'm tactically very bullish short-term on Tesla. If we go up more to 420, 430, 440 without cyber cap showing some life, I get much more cautious. I will definitely derisk, take leverage down. Right now, I'm leveraged with short puts at the money, a little bit in the money even. Uh, premiums look very good. So, I am at risk right now and, uh, having good days, but I had also very bad days because of that. I was a little early, I think, at 440. I went in too strong because of the cyber cap and all-time high situation and got a little slaughtered. So now I'm making it back, little leverage, but I think below 440 we are safe. At 440 we get unsafe unless we see some action, and if we see action, we go straight to all-time highs. That is what I predict. Not a promise, just a prediction.

And now to conclude this, to conclude this little session, then we can go into the comments. I just want to make one more comment that is political. Uh, I don't know if Elon reacted onto my post or to other people's post, but I was the first one who added Elon to this absolute scandal. Let's throw in some politics here. This absolute scandal. Um, Tesla fanboy. What does he want? Uh, oh. Is it me live here? Is this live? I don't even know. But I want to actually go to my posts here. This is what I just wrote. Um, because Elon Musk is taking legal actions as I recommended. I'm not saying Elon followed my advice. I'm just saying I was the first one to add Elon to this absolute outrage where German state TV, German state TV, which is a very big, the ZDF, Deutsches Fernsehen, which is one piece of the big state TV conglomerate of Germany, and in Germany, everyone is forced. I have a video dedicated video on this coming up probably tomorrow on the state of German politics, the state of this whole situation, the state of the AFD. So you will get a political update probably tomorrow or Wednesday. But this is very important. German State TV, the biggest TV station in Germany, or second biggest with the other state TV station, said publicly on state TV when they showed in their propaganda and propagandistic way what's happening in Ireland. They have painted all the white people bad again. Said, "Oh, the white people now they're chasing down migrants and kill them all." Right after actually, like a white guy got nearly murdered or decapitated. It was horrible, the whole thing. But the ZDF said that is happening. The white supremacist is out hunting down migrants in Ireland, and Elon Musk is calling on them to do that. Elon Musk is calling upon the Irish people to hunt down and kill migrants. Boom. That is what German State TV said, like that. And then I reposted that and said, "Elon, sue these mofos. Blatant unbelievable lies." And they are complete degenerates. I know a bunch of them. So total degenerates. Absolute worst-case Stalinistic propaganda in Germany that we are seeing. Unbelievable. And no one does anything about it. So now Elon says I am taking legal actions against ZDF, and all of Germany is like celebrating because the Germans are oppressed by these people. So unbelievable right here, all, all these German accounts are now commenting on this. Beautiful. There is hope in the world. Please, Elon, bring justice back to Germany and sue the hell out of these people because this time you get them because what they did is full-on defamation under German law because you can't, you can't just lie about people on TV about stuff like that. So, very good news. Let's keep Elon also a little busy on the political side. He can make a big difference, and, uh, I hope that goes somewhere.

