Transcription
Hello everyone. Well, I hope you had a good weekend. Bitcoin is at 89753 dollars. We're going to do a quick global analysis, revisit the on-chain technical analysis part, the events to watch out for this week, and then the configuration, the technical configuration, meaning not just graphical but the one that includes all our indicators, to see where we stand and if we have good prospects or not for this week. Will it be necessary to think about repositioning or not? Well, so, I'm spoiling it a bit for you because I've been looking at the screens for some time now. I find the configuration to be fragile. I think that currently, well, we have only just begun the correction and retracement phase of this rebound. We were likely in a rebound within a downtrend. If we put on the tunnels, you see that we had come back to test. Well, it's an indicator I rarely show, but these are simply moving averages. If we can simply choose to mark the moving averages, there, we'll put them here. You see for example, even just this one, I don't know in terms of moving average, this one is the 50-period moving average. So here, we are on the SMA 50. If we look at the MA50, there, we'll look at it together. What does it show? Well, you see, just a bit lower. We haven't tested this EMA. We are still in a downtrend in the short, in the short to medium term, let's say, since the break of these levels around 116,000 when we broke these levels at the end of October. Well, we entered a trend that is more bearish. I mentioned it many times. In these phases, in strong corrective phases, the probability of a V bottom is very, very low. So, well, once again, the probabilities are rather on our side. That is to say, we haven't had the exception that proves the rule, but we have had what we expected, which is a structure that takes time. You see, we set our local low on November 21st, that's almost a month ago, and since then, we've had a nice rebound. We've gained a good performance between 80 and 95. That's a 17% increase, which is pretty good. Now, we are still really, really chased by this trendline that is causing us trouble, that is pressing on Bitcoin's configuration and pushing it much lower. And I honestly think that given the configuration, given the liquidity that lies just below the price, you see here, we have liquidity between 87 and 85,000 which is quite obvious to go and get. You see that it's also recharging. So here, we have bottom buyers who are present. So, well, I think we'll have to punish them. 87 and 85,000 would bring us to about here. And obviously, I don't see how this level could hold. Okay? For me, this level is destined to be broken, okay, probably in the next 7 weeks, because you know that with Bitcoin, I always say in the next few days or weeks, and it always happens in the next few hours, because Bitcoin is very volatile, so it's also quite pleasant when you analyze this asset because, well, you don't have to wait days and weeks to confirm a bias or a trend or something; decisions are made quickly and then you're quickly set. So here, we will probably reach this zone, okay? Which, in my opinion, will be a truly interesting zone to potentially find buying opportunities, okay? Because we will be in the construction of the famous bottom. Okay? If we say that a bottom is the construction over several weeks, several months of a range with a well-defined lower and upper bound, well, here we have the lower bound, okay? And here, we have the upper bound. So we had, we had the luxury, so to speak, of exiting at the upper bound and doing this b rather cleanly around 93,000. So we were able to protect ourselves from a significant drop. Honestly, at the low point, we were down 6%. The altcoins started to bleed a bit. Well, there's a small rebound now, but, but well, we have altcoins that are stabilizing, okay, and others that are struggling more. For example, yes, Nexo, I think it was doing well. Even, for example, well, it's starting to drop. It's probably a crypto that we'll need to reconsider. Well, anyway, we'll ask ourselves these questions if we're looking to find buying opportunities. For now, it's not a time, it's not a zone where I would be vigilant about altcoins because they will obviously be correlated to Bitcoin, especially in these phases, whether it's ranging or a downtrend. So, it's more in the rebound phases in an uptrend, especially if we look at the altcoin dominance, okay? The dominance of other cryptocurrencies, which shows us here a return to a major support zone at 6.8% dominance. You see that we are not far from a breakdown. So that's why we need to be vigilant. That's why we need to be vigilant because on many indicators, we are on the verge of a breakdown. If I look at the crypto total, for example, if we take it over the long term, so here I'm on an arithmetic scale and not a logarithmic one. And you see here, we have a strong trendline that has driven us since October 2023, since these three major bullish impulses. Each time, we come back to test this trendline. The two previous times, it served as major support levels. Will it serve as a support level again? Maybe. Honestly, I don't know. But once again, we are close to a breakdown. So here, probably, given Bitcoin's technical configurations, we would have a return here, if Bitcoin comes back to test 80,000 and decides to set a bottom, well, that could be something we could have. Well, we could have something like this, okay? And in that case, we would need to try to find buying opportunities at that time. And otherwise, well, if we have a real bearish breakdown, there, with something like this, well, then