Transcription
They are setting the conditions for a
world war. Putin may be strategic, but
Trump most certainly is not. He's doing
it for whatever. He wants unlimited
executive power. That would define him
as a dictator. He is a blowing America's
greatest [music] strengths. What is uh
the operational, let alone the strategic
level of doing this?
>> Can you see fascism coming back?
>> Yeah, it is. It's not even
controversial. What's going on with ICE?
why you have to brutalize people. Is
this America's future? Is this what
Americans want their kids to grow up?
World War II looks like it's self
fascism. That [music] generation of
people who understood they're all dead.
They're going to barrel us all into a
world war.
Professor Payne, honor having you here.
Do you believe we are entering a third
world war?
>> First of all, it's a pleasure being
here. An honor. Uh we have reckless
leaders in many countries across across
the globe who are focusing on
operational objectives which is me
staying in power and if other people
don't like it me is still going to be in
power and they they are setting the
conditions for a world war right we
currently have wars in the Middle East
we have big war in Ukraine right there's
war big war in the horn of uh Africa.
Uh, the Sahel is anything but stable and
we have China wondering whether Taiwan's
the next thing. And if these things ever
merge and it's going to be truly ugly.
Countries want to attack Europe from
both sides, the United States of America
and the Russia.
>> Ah, there has never been a situation
like this. I think
>> yeah the United States is currently
following a continentalist foreign
policy. It is a horrendous mistake. The
United States continues it'll be a
moment of precipitous decline and it'll
be a decline of Americans own making and
in the case of uh Europe your your
problem is Russia and Ukraine. The
United States is a long way away and uh
it's interesting about alliance systems.
You think about the reason they form is
because everybody trusts each other and
they work together. Actually, what forms
alliances are existential threats. So
Europe is going to use this one to
improve its institutions to integrate
and you and Europe you have a really
deep set of institutions that you lacked
in 1945 when it was a real mess, right?
when you had the Red Army all through
Eastern Europe as a poll, you would feel
this deeply, right? And now there are
all kinds of institutions and Eastern
Europe is part of the whole thing. The
Eastern the European Communities is the
European Union. Uh and so you have ample
cards at your disposal to play this
well, but the United States is taking a
time out from the positive sum
rules-based maritime order to do a
negative sum continental event. And it's
in the age of nationalism. It won't end
well.
>> And you see fascism coming back.
>> Yeah, it is. It's not even
controversial. It's what's so amazing to
me as you look at World War II. And you
know, it was fought to get rid of
fascism because that was such a mess.
And then you're left with communism.
It's World War I that gives you fascism
and communism. That's the mismanaged war
that gifted us. fascism and communism,
but then World War II looks like it's
self fascism.
And then that generation of people who
understood, they're all dead, right? All
the people who uh lived through World
War I, the Great Depression, World War
II, and gained tremendous wisdom from
the horrors they experienced, they're
gone.
>> Do you worry about the replay from the
1939?
Um, I worry about uh looking at reckless
leaders uh who are thinking at the
operational level they're going to
barrel us all into a world war. And if
that happens, it may be terminal for all
of us. So, we need to do something other
than that. It is in no one's interest to
do so. Putin and his buddies are all
sticking together and the ones who have
doubts apparently go flying out of
sixstory windows,
but ultimately they're going to become
the menu items of the Chinese and the
Chinese will not treat them well. Why?
Because the Russians have treated
Chinese horrendously over their long
histories. Uh the Zars took territory
from China exceeding US territory east
of the Mississippi that like divides the
continental states not quite in half.
And uh thereafter Stalin's telling Mao
to halt his offensive at the Yangza
River when Mao's doing really well in
the civil war because he wants a divided
China. Mao eventually figures it out.
Stalin's fighting the last Chinese in
the Korean War and making the Chinese
unlike the United States which gives its
allies a lot of things. No, no, no. The
Russians want cash on the the the barrel
head. And then the Russians are thinking
trying to get the United States to allow
them to nuke China in the 1969 border
war. And we go, "No, not going to do
that." So, uh, the Chinese know all
about this. So, now the tables are
turned. They're strong and Russia's
weak. Have fun with it because the, uh,
Chinese are going to come get them. So,
then for the Russian elite, you got a
choice. Do you want to be at the Chinese
the tender mercies of the Chinese or of
the Europeans, the Western Europeans,
where there is a large tradition of
forgiveness, right? Look at Germany and
France. They're not refighting World War
II. They've put that behind them. So,
Russia wants to put things behind it.