Okay, what should we do for our discussion? Let's put the SpaceX IPO dynamic on, and let's go to the comments. Let's see. Is it Iran you want to talk about? Is it SpaceX rallying and then potentially dropping? Is it Tesla lagging, lagging, lagging robo taxi? Or is it Bitcoin? Is it Ethereum? Or is it the state of German oppression and how Elon liberates everyone? Let's see here. 1977 Sith Lord says, "Hi, Joe." Hi, Sith Lord. I'm always a great appreciator of the Sith Lords. Uh, what do we have here? Should we start at the end where people Andreas Peros says, "No, we should talk about Joe having to make more jokes." Ideally got lynched by the by the crowd. I talked about this yesterday with my little funny post. I made a funny post. I said, "Tax all trillionaires because in California, I can take $550 billion from Elon and buy two homeless beds." No, no, one bed for two homeless people, and it's going to be great. And then people wanted to kill me. It's very sad. Uh, let's start at the beginning. Uh, okay. The scrolling starts again. "Not convinced it's over." LK Lab says, "Not convinced it's over." The Iran war. I think there will be. We already know Israel doesn't like it. They will probably attack Iran. They already said so. But that doesn't make it's over, right? I think Trump has totally had it. He, he, that was horrible. The experience was horrible for Trump. He has had it, and I do not think he's going to start this again, and there's a lot of things going on behind the scenes. So I think it is over. Not in the sense that there's no war anymore. Not in the sense that Israel is not going to attack Iran or Iran is going to attack Israel or something. But this has nothing to do with the United States. So I think on the United States side, it is pretty much over. David Losing says, "You're awesome. Thanks for your advice." Thank you so much, David. I think I was right on this. I was right on this. But always, I'm just a voice, one of many voices. You can listen to me and then always use your own critical thinking to assess what I'm saying, if it makes sense or not. Uh, Peter say hes says, "Looks like the US surrender to Iran and their demands." Oh, we are not allowed to say that. But to some people, it looks like that. I would say they just, you know, it was just a little bit of a squeeze. There was not much choice. And now we have peace. We shouldn't like trigger anyone. I'm gonna wait until get my salary 276. Then I'm going to buy some SpaceX. I would wait, but you do what you think. Uh, "Hi, Joe. Let's go," says Petty the Irishman. Wow, we got an Irishman. Hi, Petty the Irishman. Great to have you here. Peter Hayek, Peter Hex. "The higher SpaceX goes, the better for Tesla shares in a merger." That is debatable. We don't know. I don't want to speculate too much. We, I want the merger deal on the table to make a decision because who knows like, you know, who did I tell this today? Like I had a good call today with an investor, a Pioneer Bonds investor, and we had a discussion about the whole thing. And I'm, you know, that Rebellionaire says no to the merger, and Alexander Mertz says yes to the merger, and they're gearing up for a big battle drama between the Tesla influencers, Rebellionaire on one side saying no way, and Alexander Mer says no way to say no way. So maybe I jump in the middle of that and be the wise man because I'm saying we don't even have a deal on the table. I, I'm neutral. I love SpaceX. I love Tesla. I have Tesla shares. I don't have SpaceX shares. I don't want to get screwed over, obviously, but I don't think I will be screwed over. But why would I even talk about it as long as we don't have a deal on the table? Let's see what the deal is. And if you don't like it, there will be resistance. "Joe, all Tesla investors," says David Dale, Daleofski. "Joe, all Tesla investors are getting tired of this consolidation. Every other stock pumped so hard the last few years and the last few weeks." Don't forget the last few weeks. Um, I agree it's tiring, but let's see. I, I think we have to trade Tesla the way it goes. By the way, Nvidia, my second largest holding, up nicely today. Also very predictable. I, I told you guys Nvidia is ab the most undervalued stock ever. This is ridiculous. By the way, I should do an Nvidia video at some point. Nvidia is literally the most undervalued stock I've ever seen. This is ridiculous. Uh, "Hey man, last week you said you were going to take time to answer the questions that are marked next on Pine Lens. What's the status?" Nice shirt. Thank you. Let's go to That's a good point. I do this on Sundays to answer the questions, but we can quickly check out Pine Lens. Pine is in such a giant overhaul that I'm a little right now distracted. But don't, don't despair. I think this week we get it all totally sorted out. Let's see what we have here. I think we already answered this. How can I even mark this? Uh, "How will Elon's incentives affect?" We got this. "Do you have a specific question, Roy?" I think your energy stocks we already responded to. Uh, let's see what we have here. We got Roy. Where are all the other questions? We have six in the pipeline. Do we have more here from Roy? No, I don't want the archived. [clears throat] Well, I will, I will check it out. Oh, PEI, by the way, Peggy got reinstated. Very important. We fought for Peggy. That was a real civil rights act moment in history. Bigger than the Civil Rights Acts, much bigger. And we got, uh, Py back on YouTube. As you know, Py got banned for no good reason because there was a crypto scam he was falling for and he was sharing it on the live stream and then said, "Oh, there's a crypto scam." And, uh, now YouTube actually reinstated Peggy after all of you guys and I and everyone and CERN and everyone spoke up and, uh, you know, Nick Gibbs and Tesla Boomer and me, of course, and Faz Fazad and CERN Basher and of course Herbert Futurazza, Next Big Future, Randy Kirk, Tesla Jigsaw, um, P Bisel, Micro to Macro. Everyone spoke up and YouTube finally, finally listened, even though they rejected it multiple times, but now they listen to the all the outrage and actually reinstalled Py. I don't