Transcription
Well, another all-time high today from this huge run that we've had. And we should really talk about the volume to some extent. I don't want to look at the volume just on the futures market. I want to talk about the volume here because what we're starting to see for the first time is a little bit of a decline. Not a huge one, but a little bit of a decline. And maybe that's cuz we're going into the weekend. And I think there's a couple things here we need to discuss. And we're getting the same exact pattern here. And I think that that's important as well. So, let's start there. And then we're going to drill into the sectors. We have to talk about what happened to Netflix after hours and what SpaceX had to say. Let's do it.
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So, what we want to start with are just the basics right here. What you have is you have a dogee. Dogeis are signs of uncertainty and they're really simple to spot. And anyone that has really basic technical analysis should be able to spot them. But it's really just when you have a wick at the top and a wick at the bottom and the body is smaller than the wicks combined. If you just think of it that way, it makes a lot of sense because you'll see them in different areas like you'll see here and then you get a sign of uncertainty and then it makes a decision. Whether this uncertainty is going to be up or whether this uncertainty is going to be down remains to be seen, but you have the same exact pattern here and I think that this is really important. I again from yesterday's video and I got a lot of good comments on it and I appreciate that and I appreciate you sharing it because it was pretty clear that that one got shared. You can actually see the metrics. But when we have these signs of uncertainty at the top of a chart, it's not really the time to go full boore.
What gets me about the market as a whole is that we're not having that follow-through. We're having these huge boosts out of nowhere and then they're just going away. I'm going to pick a random name and I'll show you exactly what I mean. Now, Seagate's a great company. It's been doing exceptionally well. Several upgrades. But just if you take a random day here and we just click on it, this is what I'm talking about. Out of nowhere, just at three o'clock on a Thursday, boom, you just have these bars out of nowhere. So, if you're trading this during the day and you're looking at this, you just you're like, "Oh, there's really no need for me to pay attention to this." Even if I threw V in, you're like, "Yeah, no one's really paying attention to this." And then out of nowhere, it's just wham. And someone comes in and goes, "Oh, I need 80,000 shares right now." They're usually algorithmic traders or they are ETFs and purposely I tend to avoid these kinds of names when there's nothing behind them. Now, if you're going into earnings or you think earnings are going to be good, that's a different scenario.
So, I want to give you another example of this before I go forward with this theme on when it's actually decent and you should pay attention to that. So, this is one that in the community they've been talking about forever and it's not really a favorite of mine and and anyone listening that's in the community to that right now is just going to start laughing. But when you see something like this out of nowhere, you get that kind of buying and it's a solid million shares. It's out of nowhere and it's coming out with an event and then you start seeing it just being accumulated over and over again and then they hit it again. That is a very different scenario. So you have to learn the difference and that's it becomes nuanced. You can actually see it here as well where they fired in again. But this really stood out to me because there was no in the cell. See the same movement here. This is important. Let's go through this because it's a I think it's a teachable moment. So if we drop this here and we drop it like it's hot here, right? Do you see how when that bar hits what that bar does? So and I'll zoom in on this but I want you to get this because I think it's really important. And then when we go here and this will be the differentiating factor on one you'll be like man I watched this video today it was the cat's pajamas because that's what everybody says. So if you see that bar and then you'd look at this and you'd say to yourself okay well self that moved on a million shares that moved what from 6682 to 6707. And then you'd go and go well this one moved from 6717 all the way up to 67.86 encompassing literally hours worth of trading. huge difference, right? What's the difference? Like why do you care about this and what's the difference? And this is exactly where you care and what the difference is. When we see something like this, it's important to know why the sellers are gone. So all your sellers are dried up. If you have the same amount of volume here and the same amount of volume here, you have buyers. The only difference is whether or not you have sellers. So you know here that those sellers are gone. So when you ever you see this, see what? So I put an alert out today to buy this here, right? And we bought some calls too and we did obviously well with it. But what's the difference? Like why would the same volume in two different spots mean something? Well, the average true range of the move is obviously going to be greater here than here. Well, it was greater per the average true range. But what what's important about this is that's telling me very clean like, hey, there's no one left to sell this thing. So when we see stuff like that, we really want to pay attention to it.
