Transcription
My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Now I teach investors the same techniques that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my trading game plan. Of course, I'm Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com.
Now, we just got the jobs data out for November. November, what did we see? We saw an increase of 64,000 jobs according to the government. Unemployment, though, upticked by .1% to 4.6%. Now, you could argue till we're blue in the face. Do we even trust these numbers? And I would agree with you. I tend to not trust them. But ultimately, the markets initially saw a move higher and have now started selling again.
And so listen folks, yesterday morning I cautioned that there are a lot of sell signals out there in the markets based on technical analysis. There was we were opening higher yesterday and what happened? We ended up selling and closing negative. This market is hanging on by a thread. And again the question I have is can the Santa Claus kind of float with light volume into year end keep this market up before it collapses or does it just start to collapse into year end? Either way, we're going lower based on technical analysis.
All right, let's get into the charts and take a look at what's going on here. You can see again, this is the S&P 500, and we can see that this was your candle where we got that jobs data out this morning. Initially, it popped higher because the jobs number was better than expected, but really quickly, the sellers have come out of the woodwork and pushed us down. Now, we're not at the overnight lows just yet, but nonetheless, the markets remain very, very, you know, basically cautious here, trying to figure out is the institutional selling that we saw yesterday at the open going to reemerge.
And this is something I've cautioned you guys about, right? We've talked about this how if we go back to Friday, markets opened here and look at that selling for the first hour and a half of the day. Yesterday, we opened higher again. We saw an hour plus of selling again. And so the markets again are seeing this institutional dumping even into year end which is somewhat unusual. And what does that tell us? It tells us that big money is very nervous about this market right now.
Now that doesn't mean there aren't good opportunities out there. There are stocks that are coming closer and closer to support. We'll look at those in just a second. Okay. But let's flip over to the S&P 500. do a check-in on our weekly chart which continues to show that the upside is unbelievably limited on the market based on this parallel that has literally dictated every major high and low for the last five years. Incredible chart actually when you look at it but nonetheless we clearly see up here that the markets have stalled out. We saw the pullback. Now we saw a great bounce the last few weeks but we're starting to curl over again.
That's confirmed with the QQQ, the daily chart on the Q's. We have this beautiful trend line which acted as support. We broke, we retraced, got everyone bullish. Not everyone, not us here, but a lot of people bullish. And look at the chart. It's starting to roll over. And again, the QQQ NASDAQ 100 is weak again today, looking to open down about a third of a percent. Now, if we do fall in the near term here, the first big support that I have is going to be this gap fill and this pivot low. And again, that will be still a little ways lower. So, there's not a lot of support here, but again, the only positive, and listen, I I wish I could come up with more positives for this market. It's sad to say the only positive I have is that the light volume around Christmas and New Year's may keep the selling to a minimum and not let the market fall too sharply. And again, doesn't mean it won't. It very likely could, but that's really the only positive and that's really not even a positive. If you're reaching to positives of light volume being the reason the market can float, that's again not a great catalyst long term.
Okay, so let's continue on here. The dollar today continues to move lower here. If we take a look at the daily chart here, let me flip back to the daily. There we go. The dollar again continues to fall again in 2026. This is going to be a major chart we follow. And the reason I say that is because you have a trend line that goes back to the financial crisis lows and it has kept the uptrend on the dollar going higher. But if we break it here in 2026, it should cascade quite a bit lower and 2026 could be a very poor year for the US dollar if this trend line breaks. So keep that on your radar. Keep it on your bingo card for 2026.
The 10-year yield continues to stay relatively strong in the near term. It hasn't broken out yet, but just the mere fact that it is holding under this level in spite of, you know, let's say the unemployment rate upticking, the Fed cutting rates, the Fed starting a form of QE by buying short-term uh T bills, all of these are telling us that again investors that buy US debt are getting very wary about the lack of fiscal responsibility in the United States. And it's only going to get worse, unfortunately, until the markets make us correct this issue. And that's going to be something you're going to notice, folks, is that ultimately, just like what we saw in 089, the financial crisis, you know, the the ridiculous lending, the the reckless lending that we saw, until the markets really caused people to take it seriously, it would have continued. But once the markets start to collapse, then people take it seriously. The same unfortunately is going to be for our government is that until the markets, the global markets, the the domestic markets start creating havoc because of the US debt, then likely the the government and politicians are not going to take it seriously. So just the way it is unfortunately for us as we continue to maneuver here.