know who watches Py. PY is a great channel. I'm sometimes on there, Tesla influencer. He's actually in Kuwait, so he can report on the ground what's happening with Iran. But for me, that was very important because PY did never have any strikes, and then YouTube just took down his channel without warning, just because he shared a SpaceX IPO live stream that turned out to be a scam, like an AI generated crypto scam, but no one knew that, and YouTube had that stream all over YouTube. So, very unfair, very shocking if you lose your entire years of work. And so I'm very glad that YouTube actually listened. I wrote them a little, uh, X post too and said, "Thank you, YouTube, for actually listening here." And that was a very good, it was very good news. So this is just important for all of us because, you know, if you connect these dots, X is a very important platform. It all happened on X, by the way, not on YouTube. So we tagged YouTube, everyone spoke up, and finally YouTube listened. This is just one great example. The other example is the ZDF, which I just talked about, the German politics scandal, where a lot of people tagged Elon. I think I was the first, but a lot of people tagged Elon, and now Elon is suing these mofos. So what does it mean? It means we have a voice now. If you get your message to a YouTuber, for example, to me, or to someone on X, I see the message as an important message that is important for a lot of people. I share it, other people share it. It can reach Elon in no time. It reaches the stupid German chancellor, maybe. Well, he's not listening, but then Elon sues him. It reaches the White House. We have actually a voice if we know, if we pick an important topic that actually matters, and we get our voices out. That is a very important shift in the power dynamic between the people and those in power. And I think that's very important, and PEG is just one example because getting YouTube to actually take back something like that after they rejected it twice is kind of a big achievement. YouTube is a major, major, major thing. So, uh, Roy, I'm going to look into that. Uh, we will have an overhaul of the platform, so we will find your question. Uh, "YouTube is run by left tarts." Pedi was unfairly attacked. Yes, we know that. But still, you know, we can complain and attack them, but at the same time, we are dependent on YouTube. So, we have to collaborate, and it's good that they actually listened. So, that's all that counts for me. "When you predict semi will have an impact spare time." It's a good question because I think when we go back to Tesla stock, I think Tesla has a lot of things going on for it that are actually very powerful for Tesla's core business. Even though semi is not core business, semi is also going to be robot trucking, which is huge. But the sales are rebounding. Energy will look great. Solar will be exploding. And of course, semi is coming. So I think we have a lot of tailwinds also to the core business of Tesla, which we will see a big recovery in my opinion, independent of robo taxi. I do think robo taxi is the big story here. But the fact that the core business is rebounding and we see semi probably becoming really important the second half of this year, probably by end of the year, will show up really in the earnings, and I think by next year will become a robot trucking thing, which is enormous. So, that's a good question because I think we have some tailwinds. Uh, E LJ JQ8 OG says, "Hit the like button." Yes, hit the like button. "Joe, your expose was hilarious." [laughter] Thank you. I will get lynched for it, but it was great. "I'm making a mistake buying some Nvidia." No, now you're definitely not making a mistake on Nvidia. Nvidia is a joke undervalued thing. It's like the best deal ever. I'm pretty loaded up on Nvidia. I'm much more loaded up on Tesla, but when do I sell all my talent here and dump it into Tesla? Well, this is complex. This is a complex question, uh, that is difficult to answer. "Where's Palent 134?" I'm not a Palente expert. I'm a little skeptical on Palanteer on the ethics side. I think it's a strong stock. I think the concerns that on just the factual business side that Palanteer will be threatened by Anthropic and the AI companies is overblown. I think David K is correct to push back on that and say, "Dudes, have you ever seen our business? What we actually do? This is very specialized enterprise, and you can't just easily kick us out." Also, Palanteer is sufficiently smart to actually embrace the AI dynamics. So, I think Palanteer will be fine, but Palanteer is a little richly valued. And I do think Tesla is setting up for a huge transformation. I think the odds that Tesla is above 800, end of the year, above 700, let's say, uh, higher than not, assuming there's not a merger that messes everything up, all the calculations. So, uh, that means Tesla roughly doubles. Can Palentia double? Oo, difficult to see that. Bilis says, "Aren't you glad you pay GZ? Feels great to pay for disinformation." Yeah, you guys. I don't even want to go into this German madness. So you're being forced. I don't even know what guet means. What means gadet? Some stupid abbreviation for some government, or you have to pay €18 a month as a German citizen, and you're being forced to pay that for disinformation. It's like the ultimate humiliation. You have to give them money to put up this giant media system to literally brainwash you and lie until the lies come out of your ears and eyes. It's very sad, and I hope this ends very soon. "What's your take on the kerosene shortages in Europe that will kick in next month? Aircraft can take off. Transport will stop." I'm not concerned, Roy, because the war is over. So, it's never about the actual damage done at any given point. It's always about the outlook. Once it's over, it's over. It doesn't matter if there's a lag and for a month we have a problem because it's all anticipation of the future. So, but Roy, to your point, that is why it's so crucial and important that the war is over and why I predicted the war has to be over because Trump, if there was ever a president who deeply understands these