Transcription
Yeah. [Music] Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and I want to talk today mostly about this government shutdown. Then we're going to talk about the final leg into what I believe will be the top for the four-year cycle. Starting pretty much right now. I'm going to kind of try to be as nice as I can about the idea of alt season being just around the corner and show you some compelling ideas for why that could be the case. And then as always, we'll take a quick look at some charts, some TA, some live positions, and all that kind of thing at the end.
Just before we get into today's episode, I wanted to quickly remind you that tomorrow around midday UK time, we're going to be doing a live stream to celebrate 35,000 subscribers. Slice have already kicked off the celebrations by giving us a 90% discount for you guys to use. For anyone that wants to try it out and see what we do over there, just use code camel 90. I know a bunch of people have already gotten behind that. And tomorrow during the live stream, Ben has generated me 15 lifetime discount codes to give away. I think the discount is something like 60%. Don't quote me on that. I'll tell you the real number tomorrow. I'll make sure I know ahead of time. And I'm also going to give away a bunch of like merch stuff and tell that to the bond market mugs and clothing and cycle PDFs and a bunch of other stuff too. So please do come and join us for an informal kind of hangout and party session tomorrow and see if you can get yourself some free stuff. And you can already go ahead and use this 90% discount for Slice if you're interested. I believe this thing expires tomorrow at the end of play. So this will be today and tomorrow is your last day to claim this discount.
Now today of course marks the day where the government is officially shut down. Okay. And people have been asking me about this pretty much every day for a little while now. And I've been quite dismissive of it. Mostly because nothing really tends to come of these government shutdowns. At least nothing of interest to me as a trader, right? Normally the markets just kind of shrug this stuff off. Nothing really happens. Who cares, right? I would say normally this has less of an impact than something like CPI or FOMC where normally then we get a bit of chopping and games and volatility for a day or two. But this time is slightly different and I'm going to show you why. That's why I'm covering this in a bit more detail today.
So, I saw this and this is what made me actually do a bit of digging, right? Apparently, this is what the president wants because this is a quick way to reduce costs and start to lay off government workers. This time around, the government's going to be closed and certain key economic data releases are not going to be coming out on the normal schedule, right? Because the government's going to be shut down. So, the macro is harder than ever because they continuously lie about the data. And now we're having to deal with this, right? Shut the government down and don't release the data at all. To me, as a quite paranoid individual, this just feels a bit fishy to me. But we're going to continue to get through this. I'm not really calling for anything spectacular, although as I'll show you in a moment, we are going to head for some cycle lows in the short term for the stock market. So, this is quite interesting timing at least pertaining to those cycles.
And speaking of the economic data, okay, we got Chicago PMI just come out on a 40 handle. This is super significant because any print below 50 is indicative of economic contraction. Okay. And a print above 50 is indicative of economic expansion. But you can see that we have been in a recessionary look for some time here and it's not showing any sign of recovery at least for now. The other couple of things that were interesting is Jolt seemed to come green. Okay, fine. We got more job openings marginally more that is. But remember the article I wrote that was actually extremely well received showing things like non-farm payroll jobs created. Okay, still very recessionary at the hard right edge. And the job openings for manufacturing extremely recessionary as well, right? So, I don't really think it makes much difference, right? It's going to take an awful lot to undo some of this. And then, of course, we've got the things like consumer confidence coming in red as well, below expectations, significantly below the prior readout as well. And here we got the United States consumer confidence straight from this article. Again, look at the hard right edge, right? Extremely recessionary. Look here. And as if all this is not bad enough, now they're going to shut down the government and not release any further data, right? Like with PMI looking like this. So, this is kind of a weird situation to be in, right? And it's so weird that it has me, somebody that is very openly distrusting of the mainstream, turning to CNBC for answers. Okay, so this is by no means recommended. This is by no means me saying this is a trustworthy or reliable source of information. But I thought for a change of pace, we'll just go to CNBC and see what they think about this. The stock market typically glides by these previous government shutdowns. As I said, like not really much happens, right? That's why I normally don't pay too much attention to this. This government shutdown is likely going to result in the furlow of about 750,000 federal employees and over the weekend the president has been threatening mass firings of federal workers under the shutdown. So it goes back to this idea here that is likely that we're going to get a bunch of layoff and costs cut as a result of this government shutdown. The average daily return during the funding gap tends to be pretty much flat, right? So again, it speaks to the CPI and the FOMC being significantly more volatile than these government shutdowns. Hence why I tend not to pay too much attention. But this time around, the market is likely to focus on the length of the shutdown since a prolonged closure could delay key economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting late October.
