Transcription
Hello, it's Liot. So, we're meeting in a different video style than usual. Today, what I simply wanted to do is take you with me into the office and have us go analyze the markets together and see what we can expect for Q4 2025. Let's look a bit at the current situation. Uh, so we'll cover the indices, we'll cover the bonds, commodities, the crypto market, uh, the FX market, notably the dollar, and the overall macroeconomic situation. I'll try to simplify this as much as possible, but really to do, in fact, a global recap and a bit of a search to see where we stand. I've also taken some notes so I don't forget anything in my elaboration. And so with that, I think let's get straight to the heart of the matter. So, what is the current situation? The current situation is risk-on, meaning that assets, almost all of them, are at all-time highs. Okay? So we just have here the S&P 500 which today just closed at a new all-time high. So here, investors are in full risk-on mode, meaning they want to take risks, so they are buying American stocks. Same for the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ is pumping very hard, Dow Jones, we even have the Russell 2000 which is reaching new all-time highs. So globally, a risk-on movement on the indices. The indices are currently reaching new all-time highs. At the commodity level, it's a bit the same thing. Okay? So, meaning, we have gold and silver which are pumping massively. So here again, gold is at new all-time highs. We had a big breakout, if we look at the daily, we had a big breakout in August 2025. Following that, gold completely exploded, a +13% on gold. I remind you that for a commodity like gold, that's a lot. Uh, and then at the bond level, we are seeing yields, so the yields, uh, decreasing. If we look at the daily, hop, we can see uh the yields which are decreasing. So the yields, I remind you, are the return on bonds. Uh, so here, you'll have the different different economies. But if we are particularly interested in the United States, we see yields decreasing, which are currently the US Treasury yields, so the yield on 10-year bonds at 4.08%. I remind you, we had reached 5% at the highs. So, that's currently the situation. Now, uh, what does that mean? What is the current impact? So we see bond yields decreasing because the Fed, at its last meeting in September, already lowered its interest rates and is expected to continue lowering its interest rates. So if interest rates decrease, we tend to see the yields on bonds of that same economy also decrease. Okay? Now, if yields decrease, it simply means that access to money, that is interest rates or yields, is interchangeable in a way. If these yields, these interest rates decrease, access to money becomes easier, becomes cheaper. And that's actually how an economy, well, how a central bank stimulates an economy. Okay? So this economic stimulation causes this movement, okay, on stock indices, on gold. And globally, if we look right here, hop, we have in purple here the M2 Money Supply, okay, global, we can see this increase in liquidity. So, meaning, there is more and more money in circulation. I invite you to open in a new tab the video that appears here on precisely the M2 Money Supply and understand liquidity in the markets. But so, in short, we have an increase in liquidity which translates into money entering the indices markets, commodities, but also crypto. So currently, we are in a mood, I want to say, a bit euphoric. The yields we are seeing are extremely strong on stock indices, and we are in a situation where, basically, investors see everything as good news. That is, if we see, generally speaking, good growth in the US, so this can be through GDP, it can be through PMIs, it can even be through employment figures. So figures that are higher than expected, that are better. People will see that as something positive and will invest in indices, in the S&P, in the Nasdaq, and so on. Conversely, if we have bad figures, the thing is, they will also see it as good news because they think that this will cause the Fed's rates to decrease and therefore bring liquidity back to the market and thus boost risk assets. And that's a bit of the thing we are seeing right now where the Fed, let's say, has gunpowder left to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy which honestly doesn't need it that much currently, even if we have the first, let's say, slightly negative signs on employment. That's precisely why Jerome Powell decided to cut interest rates in September 2025. But so, currently, we are in a situation where if employment continues to deteriorate, obviously it's negative. However, it's seen as positive because the Fed will, let's say, more actively want to lower its interest rates to stimulate the economy, and that will therefore make the S&P rebound, that will make the Nasdaq rebound upwards. So for me, currently, my big plays for these last 6 months have been a big Nasdaq buy which was executed in early April. You can see that this Nasdaq buy is currently over 40% in profit. So let's say this big risk-on movement we are seeing where the risk appetite continues to increase, people continue to make upward bets and so