things, it's Trump. If there was ever a president surrounded by oil people and economics people, it's Trump. So, they have absolute transparency into this problem, and they understand if the war doesn't end at the point in time where it hits Europe, it's all hell breaks loose. And that hell would have broken loose in July. But if it hits Europe lagging, hits Europe on kerosene, for example, or in liquid, liquid natural gas, but the war is over, it doesn't matter because it's just a little crisis, and everyone knows it's over. So, uh, LJ QA 8 OG, that's a very difficult name, by the way. I should find a shorter name for you. 8 OG, I call you 8 OG says, "German media sounds like American mainstream media too." Well, there's some difference. I tell you, I know both very well. And the difference is in America, the mainstream media is not that bad because you have the New York Times and CNN, all this crap on one side, and MSNBC. And then you have Fox News on the other side. And then you have a very big independent media power, right? From Tucker Carlson to Joe Rogan to Tu Vaugh and all these people to Breaking Points, great show. So, you know, it feels different in America because of course you have some lun lunatics at MSNBC, but they're also officially like they're wearing their lunatic head with pride. Literally with pride. And you know, it's like, yeah, it feels bad as an American that you have these little liars on TV, but I mean, it's just they are just one of many. Maybe the New York Times feels a little bit like the German, but in Germany, it's much more overwhelming. They're literally, this is a very big operation in in Germany, this whole central. Oh my god, can't make this up. Yes, I remember. I forgot about that. So, the fee collection central sounds already dystopian. Uh, Roy says, "Yes, agree with that take. Let's hope Netanyahu doesn't disrupt the deal." Well, he's going to try, but the point is Netanyahu might not be able to disrupt it anymore because even if he starts another war, does it disrupt the deal? Probably not, because the US might disconnect. "Joe, what do you think of the FSD update 14.3.4?" I covered this yesterday. I think it's pretty amazing, and we got very good news on the FSD update. I think it's very, very powerful. That's what I think. "Doesn't a December call look pretty good?" So, DD2DL, my concerns about all these calls on Tesla is I'm still a little scared. What happens in the case of a merger if you have out of the money calls? What happens? You have to rely that it's getting converted into the new entity. Very complicated math. "SpaceX up 43% since IPO is pretty wild." Billis, I agree. I probably would bet this going up more based on the mechanics I explained because it has to go up more because no one can sell and everyone has to buy. But that's not the best way of investing because the crash is inevitable at this point. "If Elon wins a compensation in this case will use it to raise their monthly steel to 20." I mean, yeah, it's very ironic, but believe me, Lars Milo, these things matter because the the delegit legitimization of the German ruling class is in full swing. These people get delegitimized, and R also gets delegitimized. And this Elon lawsuit is high-profile and is very good. I know they're going to raise the fees, but, uh, they will get punished. Justice is coming. I can tell you from the outside, the justice, justice is coming back to Germany. "Will Europe ever have energy independence? Fuel and electricity are still expensive. I'm in Czech Republic." Uh, no, impossible. They can't get it. Uh, the, I don't want to get too geostrategic here, but I think the only way for Europe is to actually have a peace deal with Russia. It's the only way. And this is probably very complicated to make sure that Russia doesn't do stupid things. But I, I think if there would be a peace relationship with Russia, it's, it's geostrategically the only option and the most viable option because Russia has all the energy, Europe has all the other stuff. It's a perfect relationship, but the antagonizing on both sides has to stop. "Obviously caught back to back live shows." Leonardo, you made it. You asked yesterday. I didn't know that I'm doing a live show today, but the editor was a little late, so I decided live show. "If Musk meets his Tesla goals, will he be worth two trillion?" Uh, of course, easy. You mean all the goals. You will be worth much more than two trillion. You will be worth like five trillion. "Please fix your damn volume." I, the volume is actually not the problem. I got feedback from a lot of people that my volume is fine. So, it seems to be a YouTube problem that some people just have bad volume for some reason, but others don't. So, I can't do anything about it. "So disappointed that Tesla was lukewarm today." Well, 411. I take it. And I mean, nothing happens like, yeah, Tesla totally underperformed obviously today. "Can we expect another dip in the market if the ceasefire breaks?" I think so. And this is a reoccurring thing with these temporary ceasefires. I think this time it's a little more serious because the stakes are too high. "The pioneers appreciate the live shows." Leonardo. I appreciate the pioneers. We have so much coming up. I'm very excited for June. I think we can pull it off by next week. We have Pioneer Lens Daily, up the updated version, and will blow your minds. It's going to be so good. "Should I invest in Tesla or SpaceX now? I have 53 in Tesla and six in SpaceX." I, I am staying out of SpaceX for now. I think there will be a huge opportunity in the not-so-distant future to load up like crazy on SpaceX. I think 2026 is the year of Tesla, and I think the end of 2026 will be bad for SpaceX for completely mechanical reasons. If I'm wrong on this, I would be very surprised. It would just be a testament if SpaceX doesn't crash. It would be a testament to overwhelming propaganda firepower or overwhelming rabbit out of the head firepower because for SpaceX to not drop a lot from here, first it will go up more. But after all this buying pressure is gone, the selling pressure kicks in in July. In order for SpaceX to not drop like a