Is MSTR a Ponzi? | Lyn Alden & Andy Constan

[Music] If the company doesn't necessarily liquidate, but they have permanently impaired the preferred holders, uh, and the common equity holders, uh, that that would be a failure mode. How do you manage the risk so you don't have a very large blowup, especially among the larger ones in the market? How does a Bitcoin strategy company create income, not capital gains? They are marketing to investors as recurring earnings that deserve a multiple. That is fraudulent. There is no hope of paying the preferred dividends without new proceeds from issuance. And that's a Ponzi scheme. Full stop. And that's it. There's no way, two ways about it.

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Lynn, it is great to have you back on the show. Um, this is like your hundredth appearance on What Bitcoin Did. Um, the audience knows you, the audience loves you. Um, but we're here with Andy, who, this conversation is going to be interesting. Andy is a strategy. A Ponzi scheme. Um, you've not been on the show before though. Do you want to start by just introducing yourself? Tell everyone a bit about you and your background.

Sure. Uh, I've been uh in traditional finance for 39 years, starting my career at Salomon Brothers as uh, which was one of the big investment banks, uh, where I ran a where ultimately when I left, I ran a global equity derivatives business and have been a derivatives trader all my life. Um, then ran my own hedge fund for a number of years. Then worked at Bridgewater Associates uh as a senior analyst there and then as a, um, the chief of strategy of, um, macro strategy for Brevin Howard for a number of years. And for the last five years, I've been um servicing hedge funds uh with um my own research product uh in which um I focus on macro.

Okay. So, you've had a long career in sort of traditional finance. Um, we're obviously going to talk about strategy and treasury companies today, and we'll probably get into stablecoins as well. But before we do all that, what is your take on Bitcoin? I think it'd be good for both me and the audience to know that ahead of this conversation.

Sure. Um, I I am a strong believer that uh a portfolio requires diversification against debasement of fiat currencies. Um, I really learned that from Bridgewater and the teachings they've had regarding their um, all-weather portfolio and more broadly their just general concept of what money is. And they focused, as did I, and as I still do, in gold um, as that monetary asset that uh, protects debasement. And so I'm totally bought in on that idea as a necessary thing for everyone who is saving fiat to own or whose expenses in the future, future liabilities are in fiat, needs to own. Um, and so, so that's number one. And as it relates to Bitcoin, gosh, I've been aware of Bitcoin since the since 2015, probably maybe even a little earlier. Um, and been tracking it and watching it and finding it interesting. I think I first became aware that, you know, very closely aware in 2017 when it's peaked at around in the low low 18s and been following it ever since. And I would own some. I don't, I would own some for the reasons that I own a significant amount of gold relative to my AUM. Um, and I'd replace gold with it because I consider it to be um, digital gold. I'm still not comfortable yet, and this is my own problem, but I'm still not comfortable with its correlation to um, risky growth assets like stocks, NASDAQ in particular, and what I consider some measure of speculative excesses. Um, and so I don't own any. I tried to, I bid $84,000 for some and then passed as it came to my bid and then lowered my bid down and just haven't participated. But it's a completely valid idea.

Okay. Well, I think the audience will probably be glad to know that you've not completely dismissed Bitcoin as an idea. And the treasury companies are obviously an entire other beast on top of that. So, Lynn, why don't we get into the debate you two had on Twitter? Um, so this all came about after your comments on an investor call with Strategy. Do you want to kind of just lay the context out and explain what happened there?

Uh, sure. Um, so I've been I've been covering Strategy uh since they started their Bitcoin accumulation treasury strategy in August 2020. I've also been long since then. It's been a small part of my analysis compared to everything else I do. So I focus a lot more on Bitcoin broadly than I do on on Strategy, MicroStrategy, as well as broader equities and macro. As many people know. Um, and I, you know, over time the the thesis has changed a little bit. I mean, we kind of see the evolution of it over time. So first I was like, okay, it makes sense. There's finally a stock that will own some Bitcoin. So in certain types of uh portfolios, uh, you can access that. Then they began levering it, which I found interesting. Uh, as they kind of did, I think they're either second or their third tranche of leverage. I was like, maybe it's getting a little bit too levered uh for, I'm a pretty conservative investor. Um, but then they started uh issuing equity because they had a pretty high MNAV at the time. Uh, and I was like, okay, this is actually de-risking it to some extent. They're they're adding more on their equity side. Um, and I I increasingly saw that they're navigating this way. I also, I I think the executive team has been strong. Um, and uh, so my thesis throughout the 2022 bare market was that they would get through it. They did. Uh, and since then, we've kind of seen them shift more uh from convertibles uh toward preferred. Uh, I I continue to be long. Uh, I for people that follow my research service, I tend to trim the exposure when it hits uh, kind of euphoric levels, like particularly high MNAVs and everyone on on Twitter X is talking about it. But I've still stayed with a, you know, a position to let the let the house money ride. Um, and I think broadly treasury companies make some degree of sense because if you have uh, an appreciating asset, um, and and Pierre Rochard wrote about this back in 2014, the idea of a speculative attack and this, you know, Bitcoin was tiny back then and he kind of pointed out that as it gets bigger, uh, it's inevitable that we'll see some pools of capital find ways wherever they can to short fiat currency and be long Bitcoin. I think the thing about treasury companies is they can do it with better types of leverage than most other pools of capital have access to. Uh, which is interesting uh and gives them an edge. Uh, and I think that by the end of the cycle, we probably will see some treasury companies fail. I think there there will be low-quality ones that get over their skis. Uh, so anytime you link leverage with something, you're increasing the risk. Uh, I do think the highest quality ones are valid. Uh, and this particular discussion happened. So I went on uh, uh Strategy's earnings call as as one of their analysts. And I I actually asked the bearish question of the group, which is basically asking about stress testing uh during uh the next bare market, like what, what, you know, what kind of bare market are they kind of modeling or or thinking about as they design their capital structure? And they provided their their answers. And then also, I I, you know, I generally agree with that their new preferred, uh, which they're pretty excited about, uh, is, I think is hitting a sweet spot that the market wants. So I expected to be successful. And in one of my two threads, Andy and I went back a little bit and forth a little bit because I'm generally in the cautiously optimistic camp around these treasury strategies. Depends on the specific company in question and and the quality of the management team and everything else. Uh, whereas he, understandably, has a more critical view, which I think is healthy. I'm certainly critical in some aspects of some of these businesses. And that was kind of the genesis, I think, of this conversation.

Okay. So maybe before we get into Sailor's response to the question you asked on that investor call, Lynn, Andy, you can just lay out your kind of overarching thesis on these.

