Transcription
Today's number, guys, is one because not only have we witnessed another massive darkpool transaction from Wall Street, but we had over 60% of stocks up while the NASDAQ was actually down 1% plus. So, what does this mean for 2026? Well, it's playing well into the playbook that we've discussed before with breadth, rotation, and squeezes going on in several markets, including Bitcoin and silver. But when will this all stop? And will the madness continue? Well, one thing's for sure, a Trump tweet just knocked billions off the market. Guys, let's go through stocks, commodities, and cryptos as we uncover some of the biggest moves, the key storylines, and what you need to know as traders and investors. See you soon.
Well, welcome back everyone to the Daily Show. In today's video, we're discussing everything from the macro to, of course, the data and what Wall Street doesn't want you to know about markets right now. My name's Thomas Atinson and if you love markets like we do, remember to subscribe and smash that alert button. So, let's kick things off with the big news stories, the Brett, the data, the options flow, and the key levels. And we'll start here with the big news. And one of those points was, of course, the Supreme Court, which chose to delay its ruling on tariffs until a later date. Maybe not surprising some of you guys in the comments based on the previous video.
Another thing I want to mention was this oil. Yes, Trump came out and posted a tweet saying that the killings have stopped and there are no plans for executions in Iran. And instantly we saw barrels of oil go from 62 plus to 5950. They've since recovered to about the middle of this point right now. But it does just show how fast things can move in this market and we saw tens of billions of dollars wiped off that particular asset. So it's going to be a volatile 2026, guys. And of course, we'll be taking you through each and every point of it.
Speaking of which, we've seen Wall Street activity really active in 2026 and massive transactions coming through. One of those has been, of course, the eco- weighted market, which we've seen multiple large transactions come in. And actually, another massive number one coming in near the top up here, guys, over the last 24 hours, which marks two of the biggest trades ever recorded on this particular asset. Now, if you're not familiar, the RSP is the equal weighted ETF and it comes in line with some other discussion that we've seen for a while, which has been Wall Street having a broadening pattern, but also getting out of certain markets, particularly the Magnificent 7, which have been in a bit of a decline. And as we mentioned in our previous video, it looks like global sector fund flows have been showing that technology is on the decline, or at least sideways, and other sectors have been on the increase. Now, if you've been watching our channel for a long time, you would know since September, we thought this would happen since, of course, the Fed did its first rate cut. And we've been following along with several key markets, including, of course, materials and metals and oil recently, and of course, healthcare and many, many other sectors. So much opportunity in this market.
I've got to say, we were going through all of the different community questions yesterday in our private streams, which are links in the description down below over at fxevolution.com, which we do every day for the open and close. And there were so many positions. I was really surprised. So 2026 has just so much activity and of course each and every day it seems like there's a lot of abundance. So something we practice on this channel, we'd always talk about, you may think, oh, it doesn't make any sense, is the abundance mindset. Think back to your investments and trades in the past and how you probably forgot half of them and where they were. But more importantly that you realize that only a few weeks later you were looking at something different. Just recently we saw Bitcoin break out and guess what? That was only 2 days ago. So there's always another opportunity.
Now speaking of which, the Russell 2000 has been beating the spy. Now this is not the first time we've talked about this. We've actually seen it now for multiple months, but we just got a new breach high. And of course, as you can see here from the duality research report and also of course what we've been talking about, we've broken out and this has been a trend line we've looked at for a long time now. When this happens, we have to consider is this a big deal? Well, luckily for us, Subu traders gone through and pulled some stats. And this is not exactly the same stat that I was looking at before, but what it does show is that when the Russell 2000 has an incredible beat rate on the S&P, which is kind of rare, you're either usually at the beginning of a pretty decent run or right at the top. And I would argue this doesn't look like the top based on where the ratio is at. So maybe a few days later it's a 50/50, but when you come back to thinking about a month later, 88% of the time the Russell 2000 is beating the spy. So it really shows you that we could be in this late cycle market and if we are in a late cycle bull run then we have to be really wary of 2026 that is follow the trend until it's not your friend and we'll be watching the magnificent 7 particularly closely and bonds this year because if they keep failing especially during earning season then the indices will be in big trouble and it's again going to be a stock pickers market which we've suspected for a while now.
