Transcription
Hello, it's Crypto and I hope you are doing well. Despite the fact that we are retesting the 107,000 dollars at the moment I am making this video, you will understand why you will also understand what is happening behind the shutdown and especially what is causing the American markets to hold so strongly while the shutdown is still not over in the USA. You will see that Jerome Powell has a lot to do with it and it will unfortunately be next week. So, that means we will have a week full of volatility with resistances and supports to know imperatively. Moreover, I remind you that in the comments and description, you have my free Telegram where I share a lot of information, like last night when I explained that the resistance at 1100 would be important and that there was a high chance of rejection, which we are seeing at the moment. Of course, macroeconomics plays a big role. President Donald Trump explaining to China that they will pay 155% in tariffs. So, we are no longer at 100%. We are at 155% on November 1st. Note that just before November 1st, 48 hours before November 1st, there will be discussions with the two presidents. But so, certainly, there will be the application of the uh tariffs until a decision is made, because the decision cannot be made in the short term, especially not in China. So, it will certainly be complicated. Even if CZ tells us that Bitcoin will certainly flip gold, meaning that Bitcoin, which is in 8th position, will certainly surpass gold and its considerable market cap, knowing that the market cap of gold will continue to rise gradually in the coming years. So, that means that BTC will certainly surpass, according to CZ's vision, again, 2 million dollars if we take the bullish evolution of gold at the same time as the bullish evolution of Bitcoin and the desire to have Bitcoin surpass gold. However, he doesn't know when it will happen, and indeed, there is always a notion of short term, medium term, long term. By the way, tell me in the comments, are you more long term on BTC or are you really short term? Finish this cycle and then move on to traditional finance. In the meantime, speaking of traditional finance, we will mainly talk about decentralized finance with USDE and Eta, it's the protocol that is releasing USDE, which is a stablecoin that offers a yield around 4, 5, 6, 7% approximately. So, it's a token yield pairing. And they have decided to expand with new recruitments and especially new products that will be released. Note that USDE is really used everywhere in all ecosystems at the moment. It's starting to become the reference, and it's a synthetic token. So, that means we are really in a position, what we call delta neutral, a position where we have no volatility and we earn yield thanks mainly, in the case of USDE, to the staking of Ethereum and here the funding rates that are paid to those who have a short position on Ethereum, and the sum of the two creates a yield directly in the token and ensures that it is always at 1 dollar and that there is very little fluctuation, if any, except during the liquidation of Binance. But that's another story. But despite everything that is happening, we will have to really look at institutional volumes. That's what's most important. We see that there is a decrease, indeed, an outflow of 40 million dollars. It remains relatively low compared to what we could have had. So, that means there is a dynamic, indeed, that is slowly picking up again. Will this be the case again today, or will we press the accelerator by going back above 300 million in outflows? And what interests me most is also to see what the dynamic is at the institutional level. Are we just seeing people leaving? That is to say, the sum of all these figures here, i.e., 100 million outflows, 9 million inflows, 12, 9, 21, 7.4, and all that makes a volume. Is that the case or not? It's not the case at all. Where we had, in particular, just on HBIT, okay? So, just on here, the ETF from BlackRock, 100 million that have left. Okay? But the volume in the day is 3.2 billion dollars. You have to understand that there are a lot of back and forth movements that are being made, and we have a lot of institutions using the ETF itself to gain exposure, to exit exposure, and so on. And what is interesting to see is that there is a rotation happening within institutions, with them entering and exiting ETFs. And that's a very good sign. It means that it's being used a lot as a vector for investment and trading. And that's rather positive for Bitcoin in the long term. But in any case, the most important thing will be what happens in macroeconomics. You've understood it well, in the short term, we are managing this. Two things: 1, the trade war with China, 2, the shutdown. And of course, that plays a big role with the arrival of Jerome Powell, so next week. And so, we are soon at the 4th week of the shutdown, during which the USA has put a large part of its workforce on technical unemployment. And so, that means we have no information at all on economic stats, which are essential for the USA, for the Fed, for Jerome Powell, and even going further, just in crypto, we don't have any ETFs launched because there's no one being paid to work, and we should normally have an end to the shutdown this week. In any case, that's what's announced. It might take a little longer. And they clearly said that even if it wasn't this week, the Republicans would put a lot of pressure on the Democrats with certainly an increase in restrictions on the Democrats, as the White House has done over the last four weeks. So, we will move to a higher stage to reach the end of this shutdown. And this is not the first time it has lasted so long. The longest was 35 days, and it was under whom? Under Trump, the first version. So, during his first term, and it was long, very, very long. He didn't let go at all, and he managed to make the Democrats yield, and that's a bit what he's trying to do here. The economic impact of a shutdown is about 0.1% of GDP per week of shutdown. So, it's a significant impact. We're talking about 0.4% of GDP now, potentially 0.5, and then it will be necessary to see the reality, but of course, it has an impact on the American economy, and this American economy, well, this impact should also be priced in by Jerome Powell in his decision to lower rates, and this rate cut will take place, so here there is a rate cut, perhaps even more on Wednesday, October 29th, and that's clearly what is supporting the markets currently. Now, when we also look at this notion of shutdown, there's Amazon AWS that had a big problem which stopped almost the entire global