I would love to hear from you guys right in the comments. Does this speak to them cooking the books even harder than they already have been, right? Is that what this is really about? Or is it potentially that we're about to get extraordinarily weak economic data and they're trying to do something to kind of hide this fact? The Labor Department said on Friday it will shut down virtually all activity, meaning the September non-farm payrolls report would not be released at the end of the week. And in the case of no jobs data, the reading on private sector job creations from payroll processing group ADP on Wednesday morning is expected to take on greater significance. So again, this is what I've been talking about over and over again, isn't it? like they release some data and you look at the trend and you try to do your macro analysis and you try to figure out what's going on only for them to quietly revise the data down and now we've gotten to the point of just straight up shutting the government down and we're not going to get the data at all. Right? This all to me seems extremely fishy and this is why I'm such a proponent of actually heading into a recession. I don't think the people that are saying that we can go up only for a while or no more bare markets or Ral Paul's ISM 5year cycle. I don't believe these people are right for the simple reason if they were the government wouldn't be doing all this jiggory pokery and chicainery to hide the fact that the data is recessionary right if the data was legit and there was actually no recession risk wouldn't they just report the data as it was if everything really was okay I don't think they would need to be doing all of this stuff right and again maybe my tin for hats on too tight maybe I'm just way too paranoid but all of this to me kind of seems like they are clutching at straws here and doing everything in their power to kind of patch over the holes in this sinking ship to slow the rate of the sinking down. And again, like even CNBC are reporting this here, right? The lack of government data, especially with all important BLS jobs report on Friday, does lend a concern as it was due to be released during a recent period in which the labor market showed signs of weakening and was a catalyst for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates just a couple of weeks ago.
As I'm reading this now, I'm wondering if perhaps it could be the other way, right? Maybe this jobs data was about to come out incredibly strong and we're about to get the first real signs of relief here and that would mean that the Fed could maybe go ahead and not start to cut rates, right? Or pause the rate cuts at the moment. Something that the president doesn't want, right? So is that what's going on here? Does the president understand that actually the jobs data is about to reverse trend and we're about to swerve a recession and the soft landing call is actually correct and maybe he's stepping in here stamping his feet and pounding his fists on the table saying no, no, no, we must have rate cuts, right? And to be honest, I don't think that's likely. I think it's much more likely that they are doing everything in their power to hide the fact we are already in a recession. But you can see here, right, the complexity of this is incredibly high. Like it's so difficult to deal with this macro data set as it is, let alone with all of these games being played at the same time.
The last thing I wanted to point out is this right here, which is normally these shutdowns end fairly quickly and they pass without much dislocation to equity prices. But in the meantime, investors are going to have to lean into other data to try to figure out what's going on. But that's where we come into our own here, isn't it? That's where the camel crew has the real advantage, the real alpha here, because we actually don't need the data. We just need the cycles. And at least for the stock market, we've been looking for a daily and a weekly cycle low. It also seems possible to me that this is the first drive, the counter trend bounce, the second drive is coming, and then that will be this, right? It will just be from here. Happy days. we get long out of this and we are ready to add some positions and moon out of the government reopening into what I believe will be the major four-ear cycle top for the S&P 500 and probably for Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin's already leading the way, right? I think we can already see that here getting ready to break out, right? The indicator doing indicator things. The weekly cycle low once again showing us that there was underlying momentum in the market. Somehow it knew this was coming when everyone else was looking for lower lows. So that's one of the powers of this thing of course and gold continues to rip higher because central banks continue to buy as much of it as they can possibly get their hands on whilst the rest of the market seems to be sleeping on this opportunity. So if we can use this whole idea of shutting the government down and creating a stir as a narrative to pull the stock market down a bit. In fact, let's take a look at the US 500 right here. So you can see like this first drive is complete. So is the counter trend bounce, right? One new lower low just below this prior low from the 25th of September. That would give us our cycle low, swing and reversal, open the government back up. That will give us the narrative to explain away the cycle low, the reversal, and the upside price action. And then all will be right with the world, right? We'll be on our way to the final all-time highs. So, although this stuff is fun to look at and fun to speculate on and talk about, at the end of the day, cycles remain in control and everything else remains narrative.