What was the big story of the last 24 hours other than those two bits of news? It was probably that we saw 60 plus% of stocks advancing while the S&P actually closed down.5% and the NASDAQ was down like 1% on the session. Now, why is this important? Well, it shows that we've got a broadening pattern, which is all good to a degree, but often does lead into the index actually declining. Only 56% of the time is it bullish 1 month later. And funnily enough, you've got to remember earning season is coming up very soon. So, this basically means that we're in for it, especially with the banks and especially with tech. Everything is going to probably lynch pin on those two particular sectors and we'll have to watch it very closely.
Here's just an example of the large trades on RSP and I don't think we should be trading RSP but number one largest trade on Magnificent 7 came in just this week or just last week actually and it actually showed us that again we've got huge amounts of potential distribution here as Wall Street moves out of this market sector starts to maybe question the future of AI and starts to potentially take some profits. Now another big dark pull that we've seen and remember all these markets are connected has been BitB which was of course the Bitcoin ETF. We saw a sweep came through and then we saw a monstrous rally over the last couple of sessions. Now sweeps are very fast trades but we just actually re reached a pretty big pinnacle point here for Bitcoin which of course was that we've gone back to break even. So, if you actually track all of the people that have bought Bitcoin over time now, it seems like pretty much once we get past 97,500, the average buyer since the all-time high will now be profitable. So, that is the average buyer through all of this kind of volatility would actually be back into the profit. So, pretty important point. Certainly worthwhile noting. And as we've mentioned before, it does look like Bitcoin's kind of strong hopefully into the 104 106K range. So, it's starting to look a little bit better.
Now, are we seeing that in flows? Yeah, you betcha. Of course, we already knew this was going to be happening. Look at that monster, though. 753. Let's just say that number is bigger than any other number here. And it was a huge day of flows on the 13th. We suspected as much. We're probably going to be seeing pretty good flows based on the 14th as well. Again, we just have one update here, but already it's positive. And it does kind of look very positive for Bitcoin because remember, we've got other coins starting to break out as well. Salana, Ethereum is getting closer. And of course, then we've also already had XRP. And this brings us to where do we go to? Are we going to head and squeeze out all of these people here that are probably still in partial short positions without stop- losses? Are we going to squeeze them to something like a 106 or are we even going to squeeze them higher to something like a 112? These levels are important.
A lot of you guys are saying, "Tom, why are you not mentioning the bare flag? You're meant to be unbiased." I understand what you're saying, guys. This is kind of what a lot of people are mentioning, but to me, what I think a lot of people had was this drawn as the flag, and they've just kind of adjusted it for their own reasons. You know how it is in sometimes in TA, people adjust it. And you kind of got to remember that what happened was the market reacted to this area here, rejected multiple times. And that's why I thought this was such a huge close. It was not only super red laser eye kind of color, but at the same time, we also had a huge amount of shorts most likely getting squeezed. And when we got through 945, we obviously started to push higher. So, some pretty big movements there.
So, is everything okay for the markets right now? Well, based on the Dow Jones industrial theory, we obviously just hit all-time highs. And while semiconductors have fallen a little bit in the last day or two, realistically again they were at all-time highs. So I think considering that most stocks are going up for now, the market does look quite good and it's going to be all about earnings, earnings, earnings.
Now let's move over to the crazy pair right now and that might be silver. Now you guys know I'm a big fan of silver on the macro. I have been probably this channel's well known for gold and silver and we were some of the earliest to call these massive moves back last year. And of course with gold 3 4 years ago whenever it was 22 23 and yeah I've loved those pairs but I will say silver is absolutely ballistic now. It's a mixture of of course supply demand that is there is literally supply shortages. We just saw the US mint, I believe, stop sales for a little while as they adjust for price. And of course, there is less on the market at this point. But we're clearly in one of those silver style squeezes. And you can see here the value of volume according to Subie Trade is 14.3 billion instantly kind of like eclipsing all of the previous points including 2011. And this is well known what silver does. Unfortunately, when silver rallies like this, you might think, "Yes, woohoo, look at this." It's actually a bit scary. So, we have to be careful and vigilant because when silver goes ballistic like this, it can be a little bit too aggressive and it can also create some significant crashes afterwards. So, I think that silver is fantastic. You keep going with it until you don't and that is when volatility enters the chat to the short side.