Big boo boos under Putin. The only way
is through Europe to do that. The
alternative for Russians is their
Chinese and they will eat their lunch
and the Russians wonderful racist that
they are. Um, talk about the Mongol
yoke. When the Mongols uh took over
Russia for the 13th century, Russians
became the tax collectors of the
Mongols. This extractive role that
they've never shaken. That's what they
do is shake people down, right? Give me
your protection money. Uh, they're
that's going to be back. That's their
future unless they do something with
you. Look at what ICE is doing here in
United States. It's it looks like
Mussolini 2.0.
>> Yes, it does. It absolutely does. And
think about uh there are many Americans
who are going to the streets and
protesting this. And that story isn't
over. This country, like all countries,
has a positive part of it history, but
it has a very negative part. This
country was based on slavery. Talk about
the most evil thing you can do to
others. Poland has its own stories of
intolerance to different ethnic groups.
Right? This is human that we humans what
we do to each other and we have not
fully uh overcome our legacy of slavery
and what we've done to others. And uh
there is this brutal undercurrent to
America and what's going on with ICE. Uh
why you have to brutalize people. Uh
this is um uh there are many Americans
who think this is terrible and uh we'll
see. This is the great question. Is this
America's future? Is this what Americans
want their kids to grow up and and be? I
I I get it. Uh you want immigration to
be legal and you don't want people who
are illegally coming in. They need to go
home and they need there are people who
come in quite legally like you did,
right? You came in with a passport and
you're all visaed in and that's perfect.
other people need to come in that way.
So, by all means, you want to enforce
these things, but this gratuitous
brutality and is uh and then I think
about all these mass people and they
think they're big tough pe ICE agents.
What a wuss.
I mean, I'm just a dumbass professor and
you have me here asking me whatever
questions and then I got my name on it.
So, what are these ICE officers doing?
If you're not proud of it, then don't do
it. Take the masks off and be who you
are. Oh, and this is I don't know if
this is true, but apparently the
Russians hacked Well, they have hacked
many of our databases. And apparently
Vlad the Bad in Moscow has dumped the
names of the ICE agents um into the the
internet to make it available. I guess
he's mad about the uh the Russian cargo
ships that are being boarded now. So now
he's dumped the names apparently. I
don't know if this is true. You can go
double double check, but it would fit
the uh no honor among thieves
continental mind mindset. So the
continentalists do not cooperate well
with each other. They just do their own
things. Whereas democracies can
cooperate and it's powerful.
Institutions allow people to cooperate.
It's powerful.
>> JD Vance, your vice president, calls
himself an isolationist.
>> Okay.
>> Do you believe him?
>> Well, he's like a chameleon apparently.
he changes his stories. But uh yeah, I
can believe that he's an isolationist.
But here's the problem with that. Um
what was it? Is Churchill or someone? I
think it was like a Harvard commencement
address. I can be wrong. He said that
because America's gone through these
phases of wishing to um play the ostrich
and the world will go away if I shut my
eyes. Um, and I think it was Churchill
who said, you know, uh, you can turn
your back on problems, but they will
come knocking on your front door whether
you like it or not. So, uh, he may be in
isolation. We had America Firsters, the
original America Firsters, right? And I,
you should look for, if you haven't seen
it, I don't know in Poland, did you?
Yeah, you wouldn't have. Um, there's a
very famous children's illustrator, Dr.
Zeus, but he was a cartoonist in uh
World War II and he did a great cartoon
about America firsters who were saying,
"Oh, we don't have to worry about the
Japanese and the Nazis and all this
other stuff." And his great cartoon came
out the day before Pearl Harbor. And
it's like, "Oh, yes you do. Yes, you do.
Problems will come your way."
>> Is American isolationism just an
internal rhetorical tool?
>> No. It's real.
>> It's real.
