Week 8 Fantasy Football STATS vs FILM

Welcome to week eight and welcome to Stats Versus Film, where we go through every single game that we watched, basically every single fantasy relevant player, and combine that with the underlying metrics, the spreadsheets, the stats, in order to help you win your matchup this week on route to your fantasy football championship.

Hayden, I thought we would start today's session off, uh, a little bit differently. Uh, last week, you know, we're a third of the way through. We are creeping closer and closer to halfway through the fantasy football season. Over on Tankathon, everyone's favorite website, I want to bring up the top 10 teams right now. The top 10 picks: the Jets at 1, Miami 2, Saints at 3, Tennessee 4, Baltimore 5, Cleveland 6, Vegas 7, Giants 8, Cardinals 9, and 10 Texans. And pose this question to you, which of those 10 teams are you most surprised being in the bottom part of the league?

It would be the Ravens, but I don't find that that interesting, just all because of the injuries. I think the Texans and the Cardinals are the two teams that should be in the playoffs if they're like, serious about the rebuild that they've been going through over the last couple years. And I think the Texans is is most alarming, just because the offense is once again bottom five, bottom 10 in a lot of metrics. To me, CJ Stroud has taken a step back, and I think that's correlated to feeling the pressure of the offensive line. And then Nick Caserio is still doing some interesting things that I just don't dis- just don't agree with. And the one-on-ones have just been really bad at both tackle spots. So, I don't think it's that shocking that they're here. And then with the Cardinals, their offense has just kind of been stuck in the mud, and they haven't been able to run the ball. Uh, and I think that's been the the primary reason why they're at number nine as well.

I'd put the Cardinals definitely high up on this list, and especially in comparison. And I'm sure ownership is looking at the rest of the NFC West, where all these other teams are fantastic this year, and but each of them are, you know, dealing with their own issues. Obviously, you have a new coordinator in Seattle. We'll talk about them in a moment. Uh, you have in LA, down Puka Nacua. You have Matthew Stafford, who missed all of training camp, uh, with a back ailment, and they look like arguably the best team in the NFL. And then you have the San Francisco 49ers, who have now gone four games without their starting quarterback, and yet they still look like one of the best teams in the NFL, and all of the injuries, both on offense and on defense, and still performing at a high level. And yet here you are, Arizona. And we'll talk about it. I think there should be a legit quarterback controversy, uh, in Phoenix/Scottsdale, too.

Then on the opposite end of this equation, let's talk about picks 22 through 32. Obviously, Green Bay doesn't really count because, uh, well, they do count. They've just given their pick over to Dallas for the Michael Parsons trade. But 22 Seattle, 23 Rams, 24 Lions, 25 Steelers, 26 Broncos, 27 Bucs, 28 Eagles, 29 Patriots, 30 49ers, 31 Green Bay Packers, and 32 Indianapolis Colts. Who stands out to you there?

Steelers, Patriots, and Colts would be my answers. I don't really buy the Steelers staying here. I do think that the two other teams are going to have a chance to to make some noise in the playoffs. All throughout the the Patriots, the Patriots defense the previous year was really bad. They spent upwards of $150 million on the defense this offseason, and then they get Christian Gonzalez back, and all of a sudden the defense is playing well. But on top of that, Stefon Diggs is starting to make some noise. Josh McDaniels, he thinks he catches a lot of strays from the media and from, I think, a lot of people in fantasy. He's undeniably doing a fantastic job. And then the the Drake May leap. You could think about that. That was going to happen. It's actually happening. Like, that could have taken another year, two, three years down the line. It's here already. So, like, that's like what, four things in a row that have gone the Patriots' way, and all of a sudden, I do think they are a real NFL playoff team, and I think that Drake May is firmly in the top 10 conversation now, and if not even higher than that.

Yeah. I mean, you bring in Harold Landry, you bring in Robert Spillane, even Kwity Paye, who are kind of, uh, either starters, average level on other teams, or kind of castoffs from multiple other organizations, and then you bring them in, and they're playing at a high level. And then obviously, you pay, uh, Milton Williams a ton of money and get Christian Barmore back. Uh, it really is such an environmental change for the New England Patriots, and shows you how much of a difference coaching can make. Mhm. You know, just coaching philosophy can make, confidence can make. On top of this, where it felt like last year, Jerod Mayo and the OC and everyone just were clueless in some occasions, and Mike Vrabel is not clueless when it comes to this team.

Yeah, there was a lot of people mad that Mayo got fired, and boy, look at the turnaround. Pretty night and day.

We'll continue on with a bunch of those teams. This is not the end of the program. As you know, we lead off with kind of the top stories around the league, the headline teams, and then go in alphabetical order. Thank you all so much for tuning in to this episode every single week. We know it comes out late on Tuesdays. We know you have to decide between this and whatever HBO program you are watching at this very moment. So, we definitely, definitely appreciate you tuning in throughout the entire season. And if you're new around here, or if you never have before, hit that subscribe button, as we are on the hunt for 170,000 subs.

All right, it's one of those teams that we discussed, the Seattle Seahawks. Hayden, our buddy, long-time Justice Mosqueda, posts this chart every single week with any A values through week seven. The Seattle Seahawks are number one on offense and I think number two on defense. That makes them the best team in the NFL. Do you think that is sustainable for the Seattle organization?

First, maybe not, but they are a damn good football team. Their defense, they have so many talented players in the secondary, and especially up front. But you go back and watch that Texans game, the scheme is so good. On top of that, that's why McDonald was brought in there. But they're doing like double corner blitzes. They're making sure that offensive linemen are responsible for somebody, then that guy drops in coverage, and here comes another blitz. It's just really sound stuff on the defensive side of the ball. And then the offense, it's just exactly what they want to do is they run the ball. I'd say fairly good for how bad the offensive line can be, and then they can just hit these downfield shots with JSN and Sam Darnold. And the the JSN stuff is is I think the number one reason. And then Sam Darnold, easily the number two reason why we've had this total breakout. And you just look at this chart right here, deep target catch rate. Not only is JSN getting like the most downfield targets in the NFL, which is stunning. This is a slot wide receiver coming out. He's also catching one of the highest rates of them, too. So, credit to Sam Darnold, who really has not missed many throws at all. And his play under pressure has definitely been way better the last two years than it was the first, what, four or five years of his career. So, I think that's all positive signs, and I think all of that is very realistic to to keep happening. I know you also posted a chart outlining what the top 50 scoring wide receivers, and they all, all of them other than Puka and JSN, have some up and down weeks. It really is amazing that JSN has catapulted himself along with this scheme. Again, it's one in the, what, opening three weeks of last season, the New Orleans Saints looked like they were going to put up 30 points on every single defense, and then injuries hit them in a massive way, and now we're just getting that with a huge degree on a weekly basis here.

Yeah, did want to bring up this chart. The top 50 wide receivers here. You can see the red and the green. Green being good. And we get a lot of comments about, oh, this wide receiver failed this week. Like, you guys don't know anything. You guys will appreciate fantasy football a lot more. You'll sleep better at night when once you just fully grasp that it's super volatile week to week. Like, all, like the best players, like all of a sudden, Nico Collins is terrible, and then he's great again. Waddle's good, then he's bad. LaPorta sucks, now he's great. And it just goes back and forth, back and forth. Like you said, the two exceptions to that rule have been Puka, JSN, and also throw Amon-Ra St. Brown.

I do have a disagreement with what you said about running the football. Uh, again, we can look at the trees and this conversation of the Kenneth Walker versus Zach Charbonnet debate, and we certainly done that on a weekly basis. I think against good teams and good defenses, the Seahawks have shown a difficulty to close out games. I mean, just take this one at 1:30 AM Eastern East Coast time on Monday night. In the fourth quarter, it's a three and they're up 27 to 12 at this point. A three-and-out punt, then a fumble, then an interception, and then a three-and-out punt. And they just continue to leave the door open here for the Houston Texans. And the point being here is while this rushing scheme has allowed these running backs to have some rushing success, when opposing defenses know that, hey, situationally, the Seahawks want to run out the clock, they just want to grind out first downs running the football, I think that this offensive line can get straight up overpowered one versus one. And while it might not matter against like the New Orleans Saints, for example, I I think it does matter when you face a defense like the Texans when we get deep into the season, when we get into the playoffs. And you know, in that case, they then pivot on over to the passing game. And while Sam Darnold has been fantastic this season, that also offers you up to having mistakes like the interception, like the fumble in the end zone that turned into a touchdown, those types of things. So again, while I trust in this rushing scheme to have some rushing success, I do think like they still at times have an offensive line problem that keeps them from being, you know, the best of the best teams that we have seen in previous years because they can't close out games as efficiently.

Totally agree. They're they're missing another offensive lineman on the interior, and then probably one better wide receiver over Cooper Kupp to really make some noise. But they're they're a scary team in in in the playoffs still to me, and we're going to see some explosive runs out of Kenneth Walker. Did want to note Kenneth Walker was playing that first drive, and then they finally get down to the one-yard line. He was on the field for the last couple plays, and then he gets subbed out for Zach Charbonnet. So that was pretty unfortunate. Zach Charbonnet right now, just beating Kenneth Walker at the goal line. Um, and in the five games with Charbonnet, Kenneth Walker is now averaging 9.2 expected points here. So, yeah, at least with their ground game, there's a some level of a commitment to their 50-50 neutral pass rate.

Well, it truly does open up the passing game. Like DeMeco Ryans, even said this is the critical piece of their passing game, right? Is the running, rushing attack.

Yes. If you can build off of it, then the whole offense feels a little bit better. So, like to me, it's like there's a good scheme here going on. So even if they're missing a couple pieces talent-wise, it's still I think a functional offense. On the Kenneth Walker stuff, uh, two separate occasions where they could have given the birthday boy in Kenneth Walker last night a short-yardage rushing score. They just didn't do it. So, it's not going to happen all year long. It's that simple.

Yeah, he's he's a flex play right now. Both of them.

He also has matched the same number of explosive runs that he had in the entirety of last season already this season. Yeah. So, yeah, efficiency numbers are fantastic for Walker. I think PFF still has him as a top five running back on the season. So, it just comes down to preference. They want to keep him healthier and they want to split the workload. And they also drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round.

Okay, let's talk about their opponent, the Houston Texans, because like we said, if the draft happened today, they'd be picking in the top 10 overall. First, let's start with the injury towards the end of this game. Nico Collins leaves with a concussion. Um, it also had a massive drop earlier on a great extended play from CJ Stroud that could have gone for another 20, 30 yards on top of it. Uh, this team is already without Christian Kirk. How are they going to replace someone like Nico Collins, who has been, you know, their best offensive player when the offense has been at its best?

Braxton Berrios has been their answer. I can't believe it. He's playing so many snaps, and Braxton Berrios, even when he's not drawing the target, is hurting the team. There was one rep where it was a turnover-worthy play for Stroud throwing like a little out route to Dalton Schultz, but Braxton Berrios got got pressed so hard that he was not even able to be the clear-out guy. His whole role was to clear out space, and he was not functional enough to do that. So, there are wide receiver problems right now. I want Tank Dell and Noah Brown to play more. It can't be Hutchinson and Berrios. They just did not have enough juice here. So,

But that's what they did.

That's who they played last night.

I know. So that's where I'm stuck. It's like, to me, this would be if you're going to criticize DeMeco Ryans and Caserio, I think it's like borderline inexcusable to not play Brown and Dell. They both know football. They played a bunch at Iowa State. They were drafted really high. The character stuff has been very good for both of them on top of it. So I don't see why they can't be out there playing full-time snaps right now. So we'll see with Nico Collins, uh, on a little bit of a shorter week in concussion protocol. I'm guessing he's going to miss this next game, and but I don't feel confident that we can pick up any of these guys to start, even if Nico Collins is out.

And they just had their bye week. We always talk about post-bye rookie bumps, and you would have thought that the two guys, like you said, that played a ton of football, and especially together in Tank Dell and Noah Brown. And by the way, Dell had some moments last night in shorter snaps than both Xavier Hutchinson and Braxton Berrios. And we'll see if, you know, then this catapults him to that spot moving forward. That's my biggest concern with this team, where they dominated the Baltimore Ravens prior to the bye, and obviously this current version of the Ravens defense is much different than the Seattle one. And then coming out of the bye week, like we talked about, Mike McDonald, what he was able to do was to create a free rusher in key situations, and then knew exactly where CJ Stroud's eyes were going to go in terms of his hot to get rid of the football, and they had someone dropping or covering that area immediately, and it led to sacks. It led to a fumble that then turned into a Texans fumble. Anyways, uh, they just had all the answers. And it's not like Nick Caserio is putting enough out there already that makes us optimistic about it. And good defense is already shutting you down coming out of a bye week. So, like the CJ Stroud discourse, it it is a roller coaster at this point. To me, his rookie season was the best environment he has played in. And even if it did not have, you know, the highest expectations throughout the entire season, you can look back at it. The wide receivers we discussed, the offensive line, and the condensed formations and hitting the back foot and ripping these passes over the middle of the field to Nico Collins, outside breakers to Tank Dell, and even Noah Brown was playing at a high level. And ever since then, we've had injuries to wide receivers. We've had offensive lineman after offensive lineman after offensive lineman not picking up twists and stunts, and now I think we have questionable play calling on top of it.