obviously, we'll have to be very cautious, and that's why before pressing the buy button again, we'll have to ask ourselves the right questions. So we're not there yet. We're not there at all yet because, well, once again, the flows I'm looking at are not present at the moment. We'll do a quick overview, but whether it's on the traditional finance side, well, there's no trend. So, there's no trend. That also means there's no massive selling trend, whether on Bitcoin or on others, on BlackRock or on others. Here, you see, well, anyway, for me it's mainly BlackRock, but you see that anyway the UM here, so the number of Bitcoins held by these spot Bitcoin ETF issuers, you see that they have had very little pullback in their history. So, we had phases of pullback here between February and March. Okay? So, we had a small pullback here, a small pullback. We had stagnation here during March-April, also here between July and September. Well, we have one now too, that is, between the beginning of December and now. You see that for a long time here, for 3 weeks, there's no real trend. This is also visible on Glassnode. I don't know where it is anymore. It's our indicator. Well, we'll look at all of that anyway. Afterwards, yes, here it is, on the ETF flows. Well, you see here, it's very stagnant. There are small recoveries from time to time, exits from time to time. Well, there's not much to observe yet. I'm probably waiting for a return to the lower bound of our range to potentially find stronger buying levels and maybe we could be in something like this. Okay? So you see here, we had our famous rebound, okay, a bit prolonged. There, the trendline. We stayed along the trendline for a while. There, there. And here, we had truly found our level that had caused Bitcoin to switch to a recovery and a reversal. So, well, what I'm expecting is probably a movement like this. Okay? So we'll see where it takes us on Bitcoin currently. That is, will we have to go and test the zone between the two support levels I'm showing, that is, this low point at 77,000 and this one at 80,000? Will we have something like this? There, there, there. And then we'll have to find buying opportunities between 77,000 and 80,000. Well, we'll ask ourselves that question in due course. Once again, some people ask me, some of you are curious to know what I imagine for the future, for long-term cycles, etc. It's very, very complicated because here, we are quite close to a tipping point because we've had many technical and graphical indicators that have told us, well, there's probably a major trend exhaustion. This happens in areas where traditionally it's rather the beginning of a bear market. So if we switch to a bear market, okay, it means that for probably several months, we'll have a decline because, as I told you, the objective is very clear. The objective is this blue line here, which represents the realized cost for long-term holders and which is at $40,000. So basically, if we are in a bear market, the tipping point is here at 40,000. So if we enter a bear market phase, months and months will pass before we set a bottom. Probably here, I don't know. So probably during the month, I don't know, during the summer of 2026, maybe. Which means we would have had something like, well, 9 months of decline, which would bring us to about 40,000. You see 40,000 here, maybe in April. So it's possible to have something like this. We are a bit at the last moments where we risk being fixed because if we have a real breakdown and no return of buyers, well, then indeed, we might have to wait a bit longer. But we could very well be in a configuration that is, well, similar to this one. Okay. Similar to this one as well. It had been a correction, a very long and grueling ranging phase in 2024, between March and October. So, it's entirely possible to have something like this or to have something, well, like we had here, that is, a real phase where we will stagnate, we will struggle to find buyers, and then create a second leg that will perhaps take us higher, perhaps to the same levels as the previous ATH, and which would give us a performance of, well, you see, 50% increase on Bitcoin, so maybe x2, x3 on some altcoins. So we need to be cautious, but we also don't necessarily have to throw everything away now and give up everything because, well, it's entirely possible to have a correction. The principle of corrections is to make everyone panic and make you doubt about bear market, not bear market, etc. And this is not a new feeling, calling for a bear market. Here, it was already a bear market for many. We had reached the $100,000 level. Well, the objective was reached. Okay. Here, we were perhaps talking about a cycle that wouldn't happen, etc. Well, ultimately, we had it. So, well, it's normal to have doubts in these phases. We have a Fear & Greed index at 16%, which is again very low. This is lasting, lasting, lasting. This sentiment of panic has been going on for a very long time now. There's no awakening. And consequently, well, it leads to, well, you see here, people are in Christmas gifts, Black Friday, and in their year-end period, their holiday season. There's no one left anymore, anyway. This is visible in the views on YouTube, and it's visible in market interest. You see that there's no more volume on any crypto, etc. It's very difficult. So it's necessarily a real problem because if you have no new entrants, if the ETFs stagnate, and if the whales do nothing and tend to sell, you'll see here, well, a chart with what whales own, the holdings of whales. So you see here that the curve is very, very bearish. So here, whales are rather in the