All right, let's get into some stocks here. This is a great chart, guys. I've talked about this before. We talked about how Tesla's stock was in a wedge pattern yesterday. It broke above the trend line. That's a positive. Now, it's not a breakout yet. Why? Because we need to see it confirm. So, we need to see a secondary close above basically 482. If we get that, this is a confirmed breakout. And you would assume it wouldn't just go to the all-time high of around 490, but it should go above 500. But this is a tremendous move on Tesla yesterday in an overall pretty bad market for technology stocks. And again, they're talking they're now running their robo taxis with no people in the car. Again, great technology, really life-changing technology coming out. Again, whether or not this is overpriced, underpriced, it doesn't really matter to me, frankly. It's because it's all about the chart. The chart right now is a potential breakout. We need to see it confirmed, though. Then 500 should be that upside target.
Oracle Oracle's on my radar here as it continues down. It's getting closer and closer to a major gap fill. This would be a very good probability setup for a bounce. The level is around 176 on Oracle. And again, if it hits that, that would fill a gap. It would also be a 50% drop. And we know how technicals and psychology really looks at things and says we like these even numbers. We like the hundreds, the 200s, the 500s. We also like key pullbacks, right? To say that, hey, I'm buying Oracle at a 50% discount. That's pretty powerful to think about and that's where it would be. And so, I'm keeping this on my radar for a bounce play. Remember, I'm not talking long-term holdings here. I don't trade long-term. I'm a shorter term swing trader and day trader, and this one is on my radar.
All right, next up, let's go on to Nvidia, which is setting up to open slightly lower today. We've talked about this chart the last few days. It continues to be a bare flag that appears to be playing out. So, look for this. I still think it's coming down to this level right down here, the 150ish support level on uh Nvidia.
Microsoft, if it breaks this trend line here at around 467, your next technical level is going to be 453. Keep that on your radar. these mega caps continue to see money rotation out of them into names like Fizer and Eli Liy and kind of these safe haven type plays. Uh inclusive of that by the way we've seen Cava rally up. We've seen Chipotle these beaten down names have caught a bit at least for the near term here.
Couple more charts to go over. Watch Netflix. Netflix has this great ascending trend line. It hasn't hit yet, but we're looking at a break of 90, right around 89 on Netflix. There should be some support there. Palunteer rolling over a little bit. This one stayed relatively strong. What you're watching for on Palunteer is this trend line here. You can see these pivot points. If that breaks, that would be a bigger breakdown force around 150.
So, listen, there's a lot of variation. You're basically between support and resistance kind of in the mid zone here and ultimately do we go up and test the high fill that gap up there or do we come down to this technical level and try to break lower? Robin Hood falling back down. This is a great example of technical analysis guys. When you have a trend line, an ascending trend line and you hit on it multiple multiple multiple times and break there's a tendency to retrace to the scene of the crime and then fall down. This is exactly what's happened here. bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, breaks down, retraces, and rejection right there. Classic setup.
Now, one of my sleeper smaller plays is Regetti. Look at this long-term trend line. I'll be patiently waiting for it to hit. It's right around the $20 even number. Long-term trend line really going back to about a year ago, just over a year, connecting through all these lows. If we hit this 20, 19,50 to $20 level, we should see a good bounce.
All right, let's go to Bitcoin here. Bitcoin getting a small bounce today. Still kind of holding on to this bearish pattern here. I keep on kind of maneuvering to try to figure out what's the correct bearish flag pattern. But ultimately, that's what it's been. And really at this point, if we break here, you're going down to 80,000 and then ultimately 70 69 to 74,000. But again, down move inside bar chop. That's a bearish pattern formation. And again, the downside target. I'll show you guys where that comes from. We go back to our our high from the bull market of 2021. We drag a line across and we lift up a little box that takes us to this area here, these in here, and then this low. And that gives me my support range of where I would expect Bitcoin to go.