on, this is a movement I've been riding since the beginning of the year and especially since April. So that's the first thing. And the second thing I'm actively riding is precisely the decrease in yields, the decrease in yields by buying bonds. This is something I shared with you in my monthly performance videos where I simply explained that I was buying 20-year US bonds because I expected rates to fall. If rates fall, the value of bonds increases. So, in short, I am in big profit on that and big profit on my trade on the indices. I remind you at the end of last year, I made you a video on my crazy predictions for the stock market in 2025 and remember at the end of 2024, we had the first rate cuts from the Fed. So many people were predicting a recession or at least a bear market for 2025. And personally, for 2025, I was bullish. I'm showing you this >> that many finance gurus were predicting an imminent crisis in 2025 because we ended 2024 with a rate cut, similar to the situation in 2008, similar to the situation before the 2000 crisis. I'm also explaining this video to see all the statistics around Fed rate cuts historically. Well, personally, I am not expecting a negative year at all. I am not expecting a financial crisis for 2025 at all, and I am bullish. I am a buyer on US stock indices and generally global ones because there are strong correlations now in this life. >> So there, I explained that to you step by step. I invite you to check out that video, my crazy predictions for the stock market in 2025, where I explained why I was bullish for 2025. But so, my plan has been executed exactly as I wanted, and so I am still bullish for 2025, and therefore the reason why I am really riding this big movement and well, I am making a lot of money on these few big plays on which I entered aggressively. So that's the situation with the indices. Now, I'd like to share the dollar situation with you. Uh, the dollar which is in a very particular situation, and we potentially have an opportunity on the dollar. So, uh, the dollar has been, smashed, meaning it has lost a lot of value. If we look for this year, uh, let's see, let's see, let's see, 2025, we are right here from January, we are here. Bam! The dollar is basically down 10% for the year 2025, which is a lot, as you know, for a currency. And currently, we are seeing the first signs of a renewed appetite, let's say, for the dollar. And so, what is this situation? So in September, we had the FOMC meeting. FOMC meeting which gave us the Summary of Economic Projections, which gave us the Fed's dot plot. So the Fed's dot plot will simply tell us what they expect in terms of future interest rates. So the Fed for 2025, so at its rate cut in September and from what it tells us for 2025. So currently, rates are at 4.25%. Okay? And for 2025, this is the rate at which they expect to end. So more or less 3.75%. Knowing that we are at 4.25, that would mean two cuts of 25 basis points. So, in short, the Fed expects two more cuts in 2025. That's what they expect. And now for 2026, as you can see, the median, more or less, is around 3.5, let's say 3.4. But so, that means the Fed expects two cuts in 2025 and only one cut in 2026. So that's what the Fed announced during the FOMC on September 17th. However, the markets are pricing in something quite different. Okay? So you can see for the next meeting which will take place on October 29th, 2025, there is a 96% probability of a rate cut. We can see for December 2025, it is expected that rates will be at 3.7%, knowing that we are currently at 4.25%, that means two rate cuts. So here we have the Fed with its dot plot which tells us it thinks there will be two rate cuts in 2025, and the futures market. So these are the probabilities that are being priced by the futures market, it's something I explain in more detail in my accelerator and so on. But so, here we have investors who have a view that is equal, that is similar to the Fed's. Very good. Now, however, for 2026, I explained to you that the dot plot we have here shows a pricing of one rate cut for 2026. However, traders and investors on the futures market expect us to reach 3%, knowing that we would end at 3.7%, that would mean three cuts of 25 basis points for 2026. Okay? So, meaning, market participants have a more dovish view, meaning more bearish on rates than the Fed itself. But so, obviously on that day, which was September 17th, 2025, when the Fed shared precisely this dot plot, well, we can go and see September 17th, bam, you can see it was precisely this dollar rebound. Why? Because ultimately, everyone expected that the pricing was three rate cuts for 2026, but in the end, the Fed announced that according to them, there should only be one. So obviously that reduced the bearish bets, the dovish bets on the dollar, and let's say the bearish bets on the dollar were so aggressive that in the end, it was very simple to create a reversal. So, meaning, this pessimism on the dollar was completely priced in. I invite you to check out this video on my channel, Learn Fundamental Analysis in Trading from A to Z, to fully understand what is called a forward-looking mechanism. So, meaning, here a beginner trader would see that