Transcription
This has become a nice tradition. This is, I think, our third time doing this together at the Milkin Conference.
"Third time's a charm."
Okay. So, I hope you're in the mood to talk, Ken.
"Always, right?"
Sounds great. Sounds great.
"Well, what's new this year is um we're in a war."
I I feel like I'm being lured into a trap. You sort of have that sense.
"Never. Never. No. Just a just an intimate fireside conversation with our friends. So the war I I did want to start there. Obviously that's top of mind and I feel like investors here are trying to figure out you know what the economic and market implications are of this war heightened geopolitical risks higher oil prices. So far the market feels optimistic about it. How are you thinking about all of this?"
So we we I mean we're going to go from like the smiley introduction to the war. So, right.
"Let's go from like a happy moment to a depressing moment all in 30 seconds."
Yes. Is it depressing?
"It it is. I mean, you know, there is there's an act of war in the Middle East. There are thousands and thousands of casualties. And no matter how one wants to view the moral justification for the war, it is still a humanitarian crisis. And I applaud the president for having the the willingness to actually try to ensure a nuclear-free Middle East. Like I don't think he has made that case strongly to the American people, but we should all sleep better knowing that he has set back the Iranians in their nuclear ambitions for years, if not decades, over the course of his time as president. This room agrees, but the war is not popular broadly in America."
Like I said, I I don't think the president has made his case publicly strong enough. I think if you take a step back and think about, you know, I'm a bit older than you are, and I look a lot older than you do.
"Not that much."
Thank you. But, you know, when I was a child, there would be those drills in school where you would get under the desk and effectively pray to God as a nuclear weapon was going to strike your city and hope you were going to live in some fantasy world. And we have grown up, children today have grown up post post the end of the Cold War without that fear. It's it's remarkable. and a nuclear Iran would put into question the safety and security of the people of our nation. So I I applaud the president.
"You think he's doing the right thing?"
Look, I think I think that they have made many good decisions here, but they have encountered something that they did not anticipate, which is a a military capacity in Iran and a commitment to the preservation of their regime that is completely different than what they saw in Venezuela. In some sense, the extraordinary success in Venezuela almost certainly led all of us to believe that we could have such a remarkable success in Iran. And Venezuela is one of the great political and foreign policy accomplishments of this decade. I mean, if you think about it, overnight a regime that was adverse to the interest of the United States disappeared.
"Yeah."
And Venezuela, which is one of the great oil producing nations of the world, or potentially one of the great oil producing nations of the world, is now firmly in our orbit. It was a remarkable strategic outcome. All right. So, why hasn't the war in Iran impacted the stock market more? Well, first of all, there is a sense that the the worst case scenarios are off the table. The Iranian military has been successfully contained, but they have not been defeated. In this stalemate situation, the price of energy has clearly gone higher. The United States holistically is largely shielded from that. Now, the consumer not, but fuel efficiency much higher than it was 30 years ago. dependency upon upon automobiles for transportation less than 30 years ago on a per capita basis. The ability for our and and our economy so much bigger than 30 years ago. Our ability to withstand this price shock in in oil is much greater than it is in any time in the history of our country. So we we have that. The other thing that we have is is due to American ingenuity, we're energy independent. Now, we we still need to import products and we export raw crude, but the United States as a net energy consumer is now energy independent from the rest of the world, which is just, you know, everyone forgets that fracking did not exist 20 years ago.
"And it has literally freed our nation."
"Yeah."
"It's it's it's like and and we can't even name in most cases the person who invented this technology."
"I mean, it's like,"
"Do you know?"
Actually, I don't know right this minute and it's killing me.
"But, you know, talk about unsung heroes."
We know the name Steve Jobs. We know the name Bill Gates. But the name of the engineer who developed fracking eludes me at this moment.
"Right. And it literally has changed the the entire trajectory of our nation."
"We also have an AI boom which is helping."