Yeah. Uh, and this is also the first year that, you know, CJ has had the responsibility of, you know, pressures and, you know, protections and all that type of stuff. And so, I'm not saying he's, you know, behind the eight-ball with that, but he just didn't have those in his first two years, and now he does. So, it's, it, I think it gets better, but I can't hang my hat on where it is going to get better. Right now,

He's missed more throws this year. And this chart right here, just you can see Nico Collins on the bottom, just below average catch rate on the deep passes. And they need to hit on those because that's the only way that they're going to have explosives and actually turn first downs because they can't run the ball behind the offensive line. I think the pass protection has been very iffy. They got completely out-schemed last week by Seattle, who's very, very, very smart. But there was just like those deep play-action, uh, stuff that we were talking about where they had like seven people in protection. There was a a really bad play where they had Braxton Berrios chip a defensive end and then Dalton Schultz coming across the formation at tight end to go pick up that defensive end. And of course, that combination was not able to actually block the defensive end. And then meanwhile, the the right tackle completely lost. So they had seven guys in protection against four rushers, and two guys created pressure almost instantly. So that's like bad talent. That's bad scheme. And I think that CJ Stroud is spooked a little bit right now. And I, I understand why. It's been multiple years of this, and also very predictable. So this will get marginally better because at least they have some wide receivers in waiting, and then Nico Collins and Stroud could play better individually, but only so much better because you can't fix the offensive line halfway through the season.

Yeah. And I'm just trying to figure out what schematic advantage, you know, Nick Caserio is bringing to the table right now. Uh, they're only projected for 21 and a quarter points this week at home against the San Francisco 49ers, which is, uh, you know, a couple points ahead of their projected last week, but nowhere near what we're hoping for with like 23, 24, all this type of stuff. And like you said, it hurts that, uh, they can't run the football in third and short and fourth and short scenarios. They are wasting this defense, I think, is my big issue with it, because you're not going to have Danielle Hunter forever. All these young core pieces are going to get second contracts at some point. This is like their window to win with this defense that they have assembled, and they're just unable to do that at this moment. It's, it's just so fascinating to me that like we latch on to these, uh, you know, preseason expectations when it's so clear after all these years, like the C.J. Stroud rookie year, was a sick environment for him to have, and he was on fire at that moment.

Okay, just with the Texans running back situation, Dameon Pierce played a lot down the stretch, got a bunch of, uh, goal line opportunities, but that was because game script flipped in his direction in the first half. It was a pretty even split with Devin Singletary getting the first look. It's not a great spot for either one.

All right, let's talk about the other Monday Night Football game, and we'll begin with the Detroit Lions. Uh, Jahmyr Gibbs is freaking awesome. His stop-start ability is unfair, and in phone booths, makes professional athletes that get paid millions and millions and millions of dollars just to miss. It's insane stuff. In fact, I believe he was recorded with the fastest rushing touchdown in the NFL in over three years with that 70-plus yard. Um, there's really though nothing else to add here. Like, it is Amon-Ra St. Brown, it is Jahmyr Gibbs, and then depending on how many points and who gets involved, you'll have some David Montgomery stuff, you have some Sam LaPorta stuff, and then even more of a roller coaster, it is Jameson Williams stuff.

Yeah, Jamo caught a pass, but it's like offensive pass interference. He's just not getting the same targets. And same thing with Sam LaPorta. If you look at LaPorta this month, he's a tight end 21 in usage. Jameson is the wide receiver, 57 in usage. They're pretty run-heavy right now. And the defense, despite all the injuries, is playing fairly well. So, it's all Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The offensive line, I do think is probably the storyline because this thing could have gone sideways, uh, just looking at the offseason, uh, changes that they had to go through, but Taylor Decker, their day two guard, go back and watch the Jahmyr Gibbs runs, and you'll see he's heavily involved with that. Obviously, you get Penei Sewell on these big double teams and out in space as well. So the the scheme has been good. The offensive line could have been the thing that made the Lions kind of drop out of like Super Bowl contender into that next tier, and they're definitely in the Super Bowl contender, uh, list. I would probably trust the Lions the most in the NFC right now. Doesn't mean that their top-end outcome is the best, but the just trust level in terms of offensive and defensive coaching, the amount of talent and superstar talent, and then also just like very steady quarterback play with Jared Goff right now. I I trust this team the most in the NFC. Dan Campbell can spot a coordinator. You know, we discussed this with many other teams. They struggle to replace guys that go on to get head coaching jobs. Both his OC and DC went to go get head coaching jobs. Ben Johnson immediately comes in, and while they're dealing with injuries, especially at quarterback, while it can be a bit rocky early on, it certainly feels like he has settled the ship a little bit, and with a bunch of backups, and just to me, his energy brings like so much life into this team and into that defense. And then obviously on on offense, they are, I think, still the highest scoring team in the NFL other than the Dallas Cowboys at this moment, which is pretty freaking sweet. And they're going to their bye week right now, too.

Yep.

Just wanted to note because that offensive line, Jahmyr Gibbs, he's turned 80% of his short-yardage opportunities into first downs. That's the fourth best in the NFL. So, you don't think about Jahmyr, you think about Jahmyr Gibbs in the 80-yard touchdown department. In short yardage, he's a hell of a back, too. And that's a credit to the offensive line.

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Okay, let's talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, because Monday night was a bit of a fiasco in a number of ways. Uh, first, let's talk about the wide receiver injury. That is Mike Evans, who just came back from a hamstring issue. Now, I believe it was a double, both concussion and broken clavicle on top of it. Almost certainly he's going to miss the season. There has been some speculation that he could come back maybe towards the end, but, uh, Hayden, we've kind of already asked this question. Now though, who is his replacement moving forward in this team?

Amechi had a season-high in expected points, and Baker Mayfield missed him like four or five times. It was by far the worst Baker performance in terms of accuracy and just like level of panic. Um, so didn't love to see that. But Trey Palmer, Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, and Amechi all had season highs because they were chasing points and no Chris Godwin. So my favorite would be, I think Cade Otton right now is a low-end tight end one. And then if I'm picking between Sterling Shepard and Trey Palmer, I will go with Trey Palmer at this point. He had more, um, usage this last week. They threw him a screen where he hurdled a guy, then did a spin move, and then scored a touchdown on that. And there was that was an awesome play. Cade Otton did that, that fake that he's going to get the ball, uh, and then the right tackle absolutely drilled a poor defensive, uh, back into the earth. So that was a really fun play, but there was other opportunities like down the field where Trey Palmer on a big, uh, out route in the end zone, Baker just freaking missed him. So, there's some like explosiveness to Trey Palmer's games. Sterling Shepard, I think, is gonna have some fine enough starts. And all this said, we don't know how lengthy this Chris Godwin absence is. They're being quiet about it. I don't get the best kind of vibes from the situation. Um, so I do think A.J. Brown is going to be a wide receiver one the rest of the way. Otton's kind of kind of interesting. The backs are getting a little bit more involved, but I would go with Trey Palmer over Sterling Shepard. This is part of the reason why I love football so much is guys who play the same position. You could not have more different body types than Mike Evans and Trey Palmer. And yet Trey Palmer now is going to get the opportunity to fill in for the future Hall of Famer, potentially. And Mike Evans, what a cool story Trey Palmer is, by the way. I mean, adopted when he was a teenager by Bonky's family. He's what, 145 pounds. Basically, he breaks the mold of it all. I love when players break the mold in the NFL. And yeah, man. I mean, he even gained 10 pounds maybe to run at the NFL combine and ran super slow because of it. And now he's dropped it, and he looks super explosive on an NFL field. So, yeah, you can't be any more different than this. And he's the one though that I would definitely look to pick up.

On the Baker front, again, these island games, these spotlight games really focus in on that singular performance. To me, he was doing the same chaotic stuff as he has all season long in terms of dropping his eyes, trying to elongate plays, throwing into super tight windows. For the other six games this season, it has worked. Even if it's a no, no, no, yes type play. And then the one game in prime time, it didn't work. And you know, now, you know, there's some evaluations and messages on top of that. But he was just off last night, whereas the rest of the time he's been on. He still lives again in this chaos world. And it's why he's a joy to watch.

Yeah, in the first six weeks, there was definitely a couple reps where it could have been interceptions, and they turned into post-route touchdowns to A.J. Brown and and others. And this last week, they were just turned into disasters, and his he just felt more sporadic. And it was really just, to me, like the accuracy. Like, usually Baker's like fairly accurate. This one was like the worst accuracy of the week. So there was many, many possible touchdowns that just didn't even get hands on it. There was one where A.J. Brown had a kind of a little double move and was like kind of almost walking backwards waiting for the ball, and Baker was just like hitching, hitching, hitching, and then finally threw it. The ball was short. By that time, the safety and the corner that A.J. Brown just blew by were able to catch up. That would have been a touchdown the first six weeks, and it just wasn't today. So, both ends of the spectrum, it's going to even out. Baker Mayfield over the last two and a half years or whatever has been about the quarterback seven to quarterback 16, depending kind of on the month. He's going to own some heaters. He's going to have some really bad games, and you just got to kind of have to live with the consequences because you can throw the ball into into danger. But a lot of that stuff turns out to be fairly efficient over a bigger sample.

And if we look ahead to week eight, they're projected for 25 and a half points on the road against the New Orleans Saints. So, it's just an immediate bounce-back spot for all of this. I saw in one of the charts that you posted on Twitter that, you know, short-yardage rushing success that Rachaad White is number one, which I also think, uh, speaks to one his performance, but also the offensive line on top of it, as it's gotten healthier as the season has gone along. Obviously, Bucky Irving has not been placed on IR still, and so we haven't gotten any reporting, I think, on that at all. You would like to think that his return is this week or next week, but again, we've got no updates on that.

Yeah, I'm guessing it's going to be over the next two weeks, just based off of the fact that he didn't go on IR, but yeah, pretty remarkable. That's 94% success rate on short-yardage carries for Rachaad White. 94%. That's that's about the average, just kind of eyeballing it, is about 60%. 94. Crazy.

Let's talk about Sunday Night Football, because we were doing our show during then. Thank you all for tuning in, the instant reactions episode every single week. Let's lead off with the winners, that is the San Francisco 49ers. Um, the only predictable thing about their fantasy points is Christian McCaffrey on a weekly basis, and more so maybe moving forward. Hayden, now not only wide receiver one Christian McCaffrey, but maybe running back one Christian McCaffrey. I mean, George Kittle did not record a catch against the Falcons, but according to Next Gen Stats, when he was on the field in this game, CMC had 28 carries, 151 yards, two scores, an average of 1.44 yards before contact. When he was off the field, six carries, 12 yards, negative -2 yards before contact per attempt. Uh, this might be the skeleton key for CMC to not only sustain, you know, top two running back scoring, but be up there for the rest of the way.

Just remains a total outlier in terms of the the usage. The calf has never looked healthier in his entire life. And the Kittle stuff, the the numbers, that's not even just like this this last game. Like you look at the last five years, it's just always like that with George Kittle. So, um, I think linebackers are like scared to go fit the run because they know that Kittle can also work right behind him. There's so much more misdirection that they can do with Kittle. Kittle got open a couple times, and the ball just like did not end up going to him. And then on top of this, just something to keep in mind, Falcons defense, they throw so much at you, and they have a really good quarterback one, and then Jessie Bates kind of roaming over the middle of the field. They're also lighting the shorts up front, their edge rushers, and just defensive tackles. And Kittle got on the mic and said, "Go blame Shanahan for my lack of production. The goal was to run the ball 40 times in this one." And that makes sense to me. And the fact that the 49ers are saying that when their run-blocking offensive line is is bottom 10 certainly in the league, just shows you that the way that I think a lot of offenses are going to face the Falcons is try to run it up the middle. Make them prove that they can stop that, and then kind of work the play-action game off of it. Now that the Falcons have some schematic advantages, with,

Dare I say this team needs Ricky Pearsall back? Um, I understand that, uh, you know, he's not a quote-unquote primary wide receiver out there. I think he was leading the league or close to it in, uh, yards per game before he left. Uh, I mean, it's just been a rolodex ever since he's been out. I mean, you know, in terms of wide receivers, Jauan Jennings had the most with four for 31. I would also say Jauan Jennings has had some mistakes and not look like the veteran presence that he did last season on top of this. And then, you know, Kendrick Bourne, just two for 14 after being amazing the week before. So, it's tough to bank on any of these guys on a weekly basis right now. But, you know, with that said, 49ers are still absolutely rolling. Uh, but are only projected for 20 and a quarter points this week against this Texans team on the road.

That makes sense. One of the best defenses, uh, in the league, and I just don't trust that their offensive line is going to be able to to block that, um, defensive line in Houston. Sounds like Brock Purdy is going to miss another game, and it could even be another week after that. You never know. And then Ricky Pearsall, it's the same exact injury, more or less, as the Brock Bowers one. So they're not trying to rush him back. And they've won enough games now, and their schedule's so, uh, weak, that they can probably kind of take the kind of conservative approach. And then also, just wanted to quickly shout out in that game, their defense, missing two All-Pros, was completely fired up. And this just shows you, like, Saleh knows how to game plan. Their team's super, super, like, just, I don't even want to say that they're deep, but all those guys just showed up positively. Just all jacked up. Yeah. Just a professional group over there.

Yeah. Bryce Huff, you know, who was good with the Jets and then not even active for the Eagles last year, comes in, and I think their defense would be like a level below if he, you know, wasn't on the field as a designated pass rusher in a lot of these situations. And unfortunately, he got banged up at the end of this one. So, we'll see what his activeness is like moving forward.

Okay, let's talk about the Atlanta Falcons, because they are one of the more frustrating teams, I think, across the league. Uh, and it, to me, goes to their play calling and to their quarterback. Michael Penix at home this season is averaging 287 passing yards per game, 67% completion rate, 8.61 yards per attempt with five total touchdowns versus one turnover. And then you look at him on the road, 183 passing yards per game, so 100-plus less, 54.7% completion rate, so 13% less. 5.77 yards per attempt, which is nearly three yards less. And then one touchdown versus three turnovers. So that's like in a dome versus on the road, all this type of stuff and storylines and narratives we can paint. But, uh, the number one thing is, it's just hasn't been good enough in terms of consistency.