on September 17th, on the day of the FOMC, the Fed cut its rates by 25 basis points, and yet the dollar gained value. It's strange, but no, it's not strange because as I said, we went into this meeting with a set of expectations for what would happen in the future, and in the end, these expectations were revised and are less dovish. So with rates potentially falling less than what is currently priced. Now, in addition to that, so in addition to the FOMC situation, and by the way, the reason why they are lowering rates is because of the labor market. The labor market which is becoming a bit fragile, and therefore to support it, they are lowering interest rates to ensure, and that's the job of a central bank, to ensure that growth and inflation are well managed. And in the growth space, we have the employment space. Okay? Now, if we look from a technical point of view at the dollar, so as I explained, we potentially have reasons to believe that the bearish bets on the dollar are a bit too aggressive compared to what could happen. Now, from a purely technical point of view, we can see since 2011 this bullish trendline on the dollar with this third touch. We also have this counter-trendline which corresponds perfectly. You can see here that we had a big rebound precisely in July, a correction in August, and here it's a bit of uncertainty. We don't really know where to position ourselves. Uh, as I explained, we saw this bullish movement following the FOMC on September 17th, and currently what everyone is waiting for are the NFP figures which come out tomorrow as I'm making this video. Uh, so the US employment figures, because as I explained, the big question is whether the Fed will continue to lower its rates or not. The only reason they are lowering their rates is because we have seen small cracks, signs of weakness in the labor market. So now, if the employment figures come out much better than expected, well, knowing that we are currently pricing in, I remind you, three rate cuts for 2026 while the Fed only signals one, well, let's say we have a big dovish bet that can be revised. And so, in the end, perhaps if, and this is precisely what leads me to what I wanted to tell you, which is your Friday, Friday, which is Friday. We have the NFP, non-farm payroll, so US employment figures, as well as the unemployment rate, which are released. We expect 50,000 new jobs created for the month, with a minimum of -20,000, a maximum of +100,000, and the latest figures gave us 22,000 new jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain neutral, so flat compared to the previous month. The previous month, we were at 4.3%, we expect 4.3% again, and a maximum of 4.4%. So my view here is that for the dollar to continue its fall, okay? For the dollar to continue this downward fall, we would need to see negative but very negative employment figures. Okay? Because again, what is priced in currently is, so two more rate cuts for 2025 and three rate cuts for 2026, which is completely different from what the Fed expects. Okay? And so, for us to expect four rate cuts now in 2026, there would really need to be an NFP surprise, but absolutely gigantic, absolutely monumental, that we lose at least 100,000 new jobs, or rather 100,000 jobs lost, and I really don't see that happening. Whereas a small positive surprise in US employment, where in the end employment is not doing too badly, well, it could lead to a repricing of these expectations of three rate cuts in 2026 and potentially lower them to only two. Okay. But so, that would have a completely positive movement on the dollar. So for me, currently, we potentially have a risk asymmetry on the dollar where we have, let's say, more upside risk than downside risk. So if I were to be positioned on the dollar currently, especially given the current valuations, having lost 10% on the year, I would be more bullish dollar than bearish dollar. In addition to that, if we look at the unweighted dollar index, which is right here, okay? So this is a formula I use to, in short, remove, if you will, the volumes because dxy, in fact, what happens is that we will have, in short, if you want, wait, I'll make it simple for you, dxy will be more or less 1 divided by euro dollar, you see that it's more or less euro dollar, well, the inverse of euro dollar, but because euro dollar is where you have the most volume. Uh, so, in short, to remove the volumes, if you will, well, we use unweighted dollar index. In short, on the unweighted index, you can see that the dollar is on its major support which is holding. And now, if we go to a shorter timeframe, we had this small counter-trendline which was broken. We are currently seeing a retest, and so there you go, by the way, for people who say I'm trashing technical analysis and saying it's useless and so on, I hope you understand that technical analysis has its place, especially for timing certain entries, but it's not what will give you the overall direction. Again, if we go back to my expectations for the stock market for 2025 and therefore my big plays, my big buys on the S&P, on the Nasdaq, when I tell you about big plays on the SP, on the Nasdaq, on my bond purchases with falling yields and so