stone, they would have to pull a lot of rabbits out of the hat, and they would have to pull them out of the hat in a very continuous fashion all the way up to the AI satellites end of next year. And I don't see how they can do that. They can't announce many more compute deals because their compute is at some point sold out, right? It was amazing deals, Anthropic and Google, but they can't keep doing that because they don't, don't have enough compute to do that. They can build more compute, but that takes time. Maybe they pull some rabbit out of their hat and double their compute surprisingly by end of the year or something. Sure, then they can pull two more of these deals out, but this is not enough. That's like 20 billion a year. Not enough for a $2.2 trillion company. So, I just see no way this for this to happen. You know, even if Staling performs perfectly, they pull one more compute rabbit out of the hat and sell it, do another 20 billion. This is all not enough. It's not enough. And the big thing that will be enough, the AI satellites, they can't accelerate the AI satellites to the first half of next year. It's just impossible, even for them. And that means a crash. I'm just so convinced that it's true. And once the crash is here and everyone will lose faith and we see it at 100 or 80 or whatever, then it's time to buy because SpaceX will be the largest company on Earth and in the galaxy very soon. "It seems 2027 will be the year of Tesla," says Alpha James, "with the revenue and profit lines being impacted by Robo Taxi." I think it's 2026 because it will be 2026 because the market is never going to wait for financial results. Once the financial results are trickling in on an exponential trajectory, which I am very convinced will happen this year, they will just pull forward the whole repricing, and then it will be more flat in 2027. Right? If you go to a,000 or 800 this year, it's not going to rise much in the first half of next year. It will fall and then go sideways and so on. They try to accelerate it. Uh, 8 OG says, "If Israel's neighbors did not attack Israel, then they will not have to attack them." Oh yeah, these are Israel discussions. They can all attack each other all the time. Yes. "Leonardo, are you going to purchase Anthropic?" No. I have to do a whole show on the AI situation. I love the AI situation because we are also building the drought near system. By the way, I tell you, Pine Lens is getting so hot. We have the Dropne system. You should, you can already try to use Dropne. Drop will be, this is our own agentic system where we use all kinds of Oh, you see my secret work here. I don't want to show you my secret work. Uh, okay. No secret work for you, but you can click on this button here and you get to your own drought near on Pioneer Lands. And if you're a citizen, you can already use it. You get free tokens, and it's much more powerful, much more powerful than Claude or OpenAI because this is an agentic system out of the box, agentic system that does everything for you. So you should test Drop me out. But I have my whole, uh, theory about what's going to happen with Anthropic and OpenAI, and it's not too bullish. It's extremely bullish on AI, but not on these two. "Space is going to break 200 today." Is it? No. Can't do it anymore. You mean aftermarket? Where are we? Uh, SpaceX 194. I think it's going to go up more, but it's really too high. Um, "I'm hold SpaceX and use a put when it's going down." Well, it's very expensive to buy puts. I'm only short puts. I never, uh, "If Tesla goes to 700, 800, it would be probably prompt a stock split." Yes, but that doesn't matter. Uh, "Giants among men, should I invest in Tesla or SpaceX now?" Well, we already had that. "Hello from Belgium. French part." No, my French is so bad. Uh, "What does it mean? What means hello again? Not that means goodbye. Hello." "May your cyber cap massive expansion come out ASAP." I hope so. Steve M said, "SpaceX will reach 1 trillion revenue by 2030." You can't take his predictions serious anymore. 1 trillion 2030. Yeah, probably not. "Is it bullish on Alphabet Gemini?" No, I hate Google too much. I'm not bullish on. I'm bullish on drought. I'm bullish on SpaceX. I'm bullish on Grok in combination or conjunction with cursor. Bonjour. I'm so bad. I have to learn more French. Bonjour. Uh, Frost says, "The trades you do publicly on Tesla to generate alpha, are they the same trades you do in Pioneer Alpha?" Yes, pretty much. "Belgium just scored." So that's why Belgians have shown up. [laughter] [snorts] Very good. "Germany crushed these people from what?" Kurasawa. I didn't even know that's a country. I don't know if you guys are into the World Cup, but Kurasa is now officially as bad as Brazil got beat by Germany 17. "Tesla is scaling cyber cab robo taxi this summer. They will not scale into the winter months due to more challenging weather." I'm not sure about the second part, but yeah, I believe they will scale now. I believe this is the summer where they will scale. "Joe, why do you think Tesla is being so slow with robo taxi? I just don't understand." I think look at the FSD reporting. I think the new version is a game changer. 14.3, but when you look at the reviews, 14.3.3.3 even wasn't like, you know, it had some issues here and there. Now 14.3.4 really seems to be a huge leap. So there are still some little issues, but you see the deployment speed of Cyber Cap all across Texas and Nevada. I think we are getting there, and I think Tesla sees the light at the end of the tunnel now. And that's why they are scaling and deploying these things all over the place. I don't think they're ready yet, but they will be ready within days or weeks. I think that's what's happening right now. Okay, what do we have here? "Two German national players praying with Kurasawo, guys." Young German spread hope with voting and Christianity. Yeah, I don't want to make it sound too rosy, but yeah, maybe there's hope. Um, "I see very old clips of Musk. He has been working forever." That is true. "Hello, Joe. Love your political and financial honesty. Integrity is everything." Thanks, Bray. Braman Briman. Yeah, I'm, I'm not

