Transcription
Hey guys, my name is Colin and this is Colin Talks Crypto. I just wanted to bring a quick update. Here's what Bitcoin's been doing lately since the bull run top 126K or at least what I think is the top, right?
The price has been consolidating in a series of bearish consolidations. So, we have a giant bare flag that ended up breaking down. I did briefly become bullish above 94.6K, but as soon as it reclaimed back down below that, dropped back down below that 94.6K, 6k support. I reclaimed my bearishness because, you know, you can't have a fixed opinion and if it didn't, it didn't break out. So now that actually looks pretty bad. And it turns out that stance was correct to, you know, be fluid and to pivot back into a bearish stance. And that's when I sold somewhere in here. I sold 100% of my alts. And to this moment, I hold zero alts. And I'm really glad because then we had a series of bearish consolidation patterns that continue to break down. We have a bare pennant here in yellow followed by a bare flag followed by another bare pennant followed by another what appears to be a bare flag forming right now.
And um and I took a look at this through a different lens and tried to think well where's the target? Where's the likely target this could all be and where's an aggressive target so that like I would be happy with the buy. And here's another way to look at it. So let's zoom out. Let's do daily candles here. Maybe we even want to do weekly candles. Let's try weekly candles here. And sorry for all the squiggles and stuff on here. It's just my chart with all sorts of indicators. Um, but it's fairly clean at this point. So, here we are right now. 74,000 uh right here. And um looks like we may be breaking down already from that pattern I just showed you right here. Uh yeah, we're down here now. So, this bare flag has broken down um as expected right now.
Uh the reason I don't think my targets are low enough is because here's two measured TA targets. I'll keep this simple and then we'll end this short little update. If you take the this bare flag right here, let's zoom in a little bit. If you you take this bare flag from here is the flag pole from the bull run top 126k down to here down to 80,500 as the flag pole and then this is the bare flag you know this this bare flag right here the measured move as you see in this teal arrow I just did a measured move down it's uh negative 36% that's the drop okay now the breakout or the breakdown from And that bearish flag would be the same distance of that measured move, 36%. And so where would that bring us? And I took a look at this. And that brings us right down here. And actually, let me let me correct that. Actually, that should be over here. That's interesting. I had it in the wrong spot. Uh the breakdown was right here out of the flag out of that channel, right? So the 36% starts there. And it says that the target would be $57,000. Now, it's possible that could be the bare market bottom. That could be the bare market bottom.
And here's another TA formation. We're going to zoom in a little bit here. So, aside from that massive bare flag, we have more recently. Let's actually go down to like 4hour candles. So, we have the breakdown here and then we have this larger consolidation. And this pattern is about 16%. Okay. Now, a 16% breakdown from the channel that we literally just broke down from. Like before I started recording this video, we weren't below this channel. Here we are. Well, that would bring us down to $63,000. Okay, so both of these again, we have a flag pole and we have a consolidation, a smaller flag pole and consolidation inside of a larger flag pole and consolidation. And each has their own targets on different time frames. like this would be a shorter term target perhaps, you know, followed by a bounce. This would be a longer term target, perhaps the bare market bottom. I don't know, right? Nobody does for sure, but this is pretty close to where the 200E moving averages. And um so it doesn't seem too off to me to be honest. I mean, it could go lower for sure, but that's definitely a target to be looking at.
If I pull some of the chart data back over onto the screen and say, okay, so what support ranges next to that 63,000 range? And I think that I mean even like right here like 65,000 is a pretty good support range and that's where I'm kind of deciding to set my targets uh between this and this. So um 63,400 right there horizontally is where I think a shortterm target could be. A good one could be aggressive enough that if it triggers there should be a sizable bounce and not so conservative like up here before I had 70,500 which is really not much below this consolidation. It doesn't allow for this flag pole breakdown to happen in the correct measured size. I'm going to consider this target of um what is it again? 63,400 right here to be um no longer valid sometime after like November 12th. So give it a little more time like another uh 8 day another week, another at least another week to to fulfill that breakdown because there could be another series of little mini small consolidations in the broader breakdown here. Usually things don't just move in one motion. Like if you zoom in on the 4-hour candles, then you see what I drew here. These are the 4-hour candles. You see these mini bare penants culminating in this bare flag. And then this is what's breaking down now. But you go to the day candles and you don't really see these. They get blended in. But they're happening. They're just happening on smaller time frames. And so I think that that could continue in some form on the way down to perhaps 63,400. So that's where I've got my target right now. Um the game is still on. It's just got a deeper target and a little bit more time allowed to let that happen. So now instead of November 4th expiring, I'm going to be open to this trade occurring all the way till um November 12th at least. But um I would not let it go beyond like November I don't know 16th. Like that would be the absolute cutoff. Um cuz again I'm going for a velocity of drop. Like if this drop continues in this velocity, then there's a stronger chance of a rebound than if it was to go sideways and take, you know, a month and a half to get down here. Well, then it could just be bleeding. You know, it's not going to necessarily have much of a counterforce bounce because it's just bleeding slowly. Like the worst kind of drop is a slow grind down because there's not really much of a bounce. But you get a fast move down, then you can get usually a fast trigger move back up at least part of the way back. And that's what this trade is trying to capture. Sort of a short-term trade in that regard. Like what do I really want to see happen? What would what would be a really good target? And I think that this analysis gives me a more realistic view. So wishing me luck.
Um oh, I should give you the ETH target as well. So again, for Bitcoin, 63,400 is kind of where my target is up until the 12th of February, maximum the 16th of February. And then as far as Ethereum goes, it's really just a multiple of that. Like um a bigger percentage drop. So that would put us down here at 1706 is where I set the target. You see right above this as like support. 1706 is exactly what I've set the buy limit at. And that's a bigger percent drop than we had for B uh BTC. So 167 1706. So that's like a 20% drop from where we're at right now. It looks like it's breaking down in real time. Um, and then for for Bitcoin from where we're at now to get to the uh 63400 target, it would be about a 13% drop and a greater percent drop for Ethereum from where we're at right now, 20%. Okay, so that's the new numbers. Wish me luck, guys. Again, real money. Don't want to screw it up. And if I'm wrong and these targets don't get met, like that's okay. It's okay. Like I'm okay not entering a trade. Like I don't have I don't have to be in a trade. And I think that's an important mindset. I am okay to be in a trade that looks good, you know, with good parameters, but um I'd be beating myself up if I took a trade on and then regretted it right after it happened. And I've done that a lot before. So, I'm trying to be, you know, I'm setting very strict targets for myself in terms of time and price, but I want it to be juicy. As I say, I want it to be juicy.