It Happened Again…

Today's number is seven, as that's the consecutive amount of months that we've been up on the NASDAQ since liberation day lows. And it brings with it some very interesting statistics, whether you're an investor or trader.

But maybe even more surprising is that we just got a second trigger on the Hindenburg omen. Yes, we were just discussing it yesterday, but now that we're getting a cluster, that changes everything. As markets hit trend lines and we see some interesting statistics start to appear from Wall Street on maybe sector rotation, we've got a lot to discuss in this special weekend edition. Don't go anywhere, guys. We're covering stocks, commodities, and cryptos for everything that you need to know right now.

Well, welcome back everyone to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson, and in today's video, we're covering the macro, the data, and of course, what has Wall Street been up to. They have been very sneaky, and I did want to just wish everyone a happy Halloween. If you do celebrate it, I hope you're having a great time with your family and friends.

Now let's discuss what happened this week because of course, we've seen Amazon, Google, Nvidia, and semiconductors do very well. But other parts of the market, specifically consumer defensive, actually have been struggling. Now, why is this important? Well, it all has to do with market rotation, and we'll be discussing that later on today's show, along with some stats that I think you'll find interesting when you look at the last three months of what Wall Street has been putting their money into.

Now, just a quick reminder, if you haven't already signed up for the VIP free weekly newsletter, do so. I've got a special coming out this weekend about the Hindenburg Omen, and it will have an exclusive chart in it that I think you'll very much enjoy. We do appreciate the support, so hopefully you can support us by checking that out as well.

Now, let's have a look here at OpenAI because this could be a blockbuster hit. Now, I often say when you top a market, generally you're getting a lot of froth, and that froth comes from IPOs. And it looks like here that possibly OpenAI is preparing for an IPO that could value the company at as much as $1 trillion. Yes, you heard that right. This is massive. OpenAI is looking at raising at least $60 billion, and of course, this business burns some cash. But at the same time, it is one of those signs. To put this in context, Cali Cox actually did post over on X and she said that basically an OpenAI IPO at $60 billion will be more than three times as large as the biggest US IPO in the last two decades, which was Visa at $17 billion. Now, I think the most surprising thing of that is remember when Visa IPOed. 2008? Oh, 2026 is going to be very wild, and it could be based on this chart.

Now, this is of course an overlay of where we are right now, or where we're getting towards, because of course, this is exactly how we're currently tracking. And this is inflation today versus the 1970s. Could we see reinflation in 2026? If we're following the similar path of, yes, we beat inflation and oops, we forgot about it, then we would actually start to see inflation tip up around the beginning of '26. And it actually makes sense because if you look at the end of the year, it's expected that probably inflation will moderate more. And then the question is, of course, for this time. It's a great chart. It's over on our X. It's in the links in the description down below, and I do like that one. It's only one data point, but boy oh boy, when you put them over the top of each other, they do look pretty compelling.

So, let's talk about the Hindenburg Omen again. Now, a lot of you guys wanted to know what it is and everything, and I saw a few people in the comments down below. I would suggest you get into ChatGPT or Gemini or something else and just write "Hindenburg Omen," and it'll give you all of the reads of what it is. But the main thing we're focused on here is of course going to be the data surrounding it. We trigger a few times, we get what we call a cluster. And when you get a cluster, yeah, they tend to be a little bit more reliable. So you can see over here we had this massive cluster back in 2018, and that of course ended up in a pretty big sell. We had some clusters coming in to periods such as 2019 late, which obviously ended up being the COVID pandemic stuff. But the key here is that we are starting to get more than one. And we actually found this chart here from Tom McClellan, which shows here that when we have a lot of signals, it tends to be a stronger overall read.

Now, a lot of you correctly pointed out that it's controversial. Yes, this one doesn't have exactly the best reads with it. Obviously, it gives a bit of false signals over here, guys. But when you start to get a lot of them, that's when you need to be paying attention. And of course, it is usually early. And I think that's the thing that's exciting about an indicator like this, that sometimes it is early. And one of the things that I always like about that is, of course, if you're marrying this up with other bits of data, which we do here on the channel, then it becomes stronger. If it's just by itself, well, yeah, it's not going to really be that good.