Doing like, you know, I'm not your typical YouTuber. I'm, you know, I'm mostly doing my own stock investing now institutionally with Pioneer Reserve and Pioneer Alpha and the Pioneer Bonds. You can go to pioneeralpha.org, by the way, if you want to learn more about that. But we institutionalize this, so I'm doing this mostly for fun, connect with you guys, and sharing my opinion.

For me, it's also about fine-tuning my predictive abilities. That's why I'm very honest and clear, because it's, you know, I believe that's what the pioneers have to do. We have to get very good in understanding and predicting reality and hold ourselves accountable, because I'm not doing this to impress people. I'm doing this to be the best, to become the best. And you can only become the best in predicting the future if you predict the future and do it publicly, and then assess ruthlessly when you were right and when you were wrong.

Like in Iran, I was right in first principles. I was wrong on the tactical timing, and I was wrong to predict that Trump is going to pull a taco quickly, because he didn't. But there was reasons why I believed that. And I think these reasons were very well valid. And so now we know what happened.

Bri Briman, should I invest in Tesla? Giants among man.

I already said I would not buy more SpaceX right now. Or, if you want to be super tactical, you can buy it right now and then you have to jump ship at some point soon.

If there's a Tesla split, it means we can do more contracts with same amount of money. I guess the value per contract drops. All the splits you can always forget, because they don't change anything. If they split one to two or one to three or whatever, everything stays the same in terms of how much money you get with what margin. You just double the amount of shares and buy them at half the price. Same with the premiums and options. So, I totally ignore splits. They make no difference, only that they lead normally to some more buying short term.

Leonardo says, "I tried to hail a Tesla robo taxi in Bay Area this weekend and it was high volume demand all day. Do you believe as I do that this is a sign of the popularity of a safer and cheaper choice for transport?"

Leonardo, I think they will never have a demand problem. It's always a supply problem, because everyone loves this stuff. Everyone wants to have robo taxis, and the most important thing is, it's going to be cheap. Going to be much cheaper.

Bri Bryman. I pronounced it perfect. I don't think so. Braan Bra Aimmon Bron, splits are great at giving people heart attacks if their brokers don't properly display them on day one. I agree. [laughter] [snorts] Yeah, it's great to great way to have a heart attack.

Which company do you think will give a better return in the next decade, Tesla or SpaceX? That's if they don't merge. That's a very tricky question. I didn't even look at the exact math. In the next decade, that's extremely difficult to say. I can't answer that question.

If you ask me in the next 15 years, it will be without a doubt SpaceX. In the next decade, in the next five years, very likely Tesla. So, uh, Tesla is just now at the inflection point, but SpaceX will be ridiculous. Once we have AI satellites up, and once that business model works, and once Starship really works, that business will be absolutely ridiculous. And I think it will kick off in earnest in 2028 and then 2029, and then scale like crazy. But Robo Taxi and then Optimus will kick in too. And so, robo taxi will make Tesla an enormous company in the next five years.

Dirty Tesla was ecstatic about the new release. I, I know, uh, RW Hirs, everyone was very ecstatic about the new release, and people were also critical people. So yes, I think 14.3.4 is a very interesting release. I think it says something.