But let's get back to the the questions at hand here. So what do we see actually happening? We see the socks rallying, right? So it's kind of hard to look at this and say, okay, things are getting bad. It's more a function of are we getting tired? And the question here is you cannot look at a chart like this and just say, oh well, we're definitely going to roll over. I'm equating this and what I said yesterday in yesterday's video and you haven't watched it with maybe we're just a little ahead of ourselves. And that's a big difference between everything else. And I look at the socks and go, "All right, well, Taiwan Semi, you know, that's down on the day. ASML, that's down on the day. Lamb Research, these names held their own today." All right. Well, that's great. What was the driver? So, the driver became the CPU trades. The CPU trades seem to be where we're going now. And again, as you know, I'd like to take credit. I've been telling people to get involved in Intel forever. And that's a running joke in the community because I constantly been calling it a pig. But in all seriousness, that's what they're doing. They're buying the CPU names. They came in, they bought AMD, and they've been accumulating these. Even Nvidia is setting up to maybe one day hopefully get above 200, which if we really look at it, it's only ever been above 200 for less than I think 10 days. So, it's kind of interesting here. But that's where this is going. And then if we look at the volume, you're starting to see them stay in the memory space. You can't really look at this and say, "Oh my gosh, what a disaster. Poor Micron. It just it didn't go up today." Like, we have to put a little bit of, you know, realism into these. This one doesn't look the best to me. Sandis, candidly, and they really didn't go after today. They kind of stayed away from it, but and I thought that was kind of interesting considering everything. But fast forward through all this. It does boast well for the socks.
So there's a couple ways to look at the socks and I'll just give you these and then you can do what you want with them. So here's asox, right? And so this is the AI side of ASOC. Let's get rid of Prometheus for a sec. Let's go take a look here and let's go this way with it. So as always, they're unedited. I don't know. You got to just deal with it. People don't seem to mind that they're unedited and raw. It's just it's the way we have to do it. So there's ASOX today. Okay, cool. And then there's the socks. So that's interesting. I wonder what the difference is. All right, so let's go take a look at ESOCS, which is the equal weighted Philadelphia semiconductor index. Okay, so they are broadening out into semiconductors outside of the AI trade. That is very clear. So then we might want to start looking at some of the analog names, right? And see what they're doing. Oh, what a coincidence. So Texas Instruments is breaking out. What about analog devices? Oh, look at that. So, we're going into that. So, I want to just here I'll give I'll even give you a little example. So, we're broadening out. We're getting bigger instead of just the AI names. So, it's really hard to to look at these and say to ourselves, you know, I I got to figure out what I'm doing here, man. He says we're going to crack. I'm saying that I think that we're due for a pullback. And I'm still not seeing signs of it. And I'll show you what I mean by this.
So, I'm watching the VIX today and I'm like, this is it. Here we go. We're finally, you know, we're over the higher high on the VIX. Exactly what I told people to watch yesterday. And what happens, you know, or as my niece says, what happened? So, if we look at this, we go up and then we close at the low and we have make a lower low close. Well, they must be panicked with bonds, right? Because of bonds right now. So, they're really panicked about what's going on. No, they could care less. Not a care in the world. They have less cares than I do. And I think that this gets really interesting because you're looking at this market going, man, you just really don't feel the need for any kind of protection. And what I find so fascinating about this is nothing's really getting better in between Iran and US. Like they're having these meetings and you know, if your ship is blue on a Tuesday and it has this one flag, maybe you can get through. Like it's not really getting like a lot better. You look at crude and crude, not now, Larry. And if you look at crude, it puts you in a position where you're like, "All right, well, there's the close." And so we're looking at Thursday's close. Now you get the, you know, we're moving into Friday's session. But what do we have here? Well, we have a high. Well, we really haven't had one of those in a while. Well, they must really be hurting the Asia names now because oil's going higher. Now, we're buying those, too. Now, they're going to go higher, too. And so we're seeing that they just they don't really seem to care anymore. When you look at something like even Taiwan, what are they doing? Oh, we're hitting highs. All right. Well, how about Japan? They must care. Yeah, a little bit, but not really. No. So, I think that the market is blowing off crude oil big time. And it makes you wonder that do they know something or is there a reckoning coming here? You know, I've been short this and I'm going to constantly keep a short position in this because I think it's overdone, but this is Gush. It's the oil producer and we started shorting it up in here when it started to crack and just been just playing with it. But you hit the 55 today. You stopped actually yesterday. And so you're seeing some holding in these names, right? In like the energy space now and now we're back over the 55 or we're fighting that 55. So we have to look at that. we have to make some big decisions there on you know what we're going to do there and so when I look at that stuff or I try to understand that I have to really be cognizant that this is happening right I don't know that I have to do anything about it because I look at the dollar and the dollar is kind of trading up but not really so what do we have here that we would have to worry about right like what is the thing that's going to get us so I look at IGV today and IGV is back over the 55 now I take that somewhat seriously. Not entirely like I'm doing cartwheels over it, but it takes a lot to get a sector over the 55. It takes more to get a sector over than it does a name for obvious reasons because you need a conglomerate.