on, I'm talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit for my pocket in 2025. All of that doesn't come from technical analysis. Okay? Perhaps the execution, the entry, yes, it's timed more with technical analysis, but technical analysis alone unfortunately will not make you profitable. In short, that brings me to the other thing I wanted to talk to you about, which was the crypto market. The crypto market, more precisely Bitcoin. So similarly, we saw a very strong rally, a very strong rally on Bitcoin. Uh, we are currently entering a period of extremely strong seasonality for Bitcoin. Uh, I'll share that with you right here. Uh, so as you can see, the month of October right here, October is historically the strongest month for Bitcoin. This is called October. Okay. Uh, so I am personally bullish on Bitcoin. Similarly, something I was able to share with you. In fact, for me, risk assets are bullish for 2025, and on this end of 2025, it's really where, especially on crypto, especially on Bitcoin, where we should see these big bullish movements, and uh, and notably, I was able to make my additions in April on Bitcoin. Since then, it's going very well. We had this kind of small double top right here. We had this reversal up to here, I did nothing. We had this drop, okay, in mid-September, a drop that I was able to buy with a leveraged trade. I had an addition that was a bit lower, I got stopped out. Afterwards, I was able to re-enter a trade with a stop that was behind the previous lows. And this time, it's going extremely well. I'm at over 4.7 R. I took half a risk off it, but this is just a leveraged position in addition to my spot positions for Bitcoin. And I hope you understand that I've been bullish for a long time. And this trade, basically, is just to add a bit of volume following a cascade of liquidations we saw, and upstream of the famous October, precisely where you can see that this month of October until November 8th, let's say, is a period of extremely strong seasonality for Bitcoin. We have a higher probability of seeing a bullish Bitcoin than a bearish Bitcoin. Now, that brings me to my exit from the bull run. Because for me, we are at the end of a cycle rather than the beginning of a cycle. I remind you, but if we look from the lows on Bitcoin, we are at a total return of 688%. Okay? So entering now is entering at the end of a cycle. I want you to understand that. So for me, we are arriving at this end of cycle, which means that since Bitcoin is an extremely cyclical asset, personally, for me, in my fund's strategy, I plan to significantly take profits at this end of cycle. And this end of cycle, so my theory has always been that it ends in Q4 2025. Q4 2025 because historically on Bitcoin, we have these 4-year cycles. Okay? So if we go into logarithm, we have these 4-year cycles. If we go and look right here, it will be more obvious. Let's take January 1st to December 31st. Bam. So you can see we have positive. So we have it right here, positive, positive, positive, negative year 2014, positive, positive, positive, negative year, positive, positive, positive, negative year, positive, positive, positive for 2025 and 2026, negative year. Okay, this is the cycle we've seen repeat. Now, this same cycle, we have something striking. This is not something I invented myself, it's something that is quite popular on Twitter, many people have noticed it. That is, if we take the bottom of each Bitcoin bearish movement and advance 1064 days, okay, that brings us to the next top. We take the low, 1064 days, that brings us to the next top. We take the low, 1064 days, 1064 days, that brings us to October 20th. Okay? October 20th. So by taking this theory, let's say, very basic and straightforward, which has worked on all previous cycles, the end of the bull market should arrive on October 20th, 2025. Thank you, goodbye. Okay, so that's theory number 1, and I want to say everything will depend on Bitcoin's performance until the end of October. So here, the beginning of October, so October, as I told you, starts extremely strong, extremely well. So great, I expect us to reach new all-time highs. The top, I have no idea where it will be. Okay, I'm talking in terms of price. And so as you can see, October 20th is this blue line. And then, in terms of seasonality, in terms of seasonality, I won't go through all the fuss, but basically, if we just take the years that are at the end of cycles and look at the tops and seasonalities in this way, we can see a top arriving between, so either October 20th, November 30th, and a maximum of January 7th, okay, with certain medians, certain averages. So, basically, this big gray box that you see, for me, is the end of the bull run if we see this bull run end in Q4 2025. Why am I saying if we see it in Q4 2025, why do I potentially expect something else? Because all the previous cycles we've seen, these 4-year cycles, it doesn't come out of nowhere, let's say. So, well, this precise 1064-day thing is indeed quite particular. But otherwise, it's these 4-year cycles, it doesn't come from nowhere, it comes from macroeconomic reasons and it comes from what we call the business cycle. And the business cycle can be seen on the ISM PMI. Okay? And so you can see this cyclicity on the PMIs which gives us precisely these cycles. Okay? And so if we look, I remind you, hop, right here, wait, I'll do it again. Hop, we have so 2014 which is a negative year, 2018 which is a negative year, so a reversal year, okay, on this cycle. 