Transcription
Hello everyone, it's Atri from your certified investment advisor in France, and we're taking stock of what's happening with Bitcoin and the altcoins. The first point, which is extremely important, is that this weekend, as predicted, we moved back above the MA50 Weekly, which is this little green line right here, symbolizing the average price over the last 50 periods. Since we're on a weekly timeframe, this shows the average price over the last 50 weeks. What's very important, as you can see, I've isolated it with an orange circle here, is that we've had the same type of rebound as we had right here at the bottom of April 2025, here also at the bottom of September 2024, and also August 2024. And this MA has been a sign of strength throughout the bull run. We've come back to it once again; we were below it until Friday, and you can see that the movement on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday has resulted in us clearly closing above this 50-day moving average. And so, this is very positive for now. It's very positive, and yet it's not yet won. We have very good signs, we'll talk about them in this video, but we absolutely must maintain these levels on a weekly timeframe. Anything below weekly can be deviations, liquidity grabs, and so on. It's truly a weekly timeframe that we need to refer to. And the first point that personally bothers me is this double bottom right here at the level of $99,000 and around $98,500. This is a level that has been isolated and is extremely strong. Why? Because it is currently the price level that has been traded the most, that has also been accumulated the most by whales. You can see here, I've put a volume profile indicator that shows you, within a given price range, what is the price that has been traded the most, both upwards and downwards. And it is precisely this price that has served as a rebound multiple times for Bitcoin's price. You can see that over several weeks, we have consolidated on it several times, both upwards and downwards. This level has acted as the last level of resistance and rejection, then support and rejection again, and support once more, but we could very well come here to seek these price zones. This price zone is still interesting because we see that even if a lot of liquidity resides higher now, we still have quite significant clusters up to 4.2 billion in cumulative leverage in these zones. And if we go down to $96,000 or even $97,000, we are still at 5 billion dollars in cumulative leverage. So personally, you know, there are several principles that govern our analysis, and one of them is PO3. PO3 is a three-phase movement. A manipulation phase in which the price first goes to seek liquidity objectives. It also gives a sign that is contrary to the market by initiating a false move. Then, once the objectives are taken and enough accumulation has taken place, we make the opposite move, which is a price extension movement with a distribution movement at the close, and therefore a retracement. What we generally see is that Monday and Tuesday initiate it. Generally, you can look at your chart when Monday and Tuesday are bullish and we reach liquidity objectives, we then reverse for the end of the week with Saturday and Sunday closing higher, a sign that we have a distribution phase. We experienced this last week, we experienced it most of the time. When we see red or green candles, you can zoom in, we experience it most of the time. That is to say, if Monday and Tuesday are bullish with an objective reached, then generally, we reverse for the rest of the week by being bearish, with the weekend coming to perform a distribution phase, and thus the price rises. Conversely, when we start the week being very bearish, reaching lower liquidity objectives, then there's a high chance we'll reverse and be bullish for the week. We experienced this scenario, notably here and the week of April 7th, which then initiated the bullish wave. We experienced it here the week of September 2nd, also before a bullish retracement. And so, I would prefer to see the beginning of this week, Monday and Tuesday during the American session, especially a price that will come to dip, that will come to seek precisely these lows right here. Even if we go higher from today, there is no certainty that we will finish the week lower, but I would prefer to see a scenario in which we become bearish directly today and see a very strong reversal on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, etc., tomorrow. This would, in my opinion, truly initiate an ascent phase for Bitcoin. For now, the fact that we have maintained this MA gives an extremely strong signal, and this signal is translated by these small lines right here. These trendlines that I've put here in orange-yellow are trendlines that connect the major supports since the beginning of the cycle. You see here there's a first support and a second. This one is the next one right here. This one is the next one here. And this one is the last one right here. And what you can see, if we remove this last line which is purely freehand drawn, is that we have an acceleration in the angles of the trendlines. What I mean by that is that the first trendline was ascending with an average slope. The second trendline has a much steeper slope. The third, we have a much steeper slope, and the fourth here, even with a dip, remains on a steeper slope than the last one. And this signifies one thing. It signifies that the formation of a parabola on Bitcoin is well underway, and we want to maintain this momentum for the rest of the cycle. A sign that Bitcoin's momentum, despite drops and corrections that can be quite significant, is maintaining a very bullish momentum that is parabolic in style, with an end of bull run that we expect like this, an almost vertical ascent of Bitcoin in the coming weeks and months. On-chain, what's quite interesting is to look at what short-term holders are doing. Short-term holders are all those who have held Bitcoin for less than 150 days. And it's extremely important to see what they're doing, what their psychology is, to determine where the market is going. As you know, the market always transfers money from the impatient to the patient. And what we generally see in market movements is short-term holders buying tops, suffering corrections, not having the patience to wait, and capitulating, selling their cryptocurrencies when they are in the red. And here, you clearly see what's happening with the short-term holders. And currently, they have never been so much in the red. You can see the spike right here, which exceeds all the spikes we've had during various corrections. The last correction, we went deep, certainly, but we went to a deviation of -0.86. Here, we were at a deviation of -0.15, so not much. And even at the bottom of the bear market, right here, on the drop of June 2022, we were at a deviation of -1.3. Currently, we are at a deviation of almost -1.5, which is enormous and shows that short-term holders are really underwater. They are underwater, they are experiencing huge losses, and above all, they have a momentum that has never been so bearish. And if you notice, every time we've had these big spikes, we've been at a bottom. These are the zones that operate a mental shift and a price