No. And I think he's very limited as a quarterback. We've talked about just his mechanics and how much he opens up his his hips and his feet. And I looked at this, he's got the lowest completion percentage in the league when he's been moved off of his spot. He completes 23% of his passes when he's moved off his spot. And on top of that, he doesn't add anything as a scrambler. There was a couple plays to Darnell Mooney, who looked fantastic in this one. Darnell Mooney, it took a a while now for in the middle of October, but he looked like the player that he was last year. Some double moves, some big out routes, and Penix would either make him have to dive for a pass or completely sail the ball. So, I think his accuracy is bad. He doesn't add anything outside of structure. He doesn't throw the ball over the middle. So, there's like a very, like, finite way that you can kind of play with Michael Penix as the quarterback. And like, pre-draft, I gave him a round two grade and kind of a low-end starter, uh, at that. And I haven't seen anything to kind of move me off of that. And this offense is just not throwing the ball over the middle. And if they're not getting the huge explosives from Bijan Robinson or peppering Drake London on these out routes and fades and kind of zone coverage looks, uh, then the offense is is pretty stuck. And I think I don't really think it's an offensive play caller issue. I I think this is just working within the structure of of the quarterback, kind of how like the Dolphins had to do with with Tua, like totally different reasons why, but structurally, like you're just limited in what you can even offer, uh, to the playbook.

Yeah. I mean, his stuff at Washington was so spread out and so downfield, and you had three at the very minimum NFL-caliber wide receivers, uh, Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja'Lynn Polk, and it was super successful. And then, and also offensive linemen that were drafted in the league, too.

Yep. You know,

Real ones. And now you're in the league, and you see it's such a big difference that when his shoulder, front shoulder stays forward, and he's firing these passes, versus anytime, like you said, moved off his spot or like kind of getting squared to it, the ball just dies. He's also just not very athletic in terms of his lateral moves. Again, Next Gen Stats pointed this out. Michael Penix did not complete a single one of his nine passes under pressure in this game against the 49ers. The most such passes, pass attempts in a game without a completion by any quarterback since 2023, and that was Sam Howell with 11. So we always talk about with these passing offenses that, hey, when it's clean and you can execute on your back foot and hit it, that is like the most translatable thing. But like the real quarterbacks separate themselves when you are under pressure, when you do have to win off-script. Yeah.

And Penix just hasn't proven that he is one of those guys right now. I didn't know, uh, that metric, but when I was, I was going to bring this up. There were times where pressure was coming, and he would be retreating and throwing the ball instead of like standing tall. Like, you watch Jared Goff, who at times in his career was also skittish under pressure, but now stands there, going to take a huge shot. And that's what makes these downfield reps actually work. If he's not going to be willing to take that shot, then you're not going to have a shot to complete some of these passes. Um, I have some splits for you. So Drake London without Darnell Mooney, 19.6 expected points. With Darnell Mooney, 8.8. So we're cutting this completely in half. We're talking about elite wide receiver one stuff versus wide receiver three material. Is that only because Darnell Mooney's in the mix? Is that just kind of variance? Which I think it largely is variance. But Darnell Mooney is a real player, and he looks super healthy this last this last game versus early on, uh, when, right, he got the wide receiver coach fired. Um, what, how should we handle this? Because they don't pass the ball that much. We don't love the quarterback play. So, I think Drake London's still a wide receiver one, but at one point I thought maybe he can be a top five wide receiver, and right now the splits are kind of making me nervous.

I don't think I have an answer for you. It's just a confusing team at this moment. And that's despite, you know, Bijan Robinson, arguably the most fun running back to watch in the league other than, you know, Jonathan Taylor and Jahmyr Gibbs and Christian McCaffrey. I mean, just the way he moves is different. It is different out there. And over the, you know, the last four games, he's still the running back four with, Hayden, 25.7 points per game. There are four running backs, four of them over the last four weeks, that are averaging over 25 points per contest. Those are just difference makers in your fantasy leagues and separating you versus your competition every single week.

Yeah, it's there. I had to create a different category on my chart because I got the dogs, which like Javonte Williams, Cam Akers, and then I had like the mega dogs, Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan. They're in another tier. If you don't have one of those guys right now, you are losing your leagues. Like, it's as simple as that.

We've got a couple more teams here in the top 10. Let's talk about the Philadelphia Eagles, because, uh, you know, I had a tweet that even Kurt Warner enjoyed watching, and then as soon as the Eagles played well on Sunday, Eagles fans got upset with me that I was not tweeting about them. Hayden, it's because you and I, you know, have games that we are assigned, and then so we can talk about them. I'm only going to talk about games that I watch in full, and I got to go back and watch this Eagles game in full, and it was a delight to watch. And what I loved, and friend Deffy pointed this out, and Ben Solak pointed this out, is that the Eagles had eight total dropbacks under center prior to week seven. But then, you know, third quarter, eight minutes left. DeVonta Smith apparently requested this play on the sideline that, you know, again, under center, safety drives on A.J. Brown on this over route over the middle of the field. So Jalen Hurts drops back, perfectly thrown deep ball to DeVonta Smith for a 79-yard touchdown in a clean, clean pocket. Then a couple series later, next time, deep safety, this is 30 yards back. 30 yards back to prevent that downfield shot, which opens up a cavern of space over the middle of the field for a 19-yard pickup on first and 10. Then again, third play here, safety is 35 yards back this time, which again opens up a cavern of space over the middle of the field. 21-yard gain, and the next play is the A.J. Brown touchdown. So, while, you know, we've had questions about Jalen Hurts, and definitely even more questions about Kevin Patullo and what he's bringing to this team, to me, this is the first time I can say that he has gone back and looked at this team's own tendencies and said, "Okay, how can we make this our advantage? How can we turn this into our advantage versus an opponent?" And that's what they did. And those three plays basically unlocked this entire game and a win, and hopefully the offense moving forward, because those are all under center deep play-action passes.

The accuracy bounced back. So he was running really hot last year, and then Jalen

Herz was running really bad early in the season, and then obviously you had the three explosives down the field. I really like them doing the under center play action stuff because, to me, that's just making that the play action look just way, way cleaner for Jaylen Herz. So, I, I thought they were too predictable. Both, like, we're, we're in the gun versus under center. It's just too, too obvious, and they kind of fixed that here.

I also want to mention, I just think the Eagles should be a pass-first team. I would just live and die by it because they just can't run the ball right now. Like, efficiency, both in success rate and explosiveness and EPA per carry, it's middle of the pack, and it's below average in yards before contact. I think that Saquon Barkley is not creating as many, uh, forced missed tackles this year either, but really, he's added nowhere to run, and now you've got another injury with Cam Jurgens. Just throw the ball downfield, and you're going to have some punts, you're going to have some interceptions, but man, like, you only need, you mentioned three of them. Three big plays through the air is all you need. You tell me if they drop back 35 times in a game, they're not going to hit three, five, six, seven of those. That's just how I would approach this thing. I think that they have to kind of restructure how the Eagles wanted to play and how they won their Super Bowl. And I would make it look like you're going to run the ball and then just, like, all of a sudden pass more and more and more and more and more. And then also, eventually, you can start getting Jaylen Herz involved in the ground game a little bit. They didn't have to do it in this one. Uh, but it was refreshing to see the under center deep play action stuff work.

Now, with all that said, there's still some areas to improve. Okay, you mentioned the running game, and that's definitely a factor here. Daniel Griffith posted this on Twitter: "Which teams go three and out the most in the NFL?" It's the Philadelphia Eagles by a pretty good margin. They go three and out on 36% of their drives at this moment. Uh, that is shocking to see, and I think that goes specifically to the rushing attack that you were talking about.

Yes. Uh, again, this team is so good when they are good. Like, they have the superstars to be good all the time. And so that's why it's the most frustrating when, you know, Devonte Smith, AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, Jaylen Herz, all can't get going at one point. Again, we say this about other teams. I do feel like the best Eagles football could be ahead of them, but I still am not sure if it's going to reach the levels that it did last year.

I was assigned this game, and I had the, the three and outs early on, and here was what happened: Run, pass, AJ Brown, false start, punt. Pass the ball, negative six-yard run. Third and 14, it's a pass play. You punt it. First, first down on the next one. It's a run play. It's a holding. You run it again. Now it's a sack. Now it's a third and 20. Just under center, whatever BS throw. Uh, and you punt the ball there. So, to me, it's penalties, which there's been a lot of them. And then also, all the runs, they're not going anywhere. And then all of a sudden, you have Jaylen Herz in third and 14 situations, which is just not his MO. And that's, that's when he starts kind of throwing the ball away and rolling out and stuff. So, to me, just get under center, whip a huge first and 10 play action play over the top, and that's how I would, uh, do it if I was calling plays.

Also, Hayden, you need to continue to say that Devonte Smith over about the last year has just been flat-out outscoring.

Yeah. AJ Brown. Yeah, it's, it's pretty crazy, but he's, he's so efficient down the field that it's been working, and he just gets the easier matchups, and he's a little bit more targeted in zone coverage as well. So, yeah, he's just been straight up better. Did, did want to flag this. So, we, we kind of just glossed over the Saquon Barkley stuff this month. He's a running back 23 on running back 25 usage. If you just look at all of the Eagles running backs, uh, this month, they're 31st in team usage of running backs. So, he's not going to get the goal line carries because of the tush push and the Dallas Goddard stuff. They don't throw the ball to the running backs very often. So, he's kind of caught right now. So, the offensive line has to get healthier slash better. Uh, or just have to run really pure. But, right now, like, I've been ranking as like running back six, seven, eight, nine. I think there's going to be some matchups like once we come out of the bye and stuff that it would not be unfair to rank Saquon Barkley heading into that week as a running back 14, 15, 16. I also think part of it is short yardage scores because we know that he's not getting the long runs this year. On top of it, the Eagles are 29th in terms of red zone drives. I should say drives that reach the red zone this season at 2.4. Obviously, once they get there, they are insanely efficient. They are by far and away the best red zone touchdown scoring team with 82% success rate in those, but again, they are 29th. So the long touchdown that they got last week is really needed.

In comparison to the long touchdowns that we got last year with Saquon Barkley running them and also in the year. But we talk about the explosive plays being touchdowns. He's not going to be involved in that, the downfield shots. And then at the goal line, you get all the tush push stuff. So he, he has to score 10-yard plus touchdowns to to really matter. That's, that's difficult to do when you're talking about second stringers at center, at guard, and the tackles haven't been playing as well as they were when they were All-Pro level guys as well. So, yeah, I think he, I'm, I'm fairly nervous about him. Like, definitely versus cost. Like, there's just no way he's going to ever match the cost. I mean, take him second overall. But, I, I'm even selling that he can be like a top five running back the rest of the season. I think he's going to be more on that RB12 border. I don't think either of us had him in our top 12 rest of the season last week or not.

Yeah. No. Yeah. He was like 20th or something like that.

Yeah. And on defense, Jaylen Carter tilts games, you know, and Jaylen Carter didn't play in week one, and then Jaylen Carter didn't play in the Giants loss. Uh, he should play in the Giants game that they have this week. And it's, it's just really that simple. I mean, the hit that he had on Carson Wentz that flattened him that led to an interception was brutal.

Tough, brutal stuff. Tough to play quarterback. And also how he's, you know, he's calling teams right now. He's going to acquire somebody. And maybe it's going to be a quarterback, too. Maybe.

Brought back Brandon Graham off the street. Yeah. Call him first, but then also start calling, you know, other teams to to get some players.

Okay, let's talk about the Denver Broncos because they're a confusing organization as well. Uh, I always use the phrase with them, the Goldilocks zone when talking about their passing attack because it's still a problem in terms of the Broncos' movement to stationary drop-back passing game. And then when the pure drop-back progression passing game isn't working, then Sean Payton, like, pulls in more of the play-calling responsibility to then get him on the move, which cuts the field in half, or just to call these screens or escort screens to the flats or to bluff them to the second level and all this stuff. And again, that can kind of minimize your options on any given drop back. If the defense covers it up, then you're kind of screwed in that area. So, uh, what did you watch? What did you see when you went back and looked at this Broncos team?

Exactly what you saw and what Brenley was saying in the recap show. There's a lot of plays where you have one answer largely for for Bo Nix, and that's tough to play quarterback that way. And it's a chicken or the egg situation. Obviously, Sean Payton knows everything. So, he just doesn't trust Bo Nix to operate there when they absolutely had to. They kept throwing big dig routes and post routes and all that type of stuff, big out routes. And Bo Nix has the arm talent to to to make those throws, but there's just so many just series where it's just like underneath, underneath BS stuff. Everyone's a joker, and it, it just doesn't feel like you're actually playing like real sustainable football in a way that is ever going to matter once you get to the playoffs.

And look, I'm not comparing Bo Nix to Drew Brees, but that definitely wasn't the case in Drew Brees's offense. Like, there were a couple of those plays for sure that, uh, Sean Payton would design, but, you know, we had Drew Brees reading the entire field. Again, definitely not putting Bo Nix in that category. Albeit, Sean Payton kind of did the summer when everybody talked to scoops in these media properties and said, "We've got a guy. We've got a dude here." Well,

I do think it's a chicken and egg thing where I, I do believe in the opening parts of the season, they did try this pure drop-back stuff with this great defense and great offensive line, and Bo Nix was just air mailing these passes down the field and super inaccurate. And so again, I think if that didn't happen, then we would have more of a complex operation here. Uh, but this is where we're at right now.

Troy Franklin right now has been like the least efficient wide receiver aside from Jerry Judy in like the whole league. And he, he's one of the guys that gets targeted a bunch. Same thing with with Marvin Mims. So, yeah, it's just one of these situations where the first read to to Courtland Sutton on these big dig routes and post routes and back-shoulder fades, that's super efficient. Everything else in the pass game largely isn't. So, they've got to come up with a with a secondary answer because when you get to the playoffs, you're getting close to it. If, if the other team has a good quarterback one or just can scheme Courtland Sutton out of out of it, then what?