process of unloading. Okay? Well, it's visible anyway, you don't need to be a financial market expert to realize it. You see that Bitcoin isn't holding, that the rebounds are weak, that the RSI is still below the neutral zone. Well, you see here, this tends to accentuate the downward phase. Whales are unloading. So, well, we might have to wait a bit longer before finding buying opportunities. Well, the last time we had so many selling levels was here. So that wasn't a very good sign because we were at top levels. Okay. So it's still not an excessively good sign. It means we might have room to go much lower. Honestly, honestly, I am very, very cautious right now, and that's why I will be very, very cautious in how I re-enter later. Some of you may be wondering about the bear market strategy and potentially, well, indeed, if you're not in a hurry and, well, what can be defended would be to start earning. Okay? You have platforms like Nexo, for example, which we talk about regularly, whose token has a good configuration, but Nexo is a centralized finance platform. So I remind you again, but you bear the counterparty risk. That is, if Nexo collapses, well, and it has happened, Celsius, for example, which was a centralized finance platform that went bankrupt, or Yield App, for example. There have been many others anyway during the post-FTX period. So, anyway, if you go through there, you know that you bear this risk, but the risk is potentially rewarding because you are rewarded on your USDT at a rate of potentially, I don't know, between 8 and 14%, something like that, depending on the periods, because obviously, periods when many people borrow are periods when they can give you high rates because people are willing to borrow at high rates. Well, it depends on that, and it also depends on how you want to be paid, whether you want to be paid in USDT or directly in their Nexo token. And if you lock up Nexo, etc., well, you know this kind of mechanism. So potentially it can be interesting for those who wish to switch to this kind of protocol, platform, and wait a bit more precisely for real reversals. Well, if you have significant sums and if you know that if you re-enter, you won't re-enter 100%, you can put a portion of your capital there to make it grow. If potentially, well, we go until February or so to have a real structure, well, that gives you 2-3 months of remuneration via this kind of platform. So, regarding liquidations, I've talked about it, so I won't talk about it again here. We have this liquidation wall, we still have the same zone, if I take a step back. Well, which was at 69,000. Well, here we have 74,000. I think if I zoom out, other lines will appear. There! Yes, no, there. Yes, it's mainly 74,000 that seems to appear now. So, well, we'll see what happens. If it's 74,000, it would be a bit of a confluence with the levels we've discussed. So there are quite a few liquidations up to 59,000. That's what I was saying, anyway, we always have liquidations, etc. When we were there, we said, "Yes, but there are a lot of liquidations, so we'll go get them." Well, at some point, once, twice, three times, if we don't manage to break higher, there's a real problem. Okay? And that's exactly why I thought we had to lighten up on this rebound, despite the fact that we had liquidations above. This is the little educational point for you, but look, once, twice, three times, and each time we only manage to make very small spikes a little higher than the previous ones to recover liquidity. We had a liquidation wall here. The market makers, the exchanges, all they wanted was to liquidate all these people. If we didn't go and get them, there's a reason, okay? There was enough strength to push us lower. So when it's like that, don't wait for the peak. No, there have been three. Well, there won't be a fourth. Already, anyway, it was possible that we wouldn't have it. It was possible that we would stop before and make a spike like this, a little bit before, and then fall back down. Okay? So, we had it. Let's consider ourselves lucky. We got out here. Okay. Some got out on the spike, I wish them well. I got out here. Well, you see, it's the advantage, it's a bit the best choice because today, if tomorrow I have an invalidation, okay, well, already Bitcoin will give me an impulse like this. Okay? So all the people who got out here will be in panic. I re-enter, I exit again, I don't know if we re-enter on a pullback here, the lost opportunity is there, it's here. It's minuscule. Okay? So here, we are in the best possible configuration. We got out at the best moment, just on this rebound. So now, we have time. So we must take this time. Okay. Regarding the RSI, we are still below 50. Okay? It's generally not a very good sign. I had shown you, but this ranging phase where we were below this major trendline, it took us time to get out of this zone, below this neutral zone. The 50 zone was regained quite late. So, so here we were. Look, there's quite a bit of confluence. We had hit the 50 several times. There, we had come back down, we had stabilized, it corresponded to a time when we were along the trendline, okay? And there, we had our bearish movement that had brought us here. And there, we were able to make a real divergence, okay? With a drop in prices here, a rise in the RSI here. And there, we had started to go higher. So that's really what I'll be waiting for. Okay? That's what I want to see. If I see that, honestly, I'll be very happy and I'll take a bit more buying. If we look now, well, regarding the Sharpe ratio, it's something I like for the long term because it allows us to compare it to any