Yeah. I think what's important is that while I tweeted a few things back in the bear market uh in the late 20 uh 2022, 2023 regarding the NAV premium, I really only became pretty active in thinking about Master when, when MicroStrategy when it hit when it went above $500 in late November 202 uh 24, 23, 3, 24. And at the time, it was real. So I've spent my entire career doing arbitrage and in particular capital structure arbitrage, in which I understand what the asset is and understand how its liabilities are pricing that asset. And so MNAV, which is the market value of the Bitcoin compared to the enterprise value of the company, is an important thing for arbitrage. We're not talking about book value like for most companies. We're talking about the market value of the assets is excessive relative to the market value. The market value of the liabilities is excessive relative to the market value of the assets. So that made me want to short. Now, I don't trade personally or professionally at this stage in single names. So, but the idea was the MNAV was extreme, and that's really been my bias ever since. The questions that I continue to have, well, the basic premise is that yes, I agree with Lynn. There are some corporate advantages. There are also some disadvantages, particularly around tax, but significant advantages for issuance if you're a corporation to hold Bitcoin compared to an ETF. And an ETF should trade at, does trade at zero MNAV, well, at NAV, and so I consider MicroStrategy to be a slightly advantaged capital structure with a worse tax structure that should trade potentially at a premium to NAV and can lever. Now, you can lever your bit, uh, ETF as well. So that's been my big framework. One other important thing, though, is I think it's very clear that the idea prior to Bitcoin futures and prior to um, ETFs, that you could buy Bitcoin in a stock was a genius idea and made complete sense that it should trade at a premium because no one, you can't buy it. There were people that literally couldn't buy Bitcoin. So, the whole run-up of MicroStrategy to its $500 price peak, to me, made some sense as people didn't have other alternatives. Now that there's a liquid futures and um, ETF market, I see no value in the NAV. And so my big question that I hope can get answered is, how does a Bitcoin strategy company create income, not capital gains, but income on their assets? Because income is earnings. Capital gain is just a change in the NAV. And if it were to be the case that I could understand how Master can create earnings out of its Bitcoin holdings that are excessive, that are worth a premium, then I could see some sense regarding the idea of a of a multiple to NAV.

Okay. Well, I mean, Lynn, we should probably just throw that question straight over to you. What would you say to that?

Well, I would say that unlike an ETF, uh, MicroStrategy and and other uh, treasury companies that are operated well, tend to increase their Bitcoin per share through these, um, strategies, through through this kind of debt and equity issuance strategy. Uh, and so you're paying a premium over the Bitcoin they have. Uh, but then you're also expecting this, uh, per share, Bitcoin to increase. Uh, now, there's different ratios that analysts have come to use, basically trying to figure out how much of an MNAV to apply based on forward, you know, how much they expect Bitcoin increase per share. I've actually raised the concern that the problem with that is it's recursive because the higher their MNAV is, the more the faster they can increase their Bitcoin per share. Uh, and so that flywheel is really good on the way up, but can also just unravel very quickly when sentiment changes. It's different than say evaluating a company based on cash flows from operating a pipeline business or something. Um, and so while there's merit in that analysis, it it's a new form of analysis and it it's inherently just challenging. My general view has been that I don't know what the right MNAV is. It it certainly depends on the company. For example, MetaPlanet is smaller, uh, is in a jurisdiction where there's a really big tax arbitrage, which is different than the United States. Um, so that they're actually tax-advantaged there. And they started from a smaller base, so they they've they've had very high MNAV and have grown very quickly. It's come down in more recently. So I think that MNAV is somewhat context-dependent, partially based on how much you expect them to be able to kind of arbitrage this. Uh, generally speaking, as they get bigger, we should expect the MNAV to gradually compress because trees don't grow to the sky. Um, now they can continue growing. Just that after a while, that MNAV generally starts to compress. That's so far what we've seen in the market. Um, but I do think that an MNAV above one makes sense when you can attach this longer duration debt to Bitcoin and and therefore get through periods of cyclicality, at least if managed well and conservatively, compared to the way that hedge funds lever, the way that retail investors might lever. Um, and so I think it's worthy of a premium. Um, I would like to see eventually more cash flow generating businesses have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Um, the the kind of history of the space. So, MicroStrategy did the approach. They actually then ran a number of of conferences called Bitcoin for Corporations, trying to get other corporations to do it. We saw Tesla dabble in it. Block, uh, got in to some extent. We didn't really see a lot of other companies with existing operations decide to add Bitcoin. Instead, in this cycle, we've seen a number of uh, companies that kind of spun up to do the strategy, as well as increasingly around the margin, some existing companies do it. So I think there's a there is a bigger market for companies that just use Bitcoin as a treasury asset while also having separate cash flows. But then clearly, there's there has been demand for five years now and I think ongoing for a levered kind of pure play Bitcoin entity. And then I think the main questions to ask are, how do you, how do you value that? I I generally air toward conservative and two, how do you manage the risk so you don't have a very large blowup, especially among the larger ones in the market.

So Lynn, you started this by saying that you're not necessarily bullish on all treasury companies and you think that some will fall by the wayside. Do you think the companies that are essentially zombie companies that are doing a Bitcoin treasury play are going to be unsustainable going forward? And what we need is real companies with real business models adopting Bitcoin?

So there there are somewhat different types of zombie companies. In some ways, the perfect candidate to do this is one that's like a value stock that's cash flow positive but doesn't really have any growth prospects uh to add Bitcoin. That's really interesting. And we haven't really seen a lot of that. Truly zombie companies that have like no cash flows. That's a much harder sell. Generally speaking, so far we've seen that the market certainly does not like uh unprofitable companies, companies that are losing money to adopt a strategy because they view that as a distraction and a risk versus their their kind of Bitcoin approach. So I certainly think it makes sense for companies to at least have your profitability like neutral, and I think there is a market for at for ones with cash flows. They don't have to necessarily have growing cash flows. Um, and really at that point, Bitcoin competes with uh other uses of capital like buying back shares, paying dividends, paying down debt. They can employ that as one of their potential strategies for what to do with with their excess earnings over what they require for reinvestment.

Yeah, that makes sense. Okay, Andy, sorry I interrupted that. Did Did Lynn's answer clear anything up for you?

