Bitcoin : la suite va être épique !

Hello everyone, it's Trid, a financial analyst, present in the crypto market for 7 years now and holder of the financial investment advisor certification in France. I make videos on YouTube to help you better understand the market and grasp the main components that drive cycles. And I do, on the other hand, a lot of precise work for the community. So you have the link in the description and access to all my work. We are on Bitcoin, we will do a summary analysis and then we will mainly talk about what happened yesterday because it was quite important. So on Bitcoin, for now, we are consolidating at this level. It's not a level that is very crazy with this post-FOMC drop. Because you know, generally when we have good FOMC news, a lot of people enter with leverage, and these leverages need to be cleared before moving up again. We know this thanks to the liquidation charts where you can see that since yesterday, a lot of people have entered with leverage, of course, and that these people must be liquidated up to around $88,000. If we go back a bit further in time and look at liquidations under 30 days, you can see that if we go to a level that maintains the bottom of the markets, notably $869 for example, there are 2.41 billion dollars of cumulative leverage to be sought, and so it would not be at all crazy to go and get them before going higher. This data can be appreciated with this image that I took from another YouTube channel and which is true by the way, and which shows you the returns of the S&P 500 between 1950 and 2024, where we see a rather pleasant phenomenon occurring: first, a bottom is generally formed on December 3rd or in any case early December, a rebound, a double bottom that settles around mid-December, and the rally that begins from that date until the end of the month. So why not come and liquidate these people, maintain this big bottom level and make it a real bottom level in daily and weekly before moving up again. And this is hyper important, actually, the FOMCs. Where I disagree with something that is said is that it is often said that it is a sell the news. It's not so much a sell the news because what would a sell the news mean? It would mean that people who are in this market, who for example have been long on the market since here, are selling and will cause a much lower price extension. What happens instead is that when we have very good news, like we had yesterday, people enter with leverage, and the market will first liquidate these people before going higher. So it's not so much a sell the news, it's more about clearing out the leverages that are in the right direction before being able to start. So we are expecting to have this movement in the very short term by the end of the week. I'm not saying I expect Bitcoin to be lower than this. I expect Bitcoin to maintain its positions. And what does maintaining positions mean? It means maintaining these two very large order blocks that are here, and in which there is enormous demand for Bitcoin. So don't look for this on TradingView, it's not available. It's one of those I'm coding and using for my daily setups. It can be for big market moves, for intraday, for scalping. I have several that are super interesting and I will probably publish them soon on TradingView. So you'll be aware when I do. To understand what's happening with Bitcoin's structure, it's that here, we have a very big order block that was created. But the one to defend is not necessarily that one, it's the one that is here. If I remove the indicator and explain a bit how it works, you have two phenomena. First phenomenon, you have a structural inversion that happens with a range that will be drawn from the bottom up to the top of the movement where here, you can see, we had what is called a CHOCH, a change of character, right here by closing above this level. And so from there, you have this range. In this range, all local bottoms that are around the middle of the range are intra-range liquidity. That is to say, some will see them as bottom zones, whereas in fact, they only serve to create liquidity, and almost constantly we will go below them. That's what we did during this movement here. And so from there, the false reasoning is to say that we had an upward extension, this is the bottom to watch. It's the bottom to protect, and if we go below it, we have a structural inversion. No, not at all. The bottom to protect is here. This is intra-range liquidity. Same thing, same observation. We move, we made a new high. The lowest point that establishes the new high is here. We move this range right here. We put it up to here. And so the real bottom to protect is this one. Moreover, the bottom in which there is the enormous order block which is right here. And so what is happening currently is that I am not moving my range here because here, we had a fakeout yesterday. We had a fakeout, we came to take some shorts, that's not a problem. We turned around for now and we are working on this zone. What is happening here is two things at two levels. The first is that we had a range right here. We came to take the liquidity right there with this wick here and we moved back up. It is entirely possible that we have already had this intra-range liquidity