So I tell you guys, some people say, "Joe, you shouldn't be so confident because it's end of June. Your prediction was wrong this time." No, I don't think so. I really believe we have a local probability maximum over the next 15 days that something is going to happen. I have to be a little cautious because I got burned in the first two weeks of this month with being too leveraged, because you know what happened? It was pretty bad. So I had to reshuffle a lot. Gave me a heart attack nearly.

But that makes a good investor and alpha chaser. You have to get over your little issues and get right back into the game, because I think it could be very hot. Be cautious. There can always be bad surprises, but there is really a condensed convergence of probability boosting trajectories in the next 15 days here for many reasons.

Andy says, "Hi Joe, any concerns about cyber cap taking longer to deploy due to you needing human driving miles and retrofit FSD to the CC form factor?"

I mean, this is a big debate. I honestly I do think it's overrated, this debate, because if you're Tesla, you're not stupid. If you have Model Y platform, I think you will do everything in your freaking power, obviously, to build a cybercap platform in a way that needs only absolutely marginal fine-tunings for FSD. Like, you're not going to build a cybercap platform that installs the cameras in completely different ways. So you have to retrain the entire system. You're not stupid. I mean, this is the only focus of Tesla. So I don't think so.

Um, exactly 17777 Claude Chatty Gemini Gro, from best to worst in terms of winners in the next 20, oh my god, 20 years. I mean, who the hell knows what? Let's say the next five years.

Um, I think Grock is a surprise winner. I think Grock is underrated. Not because Grock is great right now; I think Grock sucks a little bit. But I do think people do not understand the absolute surprise potential of Grock of the Trinity. Grock as a good and solid LLM, compute power number one in the world. And number three, the magic ingredient is Cursor. Cursor is the world's best harness. And the harness is more important than the LLM. And Cursor right now is the most installed system in enterprise, more than Anthropic. People forget about that. And Cursor right now uses Kimmy, of all things. That is the LLM. So the combination of Cursor with SpaceX's compute and Grock, I think, is a winner. That's what I think. That's why I'm not bullish on Anthropic as a stock.

I have almost 600 shares in Tesla, but they are in the UK in ISA and SIP. I don't see how I can become a credit investor.

So, Braman, we should like investigate what these retirement accounts in the UK say about Pioneer Bonds. Uh, I have to actually do some research on that how this works, uh, if you guys can somehow invest directly in private, uh, investments through the retirement accounts, because in the United States that's possible through a self-directed Roth or IIA, and we have that on the website for Americans. But for the UK, I have to look into that if that's possible.

Bree Man, Breeman, South African barbecue man. Oh, I have to look into that. Bree Man. I love Bree Man. That sounds cool.

Uh, I want Elon to take it slow on robot taxi. Too much Elon duration syndrome and media waiting to amplify any robot taxi challenges.

Well, I want him to move when this the time is to move. I think this is pretty good. RW Hir, is "intelligent" the right word for these LLMs? They still can reliably image someone with their left hand up. Doesn't seem intelligent to me. I think some of them can. I don't know. We have to test the latest. Uh, that's a long story. I have my own theory on what these LLMs are, what the harnesses do, and how intelligence actually works. So, I think they are, they are the atom of intelligence.

What are your thoughts about the fable export ban move? Also, Roy, great question. That's a long story. I might do a video on this this week. This justifies a video. What is going on fable ban and the whole situation? It's a very interesting situation.

About to move my portfolio from Germany to Belgium to not pay the German taxes. Bad timing with Tesla going up now. I mean, just make sure you don't have too much of a lag. You should normally be able to move that quickly. Depends on your accounts, but that shouldn't take more than maximum four days if you have an inind transfer.

Mark Cave, "Why do you use Google Finance, Joe, if you hate them?" Well, yeah. "Why do you hate them? Big fan of your material, by the way. Just curious."

I just hate Google. I think they are a horrible and evil company. Super evil. Um, but um, I use Gmail and I look use Google Finance because they're so good. Just because I hate someone doesn't mean they have bad products. It just means I don't like them ethically.

I think you and James should do more together. James is great. We had one show. I will ping James. We should do more. I agree.

"I'm so cautious with my trades that I haven't lost dollars, but I also haven't had a moonshot. I need your mind and confidence, Joe. That's what I watch you. I watch your show," says Andreas.