Here are the reads that we got when we go all the way back to 1975 from Jay Keell from Sentiment Trader. And you can see here, one week, two weeks, one month later. Usually, it's kind of a little bit more flaky in terms of you get a lot more declining markets. Now, that is controversial because of course November is considered one of the best months of the year for markets, particularly tech, and we've got some stats on that soon in terms of the structure of this market. And I think it's always important to note that this is one scary read, but it is only one scary read. We need to see other signs, and those signs will probably be things such as price action taking out lower lows, which we'll look at soon, because of course, we do have the options flows for next week, and we do start to see a clear picture of where those levels start to appear.

Now let's go over here. Subu trades details with Hindenburg Omen. If we go back just a few years, you can see again, clusters are key. So when we have lots of them, the read tends to be stronger, and I think that's the key that we're looking for. Lots and lots will be paying attention.

Now, at the same time as we get the Hindenburg omen, is another bearish sign. I guess you've seen here, S&P 500 active managers are getting wild. Charlie Bilello over on X has actually got his little read out here, and he says that basically back in April, active managers were down to 35%. This week, their equity exposure jumped to over 100% leverage long with the S&P 500 at 6,900. So what does this all point to? Well, of course, it points to very interesting times for the markets. When you have, of course, fund managers overly exposed to something, then you start to question whether you're getting closer to a potential pullback. And we haven't really seen a significant one in quite a while. The weekly 20 moving average is one of the most powerful generally median or kind of mean reversion techniques. And we haven't seen that weekly 20 moving average hit all the way since liberation day lows. So, could it be coming? It's possible.

But let's have a look now at a couple of broad-based things, and then we'll go over those stats. Rapid increases in household demand for gold ETFs. No surprise that we've seen a massive increase here from China, India, and of course, other countries around the world as well. That led to of course that frothy kind of massive FOMO run that has since declined by 10%. But another story, I think, and this is a long story that we've been discussing also in our private community for quite some time, is the rare earth reserves storyline. Now, this is of course now in mass media and everyone's aware of it, but the US actually only comes in as the seventh largest rare earth reserve holder. China is 44% of the market, it looks like. And of course, even Australia over here, which you'd think would be a little bit higher, is only fourth on the list. So clearly, this is going to be the decade of rare earths. It's going to be the decade of basically metals, minerals, and all sorts of things as we try to fold through AI into the product phase. So remember, we're in the hardware phase at the moment with data centers. Next up, yeah, you better believe it. Some type of dancing robots are coming, guys. And 2026, we'll see the beginning of that. We've already seen one, by the way, robot, if you haven't already seen it, that doesn't really live up to its name. And I think that is going to be the story of most of these moving forward.

Let's talk about the US home price to income ratio. Of course, it is really high. No surprises. It's higher than it was last time before problems happened. And this is of course a worry for many people around the world. But I thought I'd just kind of bring up this one. I saw it while I was browsing to find information for this video. And this just shows you Australia in a nutshell. Now, this is not actually the state that you'd think would be going up the most. This is New South Wales. For many of you, you would think of Sydney being the capital kind of area of that. And you can see here that we've got here $800,000 it sold for in 2023. Well, don't you worry, guys. By 2025, it's over $2 million. Housing in Australia is absolutely insane right now, and it is on fire. And you can see when you look at the stats, I think we've got three or four of the top 10 most expensive places in the world. So if you think it's just happening in the US, of course, it's happening in every nation around the world. Things are expensive, and stuff is certainly starting to get up there. People are chasing too. The FOMO is real.

