Transcription
Today's number, guys, is a massive one. $14 trillion. A new milestone set by Black Rock when it comes to assets under management. And it marks an important point in 2026 when it comes to rotation and money flow searching.
So, what do we see when it comes to opportunities for the rest of the year ahead? And has Wall Street completely rewritten the game? With movements into small caps, growth, and out of some of the biggest tech stocks? With earning season now upon us, the financials are starting to look a little bit shaky. So, what's in store as the Magnificent 7 breaks down against the S&P?
In today's video, we explore stocks, commodities, and cryptos from both an investor and trader mindset right now to uncover some of Wall Street's secrets. And boy oh boy, are there some big options flows. See you soon, guys. This will be a very good one.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson and in today's video, we'll be taking a look at the macro, the big levels that you need to be watching right now, and of course, what Wall Street wants you to not know about the markets when it comes to these big movements.
Let's kick things off though with the big story right now, which is of course Black Rock and the $14 trillion milestone they've just reached when it comes to assets under management. Take a look at the acceleration over the last couple of years and particularly when everybody started to talk about index funds back in the early 2010s. You can really see how many new investors have come in over the last couple of years and more importantly how concentrated some of these funds are now starting to become. And this is the most important part of the markets, the concentration factor. It's not just that we have people like Black Rock making tons of different exchange traded funds and getting larger assets under management. It's also that most of these funds have always been focused on technology.
And you can see here from our latest post over on X links in the description down below that the advanced decline line something we often talk about on this channel has been skyrocketing in recent days as the market the market actually rotates and shows breadth but at the same time has barely gone up since actually the October highs only doing about .5 to 1%. So what does this mean for the market? Well, it tells us that we're very concentrated and it's going to be very difficult between 26 to do well in the index if we're not seeing the biggest tech world come along to the party. And while so far we've had some pretty good blockbuster earnings from TSM, which obviously showed some incredible gains due to AI data center demand, we've also started to see some shaky signs when it comes to the banks and their announcements, especially surrounding future profits.
So, now that we're in earning season, the next two weeks are going to be very important. And of course, we'll be covering all of that in a lot of detail. But maybe the big thing we need to be considering right now is the Magnificent 7. And I don't see enough people talking about this chart specifically when you compare it to the S&P 500, which in many ways kind of looks like this, a head and shoulders pattern. Could it be a sign of a canary in the coal mine? And will financials actually hold up after all these earnings results or are they going to start to some declines?
Later on today's video, we've got the big charts that you need to be watching. So, as you guys know, we cover darkpool transactions a lot. These are basically transactions between two entities, generally an institution to an institution, and they're done offm market and then of course reported usually at the end of the day.
Now, you'll notice recently we've seen tons of transactions, especially since the Federal Reserve did a rate cut that's shown us that there's been almost no gains in the Magnificent 7 since that time, unless you've been in Google and maybe some Nvidia positions. But now, that's starting to show some cracks. And remember, if this does break down specifically under these little support lines over here, we might be starting to say where there could be a correction coming in markets. And it is a midterm year, so do remember that is pretty normal.
Another worrying sign is stocks such as this. As you guys may know, if you've been watching the channel for a long time, one of my favorite stocks in the market has always been Microsoft. It's gone one of the best moes and it's done incredibly well. But at the same time, we've just had the third and ninth largest transaction come over the last couple of weeks. And since then, price action has actually turned to the downside. So, is it time to start panicking? Well, the answer is quite simply no. It's not ready to time start panicking because we already knew that sector fund flow was going to most likely come out of tech. Hence why we see that literally coming in here from the latest Deutsch Bank and Isabella.net overall information.
But realistically, the main thing that we've been looking at is other sectors. It's a time of stock pickers markets. And this really is broadly shown to us when we start to look at small caps versus the large caps out there. The Russell 2000 actually has definitely gone up versus both the Q's and of course the S&P when it comes to overall analysis. And what this is really showing us is very strong gains here in the markets when it comes to a broadening pattern. You might think that's pretty good and everyone of course celebrates breadth at the start, but actually this is something that we've already warned against in 2026 if we continue to see it, especially over the next 3 months. Remember, market structure post a rate cut is actually incredibly important and it's something that we'll continue to discuss in 2026. So, make sure to subscribe and smash the alert button for that because guys, this will matter whether you're a trader or an investor.