Yeah, I mean, there is actually, I have to tell you one story to wrap it up, of all people. I know everyone hates him. I think he's evil, by the way: George Soros. But people forget that George Soros is a very, very good trader. Very unethical, of course, but he's a very good trader. And there's this one story about George Soros which you is important. He basically had this young trader who worked for his hedge fund, and the young trader identified a, they, the young trader identified a great trade and said, "George, I have this great trade. I'm going to do it. Here's my conviction, here's my percentages, here's my exits, blah blah blah." And then George looked at him and like, "Okay, fine, a very good trade. How how much are you going to put in?" And he said, "2% of my total, right? Because I have high confidence." And then George said, "The trade you have there is not a 2% trade. It's a 20% trade."

And so what we can learn from that is it's not just about being good in predicting stuff and good in technical trading and fundamental, all that stuff. You also have to be good at like applying the right weight. Some you have to get this sense for: is this hot, is it not hot, and have the probabilities right, and then size your position according to your confidence. And if you manage that, you will get very rich. That is like, you have to know when it's time to go all in, and you have to know when it's not time to go all in. Of course, if you do it wrong, you're broke. So it's very dangerous.

Uh, hit the like button. Yes, do it.

That 60 billion Cursor deal is essentially just Musk buying big boy call options. Yes, exactly. 10 billion dollar call option.

"Joe, we need you to referee a debate between Tesla Boomer Mama and the bald guy from Rebillionaire." Yes, I will. I'm actually working on this. I will do it. I will comment on this whole thing and maybe even do a debate.

Uh, Or Bumik, "I saw you in Copenhagen Saturday at Pokemon Go Fest." That's funny. I actually went there. I had no idea about Pokemon Go Fest. I was in Copenhagen walking around, and I saw all these people, and I was like, "What is that in this beautiful park?" I walked there and checked it out. Was a Pokemon Go Fest. Can you believe it? All the Pokemon fans, I was very fascinated, so I walked through it. That's so funny, Oranji, that you saw me.

Andreas says, "Love that."

SIP is a self-investment pension. ISO. Oh, that's good. ISA is a self-investment platform in the UK, savings platform that allows you to invest with post tax money, but there are after no tax on selling the assets. So you can, so Briman, Briman, I now I don't know, um, so you can just invest privately, kind of. Is it like a checkbook, or do you instruct your custodian to put it into any investment you want? How does it work? You should buy Pioneer Bonds then. I shouldn't say you should. You could.

Politically incorrect, as you, you're big on AI, but I never hear you talk about memory. Well, I was very big on memory on FU, but I always said like, I'm not sure on the valuation. But yeah, memory is enormous, especially Micron Technologies, because they're US-based. That was very clear for a long time. They are sub 10P with tripledigit growth rates because it has history of being cyclical, but HPM has changed that. I totally agree. I just couldn't do the valuation work yet. Uh, I absolutely agree that they got hammered because they're cyclical, but they're not cyclical anymore. This is an endless boom, and we have to look at the price earnings ratios, but I can't believe there's still sub 10P. So, very interesting. Yes.

"Builders foresight." That sounds like a pioneer. "Builder's foresight. I'm new here and love your stuff. Thank you."

Micron up 11%. I know. I mean, Micron, I always had Micron on the agenda. I never got to the valuation. But yeah, Micron strategically is super hot. It was always hot. I said it a year ago, "Look at Micron." Yeah, I am bullish strategically on Micron. You just have to check the valuations more in depth.

Okay guys, time to wrap it up. It's already late. Good day in the markets. Tesla lagging, but I'm fine with it. I made a lot of money. I'm fine. I shouldn't be complaining on these days.

Uh, I'm positioned in Tesla in a way where if it goes up like this, I have maximum alpha. If it goes up $40 in one day, I don't have much alpha right now because I have too much short puts on a lot of puts at the money. So, ideally, Tesla just goes up 10 bucks in a week. That's my absolute maximum alpha generator.

Bri Briman says, "I want to buy Pioneer bonds but not available on H Graves Landstone." Yeah, Pioneer bonds are not yet publicly traded. Maybe end of the year. So, they are still private investments with the ceasefire holding.

"Of course, the possibility of your projection for Tesla price at the end of June is very high. Your mindset mentality is starting to stick to my critical thinking. Thanks, Leonardo."

Always train your critical thinking. I'm just one angle. I just provide you some patterns of my critical thinking, but you can digest it and then see.

Petty Irishman is also ready to go to bed. I see it.

Okay, guys. Then, everyone in Europe ready to go to bed. Everyone in Australia ready for breakfast. No, it's already noon there. Everyone in California ready for a little hike at the Pacific Ocean. And uh, or for a walk, maybe it's Monday. Um, everyone in Austin, take a robo taxi. Everyone on the East Coast, uh, what is it? Afternoon time for a drink, I guess. So, good to see you guys, and we continue tomorrow. Stay put.