recovery with this wick, but it is still possible to come below this wick to take the lower liquidities. We saw it at the Colace level, the big liquidities to take are almost up to $875 and $87,000, and the $875 are precisely just below the wick, and those above are below these wicks right here. We also saw it if we zoom in on one hour, we have a very big order block which is right there. So it is possible not to go lower than this order block. However, remember that the bottom to protect is this one. And so even if we have a movement that says the most important thing is to protect this bottom and go below it. What we expect next for now is still the same thing, an upward resolution of the price. If the timeframe is respected, the cyclicity is also respected, an upward extension starting very soon. And what I've been predicting, you know, is always a price extension in Q1 2026. That's the deadline I've been giving for a while and which I refer to. This deadline, for me, will be respected even more since we had the Fed meeting yesterday. So we had the Fed meeting yesterday, and what's important is what I predicted in this video right here, which dates back two days. For those who haven't seen it, in summary, what I was saying is that for me, we were going to have a 0.25 point rate cut, as almost everyone thought. However, what I was saying in that video was that in my opinion, we were not only going to have a rate cut, but also what I call an RMP or even a QE. That is to say, what was announced by the Fed was the end of QT. That's it, we stop, the Fed's balance sheet remains flat. We no longer sell assets, nor do we buy them back, we stay like this. I had announced that for me, the Fed would announce that they would relaunch a plan to buy back treasuries, MBS, in short, that they would announce that they would finally start buying back assets with a Fed balance sheet that would increase. And that's what was said yesterday with a plan that is more or less precise, which is partially noted in this document, which is simply the PDF of the meeting. You can go to federalreserve.gov, come here, get the statement in PDF and you will have this document. And so they indeed announce the 0.25 point rate cut. They announce that they are also acting as a counterparty on reverse repo agreements for 160 billion per day if banks need it. And Jerome Powell also announced that they would start buying back tens of billions of Treasury securities from mid-December and that this would be extended over the coming months. So we clearly have what I stated happening, and so I am super happy to have noted it. If you want to know how I can say things like this, it's extremely simple. I told you at the beginning of the video. I am a financial analyst. I'm not just a financial analyst. I also have a master's degree in law, in banking and financial law. I learned to do all these things. What are all these things? It's not just looking at big market moves, YouTube videos, and what's happening. It's my job. It's looking at things as boring as this. This is an accounting balance sheet. It's the Fed's balance sheet. Companies that manage crypto also have balance sheets if they make money. Publicly traded companies also have balance sheets. And this is the boring stuff, ladies and gentlemen, that no one wants to do, but which is vital to be able to predict what will happen in the markets. All those you call Smart Money, hedge funds, banks, and others have people, dozens of people who do this all day long to be able to say "Okay, very good, we have certain legislation, we have financial standards, we have security standards, banks are subject to regulations, the Fed itself says it follows certain patterns in terms of financial ratios. Where are the figures to allow us to understand whether these ratios are respected or not?" And this is something that I simplify on YouTube, and on which, with Audi, who is one of my admins and also manages this file, we had warned you for a while about what are called bank reserves on the Fed's balance sheet reaching too low a ratio. I made the video on Monday, go watch it, the goal is not to summarize or repeat what was said there. Go watch it if you haven't seen it. But we said that indeed, the bank liquidity ratio compared to GDP was reaching a critical threshold. The critical threshold has already been reached, and that's why the resumption of QE was inevitable. Why? Because cutting rates is good, but it creates liquidity in the medium to long term. We know that benchmark rates influence very short-term bonds, influence certain types of credit, particularly consumer credit and others. And this will stimulate money creation via debt in the medium term. However, the problem at the moment is that banks no longer have enough cash. They no longer have enough cash. This cash is running out, and they need immediate solutions. Cutting rates is not an immediate solution. However, QE is an immediate solution to provide money, nothing more, nothing less. And so for an immediate problem, there was an immediate solution. It's as simple as that, and so I'm happy to have done the right calculations and to have been able to guide the community on the right moves to make. What is interesting, and you also have to read these