Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin's dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, it's mid-April now. Bitcoin is back at 75K. We have notably swept the high from midday, but we haven't really gone that much higher yet. Um, we did see a similar pattern in 2022 where we had sort of a high in February and then we swept the high in late March. Uh, but that, of course, happened, um, a little bit earlier, right? Like this was a late March high. This is still now about mid-April.
Now, one of the things I I wanted to mention is just seasonality. I want to be clear, seasonality is not everything, and I don't think people should treat it as such. The reason why I talk about it is because it tends to work out like 70% of the time, but there will be times where it doesn't work out. In this case, we talked about weakness into early February where we would find a low and then we discussed weakness into early April. Now, some people are under the illusion that there was not weakness going into early April, but there was, right? You can see that Bitcoin sold off and was weak going into early April where it found a higher low. Remember, windows of weakness do not always accompany lower lows. Sometimes the window of weakness causes Bitcoin to go down and then allows a higher low. And we've seen this before. And actually, one of the comparisons we talked about was just what happened simply in 2018 where Bitcoin found a low at 6K in February. Not that dissimilar from 2026 where Bitcoin found a low in February at 60K and then Bitcoin bounced back up and then came back down and found a higher low in late March, early April. Same thing here, higher low late March, early April. So seasonality still played out, right? Like you had weakness in going into February, you had weakness going into early April, but it did not yield a lower low.
So, what happened back in 2018? Well, back then, Bitcoin bounced back up and then found a lower high in late April and then it swept that high in early May. So, you could argue that that would be something to consider here. And I was thinking like, are there any events that we might want to look towards by the end of April and early May? Well, it's a good thing you asked because, um, there is. And before we get to that, I want people to, uh, if they're curious, they can, to sort of my thoughts, but they don't want to listen to the video, they'd rather read more of like a report and go through a lot of the charts. I did just release another crypto macro risk memo. So, if you go over to BenjaminCowan.com and go to reports, we just released another one. So, we had one back on January 15th of 2026. And on January 15th, that was right here at that lower high. And we just released the second crypto report. Now, we've had two other reports, uh, one in February 15, one on February 15th and one on March 15th. Now we have another one that's just dedicated towards crypto released on April 15th. So I would encourage you to go read that. It might give you some insight into into more into more what I'm thinking about about the market. So again, you can find that at BenjaminCowan.com and it is, of course, completely free. So go check it out if you want to check it out.
Now, the thing that I want to talk about here is how there's there was weakness by Bitcoin in 2018 going into early February and going into early April. Now, when was the next window of weakness after that? The next one, the next low we found was in June, right? It occurred in June. And note the lower high occurred in like late April and then we swept that high in early May. So what event might we consider that could be coming up here in late April, early May? Well, late April, the next Fed meeting. So the next Fed meeting is on April 29th. Okay. Now, in 2018 when Bitcoin had this rally, the local high was on the 25th and then we swept the high on May 5th. Now, it's not only the Fed is meeting in late April, but we're also going to have a Bank of Japan meeting and we'll see what they do if they keep rates constant or if they raise rates. But I just want to put that on your radar.
So in the short term, you could argue that Bitcoin had the window of weakness into early April. It printed a higher low like it did in 2018. And now, in a similar way to 2018, it then rallied up to the bull market support band. Now, it hasn't actually quite made it to the bull market support band. I don't want to, you know, I don't want to suggest that it has to, but that obviously has to be on your radar, right? Always in a bear market, you would say that the bear market resistance band is a place that you could find resistance. And there are times like in say 2022 where Bitcoin got above it briefly. And so what I'd like to do is look at some other moving averages. And one of those is the 100-day moving average. So, the 100-day moving average, Bitcoin, actually already found resistance at it back on January 15th when I released the first report. Now, we're at the same spot, that 100-day moving average. Now, you can see in the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin got rejected by the 100-day moving average, except for March of 2022 where it went above it and then pretty quickly came back down. And you can see back then we were also printing this like higher low structure. Higher lows, higher highs got people bullish, and then it ultimately came back down.
Now I want to be clear about something. There's price-based capitulation, but in my opinion, the more important aspect is time-based capitulation. So if 60K is the low, then I would still expect to test it many more times. Kind of like 2018. Now, in 2018, Bitcoin tested 6K over and over and over again. But then by the end of the year, Bitcoin broke down. Okay, 6K also came into play in 2019 and eventually we broke down below it. So I do want to consider, you know, people to consider that time-based capitulation is more important than price-based capitulation and usually in bear markets, I think it would make sense to assume that they're going to last for more than just a couple, you know, a few months and that, you know, we likely will even if this does break through the 100-day moving average, maybe it goes all the way up to the 200-day. I don't know how high it'll go before it it it it starts to head back down. But these levels are often tested in bear markets. I mean, even in in, uh, 2022 when Bitcoin broke through the 100-day, it actually got rejected at the 200-day moving average. So, I guess that's the argument like if Bitcoin makes it through the 100-day, then perhaps that next major area will be the 200-day moving average. But, it hasn't even really durably made it through it just yet. I mean, it's kind of above it, but we haven't yet had a daily close. Maybe by the time you watch this video, we will have had one. So, I guess that is is the gap to watch.