Now, what about right now coming through earning season so far? What have we seen? Well, we've actually seen a decent amount of puts come back in and Subu Trade has found that the put call ratio has again gone above .77 or 76 threshold and obviously shown signs of tons of puts, tons of worry coming into this earning season. And although the markets just continuously slightly push higher, this shows you that the markets are run by news and of course narratives. And people are definitely scared right now. Even though the market is showing huge breadth, huge amounts of stocks advancing and some pretty good statistics, there's a lot of people trying to hedge to the downside.
In similar situations, when we've seen the S&P 500 down, such as we did 24 hours ago, and then we see so many stocks advancing, these are the stats that surround the next couple of months. And you'll note that while things can get a little bit hairy maybe a month into it and we can sometimes get dips in general the next 6 months and 3 months are actually pretty positive overall. 89% of the time in similar reads we're actually seeing a positive market. So it does suggest that for now at least if dips do occur there may be a buyer of last resort. That is there may be somebody willing to come in and say you know what that dip looks tasty I'm ready to buy it up. The key here will be watching the magnificent 7 which of course we'll be doing.
Now have a look here at Grant Hawk's data. You can see that the number of trend counts in terms of overall bullish action has continued to rise. And this is something that we've also tracked for years and years and years which has been the amount of stocks above the 50 200 and of course whether they're actually greater than each other that is they've crossed to the upside. And in this case, it is pretty much a broad-based market gain, but because it isn't led by tech, it's almost not having much impact onto the index. So, it does show again stock picking and asset selection is such an important part of 2026.
Let's now also talk about silver. Now, many of you may have seen some absolutely wild moves. We've been big proponents of silver, obviously enjoying the content on silver over the last couple years from a price action based perspective, and volume has been skyrocketing through the roof. But the big thing here has also come to blight and I'm not sure exactly how good this data is, but I did see it over from no limit over on X and it basically says here that supposedly Bank of America, Cityroup and I'm sure a few others have some pretty large net position short. Now, a lot of people look at this and they say, "Well, this means that they're in really big trouble." And obviously, there's some very large uh discussions going on about this on the media point of view, but you will notice that if you look at the positions versus global annual mine supply, you'll notice that they're pretty large overall. So, of course, the net short positions are massive in paper compared to the actual amount of deliverables. And this is what people have been arguing for a long time to create short squeezes.
Now, I thought I'd bring it up. I don't really fall too much into this one because I do think that you don't know exactly how this is all hedged and how everything's playing out, but it is still a story that I've seen over the last 24 hours. And of course, it lines up pretty well with large transactions starting to appear in the markets. Now, we will be looking at more silver ETFs to see whether we're continuing to see large dark pulls, but since we saw this big sweep over here, the market rallied, it dumped. And what's happened again is because we got that massive dump, basically volatility has entered back into the market. And this is a sign that things are starting to get shaky. So there's probably an active bid and of course dump going on right now that's going to get quite wild, I would suspect, over the next couple of weeks. And this is certainly going to be one of those situations where if you've got tight stop losses, if your margin through the roof and all those types of things, yeah, it could be one of those really brutal style situations. So, be very careful out there, guys. There's no doubt that we're getting to that point now where volatility's come back into the chat and that does cause a huge amount of instability. So, we probably won't see a really good technical on silver for a little while now, maybe a few days, maybe a few weeks, but we'll be watching very closely as usual. Longer term still looks okay on the macro. As you can see, there clearly is a supply demand dynamic, but yeah, V seems to be just around the corner.
Let's have a look here at January market performance. We know during midterm years, according to the Almanac trader, that generally the market will kind of drop halfway through the month and start to decline a little bit. Now, that's just a generality. If we don't see things like Magnificent 7 fall off, then it's unlikely to occur. And as you can see here, the S&P 500 usually does have a little bit more weakness at the end of the month coming into earning season than the start of the month based on at least previous years being pretty good.
