Transcription
Bitcoin is at 937 dollars at the moment I'm speaking to you, and we're going to take a step back because we have a lot of interesting things to say about Bitcoin. There's a setup that's particularly interesting right now. We're practically back on our famous trendline that has rejected us since our ATH on October 6th. So we're going to try to look together at what's happening, take a step back because psychology is starting to play a predominant role during these phases, these rebound phases after a massive bearish trend. And we're going to look a bit at what's going on, see what our indicators are telling us. I remind you that here we have a strategy that is a quantitative strategy. Our objective is to understand the market and apply a strategy worthy of an investment fund, meaning a strategy based on risk management, on rational capital allocation, to be able to invest serenely, coldly, in the long term, and not be caught by our emotions, our biases, etc.
So currently, we are back around $93,000. We had two good bullish candles yesterday and also today. We are back here at the resistance levels that we broke through on the upside. And what's interesting to see is that we still seem to be in a really positive, really bullish dynamic. There are no reversal signals for now, there's a relatively strong trend. If we look a bit at what's happening with the order flow and on a slightly shorter term, we see that we have precisely here the rally that had, for now, been driven by spot markets. You see here, we are on spot markets, meaning it's real buying. And well, you see that since yesterday, and yesterday at the start of the day, we started to see demand on derivative markets. So, we had a confluence between derivative contracts, derivative contracts here and spot markets here, which means we have massive demand and so we are liquidating all the people who had their shorts just above their price and in this case, just above the previous highs, sorry, and the previous high was right here at the $93,000 level. So, we have just broken through this zone, feeding on all this liquidity.
So, we had talked about the fact that we had liquidity to recover here. We made a price structure that Bitcoin used to do quite a bit back then, you know, like Bart Simpson's hair, meaning, hop, and here, tick tick tick tick tick tick tick, and we go back down. Okay? These are setups that are quite, quite classic and were very classic back then. Well, you see that here, this zone is a zone that we systematically pierce. Bearish candle, bullish candle, bearish candle, bullish candle. So, well, you see here Bitcoin has a lot of strength. You see that the RSI has already gone into overbought territory on a 2-hour timeframe, and we'll come back to that in this video. Here, it's a momentum indicator, as are many, many indicators, and there's a huge confusion on the subject, so we're going to debunk that together.
Well, first, let's look a bit at what's happening on the daily. You see that currently, we are back not very far from our bearish trendline. We talked about it with a price target that is currently around $95,000. Well, anyway, the trendline is bound to be broken, even if it's just with a wick. Okay? So, to trap as many people as possible, whether bullish or bearish, we will very likely break this trendline. Okay? We have accumulated a lot of liquidity below it. You know that many people trade trendlines, especially when they are obvious like this one. We already have three points, we are approaching the fourth. So, in fact, we have two types of traders. The somewhat beginner trader who will trade breakouts. So, in fact, they will simply place their order here to enter a position on the breakout of this trendline. They will place a stop order, let's say below the next, below the next support. If the next support, let's say it's this one, okay? Hop, they will place it just below this previous support. And they will potentially target a 2:1 or a return to the next, to the next resistance which is here. Okay? So, this is a bit of the trade of beginners who don't know technical analysis too well. You know the Dunning-Kruger effect which tells us that potentially, people when they learn a field, they feel like they master that field very quickly and they say, "Well, trading is super simple, this or that field is super simple." And well, in fact, it's generally these people who, full of certainty, realize shortly after that it's actually much more complicated than that. So here you have beginners, and conversely, you have short-sellers who will take short positions saying the trend is bearish. And it's true, the trend is bearish. So, we will position ourselves here with short orders right here, place the stop order above the previous resistance levels, and a price target at the support levels, for example, here. Okay?
So, in fact, you see that we have an obvious move to make when it's like this. It's a move that will allow us to liquidate both sides. Okay? So, it's simply a breakout. So, we get everyone on board, okay, who bought the breakout. Okay, we also get everyone on board who sold here. We break the previous support level, so here with an upward movement. And then, we reverse downwards. And in that case, you have liquidated the first group. So, the shorts here, we went to get their stop orders. So, they are no longer in the running. And then, you see those who entered right here through this breakout. Well, then we liquidate them with a downward movement and thus we also exit them. Which means that in a single move, okay, just by doing this, so let's say just by doing this, we will liquidate a lot, a lot of people. Okay? Buyers and sellers. Okay? This can happen in both directions, it can happen in both directions, but obviously it's more interesting to do it on the break of this bearish trendline since we will bring in the longs. Okay? Hop, we bring them in, hop, we exit them, and hop, we rebuild like this. And then, it's great. You've exited the sellers, you've exited the buyers, and you can rebuild a trend by having liquidated as many people as possible on derivative contracts. Which means that exchanges feed on these kinds of movements. So, it's quite perfect for them.