Let's now take a look at XLK versus XLE ratio. Now, this is an interesting one because basically, yes, we know that technology is going to beat, of course, energy. Energy's been, you know, a bit of a dinosaur of the past, and it's been a long time since energy's actually done better. But it's interesting that it just kind of did this thing where basically tech's been going up, plummeting oil's been going on, and the divergence between both of them has hit what we call a Goldilock scenario. Now, this actually brings with it potential flagged or slowed results for the S&P in terms of gains, which I think is important. And it also brings with it the question of are we about to see energy stocks rising up? Now, you'll know on this channel, we've been a big fan of oil services over the last few months, and you can see here that oil services have actually done pretty well, especially the last couple of weeks.

Now, have a look here. OIH is the fourth best performer when it comes to looking at the month to date. This is for the month of October. Biotechnology as well is the third, and clean energy is actually number one. Now, of course, the best market sector, which is semiconductors, is also up there. Maybe worryingly though, we have regional banks. The crisis continues in these regional banks. And the thing with this government shutdown is obviously it's going to go to the longest one ever, you'd have to think, and all these other things. But this regional bank crisis, people are pulling money out of regional banks right now across the world and they're putting it into the big ones. And that may not be that dumb because basically speaking, what is happening right now is it looks like there is a crisis boiling over in those regional banks that's starting to become a storyline. I think it'll become a bigger storyline over the next coming months into 2026 as we really start to uncover some questionable lending practices, particularly to the private markets, that is the private equity sector. And remember all those loans that are coming due into 2026. If you're not familiar with these, make sure to sub to the channel. We will be discussing them. There's plenty to talk about over the next coming weeks, particularly.

Now, what about clean energy? Has it been doing well? Well, yes, it's been doing amazingly well. Look at this. Gold, metals, some of our favorites. Absolutely the best performance. Again, semiconductors coming in the top four, but the oil services also has been picking up. When you look at it on three months, and if you look at this, Staples and of course things like, again, regional banks haven't been doing as well. It does kind of show us that there is a clear sign that Wall Street is starting to get ahead of itself, or get like ahead of maybe the general press, especially when it comes to certain sectors that are rising up. And it's always important to look at rotation because that's where you really beat the market. It's not just owning the S&P 500 or NASDAQ. If you want to beat it, you've got to look for the rotation. And of course, we do do these monthly returns.

Now, we talked about the seven months up in a row. The S&P has actually been six months up in the row, I believe, but seven for the NASDAQ. And it might mean that, okay, well, wait a second. Does that mean we have to have a pullback? Well, interestingly, it's not very common. And when we tend to go on these runs, seven seems to be the big number that often stops the market. According to Subu Trade, it's stopped it pretty much every time except for one over the read since 1986. And this means that this month, even though November is meant to be very strong, could be the shakiest. And it's going to be one of those ones that we need to watch each way. It's not going to be diabolical based on the stats, but it could get a little bit weaker.

Here are the data stats for when you're up 15% year-to-date coming into October. Again, from Ryan Detrick, November, December, very positive usually, but I think the key is, is it's the next two months that you have to look at as a data stat. Remember, we've been talking about from here into January is usually positive 95% of the time. And Wayne's study later on shows a 39 and one in terms of positive correlation. So, it's not so much the month of November. Yeah, that possibly could be selling actually, even though everyone's going to go bullish on it. And it could instead just be what are you doing over the next two months that's most important.

Let's have a look now at Blue Curti's details here for the last couple of years in November. Yep, they've all been positive. Of course, here are some of the weaker ones for both the Russell and the S&P, but in general, they're not down that much, even if they do see declines. And actually, when we get reads such as what we've got right now, the max drawdowns are not that much either in these months. The other thing here is you can see even if we go over all of the details here for November, December returns when we have these 15% over year on years, they again, the pullbacks, yes, they can get in the five, maybe even one time, nine, but generally speaking, have a look at the percentage change. 95% yes, you get a little bit of drawdown, but overall, it still looks positive. And I always say it's better to go with the structure that we know coming into things than than just guessing and going with this idea that, oh, I think it's overpriced, because of course, that would not have done you well so far this year, and in fact, hadn't really done well for quite some time.