2022 negative year, it was the same, 2022 on stock indices. Uh, well, right here in gray, I've put them, these years, okay? So 2014, you can see that precisely, it's the end of this cycle, it's the top of this cycle. Uh, I'll, wait, hop, I'll put it in red, it will be easier to see. Hop. So we saw the first big Bitcoin returns precisely with an increase in ISM PMIs. I remind you, PMI is Purchasing Managers Index. And so, simply in macroeconomics, it's what's called a leading indicator. So this tends to lead the economy and very simply show us, in short, precisely this business cycle that we tend to have. In short, we had this first pump on Bitcoin followed precisely by this negative year with this reversal of PMIs. Then we had the same rise, then again 2008 arrives, we have this negative movement on Bitcoin. Okay? Then, we have again this rise, then we arrive in 2022 with this negative year on PMIs and on Bitcoin. And then what we should see is this, with, well, again, this reversal and our famous 4-year cycle. Okay? The only problem is that right here, you can see that the PMI, the ISM PMI, well, again, right here, I've put a red line, it's the limit, let's say, between an expanding economy and a contracting economy. So every time the ISM PMI goes below 50, meaning the economy is in a situation of economic contraction. Above 50, it's economic expansion. Okay? So, we had this drop, especially during 2022. Very good. Uh, this 2022 drop was caused by, I remind you, the rise in interest rates in the US. So if we look at this right here, we can see 2022, okay, we have all economies increasing their interest rates. The reason they had increased these interest rates was because inflation was too high, and therefore they increase interest rates to calm an economy, calm inflation. But so, obviously, it hurts the economy, it hurts the ISM PMI which is falling. But so, we are starting a new bullish cycle. The only, the only small problem, in a way, is that the Fed took much longer to cut, to lower its interest rates. Okay. But so, this cycle has been extended. This cycle has been extended, and so for me, the risk I see currently is that potentially this 4-year cycle that we've seen repeat over the last three cycles could be shifted a bit just because the Fed is starting to cut rates a bit later than expected, and so, well, arriving later, let's say, instead of arriving for, let's say, this end of cycle, so Q4 2025, it could perhaps arrive in Q1 2026 or Q2 2026 because, as I explained, we haven't really seen this economic expansion arrive yet, which could come after the two, the two following rate cuts for 2025 that we will see. And so, this cycle could extend precisely into 2026. Uh, so we will have to watch all macroeconomic indicators very closely. We will also have to watch, uh, the evolution, uh, of Bitcoin, very closely to see precisely at what valuation we arrive. And I remind you, my way of seeing things is, I have no idea of the top. Firstly, I have no idea of the top, but I manage my exposure to cryptos, to indices, and so on, in terms of percentage of my overall portfolio. So I'll give you an example. When we were at the end of 2024, so right here, when Bitcoin reached $100,000 for the first time, I was able to sell Bitcoin, not because for me we had reached the top, not at all, but just because, on this, well, on this same period, let's say, from September to the end of 2025, we saw a 100% return in literally 3-4 months. Okay? 100% in 3-4 months, that obviously caused my Bitcoin exposure to explode. So I have too much money in Bitcoin. So I withdraw, I take profits because I'm not comfortable, I'm not comfortable having, let's say, such a large position of my portfolio in Bitcoin, especially after making 100% in 4 months. I hope you understand. And at that moment, people will think, oh, Liot is selling because they think it's the end of the bull run. No, not at all. It's just that this is called portfolio rebalancing. So you rebalance your portfolio. And by the way, afterwards, I was able to, so add in April these profits that I had been able to remove because by then my exposure had decreased, and I was able to generate more money, and therefore have more money elsewhere, and so my crypto exposure as a percentage was less important. Anyway, and to finish, under this video, I will put the link to this series of videos which was the trading reset. This one, this one, this one, which are probably the most important videos for your trading. Especially this one, 45 minutes to become a pro trader, let's say everything about fundamental macroeconomic analysis so that you truly understand what it takes, let's say, to be a trader, to be a professional trader, to be able to make a living from it. Uh, so with that, go check it out in the comments. Let me know also in the comments, if you like this slightly different video style than usual. So, this was Iliot. Ciao.