So the question becomes, do we continue to broaden out? And if we do, what does that mean? So then we would go and take a look at something like NDFI. Hopefully you can see I'm tying all this together. And then we go look at NDFI and that's Thursday. So, and I purposely waited a little bit longer. You can take the check of the times here to show make sure they got this data in, but you're at 59. So, despite how it felt today with the market and the names that you're used to trading and the volatility of those names, like the optic names, which are like trading crack, you look at something like this and go, "Wait a minute. So, now we're back to 59. So, we're completely broadening out on the market." And so when you're over 50, the idea that you're going to do anything but pull back, it starts making it very hard to think that you're going to do anything but that. Right? We don't need the moving averages in here, but you understand where I'm going with this. All right? So then you go look at S5FI and we start seeing here that we're at 52. Then we tie this together where we look at S5FI and we divide that by NDFI. We've done this a couple times and one of the things that we always want to watch is it going up or is it going down? And the reason that we look at that is because we always want the NDX to have better breath than the S&P. And this just kind of makes sense if you think about it. And when you you say, "Well, why is that?" Well, the defensive names and the energy names are going to be in what? They're going to be in the S&P. Well, what's in the NASDAQ? Tech, biotech. It's all gas all the time. So when we think about it that way, it's just straight octane. It's either on or it's off, right? So when we look at this, we'd have to say to ourselves, well, what's happening here? Because if you go and take a look at that peak in March, like all these other peaks, what are they going to mark? And I don't need to do it. You guys have probably done this already. They're going to all mark what? Highs on the market. They'll all do it. Apologies. They're going to show lows. I I meant to say lows, but you get it. So like these highs are going to show those lows. And so if you go here March 27th, March 30th, and you just went through your chart and you did this in January 20th and you came here to January 20th, you're going to be like, "Oh my gosh, there's the high. Yay." Marked from that area. So it does a really good job of that. The other thing is when it's trending down, like if you look at September 3rd 25, and you went to something like September 3rd 25, and you just saw, well, what's it done? Well, it just keeps grinding. What? Until you get to something like this. And then you have November 3rd, right? 25. And then if you look for November 3rd, 25, you'll find it in there. And then what's happened since then? Well, it got choppy. It doesn't have to fall apart. The the trajectory is going to tell you that, but the movement's going to tell you, but all those peaks are going to mark highs on the market because you're rotating out of tech and into something defensive. It's not rocket science. I didn't create the wheel here, right? I didn't invent fire, but it just works that way. And so, it's a really good mechanism to look at. So, I can't look at this and say to myself, "All right, well, NASDAQ's going to get smoked." We're broadening out here. And when we see that broadening out, it it's very clear that you're broadening out. It's very clear that you're broadening out into some of these names. Like Oracle the other day is one of these names that I've owned for years. And when it falls apart, like really falls apart like this, I just add to it and I leave it alone. Like it's a super long-term hold for me. And so when we broke out this day and I'll show it. So when we broke out this day, I'm like, "All right, it's on. I'm going to get involved." And so I get involved and then this is what happens. And it does exceptionally well. And I'm fine with it. Like just leave it alone. Let this work. This will start to build up. We'll come back back fill. And as long as we're above the 55, I don't really think that you have to worry about it. And then you start looking at Microsoft and Microsoft's doing that and getting legs as well.