But what I think is more sort of interesting right now in in terms of trying to figure out how much Bitcoin could still go up and and sort of like where we are is more of like a, it's a time-based approach. It's a seasonality approach. and seeing that, you know, in 2018, which is kind of following a similar pattern, a low in February, a higher low in April, the lower high came in late April and early May, and then we came back down in the summer, and then volatility basically dried up until the very end of the year, and then we had a reset, and then the next cycle began. Now, in 2022, the next sort of the the major low also occurred in June. So you have two midterm years where you have a major low in June and in both cases, the market went marginally lower later in the year. 2014 was a little different. In this case, Bitcoin printed a high in June, but when it printed the high in June, it was after Bitcoin had a lower low in April. Right? So, you had a lower low in April rather than a higher low and therefore the rally ended up lasting longer. Perhaps people just got more wiped out over here and it cleared the way for a larger rally. But you'll notice that that also got rejected at around the 200-day moving average. It got a little bit above it, but mostly rejected at the 200-day. In 2018, Bitcoin got rejected at the 200-day moving average in late April and early May. And in 2022, Bitcoin got rejected by the 200-day moving average in late March. So, I guess those are the main levels to watch. The 100-day and the 200-day, those seem to be kind of major resistance levels by Bitcoin in bear markets, as well as that bear market resistance band.
It's hard to know exactly where Bitcoin will get to before it starts to turn back down and head back down, what I think will likely be back to 60K. Um, but I would say the timing on it will likely be within a couple of weeks or so, right? Like within a couple of weeks, probably by the end of the month or early May, that is where you likely will start to see that weakness creep back in. And again, just because you might enter into another window of weakness doesn't actually mean that Bitcoin has to print a lower low, right? Like it could be a higher low for all we know. Uh, in 2014 when Bitcoin had the lower low in April, it didn't actually print a lower low after the April low until October of 2014. So I I don't want people to sort of assume that a window of weakness or a window of strength always means a higher price or a lower price. It's just that in midterm years, going into early March tends to be a time when Bitcoin shows some strength. Year going into early April is where you find weakness and then going into late April, early May tends to be a little bit more strength again. And then as you get further out into like sort of May and June, especially as you get further out into May, that's where you start to see the weakness kind of rise back up.
And I don't know what the narrative is going to be, but one of the things I draw your attention to is not just Bitcoin, but looking at the total market cap, um, and and sort of seeing that as as another potential indicator that has not yet swept the high from March. So that might be interesting to watch. And then the other thing that I think is even more important to watch is stablecoin dominance. Because if you look at USDT dominance plus USDC dominance, what you'll notice there, if I can hide this one, right? So what you'll notice there is that Bitcoin, or sorry, stablecoin dominance found support at the 100-day in January and now it's sitting at it again in April. Now, I'm not saying it can't go below it. In the 2022 stablecoin dominance bull market, you can see it did go slightly below it in late March, right? Like it did go slightly below it. But the point is is when you look at sort of the a longer-term moving average like maybe, um, or sort of a weekly moving average like the the bull market support band for stablecoin dominance. This might be a little bit more interesting because in late March, early April, that is where stablecoin dominance found support at the bull market support band. And you can see that it's not that far removed from potentially finding support there again sometime over the next couple of weeks. So if we see Bitcoin inch higher, then I would look towards that because if you look at at what happened in 2022, you'll see there was a low set and then stablecoin dominance then swept that low at the bull market support band before then going higher into June. Now look, so you had a low and then you swept the low and then it led to the next expansion phase by stablecoin dominance. Well, stablecoin dominance set the low. It hasn't yet swept the low, but you can see that if it were to sweep the low, it would roughly correspond to the bull market support band, which by the way would correspond to Bitcoin likely tagging its own bull market support band or in this case, bear market resistance band.
So the way I see it is that I do not yet think that the low here can be considered a durable bottom with the information that we have right now. Okay, if it is to be considered that, I think it would only occur after other multiple tests of that level as the year goes on, as the midterm year goes on. But in terms of a window of weakness, the entire year for Bitcoin in midterm years tends to be a weak year. It's just that the lows within the midterm year, those are sort of the local windows of weakness. But the entire midterm year is a window of weakness for the crypto markets. And so I I think that, um, I think you likely will see Bitcoin get rejected from some of these levels up here and then head back down. And I I don't know. I don't know exactly where. I'm not going to pretend to know. Uh, but that would be my guess. And the timing on it would likely be sometime around like late April or early May, roughly coinciding with the next meeting of the, you know, of the Federal Reserve. So, we'll see if that happens. We'll see.
But but those are my thoughts on the market right now. Again, if you want to go into a little bit more detail about things, I would encourage you to go over to my website, BenjaminCowan.com, go over to reports, and we just released the crypto risk memo, uh, for Q2 of 2026. You can get it absolutely free. Make sure you guys check it out, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and I'll see you guys next time. Bye.