documents. I know it annoys you, I say it very honestly, I know it annoys you to read this, but you have to do it, because you also have to spot the changes in dynamics. The changes in dynamics at the moment are at two levels. The first is that when we read these documents, we can also see the votes because the FOMC is not Jerome Powell, it's a board of governors who are several and who vote. And if the majority votes for something, then the majority wins. And what is hyper important, when we look at the different statements from meetings where they lowered rates, we see the votes, and it has never been unanimous. Never, never, never. In any case, in recent times, and here it is unanimous. So realize that in recent times, the only debate was whether to cut by 0.25. Here, the debate was whether to cut by 0.25 and whether to restart the machine, QE. So something much more important. And so ask yourself, why is it that in a less important decision, we don't have a consensus and some say no, we don't want to cut by 0.25. And now that people are saying something bigger, that is to say, we cut by 0.25 and we will start buying assets again, there is unanimity. It's because the wind is starting to turn. The wind is starting to turn. Jerome Powell is also nearing the end of his term. I think he finishes in May 2026. We know more or less that we will have a next Fed chairman who will be even more in agreement with Donald Trump, and that is to say tax cuts and other mechanisms. And so this is hyper important to be able to predict what will happen next. Another big topic that I will not discuss on YouTube and that I will look at exclusively with the private community will be precisely the regulatory impact because we see that currently there are changes happening at the Fed level. The Fed governors are starting to change their tune and want to change banking regulation, and this will really impact the markets in the coming months. So if you don't want to get information late and you want to see everything live to make the right decisions, it's very simple. You look at the video description, you have the link to our site millennium-crypto.fr. You join us, you take a subscription, and you will have access to the totally private Discord where the whole team shares all its work. The team, we are 7. Everyone is specialized in on-chain, macroeconomics, technical analysis, financial analysis, and we give all our work to the community. We do lives every Thursday. By the way, there's the live today at 6 PM where we will talk precisely about these regulatory changes and others that are coming and will really impact the markets. We also give our positions, our buy prices, our exit prices, our strategies, absolutely everything so that you can approach this market with as much serenity as possible. This being said, and I would still like to make a small reminder about what I see, I am obliged to do it. Sorry, I'll be the annoying uncle for 5 minutes, but it's hyper important. I see a lot, a lot of hate, anger, stress in the markets right now, and in fact, I see something, and I even notice it in the YouTube comments of other channels. Fortunately, on this channel, we don't have too much of that, but typically I was watching videos by Iril, for example, Paul Chrystamation, and I see the number of hateful messages there, from people who haven't done any introspection. What I mean by that, and I'm going to be a bit mean for 3 minutes, you really need to activate your neurons. We are in the riskiest market in the world. I always say it, I repeat it, altcoins, crypto is the most difficult market, it's the most volatile, it's the one most subject to tensions, it's the one most subject to liquidity withdrawals and additions. In short, it's the most difficult market. Paradoxically, we have a market that is the hardest in the world and is made up mostly of people who are not equipped to face it. Retail, Mr. and Mrs. Everybody, especially people who have already stopped this video as soon as I mentioned the Fed's balance sheet, who don't want to make the slightest effort to understand the geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that influence the markets, who don't want to do anything other than technical analysis because technical analysis is super easy, it's accessible to everyone. However, financial analysis and macro are much more difficult, and who then complain everywhere that they are not making gains in 3 weeks. I will make a video for you because it can be quite interesting about the life of Warren Buffett and his journey, because everyone knows Warren Buffett, he is recognized as the best investor of all time. Well, imagine if you went to him and said, "Warren, I don't understand, I've been in the crypto market for 2 months and I haven't made any gains," he would laugh at you, he would tell you, "Take your little portfolio and go do something else." Okay? Go do something else because we're playing in the big leagues, it's not for noobs. That's what he would tell you if he were really honest. And I will make a video about his life. The man who manages billions and billions and billions, he waited for billions for three years in unrealized losses last time. Did that stop him from making gains? No. Why? Because he knows how