Um, no, no, not at all. Um, unfortunately, the question I asked was, why have, besides the appreciation, which Lynn, anybody, corporate levered, unlevered, anybody who wants to speculate on an appreciation of a thing can part with their cash and buy that thing. But assets throw off income, particularly corporate assets. Every company decides how to spend its cash. And Michael Sailor, you know, I guess all these companies would have been better off using their cash to buy Bitcoin. Well, some bought their shares, and that was a pretty good return on investment for Microsoft, for instance, who Michael tried to convince to do a Bitcoin treasury. I don't get why someone would choose to use their cash to buy an asset given all the assets they have in Bitcoin. So that's one. And then secondly, if they were to use it as an asset, besides its appreciation, I've heard no good reason for owning it. And one other point that I want to come back on, Lynn mentioned the flywheel of, hey, part of the reason why you have a na a NAV premium is because you can continue to harvest more Bitcoin by selling more assets when you're doing ATM stock sales. Listen, I think that's genius. And absolutely, Michael, you should do exactly what Michael Sailor is doing because it's genius. If you can buy $2 of Bitcoin for $1, more relevantly, buy $1 of Bitcoin by selling $2 of value in your shares, you should do that all day long. And Michael Sailor is doing it all day long. He's harvesting the MNAV. The problem is the investors are the suckers in that case. And when I use that word, people will say, well, I own Master since 10 or 20 or 30 or what 60 or whatever, and it's 400 now. I win. No, you haven't performed for months since the peak. That whole MNAV expansion is by and large over. So I don't see anything more than new holders of the common stock generating returns for the old holders of the common stock, which is a Ponzi scheme.

Is that not the reason that he's brought in these preferreds though to try and help the common stock?

Right. And I think it's interesting the preferred um and um the preferreds are legitimate investments. I happen to think there's some hair on them in some ways. In particular, the STRC in terms of its ongoing use of which I think everyone's very excited about. But the preferreds are essentially, um, the ones that are not convertible are essentially leverage and the company's not particularly leveraged. I don't actually have any problem with them levering up their Bitcoin, but it doesn't mean that there should be an MNAV. It just means they're going to the capital that they're going to use dollars over here, STRC dollars, and buy Bitcoin over here. Their assets and liabilities are going to be identical. And if they, if the market goes up, they win. If the market goes down, they lose. But you can do that with IBIT. One last point, Lynn mentioned term leverage. There's a deep market for um, long-term ETF calls. Now go and buy a 20% an 80% in the money call for two years and you get all the leverage that Master has without paying the MNAV premium. Lynn, I want to get on to or deeper into if Strategy is a Ponzi scheme, but before we do that, do you have anything to respond to there?

Sure. I mean, there's a number of points there. One of the earliest ones is was why Bitcoin? Why buy Bitcoin with cash? Uh, historically the answer is because it's the best performing thing you could buy with your cash pretty much. Uh, and then the thesis going forward is that it's gonna continue to be uh, one, either the best or one of the best things you can do with your cash, especially uh, that it's not a security. So there's with um, US stocks, there's kind of a limit on how much securities you can have uh, in your asset mix. It doesn't apply to uh, Bitcoin, which is a digital commodity. Um, and so the combination of ex high expected returns based on those who generally speaking, those at at Strategy and those who invest in Strategy are bullish on Bitcoin. So I certainly wouldn't recommend a Bitcoin treasury strategy holding for those who just aren't particularly high conviction long-term bulls in the assets.

Do you think there's there's a valid reason to have high expected returns on Bitcoin, um, based on historical returns?

Not just on historical returns. Uh, I I mean, I employ a number of analysis methods to determine what I expect Bitcoin to do. I still think that the total addressable market of what Bitcoin can address is much larger than the current size. So from in my expectation over the next five, 10 years, I do expect Bitcoin to to still have high returns. Not the returns that when you go from a billion dollar asset to a trillion dollar asset. Um, but I I certainly think it can it can 5x and 10x from here and we'll see how the numbers shake out in the years ahead. Um, so I I and it's also the the risk situation is different than before. So, uh, when Bitcoin was tiny, it didn't even have the liquidity for like a corporation to buy it. It didn't have the regulatory clarity uh, in many cases either. And so now that the the uh, tax treatment of it has improved, regulatory clarity has improved, and it's a big and liquid enough asset, the expected forward returns are not as explosively high by most analysis methods than they used to be, but the the probability of of uh, beating your

The thing, the question I have really isn't whether you're a bullish bullish Bitcoin. I like Bitcoin. I I can understand the bull case. I like gold. I that's why I own it. Um, the question is, um, you could say that about any, um, a number of things that have done very, very well in the past and have valid um, forward-looking returns. The question is, why should corporations be doing that for their shareholders under what their the corporation has? By the way, you're great at it. Michael Sailor's great at it. Lots of other people are great at it. But what is the competitive advantage for a comp, an operating company? Not an ETF, not a treasury company, but an operating company. Where's their competitive edge that allows them to that that their shareholders would say, "Yeah, I get why you are buying Bitcoin versus anybody else or for that matter, I can do it on my own. So why are you doing it for me?" Like, where's the edge?

I think the main thing is that Bitcoin is the first asset that can actually compete with equities long-term in returns. And so prior to this, when corporations had excess capital, they generally decapitalized themselves. They would give it back to shareholders. Uh, they would they would pay it in dividends. They would pay it in in buybacks. They would sometimes make acquisitions for the sake of acquisitions because they don't know what else to do with the money. That's often a criticism that especially some tech companies tend to do. Um, and uh, you know, one of the downsides is that that makes the company more vulnerable in the future if if they don't have something good to say with. Kind of like how households want to save for unplanned things in the future. Generally speaking, corporations want to save for unplanned things in the future. Uh, and there's just not been a great vehicle for that. Even gold, because gold over the long arc of time underperforms high-quality equities. Uh, it's hard to justify holding a lot of it on your balance sheet longer term if you're a company that's trying to to be in the, you know, the top third of the S&P 500 returns or something like that. But I think you're saying the same thing. I think you're saying that um, you think Bitcoin is going up. I'm saying a different thing, which is why should I trust a company that manufactures, creates software, does whatever it does as a business to have the expertise that you do?

Well, I think in many cases you shouldn't. And when companies adopt the strategy, many of them don't get very high MNAVs because the market says, well, who are you? Right? So they look at Strategy and they say, well, these these people have been doing it for years now. They look at say MetaPlanet and they know the people running that. I mean, I know the people running that and they think that, okay, I'll trust those people to manage this well. So it's a certainly a company by company basis there, and there's a, and some of these companies have hired uh, Bitcoin analysts, Bitcoin uh, experts in various capacities to help them do the strategy. And then the market assesses, do they think they have the right people on board to help that company the strategy? But basically the answer is, one, in the near term, there's an arbitrage, the market likes it. Um, but two, longer term, as Bitcoin kind of grows and becomes less volatile but still has the absolute scarcity aspect to it, which is desirable, uh, it's one of the few assets that I think there's a reasonable case it can be made that it is uh, able to keep up with equities over a pretty long span of time, if not outperform equities. And therefore, if a company doesn't want to fully decapitalize itself, it doesn't want to say, okay, we're going to take all of our excess capital above what we need for working capital and give it back to shareholders. We want to plan, you know, for a pandemic lockdown or or uh, a big new competitor comes to our market, we need to make major uh, capex to change our or pivot our business. They want to have something that that they can hold for five, 10 years, um, as part of their asset mix. And I think Bitcoin Bitcoin brings that in a way that other assets haven't.