Micro Strategies had a bad day yesterday. It's bouncing a little bit today, but again, MSTR guys, you know, the the the problem here is that they've leveraged themselves to the hilt. I mean, they really are at the mercy of Bitcoin even in a bare market. If you think about it and you look at the four-year cycle, if you're a believer in the four-year cycle, you know, we had 2017, 2021 high, 2025 high, Bitcoin has a tendency to correct 70% during these periods. If that happens, where does Micro Strategies go with the amount of debt that they've taken on to buy Bitcoin? There is some risk there. There's no doubt about it. And that's probably why it's now trading below the value of the Bitcoin they hold. People are actually discounting it now based on the risk that Bitcoin could go lower. Wild stuff, guys. Wild, wild stuff.
All right, let's go into uh the chart of gold here real quick. If we take a look at gold, gold is ekking out a small gain. We still have not taken out our all-time highs. As of now, this is a lower high, but we haven't obviously seen a pullback yet to determine if the high is in here. If we can take out the all-time high, then it makes a higher high. That would be bullish. On the other side, keep a very close eye on this underbelly trend line right here for the short-term support. So, essentially what you're doing is you're getting into this kind of consolidation phase where you bouncing, bouncing, bouncing, bouncing. Do we break out or do we break down? Which one occurs? Only short-term analysis here. In other words, I still am a huge believer in gold longer term. How do you not believe in gold when you see a long-term uh fiscal lack of responsibility? But ultimately, again, we'll watch to see if this breaks above here or does it break this line first. And you can see how these are all aligning through these lows beautifully.
Silver. So, silver again, which had a good move yesterday, was down pretty sharply this morning, starting to come back up just a little bit. We'll keep our eye on that one as well. But again, if we can break above this kind of $65 per ounce level, I actually think there's a good shot of getting to 70 before the next pullback in silver. Incredible run on silver these days.
Now, oil is struggling today. All right, so oil is breaking below the cup pattern, right? So, we talked about this is this was a cup or ladle pattern consolidation in here. The key was you do not want to see a daily close below the low here. If that happens, you're likely going to $50 per barrel. Now, we're below it. Let's watch to see where that ends today. Now, some of the catalysts for this are more potential signs that there could be some sort of peace deal reach between Russia and Ukraine, which would then open up Russian oil to the overall world much easier. Now, they've been able to kind of smuggle it out, but once it's open, it'll be much more, you know, much easier for them to flood the market with oil, and that's driving oil down. Now, ultimately, a lot of times, this could be a a sell the kind of the the forecast and then buy the rumor. We'll see, or buy the news, I should say. Um, in other words, if something does happen there, is that is does it start to bounce back up? And we'll have to watch and see how this goes. A lot of this would be determining on economic data as well. But right now, the chart is the chart. And right now, if we close down here, this ladle or cup and consolidation handle pattern would now fail and ultimately that would signal a move down to about $50 per barrel. We'll keep a close eye on that.
And natural gas continues to be under significant pressure here, guys. Take a look at this. Here was my first support, second support, and maybe it wants this full gap fill. Wouldn't that be something? I continue to inch into NAT gas just slowly accumulating. We are now down a whopping, look at this, guys. We are now down from our highs, which was on December 5th. We are now down 31.5% on natural gas. That's about as close to a crash in natural gas as you can get. I mean that is an incredible decline for just basically 2 4 6 eight trading days. Eight trading days 31 a.5% decline. And you can see the energy. I mean a lot of this is probably also from uh Russia Ukraine potentially reaching some agreement. Now listen, we've heard a million times over that there was going to be a deal there to stop the fighting and open things back up. Uh so far nothing's panned out. So you know again until we actually see something we should be skeptical. But I think the the energy markets are absolutely playing into that and you're seeing people nervous that something might get done there and that again is causing some downside in the near term. All right. I still think these will bounce though. If there is a deal, the downside is so significant. We'll see if oil gets to 50 by that point. But I would be a strong buyer at 50 based on the charts.
All right. We have a couple minutes for questions Q&A here guys. So let's get this into uh into our our uh levels here. um if uh Apple's the first one. So I covered Apple yesterday in the game plan and my trading game plan. So for that individual that asked about that, if you watched yesterday, you caught that.