asset, because you know the Sharpe ratio compares performance to volatility, it allows us to know if we are in an overbought or oversold phase. It's an oscillator like any other but it's generally used and quite relevant. So on this one, as on any other, as on any other asset. And you see that here, well, we were in zones of significant risk here. So, once again, these are oscillators. So it means we can stay for a long time in overheating phases and for a long time in oversold phases. But you see that here, we are not very far from interesting levels for reloading. Levels that we had reached in the past. Well, here, okay. Well, indeed, it's always the same, either we are here, that is, really in the transition between the rebound and the bear market, or we are here, that is, a big correction and then it will lead us to a new impulse. So, well. Otherwise, I wanted to show you here too because this is a very important indicator on Bitcoin spot average order size. And we have here a first green dot that appeared today. We have big whales. That's it. So you know, if we compare for example to the last corrective movement, the one we talk about regularly, since it's very similar to the one we have now, we had big whales here that led this bearish movement. Then they let the small portfolios play, you see retail orders. So retail is us, it's retail investors. And you see here, there was a big phase where investors played, and then the big whales woke up to prolong the bullish phase on Bitcoin. So to see, is this precisely a return of big whales to plunge into a bearish phase. Okay? Like we had here, we had big whales, retail, and when the big whales woke up, it wasn't long before the downtrend returned. Here it was the same, big whales and then boom. Basically, it was distribution, understand that. Understand that the orders, the large orders are from big whales, but they rather want to unload. And this could correspond a bit to this thesis, which is that what you see here, okay? So it's the number of whales that own more than 1000 Bitcoin. Okay? So I remind you, you have heuristics, that is, methods that allow on-chain platforms like Glassnode, CryptoQuant, etc., to show you this kind of chart because they are able to detect that such and such a portfolio belongs to the same entity. And so even if it's 20 portfolios of 100 Bitcoin, it's still 2000 Bitcoin. You shouldn't count them as 20 portfolios of less than 2000 Bitcoin. You have to make it a portfolio of more than 1000. Okay? And this is with methods that are quite classic. You look at the exchanges between different platforms and when it happens. Does it go through exchanges, etc., and at some point, you are able to say no, these are two platforms that are two portfolios that actually come from the same entity. So you link them together, and that allows you to have this kind of chart. And there you see that here, well, there are a lot of sales, a lot of portfolios that pass the 1000 Bitcoin threshold but in the opposite direction. So portfolios that owned 1200 and then own 800 less, etc. So that means it's unloading. And here, well, this is something we hadn't had. We hadn't had this at all at that time. We had reloading. So if I show you this and not necessarily the portfolio of more than 10,000, it's because in portfolios of more than 1000, I also have those that own more than 10,000. Okay? Here it's not yet really decisive, okay? Because, well, you see that it's stagnating a bit. There had been a return of strength. But you see that here, on the other hand, if we look at the last few days, we have really a lot of portfolios of more than 1000 Bitcoin that are decreasing. And the last time this happened, well, it was here, okay, it was before a major bearish pressure, a long and grueling range. And, well, if we look at comparable levels, it was here in 2024, but it was also here at the low point. So, well. And this could have happened here, here, here during the distribution phase. Okay? And this corroborates a bit what we talked about here, that is, we really have unloading from the whales. You see here, if we look here, I'm in percentage of the value held by Bitcoin, we have -7.5% of the value held by whales, okay? Bitcoin supply held by whales. So this is a very, very bad sign. Okay. If we look a bit at Google searches, still nothing. Fear & Greed index, we talked about it. Inflation remains under control. The small rebound, but well, it's quite contained anyway. Trump is making more and more statements to say that inflation has been neutralized, etc. He congratulates himself for that. And if we look a bit, we have a 75% probability of not having an interest rate cut, so not having an interest rate cut at the next two meetings, which would be January 28th and March 18th. So the next rate cut would be this one, the one we would have in April, going from these benchmark rates of 3.50%-3.75% to 3.25%-3.50%. Okay? So another 25 basis point cut at the end of April meeting. So that means that until then, we'll have to stay updated on the figures and see how the probability evolves. But here, it's likely to go in the right direction with a probable faster rate cut, but for now, the objective is still to reach around 3%. Okay? You saw here the idea would be to be, from the September 2026 return, around 3% of the Fed's benchmark rates and to maintain them for a while. Well, after that, the probabilities become more uncertain because we don't know the global economic and macroeconomic conditions. So, well, in any case, what matters to us here is especially these few next meetings, the next two or three meetings. So here, for now, we have only one rate