I understood last year having a bunch of these Marvin Mims screens and, you know, other players because you had no running game. I do think if they actually tried successfully the running game more often and leaned into it more often, then it would really help them. And yeah, they kind of just went away from JK Dobbins. Obviously, you're down the scoreboard in a massive way, but, uh, yeah, I think more Dobbins and more Harvey is a big deal too, because Harvey's numbers between the tackles this season are really, really, really good stuff. Let's have a bit of an AFC West theme here. Let's also talk about the LA Chargers.

We discussed it, and I thought you and Jacob did an awesome job conversing on Irv Smith Jr. on the waiver show. Uh, you calling the Chargers right now an air raid team is so perfect because, look, we like to evaluate individual players and talk about their strengths and weaknesses. Let's say Irv Smith Jr. played for, I don't know, the Houston Texans. To me, it wouldn't be working as well as with this team, right? Because they run a ton of 11 personnel. They're top five in that rate. But that tight end is attached to the formation constantly and needs to block. But on the Chargers, he doesn't have to. They're just spraying the football out. They're spreading the formation out, and they're throwing the football at a super high rate. And he's an unbelievable watch at this moment.

Yeah, he's so much fun. I think this is closer to the Darren Waller side of things, and we've talked about this. There's been a lot of tight ends built like,

A lot of them. Irv Smith Jr. and the hit rate's about what, one in 10. And I do think Irv Smith Jr. starting to look like the outlier there in a positive way. It's just a bunch of like 2x2 sets. It looks like it just spread them out, and then you have Keenan Allen and Smith Jr. in the slot. And then you have Lad McConkey and Quentin Johnson, and all four of those guys, even though they play inside and outside, could also work downfield. Like Keenan Allen's been effective as an intermediate player. Lad McConkey can do everything as well. And then Smith Jr.'s not this within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage player at tight end either. And on top of that,

Downfield shots, a different type of tight end than all these others that are frequently discussed across the league.

Yep. It's not check and release like, uh, Chig Okonkwo stuff. It's like, no, we're running the post. We're running these big wheel routes to these Cover 2 hole shots, and then Justin Herbert is willing to make those throws. And not only willing, puts it on the damn money more times than not. So, this team's fourth still in neutral pass rate this month. They've been like that the entire season. Um, Kamari Vidal is still playing a bunch, but we're just going to have, I think, all four of these guys trading off weeks. So, like Quentin Johnson doesn't get home in this one. Lad McConkey and Keenan Allen, Smith Jr. play well. Uh, the defense is not nearly as good as it was this last year. Khalil Mack is still getting, um, fully back incorporated to the defense there, but it's just a very unique offense. There's not that many offenses in the NFL that even look like what the Chargers are doing. Kind of feels almost like a version of the Bengals the the last couple years too, where it just like feels like everything's so spread out, they can attack you anywhere, and you have to have the right quarterback to kind of do it. And I don't know, the Smith Jr. stuff, his yards after the catch ability is is pretty wild.

I'm just looking at, I know he's not as small as these guys, but super athletic tight ends. Trey Burton was one. Doran Dickerson is that before your time? Do you remember Doran?

Dickerson? No, I haven't even seen him in my spreadsheets. My guy, Stephen Anderson coming out of Cal. Obviously, you had Evan Engram at 234 pounds coming out of Miss, and was a first-round pick on top of it. Jordan Reed was more of the short to intermediate type player on top of that, too. I mean, keep going. Again, this is truly the type of player that we as a fantasy football industry fall in love with immediately. And it's sometimes like, Darius Slayton is always, always the name that I come up with. Uh, but Smith Jr.'s on a on a freaking heater. Okay.

Positive there. I do have some negatives because I think it's worth bringing them up for the Chargers. Uh, according to our buddy Rich Reebar, uh, the great defense that we felt with Jesse Minter over the opening part of the season, uh, has kind of evaporated. Right now, the Chargers are 31st in defensive success rate over the last four weeks after a league-best 67.7% success rate over the opening three weeks. To me, that's just a great indication of how unsticky defenses can be even, like, inside the same season versus not even talking about season after season. And a big part of it too is losing Khalil Mack.

Yeah, losing Khalil Mack, losing a really strong defensive tackle, and then also running hot the previous year. And just remember, two, two off-seasons ago, they had one of the worst cap situations in the league. And then they were trading players like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, uh, because they just needed to clear cap space and get draft picks. That's how far away they were in their rebuild. So they obviously hit on Joe Alt and Lad McConkey in the draft. Uh, but this year, uh, they just did not add enough talent on the defensive side of the ball to kind of make up for just the wonkiness year-over-year. So, I think it'll get better when Khalil Mack is out there, but they, they have some, some, they have some good players for, for sure, but they're still missing another edge rusher, another defensive tackle, uh, another linebacker, um, that type of stuff to to kind of close the gap, but I think they'll play better, um, than they have as well. The Colts ate them alive. One more negative note right now, and it's shocking for how many points they score, the Chargers are 31st in red zone touchdown success rate, uh, only ahead of the Las Vegas Raiders at 41.67% once they get down to that area. Now, they do get there quite a bit. They're 11th highest with 3.4, uh, red zone drives per game, but I'm not sure if, well, let me reset that. I think that would be easier to change if Austin Ekeler and Joshua Palmer was a part of this team because we know how effective he was in the low red in terms of catching passes and obviously breaking tackles to get into the end zone. And now with Kamari Vidal, you really have to rely on Justin Herbert's arm to convert all the time in that red zone.

My spreadsheets agree. You can see Lad McConkey and Keenan Allen as positive touchdown regression candidates because their red zone usage has not translated to enough touchdowns, which is already saying something because Keenan's already got four of them. Uh, but there's, there's more meat on the bone. Kansas City Chiefs, they are at their best. They're four and three. They were totally touring with the Raiders in week seven. Uh, there's a few individuals we can talk about here. Uh, I guess we can first discuss Rashee Rice, who really wasn't used as like a full wide receiver in this game, but already showed how much of an impact he's going to make near the goal line in the red zone, and then he had a couple yards after catch moments here. That to me just makes me continue to be optimistic about the rest of season four.

The Chiefs used a five-wide receiver rotation, uh, when the game was, you know, not completely over. That was Xavier Worthy at about 80% of the snaps, and then Rashee Rice was only out there for like about half of them, but every single time he was on the field, he got the ball. So there was even one play that would have been a touchdown if not for a false start. That was also going to be one of these gimmicky at the six-yard line touchdowns, little flick pass to Rashee Rice. So they were getting him in that way. They throw him a back, uh, shoulder fade as well. And then you're going to get the yards after the catch opportunities. It's like little shallow crosses, slant routes, uh, crossers, that type of stuff, uh, in addition to the little flick stuff that they add to the offense. So, luckily, it's going to be a rotation at at wide receiver. They kind of trust all their guys right now. But last week, it was an 82% neutral pass rate. 82%. That is insane. League average around 51%. The Chiefs, which are always at the very top here, are usually around 60. Now, it's a one-week sample size, but if they can just fully trust what they have in terms of their wide receiver depth and they're going to pass that much, the Patrick Mahomes numbers are going to be silly. Rashee Rice's numbers are going to be silly. And I can see them winning the Super Bowl and Mahomes winning the regular season MVP because no quarterbacks like truly stepped up. This team, the passing yardage numbers the rest of the season, it's going to be light years ahead of anybody else in the league.

I do think the neutral pass rate one, not many neutral situations in that game that they totally dominated.

Uh, and two, we discussed it heading into it that the Raiders run Cover 3, Cover 1 at about a 49-plus percent rate. So, if Patrick Mahomes knows what coverage you're going to be in, then he just knows where to go with the football. And also, a lot of their passes were kind of running plays.

Yep. The fantasy community is getting really excited for Isiah Pacheco. And again, he's one of these types of players that people can get excited about. When I watched him, it was very much the Jerick McKinnon, Dexter McCluster, even Kadarius Toney like role where it was jet sweeps, motions, and even wide receiver screen stuff. On the box score, it does show that he got 14 carries. The vast majority of those were in the fourth quarter when the team had totally blown the Raiders out of the park, and backups were in across the board. So, um, I think Isiah Pacheco is going to be a better thought and maybe real-life element of this football team than he is going to be a fantasy asset this season. The two ways that this can break his way are one, the Chiefs average 30-plus points the rest of the way, which I think is on the table. And that's when Derrick McKinnon was like a PPR RB3 was when the Chiefs were that good on offense. And I think the Chiefs have a chance to be that good. And then this last week, uh, Kareem Hunt gets rolled up on blocking for Rashee Rice, and he doesn't play in the back half of the game. So if, if that ankle injury is either worse than they expect or he picks up another injury, or they just say, "Hey, it's just going to be Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice the rest of the way," then he's got a chance. But he's, he's not going to have the normal running back role. He played one year running back in college. So you think the Super Bowl champs team of the last, like a dynasty team's just going to trust, like a Tyrone Tracy type of player throughout the playoffs? You're out of your mind. So I think he's got a chance to be PPR viable during by weeks, but I think that's kind of where we're at with him. You know, I would even say the Jerick stuff would be optimistic for him because that was a whole bunch of, you know, pure running back snaps. Uh, I would like to look it up after this, but I'm sure he had a bunch of like wide receiver snaps so far this season, and he's the one doing again the Kadarius Toney type thing and doing a whole bunch of win sprints across the field.

I will say the Chiefs right now this month, second in running back usage. They chop it up three ways. But if Kareem Hunt misses some time, I'm going to have a pretty aggressive ranking for Isiah Pacheco, too, who, who's looked a little bit better this month. Yeah. So, there's he's one of these players which the advanced rate's going to be bad, but could Isiah Pacheco be the RB 25 the rest of the way? I, I think that's totally possible with how good the Chiefs' offense is. We've all sent money to a friend or a group after dinner, bowling, maybe a birthday party, an event that you forgot to bring a gift to. And it can be difficult with other ones, but not Cash App. With Cash App, you can spend, save, and live your life knowing that your money is right where you left it with advanced built-in security protections that you count on and help when you need it. Spend with peace of mind today and order a Cash App card in the app or at cash.app/card. For a limited time only, new Cash App customers can use our exclusive code to earn additional cash for real. Just download Cash App, use our exclusive referral code, secure 10 in your profile, send $5 to a friend within 14 days, and you'll get $10 dropped right into your account. Terms apply. That's money. That is Cash App. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App's bank partners. Prepaid debit card issued by Sutton Bank, member FDIC. Instant discounts provided by Cash App, a Block Inc. brand. Visit cash.app.app/legal/mpodcast for full disclosures. All right, time to go in alphabetical order. Before we do that though, the best way to support us is to support Underdog, the Dog app. We are now in 41 of 50 states. Again, a couple years ago that was not the case. Texas, California, I'm looking at you. If you reside in one of these beautiful, beautiful locations, please go and play on Underdog. Use promo code THE SHOW. Click the link in the description down below. If you play $5 the first time, we'll throw you a hundred bucks in your direction of bonus cash. So, we have drafts every week. NBA is kicking off. Uh, hockey is a thing in the US as well. Uh, so obviously you have NFL and Pick 'em and prediction markets for some of you. So, go and play on Underdog and use promo code THE SHOW. Let's go in alphabetical order. Starting off with the Arizona Cardinals. Positives here. This week, a 50% third down conversion rate, which if you look in totality of the entire season, that would rank number one. You know, the highest for the entire year is at 49%. Kyler Murray is the quarterback. To me, those two things are linked based on, you know, the throws that we saw him make down the field, outside the numbers, getting his wide receiver chances, and Timmy Hayden, most importantly, you know, your best player in Trey McBride opportunities in the red zone, and he now has three touchdowns over the last, what, two games here, which you're going to hope you're reset.

Just looking at the last month, Trey McBride has more expected half PPR points than any wide receiver. Any wide receiver, Jamar Chase, any of them, more expected points than any of them. He is by himself right now as terms of an elite tight end in terms of the potential. There's been some other tight ends that are matching him in in fantasy points like Jake Ferguson, for example, but the usage, it's not even close. And I, we talked about this, the less they can run the ball, the worse their defense looks, the more they're going to have to throw the ball, um, in second halves, and then, uh, Marvin Harrison's kind of stalled out. Uh, and yeah, I think there's probably been a benefit that Kyler Murray or Kyler Murray has been out there as well, but they're going to go back to Kyler Murray, it sounds like. So, yeah, I just feel really good about the Trey McBride stuff. I think like that's the most important takeaway. And I think that it's not just the quarterback stuff. I think that there's just like structural reasons why he's getting the ball even more. And the fact that he's catching all the touchdown opportunities is highly refreshing.

They're going into their bye week. Like you said, the expectation is they go back to Kyler Murray. They are not making the playoffs this year. It is going to be a lost season.

For them. Uh, Hayden, over the last two games, that is 13 targets, 10 receptions, 74, and two scores for Trey McBride.

One Kyler Murray start. The one before that, it was 11 targets, eight receptions, 72, and one touchdown. Prior to that, when we got Kyler Murray, it really wasn't close in that regard. So, I hear you that Trey McBride is Trey McBride, but I disagree in that I think Kyler Murray means more and helps Trey McBride score higher. Like, I, I would just stick with Kyler if the goal here is to, you know, have a better offense.

I don't disagree. I think it's probably about the same in terms of who's better or not. I think Kyler's probably a little bit better, but you get there in different ways, and it could be kind of frustrating. You have to like live with the highs and lows with with Kyler Murray. So,

I guess for me, he just fits what Drew Petzing wants to do in this styling of an offense more so than I mean, I've always said like the quarterback and OC stuff just have never felt on the same page in terms of rhythm and being in sync.