Then we start looking at like the Mag 7. And I think that this is where they're putting their money. So when you tie it together, so like here's mag, right? And you can make this yourself. Mags versus X-Mags, right? It's nothing crazy. Everyone puts these on Twitter like they created them. But you know what you're doing here is you're seeing like, oh, okay. Well, they're definitely thinking that the Magnificent 7 is going to outperform everything. So you start looking at the bottom of the market and realize that's what they're buying. So that's probably where they're going to start putting a lot of the money. It seems to be like that's where it's going. And I think that makes a lot of sense right now as people start, you know, big institutions start putting their toe in the water.
That said, I do think there's a couple things that are really worth going over here. And I think there's a couple names that could just go nuts. I have a couple here that are super interesting, but Netflix, they got it lower. It's really that simple. I own this. I held it into the call. Obviously, I would be happier if it was up, not down. I married a bunch of puts to it. So, the 100. So, the if it actually fell completely apart and went to 90, I'd be happy because I have the 100 puts. They were a dollar. It was absolutely silly. So, I was easy to marry it and just stay with it. I like the quarter. I thought it was good. I thought the conference call was a dumpster fire floating down the river with a bunch of raccoons. I don't know who set up that new conference call format, but it was gross. Hopefully, someone talks to them about that, you know, but it is what it is. I like the quarter. I thought the quarter was good. I'm really curious about what the investment banks come out tomorrow and say about that. I do think that that's something that worth paying attention to.
Something else that's out there and I think this is the other one that these guys play. I'll find it, but I'll show you the one that we play. So, you're going to start seeing some things coming out here. A lot of people are playing hymns. This is something we've been in since the mid- teens. Start looking into these kinds of names, the alternative medicine names. You're starting to see this with the peptides and hymns and these kinds of moves there. It's a really interesting space. You know, you should do what you're comfortable with. But between the peptides and some alternative medicine things, there's some things going on there. Needm's got a conference going on right now. So, that's kind of interesting what might come out of there. What might not? You never know. But also stuff like this. And I have another one here that's probably setting up. We've been in this. Give me a second. I don't know if I've done this before. So, I want to go in there and grab it because I hate doing it this way. Yeah, there it is. So, the moderator put it in. I can't type, talk, and trade at the same time. So, we bought this on 47. And the reason that we bought this was the amount of short interest and per size of the float and it was 14 days to cover. Whenever you have 14 days to cover, if you take nothing from this video, please take this. If you ever see 14 days to cover, probably don't be one of the people that's in a stock that has 14 days to cover on the short side. Just kind of think about that. All right, cool. We went long that 217 with a 180 stop and that was on a 47. But here's the trade and it was super simple. It wasn't You didn't overthink it. You just have to realize that everyone's going to have their stops at the high. So, they'll put their stops at the high and then as soon as it flips, it's on like Donkey Kong. And I'm not looking for I obviously I want to be in here but I'm not. So I get in as cheap as humanly possible with the most amount of upside. Right? So we buy this thing and we are I'm out of half of it now. But let me show these. So I started today because of the momentum and today was the first time that they actually halted the damn thing. Well they did the other day but now they're starting to really panic and you're starting to get those 100 point moves and 100 point swings after a dogee looked like it was going to end it. So we were up $150. We trimmed it and I want to just show this because I think it's really interesting. And here we were up that was another long up 100% in a week on this dumb thing. Uh up 50%. I'm not owning it because the car business is good. I'm owning it because a bunch of morons all shorted the same name, right? Don't short names where there's 14 days to cover because this is what happens. You might be able to get out because you're retail, but institutions that are shorting size, they're absolutely hosed. the calls on this to me it's absolutely insane. So I would actually if you're uh into options you might want to look at these going into the week. It's super interesting. I have another one that you know hopefully I I'll put together. Maybe I can show you guys this Saturday. That's it.