Transcription
Championship week is finally here. Pete Nova with Player Profiler. I'm back today with my defensive rankings for week 17 to help you win your fantasy football matchups.
Now, normally I drop this video weekly over at the Faceoff Sports Network, but I was asked to sub in here at Player Profiler for Chev and Jeremiah. So, I'm bringing the content here this week, and you are in luck, right? I am not just some guy that's subbing in for a video this week to make sure we put out content. If there's one thing that I do extremely well in the fantasy football content space, it's DST rankings and streamers videos on a week-by-week basis. It is my niche. I am very, very good at it. I will pat myself on the back. I've got you covered this week. We've had an awesome start to the fantasy football playoffs the last two weeks. We're hoping to carry this momentum over to week 17 to help you win your matchups and bring home the hardware.
Let's take a look at the first tier here, and it's going to be the elite no risk tier. And I know what you're thinking, Pete. There are no guarantees in fantasy football. How are you going to sit here and say no risk? And honestly, this is the closest thing that you're going to get to a sure thing when it comes to defenses this week in fantasy football.
Let's start with the Denver Broncos. The Denver Broncos are playing a Kansas City team that's coming off of a short week and is going to be starting a third string quarterback, um, with a depleted offensive line and possibly no Rashi Rice. Denver's going to push for points in this game too, right? That's going to force Kansas City to have to throw, and that should lead to some sacks and some turnovers, which we love in fantasy football. So, Denver is a smash matchup, especially coming off of a tough game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, right? This is a get-right game for this defense. Um, and I think Denver's going to come out and they're going to smash in this matchup here.
Then, let's look over at the next one. And you have the New England Patriots here at number two. They play the New York Jets. And I wouldn't be, I wouldn't fault anybody for saying I'd rather play the Patriots over the Jets because look, the Jets don't have Andy Reid at least calling plays where you know the, the, the Chiefs do, right? So maybe you prefer the Patriots, and that's fine. But I, this is how I have it ordered. The New England Patriots though, they play a Jets defense or a Jets offense that right now over the last five weeks is giving up the third most points to opposing defenses in fantasy, right? And so it's five games, 22 sacks, two fumble recoveries, and eight interceptions. They're taking on Brady Cook, who's looked absolutely terrible. I got to be honest with you. Now, those were two road games. He gets to come home, and that's a little bit easier. But those were also road games indoors and in warm weather in Jacksonville. So, he's coming back, and I don't know if you know, but the weather in the Northeast has not been very good. So, this is an awesome play. And similar to the Denver Broncos, the Patriots should push for points, forcing the Jets to have to throw it and give us some turnovers and some sacks.
Now, let's take a look at the next tier. And this is going to be the high upside tier, and it's starting off with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers take on Shador Sanders and a Browns team that just lost Quinn Sean Judkins. Now, the Browns are at home in this one, but this is a familiar opponent for the Steelers, right? The Steelers get to play a divisional opponent. They've already saw Shador Sanders or at least they've already seen the Pittsburgh Steelers, and you know that bodes well, uh, for Mike Tomlin. They know this offense very well, right? The run game should struggle possibly a little bit, and it's going to be an all-out, you know, I think it's going to be an all-out brawl. It's going to be a gross game. Low point total, and we have high upside here. The Steelers defense, you know, while they've had their their question marks and their concerns, Steelers defense has been very, very good for for for fantasy football just, you know, over the course of this season. So, Steelers there at number three, I really, really like the play there.
Then I had the Houston Texans at four. Consensus has them at five and the Lions at four. But I prefer the Houston Texans. They take on the Chargers. And look, I get it. You might say, "Well, the Lions get to play Max Bromer while the Texans have to play Justin Herbert." But Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense have given up a lot of points opposing defenses. Right now, this past week against the Cowboys, they gave up zero sacks, zero turnovers, and and Justin Herbert was on fire. Right. But this is a much, much harder matchup here when you factor in that they're taking on a Texans defense that's arguably the best in the NFL. And that front is going to likely manhandle that Chargers team. And you know, I, I just, I'm gonna go with the defense that has been phenomenal all year, right? And is has got still a good matchup in my opinion against the Chargers over the Lions who the Lions, look, they had a good matchup, too. They get Max Bromer and the Vikings have been very, very good to allowing points opposing defenses as well. So, I wouldn't fault anybody for wanting to play against the Minnesota Vikings, uh, offense, right? I mean, the, the problem is is Max Brosmer looked somewhat competent, okay, when he had to come in last week, uh, you know, in relief of JJ McCarthy. And look, we all remember how bad he looked against Seattle, but that was in Seattle. And that was also in a against an amazing defense, right? The, the Lions defense doesn't come close to the, the, the, uh, the, the, uh, Seattle Seahawks defense, right? I mean, so the Lions defense is closer to the Giants defense than they are closer to the, the Seattle Seahawks defense. And the Lions defense is missing players in the secondary. I'm not going to sit here and tell you it's not a bad, it's not a good play. They're in the high upside tier for a reason here at five, but I just prefer the Lions more.
