Transcription
Nvidia stock is gaining momentum again lately. After the company reported fantastic quarterly earnings results and trade tensions are easing, as President Donald Trump held a meeting with his counterpart in China, announced a deal with the United Kingdom, reduced reciprocal tariffs, and so optimism from stock market investors has been increasing. That's benefited Nvidia stock, but what about longer term? Where will Nvidia stock be several years from now?
More specifically, where will Nvidia's stock price be in the year 2030? That's the question I'm going to answer in this video by conducting a scenario analysis to determine where I think Nvidia stock price will be by the end of 2030. I'll share with you all of the numbers, the assumptions, and the estimates I'm using to make this stock price prediction, so you can follow along and see for yourself if you think my prediction is too optimistic, too pessimistic, or if it's right on point.
Before we get into the price prediction, I want to thank the sponsor of this video, finch.io. They've partnered with me and offered a 15% discount for all of the viewers of my channel. There's a link in the description for their services. One of the things I really like about the Finch platform is the segment-specific information, like revenue on Amazon's AWS segment or operating income on Amazon's AWS segment. It really helps me analyze companies and determine whether or not these companies are attractive investments.
All right, so now let's get into the stock price prediction. And I'll start with sharing with you the estimates that I'm using to make this stock price prediction. And I'm getting these numbers again, as you can see from Finch Chat. The first number I'm going to need is Nvidia's 2028 earnings per share estimate. Now, this is an estimate from the Wall Street analysts that are following Nvidia stock, and they believe the company will deliver $657 in earnings per share in its fiscal year 2028, and that would be an increase of 14.7% from the year prior.
The analysts on Wall Street are forecasting Nvidia's earnings per share growth will slow down in the next three to five years. And I agree with that sentiment because Nvidia's earnings per share has grown so phenomenally over the previous 3 years that there is inevitably going to be a slowdown. Because large companies of this size have difficulty growing at that much speed for an extended period. So there needs to be a consolidation period where the market absorbs the products that it's selling and then continues to accelerate from there forward. So I'm going to assume that the company's growth rate remains at around 15% for the forecasted period I will be forecasting.
And also one more thing to note is that Nvidia's fiscal year is ahead of the calendar year. For example, in the most recent quarter, Nvidia reported fiscal year 2026 results, even though we're still in calendar year 2025. So, Nvidia is roughly one year ahead of the calendar year in its fiscal year. So, I'm going to account for that in my estimates for its earnings per share and then adjust for that because I'm making a price prediction for the calendar year 2030. I'm not making a price prediction for Nvidia's fiscal year 2030. So, I'll make a note of that. I know it's confusing and annoying that companies are allowed to do that, but you've got to talk to somebody else other than me about that because I don't make those rules. Companies are allowed to have different fiscal years from calendar years.
All right. Another data point I'm going to use to make the stock price prediction is the forward price to earnings ratio. And I'm getting this chart again from Finch. And Nvidia's forward one-year price to earnings ratio is 28.71. Okay. So, I'm going to use this number when conducting the scenario analysis and predicting where I think Nvidia stock price will be by the end of 2030.
All right. So, now that we have the numbers we need from Finch, I can jump into my spreadsheet where I've made several scenarios, forecasted earnings, and conducted an analysis for where I think the stock price will be. Let's start up top here for 2028, the earnings per share estimate. Remember, $657, that's the number I got from Finch. This was a collection of the Wall Street analysts that are following Nvidia stock and what they believe Nvidia will deliver in earnings per share.
So for my prediction for the year 2030, I would normally need the earnings per share for 2031 because I'm using the one-year forward price to earnings ratio. So I need the earnings per share in 2031 to make my prediction for 2030. But remember for Nvidia, I said that they're roughly one year ahead in reporting their financial results and their fiscal year compared to the calendar year. So for Nvidia specifically, I'm going to need the earnings per share estimate for the fiscal year 2032 to make my stock price prediction for Nvidia in calendar year 2030. Again, please remember calendar year and fiscal year different for Nvidia. That's why I need to do these adjustments.
So, I'm forecasting that Nvidia's earnings per share will continue growing at 15% per year until 2032. So, that's what's embedded in this forecast here between 2028 and 2032. What's embedded is a 15% growth rate. So, earnings per share growing from 657 to 756 to 869 to 999 and ultimately 11.4949 for fiscal year 2032, which is the number I need to make my Nvidia stock price prediction for the year 2030.
So, now that we've made the forecast for the earnings per share that we need for our price prediction, we can jump into the scenario analysis down below here. Earnings per share, if it remains on track to come in at $11.49, and the forward price to earnings, which I shared with you earlier, that's the current forward PE Nvidia stock is trading for right now. If its forward PE remains the same between now and 2032, then the stock price could rise all the way up to $330 a share. The current market price as of this recording was $141 a share. So in that scenario, Nvidia's stock price will more than double over these next five years.
But that's not the only thing that could happen, right? We're talking about the future, and there's multiple scenarios that could happen in the future. So I like to model several scenarios to give myself a better idea of the potential outcomes in the share price. So, if the forward PE were to increase to 32, then Nvidia's stock price could rise all the way up to $368 a share. If the forward PE were to decline to 25, that would still mean that the stock price increases, as long as the earnings per share remains on track to come in at $11.50, the stock price could more than double in that scenario to $287 a share. If the forward PE ratio were to decline all the way to 22, the stock price would still rise in that scenario in my estimate up to $253 per share.
So in the four scenarios I've evaluated here, Nvidia share price is increasing, in some cases more than doubling over these next few years. But just because I haven't modeled any scenario where Nvidia's stock price is declining, that's still a possibility. I don't think it's a very likely outcome, but it's still a possibility. It's a nonzero chance. And the major way I would see that Nvidia stock price could decline over these next 5 years is a huge miss on the earnings per share estimate part, not in a big change in the forward price to earnings because the forward price to earnings is already uh relatively cheap. Um but I guess if you have a company if its earnings per share are declining or if the earnings per share is not growing as estimated that could bring down enthusiasm for the stock and the forward PE ratio could also contract. So you could have a scenario where the earnings per share are coming in much lower than expected, which is creating investor sentiment decreases which also decreases the forward PE multiple, and the stock price could fall from the current price of $141. Again, I don't think that scenario is very likely but possible.
Where do I ultimately think Nvidia stock price ends? So out of these scenarios, where do I think is the most likely outcome? I think Nvidia's share price will be somewhere in the range of $340 per share to $370 per share by the end of 2030, which would mean a more than doubling of its current share price, which of course I will be happy about because I own Nvidia shares. And I have Nvidia rated as one of the top nine stocks to buy right now. As you can see in my stock price recommendation list here, which you can get if you subscribe to my channel or if you actually join my channel as a member at the investor tier, you can get access to my spreadsheet where I have hundreds of companies rated as buy, hold, or sell as well as hundreds of companies where I have calculated a discounted cash flow valuation for these companies. Did you know that over 90% of the people that watch my channel are not subscribed? It'll really help support my channel if you hit that subscribe button. And oh, by the way, one of the benefits of being subscribed is that I take requests from subscribers more often than I do from nonsubscribers. So if you prefer that benefit, please subscribe to the channel.