"We do. We do. But I think it's a broader boom. I think it's a technology boom. Again has created within the seauite an embracing of digitization again like a reanalysis of both our business processes how we conduct business how we use technology to further the interests of our business how do we re-engineer our processes to be modern in the context of today's technology and AI plays a role in that transformation but I think the biggest transformation that's taking place is that corporate America is taking a step back and saying, "How do we use technology to further our business interest?" I'll give you a concrete example. I was with a group of seven or eight of the world's largest companies, CEOs, and we're doing around the table. I I sort of set these games up. Everyone share with me the story of how you're using AI to transform your business because I want to know. I got six or seven extraordinary stories of how these cos were transforming their businesses. All of which involved technology, none of which involved AI."
"What does that mean?"
"That means that the subtle details of how the problems are being solved, they actually didn't know."
"But it doesn't matter. What they do know is that they've empowered their technology teams. They've in they've empowered the people within their businesses that work on optimization and logistics to embrace technology more aggressively and they are transforming their businesses on the back of doing so."
So add it all together and it sounds like a very I mean maybe it sounds like you agree that the outlook is is okay and we can withstand the oil shock, the geopolitical shock. Stock market's at an all-time high. I think 5% higher than it was before the war.
"Well, you made you made the question a bit different there. Okay."
"Okay. We can withstand the energy shock."
"Right."
"Many of the developing nations around the world cannot."
"That's right."
"And that risks materially reducing global GDP and will have knock-on effects here in the United States if this stalemate persists. All right. So that's an important point. The United States as an economy directly shielded from most of the adverse consequences of the war. But if you're Pakistan or Bangladesh and you've had a curtailment, a literal curtailment of the availability of energy, your economy is already taking a major hit and that will spread across the developing world as energy continues to become more and more scarce. that will create the conditions for a global recession and the United States will unquestionably feel some of that pain if this persists for 6 months or 9 months or 12 months longer that will happen."
What about the inflation problem? You know, we we see it prices at the pump. Do h how longasting and how severe of a problem do you see with inflation? Because there's a big debate. Is this short term or or is it more persistent?
"So, uh, have you been to McDonald's recently?"
"Can't say that I have."
"Okay. Have you?"
"Oh, yes. I haven't had McDonald's Coke since this morning."
"Oh,"
"You have Coke at McDonald's in the morning."
"Absolutely. Do you have coffee?"
"I have coffee."
"Okay. You have your sin, I have my sin."
"So, you know, 250 for a Coke. And before the Biden administration, it was 99 cents. The United States has has endured prolonged and persistent inflation now for six years. And in some sense, the the rise of gasoline prices at the at the gas station, I I it's like a triggering event. Like it it just brings back to all of us the fact that the purchasing power of the dollar has declined so precipitously for six years now. You know, what's what what do you pay for eggs in New York City today? Well, they're not as high as they were in the last, I don't know, year. They've come down a little bit, but still high."
"Seven, eight, $9"
"for a dozen eggs."
"Mhm."
"Right. Like"
"The brown ones."
"The brown ones. That's what we get at home. I"
"I could make so many jokes that I'm going to sort of skip that moment."
"So, so the big picture is"
"Do you buy your own eggs?"
"Um, in a typical week, no, but I have been spotted at Target shopping for groceries."
"That's good."
"So, so big picture is is is I think everybody in our country when we see a price shock in any of our day-to-day commodities, gasoline for example, it's just deeply triggering. And I I think that there's just a general apprehension of how much more purchasing power are we going to lose because of the economic policies that we're pursuing in Washington. And I I think it's very important that this administration and that the legislature continues to stay focused on how do we strengthen the purchasing power of the dollar? How do we make sure that Americans Americans paychecks go further?"
"How do you do that? What would you like to see?"
"Well, deregulation's a big help."
"Well, they're doing that, right? They're doing that. That's a that's an active focus of the administration. Increasing productivity is a big help. You know, people forget that what happens in a highly competitive economy like ours. If AI lets companies run their businesses more efficiently or for that matter if technology lets their companies run their business more efficiently, ultimately that value acrru back to the American people both in the form of their dollars go further at the at the cash register and number two is wages ultimately go up. You know, there's a there's a constant focus. Why is Washington focused on the word productivity or why do economists always talk about productivity? Because higher productivity is the path to prosperity. Yes."
"And we need to increase productivity in our country. We do that through deregulation. We do that through investments in research and development. We do that through educating our children to be the the future leaders and scientists and engineers that our country needs. These are all mechanisms that we use to increase productivity. And and I got to tell you, America needs to profoundly increase productivity over the years to come."