I I I hear all that and I guess I just don't understand why, um, a why a shareholder would want a corporation to do that for them when they can do it for themselves.

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Well, the funny thing about this, Andy, is I think the argument you're putting forward is a very Bitcoiner argument. So like treasury companies are definitely not greatly received by everyone in Bitcoin. There's a lot of people that do say we should just buy and hold our own in Bitcoin because that's the point of this thing. Um, like you two are definitely on the right curve of the bell curve and I'm on the left. But like if I, if you had to say why would you trust them and what's the benefit that you get from the treasury companies? I think obviously two different questions and why would you trust them, I think is very valid. But what their, what their sort of the reason they can potentially outperform you just buying Bitcoin, I assume, is just the access to capital markets. Is that right, Lynn?

Uh, partially it's the access to capital markets. Yeah. That they that they can do certain types of leverage that others can't, especially those that don't want to make one-year or or, you know, 18-month bets on the price, but just want to say, okay, this company plans on doing this for the foreseeable future. Uh, and they want to maintain conservative leverage ratios in debt that's not really callable during a bare market, as long as they don't get, you know, liquidated in some capacity. They they're unable to make, uh, coupon payments or something. Uh, and so I'm going to let them do it, is is how many pools of capital do. Now, I I'm with you that I, you know, I don't think anyone should say, "Okay, sell your Bitcoin and go buy a Bitcoin treasury company." Uh, I think that there's one, there's larger pools of capital that just, for a variety of reasons, can't own Bitcoin. Sometimes they can't even own the Bitcoin ETFs. Uh, and so they can go out and buy companies or either their equity or their bonds that give them some degree of Bitcoin price exposure if say, a fund manager happens to be bullish on on Bitcoin. Uh, there there's a now a capacity to do that. And then two, uh, if you're the treasurer, if you're that company themselves, and you know, and you're not, you know, you do any other business is not Bitcoin, could be software, could be, you know, gasoline pipeline business, whatever the case may be. Uh, and you say, well, you know, we're decapitalizing ourselves. We're giving back cash to shareholders, which makes sense. But if you want to have something that we want to hold, say 20% of our uh, retained earnings in something longer term for unexpected events or to to grow over time, that's certainly one of the things that they can do. In MicroStrategy's case, and they've actually talked about this, when they were a um, you know, a software company, they had, you know, flattish income. They were no longer a growth company. It was a very competitive market. A lot of their competitors had gone out of business. They were up against, you know, really, really big uh, conglomerates at that point. And they generally found that nothing they did was enticing to the market. So, buying back shares didn't excite the market. Holding a lot of cash didn't excite the market. And they've even talked about how they would eventually start losing executives that go on to work at things where, um, that that there's bigger and more scale. Uh, and so by becoming a larger company, uh, in partially through their treasury strategy, they were they were able to keep and retain really good executives. So sometimes decapitalizing yourself is the answer, um, because it's kind of a decision that the investor will make better use of that cash than the company will. And that's certainly better than a company holding it and then misusing the cash. Um, uh, but there's also an argument to be made for putting some of it into something that can appreciate long-term and give the company survivability through, um, problematic events, as well as, uh, become larger over time, which then potentially down the road could result in in larger acquisitions than they could do without having done the strategy. And then the com, and then investors might say, well, I like the underlying business, and I like the fact I'm bullish on Bitcoin. I like the fact that they're holding Bitcoin. I'm not going to say let them manage Bitcoin for me. I'm also going to hold Bitcoin. But if I'm looking at the universe of stocks I can own, that's that's an interesting strategy because they can employ in some cases a little bit of leverage or not. They have cash flows or not. And they're doing something with their Bitcoin that can allow that company to, you know, thrive through multiple cycles.

Yeah. Yeah, I guess I'm wondering, um, so before Bitcoin existed, um, I think it is pretty interesting that over the last decade, set of decades, corporations have accumulated lots of, um, cash that one could call savings, like rainy day savings versus just regular operating cash that they need to manage to pursue their business, particularly the tech companies who've generated such cash flow. But in no case have any of these companies thought of their cash as an as an appreciating asset. And they've had lots of alternative assets to buy. I just don't, I think they think, and maybe I'm completely wrong, and this is this world is now going to change. I think they think that that cash is literally a rainy day asset and shouldn't take risk because God forbid Bitcoin fall, they take risk, they buy Bitcoin, and Bitcoin falls at the same time their business weakens, that's a pretty disastrous outcome for them. So I think they think about cash in a very different way than I think you're saying, which is they don't, they're not looking, they consider it a rainy day asset. They're not considering it an earning asset, and so they keep some. Now, most companies, most operating companies don't keep a lot of cash because they don't have a lot of cash. So I guess my question is, so there, let's break it down also. Firstly, there's the, is a treasury Bitcoin treasury company that is 98% Bitcoin treasury an ETF that deserves a NAV? And secondly, is there demand for Bitcoin for companies that have nothing to do with this, that this type of activity, that are just looking at Bitcoin as a asset? And I just want to make sure we're talking about the same thing. So the first, the second thing, these companies don't invest their cash at risk. I'm not sure why they would. And more relevantly, and I've said this before, they aren't good at it. They aren't good at betting on Bitcoin. Should they hire people when you yourself as a shareholder can just buy it the yourselves? Only if it's true that you really can't as an individual buy Bitcoin, would you ever give company ABC money to buy Bitcoin on your behalf, even if they're able to leverage it? Now, on the other side, you've got this treasury company that trades at a premium to NAV. What should that NAV be? Should it be 2.5x, where Michael Sailor is happy to sell as much as he wants? Um, or closer to one, or like many closed-end equity funds trades at a discount to NAV? I'm not sure, but I think two is high and one is probably about fair.