Then we look at the Rams. I have the Rams here at six. And the Rams take on a Falcons team that, you know, look, the Falcons offense has looked better as of late with Kurt Cousins. [clears throat] They have Drake London back, but look, this is a team in the Falcons that can take sacks, can turn over the football, and I think the Rams match up well here, right? The Rams have over the course of the last five weeks have gi taken or you know generated 10 sacks and seven forced interceptions, um, you know, in the last five weeks. But when I look at it here, the, the Rams are going to push points. Same thing, same concept. They're going to push points forcing the Falcons to have to throw the football more in my opinion. And it's going to have to force Kirk Cousins to get the ball out quick or take some, take some sacks, right? And, uh, and, and possibly some turnovers here. So, I like the Rams defense. And I like them more than the Seattle Seahawks, who I actually have ranked next in the next tier as a good floor team, right? And consensus has Seattle ahead of the Rams. And look, Seattle is taking on a Panthers team that's giving up the eighth least amount of points to opposing defenses in fantasy, right? And they've struggled a little bit defensively, only generating two sacks over the last three weeks, right? And this is a Panthers team in with Bryce Young that look, they have not given up many turnovers over the last five weeks. I mean, I could see this being a very tight game. They've only given up three turnovers over the last five weeks, and Seattle's got to travel cross country for this game. And I think honestly, this could be a, a again, a high floor play. I don't think the ceiling is as high. I get it. When you think about the Seattle Seahawks, you sit there and say, Pete, they've had high upside all season long. How are you going to say they don't have that much upside? I just don't think the Panthers are allowing for that upside as much. And sure, Seattle can go out there any given week and and give us a really big game, and it's certainly possible, but I'm not banking on it this week against the Panthers. So, that's why I have the Rams, uh, you know, ahead of the Seattle Seahawks this week. They are still a good DFS play. And if you do like DFS, you should check out our DFS Dominator right here at Player Profiler. Let's put our hoodie on and let's talk about Player Profiler's DFS Dominator. It has a cash game optimizer that leverages the projections from Billy and Bradley and Evan and that Player Profiler AI engine to create cash game lineups that certainly have a high floor, but also give you that ceiling. Now, you've probably heard about the most powerful tool of all, our lineup genius. We know winning GPPs requires a completely different approach, which is why our lineup genius takes you through the process of selecting the quarterbacks in the juiciest matchups. Then it highlights the stacks and runbacks that are available. Lets you pick the chalk level. Lets you pick the level of correlation with a number of other proprietary settings available to you. Click a button and it generates hundreds of lineups to be imported into FanDuel and DraftKings. And it's just $45 a year. Not a week, a year. So go fight fire with fire with a Player Profiler at DFS Dominator.
All right. Well, let's keep things moving, folks. The next defense in this tier is going to be the New York Giants. I have the Giants ranked at an eight here, a little higher than consensus. They take on the Raiders, who are giving up the second most points over the last five weeks to opposing defenses. They'll likely going to give up some yards here, the Giants. I mean, the running defense has been really, really bad this year. Um, but it's really about the sacks and the turnovers, and this is a really good matchup for this defensive front when it comes to the pass rush against Gino Smith. This offensive line has struggled a lot this year at protecting him. And I think they're going to struggle again here. I think Gino is going to take some sacks. He's gonna, you know, you know, give up some turnovers, and that should give us a solid upside here with the New York Giants. So that's why I have them ranked where I do.
Then I have [snorts] the Dallas Cowboys here at number nine, and I have Dallas ranked higher than than many people would expect, right? I have Dallas at nine. And the reason being is look, we're unsure who the quarterback is going to be for the Washington Commanders. It could be Marcus Mariota, who just got stitches in his hand. It could be Jeff Driscoll, who got called up from the practice squad. It's definitely not going to be Jaden Daniels. We know that, right? And it's going to be a short week, right? This is a short week. It's a banged up Marcus Mariota or it's a practice squad Jeff Driscoll who hasn't had many reps with the ones. And then you factor in the, that that the Cowboys offense can put up a lot of points. This is a terrible defense in the Washington Commanders. The Cowboys are going to put up points, and it's going to force them to have Jeff Driscoll or Mariota push the football downfield, which could lead to some sacks and some turnovers. There is a lot of upside in this play here. I think the Cowboys can be a really sneaky play. I think they have top five potential this week. And I know it sounds crazy because the defense is not very good. It's going to be a big factor of is Quinnon Williams gonna play in this game. They had some players banged up last week for the Cowboys, but I, I mean, even if those guys miss, I think that's a really, really nice play this week. And the Commanders, one thing that they've done lately is they've leaned on the run game. I think they're going to have to get out of that leaning on the run game here because the Cowboys are going to push them for points and make them throw the football. So, I think it's a really, really great matchup here for the Dallas Cowboys. So, I have them ranked rather high here at number nine.