You see from a momentum perspective, precisely, that we have bullish momentum, okay? We have buyers, and you can see it on the RSI. We have two troughs with, you see, rising highs. Okay? So, we have a real W structure. This indicates momentum, and this is where a big, big problem for the majority of people comes in. Okay? The majority of people take indicators as absolute values, whereas that makes no sense. Okay? Again, I'll tell you. If you take the RSI this way as an indicator, like, below 30, I'm in an oversold indicator, and therefore, oversold means I'm smart, I'm buying fear, I'll position myself at that moment. If you buy here, okay, when we cross 30, or even worse, when we are at 30, you buy here. Okay? This is a momentum indicator, it's a trend indicator. It tells us that the price dynamic is bearish, is oversold. Okay? So, here, during this entire phase, you see, we will make lower, lower, lower, lower prices each time until we reach our climax level. But it could last much longer. And in the past, well, I don't know if I have examples here recently, but what's certain is that on Bitcoin, we could stay for a long time in oversold phases, for example, here, you see, we started to be in oversold around here on this candle, then we stayed there for quite a long time, okay, for almost ten days. And what's important to know is that what matters to us is not entering an oversold state, but exiting it. Okay? Exactly the same for the bullish side, and we'll talk about that just after on the oversold part, if you want to reposition yourself, what you need to do gradually is to watch when we will leave this oversold zone. Okay? We entered this oversold zone, and you see that here, we started to leave the oversold zone. At that moment, it indicated that the sellers were, so to speak, exhausted. They had given their all on the bearish side, they maintained strong pressure, and well, gradually, they had more difficulty maintaining a bearish trend. And there, it's already a good signal, an interesting signal. And this is the case for many, many indicators. Okay? We will have, for example, indicators, even social indicators, okay? If we talk about the Fear and Greed Index. If we look at it a bit, you see that we can sometimes stay in bullish trends for a very long time. If you look here during this bull run phase of 2020, we started to be in extreme euphoria zones, 89% Fear and Greed Index, that makes you dream, I know, because we haven't had it for quite a few months. Well, 89 Fear and Greed Index, at the time, we were at $16,000. Okay, we had a Fear and Greed Index that stayed in levels between 80 and, well, between 90 and 100% until reaching a climax around $40,000. Whoever sold here thinking, "That's it, we're in a euphoria zone, I'm taking my profits, I'm getting out of the market," well, they exited with a potential missed gain of 120% performance. Okay? So, obviously, it's important to take this into account, but it's very important to see when the trend is weakening. When do we go from euphoria levels of 93? Ah, you see here, 84, 78, 88, etc. Here, gradually, we are decoupling. Okay, this tells us that despite the extreme euphoria period we may have had, there's a stagnation of price and a euphoria level that's starting to decrease a bit. That's danger. Okay. Exactly the same when we are at the RSI level. If I show you a bit what's happening from the RSI perspective, right here on the overbought zones. Okay. Here, we enter an overbought zone at this moment. Okay? Should we sell? No. However, you see that here, at this moment, we are leaving the overbought zones a bit. Here, it indicates a danger signal. Okay? We don't settle below it. We immediately re-enter the overbought levels. And you see that when we truly leave the overbought zone on the RSI, we are here, you see, right here. And we find ourselves here at a time when it is indeed necessary to take profits.