So, a couple of different questions there. I I generally think that it depends on the company, right? But for a mature one, uh, that that the scale, something like Strategy, I generally prefer the sub to MNAV. Uh, I I think I think above one is still the right answer for these companies because I think I I guess my thesis is we're probably earlier than you think in terms of how much capital can access Bitcoin uh comfortably, versus, you know, uh, what these companies are making available. Uh, and so I still think that there's a runway ahead. You know, one of the one of the uh, tweets I did a while ago was I pointed out that like even if Strategy's MNAV compressed all the way to one, uh, it still would have like been a major outperformance over the past five years for those that owned it because it basically they accumulated so much Bitcoin per share that even after the MNAV compresses, they've done well.

Here we are. What would you say going forward? And what I'm hearing is very bullish outlook for, um, uh, Bitcoin, which I totally get, and some conservatism in terms of whether an an MNAV is sustainable long-term for the biggest investors, sorry, for the biggest companies like Master, um, and opportunistic when you are going to sell MNAV at high and assuming you're then going to buy the Bitcoin and buy and then do that swap, um, back into Master when the MNAV is low. Those, that's a totally sensible strategy. I I could completely agree on all those ideas. So I think MicroStrategy is aware that there are different type investors and that's why they're offering so many different things because there are those that want exposure with less risk. There are those who do want to make all these bets, and and they they can benefit from the fact that MicroStrategy is very liquid and volatile. So it's a, it's a really good kind of trading vehicle, uh, for those. My answer to that is I would generally recommend caution for those buying in at high MNAVs. Now, what a high MNAV is will depend on the company and the market. So for example, a high MNAV for MetaPlanet is a little bit different than a high MNAV for Strategy. Like I tweeted out back when MN when MetaPlanet had like a six MNAV, I was like, I like the company, like people running it. Wouldn't personally buy it at like six MNAV. It it's since compressed. It might, you know, we could be have this conversation a year from now, maybe it's maybe it's high again. I don't know. Um, so for risk management purposes, I would generally recommend people avoid high MNAVs. I I wouldn't necessarily claim to know what band of MNAV makes sense with the caveat that generally speaking, the bigger and mature and more mature that market is, you generally should expect gradual reduction in in MNAV. I still think we're at the phase of the market where it's it's one is not the right answer either. Uh, I think something in the 1.5 range makes sense. It could be between 1.2 and 1.8. I don't I don't really have a super specific view because I think there's a lot of um, unknowns still ahead of us. I generally view uh, above two is where I'm I'm increasingly disinterested, at least in US-based uh, treasury companies. I think that's a totally reasonable thing. And for one, I don't even look at these other Bitcoin treasury companies at all. Though I'm starting to pay attention to the the Ether one, Ethereum one, Ether, I don't even know the name of these things. Um, but, as it relates to Master, I don't know if it's 1.2. I don't know if it's 1.5. At 1.2, I think there's going to be an interesting dynamic on whether people think it'll go to one or below. So, you know, all that stuff is really, really hard. I guess the what I still don't quite get, and this is the thing that I'm really struggling with, what's the endgame as it relates to making money on your asset? Is there a business case in which you can generate profits, not appreciation profits, by having a large stake in Bitcoin that non-corporations can't do?

Partially, uh, so one of the methods, and it's not really at scale yet, and I don't think it will be in the next five years, but it is being done is, for example, uh, you can use Bitcoin on the Lightning Network while retaining custody of it to facilitate payments. Basically, you provide liquidity. There's there's a whole technical thing we can go into, but how it works, but for example, one of the companies that's doing it is Block Inc. They have some Bitcoin and they they also are active in the lightning development space and they talked about this at the at the Vegas, uh, Bitcoin conference. They're generating pretty high ROI in Bitcoin terms with Bitcoin. Now, the scale is not there yet because lightning as as a payment network is still small in the macro sense. It's, you know, it does billions in volumes, but it's still small in the macro sense. And specifically, the percentages you get from moving around those billions are, you know, small. Um, but if we talk about a future where Bitcoin is quite big, and and lightning and and similar things are quite big, that is a potential future income source. Um, you know, right now, it's generally not, there's not really demand for for, you know, borrowing Bitcoin in many cases other than through financial arbitrage. Should should Bitcoin become bigger, more more, you know, used as money, uh, there could be lending aspects of it that get interesting. But right now, the firmly it's more about the the appreciation, the the idea that that fiat is going to keep debasing, Bitcoin's going to go up, and that's that's how the, you know, the companies, which is why which is why I like Bitcoin. But I still don't can't get comfortable able buying a corporation that's supposed to earn money, um, with my money. I'd rather buy the physical Bitcoin or an ETF.

Yeah, makes sense. I I think the, um, the yield on Lightning is going to be an interesting one because like you say, Lynn, Block came out and I think they said they were generating about 9%. They're kind of in a silo where they can set the fees themselves, which which make it hard to know what the exact figure will be because I think River have also published a report which said they get something like one and a half percent, and they run a very large lightning node. So who knows what the actual figure will be, and I do think we're going to

See some Bitcoin treasury companies come out and try and do that as a way of generating profit. Um, but one thing I do want to go back to, Andy, because we started this conversation with you claimed that strategy was a Ponzi scheme. Um, like that kind of came from Lynn's question, which we've not actually got into, which was how does strategy perform in a bare market? And in the investor call, Lynn Michael said that if it dropped 80%, he thinks they're fine. 90%, they may have to pause some dividends. Um, Andy, can you just lay out what you mean precisely when it comes to it being a Ponzi scheme?

Yeah, it's a very simple thing, which is a Ponzi scheme is a situation where past investors are paid money, paid return from proceeds of new investors' money. And that's all it really is. And so what I'm referring to isn't the NAV. The NAV isn't a Ponzi scheme. A ETF isn't a Ponzi scheme. You get, you take the money from investors, you go buy the asset. All good. No Ponzi. What is a Ponzi? Is when you have interest that you're paying and have no income to cover that interest. Literally no income. That's why I also asked, when's the income coming from? That's not appreciation. So there is no hope. Again, this is why I said, what's the future income of the treasury company? There is no hope of paying the preferred dividends without new proceeds from issuance. And that's a Ponzi scheme, full stop. That's it. There's no way, two ways about it.

So, Lynn, I'm curious on your take on this because, um, there's a, Andy, just for your context, there's a great Bitcoin analyst called Checkmate, James Czech. Um, he's a good friend of mine. And I think he does really good analysis on this, and he calls these treasury companies kind of Ponzi adjacent. Um, I, I'd like to know your take on it.

