Transcription
One month into her prime ministership, how has Sanae Takaichi fared in office? Let me give you my field report in this installment of APARC Briefing.
Hi, I'm Kiyoteru Tsutsui, director of APARC, the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center here at Stanford University. Welcome to APARC Briefing.
In our first installment, immediately following Prime Minister Takaichi's confirmation as Japan's first female prime minister, I discussed her rise to power and what her cabinet selection signal for her policy priorities. What has happened after one month? Now, here are three key takeaways.
First, she's very popular among the Japanese public, registering historic approval numbers, and I'll examine why. Second, her debut in the diplomatic arena went as well as it could have. But then in the last couple weeks, a tension with China has risen after her comment about Japan's potential involvement in a Taiwan contingency, presenting her with the first real foreign policy challenge. Third, her big stimulus package, just unveiled, will most likely shape public opinions about her government in important ways with implications for when the next election might be.
First, the high approval rating. Her biggest political strength right now is her high approval rating. The first set of polls came in showing her approval rating as high as 82%, which is the second highest in recent memory, second only to the wildly popular Junichiro Koizumi in the early 2000s. A month into her prime ministership, the polls still show a strong support for her in the 60 and 70% range. Even considering the honeymoon period, this is an extremely high level of support.
As we discussed in the last video, her power base is still relatively weak as she had to rely on LDP elders such as Aso and Motegi to become prime minister and her new coalition with Ishin, the innovation party still doesn't have the majority in the Diet. But the high rating is keeping her going strong despite all that. So why is she so popular? People are still trying to figure that out, but early indications are that her earnest, down-to-earth, hardworking style has been a big hit.
She famously or infamously declared that she will drop the concept of work-life balance for herself and expect her fellow party members to work, work, work, work, and work. She actually delivered on that promise in another famous or infamous episode where she reportedly held a meeting at 3:00 a.m. in the prime minister's residence to prepare for the next day's budget committee meeting in the Diet. Some expected this episode to work against her, reporting on how this late-night move involved many of her subordinates and disrupted their lives, implying a violation of work-life balance norms. But it seems that the public opinion moved in the opposite direction of applauding her for her strong work ethic and preparing for policy debates rather than having nice dinners to develop relationships with other important politicians and reporters, a common practice among other leaders of LDP.
Her statements in the Diet demonstrate her command of the policy matters as she uses her own voice in those debates, not totally constrained by bureaucrats' choreography like many other ministers, which made her seem like a very competent prime minister who speaks her own mind. Although this approach ended up leading to a diplomatic issue with China as I discuss later.
Playing to her strengths, she talks about how she sleeps only two to four hours every day, working extremely hard to serve the country. She's so popular, especially among younger generations with purchasing powers that the items that she uses, such as her bags, accessories, clothes, and pens are flying off the shelf in Japan. Her black leather tote bag in particular became a craze, and its maker, Hamano, showed on its website that those who want to put their hands on the same model as Takaichi is called the Grace Delight Tote would have to wait until the end of August 2026.
Another reason why she's so popular is her successful debut in international politics, which is the second thing I'd like to cover today. Takaichi was thrown into diplomatic scenes very early as she hosted President Trump in Tokyo exactly a week after taking office. The meeting went quite well as Trump praised her as the heir of his good friend Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister of Japan. And despite some criticism that she was a little too obsequious, most Japanese were pleased that she maintained a good relationship with an unpredictable US president who could create a lot of problems for Japan.
She also performed well at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit, APEC, in South Korea, having friendly interactions with other world leaders, in stark contrast to her predecessor, Prime Minister Ishiba, who was criticized for acting like an antisocial loner, looking at his phone in the seat and not standing up when others came to shake his hands. She did particularly well there to develop a good relationship with President Lee of South Korea, putting aside her conservative bent on historical issues and highlighting instead her love of Korean cosmetics and K-dramas.
On October 31st, she also met with President Xi Jinping of China on the sidelines of the APEC meetings. It was a good meeting as the two leaders pledged to pursue constructive and stable bilateral relations. Although this ended up providing pretext for enraging China later on November 7th in response to questions from opposition parties in the Diet, Takaichi remarked that there is a potential for a certain scenario of Taiwan contingencies to constitute an existential threat to Japan, which implies that it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.
The overall response to this line of questioning followed the standard Japanese stance for the most part. But being asked about a specific scenario, she went a step further to suggest that Japan could intervene militarily in the event of a Taiwan contingency, which sitting Japanese prime ministers had craftily avoided in the past. This reflects her confidence in discussing policy matters in her own voice. But in this case, she may have gone a step further than previous leaders.
China responded with fury, starting with its council general in Osaka's comment about beheading her for the statement, escalating its rhetoric and action, urging its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, signaling possible restrictions on Japanese seafood imports, sending Coast Guard vessels near disputed islands, and canceling meetings and cultural events. Takaichi's government has toned down largely on Japan's potential involvement in Taiwan, but it would be hard for her to retract her remarks entirely, which would be an acknowledgment that Japan would not intervene in a Taiwan contingency. China also might be finding it hard to pull back now that it has raised its fist quite high. So it's not clear how and when this spat could end, especially since the diplomatic channels between Takaichi's cabinet and China are limited with people within the LDP like Nikai and Moryama are not closely involved in the government and Komeito, which has close relations with China, is out of coalition.
Now, China's methods in this are familiar, as countries like South Korea and Australia faced similar offensives, as well as Japan in the early 2010s. And if these past experiences are any indication, it could take many months and even years for this to settle.
Finally, on domestic politics, the biggest news is that Takaichi's government just unveiled a 21.3 trillion yen or $139 billion stimulus package, the largest since the COVID times. The package aims to boost the country's flowing economy, offer support to inflation-hit consumers, and strengthen defense capabilities with investments in the area. Items to counter inflation included lifting surcharges on the gasoline tax and gas oil transaction tax for 6.4 billion. Increased subsidies to lower household electricity and gas bills, 3.2 billion. Cash handouts for families with children that will cost 2.6 billion, a regional aid package that includes distribution of rice coupons, as rice prices have doubled compared to last year, that would cost 12.7 billion in total.
Now, the question is whether markets will be reassured. Mounting worries over the country's deteriorating finances have pushed the yen to 10-month lows and driven ultralong government bond yields to record highs. The concern over a potential "Truss Shock," recalling the UK turmoil sparked by concerns over fiscal discipline under then prime minister Liz Truss, lingers, and Takaichi will be closely monitoring markets' reaction in the coming weeks and months.
The spat with China actually may not reduce support for Takaichi, since it could actually ignite a patriotic reaction if the public perceives it as China bullying Japan's first female prime minister. But the economy has to improve for her to feel confident going into the next election. Speaking of which, the next thing to watch is whether Takaichi might call a snap election soon. This was seen as highly unlikely and remains so in my view, considering that the party LDP's approval rating is still quite low at around 30% and has not kept up with the high rating for Takaichi herself. But now that the special budget has passed, this winter and this coming summer is a possible timing for it if her approval rating continues to be strong.
In sum, Takaichi's first month started off quite well, especially in terms of her approval rating. But the intensifying spat with China and whether her stimulus package can tame the growing inflation in Japan are major concerns for her as she heads into the second month of her prime ministership.
I hope you found this explainer helpful. This is a new format we're experimenting with. So, tell us what you think and what other topics you'd like us to cover, and let us know in the comment section. Thank you very much and see you next time.