So, you have to accept not selling the absolute top. Okay? And this is again where it will be the parade with the fact that we are precisely in a bullish recovery. We will have all the people who said, "Yes, I told you to buy and so on." Well, we also said on the channel that we should start buying, positioning ourselves, and so on, but anyway, it doesn't matter, all of that is a story of ego, or precisely of reassuring ourselves about what we did well, and so on, FOMO, and so on. All of that is a matter of emotions in reality. So, there's no point in saying, "I did better than others," or "I'm well-positioned," or "I sold, but this rebound is a rally of disbelief and anyway, it's the last rebound before the bearish trend, and so on." It doesn't matter in reality. Okay? What matters is to move forward rationally, and here, rationally, we see that we have a recovery of buying momentum. So, indeed, if we wait for all the confirmations to be positioned, again, we will be positioned far too late. And this is a big problem that I also see in the majority of content available on YouTube, which in my opinion misleads many beginners. Okay? Because I'll explain simply here, during these phases, there's a lot of panic. Okay? At the beginning of bearish phases, many people say, "It's okay, it's just a dip in a bullish trend, we need to reload, and so on." Then, as time goes by and losses accumulate, there comes a moment when there's a psychological switch, and the majority of people who were bullish, well, we move into a phase where the majority of people are bearish. Okay? This generally lasts for a while, and during these phases, we will have many people who, on every bearish move, say, "Well, in fact, I'm right to be bearish, and so on." So, it will really validate their feeling of "I am bearish, and I am right to be." Okay? And so, you see that here, for example, we had in the same way a very powerful bearish trendline that was rejecting us for a long time because we had created it similarly from January 20th, the date of Donald Trump's inauguration. We retested it here on January 31st. We retested it here on February 21st. Here, we got very close on March 2nd. Here too, we worked on it in March. End of March. Okay? And finally, we end up breaking it at that moment. When we break it, you see that at that moment, I can tell you, for those who weren't there or don't remember very well, at that moment, there was a lot of disbelief. Okay? Okay, it's the beginning of something. We go from 74,000 to 86,000. Okay? We gain $12,000 in a straight line. This reminds us a bit of the current situation. Currently, we were at 80,000 at our low and we went up to 93,000. Okay. We gain $12,000 in a straight line. Well, here, it's the same thing. Here, you see that in a straight line, we reach this zone. And here, once again, although well-intentioned, people will tell you, "No, I'm waiting for confirmation. I'm waiting for confirmation because we're just breaking the trendline. It's probably a trap. We need to be careful. We could have a reversal. I'll buy back when we're in the discount zone between 79,000 and 76,000 dollars. I'll buy back at that point." Well, consequently, the market, of course, traps the majority of people, so it sends a very strong bullish impulse, and we find ourselves at the $94,000 levels. At that moment, we find ourselves under resistance and under the famous order block right here which had propelled us downwards. I'll take the liberty of going back a bit on these phases because it's extremely important to understand what happened, to understand precisely the mistakes of the past so as not to repeat them. Okay? So, doing a bit of pedagogy on past elements is really essential for me. At that moment, we were really under this major resistance. Similarly, you buy on support, you sell under resistance, it's not the time to buy. Okay? If there's a rejection, well, it's this famous rejection that will be the most powerful. It's not the time to buy. We could have precisely the famous hop and then here, buy back from that moment on a return to this accumulation zone, and so on. Well, ultimately, the market sends an impulse, and at that moment, we say, "Well, ultimately, yes, probably we are in a good zone to enter, and so on." Except that you missed the best part of the performance. Here, you missed 40% of the rise in Bitcoin. You find yourself again under resistance right here. So, potentially, it's not a good level to enter either, because you're entering after a 40% rise and under resistance. So, it's not really ideal. Then you see that ultimately, you are quite close to what will ultimately be our top. Okay? And when you start to re-enter, when you say, "That's it, it's the right time," and so on, you enter here, you're happy, you make a bit of performance, then the market reverses, and then here you say, "No, we're at support levels, it's not time to sell, we have a breakout, hop, we create a bullish trend," you say, "No, it's not time to sell." Finally, hop, you say, "Here we broke the $100,000 level." Yes, but it's not really the most interesting, the most important level because you have to wait for confirmation of that level right now. For example, we hear about the confirmation of the bear market, which is 74,000. What do you do? That means you sell at 74,000. We were at 126,000. I mean, if you wanted to sell, you have to sell before. Okay? When we