That's exactly what I'm saying. There's the ETF, and then there's the no income paying out interest with no hope of future income. Yes, I think there's two levers of this. On on that, that first lever, uh, it is true that they're paying out existing, you know, coupons and dividends with the expectation and and ongoing issuance of new capital. That part is true. Uh, and that if you define a Ponzi scheme is just that, uh, that's correct. Now, for example, if you look at the SEC's website for like red flags of a Ponzi scheme, and I, and the reason I, I was familiar with this resource is because when I, years ago, I wrote an article for why Bitcoin is not a Ponzi scheme, which is different than a Bitcoin treasury company. That it isn't. And and people, but yeah, people would say it is. So, I, I kind of did research and I point out, you know, for example, the, the Ponzi scheme red flags according to the SEC are high returns with little or no risk, uh, overly consistent returns, unregistered investments, unlicensed sellers, secretive complex strategies, issues with paperwork, difficulty receiving payments. And that's so generally speaking, there's when you think of the word Ponzi scheme, usually it comes with some degree of obfuscation, secrecy, fraudulent, uh, assumptions with it. Uh, and that's the part I would say, of course, there's not any of that here. It's a.

So I disagree with that. I think you look at Strategy's most recent marketing document where they talk about their PE and where they talk about their earnings relative to everyone else. That is deceptive, completely 100% fraudulent. Just because it has recently become GAAP to consider earnings as appreciation of Bitcoin treasury assets as earnings doesn't mean when you say, "Hey, I am the biggest earner in the, whatever, the top, whatever earner in the S&P 500," that that is not a fraudulent statement. Because if the market falls, they will be the biggest loser in that quarter in history. And they are marketing it as recurring, as this one-off mark-to-market. They are marketing to investors as recurring earnings that deserve a multiple. That is fraudulent.

Well, I would say, I wouldn't, I'm not sure I would call it fraudulent, but I don't agree with the charts that show their PE comparison either. It's their company. How can you, how can you not say to them, "Hey, you're committing fraud here by marketing your shares as having a recurring earnings?"

Well, I think recurring, it depends on what time frame you're looking at. They expect, probably comparing it to the biggest companies on Earth that have decades of recurring earnings, and which is why I agree the comparison is not valid. Uh, I wouldn't go far and say fraudulent. It's not valid.

How can they do it?

Well, so I'm trying to. So basically, if when I look at say, a highly cyclical company, a company that has periods of earnings and periods of losses, any investor would generally assign a lower PE multiple to a company like that for for a correct reason. It, it's, you, if there's a company like a Mag 7 tech stock, or even a really big mega-cap like Costco, if you look at the PE of what people put on Costco, I think it's excessive, but clearly there's there's there's an argument that investors use when when, uh, you know, there's a premium that that investors pay for smooth growing earnings, uh, they pay a much higher multiple for that correctly. Uh, and so when someone makes the argument that, you know, on based on current GAAP earnings, MicroStrategy has a PE of like five or something, and then they say, "Well, our competitors have 20, we would also have 20." I, I generally would say right along with you that I don't view that as an accurate comparison because you're comparing a highly cyclical expectation of of GAAP earnings and losses, uh, even if Bitcoin does continue to appreciate, but at a, at a bumpy pace, versus a very smooth expectation. Um, now fraudulent, I mean, they, it is GAAP earnings. It is, they're, they're following a certain accounting standard. So, I, I, I personally wouldn't use that term. Um, but I definitely would say that I wouldn't, that's not how certainly not how I would evaluate the company. I would instead look at other metrics that I use to evaluate the company.

Let me ask you a question on that then. Why is MicroStrategy doing that? Why is the company putting out slides like this? Why are they doing it?

Well, one thing to keep in mind that was one slide out of over a hundred slides. But why are they doing it? I, you'd have to ask them. I mean, they are, any company is trying to put their best foot forward and say, you know, this is why you should own our company. Uh, you know, all sorts of different companies do it. That's their approach. That's, that's not the slide I agree with. I think they had many good slides in their deck. Uh, that's, you know, maybe one of a couple slides I, you know, I wouldn't make, certainly wouldn't make the argument for.

Uh, okay, fair. I think it's, I think it will. So let me just say say this. There are no Ponzi schemes that fail. Sorry, that don't fail. Ponzi schemes fail, and that's when they become known as Ponzi schemes. Bernie Madoff was never a Ponzi scheme until he failed. And so it's possible that Bitcoin rallies forever. It's possible that there's never a down case where and they continue to create recurring earnings. And in that case, MicroStrategy will never be declared a Ponzi scheme.

Well, there certainly will be down periods in Bitcoin. I think even Bitcoin bulls, any rational one would say. My point is that my point is that as long as the, and this is why the adjacent part is the key bit, Bitcoin will, uh, Master will never be a Ponzi scheme as long as the ETF continues to appreciate. The Bitcoin underlying asset continues to appreciate. Whether it's bouncy or not is sort of irrelevant. It'll be a Ponzi scheme when they no longer have access to financial markets to compensate their, um, preferred shareholders, their coupon shareholders, and they can, they must sell Bitcoin to do that. That will take the MNAV to negative. That'll sh, that'll create a Ponzi-like environment when they can't fund, they can't get that next sucker to buy the preferred because there's no income. Or it will never be a Ponzi scheme if they find a way to actually turn this asset into an earning asset, which is why I keep coming back to that question. So I think it's very clear that in no Ponzi scheme history has ever anyone ever said, "See, it's a Ponzi scheme." They suspect it might be a Ponzi scheme, but in the backward-looking history, first there, uh, it has to fail, and then let me tell you something, fraud will be the least of the of the sailor's problems. That slide will live in infamy, but it may never happen.

Andy, help me understand. Cuz let's say in the absolute worst-case scenario, um, Bitcoin drops 90%. Michael has to pause dividends on the preferreds, like what makes it a Ponzi scheme at that point? What makes it a Ponzi scheme? If the equity goes to zero, that would be one, by the way. But assuming that all he has to do is pause dividends, he doesn't have to sell any Bitcoin, then the likelihood of the equity going to zero is almost zero. Is that not right?

Well, I mean, unless he has fixed, so you can't bankrupt unless you have a fixed obligation. He does have some converts, but they're mostly small. That's not the downside case I'm worrying about, to be honest. I, I've never been worried about the downside case. I've been worried about he no longer has access to issuance at what he deems satisfactory levels of in issuance and thus he can't pay the preferred shareholders. They experience a significant drawdown. The common shareholders experience a significant drawdown that takes MNAV below zero, below one. Remember, they always have the Bitcoin. That's why the term adjacent, which I agree completely, is the essential one. There's the ETF, which is not a Ponzi scheme. It, there is the preferred issuance, which is creating dividend income necessary that requires further issuance. That's the Ponzi scheme bit. That's it. Only that bit. And when that can't work, when that issuance to pay dividends can't work, what the consequence to the various investor classes, that's hard to tell. But my basic assumption would be when they cannot finance any longer, they will either have to sell Bitcoin to to pay to pay their dividends, or their MNAV will drop below one and their preferred shareholders will get washed out. Meaning capital losses, not they, they can hold them for as long as they want. But let me tell you something, a preferred that's never going to pay its dividend ever again trades very cheap, like practically zero.