Now, we did see a darkpool sweep. We suspected it may have been take-profit targeting. Uh, but there is actually a way I should have looked at that and next time I will. But in this case, you can see here that it was a sweep. So, we now know it was most likely a buy and it was a quick one because sweeps are quick and effectively it has rallied and rallied and rallied since then. So, it's obviously been putting a lot of pressure on the upside. Now, the question becomes if we have gold going up, we have copper going up, we have silver, platinum, platium, everything else, will we eventually get energy going up? Well, I do tend to think we will. Obviously, energyy's been on the pickup the last couple of days, but Trump instantly knocked it down with that tweet. But again, I think it is starting to turn, guys, and we've got some big price action. So, it's going to be very interesting to see how this all plays out over the next couple of weeks and months because 2026 is certainly kicking off to be one that's driven by news cycles. But, as I often say, keep calm, keep collected. Maybe ignore the news cycles and instead focus on the flows and the price action. trying to clear your head in what I think is going to be a very tough year for a lot of people out there, especially if you trying to keep ahead of everything because it's too much stuff already going on.
Now, in midterm years, is it normal for the stock market to have a bit of weakness? The answer is quite simply yes. Generally, we get weakness the back end of January, funnily enough, where we are right now. And then we usually see some strength and really I think the question is what will earnings bring because the market is going to be on tent hooks especially about probably financials and tech. So we'll be watching both those closely.
Let's have a look at the S&P. Was that a concerning day? Again, not really. Why? Look at that advanced decline line. You usually see a new high when you see an advanced decline line going up and the market has pulled back. So again, it's not too much of a worry. and the US 500 in terms of options high lows. I wasn't able to get the data yet for it because it's a little bit early video, but what I will say is that in general, the markets are still looking pretty strong. So, we just hit the daily 20. This has been a bit of a bounce zone. Obviously, the 50 as well is worth watching, but no real interest I think in the index just yet. It's really going to come down to some of the sectors. Now, from the previous data we had, we had the 15th here where 7,000 was the call wall and about 6,900 is the put zone. So, again, kind of similar to where we find ourselves now. Tesla still stuck between the 460 and the 430. So, just remember 430 is put wall, 460 is a call wall, guys. And Nvidia, obviously, we're looking at 195 plus. It was down about 1% on the session.
Let's have a look now at IBIT, which is fast approaching some key levels. So, we obviously hit 55. um you know will we go all the way to a 60 that's the next question we'll get the update over the next 24 hours show you guys and I think that IBIT is now in positive gamma so that's a positive sign for bulls out there when it comes to silver we're smashing into all sorts of call walls so I think the end of the week the way that this weekly closes is going to be pretty important and of course we'll be watching that very closely and um really paying attention to I think where the close happens because if it does close on walls and we've got more walls the week after, options could start to play a part in all of these squeezes and of course gold heading towards that 425 430 level which we've mentioned several times over in the show.
Let's now jump into the charts. We'll have a look here at of course Bitcoin to start off with. That was a pretty positive break. It's got another good close. We haven't quite closed it out, but it looks like it's going to get a pretty good daily close and it's going to be above that 9 kind of 56,000 which a lot of people thought was a bit of a sneaky supply. To me, this is a strong sign that we could be moving towards the 104 106 and again it's not a negative especially considering things like Salana which are just starting to break out here after what I thought was a pretty good session. You can see here these are starting to look more positive as well. So yeah, a lot of coins starting to to come up. And if we have a look here at Ethereum, you can see that's also pushing that bulls take control kind of resistance, maybe get through this supply on the left hand side. XRP also improving.
Now, as we mentioned, IWM versus SPY, we kind of consider that the Russell is stronger than the S&P at the moment due to that breadth and that seems to have continued through the markets at this stage. But the real story the last 24 hours, as we mentioned, was probably oil. Look at this switch. I'm just going to mark this out. This is UK oil. But have a look here. It was 5.21%. If we go to US oil for a second here, you can see again longleg doy and it has managed to still close above that 60/50. So look, you don't not expect a bit of vol. But at the same time, just remember, I think Trump kind of wants this lower. So even though a lot of the things in the world would make it kind of go higher, there may be more tweets that actively uh kind of move this stock this this commodity a little bit. So I think in one case you've kind of got a break to the upside which is obviously bullish here for oil initially, but you've got to be careful about the fact that it's a geopolitical position. So it can be quite manipulated by several key players in the world and you're going to see I think a lot of that play out in the news. So again, focus on the price action more than anything else. I think that's going to be the key there.