sold, we sold at 110,000. Okay? In our investment circle, when we started to enter, we started to enter at 102,000 a bit. We also re-entered here at 87,000. We made gradual entries throughout this bearish phase to be able to regain control and to be able to resume the bullish trend at times when the risk-reward becomes interesting. Obviously, after such a significant bearish trend, okay? Well, obviously, we were going to have a rebound. I mean, many people predicted that. The question was, would the rebound happen here? Would it happen here, or would it happen here? Okay. So, obviously, you shouldn't be too hasty or too greedy. And therefore, you have to segment positions. And this is extremely important. Investing is not an on/off switch. Okay? You shouldn't just say, "I'm buying 100% of my capital in stablecoins, I'm putting it into crypto," or "I'm selling and moving 100% of my crypto capital into stablecoins." No, you have to modulate. Okay? And this is the added value we have in our investment circle. It's precisely about making positions typical of investment fund risk management. When you hear an investment fund that has priced in news, what does "pricing in news" mean? Okay? When we see, for example, that there's an 89.2% probability of an interest rate cut at the meeting next Wednesday by the US Federal Reserve. Well, that means we probably have good news coming within a week. We have a 90% probability of having this good news. So, what are we going to do? Well, we buy in anticipation. This means we say, well, if we have an interest rate cut, then we'll have ease in the monetary system. What does that mean? It means banks will be able to grant loans at lower rates, will be able to refinance at lower rates. And so, this will help to lubricate the economy a bit. This means companies will be able to take out loans. If they take out loans, they'll be able to buy equipment, hire, and so on. So, gradually, they will develop. They will generate profits. And you know that in the stock market, these profits are valued, what we call the P/E ratio, the price-to-earnings ratio, which tells us that a company will be valued X times its earnings. So, if we increase the X, the stock value will rise. But if we increase the earnings, the stock value will also rise. And so, we find ourselves in a situation where stocks should be able to rise due to the increase in interest rates here. So, this is precisely the underlying reason for what's really happening, because when we say that an interest rate cut is positive for risk markets, yes, but it's through the mechanism I just explained to you. Okay? And so, this is important because it will tell us that if we have a 90% chance of this good news, well, I have every interest in starting to position myself. I won't wait for successive confirmations, and so on. You need to understand that trading, and this is also true for investing, is about moving forward in an environment where we have partial information. Okay? And partial information means, well, we're not sure we'll have an interest rate cut. We're not sure who will replace Jerome Powell. We're not sure about Donald Trump's news on macroeconomics, and so on, about the fact that we will potentially have a significant tax cut. You see, Trump is starting to announce that we will have the end of income tax soon. Well, you see, all of this is uncertainty. But this is somewhat positive uncertainty. We say, well, if we estimate that there's a significant probability of such a move, then we need to start pricing it in. And what does "pricing it in" mean? Okay? When you say, "Yes, this or that news is already priced in." What does that mean? It means that the smartest and most structured investment funds on this planet, it's not really a question of intelligence, it's a question of strategy and structure. That's why, on our end, in the investment circle, we're not smarter than others. We just try to apply a strategy that is defined, reliable, and especially rational. Rational, okay? We are not subject to our emotions, we are not subject to our biases, okay? To a certain extent, at least, we try to be. So, obviously, here, what we need to do to price it in is to say, if I estimate that I have a 90% probability of an interest rate cut, then I will allocate, for example, 90% of my capital to risk assets. Okay? And if this rate goes down, okay? If I go from 90% to 50%, I will lighten my positions gradually. Okay? All of this will always be in the direction of probabilities. Okay? We have several scenarios currently. You see that we will gradually arrive at this trendline. Currently, we have broken this support level. There's a strong probability that we will recover the zone we've been targeting for a long time, which is the $96,000 to $98,000 zone. Okay? It's very likely that we will recover this zone. So, at that point, there will be several scenarios. Okay? The scenario here, which is the first scenario, is to go for this zone. But there's also the scenario of being rejected. You allocate probabilities to each scenario, and then you decide yes or no. Do I decide to be positioned at X percent on my portfolio? Do I decide to lighten up? Do I decide to shift towards Bitcoin, towards altcoins, and so on? Okay? So, this is obviously all this pedagogy that I'm trying to explain to you. Well, this is precisely what we will apply coldly and rationally in our investment circle. Okay?