cut planned for the next three meetings. So we'll look a bit at the order flow analysis. Here again, we are at our major level. The level where we concentrate a lot of trading is this one. The one right there, it's been a long time, it's a major equilibrium level. We manage to go above at times, at times we make small excursions below. Well, at some point, we will take a real direction. The peculiarity, and this is something that could lead us to a rebound, is that here we have funding rates decreasing, okay, since the 13th, so since Friday. Here, funding rates are decreasing over this period. So on derivative contracts, people think it's going to go lower. So will we do something like this to go lower again, to liquidate all the people who were a bit too greedy over the weekend? If we look here over the last three days, you will see that we have quite a few liquidations waiting just above at 91,000. So potentially a small move above 91,000 before going lower. Ideally, we would go and test 91,000 before the US stock market opens. Okay? So before 3:30 PM, we would potentially have, I don't know, by 11 AM, a rise to 91,000. There, a small stagnation, and at the opening of the US stock market, we would go down. This is a very probable scenario, especially if we see the US markets. There, I'll show you. The US markets are, for now, not very well oriented. So you see here that we finished Friday's session with a nice bearish candle, and especially you see that we had volatility that was decreasing. And now, we are increasing volatility, accentuating it. And we have a small gap, you see right there, there's a small gap here that we could go and test. So, well, this is actually quite, it's not very far from the current price. So, well, that will be a small drop of about 1%. Here, we have this major support level. Well, if we look at the NASDAQ, it's a bit less pretty with here, we are really drawing, there, a real M. Okay? So here, we had a V bottom, and now we are making it again, but in a rounded shape. And that's not a very good sign. It means we are simply getting tired, that the rise is becoming more and more tiring until a descent. And the objective, when it's like that, is the obvious support level, which is this one at 24,200 points. So that's a significant drop. It's a 3.5% drop, especially on a Bitcoin that is quite fragile. Well, this could be the famous period I was talking about between now and mid-January, okay, during this whole period, a bit of a complicated phase with the Nasdaq falling, maybe it will do something like this until Bitcoin starts to fall much, much more sharply, as we are used to, before finding a bit more strength and stagnation. Okay. Well, the US markets are obviously much better oriented. You see that the RSI is above the neutral zone of 50. That's rather interesting, even if, as you can see, we are accumulating divergences. Okay, here we have an RSI that is rather bearish. Okay, here, there, yet we had a rise in prices. So we are materializing a divergence. So, well, I think there's a need for a breather at the end of this year, and that's why I think we should stay on the sidelines for now. We'll just quickly go over the other indicators. On the long term, we still have selling pressure. On the exchanges, we still have capital leaving the exchanges. So that's rather positive. We also have something interesting on the put and call ratio, this ratio is decreasing. So it means that probably we have new buyers of calls who think that now is the right time to look for buying opportunities and to look for a rebound. So we'll see if they are right or wrong. Once again, it's not because I only have this indicator that indicates something bullish that I will go back to being bullish. I have other, again, it's a set of indices that allow me to define my probabilities according to my strategy. And here, well, indeed, I would probably have exited 100% if all indicators were bearish, but that's why I remain exposed at 20%. So here, at the level of whales, we talked about it. So I can talk about this. Here it is, the long-term all-chain cost basis. So, well, the objective here could be this realized price, which is here at $56,000. Honestly, I'm not sure we really need to go and get it. That would prove many people who are very bearish right. So in my opinion, if we go there, it's to go lower, to go and get the 40,000. So it's not necessarily a zone where I would reposition myself. Anyway, all of this is fiction. As long as we don't really have a clear direction, it's useless to make plans in the air. We'll see what happens. Once again, the crowd is often wrong. So, well, I'm wary of those who are always predicting a bear market because, well, you know, there's a premium for being the first to say that, I was the first when everyone was talking about a bull market, I told you there was a bear market, and when you're in a bear market phase, you'll have everyone looking for the prophet who predicted it. Okay? So, well, obviously everyone tries to be in that situation, to be the prophet who says we were going to fall when everyone thought we were going to rise, and ultimately I was right. So, well, be careful. Many people are in this game. I don't know what will happen, but currently I have more probability of seeing Bitcoin range between this level and this level. So here I will be vigilant until I have interesting things. For now, I'm not positioning myself much more than that. Well, I hope you enjoyed it. Take care of yourself and your portfolio, and I wish you happy holidays, even though we'll stay in touch all the time anyway. Well, have a good day and a good week. Goodbye.