Oil services kind of the more safe play towards it has been very strong. So I'll give you guys a clap because not many people had oil services in their bingo card late last year. We obviously did and it's been pretty sweet. Chinese markets breaking up. Single stocks actually for China as well has been where the play has been. Uh we have talked about them in our private community. Obviously here on the show we've only got so much time, but let's just say some of them have been breaking up and um it's been pretty impressive, I guess, to see the uh I guess you would say the the the variety of 2026 so far. And I don't know why I keep having Madna there, but that was a pretty sweet day on the previous session. But gold, you can see here, has continued to rally up and it's just sitting. So, it had an all-time high, but now it's just consolidating. If we look at silver and platinum, you can see they've kind of hit, well, this platinum's hit a resistance. Gold's kind of consolidating and silver's been a squeeze. It is actually extremely overbought. So, at this stage, you've got to be a little bit careful. It's It's kind of getting up there. Now, if we take out 94, let's say an ounce, so we'll set an alert up there. Um, if we take that level out, I think it'll probably squeeze even higher. But, this is where I would say exhaustion is going to set in. It's trending everywhere. Everyone's talking about it. I'm still bullish on it, of course, macro-wise. I got no problems with it really. It's not quite at my ratios just yet.
Speaking of which, if you do look at your silver gold ratios, uh you should probably be doing that. So, if you're not doing it already, make sure to look at your silver gold ratios. And you'll see it actually hit my first target over the last 24 hours, which was 02. So, this is actually my first and main target. And then secondary target was sitting in the 0.24s. Uh so yeah, has it done enough for me? I guess it has from the ratio. Uh macro wise, I still think it might have more, but it may get volatile sooner rather than later. Copper still rallying up. Still very nice on metals, of course, across the board, guys. And Tesla fell back down. No 460 break. Getting closer to that 430. Obviously looking for some support there. Nvidia also barely holding on, but it still is. Obviously the double bottom base, the breakout and the consolidation for now. So we're just in a pit. There's nothing really concerning I think about Nvidia at this stage in the markets.
Semiconductors wise you can see here that we're continuing to rally but we are getting exhausted again. So it kind of makes sense. You know when you look at semiconductors when you look at the magnificent 7 uh you can kind of see here the market is showing us there's clear rotation and it not all things are equal. Russell 2000 again starting to get exhausted, but it's had an extremely good run. Some of the data suggests that there might be a little bit of weakness in the short term, but I think this is again relatively strong for breadth rotation, which is which is a good thing, of course, when you're looking at markets. And you're always going to be wanting to pay attention to this cross pair, which is IWM versus SPY.
Another thing I want to mention is keep watching the dollar in 2026, guys. Although the dollar is gaining at the moment uh due to all this political instability uh just remember that that downward trend line or the trend line that comes off the bottom of these because if that breaks in the future even if you're not watching this channel and wherever you are I think it's going to be a very important point here for the dollar. So, a lot of people are starting to get concerned about fiat currencies after what's happening with um the Iran dollar, which is basically almost worthless now, I think. Um if you look it up on Google, you'll see what I mean. And yeah, it's it's getting pretty pretty crazy out there.
So, to summarize, guys, I think it is a market of opportunity. I think there are many different opportunities today. We even shared some that that are starting to look very very tasty at certain levels. We have seen of course excellent runs in metals but some of those are starting to correlate together especially silver to gold ratio which I think is important and we are continuing to see bread. So it is a stock pickers market here in 2026 and that I think is pretty exciting in itself. So remember guys try to keep bias out of it. Make sure to pay attention to the charts, the flows, the movements and I'm looking forward to bringing you more videos this year where we talk about all of those things together. I hope you're having a good one. It's obviously pretty stressful out there, but focus on the charts, focus on the price action, and it will be easier. Bye for now. We'll see you in the next one.