At the start of this um call, Andy, you were saying you used to work in capital structure arbitrage. Is that where if you saw these dividends get paused, then someone like you would step in and short the common stock?

Oh, if dividends get paused, the first thing that happens is the common stock goes down because there's an expectation that the common stock will be used to fund the dividends or much more importantly, preferred are a small class of investors, much more importantly to fund debt payments. But yes, the first thing one does when a preferred dividend gets cut is short the stock.

Okay, Lynn, sorry I cut you off there. I was going to hop into to largely agree with Andy with some caveats. Uh, and so for example, that's why on the earnings call I didn't just ask about Bitcoin falling. I specifically brought up the topic of capital access because you, I mean, you could have a stagnant sideways market. You know, Bitcoin could fall 50% and just go sideways for three years, and then MNAV just compresses, and then it's like, well, you know, what happens there, and you start to run into challenges. Um, now, in the, in the prior um, cycle, they primarily relied on converts, uh, which gave them the advantage that on a quarterly basis, they had very little obligation because they were either zero or near zero coupon. And the, the view was, as long as Bitcoin doesn't go like five years in a bare market, they're probably not going to have an issue converting or or um, uh, refinancing these. Uh, now preferred are interesting because, uh, it's more of a bend and not break model, which is they have higher quarterly obligations, uh, but those obligations are less immediately catastrophic should they fail to meet those obligations. Uh, and, um, now what that opens up to, and this is where I agree with Andy, the, the, the failure mechanism is then pretty known, which is that if, if MNAV compresses, regardless of what Bitcoin price action is doing, if it just compresses, and obviously the deeper the bare market in Bitcoin, the worse this whole thing gets compared to your, your dollar denominated liabilities, um, you start shutting off dividends. Uh, it's, there's one preferred where you don't even get back dividends. Uh, their junior ones, the senior ones where you do get paid back dividends, it's still based on the assumption that eventually Bitcoin and MNAV will both recover and the company will be able to issue more equity to to back fund those dividends. The longer that doesn't happen, equity investors should start pricing in a negative MNAV or below one MNAV, I should say, uh, because they say, well, okay, here's how much Bitcoin they have, here much here's how much debt they have, but then also they have this accumulating liability for preferred once any of this comes back online, if it does, um, and so they, they can start pricing that, and if you dig yourself in deep enough of a hole, the probability that they're going to recover diminishes, um, and people can bet on the probabilities and they will be, you know, so, but the point is, I would consider a failure mode to be that if the company doesn't necessarily liquidate, but they have permanently impaired the preferred holders, um, and the common equity holders, uh, that that would be a failure mode.

That 100% agree with every word Lynn just said. It, it can happen with, it can happen with Bitcoin at any price. Yeah. And that's, and, and so that's as an analyst, that's something I, I focus on, and that's why I brought it up on the earnings call. You, people are, you know, generally we're in a bull market, but I like, let's, let's ask the bare market question. Um, and I agree with you. I think that the main thesis here, the main question, and this is why I'm also pretty conservative on MNAVs and I'm willing to pay for treasury companies given given any individual context is they have a mechanism to effectively short fiat and get more Bitcoin. Uh, the, the, the fair MNAV is debatable. There's market participants actively debating on what that answer is. Um, and the higher the market assigns it, the more Bitcoin yield these companies can get. Now, I expect that over the long arc of time, MNAVs will compress close to one, um, when these become, and if you become a trillion-dollar company, you know, it just, it compresses very significantly. I think over the long arc of time, um, in a cyclical sense, so in a bull market, it's high, in a bare market, it's, I mean, MicroStrategy's already gone down to a very low MNAV in the prior, uh, bare market. So, I think we can, we can see one and then also see high again, but I think the, the cycles will will compress closer to one. Then the question is, is that, is that two years from now? Is that five years from now? Is that 10 years from now? Is that 15 or 20 years from now? And how much Bitcoin yield will they have accumulated by that time? And what will the capital structure look like when that starts to occur in a more persistent sense? Not again, not in like a one-year bare market or two-year bare market scenario that they might be prepared for, but just longer term when when the MNAV is kind of permanently drained. Now, a lot of people thought that when the ETFs came out, that would permanently drain their MNAV, and this whole discussion around euphoria and and high MNAVs occurred after that, ironically. So, uh, the market has shown a so far an inability to determine when when their MNAV is going to kind of persistently go away. Um, and, and so we'll see, and that's the answer is I don't know, but that's why I prefer to be conservative with my where I'm I'm willing to enter with an MNAV willing where I'm willing to trim my existing holdings, uh, if, if I perceive the MNAV is getting too high.

Okay, that makes sense. So maybe just to close out on this section, because I do want to talk to you about stablecoins as well, because I think you've got an interesting take on those, Andy. Um, but before we close out the treasury companies and strategy in particular, if you had to put kind of a percentage chance on them failing in the next decade, where would you put that? Because I mean, personally for me, it would seem like low single figures. Bitcoin, uh, sorry, MicroStrategy failing in the way Lynn described, a wash down, a significant markdown in the preferred shares and, um, a, MNAV below one in the next 10 years. I think it's 50%. Wow. Lynn, where would you put that?

I think in the next 10 years, there's a pretty high chance we enter that state in a, in a bare market. Uh, then the question is, do we get out of that state? Uh, I, I expect that we would. So I think it's a, in the next 10 years, I would assign as certainly a sub-50% chance that we p, that that's the ended discussion of where MicroStrategy ends up. Uh, but much like, much like they were in in the '22 bare market, I, I think there's a chance that we'll be, we'll find them somewhat impaired at some point in 10 years. I could be wrong. I think there's a decent chance. Uh, the idea that it happens permanently, I would assign probably less than a quarter.

Yeah, I don't know about permanently. 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guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy, guy

happens once. But then the broker then says, "Okay, well, there's clearly a demand for what I'm doing. I will go and get more stable coins." Okay, so they they pass on the demand to somebody else. They have to do first. They so so initial buyer comes with an Egyptian pound, gives it to gets a stable coin from a seller of a stable coin who now has Egyptian pounds. Yes.