Let's now jump into the charts before we look at the options. First up, as we already mentioned, the advanced decline line is massive and this market is what we call dull. Now, generally speaking, if it's a dull market and you've got advanced decline going through the roof, it's not usually a very bearish signal. We are in a concentrated market, so we have to consider that. And if the Magnificent 7 goes down, the reality is index may actually drop. But at the same time, it doesn't show what I would say broad-based, you know, crash weakness at this stage. And we are looking for bonds and maybe even CVs to actually flinch this year. And we have not seen any credit default swaps or anything like that actually show up as extreme warning signs just yet. We are looking and if we find them, we'll report on them, but we haven't seen them just yet.
Here are the options high and low levels for today. But let's take a look at the options themselves. And the main one here on Friday is that of course 7,000 remains an incredibly bullish call wall for the markets. And it seems like coming into next week, we have a lot of puts sitting around that 6925 to 6,900. Now, what this basically is showing is the market is relatively trapped in this next 100 points. 6,900ish the 7K. It seems like it's going to be a big news event that may take us out of there, but certainly there's no extreme bearish action yet. 69 getting taken below as you can see down here on the right hand side. That may create like a what we call a waterfall effect and we could be at 68 very quickly, but it's probably going to be earnings and Magnificent 7 would probably have to fall off a cliffhas market action.
Tesla wise 430 460ish zones no real change there in terms of positive or negative gamma and Nvidia of course still remains around that 1901 195 which we've mentioned many times IBIT might be the most interesting component obviously we've seen a breakout or what we think looks like a breakout here in Bitcoin it's since kind of simmered a little bit down to the 95,000 kind of level and what you'll find is that that's marking very well with IBIT which is sitting around 55 so effectively If we get through 55 on IBIT and we close above it, you guessed it, 60 is the next gamma level. So that would mark pretty well over 100,000. And of course, we expect that the market would would start to start needing to hedge off. And that's something similar to what we've seen in gold and silver recently with a lot of bank hedging and all sorts of hedging and under like low liquidity and minimal like kind of maximizing and minimizing the amount of leverage people allowed to have. All sorts of things going on in in the commodities markets.
Let's talk on gold for a second. 430 is actually the main target in terms of call walls and $425. We haven't actually reached that point yet. And silver seems to be playing with that major first level, which is that $85 on SLV. Now, this is different, of course, to silver's spot price. This is just SLV, the stock. And you can see here that we've got this very strong call wall coming through. and it does seem to show up a decent amount when you start looking into the March and even June positions. So, yeah, something going on there in terms of we're getting close to a call wall, so expect volatility to enter into the chat and get even more wild.
First up in earnings, we had, of course, TSM. TSM ended up eating out some extremely good growth. Supposedly, uh we ended up seeing huge gains here on on the overall quarterly basis. And of course, there was growth across the board. And this marks really just what price actions already been saying, which is semiconductors across the board have been up. We've had the pit, which was last year. And this is usually a good sign. If semiconductors are going up, remember, we think that's like modernday Dow theory, which basically means that the market is doing okay for now.
Now, if we have a look at XLF, it's a little bit different. You'll notice here that the financials have been dropped, drop, drop, drop, drop, drop. And while they're not under 51, which I think is the really big concerning point, this is not exactly bullish anymore. We were making a series of higher highs and higher lows or equal lows and now all of a sudden we've made a lower low over here on the right hand side. So this basically signals, you know, a potential here for change of trend. And of course, I would say like, you know, the potential that maybe financials are starting to weaken. Another thing we're going to need to do is track financials versus other asset classes here in 2026.
Let's take a look at Magnificent 7 as well. You'll notice here the Magnificent 7 has been pretty lackluster since October since we got those rate cuts. And if you actually look at it versus the S&P, it looks terrible. It is absolutely underperforming. We've talked about this chart before, guys, and you can clearly see it here. That is a head and shoulders. And if a head and shoulders is going to complete at least in pattern formation, you can see here if we take that distance, we extrapolate this out, which we'll do right now together. And we'll grab that. So here we go. Uh then of course you can see that's actually sign signaling further weakness. And if we do get further weakness in the magnificent 7, then that is unlikely to make the index look up. It doesn't mean that actually stocks will go down cuz more stocks may actually be holding. But the Magnificent 7 indeed does not look that strong at this time.