>> America has real domestic problems. And
so voters are looking at it and going,
"Look at all the money you wasted in
Afghanistan and uh Iraq and exactly
where did that get us?" And of course uh
our European allies told us not to
Americans want to keep hard control over
Europe.
>> The United States is never going to get
hard control over Europe. Dream on. If
the United States keeps doing what it's
doing, it's going to get expelled from
its military bases uh uh quite rapidly
and then it the dollar will no longer be
the reserve currency and then that'll
lead to a debt crisis in this country.
But you know what? I could be totally
wrong about this. I'm not an economist.
Try try an economist to uh work out how
all that works. But yeah, uh we're
making what I would call pivotal errors.
A pivotal error is once you make it,
there's no going back to the way the
world was. So Vladimir Putin's invasion
of Ukraine, there's no way of him
undoing that one. He's off to a whole
world of hurt. And if the United States
does not reverse course on destroying
our key strengths, uh, no one's going to
give them back to us
and the decisions going forward will be
worse than what were available to us
before we did all these own goals,
right? You know, an own goal is when you
score a team, you score a goal in your
own net for the other team. It's a
unwise thing to do if you plan to win
the game.
>> Do you see history repeating itself?
>> So, I'm just going to do them in
chronological order and it's just me
thinking about things. Who knows whether
they're the right things? I think about
1914,
all of these parallel wars where
everyone's got different objectives.
This is and then it coaleses into a
world war. But when you look at the two
alliance systems in World War I,
the members of each alliance system
can't agree what their ultimate
objectives are. They all want different
hunks of territory in different places.
And a lot of it's even mutually
exclusive within alliance systems. So
that war starts, it goes global, but no
one can end it because you can't end it
without your allies because you won't
survive the event. But you can't agree
among your allies how you would end it.
How would you ever get winnings that
were sufficient to satisfy everyone? So
that's one analogy. So let's do another
one which is 1918 after that war is
over. That war blows
um the
uh the it blows a variety of dynasties,
right? the Romanov dynasty in Russia,
Hoen's Island uh dynasty in Germany,
Hapsburgs in Austria, Hungary, they are
gone. And meanwhile um theQing dynasty
has already gone for different reasons.
And you are into a whole new world as a
result of all of this. And you wonder at
the end of the Cold War um and we've had
this wonderful intercold war period when
China and Russia turned inward. The
United States more or less followed the
rules and that's over. So anyway,
they're wondering about whether you're
getting these tectonic changes of the
United States absenting itself from its
allies and things like that. Another one
would be the the 1918 one actually
pertains to something a little
different. 38 you can think about
Munich, right? Where um the the I think
it was the Manchester Guardian said that
Munich it's uh selling out your friends
in order to appease your enemies, right?
this clever phrase where um you look at
the US sellout of its allies going on
currently and you wonder, okay, is that
an analogy of the world breaking down?
And uh you think about uh the victors
after World War I, you have the Germans
who go rogue, right, after when Hitler
comes to power. And now you wonder
today, is the United States going rogue?
How's that all going to be? It's like a
US and Germany swap of places. Uh,
another possibility is you can look at
1947
uh and when Russian land grabs and uh
its uh behavior in general made clear
that the World War II Grand Alliance was
over, right? And so everyone goes, "Oh,
gee whiz, we're into a cold war." And uh
so
you wonder with the United States what
what the long-term plan is going on
here. And then a final one that I had
which is the McCarthy era. This is US
domestic politics. So you have a
populist Republican Senator Joseph Mh
McCarthy who's targeting the Democratic
party saying they're all a bunch of
communists and his accusations are
mostly inaccurate. I mean there were
communist spies. It's just McCarthy had
trouble figuring out who who who was who
in that one and by the he winds up being
uh censored by the Senate. So he's a big
deal in 1950 by 54 he's been censored by
the US Senate and he shares something in
common with Donald Trump which is his
lawyer um Roy Khan Akone who advised
both of them and Aone's advice is never
apologize or admit any wrongdoing always
counterattack with greater force and
receipt use the legal system uh as a
weapon not as a recourse to justice
manipulate media ruthlessly use fear as
a shield and a sword and build a
fortress of loyalty around self. So,
this is advice that apparently Trump
took to heart in the 80s and it works up
to a point, right? McCarthy got censored
and he died rather a miserable left uh
death as did Roy Khan. The United States
is currently gravely
u weakening the all the things that
make it strong, right? It's weakening
its alliance system. It's blowing its
funding for
is all over again. 1920s,
1930s.