Let's have a look at the structure now. The best analog we have is obviously this type of thing, which funnily enough, if it was true and we were following it perfectly, actually has weakness here in November, effectively into strength into the end of the year, which obviously comes into 2026, and then of course, we have that January bigger to maybe February bust, which is that kind of traditional time. February particularly can be weak for markets in the US. So, interesting one here from Mark, and of course, one of the best analogies right now when it comes to markets.

So, let's skip from the S&P and stocks over to Bitcoin and what's going on there. And you'll notice that Bitcoin, of course, has been struggling. Now, most people are dealing with, are we at the end of a Bitcoin having cycle or the beginning of something new? Now, I think it's an interesting stat here because there are a decent amount of them in 2024, I guess, which is when the S&P 500 is within 1% of its all-time highs, while Bitcoin's actually below its all-time highs. We don't see that much more selling generally on Bitcoin. Now, I'm not sure about this stat, but what I do think is that even if we do go down here, the $98K on Bitcoin and between $94 and $98K is going to be everything. Whether we get a WO off and it actually confirms shorting off, or we get some type of nice bullish move off there. That is going to be one of the key levels.

Another thing that's been rising up recently has been silver shorting. Now, everyone's trying to short silver, and again, when they try to short it, that can be pretty good for squeezes. You can see last time we got that massive squeeze. This time around, of course, we've got a massive squeeze, and we followed the whole way through. I think when we get the updated data for this, we're going to find that the squeezes got wiped recently. So, just be careful when we're looking at those data stats. I think we need new updated ones. When we get them, I'm pretty sure there's going to be a lot of uh a lot of wiped shorts based on those parabolic moves we got there.

S&P 500's six-month rate of change is very strong. Again, that tends to mean strength is coming. And do remember, this has been a great earnings season. So, speaking of earnings, we are at like an 86% beat rate. Amazon just did so well, guys. It was just it was a phenomenal gap up. One of our favorites at the moment. Obviously, Google doing really well. Consumer discretionary seems to be still beating out Staples, which is important. So, it really brings up, you know, just a continuation here of what we've currently seen in the earnings results.

Now, what about gold? Well, gold has been doing okay. So, gold has obviously been one of our favorite investment assets of the last two years. We recently turned bearish on it for the short term, and we saw, of course, it fell off really quickly. Now, when that happens, I've just had this in every video so far because what I want to just show is that when we sell 10%, we actually got 11% down so quickly. Remember, our aim was between 10 and 20% decline. Then we usually find a base. In fact, 100% of the time over the next two months, we're based off. So, what that means is the downside becomes more limited now, and the upside becomes more exciting. So, if you're a gold bug, I think the sell-off that we needed to have has now happened, and hopefully it doesn't get too much worse.

This week's earnings, Palantir will be probably the one you guys are all looking at. This is of course been a stock that's doing very, very nicely recently. We've also got AMD as well, which is going to be very volatile, and of course, ARM as well, which I've been looking at in our private community. So, yeah, plenty of different earning seasons. Although we have of course gone through some of the biggest tech until we get to Nvidia. Have a look here at Palantir. According to the options moves, we're going to be moving between 10 and a half plus or minus during the session. That's going to be an incredible day.

Let's now move over to the options market and the S&P 500 chart. First up, the trend line that we had last week. Basically, just where the markets have kind of found some overbought action before. We did know it was a little overbought. If it gets through 6912, of course, I think it's pushing a 7K plus now, based on the little pullback we've had. And I tracked a couple of things on, including an anchored VWAP. And I just keep getting this, this same level. I keep getting 6750 is a very interesting zone. So, I kind of feel like the market wants to come down to 6750. That's also a daily 20 moving average. Often, that's where we find the stronger market will pick up from. If it gets worse than that, then of course, you're starting to talk about 6,600.