If we look a bit at our indicators, you see that here on the Bitcoin ETFs, you see that we had inflows yesterday. Now, this was offset by Ark Invest, which sold quite a bit, but you see that IBIT, BlackRock, bought a lot. Okay? Now, it's not yet significant. Be careful, on significant days, we've had up to almost $1 billion in purchases by BlackRock in a single day. Okay? So, we're at 10% of the biggest days. It's not exceptional either. However, you see that this comes at a time when we had quite low volatility, quite low inflows and outflows on the ETFs. Here, you simply have the translation in histogram of what you had in table format. Okay? So, here, we see that we have strong buying pressure, strong selling pressure. It's calming down, okay? It's calming down with a structure inversion. We have a reversal in the structure, a reversal in momentum, we are at an interesting location. So, obviously, when you have these three parameters: location, structure, momentum, it's a good time to become a buyer again. Okay? Now, obviously, it doesn't happen all at once, it's not the moment you buy 100%. It wasn't the moment I bought 100% when we were at $102,000. It wasn't the moment I bought, or put all my ammunition in, when we were at $87,000 or $86,000, and so on. This is obviously something you need to keep in mind, you need to structure and segment your positions. Okay? This is the only way to average your purchase price downwards and average your selling price upwards. Okay?
Okay. So, let's go back to the news a bit, and in fact, we've had very interesting news, which is from Bank of America, which recommends its clients to add up to 4% of their portfolio in Bitcoin and crypto. So, this is exceptional news because, in fact, you had two major institutions that were still anti-crypto. You had Bank of America, which is now changing its tune and saying, "Look, 4% is quite a lot. 4%," I remind you that traditional finance deals with sums that don't make any crypto investors envious. We're talking about trillions. So, obviously, here, 4% represents truly astronomical sums. Okay? And we also have Vanguard, okay, which was also on the sidelines. You know that Vanguard is one of the main ETF issuers in the world, along with BlackRock and all its other competitors, who have indeed passed the Bitcoin ETF milestone. Well, they now authorize spot trading of crypto and crypto ETFs on their platform. So, this gives access to over 50 million clients to ETFs that have already been accepted. So, Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana. And again, this provides leverage for Bitcoin to find buyers. Again, and I'll never say it enough, the price of Bitcoin, like the price of any asset, only rises by the law of supply and demand. Liquidity, all of that only matters because it creates demand. Okay? To see Bank of America proposing to its clients a portion of their portfolio in Bitcoin. Whether it's Vanguard, whether it's BlackRock in the past, whether it's whales, whether it's anyone. Every time we have this kind of behavior, it creates buyers. Buyers then trigger purchases with new money. This new money is injected into the market and buys, creating an imbalance between buyers and sellers. And this imbalance will create this price increase. Okay? So, this is obviously what needs to be managed. So, this is good news. Now, it won't happen the day after tomorrow. It's rather positive in the medium term. It's not what determines our buying strategies. You should not buy at this moment, today, Wednesday, December 3rd, because you saw the news that Vanguard will allow its clients to trade spot crypto and crypto ETFs on its platform. This should not be the case either with this Bank of America news. If it is, obviously, it must be based on much more precise indications. Okay? For example, you see here that the funding rates, the financing rates, what we were managing at that moment, right here, you see the funding rate curve on Binance. Well, here, what you see is that we have a slightly bearish trend for a long time. Now, we have bullish recoveries that correspond to moments when we have large imbalance zones. Okay? So, here, on this bearish phase, here, on this bearish phase, here too, hop, on this bullish phase, and so on. So, we have imbalances, but you see that the structural trend is a decrease in funding since, well, precisely, our bottom on November 21st. So, this is very positive. This also means that from a derivative market perspective, from a derivative contract perspective, we especially have sellers who remain in position. And this is positive because, precisely, when we take a step back, we'll take a month of trading on Binance perpetual contracts. You see that here we have quite dark colors, dark blue. This indicates that we have quite little liquidity between $84,000 and $93,000. We have liquidity below, between $80,000 and $67,000. But we have quite a bit of liquidity above us. Okay? We have some here that should bring us around $100,000, and then we have a wall of liquidity here at the $110,000 level, which could precisely mark our reversal zone. Okay? So, reversal or consolidation, meaning that potentially we could go for this, okay? And at that moment, well, either we build a range, okay? Like this, perhaps, or we just consolidate and go back up. In any case, what needs to be done is to manage, it's the principle of active management, it's to manage as we go. Okay? It could be a moment where we just reverse and go back down, okay? But anyway, we can't know that here. It's not a question of "I don't want to tell you what I think" or "I have several scenarios, but I don't want to explain the ins and outs of the different scenarios." No, here it's just that I don't know exactly what will happen because I will look at my indicators. If here, we are at this moment, December 17th, and we are at $109,000, on December 17th, I will adjust based on the indicators that will be given to me. Currently, nothing could have predestined me to say that my indicators would be positioned in such a way on Wednesday, December 3rd, when we are at $93,000. Currently, my indicators allow me to say, do I rather want to stay in position? Do I rather want to exit? Do I rather want to lighten my positions a bit? Do I rather want to reinforce my positions a bit, and so on? You see? So, well, this is obviously, this is obviously the object of your strategy. You must define a strategy or adopt someone's strategy.