Yep. Yep. And looking at it next year, if the Cardinals do trade Kyler Murray ahead of his age 29 season, they would save $35 million against the cap. It only requires $17 or $18 million in dead money. So, very, very tradable contract in the modern NFL era. And if they want to stick with the coaching staff and just try to find a different quarterback, Kyler Murray would generate like a lot of, you know, return if they wanted to do that. And there's nothing about the contract that would prevent that. So they have some like serious decisions to make. Is it the coaching staff or is it the quarterback? Which ones do they want to stick with? Or is it neither of them? You trade Kyler Murray, uh, you're going to have a top 10 pick, and then you get a new coaching staff all at once. But decisions are going to have to be made over the next couple months here. And I just don't think this team has enough talent yet. Uh, and when these coaches got in there, they were so far behind on both sides of the ball, offensive line, wide receivers, and defense, that it was, I thought it was an impossible rebuild for them. So, um, but they haven't also played like all that great. Baltimore Ravens, they're coming out of the bye week. It's a whole new season. They are one and five at this point, picking in the top 10, heck, even top five at this moment. What do you want to see with this hopefully new look Ravens team, which by the way, I believe they are eight and a half point home favorites right now over the Chicago Bears here in week eight.

He did not practice on Monday, but it's not a like technical practice that they have to actually, um, showcase with with the practice reports, and I'm guessing they're just resting him. The betting markets right now are suggesting that he's going to play, and all along, this is the game he's going to play. I'm assuming he's playing. I would like to see some more Isaiah Likely. Remember him? And then also Zay Flowers. He was in the first two weeks. His like market share of of production was extremely, extremely high up. It's gone away recently, but if they're going to go to a two-tight end set, it's just going to be Zay Flowers and, um, a defense that's maybe not as quite as good as we thought it was going to be before the season. I do think there's a pathway for Zay Flowers to really have a great second half of the season, probably to score the most fantasy points in one half of a season of his, uh, young NFL career.

I would like to see Derrick Henry too, in neutral and positive game script. He's gotten phased out in many of these occasions. I think that he could finish as a top, and this sounds like low expectations, but guess what? It's been so far has been low results, uh, top 10 running back the rest of the way. They're going to be favored in a whole bunch of contests. Now, I mentioned eight and a half, that was yesterday. That has dropped down to six and a half. I do wonder if just because of the missed practice yesterday, and people are thinking, hey, this is, you know, if he does, if Lamar Jackson does miss, this is an incredible value that I'm getting on it. Uh, yeah, we talked about the top of the season, the first three games, Zay Flowers was unreal in terms of his usage. And then in games where the Ravens are favored and they're winning, Derrick Henry is an unbelievable asset. And I would be low-key very excited about both those guys having them the rest of the way, despite it being kind of a nightmare since about week four.

The short yardage success rate where Rachaad White was at 94%. The worst is Derrick Henry at 40%. So that's minimum 11 carries with three or fewer yards to go. He's only picked up 40% of those for first downs. So the offensive line has not played as well. Not having Lamar Jackson as a threat on the zone read stuff in those situations has hurt. Um, so we need Lamar, makes everything go, obviously. So I'm looking forward to just getting all these guys back.

It's Chicago this week, who have been run on by some teams this year. Then Miami next week. Okay. Then Minnesota the week after that, who have been run on this year too.

And then it can kind of get some tough, but then you have like the Jets and the Bengals and the Steelers and the Bengals again. Like, there's a lot of games here.

Yes, there's a lot of games here for Derrick Henry to be a real difference maker despite him not catching any passes and being on the field so far this season.

Yep. Please Lamar, that hamstring better hold up.

Please. All right, Buffalo Bills. They're also coming out of a bye week. Uh, Hayden, what do you want to see from them?

Just start passing the ball again. I was looking at this. We've been wondering, hey, the Bills offense has felt like a little bit less, um, explosive. And I went back and looked at the neutral pass rate this month, and they're 31st in neutral pass rate. The only team that's lower was the Ravens, who have not had Lamar Jackson over that span. Like, literally cannot move the football at all. The Jets and the Giants have been more, um, pass-heavy than the Bills. You have Josh Allen, you know, use him. That that would be, I know, I know the offense could definitely run the ball. I don't love their wide receivers right now, but it's still Josh Allen throwing the football. So, there's no excuse to be 31st in in that category to me.

I was going to bring up the running game. So, I'm glad you brought up the passing attack because, you know, in the first four weeks of the season, James Cook looked like one of the best fantasy assets out there, and it was a ton of explosive runs. I mean, week one, he only had one 10-plus yard carry, but then week two against the Jets, that went up to two. Then you had week three against the Dolphins, he had four runs of 10-plus yards. Against the Saints, that was three carries of 10-plus yards. And then the next two games against the Patriots and the Falcons, it was only two in total. Now, week eight gets his Panthers defense. By the way, a Panthers defense that has not allowed a run further than eight yards in three straight games. Wow.

So it could be an interesting one to establish there. By the way, Sean McDermott, one of these coaches that previously said, "Oh, I'm getting rid of you, Ken Dorsey, because you're not running the football enough," and now we have a bye week and to try to get this offense and team overall back to winning ways. I do wonder if the message was, "Hey, let's run the football again."

Even more. Yeah. I mean, I think they're running it too much. I think you can have an explosive ground attack and just pass the ball a lot more than they can. So, they need somebody to step up. Like, looking at the, the Keon Coleman has not had a good game since week one. Uh, Khalil Shakir has been their most efficient target. Josh Palmer's made a play here or there, and then their best, like receiver this year has been Dalton Kincaid. So,

Could week. Yeah, I can see Kincaid having a good, you know, second half of of the season as well, just because I think they have to pass the ball a little bit more. Their defense also has been highly exposed. So, I think some people kind of went into the season thinking that the, the Bills have like a top 10 defense or something like that, just because they have had that for years and years. Nah. Like, and before the bye, a lot of those corners were laying on the ground by trainers. So, we'll have to see what the practice reports look like right there. But, to me, I think they're going to be in some shootouts, and I think that passing the ball is just going to be a more effective way. As good as their ground game is, it just doesn't need to be as balanced as it as it has been.

Their run defense definitely will be tested in week eight. Let's talk about their opponents here in the Carolina Panthers because they are up next. Uh, Bryce Young, a reported high ankle sprain, even if Dave Canales does not want to mention it. He's suggesting there's a chance he plays on Sunday. I highly doubt it and expect him to miss at least one game. Again, they are facing a Bills defense that has really struggled to stop rushing attacks. I mean, you can go in multiple occasions here. Um, but now we also get Andy Dalton, which, Hayden, I've seen, you know, people around the fantasy industry suggest that this could mean really good things for Tee Higgins and other wide receivers. What do you think, uh, for this week? Because we know at least Andy Dalton is starting in week eight.

Andy Dalton's still a very good backup quarterback. I don't think it's that big of a deal going from, uh, Bryce Young to to Andy Dalton. Um, they might pass the ball a little bit more. Um, who knows? It just comes down to the game scripts because the Panthers want to run the ball in general, and just can the defense hold up, and they've held up more this year than they had in previous years. So, we've seen a lot more fourth quarter runs than, uh, passes. Um, for the running backs, it's the easiest thing to to summarize.

Every drive, one player, and then the next drive, the next player. No exceptions. So,

It's gonna be a 50-50 split. Chuba gets the first first half, uh, and then Rico Dowdle gets the second half start, and that's just how it's going to be. Good luck trying to figure out which guy's going to get the goal line carry. Rico Dowdle's performed better than Chuba Hubbard this year. Izzy Lightyear's better as a talent. I'm not sure about that. Could just be small sample size noise and matchups and stuff that kind of leading the way. But right now, like the last, like month, the Panthers have about 23 expected running back points to divvy up between their backs. Cut it right in half. We're looking at 10, 11, 12 expected points. That's RB3 numbers in in half PPR, like 24th, 25th overall type of usage. So that's, that's the status of of the backfield.

To me, Rico Dowdle does look better. Now, part of that could be that Chuba Hubbard is coming back from an injury, but even in the first few weeks of the season, I would say the run blocking wasn't as good, and some of that is the competition that you face, too, including the Patriots and some of these other defenses. Uh, but Rico just breaks more tackles and, you know, has more explosiveness in his body. So, to me, are they slightly handicapping the offense by truly going series by series? A little bit. Um, but there's also a chance for both of them to have really strong weeks. Ben Solak posted this with EPA per designed rush. We'll talk about the Indianapolis Colts a bit later on. They're all by themselves. The only other team that has a positive EPA per designed rush so far this season is the Carolina Panthers. They are second in the league. So,

I also want to bring up, um, Xavier Legette off of his best game in many, many, many months. Made a catch with a defender draped on his back. Obviously had a 33-yarder at the end to seal it from Andy Dalton. That connection from Andy Dalton has kind of been there dating back to last season. I mean, he had a 42-yard game in Andy Dalton's start, six for 66 and one, three for 23 and one, and then what happened on Sunday on top of it. So, I don't know if that's going to continue. It would be very, very nice for the Panthers to have a secondary pass-catching option that you can rely to win in isolation other than Terrace Marshall Jr.

There were eight drop backs with Andy Dalton. Xavier Legette caught four of the, the, the targets. That's insane stuff. And his two biggest plays were with Andy Dalton. So, yeah, something to monitor there. I think largely Terrace Marshall Jr. had Sauce Gardner for most of the game, and then you throw the ball the other way, and I think Terrace Marshall Jr.'s going to be a nice bounce-back candidate. So, they, the last couple games before facing Sauce Gardner, they've been able to run the ball and take control of of games. There will be games coming up where they have to pass the ball, and Terrace Marshall Jr. is definitely better than the rest of these guys. Uh, I think it's gonna be difficult for him to be that top 15 fantasy wide receiver. Like, we've seen a lot of rookie wide receivers in the back half just because of the style of the offense and how good their, um, ground game has been. But could he be the wide receiver 23 for the rest of the way? I think that's totally possible.

Yeah, it's really simple. Uh, in neutral scripts, the Panthers are going to lean run. If they are winning, they're definitely going to run. Now, they will still throw in the red zone, and this team has been quite successful in the red zone, but in games that they are trailing, and by the way, in games that they have trailed big, they just go all out pass, and that could happen this week against the Buffalo Bills if Josh Allen's on a heater and if the offense can't go score points early, then we could see Andy Dalton dropping back 35, 40 times in this game, spread it out and throw the rock, and, uh, that could mean good things for the wide receivers. Quickly, just the last couple years with Andy Dalton, some of these old quarterbacks just go washed like right away. Do you think Andy Dalton is like above that scale, like totally fine enough quarterback, or is there washed elements here?

So, he had a really good game in his first start last year against the Las Vegas Raiders, and like threw the football to Deontay Johnson. They had these cool like screen schemed up plays down the field, and it was one of those, "Oh, this might be my last opportunity. I'm just going to let it rip" type things with Dalton.

And then he kind of looked a bit washed. Uh, I mean, go back and watch that Commanders game there. The Bengals won, too. Like, he had some really bad performances. So, I'm not sure. He's a backup quarterback right now talent-wise.

All right, let's talk about the Chicago Bears. We always talk about post-bye rookie bumps. Hayden, have we gotten a post-bye blocking bump? Because the run game in back-to-back weeks has been sensational. Now, we did get the Commanders and the Saints. And specifically in the Commanders, we outlined it on the show was a bunch of edge runs.

This week against the Saints, it was edge runs with D'Andre Swift, but also between the tackle stuff with Khamaal, which, by the way, they had the second and third highest yards before contact per attempt of the week. So that's exciting stuff and an exciting development for a team that, uh, definitely wants to have a rushing element to their game.

It's more D'Andre Swift and Khamaal, but it is fairly even throughout the game. This is not like just like a Khamaal got a bunch of run in the fourth quarter. Like, they're both getting snaps out there. Khamaal should be rostered in in serious fantasy football leagues. Credit to D'Andre Swift, though, his vision has been much better in the outside zone. They're actually creating big walls, and then he kind of surfs it back up the middle, and then he's also on these outside carries, he's just beating defenders to the edge. So, like, there was a big counter run that he had an explosive on, and we saw the the pitches and and the just kind of perimeter runs where his athleticism is showing off. But I think that he's handled the outside zone scheme very well with Ben Johnson and Khamaal showing out too. So this month, the unders, the RB5 and RB8 usage. I just traded for him in in a dynasty league where I'm trying.

To come in first place, and I, I traded away even a future first-round pick in that league because I'm, I'm a believer in that DeAndre Swift, who's under contract not just this year, but also next year. I think that they think higher of him than the fantasy community does, and Tuni is making fantastic blocks. Darnell Wright is making fantastic blocks, and, uh, even they're, they're getting some buy-in from the tack, the tight ends and wide receivers. So I think this is like largely pretty real for for DeAndre Swift right now.

I say this while also looking in the mirror on this. You can tell that the entire fantasy community has kind of had it with DeAndre Swift because when he has one of these touchdowns or one of these big plays during the game on Twitter, you don't see a single Swift in all caps. Whereas like if Rico Dat has one, it's Rico. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. Or Gibbs. Yeah. If it's, if it's any other player, there's at least a pocket of the fantasy community that loves to let it be known that they're a massive fan. And I haven't seen any of those with DeAndre Swift over the last two weeks. No.

Ian Hardiff has said some great memes about that exact situation. But this team is, is had moments where the pass game looks really good. The defense, now that it's actually healthy, they can stay in like regular game scripts. And now the offensive line is like, really, really started to gel. And Darnell Wright has been just fantastic. They get him out in space and he, he looks like Penny Su sometimes out there in space. So that's like, really, really cool to see. And then Joe Tuni, for as old as he is, he's making some incredible blocks, too. But DeAndre Swift does deserve a lot of credit. His athleticism is very real, and Ben Johnson's kind of putting him in the best spot. So everybody's a winner right now.