big market movements work. He studied them, he has people working for him, and he knows that the assets he chooses are very good assets that will go up over time. Moreover, this has given rise to an adage that is hyper important, which is that the market transfers money from the impatient to the patient. So don't expect, and this is hyper important in your understanding of things, and you have to be hyper honest. Not everyone is equipped to face a market like this. To face a market that drops so violently, that also rises so violently, that most of the time does nothing much because Bitcoin does great things. But if we take the altcoin market, especially Total 3 right here, if you take all the time periods during which altcoins do nothing, well, that's about 75 to 80% of the time. If you take the drops and the ranges and only keep the upward extensions, upward extensions statistically happen 10 to 15% of the time. This means something extremely important. You spend 85% of the time on average waiting. And so you have to be patient. You have to be patient in a market made up of impatient people. And so this is where each of us also needs to introspect and say, "Do I have the mental fortitude to hold on? Do I have the mental fortitude, the knowledge, and the skills to hold on?" Unfortunately, a vast majority do not have the knowledge and skills, and that's normal because everyone has a job in their life, not everyone has a passion for finance that is truly exacerbated. So you have to surround yourself with the right people, join the right communities. But where everyone can make an effort is to say, "Okay, I understand the big mechanisms, and here I am patient because I know that on average, 10% of the time it goes up, and the rest of the time it does nothing much, or at least it doesn't do what I expect." And this is where everyone has a small responsibility, and those who are not made for this market, if you can't do it, don't force it, get out. Otherwise, stay in it, but play by the rules, because it's an extremely complex game from which only 10% emerge as winners, these are also statistics. So I was saying, indeed, rate cuts, QE resuming, not necessarily massively, but a little bit, this will appreciate something that is hyper important, and that is liquidity. So you know that Bitcoin naturally follows M2 quite well. You have it here in blue, right behind M2, which everyone watches, but we have had a decoupling for a very short time. We have Bitcoin falling, Bitcoin in white right here, while M2 continues to rise. This is a decoupling that simply stems from the tensions currently in the market. We repeat it again, I've been repeating it for weeks so that everyone can follow. The stress that is currently present is a stress related to bank liquidity. Realize that wealth managers, hedge funds, banks, no matter what, when they look at their accounting, they have their accounting lines like an Excel spreadsheet. Cryptocurrency is at the very bottom. It's the riskiest thing, the most volatile thing, the most speculative thing. And there is an almost automatic reasoning for these professionals: if there are geopolitical tensions, financial tensions, monetary policy tensions, then we clear out the riskiest lines of the portfolio. And so you have altcoins first, and then Bitcoin. And so even when we see M2 rising, if there are tensions and especially uncertainties like there have been until now, then Bitcoin does not benefit from this liquidity. And this leads to a decoupling. Okay? Once this concern is calmed down and we enter something much more stable, then what is called a catch-up will occur, which can be extremely strong because liquidity will pour in. This is a psychological principle. Second principle, which is much more automatic, let's say, is that of course, before psychology, we have to see if there is liquidity. If there is no liquidity, well, it's very simple. Investor psychology, we don't enter Bitcoin, we don't enter cryptos. However, when there is a lot, we just need times when we ease this tension, and Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can see liquidity flow in. And what is very positive is that we know that with the resumption of QE, rate cuts, which will also lead to a dollar decrease in the medium term, well, this will cause M2 here, or at least its change, its year-on-year growth, to resume and reach a new ATH. This is what we can know for Q1 2026. And so, less tension, less liquidity stress disappearing, and M2 rising again means that we have all the elements for Bitcoin and altcoins to perform. Now, when I say perform again, I don't mean 2021, because in 2021, we could see the amount of liquidity there was. This could only lead to a huge bull run with parabolic phases. I'm talking about an upward recovery and reaching levels that are at least those we saw here in October before Bitcoin's plunge, before the altcoins' plunge. And then, that's future music. All we can do is take the data that comes in, analyze it, and say, "Okay, what we have in front of us will stop, or it will continue." So the best way to stay informed is to join the community, subscribe to the YouTube channel, and watch all the videos and everything I tell you week after week. This is TRD. Have a great weekend.