So, do you think the Fed will be able to do anything this year?
"I think the Fed this year is probably on hold. You know, inflation, core inflation is still running above target and now the risks have tilted to the upside of on inflation given the energy price shock and the labor market's strengthening again. So from that vantage point, I think the arguments that we saw, and it's hard to believe just eight weeks ago, 10 weeks ago, that we needed to cut rates further this year are looking a bit dated at this point in time. It's good to see the strength in the labor market starting to to pick up again."
"You think that's that's happening? that's real because a lot of I mean some people are worried that as more AI adoption grows there will be more layoffs and that we're near full employment."
"So so we are near full employment which means it's it's hard it's hard to create jobs because virtually everybody is employed. AI adoption at some companies will will cause some jobs to disappear and I I worry about that. You know, for example, if you translate books from English to French or French to German, that job's been largely eliminated. Yeah."
"And those are people who've had careers. I mean, you you could be 55 years old and have have been a translator for 30 some years of your life"
"and that job just disappeared. And we don't do enough as a country to help people go through those mid-career shocks that come with technology transformations. just as we as a nation let people down when we outsource manufacturing to China. So we need to focus on how does one with dignity gain new skills mid-career. But having said this, AI will create a plethora of new jobs in ways that we've never even thought of. I mean, take a step back. How many web designers did you know when you were a teenager?"
"None."
"None. How many video game designers did you know when you were a teenager?"
"No social media influencers either."
"No. Miami would have no business."
"Yes."
"LA would be sort of in the same boat."
"Yes. Now it has um Miami has a lot. It has influencers. It has Ken Griffin and it has other companies"
"has Palanteer, our newest our newest big win."
"Did you convince Alex Karp to move to Miami?"
"I I did not, but I was there at Alex's opening celebration party. And I gave him a big hug like, "Welcome to Miami. Whatever I can do to be helpful." and I hope that he felt as warmly greeted as I was when we moved to Miami several years ago. It's been wonderful to be in Miami as a fast growing business."
Speaking of warm greetings, um I was going to do this I wanted to do this interview outside your apartment, but I thought I thought it would be creepy and weird. Um, so, how did you feel about the the mayor's little video?
"Um, it was creepy and weird."
"Agreed. I"
"I mean like knock knock on the window. Like, huh?"
"Mayor of New York City."
"On the screen. Yeah."
"Yeah. On the screen. Like"
"Yeah."
"How many times have you watched that video?"
"Three."
"Three."
"It I had to go back."
"I couldn't help myself."
"You had to what?"
"I had to go back and look at it again. I mean, like, you literally looked at the first time and you're like, you you got to be kidding me. Okay. And then the second time you're like, you know what, this is actually this has gone from creepy to actually not really creepy. This has gone frightening because you know the CEO of United Healthcare was killed just a few blocks from my house."
"And anything that creates like an agitation in the extremist on either side of the aisle is a frightening dynamic. I mean, you know, if we look at what happened in DC,"
"that's scary. If if we look at what happened in DC just um a few days ago, you know, political violence should have no room in our country. And you know, I've had my differences with President Trump over the years. I've also had a lot of wins with him, but the idea that he has survived three assassination attempts is just un is just incomprehensible. I I mean, could you imagine the state of mind that you would be in having survived not one, not two, but now three separate crazy people trying to kill you?"
"No. I I was there on Saturday. I was traumatized just being under the table and they weren't targeting us."
"No, but but but he was ready to come back and do the speech."
"So, and that's that's one thing you have to admire, right? the resiliency of this man to get back on his feet when frankly most people would just would just cower in fear. I mean, he you know, that that imagery from that assassination attempt um during the during the presidential campaign"
"on Pennsylvania."
"Yes. Such a powerful moment."
So what are you going to do about mom Donnie?
"So, uh, first of all, for New York public schools, I'm happy to buy a copy of Animal Farm for every ninth grader."
"Yeah, that's good."