The last few things I want to talk about here today is Bitcoin and alt season. Brother, I know you're awake. Welcome back to the physical realm, little dude. I was transverse in the astral plains. It must be awesome having the purity of a child because that dream world, right? You get to surf the astral without any corruption to consciousness. Yeah, I end up in the lower plains a lot of the time. I bet you're up there in the upper. Anyway, enough of cult camel. So, over in the world of Bitcoin, right, September monthly candle closed green with a 5% gain. And nine out of 12 times October has been a green month. Are we going to see another bullish October? And again, I defer you to the cycles, okay? Because right now, the cycles are in control. We're working on a breakout. If we get that breakout above this downward slipping and red resistant line is on, right? We have confirmed the daily and the weekly cycle. I see a lot of people being concerned at the moment that quote, we have wasted potentially 30 days of this cycle going sideways already. But remember, we did the exact same thing back here. Weekly cycle low, inversion, and then off we went. So, what if I copy and paste this fractal here and drag this thing across? Is it not possible that something like this could be coming? Okay, I think it is. I think that's entirely reasonable. So, one day at a time, as always, cycles are in control as always. But I think pumptober is indeed going to be a nice big green bullish month. We have all waited four years for the next three months. And now we are finally here, right? We're finally in that October month where we get the last three months of the year take us to a top. It could be three months, it could be slightly more, it could be slightly less, but this in theory is where the money is made. This is where all the gains occur. And if you're an altcoin guy, this is also in theory where you've got the biggest shot at your altcoins sending. If this indeed is breakdown retest, looking for resumption, then now would be the time to see it. As Bitcoin is making its final run into the top, distributing and rolling over, then we can expect this thing to really start to break down, for altcoins to really start to moon. And keep in mind, what we tend to see is we get the Bitcoin top and then about 4 weeks laterish, we get the bottom in Bitcoin dominance. We saw this in 2021 about 4-ish weeks after Bitcoin tops. We get the ultimate low in Bitcoin dominance. There's about a one-mon lag where Bitcoin liquidity moves into altcoins. And if we're right about this call here, then we are just a few weeks to a few months away from seeing Bitcoin rip into an ultimate high top and roll over. And as it rolls over, that's when we should be looking for Bitcoin dominance to break down. That's when we should be looking for altcoins to rally. And you can see on the left hand side here, Bitcoin tops. Okay, a month later, Bitcoin dominance bottoms. You'll see it also really starts to accelerate to the downside after the top comes in for Bitcoin. Same deal in the 2021 cycle. And again, really starts to accelerate to the downside, the Bitcoin dominance as the top comes in. So, we are potentially just a few weeks away from seeing everything moonshot. Again, it really is true. We have all waited four years for the next 3 months and now we are finally here.
I think we've already done the charts. There's not much to say, right? We are looking for a daily and weekly cycle low for the stock market should be driven by this government shutdown narrative. Gold and silver continue to rip higher. Happy days. Okay, long and strong until such time as I can see a reason to leave. Bitcoin is about $1,000 away from truly confirming it is party time and we're doing my yellow squiggle, albeit from a slightly different spot. I think we'll put it here. And again, all this talk about rate cuts and speculation and government shutdowns and blah blah. We don't need any of it, right? We just tell that to the bonds market. The 10-year yield rolls over and that's it. Rate cuts are going to stay on the table. In fact, let's check the CMEs. 94.6%. Right? Things can change and they can change quickly, but they haven't changed yet. We will indeed be seeing a 25 basis point cut of the next FOMC. And at least for now, we'll be seeing cuts again in December's FOMC 2.
So, other than that, do let me know in the comments what you think about this government data, right? Is it all nothing? Is it all a bunch of Fazi or are there some games a foot? Also, do join us tomorrow at midday for the 35k subs party and a bunch of giveaways. And other than that, trade safe. Watch those cycles. I'm your boy Camel. Until next time, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. Camel finance. He's the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream. Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Finance got