Just real quick, Reeves had some interesting data points coming out of their by-week and what the Lions have changed. They have set a new season high in motion rate per dropback in each of the last two weeks. Was at 64% and then 81.5% in week seven. However, Caleb is one of the quarterbacks over the last two weeks that his production falls off a cliff with motion so far. Again, he's averaging 8.6 yards per attempt on plays without any motion, which is third best in the league. And then again, they've been running a ton of motion compared to 6.3 yards per attempt with motion. That is 25th in the NFL. So, I'm sure the motion stuff is helping with the rushing attack, but it's not helping with the passing stuff. And, you know, other people have said, "Well, this is Caleb Williams worst game at different points of season." I kind of felt like this was Caleb Williams worst game of the year. He was looking super chaotic, dropping his eyes, and on these elongated snaps, instead of like resettling or resetting, he was trying to like throw on the move and forcing these passes when he really didn't need to.

Yeah, completely agree on that. He, he was bad, but the rest of the team stepped up. So that, that was kind of encouraging that the rest of the team was able to step up. And hopefully some of this under center play action stuff where it starts to feel a little bit more Lionzy, but it's going to take some time for Caleb Williams to obviously have the, the Jared Goff just, you know, like you got to line up your feet as the wide receivers are coming out of their break and stuff. It's very detailed oriented. Like the more you study the NFL, do you realize how every split second matters way down the field? So it's going to take some time there. Uh, Roma Dunay, he's had some like really bad luck recently. Like there's been plays where should have been touchdowns and defensive pass interferences. Ball barely, uh, gets knocked away. Um, I'm not really panicking about Roman Dun. I, I do think the only thing you can nitpick with him right now is if this Bears defense and this Bears ground game maintains what it's been doing recently, you're not going to have the crazy drop back games in the top five, top 10 and neutral pass rates, which we've seen before. I think it could be a little bit more of a balanced attack. Just like look at where Ben Johnson come from. Like that's, that's the goal is to get there and we're starting to see some signs that's going to be looking a little bit more Lionsy than 2024 Bearsy.

Currently again, they are six and a half point underdogs this week. So that could lean past a bit more.

And then next week they are facing the Cincinnati Bengals. Um, so that could be maybe some shootout potential there too.

Uh.

I test felt like Coulson Lovelin was the most involved he's been all season long.

Yeah.

Was that the case? Yes, season high. Six expected points.

There we go.

Pro season high. Con still at six.

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Okay, let's talk about those Cincinnati Bengals here. Uh, we know what the Flaco move is doing for Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. Can I quickly though take a look at Chase Brown? Because if Chase Brown also becomes fantasy relevant for the rest of the way, that's huge for when I was taking him what, round three, round four earlier on. Uh, he was 50th in yards before contact prior to week seven. Uh, that didn't improve that much in week seven, but what did improve was his isolated ability to break tackles and also just really poor tackling by the Pittsburgh Steelers. There was, uh, weeks one through six he only had forced 10 missed tackles. Week seven, he had seven forced missed tackles. And again, when you go back and look at them, uh, it's some really poor effort by the Steelers, safeties, and linebackers, and all that type of stuff. But, you know, even being a consistent top 20 asset at the running back position would be a big boost for the, uh, Chase Brownbacks.

He had 13 expected points with Flaco last week. So, that's RB2 level usage right there. So, that and it was like down like nine, uh, with Browning. And the offense is just going to be more efficient with Joe Flacco versus Brown. He's just, he is much better as a quarterback. So, everyone's going to look better here. Jamar Chase, ridiculous game by far his highest. This goes without saying. 31 expected half PP PPR points. T. Higgins season high 16 to 16.3 expected points. I thought it got just as much postgame with how just Joe Flacco was just talking about being in Cincinnati. He's just like grateful to be in the NFL still. And he was just laughing about how good these wide receivers are and how easy it makes his job. So yeah, I think that we're going to have some crazy games, um, from this, uh, I guess four fantasy asset players. Like, do you think Flaco is there any chance Flaco is going to be a top 15 guy rest of the way? Is that, is that too much?

Interesting.

Um, I don't know if I.

I mean, they're going to pass, they're going to pass like mad men.

A ton. A ton. And again, they do have the Jets this week almost certainly without S Gardner, which, uh, changes that dynamic immediately, you know, and then Chicago Bears and they have a by-week. And so maybe in that bye-week Joe Flaku can like learn the entirety of the playbook here, which maybe we don't want him to, you know, maybe we don't want him to learn.

The playbook just says Jamar Chase. Okay, there we go. Got it.

And then after that, it's the Steelers, the Patriots, and the Baltimore Ravens. And we'll see if the Ravens defense can change their stripes at all mid-season. But, uh, yeah, I mean,

when you look at these strength of schedules in terms of easiest the rest of the way,

the Bengals actually have number one when it comes to running back stuff with Chase Brown. So, I'm, I'm somewhat leaving the light on there despite the blocking so far this year.

Yeah. And, you know, despite only being projected for 13 points last week,

I think your note on the Steelers defense is very worth bringing up.

They're old. The effort seems weird. There's so many busted coverages still.

Primary reads, first reads were just wide open over and over and over again.

They got issues, man. For for a team that's what four and two, they got, they got some issues.

Issues.

Yeah.

Okay, let's stick in the AFC North and talk about Joe Fac's old team and the Cleveland Browns. Uh, I had this game on Sunday. I didn't mention the sick Quinn Chong Judkins run because there was so much to talk about with the Miami Dolphins.

Yeah.

But the acceleration and I had my notes to pull away from the rest of the defense after breaking the arm tackle of the safety about 12 yards down the field and then again the restart to make that a 46 yard touchdown run is, uh, truly awesome stuff from Quinn.

I think he's a top 10 rusher in the league right now. Like no question about it. His tape every single week. He's just, he's good at everything. Like I think his vision's been good. His contact balance is good. He's got great acceleration, um, at the first and second level and he's fast enough down the field as well. He, he's a very, very good player. So we just need to make sure that the Browns defense stays very good, which they have been very good and they seem motivated.

There are some home and road splits with him.

Interesting. Yeah. Um, to me, just the splits that we have to, it's like December when Miles Garrett said, you know what, screw this team versus the rest of the year where he's like trying to will this team to victories. Um, then yeah, we'll see about the, the rest of the pass game offense. I did just want to note if David Njoku does not play, um, and I think he's day-to-day right now. Harold Fannon did play 83% of the snaps and was targeted and still had a great rep out in the receiving game.

They're going to pass the ball more. And if Fannon plays that much and he keeps playing the way he is, he will have top five fantasy outings the rest of the season. It was just unfortunate that Judkins and the defense were so good that Harold Fannon did not have to get peppered with targets.

I'm going to make you decide here between two of your favorites.

I know. I know what's coming.

Rest of career, who do you like?

Harold Fannon or Ronda Gatston?

Um, I'll, I'll stick with Fannon, but if Fannon was on the Chargers, it wouldn't even be close. I get Fannon, but Captain looks awesome.

Career, there you go.

Clip it. Yep.

Uh, for the rushing scheme, you couldn't go any different than facing the Dolphins this week and then facing the Patriots this week. Uh,

yeah.

That's going to be a tough one because the Patriots have done a really, really good job at stuffing the run in multiple, multiple games. So, we'll see. We'll see what Dylan Gabriel can do with that one.

Okay, let's talk about the Dallas Cowboys. Very easy to talk about. Play everyone. I mean, just overall, we discussed this because on Sunday they were this. If they just had a league average defense, it would automatically make them a Super Bowl contender. Heck, I would even throw out a slightly below average defense.

Oh, yeah.

Uh, maybe it can pop up and they get hot and they can do that or they make a move here at the deadline to do that, but the offense is that good that that's the case. I don't even know who to single out. Um, I guess CD Lamb came, came back. He had, you, you said it in the recap show. He put his hand up on the mailbox so early and really there was like not even that good of a reason to do it

on the field.

But there was still a safety right in front of him. He just catches the ball and then was able to like split him. But it was, yeah, it was a perfect pass from Ced Lamb, but that was one of the earliest mailboxes running directly out of safety I've seen. Loved that play. George Pickkins also had one of the funniest reps I saw where it was that big play on the sideline. Two things that stood out or three things. George Pickkins like walks off the line of scrimmage, like legitimately just starts walking and then starts running, which is very rare to see. And then his late hands, like he talked about this on a, on a podcast clip I saw of him just, he said if you look up, you have, you can track the ball better, but it's also about just putting your hands out the last second because that's when corners going to go in there. He just practices that all the time and that's why he's, he's so good at that. So, he's going to have some big moments. There were some defensive pass interferences from both of these guys. So, these guys could have even had bigger games than they did. Javvante Williams keeps breaking tackles and then Jake Ferguson still heavily involved. So, like you said, these, these four guys are.

I mean, Javvante, is he not like a top five, six running back rest of the season? Like, I would rather have.

You already have the top four. Like, then that's putting him at five is, is I think.

Potential. I would rather have Javvante. This, the situation is so stable.

I don't know. I mean, at some point we will get Bucky Irving back and who, who knows off of injury, but like, you know, if it's five Hayden, you're taking out Josh Jacobs in that equation.

Is Josh Jacobs on the top four? I mean, he's probably.

Okay. Jir Gibbs isn't in there.

Yeah. No. So, so it's the, put Gibbs and Jacobs in there as your top five. Then it's players like Achain, uh, Kairen Williams, Javvante Scataboo.

Yeah.

Quan Judkins. I mean, he's, he's to me, he's at the top of that tier of player. So, is he, is he the wide receiver or running back seven rest of the way? I think so.

I just couldn't go to, uh, top five there.

Five, six, or seven. Final answer. Okay.

Looking at their schedule, they do have the Denver Broncos this week. So, that's a really fun one from multiple angles here.

Yeah. I mean, I'm glad CD Lamb coming back hasn't taken anything away from Jake Ferguson, who is a go-to player for them in the red zone on top of it. So, uh, Brian Shottenheimimer, you know, weird hiring cycle for him, especially the introductory press conference where Jerry Jones, uh, talked for 20 straight minutes before answering a single question. Uh, shout out Brian Shottenheimer though because we are seeing,

if not exactly the same stuff for Mike McCarthy, it taken up another notch a little bit, which is cool.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. And George Pickkins also, big shout out to him. He's, he's really been like, I think the big change for the offense.

You talked about late hands. I'm also glad he's learned how to catch the football in the field of play this year, too.

Yeah. Well, sometimes the ball being thrown in the field of play also helps.

Well, that sounds like a Russell Wilson problem.

All right, let's talk about the Green Bay Packers. Uh, I also had this game on Sunday. Did you have a chance to go back and watch the, Yep.

Matthew Golden stuff at all?

Uh, I didn't single him out in general. I wanted to watch the Josh Jacobs stuff in particular just because, you know, he was, he graded out very well. Um, but no, hit me on, hit me on the, the golden stuff again.

No, I mean, again, we just don't have every series consistency usage yet. And that's just Romeo Dos and Tucker Craft,

and obviously Josh Jacobs and that's about it.

Look, I believe that this Packers team on multiple levels have like difference makers, uh, and can, you know, get to a Super Bowl. Uh, do they always play like that for four quarters? Definitely not. But I believe they are number one in third down conversion rate right now. I think some of that is the short yardage stuff that Josh Jacobs can bring to the table and then they also go for it on fourth down and can be super aggressive with that. So, uh, I'm excited for what the team can be in like week 14.

Yeah, they're starting at their offensive linebacker. Remember, they didn't have that for most of September. So, that's going to be a big difference. The fact that they're still so good in short yard situations is very promising. So, Jacob's having another great season. I know the yards per carry stuff isn't there, but success rate and all that stuff is top line. Tucker Craft as usual. Did want to shout out Romeo Dobs last month. Wide receiver 10 and wide receiver nine usage. So, no one ever ranks him that high. I'm not going to rank him that high, but the avenues for Romeo Dobs to have massive, uh, games are, are still there. Christian Watson, this his last week to get cleared, um, after his 21-day window opened up. So, if he doesn't make it this, this week, which he will, then he would have to miss the rest of the season. So, expect Christian Watson to be activated probably in a limited role. Um, taking some snaps away from like Donte, Wick, Embley, Heath, and those type of guys.

Let's talk about the Indianapolis Colts, number one team in the league right now in many, many, many metrics. I mean, including my eyes, Hayden. When you go back and watch this passing offense, I understand that they play Jesse Mentor's, you know, sometimes soft coverage and especially in zone, but I think this offense might have the most open wide receivers in the NFL,

week to week. Uh, it's like as soon as Daniel Jones hits his back foot, you have these hinge routes into zone coverage or you have someone breaking into wide open space. And it makes you wonder like, why can't all passing offenses look like this. And at the same time, if someone isn't open, we have seen Daniel Jones throw with anticipation this year on outside breaking routes or when guys haven't entered that area of the field yet. And then he's also, you know, made some plays under duress at the same time. So, shout out Shane Syiken. That simple.

Have you seen a better coached offense this year?

I mean, it, it is a well-oiled machine every, every single drive.

There was, there was a couple plays wanted to shout and there's a great thread about him, um, from a coach. They are now reading Don Jones is reading the backside player on the zone read stuff. They're, he's like, got his hands, his eyes like this. I've never seen that. They're creating explosives off that. And also they're getting like Tyler Warren. You typically see like the tight ends kind of cut behind the offensive line on these little play action stuff. They're doing it now in front of the offensive line to go to the linebacker and then they run play action off of that and the linebackers are about to like light up, uh, Tyler Warren who all of a sudden just says nope and is wide open. So there's just, there's wrinkles off of like the basic elements that we're kind of used to that's just almost at like the next level. Um, so it reminds me of like when Laflur was like first with the Packers, all of a sudden like he was doing a bunch of crazy stuff and we've seen other court, uh, like Liam Cohen last year. That's Shane Stiken this year who's just doing more wrinkles and they have the right talent to, to do it and then Daniel Jones playing well. But really, I think like Shane Stiken, his offense right now, if you was like trying to steal the most plays, I think every coach would be should be studying Shane Stikken, they probably are.