"And uh, and and Mayor Mandami, you just shoot me an email, give me the delivery address. I'll I'll get them shipped right away. But I think that the children of New York actually they first of all, they deserve an education, which he seems to not be aligned with me from an interest-wise. you know his push back on for example the gifted program is is truly a sign of not being gifted. How are we going to compete with the Chinese with the sharpest people in India when we do not develop the god-given talents that our gifted children have in America? I mean, we celebrate celebrities like there's no tomorrow but frankly the economic capabilities of this country the you know, if you look at the Silicon Valley and you look at this AI revolution, it's a handful of people are critical to the entire narrative that is driving this boom in America and these are the gifted people who are not just from our country but from around the world who have come to the United States to be on the leading edge of as my son puts it this is the Manhattan project of his generation."
"And when Mandami shuts down the gifted programs that educate the future engineers that will create prosperity in our country, he leaves all of us far poor."
"But New York public schools have struggled now for several administrations. How about we give success academy a chance to open more schools in New York?"
"Been a big supporter,"
"right? If you want to actually raise the standard of living for New Yorkers, raise the skills that they have to bring to the job market. This is the charter school in New York that just does incredible job."
"Uh the charter school in New York that actually as a as a charter school system outperforms the most affluent communities in all the state of New York with the demographically most challenged population in the city. And there are five successmies opening in Florida in the next two years where her work is embraced by our political leaders who want to see the children in Florida have an education and to have a bright future. So you Ken, you left Chicago several years ago because of bad policy and crime and mismanagement. What will you do in New York? you are planning a $6 billion office building at 350 Park."
"So, you know, I said earlier that Americans are triggered by inflationary signs like higher gas prices. I I think for myself, I think looking at at what Madami just did to me and more broadly is doing the city of New York is triggering of the of the trauma I went through in Chicago. Chicago went through a renaissance during most of my 30 years there and then under the leadership of JB Pritsker, Lori Lightfoot, and the current mayor has just has just devolved into a state that has lost its way. Violent crime being the biggest problem. You know, I and I wish I had the image to sh put up here. There are 25 bullet holes in the ground floor of the building that I lived in."
"Bullets."
"Bullet holes. bullet holes, like impacts from bullets. And across the street was a beautiful Dior store. And they would shop at that store at night by driving a van through the front window. And then 50 people would run to the store, empty the shelves. That store was across the street from me. They tried to carjack my security driver outside my front door, and there were probably five homicides within 500 yards of where I called home."
"Lovely. So"
"yeah."
"Time to leave."
"Time to leave. You know, I had a colleague stabbed outside the front door of our building. I had a colleague's house burned down by an arsonist. I mean, I could just go on for the next 10 minutes about muggings, about bullets flying through people's cars. it it became impossible to recruit people to Illinois because the question be posed. I love the job. I love the people. But will my family be safe here? And you couldn't look somebody in the eyes and go, "Your family will be safe here." Like you couldn't you like the best you could do is I hope they will be. I hope they will be. And and this is this is really a story of the of the progressive left. I mean, Rahm Emanuel as mayor, I think he did an extraordinary job of helping to to deal with the issues that we had in our public schools that we had with with crime on the streets. You know, one of the things that we did in Chicago that I'm really proud of is we is we use digital technology to forecast where crime could occur. I helped to fund this work and we would actually preposition police officers in these crime hotspots. We brought murder rates down in one of the most difficult neighborhoods by 50% in less than two years. That's lives saved. That's both political leadership, thought leadership, and execution from our from our police department. and and we saw the JB Pritskers and Lori Lightoots of the world dismantle these gains that we were making that were really improving the lives of people who depend upon good government to make their lives better."
So where does that leave us at 350 Park?
"That leaves us with the fact that we went to Miami and revised our building plan to make it a bigger office building."
"You're bailing."
So, so what do we do at 350 is is a still a point of discussion internally, but what is no longer a point of discussion is that Miami is now, you know, one of the when when we moved from Chicago, there was a debate between New York and Miami. It's unquestionably true that we made the right choice. I'll leave it at that. It's unquestionably true that we made the right choice. And now and now what the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners and principally my New York partners, my New York partners is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami because we want to be in a state that embraces that embraces business, that embraces education, that embraces personal freedom and liberty, and that embraces people having an opportunity to live the American dream and a dream of earned success. Not a dream of redistributive handouts that leave people dependent on government for their lives and their livelihoods in a way that takes away dignity and honor."