All right, next question is about Cava. So we talked about Cava and how it's been doing pretty well lately. Let me bring up the chart on CAVA. And I actually like the chart here. Um here's your Cava chart. So number one, there's this beautiful trend line that I've had on my chart for a long time. This was kind of a former inverse head and shoulder pattern. We broke out and look that's where we bottomed out right there. Now what I like about cava here at least in the near term is that you're making a move up and then bullish consolidation. So this is essentially consolidation. What you want to see is you don't want cava to trade below this area right in here right around 50 bucks. All right? So it needs to hold the $50 level. If it consolidates down there, then it remains bullish. If it breaks below 50, be a little bit careful. And I only mention that because ultimately, if the stock market continues to get crushed and things get worse, Cabava may struggle to have a move up. Um, it has been somewhat of a defensive play since it's been beaten down so much. But again, right now, the chart is bullish on Cabba here. Classic little um Vbottom with a bullish pattern or a move up, bull flag consolidation.
By the way, CMG, uh, kind of the same pattern, but it already broke out. And that's what's so cool about this, guys, is take a look at this, right? And so, here's that same pattern, that up move with sideways consolidation we were just looking at on Cava. The only difference is Chipotle already rallied to the upside. But the point is here, this is the same pattern as we're seeing on Cava right here. Up move, consolidation. Now, it doesn't mean it has to play out, right? Nothing's a guarantee in trading as we know, but ultimately again, patterns tend to repeat a high percentage of the time. And that's why you can generally say with about a 70% success that a bull flag plays out if it's the same bull flag as you've seen many, many times in other situations play out.
All right, next question coming in saying, uh, Meta, is there a head and shoulders on the Meta chart? Let's take a look. So, um, the meta chart. So, listen, if you if you do go with a head and shoulders, it's way too early to surmise that. So, let me get rid of all these lines on my charts. I'm assuming you're looking at this, right? And then this. And again, you know, you don't know if this is just like this or like generally the rule of, and I'll do a little teaching here. The rule on head and shoulders is they should be semi-ymmetrical. Okay? So, semi-ymmetrical is the rule. Now semi-ymmetrical doesn't mean this side of this shoulder has to be exactly equal to this shoulder. They just need to be very similar. And what I mean by that again is you know generally you can have a shoulder like this and a head and then you know something like that is okay. You know generally the distance here is the distance here close. That's okay. But what you don't want is like you know think about it like this. Do you want a pattern or do you trust a pattern that's like like like this? like that's not that's not a good head and shoulders, right? And so you want to be very aware that it should look semi like I mean the pattern should be at the pattern. It it can't be like I mean you could almost find any pattern in a chart if you try hard enough. The idea is they have to be approximate. They have to be solid pattern formations. And so my only fear in this if I'm looking at what you are referring to is right now I think it's just a little preliminary to say this is a a head and shoulders right the idea is if perhaps we get you know let's just say Meta does this and then kind of does that I mean yeah at that point we can start saying okay there could be a formation there it's just a little too early for that at this time.
All right, guys. So, let's see where this market goes today. Uh, right now, a fair amount of red. S&P's only down about a tenth of a percent. I'm glancing over at my quotes over here. NASDAQ's bounced a little bit from when we started. We're only down a quarter of a percent on the NASDAQ 100, but watch closely, guys. Let's see if that selling comes in or maybe the holiday float starts today. We'll find out.
All right, you guys go have a great rest of your day. I'll be trading in the live day trading room. Come over and join the party there. I'll see you soon. Take care.
>> Welcome to Crypto Combat. Wrecked or Rich.
>> Last episode, the markets didn't just move, they hit back.
>> I am short L2 USD. I'm going to short Ethereum at $3,300. 150x leverage.
>> Guys, I've already shorted Polka Dot here. I've done two shorts already.
>> With 45 minutes on the clock, the pros went full throttle. Okay, I'm out over $660 on that one trade. Love it.
>> Ben landed the fastest profit in show history.
>> It's okay. I'm not I'm not worried. I mean, I'm only out of the money $323. I just need to pull back here on Ethereum and we'll be good to go.
>> This is still strong. He's out of the money about 460 bucks right now.
>> I need more time.
>> But Gareth, he went all in and nearly all out.
>> Okay, one of these trend lines has to work. And I'm gonna I don't delete the trend line, so you won't even know.
>> As the charts heated up, so did the trash talk.
>> It's gonna come down. It's gonna hit my level, dude. I just Give me five more minutes.
>> All right, give us the final tally, folks. It looks like you're hanging on. Close those trades. I see those eyes. Close those trades.
>> And when the final seconds ticked away, everything came down to the wire. New trades, new chaos, new wreckage. Next episode, Gareth joins again. Join us Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. only on Crypto Combat: Wrecked or Rich.