>> Uh we're repeating a number of mistakes,
but we got a different strategic
uh situation. Europe now is strong.
Europe is wealthy. It has a massive
>> Do you truly believe that Europe is
strong?
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, Europe
needs to invest in a military.
Uh Europe is very wealthy. only some
countries like my country like Poland
but uh I think that we are exceptions a
lot of people think that Europe is
overregulated that correct we spent you
know last 10 years mostly trying to
introduce legal systems legal framework
>> that's important that is those are the
institutions that channel decisionm
that's good preparation for the moment
that we're in right now and if you think
how radically things have changed. I
mean, go back to 2022
and ask Germans about how they're
looking at Nordstream 2 and other things
compared to now. It's a radical
difference because of this existential
threat and alliances are formed by
existential threats. It's less about,
hey, I like you or don't like you and
it's much more about who is coming to
destroy me.
And you think about the one of the most
um effective alliances in human history
was the alliance among Britain, the
United States, and Russia in World War
II. Right? It's because Hitler posed an
existential threat. Well, Putin, clever
guy, is posing an existential threat to
Europe. The guy's got a fraction of your
G&P. Uh you can you will be able to deal
with him, but it'll cost. Till now I
thought that former form of European
Union is over. We spent tw last 20 years
mostly reforming our internal legal
system.
>> I got it. And now you're going to be
reforming your security system. And you
think history ends? It most certainly
does not. And that every generation has
to make its contributions. So your
generation is on right now.
Do you consider Trump a psychopath?
>> I'm not a psychiatrist.
Um,
let's rather than
getting into whether you do or don't
like Trump and whether you're going to
be a psychoanalyst, let's just look at
what he's doing, right? And let's psycho
psychopath comes to motivations and
things. What is he doing?
>> Uh, what is he doing? He is blowing
America's greatest strengths
which are its uh alli global alliance
system whether it be one of them it's
scientific expertise
it used to have massive soft power where
people were actually interested in uh
emulating parts of the United States not
anymore and if this keeps on going the
United States dollar is going to lose
its status as a reserve currency and
that'll be quite something when that
happens because it has implications for
the US debt and all sorts of other
things. So here's a framework which I
think helps to to when you're thinking
about Trump and other people. So there
in warfare people talk about the
tactical operational and strategic
level. So tactical or we can look at
politics as a draw parallels. So
tactical is I have a piece of military
equipment example I always use is a tank
tank it can shoot so far a certain
caliber ordinance can destroy the tank
and then you put these tanks together in
tank units but at the operational level
uh which is a battle or a campaign
whether you often it's take territory
defend territory then you're going to be
putting together all kinds of tank units
air units a whole ground units a whole
series of things that's the operational
level. But here's the level that
actually counts
strategic level, which is why are you
doing this? So, let's go to Trump. He's
really good at the tactical level of
saying really fun tweets that really get
his base going. They get global
attention
>> to public space, right?
>> Public space. Yeah. He can do things
like invite Zalinski to the White House
and have JD Vance gang up on him, two
fluent English speakers, uh, and then
treating a guest in this way. And so you
get a little at the tactical level,
they're they're doing this power play.
Uh, but then what is, uh, the
operational, let alone the strategic
level of doing this? Or better yet, with
the Canadians with all these tariffs,
you go at the tactical level. United
States announces we're going to do
whatever it is to Canada. And so it
makes it look like I'm so powerful.
Well, Canadians are readjusting their
entire security framework. Also,
Canadians as individuals are boycotting
US goods. Wouldn't you? And Americans
would do the same thing if Canadians
were doing it to them. So, the United
States has a tremendous number of
politicians who are focused at the
operational level of getting me
reelected, but they what's going on now
is going to prejudice the security of
their children.
It's profound. It's what the original
question is. We're barreling our way
into a world war by doing these sorts of
things. Other people, another thing I've
talked about is half poor tennis.
