Transcription
Now then, the Russian President Vladimir Putin has said a sustainable peace deal with Ukraine hinges on addressing the issue of NATO's eastward expansion. Speaking at the Shanghai Corporation Organization meeting in Tanzhin, he said the West had tried to bring Ukraine into its orbit and then sought to entice Russia's smaller neighbor into the US-led NATO military alliance.
His comments followed talk that China's Xiinping and India's Narendra Modi at that summit. Within the last hour, we've seen world leaders attending the gathering once again. As you can see there as well, Turkey's leader Rajip ta Erdogan walking alongside Russia's Vladimir Putin.
Well, watching this with us is former US ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton. John, good to have you with us. Appreciate you sharing your time. All eyes on Shanghai at the moment. And in in previous instances, this has been referred to as the the League of Authoritarian Gentlemen or a dictator's club. But it's it's somewhat upended now, isn't it? When you see people like Narendra Modi attending, too. What do you make of his attendance?
Well, there's a lot of bad news here, very little good news. Um uh the the West has spent decades, US in particular, trying to wean India away from its cold war attachment to Soviet Union, Russia, buying sophisticated weapons from them and and cautioning India on the danger posed by China. This is symbolized by what's called the Asian security quad. Japan, India, Australia, and the United States. a lot of effort, a lot of effort to make India more amendable to cooperation with these countries. Donald Trump in the past weeks has essentially upended that and for a variety of reasons now sent India back toward Russia to grow closer to China uh and just shredding these these decades of efforts to try and change that alignment. I'm not saying this can't be fixed, but it's going to take a lot of work and I don't see it starting anytime soon.
Six months ago, we would have talked about the bromance between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi of of India and then in Trump's attempt to try and bring some leverage against Putin of Russia in respect to the situation in Ukraine 50% tariffs on India and are we saying therefore from from your perspective that that India has been driven in this direction as much as it's decided to go in this direction?
Well, I think I I think that's right. It's a series of things that Trump has done that have offended the Indians on the basic tariffs uh that Trump wants which I think as a macrolevel economic phenomena are disaster for everybody but the Indians thought they were in close negotiations to solve this uh as Britain did with with Trump and Trump just dismissed it and set 25% tariffs then carrying through as you mentioned on his threat to either tariff Russia or impose secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas. Uh Trump whacked India with another 25%. Did not tariff Russia. Did not tariff China, the largest purchaser of Russian oil and gas. And then to make it worse, when the recent uh uh escalation between Pakistan and India over a terrorist attack in Kashmir occurred. It escalated then came back down. Trump took full credit for it as one of the six or seven wars that he stopped this year to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize which has made India incandescent.
This organization brings together a huge swave of the world. It's kind of a 40% or so of the of the global population, huge element of the Eurasian land mass, something like 23% of global GDP. And I'm just looking at some of the comments being made by Xiinping and he says that the world should seek integration, not decoupling. have an inclusive economic globalization and that there should be a community of common security across the region. This feels like a a massive potential reset that the West would really struggle to to counter.
Well, this is a largely a propaganda show, but it it demonstrates there's a reality behind it though. China's hegemonic ambitions in East and Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the former republics of uh the Soviet Union. again, all of which the US, Japan, Australia, uh many in Europe have been trying to prevent from happening. But Donald Trump's tariff policies, his unwillingness to consider uh uh even uh beneficial diplomatic moves in a larger strategic context have given Xihinping and the Chinese an opportunity. Whether they can exploit it or not remains to be seen.
Where does this this leave us with the situation in Ukraine and peace? Because two weeks ago, 15th of August on the Friday, we were focusing on Alaska, Putin and Trump in the presidential car and the beast driving away from their aircraft. There was all the talk of security guarantees, you know, Steve Wickoff coming and making big declarations following. That feels like a very far cryway now. How does the US and the West respond to what it's seeing and try and bring about that goal of some degree of peace in Ukraine?
Well, I think the whole thing is collapsing. I think the chances for peace in Ukraine are probably worse now than they were before the Alaska summit. Putin has gotten away literally with murder. Uh whatever he said to Trump in Alaska, uh he's simply ignoring with increased attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. No dimmonition in Russia's military efforts, no concessions whatever. this speech of his at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization you just quoted that the real fundamental cause of his invasion of Ukraine was NATO uh is something that's the basis for him now to try and restructure NATO. That's what he really wants as well as possession of Ukraine. No change whatever in Russia's position.
Why do you say the situation's worse now than than before that summit?
Well, I think uh as hard as it is to predict what Trump will do, I think he will just disengage. uh he's got a moral equivalence between Russia and Ukraine for who started the war and how it's conducted. Uh I'm I'm very much worried he will now simply back away, maybe continue to sell arms to European countries that can be transmitted to Ukraine. Uh but in terms of any effort to help Ukraine defend itself against this unprovoked Russian aggression, I don't see it.
What should the US be doing?
Well, what we should have done three and a half years ago, frankly, was develop a strategy with NATO. actually to achieve what NATO's stated goal is, which is the full restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity, which uh we didn't do for three years under the Biden administration. It's much more difficult now. Uh but I think that's the only acceptable outcome. Otherwise, Russia, China, and other potential aggressor nations will draw the conclusion that you can get away with aggression.
Has Trump been humiliated to some degree in this situation by Putin?