shift because people are losing money, they sell, they capitulate, and they even go short. And this will be the key relationship that will allow us to appreciate the probabilities of going higher on Bitcoin and the altcoins. But just before we look at the latest indicators, I invite you to join the Millennium adventure. Millennium is where my private community gathers. You can go to the website, the link is in the description, you sign up right here, and you can join the Discord with the private channels where we do everything for the groups. We do all macro, on-chain, and technical analysis. We are a team of traders, and we take care of you in the smallest details. We provide you with weekly reports with our vision for the week. The latest one came out this morning, I just published it, you can see it right here. We give the cryptos we're entering, with entry prices, our portfolio allocations. We do a private live every Thursday at 6 PM. You can see the tab is here. So as to be able to assist and answer all questions from members. We also organize two to three times a week what we call Millennium Radio. What is that? Basically, it's 1 hour, 1.5 hours, 2 hours during which I come on Discord vocally, and everyone can ask me questions. Generally, we are between 100, 150, or even 200 live. Everyone can ask me their questions while others listen, and this creates a direct connection that is extremely important between a YouTuber and their community. And you won't find this anywhere else. So this 100% support is only available through our community. So if for you too it seems extremely important to be accompanied, managed, clearly directed in this market, which is the most vicious market in the world, you click on the link in the description, you join the community, and we'll be happy to welcome you. Regarding other indicators to look at, there's one that's extremely important: the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. Yesterday, just before the Fear and Greed update, for the first time since 2024, we had a divergence between the Fear and Greed Index and the price. The price made a rebound, and yet the Fear and Greed Index continued to fall during the day, a sign that many people were taking this rebound as a trap and continued not to believe in it. And this is a very important phase because it's what will make people FOMO just after. Psychologically, the price always makes a bearish switch when people are euphoric and are too much in profit. You can see it clearly on this chart. As soon as short-term holders are in profit and have bullish momentum, we experience a correction. Conversely, every time they are bearish and are experiencing losses, selling their cryptocurrencies, capitulating, we are at a local or even absolute bottom on Bitcoin. And so, this fear momentum is extremely important to be able to reverse the price. Why? Because psychologically, people are out, and we will make them FOMO later. But above all, this fear leads them to behave in exactly the way they shouldn't, and that is to take shorts on Bitcoin and altcoins. We are on Glassnode here, and I'd like to draw your attention to a striking behavior already this Monday morning from the retail perspective. We have Bitcoin and the different centralized and decentralized exchanges with the long-short ratio over 24 hours. So you can see that on Binance, it's about 50/50, and generally, we're more around a ratio of 50 and some exchanges where there are quite a few more short sellers. But what's interesting is to take a mental image of what I've just shown you and zoom in on what's happening more recently on Bitcoin. And here, you can see the ratio changing. What will be important is to take a mental snapshot. Look closely at the numbers here: 49, 47, 45, 50, and so on. And we'll switch, not from 24 hours, but to 1 hour. What are people doing in the last hour? And you can see it's striking, they are clearly increasing their short percentage. On Binance, we're almost at 58% short. On KuCoin, we're at 53%. On Gate.io, at 52%, and so on. There's a majority of exchanges, at least the big ones where we are predominantly going short. People don't believe in this rebound, and that's exactly what we need to feed short clusters, as we call them, much higher. This will drive the price to bullish extensions that can be very significant, like this one, like this one right here, because people are being stopped out, people are being stopped out, and many others are arriving on the market after having the confirmation of the confirmation of the confirmation, and they will enter here in FOMO mode in zones that are no longer buyable, like $117,000, $118,000, or even $120,000. And it's this FOMO that will allow us to push prices even higher with an opportunity to take profits, exit before a new market correction that will exhaust them and repeat once again everything we know, which is ups, downs, ups, downs with these market psychologies that are setting in, and which will allow us, those who capture them, to position ourselves here, to sell here where the masses will arrive, to profit from the next correction, and to have optimal movements because the market has clearly changed. You can see it in terms of price, we are clearly on an ascent, but it's an ascent that is regular, certainly, but not the same as in 2021 or even 2017, where when we generated this parabola, we were directly in a parabola with very powerful, very straight, very bullish weeks. The market is no longer the same. We are rising much more in the manner of an SP500 market with an extension, a correction, an extension, a correction. And this, we know what it causes for altcoins. For altcoins outside the top 10, so you have the chart right here, it causes something very different from Bitcoin. It causes zones of uncertainty in which altcoins are the first asset sold and thus unfortunately suffer from a chart that is certainly bullish but is clearly ranging since January 2025. Since January 2025, we haven't broken out of this range here. And this is a clear indication of a situation in which we are waiting for confirmations. We are waiting for Bitcoin to take off. We are waiting, as you know, for macroeconomic confirmations, for confirmations from other assets that seem to have finished their cycle, like gold, for example. And above all, we are waiting for this famous asset rotation that seems to be taking place now. If you don't know what I'm talking about in terms of macroeconomics, you can refer to the latest videos, we talk about it extensively, and it will clearly give you the direction the price will follow in the coming weeks, or even months. So, let's stay focused, let's take into account the objective data that truly informs us about what will follow, and not about bias, about our sentiment which can only be pessimistic at the moment if we don't know enough about financial markets. In any case, if this video and the previous ones have helped you, don't hesitate, you know the result, support the channel because it's truly this support that allows us to deliver quality work week after week on YouTube, in the community, and that allows us to do increasingly in-depth analyses to truly teach you everything that goes on behind the scenes in financial markets. This was Atreid. Have a good day.