And then I have the Saints here at 10. Look, Saints defense has been really, really good over the last couple weeks. They take on the Tennessee Titans, and the Titans are giving up the ninth lowest points to opposing defenses in fantasy. I think it's a good floor play, but you know, Cam Ward is not turning the football over very much. It's a solid run game, right? I think this is going to be a game where they're not going to put the ball in in harm's way that much. And I think it's going to be a game where Cam Ward and the offense is going to run the football a ton and, uh, and, and not take him any sacks. The ceiling is just not there nearly as much for the Saints like we saw last week. But if you did play them last week, I did have them ranked number two, right? You felt really, really good and you came away feeling awesome, uh, out of that game.
Then I have the Tampa Buccaneers here at 11. I get it. Look, they're playing Quinn Yurs and and a bad quarterback situation, but the Buccaneers defense has been a shell of itself over the last, you know, couple, I mean, pretty much the, the last half of the season here. I mean, the secondary has been banged up. They've lost players, and they just flat out aren't playing good, which is really uncharacteristic for Todd Bowles in general. Um, you would think he'd be getting the most out of this defense, and he's just not right now. Um, but the Buccaneers, I have him here at 11. Um, they play a Dolphins team that I think is going to, you know, run the football a ton, and the defense for the Dolphins has been good enough where they can keep the game close, which will put them the Dolphins in a positive game script in terms of running the football, right? So, I think, you know, it'll be close enough where, you know, the, the, there's not going to be as much opportunity for the Bucks to cash in on turnovers and sacks, uh, like we would hope against a, a rookie quarterback in Quinn.
Then I have the Green Bay Packers here at 12. This is a nice floor play, right? Probably no Lamar Jackson. It's likely going to be Huntley. And, you know, you're really hoping for some sacks and them to really just hold down, uh, this running game with Derrick Henry. I don't think the ceiling is that high, but still, I think the ceiling is is solid, but it's really a floor play here for me this week. Um, I think, you know, with the Packers, their run-heavy script, um, I don't think it's going to push for the Ravens to have to score a bunch of points, and the Ravens defense has been better. So, I think this game stays tighter and it forces them to or allows them to run the football, which maybe doesn't give us as much turnovers and sacks, uh, with Huntley there at the quarterback position.
Let's move over to the next tier. And the next tier is the living on a prayer tier, right? This is a tier that look, the four defenses here, I could see a world where they end up having a top 12 week. Um, you know, you're just really, really putting your hands together and praying. Um, you know, that some of their playmakers come to play. The Jacksonville Jaguars I have there at 13, and you know, they play the Kansas City, uh, they play the Colts, and you know, people are saying to themselves, yeah, I mean, this is a great matchup. They play the Colts, old man Rivers, you know, they should be a really, really nice play, but over the last five weeks, they've only taken five sacks, this Colts team. Now, they did give up the defensive touchdown, you know, to the 49ers, which kind of salvaged a lot of their day with the 49ers. But, you know, Rivers is getting the ball out quick, and I think they're going to lean on the run game. You know, Jacksonville could push points and and force the, uh, the Colts to have to throw it, but I don't think Rivers is going to make many mistakes, and it could be Philip Rivers. That's why I'm saying this because technically the Colts are not eliminated. I don't know if it's going to be Riley Leonard. If it is Riley Leonard, yeah, absolutely. The, the, the Jaguars should be in play to be in that high upside tier, um, you know, as like a, a top eight to maybe even a top five play. You could make the argument, but I'm operating on the fact that Philip Rivers is going to play in this one. We'll hear more news, but that's one to monitor there. If they're available, maybe stash them. If you can afford to hold them with another defense, stash them and, uh, and see what news comes out who's going to end up being the starting quarterback in that matchup.
Now looking at the, uh, the Vikings here at 14. Look, the Vikings have ran hot, right? They've been on a heater, but I think the heater stops here. They play a Lions team that's allowing, you know, uh, not many, uh, points to opposing defense over the last five weeks. Just the sixth lowest amount of points to opposing defenses in fantasy. Um, I don't think the Vikings come out here and, and continue their momentum. So, I, that's why I have them ranked where I do.