Hello, this is the principle of our investment circle. Once again, well, precisely, that's our strategy, which is to be able to take all these indicators, centralize them to precisely make them clear information that allows us to make decisions. You see that at the level of euphoria a little bit on altcoins, here we still have a global loss of euphoria and here you have a bit of a global and long-term picture of what I'm showing you as a table. Here, we have the funding rates, so the financing rates with the different assets. Okay? So here, we have one line equals one crypto. You see that here, we have phases in red which are phases of euphoria, okay? The moments when fundings are very positive, huh. This was the case here at the time in March 2024. This was the case here at the time of Donald Trump's election, between his election and his inauguration, between well the months of November and January 2025, or rather November 2024 and January 2025. And you see that here, we are in phases of extreme fear, phases of fear that we had not reached since the beginning of the cycle, okay? Phases of fear that are well generalized across all altcoins. We had semblances of similar phases around here at the bottom in August-September 2024. We also had these phases during the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy phase around August, September 2023. So here, these are phases that we've had, but you see that we've never had so much concentrated fear on altcoins because here, we have a phenomenon that is a bit different, which is that Bitcoin has largely performed and for many this means that there will simply never be any altcoins. In fact, it calls into question the very existence of these altcoins. This is positive because people haven't understood that well, altcoins are nothing more than startups. Okay? They are startups in the crypto field, but they remain startups. So in fact, they are extremely correlated to an American index called the Russell 2000, okay? Which you can find right here on TradingView. If you look at the Russell 2000, well currently, it is under resistance. Here, the resistance of 2450 points. You had this resistance here which blocked the price in November 2021 following precisely well the resurgence of inflation and so on. Here in December 2024, following Donald Trump's election, we had a new drop, well following Donald Trump's election which led the American Federal Reserve on all of this, in fact, which led the American Federal Reserve to fear its tariffs and therefore to stop the pace of rate cuts. And once again, well the least liquid assets which are well startups, altcoins and so on, they benefit enormously from the influx of liquidity because well when you only have 100 dollars in savings, huh, if you meet a friend who tells you "I only have 100 dollars to invest", you won't tell them "Bet it all on this little crypto". you'll tell them "Well, maybe bet it all on the MSCI World, bet it all on S&P 500 ETFs", I don't know, assets that are rather well capitalized and especially things that have less risk of capital loss. Okay? So obviously, it will only be when you have capital of well I don't know, if you have someone who tells you "I have a million dollars to invest", you'll tell them "Okay, well, you can invest 900,000 dollars in such a way and then the remaining 100,000, put them in altcoins because if it performs, you'll make an enormous performance. So in fact, it's this pocket of liquidity, you have to reach it and to reach it, you need a lot of buyers. And to have a lot of buyers, generally, you need a lot of liquidity. And liquidity often comes from rate cuts. Okay? So often, it doesn't mean always, but it often comes from rate cuts. This is also why we look so much at rate cuts. So here, to think that there will never be any more altcoins is like thinking that there will never be any more seasons in which American small caps will perform. You see that we have quite a bit of pullback, huh, on this Russell 2000 index. We have news, we have data that goes back to 1987. So that's quite a few years, and you see that here, over these 40 years of trading, we have a trend that is beautiful and more or less a parabola. Okay? So here we obviously have phases of range, phases of consolidation, phases of expansion, phases of correction, and so on. Here we are under resistance, so we've come a long way here, obviously, between well the bottom of September 2022 which roughly corresponds to our bottom in the crypto part. You see that during this bull run phase of the crypto part, well in fact, we had a bull run on stocks, it's on American small caps. Now, we might get the impression that well, we are in our little crypto world and so on, and that well, the entire crypto part is very different from the American small cap part. If you think, I don't know, about a logistics company in the US that has its clients in the US and so on and is listed on the Russell 2000, well you say "It has no relation to my little crypto, to my meme coin and so on." Even though in fact, it has a relation which is liquidity, which is that buyers position themselves mainly on this type of asset when they have money. Okay? And so this money, it comes well here, it came from the fact that the Biden administration at the time had precisely increased its pace, had