And I don't know if they have like a single superstar at wide receiver. I mean, again, Tyler Warren is a top five tight end right now. Michael Pitman is so good for his role. Alec Pierce is very good for his role, and when Josh Downs comes back, he can be very good for his role.

Uh, and it all works. I have some other numbers I want to bring up. Currently, the Colts average 4.9 red zone drives per game. The next closest teams are the Rams and the Chiefs at 4.3. So, by far and away, the Colts are the best. You just look at 16th across the board. The Jaguars, the Broncos, and the Panthers are 3.1 red zone drives per game. The Colts, though, are also eighth in red zone touchdown success rate at 68% conversion. So, that's a crazy good combination. Most red zone drives per game and then also top 10 at converting those four-point plays. And a big part of it is the passing game we talked about. But most of all, it's Jonathan Taylor being a,

yeah,

total freak out there. And on top of the rushing stuff, he already has the most receiving yards in a season for him since the 2021 season. And we're only seven games into this one.

Yeah, he's on pace for like 2,000 yards rushing and then 26 touchdowns. It's a ridiculous pace and it doesn't feel like super onedimensional when they get to the red area. There's just so much misdirection in the red area. So like Warren, Pitman, they're all getting free, free touchdowns and then, um, we've talked about with Alec Pierce, but just more dig routes for Alec Pierce and that's opening up another layer. He's just not Mr. Dimensional. So over the last month, Alec Pierce, I know he's missed some time, he has a wide receiver 26 in usage. So there's worse dart throw wide receiver threes during bye-weeks than than Alec Pierce. We posted a clip on Monday from the Sunday night show about us believing that there is a chance that the Indianapolis Colts can reach the Super Bowl based on how they played so far this season. A lot of the comments we got back were, "Well, they haven't played anyone yet. We'll see against good teams." Okay, we look on their schedule. They play the Tennessee Titans this week. Then it's at the Pittsburgh Steelers, who we just talked about their poor tackling. And then it's the Atlanta Falcons, and then they get a buy. Okay, so there's their next four weeks. Then after that, Kansas City. Fantastic. Houston, Jacksonville, Seattle, San Francisco, and Jacksonville again. So, yes, in the back half, are we going to get some like really fun tests in Kansas City, Seattle, San Francisco, and you can throw in both of those Jacksonville games, plus Houston's defense? 100%. But where are you going to be through week 11 with this team having this type of consistency and looking this good, which is awesome? They're gonna, I mean, they might have the freaking bye-week in the playoffs. I mean, they're winning the division. It's like not even close. I think that they're way too good on offense versus the rest of the division. So, they're going to be playing the first game at home. And I just really.

There's only one, there's only one team that gets that, you know, so we'll see.

Yeah. But they're going to at least have a home game, uh, to, to open up, if not the by-week, you know?

Right.

That Chiefs Colts game, I cannot wait for that. I did not know we had that coming up, but that's going to be a banger.

All right, let's talk about the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are going into their bye-week. They were down 21 nothing in the third quarter.

I said, "Thank God they're going into their bye-week. I need a break from them."

I.

We both need a break from them. We are huge fans of Travis Hunter. Suggested to many people they should be drafting him because he's an amazing individual talent and we finally got to see like that put into practice at the wide receiver spot in terms of opportunity after opportunity after opportunity. Uh, the underdog NFL account posted that, you know, his snap rate has really gone up since week one. 62%, 60%, 53%, and 57%. And then of these last two, it's at 80% and 86%. Um, I do hope that that sustains itself. I also recognize that that is partially because in the opening five weeks of the season, Britain Strange was active and on the field and when he was healthy, they were in 11 personnel at like the 12th highest rate across the league. And over these last two games, also when trailing, they are number one in three wide receivers at usage. The only glimmer of hope I have of Travis Hunter being like an 80 to 85% rate snap player on offense the rest of the way is Liam Cohen on an in-house interview said we are going to play the best 11 players as much as humanly possible after this bye-week. I hope that's so because I want to see Travis Hunter make critical and impactful catches on offense like he has in some major wins this season.

Post-bye rookie bump could be huge for for Travis Hunter. I, I hope that they just get him in that offensive playbook and there's more chemistry. Uh, last week was an awesome week. That big touchdown was was all about Travis Hunter making that, that play. Did also want to recognize that the score was 35 to 7. So of course they're going to use that personnel grouping. Of course he's going to get a lot more targets in this one. Uh, but yeah, at least some signs of life for for Travis Hunter, the wide receiver who I still think makes a lot of plays when the ball's finally thrown his way. It's, it's a roller coaster to get there, but we'll see what they do coming out of the by-week. And then same old issues for Brian Thomas working over the middle. Um, and then had that big one where he had to go jump up in the air and try to catch that one in traffic and was not able to come down with that. So, those little details are the difference between Brian Thomas being a wide receiver two in fantasy versus the boom bust wide receiver three that he's been. So, hopefully, I don't know if it's a shoulder or wrist injury or whatever his deal was on the sideline on that one, but he's just not looking the same. Um, I had one other note early in that game. Trevor Lawrence is making bad decisions and he's inaccurate. There's, there was so many throws. There was a big out route that Brian Thomas, they, Trevor Lawrence could have thrown that. There was a third and one where Travis Hunter was wide open and he instead throws the flat route and that was just like reading one defender and just making the wrong choice like eight yards in front of your face. There was other ones where the ball kind of sails on him. Trevor has not taken that leap. And really, I do think it's just a lot of the, the dysfunction of the offense. Like some of it is just he's just not making the correct decisions. And that's kind of frustrating for somebody.

Part of it, I think there's a lot of other dysfunction on top of it, too.

Of course. Of course. But he's the fifth highest paid player in the NFL. He's not playing like the fifth best player in the NFL. Not even close to it. So, if he's, if he's going to be kind of in the quarterback 20 in the NFL, then that, that's got to be pretty frustrating for what he could have been under Liam. To me, there's multiple layers of dysfunction or questionable moments that are easy to bring up now that they're four and three versus like four in one. You know, like

a couple weeks ago when we would bring up, well, they struggle with pre-snap penalties and Travis Hunter knowing where to line up and Brian Thomas drops. It's like, yeah, but they're winning games, so does it really matter? Now that they're, you know, on a two-game losing streak and not look nearly as good and down 21 nothing in start of the third quarter, then you can bring them up. And then the other dysfunction is the Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL at converting quote catchable targets. So even on-target stuff from FTN fantasy and Brian Thomas Jr. ranks 83rd among 83 wide receivers in catching catchable targets. So again, there's been a lot of conversation about his usage. We've brought that up where, uh, he's not getting the wide receiver screens, the gimmies that he got last season, and he's kind of living in that 10 to 19 yard range and the middle of the field stuff just isn't working nearly as good this year because, um, he's scared to catch the football.

Yeah. There's other options where he was, he was putting up his hand down the field and Trevor was not throwing those too. So, it's, it's been everything. Did also want to note Olly Connelly who does fantastic job. He was at this game and he's worked in scouting in the NFL and he was on the, uh, Jacksonville sideline. He said it was one of the most dysfunctional sidelines from the quarterback getting the play calls in, knowing who's going to be rotating in, that he's ever seen that was from this last game. So, they might be doing a little bit too much. Maybe Trevor can't handle it, uh, mentally. Maybe this all just comes down to they don't know which wide receiver is supposed to be in and what spots and all that type of stuff, but like you don't really hear a detail like that. Like he was on the sideline. He said, like it was a complete mess on the sideline. So you don't love to hear that, um, halfway through the season either.

And then the other part is their running attack was really awesome through the first four games of the season and then hasn't been as much over the last few. So like that can add to the dysfunction of everything. I'm saying all this because I love so many pieces on the Jaguars, got super excited about what this can be and I still think they can put it together and maybe the by-week is exactly the time for a new coaching staff and all these new players and especially ones that you're trying to work on both sides of the ball to have like the game slow down for them,

because.

when it's good, it's like, it's really good.

Yeah. Yep. They definitely have their moments. Even Trevor, like, I, I say some stuff about Trevor and I, I totally believe it and could back it up. He also can make some really nice throws down the field. So, they just got to, I think they need to simplify things. The by-week, no team needed a by-week more than than Jacksonville right now.

Right. And also the number two overall pick in the draft who is trying to do something that basically no other NFL player has done, who this organization gave up and spent two first-round picks plus a second rounder on. It is worth talking about how his usage is evolving every single week.

I think that is a totally fair thing to bring up on a weekly basis in terms of analysis.

Las Vegas Raiders, I don't know if there's much analysis here. Opening 12 plays of this game, Ash and Genty had one touch. Uh, and as we discussed on Sunday, they had 30 total plays on offense. The team just has zero, and I mean zero, identity. Their offensive line, it sounds obvious, but Jackson Powers Johnson was left on one-on-ones all game long against Chris Jones and it looked like a Hall of Famer versus like a middle schooler. So, I know Jackson Powers Johnson like had some moments at center, but the right guard stuff that they've been doing has not been working. The right tackle, Glaze, he in his second season has been a total liability. So, yeah, they can't get to Ashen Genty because they are always in bad situations. They had a couple bad drops over the middle on this one. And then the other note is Bes and, uh, Thornton, they had opportunities one-on-ones like first read, please win. It's third and freaking six or whatever. Please get open. And they can't. Like they really, really, really can't. So I think this entire draft class looks really bad. The, the, the day two and day three wide receivers have looked bad. Obviously Ash and Genty being sixth overall, it looks really bad, especially because Membu is playing well and their own right tackle is not playing well. So this.

Do you think he looks bad in isolation though or do you think it's an environmental issue? Because I don't think he looks bad in isolation at all. I think he still looks very good.

Bad is not the right way to describe it. He looks totally fine. The difference like you talked about Gibbs and Bejon and Jonathan. Do you see those?

Oh, I see those moments for sure when he's given the second level. 100%. I've seen them so far this season. Yeah, I think there's, I think he's the tier below that. So, I think he looks more like Josh Jacobsy, uh, or somebody else in that tier of player. Uh, but either way, he doesn't have.

We also have to remember though, just real quick on that.

Bejian and Gibbs were split backfields part-time players in their opening season.

I'm just saying like athletically out in space. Like I, I don't see it to the same degree. And and that's.

Damn, I do like, I mean, he is breaking so many tackles once given the second level. Like there just so few opportunities to do that. So few.

There are the right guard and the right tackle, it's, it's a complete disaster and also they, I think they have some protection plan issues in general. It was not even that bad of a game. There was just drops and Bes and Thornton are huge problems right now too. Like and they're about to trade Jacobe Myers, I'm guessing. Man, it's not a good look. Their draft class could be one of those like draft class you be like, damn, you, you really could have made a, a big difference here and I'm just not seeing it.

Yeah, the whole plan as, as we keep talking about every week is, uh,

did not follow through, you know, in terms of the old head coach, the former head coach who's now an OC getting an older quarterback. It just, you tried to jump the line and it's not going to work. I'm going to end in one positive here for the Raiders. All right. Oh, wow.

Ian Rapaort, we are seeing historic numbers apparently for some members of the rookie class at this point last season. Hayden, only one rookie through week seven had 500 plus scrimmage yards. That coincidentally was Brian Thomas Jr. who is not close to that at this moment. Uh, this year we actually have four rookies at this point to do that. Those names, Cam Scataboo, Quinn Sean Judkins, Icha Ibuka, and Ashen Genty.

So there we go.

Progress.

Let's talk about the Los Angeles Rams. They put a beat down on the Jaguars. Positive regression or progression, hit Devonte Adams in terms of those three end zone catches, four touchdowns. Um, anything you want to add to this team? Uh, because while we saw Jordan Whittington, you know, fill in for Puka, Uh, he did not fill in in terms of the stat sheet. And if I'm not mistaken, this team is also on a buy. So, uh, hopefully Puka comes back afterwards. Sounds like Puka is going to be back. The wrinkle that the Rams did, which they've hinted at for years and have never actually done it, was used multiple tight ends and they got all the tight ends and that meant Whittington did not play. I think he was 25 of 26 snaps without Puka the game before. Then they got a week to game plan and then they got a second and even a third tight end. They were running some three tight end looks out there as well. And Whittington went from like 100% snaps down to like 65 or 75.

I do think he played the most wide receiver snaps on the team though.

Yes. Yes. He was still like the guy. Um, and also what could he do? Staff throws for five touchdowns and you're playing the wide receiver that plays the most snaps like things could have broke his way. It, it's what happens. We're talking about somebody I think I've been ranked like wide receiver 35. So he busted, but it was a good matchup. Stafford balled out like we expected and Devonte Adams scored all the touchdowns plus the, the tertiary tight ends. So, they got some good depth at that tight end group. Like you see the Jake Ferguson and obviously Higgby and, um, yeah, it was an awesome game. This team looks incredible.

I forgot to bring this up with the Bears, so I'll bring it up now. Here, uh, Marcus Moer puts out the most big plays, uh, through each game that's played. So through week seven, the LA Rams are averaging 7.1 big plays, which is a 20 plus yard reception or a 10 plus yard run. That's number two in the league. The Chicago Bears are actually number one with 8.0 right now per game. So yeah, I mean, 20, 10 plus yard runs goes to while they've shuffled some piece along the offensive line, that helps. And then obviously the receiving department, they are by far and away number one right now with 30 receptions of 20 plus yards. I mean, Stafford, while the back issue might have hampered him last season and he was just missing throws we weren't used to for this type of cannon for an arm, uh, he is back all the way this year.