Then you saw the Cleveland Browns there at 16. I'm higher on consensus than many. There's a possibility no DK Metcalf in this matchup here, um, which would limit the options there. Again, familiar opponents, um, you know, with this Steelers team, maybe Miles Garrett. I have Miles Garrett in the graphic there. You're just hoping that Miles Garrett comes to play. He's going for the sack record. There's only two games left in the season. Um, and we've seen Miles Garrett turn it on in this matchup against the Steelers. So, you got to hope that they do it again.
I did skip over the Los Angeles Chargers there at 15. So, let's take a little backtrack there. Chargers defense has been really, really good. Um, honestly, you could sit there and convince me that they're a nice floor play this week and I should bump them up higher. Um, but the problem is that the, the ten, that the Texans are 32nd when it comes to points allowed to opposing defenses in fantasy right now over the last five weeks. They've given up just six sacks in five games, zero fumble recoveries, and one interception. They have played much, much better. And kudos to this offense. That's why I don't have the Chargers higher. Um, I don't think the ceiling is there for the Chargers defense, but I think they're an okay floor play and, and you're just living on a prayer that the defense just comes and shows up like they have week over week. Um, and they've been really, really good. Honestly, it's a, it's a, it's a defense that hasn't really, it's a team that hasn't really been talked about. They've been really, really good, uh, you know, over the last couple weeks dealing with tons of injuries. Um, but credit to them.
Moving on to the last tier, and this is the how did you get here tier, because honestly, these are not a lot of good matchups here. Um, I'm not going to spend too much time going over these matchups. You get the Tennessee Titans, right? The Titans taking on the Saints. Um, I'm lower on consensus. Consensus has them at 15. I have them at 17. I don't love the Titans in this matchup.
Then you have the Baltimore Ravens. They're at 18. They take on the Packers. Maybe no Josh Jacobs. You know, there, there's some banged up players in the Packers. Maybe you're higher there, but I think the, you know, it's going to be a low-scoring game. The ceiling's not that high.
Buffalo Bills at 19. They take on the Eagles. You know, which offense for the Eagles is going to show up? We've seen the Eagles offense look much better over the last couple of weeks, but they've also played much more inferior defenses, um, than the Bills. Um, but also Bills run defense is a little scary, and the Eagles right now are leaning on the run.
Then you have the Carolina Panthers. Carolina's a little sneaky in this matchup. I know the Seattle Seahawks have been really good, but Seattle's traveling in this game. And the Panthers defense has gotten much, much better this year. Um, and so they could be sneaky. They could shoot up to to even as high as in my opinion like 17 here. Um, they are an interesting play.
Then you have the Miami Dolphins at 21. They take on the Bucs. Bucs offense just doesn't look right, guys. I mean, Baker, I don't know if it's that he's hurt still, or he probably is hurt, but just overall the offense just hasn't looked good. And, and the Panthers kept them down, uh, you know, pretty, pretty substantially last week. Uh, and the Miami Dolphins defense has played good.
Um, then I had the Philadelphia Eagles here at 22. Look, Josh Allen, I, I mean, he's taken some sacks. Um, you know, this is just really, hey, this is a, a good defense. You just start them if you're not really looking for risky.
Um, then you have the Cincinnati Bengals here at 23. Cincinnati Bengals, the consensus has them at 19. I have them at 23. I get it. They're playing the Arizona Cardinals. Jacoby Brissett takes a lot of sacks. Um, normally I'd be in on targeting the Arizona Cardinals, but this defense for the Bengals is just terrible. I don't care what they did against Quinn Uers last week. Doesn't it, I'm not, this is Jacoby Brissett is much, much better than Quinn Uers. Um, now he's going to take some sacks, but this defense is terrible for, uh, you know, this, uh, for the Cincinnati Bengals. So, I'm not jazzed up to play them.
And then at 24, the Chicago Bears. Man, talk about a defense that that's came to play lately. Um, consensus has them at 21. I have them at 24. Look, San Francisco is starting to roll a little bit on offense. I don't think it's as advantageous of a matchup as we normally have seen earlier on in the year. Um, but still, um, I have the Chicago Bears at 24. I can't keep them out of the top 24 rankings, but I just don't love them this week.
But that's going to do it for me. Thank you guys so much for watching. If you are new to the Player Profiler channel from the Faceoff Sports Network, make sure you hit that like button and subscribe. Uh, if you are new to my content here at Player Profiler from the defensive perspective, let me know what you think. Leave your comments and questions below. I will happily answer them like I do for my other videos. U, but until next time, good luck in your matchups this week.