So now move over to something that does look a little bit better. Bitcoin of course has confirmed a break above 94,500. The weekly will be interesting to watch this week. See how it interacts with certain prices here, especially this weekly 20 moving average. Often seen as mean reversion. Pretty important point. And we'll be watching of course the I bit. But if you have a look here, Ethereum is now playing with that potential bull level. And another one that we've seen recently has been XRP breakout and Salana starting to think about getting a strong breakout. So, it's right on that kind of is it broken, is it not kind of level. I would say it looks kind of partially broken, but it's not quite confirmed every time frame including weeklys. So certainly an improvement here in flows on Bitcoin and it does look like at least for now the bulls are in control of that one. We'll see whether they can hold it.
Russell 2000 versus SPY. We've been talking about rotation for a long time. This is a significant breakout and it does look like small caps and midcaps are going to be beating the big ones for a little while longer. And the oil trade has ended up simmering back down to pretty much where the moving averages sit. the 20 and the 50 moving average after taking out 6050. But now actually the short term looks like oil is kind of more in the upwards direction than what has been all of 2024 which was pretty much down down. So it has started to turn a little bit but really where we've seen this movement has been oil services and oil services have been skyrocketing up and it just goes to show again asset selection is key over the last 6 months particularly.
Another one that's been doing pretty well has been China stocks. We've talked a lot about liquidity here and obviously about the fact that we thought liquidity was coming back into the system. It does look like it has been and it could be that China breaks a new high before the Chinese New Year. Goldwise, we're in a pit. So basically, we're in a sideways market action here. Uh no real bullishness, no real bearishness. Trend is of course up. So at this stage it may be just kind of consolidating. And you can see that platinum is doing something similar.
The most important asset class though in all of this could be copper or silver which copper and silver particularly silver has seen a lot of volatility. You can see just 24 hours ago we dropped almost 7 7 to 8% very very quickly. We've since rallied it. I would class that as volatility has entered runs again and the last time we saw this was the back end of 26 and this could mean some wild moves are coming. We do know that there are powerful forces at work here, guys, and silver. Uh whether that's true about how many short contracts or not are out there, I don't know. Obviously, I can't really verify that. But what I do know is that we've been strong on the macro side for this. We've been strong on the trend side. I'm certainly not bearish on silver, but I do think that volatility has entered the chat once again. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see upwards of, you know, anywhere from 10 to 20% up down all around as we've seen just recently because it's it's pretty wild. And another reason why that may happen is our silver gold ratio hit .02 which is pretty big deal.
Let's now move over to copper. Very strong, still looks good. I noticed a few investors have come out and said they believe this is their best investment of 2026. I'm not so sure about that necessarily, but it certainly has been strong and pretty good in the charts. And Tesla is in the middle of nowhere. 430 on the put wall, 460 on the call wall for now. Magnificent 7, as we mentioned, there is some weakness here. And Nvidia actually our double bottom kind of trade holding up the best over the last 24 hours. So, we're seeing kind of like stronger technical patterns hold and we're seeing kind of the weaker ones actually fall through. So, you know, a lot of people are making. So, it'll be interesting to see what happens now. But this has been kind of declining a little bit after a couple of trades up here. Darkpool's come in and Microsoft looks frankly not very good. So, it be interested to know what your opinion is on Microsoft. That doesn't look very good, does it? When you look on the charts.
US 2K may have found some exhaustion at least temporarily, but very, very strong. If it does break out 2691, that means make a new high. We kind of expect it to squeeze for maybe a session or two, but it is starting to get a little bit extended. And as we often mentioned this year, maybe one of the most important underlook charts is going to be the dollar. A lot of people would think the dollar is going to decline right now, but actually it's been strengthening even though everything else is going up against the dollar as well. So it just shows during geopolitical tensions, the US dollar does sometimes get a bid. And if it does break this massive trend line, that's going to be a story we think for 2026.
Guys, if you enjoyed today's video, then please remember to subscribe, smash that like button as well. Does help us out. And do remember, you know, the big thing here with markets is basically to always uh remain calm and especially in 2026 to focus on the price action and flows. For the time being, it looks like Wall Street has gone from a buy just tech to maybe other sectors. And we've already suspected that on this channel for months and months and months since the Fed cut. And actually, while a lot of people celebrate this, and it is good, at least temporarily, it could end up leading into some problems. So, for now, it does seem like the bonds market's not flinching, if that does happen, we'll be the first to report it. Bye for now, guys. We'll see you on the weekend.