Americans are focused all on team
America. Well, get in the other side of
the net because team Russia and team
China and team Europe. Uh, and also
there's there's this thing called the
third world like which is lots of other
people are going to be making their own
decisions. Maybe we should try to find
the reason what's happening now in Obama
politics that he was mostly focused on
peace.
>> Well, I'm uh not a fan of monocausal
events. Uh nor am I a fan of saying ah
there's this one person, right? So let's
to take Donald Trump or Barack Obama.
They represent large parts of the United
States. So it's not just one person.
There's a whole ecosystem out there. Um,
but there's a whole other thing that's
driving things as far as I can. You're
asking me about American domestic
politics. Even though an American,
that's not my expertise. I've studied
the tortured relations of Russia and
China. That's where my expertise lies.
But as an American just living here, um,
Americans having trouble making ends
meet and paying bills and they're
struggling and they're trying to
identify what has happened to them,
right? And they're looking at it and go,
"Well, it's immigrants or they look at
all the uh identity politics there, all
these things." But I wonder whether
they've identified the problem correctly
that they're having trouble making it.
But I wonder if they haven't
misidentified the root cause. And one
cause I'll toss it your way and you may
know much more about it than I do. This
would be a just a hypothesis. If we got
three people in the United States who
presently uh own have more wealth than
the bottom 50% and these three people
have basically amassed it in the last 10
or 15 years, it means the US tax system
is broken. And if the tax system is
broken, it means you're allocating money
in all the wrong directions, right?
because people are trying to either get
their special paragraph in the tax code
and then you make sure you've got
someone on the Democrat and Republican
side to keep your little paragraph in
there to do whatever. But um this has
profound effects through society. So I
wonder if that isn't part of the problem
is there's just and then if you're going
to be hating immigrants then you're
going to start hating Europeans and away
you go. It's like blaming outsiders. And
isn't this human? We all love to blame
other people for our troubles. Look at
Putin. Oh, it's all it's NATO expansion.
D, you know, Russians and they're all on
board with that instead of no, your
country's screwed up because guess why?
You haven't unscrewed it. It's your
country and the United States has
problems. Guess why? It's us. Um, it's
our failures. And we don't want to look
at it that way. We want to blame other
people. What's the optimal posture if
United States commitment becomes
transactional? Because Trump is
transactional. It is transactional. What
about why why is there even become
there? Right now it is transactional.
All right. You're going to wait and see
what happens in the midterm elections.
And so they're coming up fairly soon.
And we shall see whether it's a double
down. Everyone thinks, "Oh, it's great.
Let's keep doing this." Or or whether
you start seeing a rethink about this is
a a great mistake. There's no one on
this planet I don't believe knows
whether the current trajectory of the
United States is the last gasp of a
bunch of old people in which case it
feels like sort of the Soviet Union
right where you got what was it Brev
who'd had a stroke in 76 and he's sort
of hanging around until he finally dies
and then you got uh Cher Yenko and a
drop off who drops off or whatever I got
them backwards and then finally you have
to do generational change and then of
course the new generation kills the
patient trying to save it, but we we've
had this sclerotic leadership on the
United States. So, is it just the end of
that
uh and then we're going to be off to
something better or um is this the the
new future of the United States of this
authoritarian country? I mean, you look
at the level of cruelty.
>> Is it the new future for United States?
>> Two diametrically opposed possibilities.
I don't know the answer to that
question. For instance, um I've given a
lecture on the Cold War and there are
two umbrella explanations for why the
Cold War turned out the way it did. One
and they're based on the same data. One
of them it took every single failing of
the Soviet Union, everything smart thing
the West ever did in order for it to end
the way it did. Um which means the West
barely won. Or the other one is the
Soviet Union was such a a mess that it
was inevitable to end the way it did. So
those are same data. The story is when
you're dealing with 9 billion people or
whatever the world population is uh that
uh what happens in the world is an
aggregate of all of that. None of us
knows the answer.
>> What is one thing Europe and Poland
should not do? Uh what it should not do
uh is act like all these problems are
going to go away and sit there and just
uh ignore national security issues
because um and and thinking that oh
there's a a really important thing and
this is for liberals uh who many of whom
the last thing they would ever want to
do is visit a war on someone else.
understand that you do not choose
necessarily when wars begin. If it's a
war of aggression and you're the
aggressor, sure, you may decide,
but ask Ukrainians when they whether
they decided the day that war was going
to begin. They most certainly did not.