So far, I haven't seen any net demand for US dollars. All I've seen that the the fact that it was a stable coin is irrelevant. It could have been, uh, chicken. Let's start with paper dollars and then move to stable coins. So, right now, physical dollars get into Egypt in some way. People literally bring them on a plane in suitcases. Yeah.

Now, if there was no demand for dollars in Egypt, nobody would bother doing that. But there is demand for for dollars in Egypt, and there's a certain premium even people are willing to pay to get dollars because it's not trivial to do so. And so the someone comes in with a duffel bag of $10,000, let's say, whatever the legal limit is or sometimes illegal, you know, whatever. They come in with a duffel bag. They then uh make a market of of being a being say, "I will I will give you, you know, if you want dollars and the official exchange rate is, let's say, 50, I'll give them to you for 52." Yep.

Uh should you should you want uh to give your dollars back because maybe maybe an Egyptian is is holding dollars for a six-month period to save up for a car, right? Maybe they now they finally want to buy the car. They actually want to sell their dollars back to the market. The same broker or or a friend of the broker might say, "Okay, I'll buy them from you for $48 48 Egyptian pounds." So the there's a market for that person making a spread.

Now if they if if let's say currently there's a billion dollar stock of physical US currency in Egypt that's an arbitrary number. Uh now if if next year because of some policy or whatever that there's now 1.2 billion in demand uh and there's a shortage, they start bidding up that gray market premium because it's harder to find people to say yes, I I will make this trade. So then someone will fly another duffel bag over there. They'll they'll find a way to get dollars in the US or elsewhere, right? Fly it into Egypt. Uh and and and therefore more dollars are in there. There's scarce flying it back where that comes from where that comes from in in in from the Treasury from the Treasury and and issued through the banking system. And so okay so the dollars in this case their state their um their um financial system dollars. We can we can keep let's keep using the currency. So a physical bag of dollars goes out. Where did that dollar come from? Those dollars come from those dollars came from the Treasury and the US banking system. Right. And so they were in they were they were supporting existing banking. Yes. Right. Yeah.

And so so if you do that enough, you start to get a shortage in the US of physical currency. And there is a degree of fungibility between bank reserves and currency. A bank can do it. A person can't. But if enough people go to the bank and say, "I want currency," and the bank keeps finding themselves not enough currency. Then they go to their Fed and say, "We need to make this this trade." Um, so then there's more demand for for currency. It gets out there and then some of it finds its way into duffel bags around the world. And that's exactly the way.

So what I think is happening with physical dollars in Egypt, physical bills is you're going to see the duffel bags going in the other direction. And what you're going to see coming in this direction is stable coins. I so partially. But here I think the additional part of that is let's say currently there's a billion dollar stock of of dollars in Egypt. Um and if you say, "Okay, we made the process way easier because it's digital." I think there are some there are nonzero number of Egyptians that say, "I didn't bother to get dollars before, even though I would have liked them. I just didn't bother. Now I will." And so now there's 1. Let's say there's 1.5 billion in uh active demand for dollars in Egypt and uh and that, you know, stable coins can fill that gap because that we agree. And I think where it happens is it and that whole process just is a current is a currency um market event. Yeah, it's a currency market.

Now, but the final thing is where it can actually somewhat affect the supply is the Fed and to some extent the the Tre, you know, the Congress and the Treasury when they're determining policies either fiscal, monetary policies that either expand or contract the money supply, they're partially looking at inflation when they do this, at least especially the Fed. Um, if the around the margins, the stronger the dollar is, the more leeway they have to enact policies that are growth, growth of credit, either base money or broad money or both. Um, and uh so to the extent around the margins that the dollar is strong, it can actually increase the number of dollars that are out there because the entities that are capable of doing that are more likely to allow that to happen. Uh there might be there might be less demand for among voters for the Congress to reduce fiscal deficits if if the dollar is strong enough that there might be less, you know, the Fed is more conducive to doing things that either QE or uh lower rates to encourage banks to lend more, whatever the case may be, right? So that so I agree so that so you're I think I'm reaching the point where I see the foreign demand creating currency pressures, debanking pressures, and possibly that le which leading to easier monetary policy and thus more dollars. Yes. Yes. I see. Yeah, that makes sense to me. Yeah.

And then the question is what's what's the magnitude? That's the question, right? And the magnitude to me depends on back to the beginning, which is you've got 1.2 and two trillion of bills. I mean, currency and circulation. I think that's a real TAM. I think we're going to see a lot of that turn into stable coins. You've got the ease demand, which we kicked around some numbers. Like, how many people have savings that they can't save in dollars right now? And, you know, we we know there are billions of people. So, is it a billion people have $1,000 of savings they want to do? Or is it a hundred thou h 100 million people that have $10,000 savings? It's not three billion with a,000 around that they want to convert into dollars. So, it ain't three trillion, but it's probably something more than a couple of hundred billion. I think when you add small businesses, I I think you can I think you can add another trillion. You think they're going to want to Small businesses are really good at sweeping things to things that pay interest. Well, again in let's say Africa, small businesses throughout Africa, small businesses throughout Latin America, small businesses throughout. No, but I think that collectively there like there's a like in the US the value of small businesses collectively is big, and that's generally true for other places as well. Uh and so I think the combination of of consumer demand and small business demand not just for dollars but for basically a dollar bank account effectively cross cross. I think that's interesting. I think I haven't done the numbers. I'd be interested in the numbers and I I'd be irresponsible to just sort of rough it out, but we are a significant portion of the global economy. The global economy is a collection of big and small businesses. It seems large to be anywhere in the trillions with this type of excess demand. I think we could hit a trillion. Yeah. Okay. I'm at 750. We'll see what the market looks like then. But yeah, I'm mindful of time. I Well, yeah, I think that the key takeaway here, Andy, is that your um your bearish treasury companies, your neutral stable coins, I think the hardcore Bitcoiners are going to love you. I doubt it. But I really doubt it. I really doubt it. Well, you you were relatively bullish Bitcoin. So, there you go. Um but thank you guys so much for the time. I really appreciate it. Um Andy, where do you want to send anyone that wants to check out your work? Dampsprpr.com or I'm dampspring on Twitter. And I really appreciate it from both of you. This was a pleasure and I um really um appreciate the debate. Enjoy the conversation. It's been a lot of fun. Lynn, you close out. Where can people follow you? I mean, I assume everyone already follows you, but but chill it anyway. Uh people can check out lindalton.com or my book Broken Money. Uh and I appreciate the conversation, both you for hosting it, uh and and Andy for bringing up all these interesting points. Perfect. That was a lot of fun. Thank you, guys.