Miami America I mean we we this is America 250. I know you've been thinking a lot about that. You are clearly a patriot. I think you've acquired your second original constitution. Um you you think a lot about leadership and what makes this country great. It's how you grew your two amazing businesses, Ken. So, how are you thinking about, you know, what the future of this country looks like when it comes to political leadership? It's so divided. It's so toxic. And as as you said, there's a lot of discontent.
"Look, the the polarization in our country is not good. It's not good. There's and and part of this is a side effect of gerrymandering. And I almost wonder, are we now gerrymandering states? If you we're in California, one of the greatest states in our nation, but the proposed bill to have a wealth tax on billionaires means that Larry Pa's child is now my child's class in Miami. And we've seen a mass exodus of of business leadership from California to Texas to Florida. You know, Mandami is making it really clear New York doesn't welcome success. Are these states trying to push away from their populations those who really do believe in the merits of capitalism, the merits of a free society, the importance of education. I mean, to me, it feels like Illinois has been very successful with this undertaking. If you've opposed JB Pritsker, you probably left by now. You've had enough. It's just not worth it every day. It it What did it feel like in Chicago with JB Pritzkar as governor? It felt like being a salmon stream swimming upstream to die."
"That's that's a nice that's a nice image."
"Yeah. Isn't that a nice way to end thing?"
"Yeah."
"But it it just it felt very it felt like pointlessly hopeless."
"Now, the great news is most of my friends from Chicago are now my friends in Miami."
"It it's like we still all get together and have pizza together and we play cards together and we go do things together. So, that's that's been a nice upside of this. And a number of those friends are people who would tell you they were diehard DB supporters until the the price of the progressive policies hit them personally. There's only so much capacity that we all have to deal in a lawless society."
But how do we make sure at the at the country level you know that this goes right because we are in a fight we're fight with China you know this technology revolution there's so much at stake.
"So, you know, somebody posed this question to me recently and I and I I talked about in the context of education. The issue of education, for example, should no longer be thought of as a blue state versus red state issue. It needs to be thought of as a national emergency because you're spot on right. If we as a country cannot align on the importance of education and cannot be willing to adopt the best practices across the country nationwide, we will lose that competitive dynamic with China."
"And where in America, for example, is one of the great shining stories of education?"
"Miami,"
"Mississippi. Oh,"
"why"
"Mississippi put in place both a new program to teach children phonics, shocking concept, bit like going back to the past and ending social promotion. Mississippi is now top 10 in America in education and adjusted for demographics is number one in the country. But we need to look at which states are taking which steps to really educate our children and to push those programs across the country. Likewise, we need to understand what creates vibrant and thriving cities. You know, for example, in the north, the presence of a world-class university is very important to economic vitality. Northern cities anchored by great universities have been able to thrive over the course of the last 30 to 40 years. those without such universities have generally struggled and struggled in a profound way. We as a country need to take a step back. What works to create prosperity and productivity and we need to embrace those concepts and push them across our country. We need a little less polarizing rhetoric from Washington and a lot more focus on just thoughtful problem solving."
"Yeah. education and now educating them for the new world of artificial intelligence. What's the what's the single factor you look for when you're hiring someone new at Citadel out of school?"
"What do I want? I want I want people who are who have high aspirations, tremendous pers uh perseverance and grit. You know, show me an a show me an athlete who did well academically. An athlete because they know what it takes to win and they have had to experience loss. And when they excel academically, you know that they know how to manage their time and that they they'll have the grit and the perseverance to use their mind to excel in work. And in particular, I want people who are lifetime learners because today more than ever, the rate by which you'll have to learn new skills on the workforce will be profoundly higher than even 20 or 30 years ago. I mean, think of all the change that we've seen in our lifetime. Now, now play our lifetime of change back at 2x the speed. That's what your college graduates of today are going to face."
Well, Ken, I know as always, we've we've all learned a lot from you today. So, thank you for your candid thoughts always. I'm glad you were in the middle mood to talk. You always are. Um, it was certainly a treat for me and I hope for everybody in the room. Thank you.
"Thank you. Thank you so much, Sarah. Thank you for joining us. The session will begin momentarily. Thank you for your patience."