So let's have a look at the first up the levels for of course the Monday session. You can see here again, options low, funnily enough, coming in at 6750ish. And if we have a look now at the overall puts, you can see some interesting things here because people are starting to stack them again. And I always get annoyed when people stack them if you want a little bit lower level because you're not going to get that if people stack. It just makes it so that the street doesn't want to sell off too much. 6820 is the Monday session. Then of course, when we go into Tuesday, you can kind of see here that it's more dispersed. Now, 6750 is starting to be struck up. So again, depending on how the action goes, if the market does start to sell off, I think 6750 is a very, very interesting level. So that's of course going to have some correlation on it. In terms of the upside, it's all about 6912. We get past that, we're looking at probably a 7K plus on Tesla. Positive gamma back. We held the support. So if you've been positive on Tesla, that's very good. And you can see here 500 is clearly the strike everyone's aiming for because it is through all of the expirations. And it's funny about Tesla because he's the most simple when it comes to options. Everyone just stacks round numbers because it's so heavily traded by retail, and it's like no one really ever learns, I guess. But at least we can use it here on the channel. So for for now, we're in positive gamma, and the market did pick up the zone you'd want it to pick up on.

Nvidia at 202 is okay. Of course, 205 to 210 is probably going to get further bullish momentum. And you can see here when it comes to IBIT, we've got about 60 in terms of the put wall still coming through. So 60, 61. So that's basically saying where Bitcoin is right now is effectively a pretty key support. And if we drop this, then things get kind of wild on the Bitcoin markets. Maybe we do go under 100, hit 98, then we find out whether this cycle is really over or not this time round.

What about gold? Well, we've talked about this. 360 for gold seems to be the put support. And now we're getting about a 370 kind of level here for call. So, basically, we're at about resistance at this point.

Now, let's go over to some lead indicators. First up, financials have been declining versus the spy. Now, it's always important to note these things because of course, when we have things like specifically the regional banks doing so poorly, and you can see here they're not doing well versus the S&P, that tells us there's something a little wrong potentially in the water. And in this case, you can see this is what happened back before we got the Silicon Valley Bank kind of problem which got bailed out. It also was a declining factor through all of 2018 into the 2020 fall. So yeah, it's not great when you've got regional banking lagging so far behind. And I think there are some problems here that we'll discuss more in other videos.

What about Amazon? Well, Amazon gapped up, very strong earnings from the most important stocks. You know, everything other than maybe Meta, which of course did fall off a lot. This one has been weak. It fell under 680. Other than this, you know, really everything's kind of been performing incredibly well. And Meta's result wasn't a horror show. It's just that everything's priced to perfection at this point. Semiconductors, you can see here, are still beating the spy. That's always a positive sign in the market. So, even if we get dips, you'd have to think buyers are going to be around. And again, here, if we look at consumer discretionary versus staples and equal weight, just again, very strong here from the American consumer.

So, in general, you've just got to kind of look at this market and say, okay, well, do we have any problems on the bonds markets? Do we see high yield junk, you know, high yield bonds freaking out? The answer is quite simply no, not at this point. Do I think they will in the future? Sure. And you might have seen today that Barry came out and he's obviously talking about bubbles again. So, Michael Burry's back at it. But remember, when bubble is the discussion, it's generally not over. When it's the new norm, oh, it's terrifying. And I think we will enter the new norm at some point soon.

Let's have a look at the US dollar. This has been a very nice trade. Congrats if you've been doing this. This was a good trigger, and it just shows you again, quality TA does tend to work out, which is really, really nice. I actually have a strategy for this type of thing in my day trading masterclass for a quick plug underneath. It's not actually day trading. It's actually what I coin position-based trading. But the key here is to of course keep things repeatable. And this actual statement here comes from that course, which is of course, have the patience to see the market give you the flow read because remember, you are looking for the traps. The way that you're going to do really well over the next decade, especially in the faster markets, is going to be the psychology of it. It's all about psychology and flows.