taken a somewhat somewhat dovish stance of monetary easing. Okay. And so this was seen at that time when we had precisely a monetary easing policy. Then, hop, a hawkish policy. Finally, we stop cutting rates. We came back to our support zone. So, we had a huge correction on American small caps. A huge correction that we experienced in altcoins, okay? That we experienced during all these months from December to April until the Liberation Day period and so on in the United States. Well, you see that during this period, we suffered enormously on altcoins, and it was the case for American small caps. We are back to our famous highs, and you see that in the past, well, it is precisely the breaks of these major resistances that allow us to trigger really interesting expansion phases and bull run phases. This was the case between November 2016 and August 2018. I remind you for those who were there, huh, I was there in the crypto sector at that time. Well, obviously at that time, you remember that we had exceptional performance on altcoins. Exceptional, okay? Here, same between November 2020, October 2020 and this period which was April 2021. Okay? We had an enormous performance which is the bull run performance, but we didn't have altcoins before, okay? Because altcoins started around that time. In reality, they really started. We really had accessibility to altcoins from 2016-2017. Here, between, well, you see the period from October 2012 to January 2014, we had a bull run on Bitcoin, but we also had at that time a bull run on small American stocks. And once again, you see, we had a structure with a resistance, a resistance, a resistance. we break that, we have a bull run, and so it seems that we ultimately only have three historical bull runs on cryptos. But in reality, this is the crypto historical curve. Okay? If Bitcoin and cryptos had existed at the time in the 90s, okay, or in the 2000s, well here, we would very certainly have had a bull run between September 2003 and June 2007. Okay? And here, what does this tell us? It tells us that at that time, we are under resistance and therefore that we are on the verge of breaking through this resistance and starting again on a bull run phase which could take us much higher in the US Small Cap market and therefore in the market well of cryptos and altcoins in particular. Okay? So I will stop there for this video. I hope you enjoyed it. We've done a little pedagogical recap for those who want to go a little further, especially well, the application of all this pedagogy, the entire strategy part. Don't hesitate to join us in the investment circle. You receive every time you commit, and even for the duration of just one month, you receive two training courses. A first training course in technical analysis, okay? which will really allow you to understand well what we've talked about, Fibonacci retracements, order flow, funding rates, open interest, all these things, you will learn them in this training. We really start from zero, from creating an account on TradingView. So if you are a beginner and so on, I know some of you are. Don't be afraid, anyway, we cover the basics. And the second part is a more strategic part, okay? Here, we will precisely develop the part on how to create a balanced portfolio, how to analyze cryptos on-chain, how well how we will place orders on an exchange, okay? the difference between limit orders, market orders, well all of that in the same logic. Understand my strategy, understand how to apply it, try to progress in the areas which are the quantitative part, so the graphical analysis part, but also all the technical indicators, the on-chain part and so on. You see here for example, I haven't talked about it, I don't really have much time, but you see that here we have interesting news. We have exchanges showing that we have a descending curve, which means that bitcoins are leaving the exchange platforms. So this is positive again in a buyer and seller logic. It means that if this curve goes down, we have fewer bitcoins available for sale. So for equivalent buying pressure, we will have well, we will have less selling against equivalent buying pressure. And therefore, we will have a price increase. Okay? Well, these are things we cover. If you have questions, if it's not clear enough yet, if you don't know if it can bring you something, if you still have doubts, you can simply discuss it with me. I mean, there's no obligation to buy or anything. Here, as a reminder, well, I am certified by the AMF. I am not a financial investment advisor, which means I cannot give you recommendations on your portfolio, personalized recommendations. However, I can help you with the construction, the structuring of your portfolio, answer your questions in a somewhat occasional and pedagogical way. Well, you have doubts about such and such crypto, you have doubts about such and such structure, you have doubts about your portfolio, well don't hesitate, I can at least look at it and then give you a little overview of my point of view on the subject. Okay? So I hope you liked this video. I thank you very much, huh. You are a very, very engaged community, very, very present, and it shows whether in the comments or in our stats and so on. So I thank you very much for that, and I wish you a good week. Well, thank you.