economy. Major sites went down and couldn't restart their services. And when I say major sites, I mean really, really many. Let's recall that Amazon AWS represents more than 40%, 45% of global hosting and of the huge sites we can have in crypto, but not only, even in more traditional applications. And so, that reminds us that decentralized infrastructure solutions are perhaps relevant and especially much more resilient. But what is interesting to monitor here in the short term, as I told you, will be the macroeconomic decision. One might wonder why the S&P 500 is pushing so hard. What is it that despite the shutdown, despite the economic war, there is an S&P that is pushing, and it's certainly not what was signed with Australia on tariffs that will be enough to support the US. Okay? We are still and always under a strong impact of a decision and customs taxes that can trigger even more impact on the American economy. But what is mainly holding it up, once again, is the Fed's decision to lower rates. If there hadn't been a rate cut, I think we would have taken a monumental hit with the shutdown plus economic war, it would have been quite catastrophic. But for now, the S&P 500 is quietly heading towards a new ATH while BTC is correcting. And yes, we had a bearish acceleration on the CME and on all BTC prices, but it's even more visible on the CME. If I remind you that the CME is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It's the futures market that was closed during the weekend when we had the purge on October 10th. So, of course, there we have a bearish acceleration, we have a classic breathing that is taking place after a bearish acceleration, and then we had a rejection to go lower. Let's recall that there is a small CME gap that is clearly present here and which can be a relatively strong support point to have a rebound, and it would be ideal here as a support point to clearly show that a bearish trend is starting to lose strength to be able to move on. You will see, I have other indicators to show you that confirm this a bit. In any case, so 107,840, 107,675 on the CME. When we look at the 4-hour chart on the Total Index and particularly, for example, the Binance price, we see that we had a rejection here from 111,000, almost 112,000, a big rejection, a big zone of re-testing, and unfortunately, the support that had been important several times, it had been important here in August, in September, then afterwards, and throughout October, it was what held us, and it was the breach that caused, precisely, a second bearish attack last week. We had a very good rebound. Now, we are breaking it, and we would need to hold the 103,400 to 103,500 level to clearly show a decrease in the bearish trend and ideally break the 111,000 or even 112,000 to truly mark a rupture, and then we will have a reversal signal to accelerate again. Unfortunately, if this is not the case and we sink, and we sink very hard, because let's remember that the most important moment remains the 29th, and on the 29th, it's when Jerome Powell will make a decision, and if the shutdown stops, a deal is made, plus a rate cut, or even two rate cuts, we will have a set of positive signals to move forward. Unfortunately, if this is not the case and we break, for example, 103,500 and we break the bottom of the wick at 102,000, it means we will revisit at least 100,000 dollars, or very certainly go back to 98,000 dollars. And breaking 90,000 dollars is a strong signal to change dynamics and have a retracement on the weekly movement, and note that the weekly movement is quite powerful. If we zoom out really far, the weekly movement goes from 75,000 dollars to 126,000 dollars. And so, the 0.5 is around 100,000 dollars here, and the 0.786 is around 86,000 dollars. So, ideally, it is imperative to hold these zones, to accelerate, and to have a rebound with a set of good news to push relatively hard and reverse this trend that we could have for a much deeper retracement than we wish. So, here we have the different key levels. We are in a consolidation phase. Consolidation which necessarily leads to an increase in the number of liquidities we have. We see it clearly below 100,000 dollars. We see that it is consolidating with a lot of liquidations taking place. 116,000 dollars also at the level of shorts. So, that means we are compressing liquidities, and that means we will have a certainly quite powerful movement in terms of liquidations, and therefore, volatility that risks exploding next week or in anticipation of the end of this week. The dominance is slowly rising, we see it quietly. Here, we are on a daily chart to clearly show the fact that we have a dominance that is structuring itself. So, a BTC that is stronger, necessarily a period of instability, BTC gaining strength. That's exactly what we are seeing here. It should be noted that despite the drop we are experiencing, 252 million dollars in longs have been liquidated. So, it's relatively low. We see a global decrease in perpetuals and open interest, that is to say, we are indeed in a market that is becoming a bit less risky, and that's rather positive in the long term. The other thing to consider is that we still have a pattern that looks excessively like what we saw in 2024 with the August 2024 drop here and the rebound and retest. It's something we saw here in terms of the structuring of long-short positions among top traders. We had seen a reversal, so a contraction, then a trend reversal, and that's a bit what we are seeing. We have the contraction and the reversal that is happening in a much shorter timeframe and to monitor. It's still only a premise, it's rather a very good sign. And we also have a pattern in terms of open interest on coin marging that shows us exactly the same thing with a rebound and a breathing. It's still too early to see it. And so, that would imply that we would have a decrease in the bearish momentum to potentially restructure a bottom. But will we do it at 107,000? Will we do it at 100,000 dollars? Unfortunately, we don't have that information yet, and that's why you need to manage your risk well and be very careful on that side. I hope this video pleased you. I hope it helped you understand what is happening and especially to manage your risk, that's the most important thing. Don't forget it. We are in a period of instability with at the same time a potential end of cycle with a shift in momentum driven by institutions, and so, of course, we are in between, we need to manage it, and we need to manage it closely. Don't forget, before leaving, a little like and subscribe if you liked this type of video, and I'll see you tomorrow. No.