Now, for where the dollar is going to, first resistance 9980, then if we get through that, potentially 10160. So again, everyone says in the press, oh, the dollar's over, but temporarily, you know, this is what tends to happen. We have to give some faith back. So we get we get back up.

Now, what about gold? Still stabilizing down at the lows. Nothing really to update here. Let's have a quick look at the weekly. Wasn't really a shocking close or anything. Daily 50 is still at around 38.50, and silver hit the daily 50, which was a sweet level. Came up, hit the supply, then found a little bit of shorting. So no surprises there. A lot of you are going to say, is could this be an inverse head and shoulders? It certainly could, but I'd like to see more defined right shoulder before that happens. And obviously, if you picked up the daily 50, I guess congrats to you so far.

Oil, something similar. Could it be an inverse head and shoulders? Certainly could. Level to watch, 63. And as we said, there was a good short up here. But I'd be break-evening that or even taking some profit off because it's clearly this very interesting zone for oil. And as we saw before, energy stocks have been obliterated compared to the compared to technology. And you can see here, things like oil services, just I actually think it improved over here in September. But Wall Street seems to have been building a position in things like this for a little while. So they triggered it about a week and a half ago now. And it just shows you again, there are different areas to make money in these markets.

Now let's talk about Tesla. It held the daily 20. It bounced up. It gave us a pretty interesting weekly close. It is now the best weekly close ever. Very nice. Now, I like that a lot because of course, that's the type of thing you would want to see. Also, it probably helps that that other robot thing, which I still don't remember what it's called. The one that looks like a humanoid, but they made it small, and I I don't know. I don't even know what they did with it, but it doesn't look like that's much. So, you can go check out the research on that if you're interested. Maybe we'll cover it this week coming. But I tell you what, nice weekly close. Pretty good for Tesla. Let's see if that can come through again. Of course, proceed with caution. Like anything, yeah, that's good strong flow. We've seen good strong positive gamma, but it doesn't mean it's going to work every time. Like anything in trading, it's playing the odds and the stats.

Let's have a look here at the Chinese market. Series of higher highs and higher lows has been weaker recently. Definitely defending a big bear point here. So, we'll see whether we get through 265 this week. And as we mentioned, the NASDAQ is ripping. It's just done some mega monthly. That is seven in a row. The weekly obviously just keeps pushing up. No weekly 20 moving average for anyone. If we do go down, 24K would be the level that we'd find usually the buyer. But for now, it's really that S&P read that we're looking at.

Now, let's move over to the cryptoverse. Now, crypto is an interesting one because this anchored VWAP off the low continues to hold up. It also just so happens to be that IBIT level. So it also happens to be the put wall. Now, if we lose this, we could go down to the 98. This is where I think a lot of decisions will be made. There'll be a lot of hunts around here. A lot of stop-losses, a lot of people saying it's all over. Yeah, that would be pretty wild. 1165 bulls potentially back. So this is certainly the key. Right now, we're stuck within the range. Some people would be trying to buy here, sell here, but yeah, I think we're I think it's one of the most interesting charts on the markets right now. I'm looking forward to seeing how this story plays out and obviously covering it.

Another thing for this week is we're meant to have, of course, jobs numbers. Who knows what's going on with that. I guess who knows, really. We'll update as we get more information on that one, and I'll check out whether we will be seeing it. But basically speaking, the jobs numbers usually are the most important read right now. So, of course, we expect that when we do eventually get these things, we'll we'll see probably a bit of volatility from that news.

If you enjoyed today's video, then make sure to of course subscribe. Thank you so much for being here. Apologies also for the terrible mic quality in the last video. Unfortunately, I lost my soundboard, but it's back now. Did all the things that need to get that back on board, so it should be really clean, and a lot of you had some pretty funny comments to say. Remember to follow us over on X, follow me on LinkedIn, check out the newsletter as well for the special this weekend. And of course, if you're interested in finding out more about what we do, you can check out our courses on their sale. Thank you so much, guys. Have a great weekend. Bye for now.