Well, I think he has been. I don't think he realizes it, but I think Putin believes that the old magic is back. That his KGB training has allowed him again to pull the wall over Trump's eyes. Uh, it's working out very well for the Kremlin.
What about you reference European countries there, NATO countries, you know, last night, for example, the UK agrees to supply and and Norway agrees to buy as well, British frigots, for example. What can countries such as the UK do in situations such as this? How much leverage is there in reality?
Well, I think uh to support the commitment we've all made to Ukraine, uh the continuation of arm shipment and and really developing a strategy to prevent further erosion of Ukrainian control in the uh in the face of this continuing Russian onslaught is just critical. uh and if uh if the Trump administration isn't willing to provide it, I think England, which was a leader in uh aiding Ukraine right from the day of the invasion in 2022, uh could could well take the the leading role.
And in in a sense of leadership, Sakir Stalmer has allied with Amango Macron France to to head up the the coalition of the willing as they're calling it that that may play some role in security guarantees if if that world was to ever come about. What what do you make of of those offerings to to try and bring about peace in in that perspective?
Well, I don't think the security guarantees mean that much actually. I think what Putin has here is a long range strategy to take control of Ukraine. This is part of his goal to recreate the Russian Empire. He's been very clear on that in public statements for 20 years. So despite the enormous human cost to the Russians and to the Ukrainians, he's only roughly doubled Russian control of Ukrainian territory from the first assault in 2014. I think any pause in the fighting is just the preliminary so that Russia can rebuild and and restock its army and get ready for the third offensive.
It always strikes me there's a challenge for for Western democracies. Fouryear cycles in the United States, in the UK, four to five year cycles. Russia, Putin's been there since 2000, 25 years. You know, look at Xi Jinping. He's set himself up for life as well. These these authoritarian figures have the benefit of time, do they not? That they afford themselves the benefit of time and the and the variable consistency from the West is a challenge for the West because we're changing tank if not on a on a four-yearly basis, often even faster than that.
Well, we actually did pretty well through the Cold War, which was a long struggle from 1945 roughly to 1989. Uh, I think we can do it again, but I think it requires honestly the leadership of the United States, and I don't see that for the next three and a half years.
To what degree should we think about any limitations that President Putin has, and I I I think, for example, the economy is suffering. his long-term ally, which he pumped billions of dollars of support into or rubles of support into Bashar al-Assad, fools. And all Russia really does is allow the plane to land in Moscow. You know, Moscow and and Tran sign a security agreement, but then Israel bombs Iran widely with US support and Russia doesn't do anything there either. Is is there limitations to to Moscow? And if so, to what degree can they be leveraged?
Well, I think there are limitations, but I think the graver danger is the axis that's being formed right now between China and Russia. Uh it may look like the Sino Soviet alliance of the Cold War, but this time China is clearly the dominant partner. Uh I think it has grave threats implicit in it for Russia itself. But in the meantime, this is how this Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. And by the way, the big parade on Wednesday where where the Chinese Communist version of how they beat Japan in World War II will be displayed shows really long-term thinking on Xihinping's part. So he's happy to bring Russia closer to him in the long term. Very very beneficial to China. And that parade, a historic attendance, first time since 1959, I think of a of a North Korean leader going to that parade. history being made there.
A different kind of history being made here later this autumn. Donald Trump coming for a second state visit. Unprecedented. You will have seen that moment that Sakama flourishes the letter from the king. What would if you were sat in a room with either the king or with Sakir? What would your advice be to to dealing with Trump having spent so much time with him one-on-one?
Well, flattery is always good. Uh refer to the Gulf of America, formerly the Gulf of Mexico. Think of things like that. Uh I I give Star credit for for deploying the state uh uh visit invitation when he first met with Trump. Uh he may want to deploy it two or three more times during Trump's term. It may be an annual thing. Trump loves it when he when the queen gave the state dinner in Buckingham Palace in in the the first uh Trump state visit. Really? I thought he would have stayed all night if he could have. you you could see a world where it would be beneficial for you know it's often touted the special relationship to have the president over on on an annual basis to really cement that well for Donald Trump I think other presidents would be more understanding. Fair enough. Fair enough.
Your your own relations with the president crumbled somewhat. I think it's fair to say since 2019 since you worked for him. What is your kind of stance there now in 2025?
Well, I think many of the policies Trump is pursuing are detrimental to the country, not just internationally, but domestically as well. We we've just had a situation where Trump has taken the US government to have a 10% stake in Intel, the major information technology company. Congress has been on its summer recess. I've only saw a comment from one senator uh on that decision of partial US ownership of a free enterprise company. was Bernie Sanders, the socialist independent who caucuses with Democrats from uh uh Vermont, who thought it was a great idea. Th this is just simply not Republican party philosophy at work.
There was an unusual situation in in recent days where he he said that he knew the feeling. You both have had the FBI at your doors for for different reasons. Investigations are ongoing. What was that moment like on a personal level?
Uh well, I've had more fun, let's put it that way. There's a lot I could say on that subject. I wish I could. Unfortunately, now is not the time or place.
No, I appreciate that. And how long are we are you in London for, Sean?
Well, just a short time to speak to the Bruge Group this evening and have some meetings. Good to have you with us. Thank you for sharing your time on Sky News. Appreciate.