And so it is uh the rules-based order is
something you want to protect within
castle walls. So as in the last cold
war, the castle walls held. It wasn't
great. It was no good for Poland because
you were in the wrong castle walls. But
for those who were in the west in the
castle walls, they live perfectly decent
lives while funding very large military
budgets and they're going on great
family trips. While as you would know
Phil well being from Poland, what Poles
live far better than Russians that they
lived in a misery of their own making.
So this is the importance. You better
make sure the castle walls will hold and
then you will live wonderful lives where
you're at. And think about it, where
does everyone want to travel? Uh, mega
people included when they want to travel
abroad if they've got some pocket
change. Be Europe. Why? Because it's
beautiful. It's wonderful. The
architectural heritage, everything. Uh,
convenience of travel, the works. So,
uh, you have a wonderful place to live.
Protect it and you'll keep it regardless
of what idiocy goes on in Washington.
>> What can Europe do to break the United
States Russia wedge?
>> I don't think there is a US, United
States, Russia wedge. I mean, Putin uh
loves it that um the war in Ukraine he
doesn't love. It's not going well, but
they dreamed of breaking the Atlantic
alliance and Trump is delivering that
one on a platter to them. So, um, but I
don't think Trump is doing that. So,
you're worried about some strategic
thing for Trump. Uh, Putin may be
strategic, but Trump most certainly is
not. He's doing it for whatever. He's
he's got his He's a real estate mogul.
He's like, I want this territory, this
territory, this territory. And then at
the transa and at the tactical level, if
you if we're in the room together, he
wants to dominate whoever's in the room,
right? And whatever it is, I want this,
I get this. And then if I don't get
this, I up the ante. So I didn't get the
Nobel Peace Prize, so Norway, here I
come. I mean, uh, okay. So, um,
you're you will be okay in Europe. Uh
the the the problem with continental
dictators is they aren't willing to make
uh any meaningful sacrifices for each
other.
>> Do you recognize Trump as a dictator?
>> He's a continentalist. So it's a
question of he wants unlimited executive
power. Um that would define him as a
dictator if that's what he really wants.
Apparently he said so, but I mean
correct me if I'm wrong what he said
lately. It changes, right?
uh you don't know from one tweet to the
next.
>> Should United Nations be fundamentally
reformed?
>> It always has been incapable. The United
Nations was never capable of reigning in
the behavior of the veto holding five
because they just veto it, right? It was
never capable of doing that. Um,
organizations like the UN get reformed
as a result of warfare in really big
ways. If you're going to change around
who the veto players are up there,
that's how it has. Or it takes really
great states people to uh but can you
imagine a president of France saying,
"Oh, gee whiz, we're going to give up
our position as a veto player on the UN.
our last claim to kind of uh great power
of of of the uppermost echelons. Can you
picture that happening? Because actually
we need to make way for India which ops
has a billion people on the planet. Um I
don't see them I see them vetoing that.
>> Is the United States ready to surrender
Taiwan?
It ain't ours. But um the great question
and the rules-based order is based on
sovereignty
and it would if the United States does
not lift a figure finger about Taiwan.
>> Vaswani called for that.
>> Oh, what a great guy. Um yeah. Well, I
that would not surprise me of him saying
that at all. But if the rules-based
order goes down, it's rather like the
oxygen in this room. We all take it for
granted. If the oxygen disappeared,
you'd notice it rather rapidly. It means
you're into the law of the jungle where
even if the United States is a big
country, um it's not bigger than the
combined everybody else and everybody
else is going to be uh wanting to pay us
back for doing the awful things that
we've been doing. It's it is these are
profound mistakes. They're what in
sports terminology they're called own
goals. And it and if go back to my
framework, these are all tactical and
operational decisions that are being
made in the United States for people who
want to stay in power. It's at that
level. It has nothing to do with
improving the lives of their children,
of improving the prosperity and security
of the United States. It is actively
undermining those things, the long-term
things, for the immediate things. That's
what's going on.