He's been so money. There's two reps, him rolling to his left. He's able to like rotate his hips and actually square things up on these big like bootlegs going to his left that other quarterbacks can't do. And there's also a play in the red area where there was a free rusher comes off a second read and throws the ball so early to the back of the end zone for a play. Um, so Stafford's been incredible and Dvonte Adams easily right now the most expected touchdowns at the position. It's like not even close. And now we got those converted. So, it's going to be a big, big second half of the season. I think the Rams belong in that NFC conversation. Absolutely.

Yeah. And immediately out of the buy to get the New Orleans Saints as well.

Let's go.

All right, let's talk about the Miami Dolphins. Uh, considered maybe a coaching or quarterback change. We're getting neither because maybe this team believes they can tank with Tua.

Yeah. Not tank for Tua, tank with them.

Yeah. I mean, the coaching staff's probably gone, but there's no point like there's no really advantage of firing a head coach in the middle of the season unless there's like huge locker room. Imagine Mike McDaniel going over and becoming like an offensive assistant or consultant for a team for like the remainder of the way.

Yeah. Yeah. The Texans. That would be great. Um.

That would be incredible.

So yeah, they're just going to stick him back out there and see what happens. Yeah, it's just going to be status quo. There's, I wish I had like more to say. They're also not going to face Miles Garrett and windy weather conditions the rest of the season. So like, should we completely ride off Wadd and Aan? I, I would not. There's someone on Twitter and shout out to him in PM stats and research PM_Analytics. Jaylen Wadd appears on basically every Air Yard share since Tyreek Hill has gone down. Like when you look in the standard category, uh, Jaylen Wadd is third in terms of 51% of his team's air yards. When you look at early downs, he's fourth across all wide receivers with 56% of his team's air yards. When you look when trailing, Jaylen Wadd is fourth with 47% of his team's air yards. So while it was a total disaster this past week, again, the underlying numbers are going to point us in the direction of Jaylen Mo.

If you can buy low on him, I, I would, I would view him as a top 20 wide receiver the rest of the way. Um, maybe, maybe top 24. It because if it does go to Quinners and Zach Wilson, it could get really ugly. Now, I would be interested. I think the Dolphins should run that experiment. That would not be the best result for for Jaylen Waddle individually. And we'll see if they eventually have to to cave in. They, the fact that they don't know who their quarterback who's going to be. They're battling still is if you don't know who your quarterback one is, you have a problem. If you don't know who your quarterback two is, you have even have a bigger problem. So, we, we'll see about the situation.

Let's talk about the Minnesota Vikings. Aaron Jones could return as soon as Thursday. His practice window is open and that was an immediate statement that NFL insiders put out. Jordan Mason has been a fancy asset so far and has ran well. What do you think Aaron Jones returning could do to his value?

I'm going to guess he doesn't play. It's a short week and they obsess over practices. Um, so I'm guessing.

Especially lower body mechanics.

Definitely, you got to, you got to see what you have. Um, Jordan Mason is probably going to be the guy this week. I would still say he's been the running back 22 and running back 23 usage this week. We've seen some teams take advantage, um, against the Chargers on the ground. So, we'll see with that one. Um, offensive line's getting a little bit healthier than what where it kind of bottomed him out a couple weeks ago and it's going to be Carson Wentz for one more game. Th this Carson Wentz is, it's kind of like the Jamus years where he's good enough to move the football but also bad enough to put yourself into situations where you're chasing a bunch of points and then you get bad enough at the front and then trying to crawl back out of the hole. They've been, I mean, they're top five in neutral pass rate this this last month at 60%. And then they're number two in wide receiver usage over this last month because you get interceptions early and then you get a bunch of passes down the field and some broken coverages and you have these two stud receivers that they're both getting home. So, a tough test across the country on a short week here, but Carson Wentz is kind of teetering where I think definitely good enough to move the chains despite having all of his issues.

Yeah, if we look at Jordan Madison since he returned from his buy, or excuse me, his suspension, I should say, he is wide receiver 12 in points per game. I mean, 13.4, 12.6, 17.3. He's always one of these players that is difficult for me to like come on a show like this and say, "Hey, we need to buy into Jordan because he does this, this, and this extremely well."

That what first or second year he was getting by not by fluky plays, but kind of one-off occasions where he would like.

Rip the ball away from a defensive back that has, you know, many more pounds on him and then run down the field or broken plays as these guys collide with each other. Uh.

But I think it's because he's in a Kevin O'Connell offense where, especially like you're saying, when down, he runs like these out and ups or these sideline routes and these whole shots. And when those are converted, those are high-value targets and big plays down the field, and he's a big-play machine.

Yes, downfield targets are the most volatile, but they're easily the most valuable, and he gets a bunch of them in this offense, especially if the defense isn't going to be as good as they could have been this year. Um, that's going to help him out. And then, uh, I think as long as Carson Wentz is there, he's just going to be a little bit more aggressive than what JJ McCarthy is. So, we'll see. I'm guessing this is going to be the last week of Carson Wentz. But Chev, they basically said that. So, they all said that if this game was on Sunday, then JJ McCarthy, it sounded like he was going to start. But since it is Thursday, he can't. And so then you can't go back and say, "Oh, well, actually the next week he's not healthy enough to play." The three days of his ankle healing is the difference. Or is it about just not being fully prepared and ready to run the offense? Or is that what it is?

Three, three days is the difference.

I don't know. By the way, I think I might go to this game. I haven't been to SoFi Stadium. Um, might might go live and see, see what's going on. I might, I might go on the Minnesota Vikings sideline and see how much JJ McCarthy's moving around.

Say hi to my guy Josh while you're there.

I'll try. I'll try.

Shout out. I don't think he gets you tickets though. Okay. New England Patriots. Um, not after my tweets. Awesome passing attack, terrible rushing attack. Obviously, the rushing game was a lot better against the Titans, but when you just look overall, they are only, I think, above the Las Vegas Raiders in terms of EPA rushing team in the league, second worst in the NFL. Um, but at the same time, Drake May is freaking awesome.

Drake May is the truth. Uh, Kahan Booty on these downfield passes, it's been like the best in the NFL. So, like that's been like the real driving force of the offense. Uh, all those fumbles early on from the backs have made the EPA really bad, but Raandra Stevenson, they're getting him going. They're just choosing to run it with Raandre. Um, they run Trayvon up the middle a lot, and I just don't think he's very good at it. He's just so light that he, I don't think he's ever going to be a really strong between-the-tackles rusher, and they're not choosing to make him a priority. So, in the meantime, they want to run the ball right up the middle with Raandre Stevenson. And I think we should just acknowledge, like, that's what it's going to be. And it was a season-high 14.2 points for Raandre last year, and Trayvon barely played. And, uh, I was going to ask you, do you know what a five-minute back is? I've heard they have the four-man off.

Yeah, they're making up a role for this new running back. That's what Vable called him. So, um, yeah, they can't run the ball. They're they're

But they're not going to be able to run the ball this week. Like they could only do it against the Titans so far this season.

Yeah. Uh, and now they get the Cleveland Browns here in week eight.

Bottom two teams in rushing success rate, the Texans and then the Patriots.

Let's talk about the New Orleans Saints, uh, and lead off with their rushing game because Kendra Miller, who I would say looked very good, especially in comparison to his previous years, is out for the year with a torn ACL, which really sucks. You know, he dealt with a bunch of injuries heading into the league and then never got playing time under Dennis Allen. Finally got playing time this year with Kell Moore, and again, he was breaking tackles out there and was looking like a nice compliment to Alvin Kamara.

On top of that, their center Eric McCoy once again suffered a season-ending injury, and he's out for the rest of 2025. So, from an opportunity standpoint, it is Alvin Kamara and Deon Neal out of Kansas. Uh, you would like to think that that could potentially leave us a top 12 or 15 running back in Alvin Kamara. I'm just also totally nervous about, you know, this team being in neutral game scripts, this team throwing the football to their running back, and also the run blocking now that one of the, I would say, top 10 centers in football, Eric McCoy, is out. Their guard stinks, and he, the center's now out, and they got a left tackle who's promising a top 10 pick, but he's also a rookie left tackle, and so you have to deal with him getting used to the league. So, this month, I think this kind of sums up Alvin Kamara, running back 15 in usage, running back 37 in points. I think he's going to be top 15 in usage the rest of the way. Um, he has to be a little bit more efficient or start becoming more of a PPR scam to like really be a fantasy RB2, but he is definitely going to be in the mix. I mean, he's like a, he's like a beetle, man. You can't just, you can never end, end this guy's fantasy career. So, we'll see.

Cockroach. Beetle. Yeah, same thing. Can't

I'm assuming a cockroach is a form of a beetle.

I don't have

The saying is

any scientific accuracy on that. It has to be. It's like, you know, a square is a rectangle.

Yeah. Those types of

Yeah, it's all the same. Either one, a cockroach and a beetle, they're not scoring too many fantasy points. I'm not sure if Valen Kamara is going to, but Devin Neal was somebody who had like three consecutive seasons at Kansas where like over a thousand rushing yards and also caught 20 passes. And it depends on how you want to view him. Is there a big ceiling to chase with Deon Neal? There's not. Just athletically and size-wise, fairly limited. Is he highly trusted? I do think he's highly trusted. Um, but I'm not sure if he's going to be like, all of a sudden, we're refreshing. It's like, Devin Neal looks so amazing, you have to bench Alvin Kamara. I think he's just like, "Oh, there's your running back too now." And he can kind of hold up and however you want to use him.

He did have a sick pass pro rep where a diving, I think it was Jaquan Brisker, if I'm not mistaken, was elevating to go get Spencer Rattler, and out of nowhere here comes Deon Neal, the spear mid-air.

There we go.

Pretty cool stuff. Uh, Chris Olave, all three of his explosives, touchdowns, and big downfield stuff, all from the slot. So, there's one motioned into into the slot like right at the snap, and then other times he's just winning one-on-one as a slot receiver. So, that's just like a good, fun little wrinkle from Kell Moore. Kell Moore is trying his best out there.

Okay, let's talk about the New York Giants. Um, Giants this week because their wide receiver room were actually first in 12 personnel versus the Broncos at 54.5% of their offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Denver played them and responded with base on just 35% of snaps. So, again, a schematic advantage I would give there to Brian Daboll, and why he's, you know, having some success here. Uh, anything you want to add about what you said about the Giants from Sunday?

Yeah, just watching the All-22 this game, I thought Jackson Dart played a hell of a game. And, um, you just see the off-script stuff with him is just a lot of fun. So, in one way, that's the scrambles, but he just keeps his eyes up and kind of extends the play in pretty fun ways. And he had a couple crazy moments, like the Theo Johnson touchdown, like should not have been a touchdown, so we can't give Jackson Dart credit there. But the Bellinger one down the field was all Jackson Dart just creating, uh, plays out of structure. So, I went back, uh, PFF has, um, after the first read looks, number one Patrick Mahomes, number two in first down rate after the first read is now Jackson Dart. So, am I expecting that to hold? No. But just shows you like what he's kind of dealing with right now. And, um, he also had a beautiful pass to Daniel Bellinger on a big corner route that he dropped, and it was probably going to be his best play.

I always had a question about the first read stuff. Um, because I just don't know how that's charted. Is that like, hey, I'm holding the middle of the field safety, and then I look to the outside and throw it to the outside? Is that second read or first read?

I'm guessing that's probably second read. I mean, they have all the plays written up, and they, they talked, I, I kind of trust what they're, they're charting.

Oh, no, no, no. I was just overall interested because that's really the first concept. You know what I mean? In terms of But his eyes don't start there.

Right. I just think that they, they have all, there's only so many different combinations of routes, and they know the typical progressions. Now, do they know exactly the alerts and all that stuff for that specific offense? They probably don't know every single detail, but in general, and it just matches my eye test.

After the first read, he goes out and scrambles for a bunch of first downs. That's

I meant every quarterback. I didn't just mean Jackson Dart. I mean everything because all quarterbacks do that.

For sure. And then he also had two dumb, kind of plays. So, the interception, that was just a bad throw. There's somebody at his feet. He just like threw it right to the linebacker, but he was thrown to the right spot. And then the other one was in the last drive where the two defenders jump up and knock it down. That was also the right read. The wide receiver had to step on him. He just threw it short. So, I thought both of those decisions were fine. It was just he left both of them short for different reasons, but a lot of fun. You know, like he's thrown to Jalen Robinson and Lil Jordan Humphrey and Jayden Hyatt right now. Like that's his three wide receiver set. Doesn't get any worse than that. While we're recording, Russell Wilson posted on X about Sean Payton. I'll read it out to you.

All right.

Oh, boy. Classless, but not surprised. Didn't realize you're still bounty hunting 15-plus years later through the media.

Yeah, I don't know what to think about Sean Payton.

I think the same goes for Russell Wilson here. All right. Uh, anything else you want to add about this team? I mean, Cam Akers is obviously still owning the backfield, even if we got a three-yard run from Tyrod Taylor, which was cool to see because I'm still a Taylor guy, too.

RB9 and RB4 usage this month. So, is he top 10 running? I mean, how many weeks in a row does it have to be? It's now six.

All right, let's talk about the New York Jets. Uh, couple of news items here. One, it was reported, I think, by Rich Cimini, that Tyrod Taylor is expected to take over as the starting quarterback. Two, there are endless, and I mean endless, Woody Johnson quotes from like, I think it was an owners meeting here today, where he's like, "Yeah, if we completed a pass, it would look better." And hey, if you look at other quarterbacks like Justin Fields across the league, then our head coach would have similar results to what he's having right now. Again, I always say this, bad teams stay bad because of ownership. And I'm not saying that moving off of Justin Fields is the bad decision here. It's an owner saying stuff like that. It's an owner making these hires. It's an owner being a part of the quarterback that they choose. You don't think Woody Johnson had a say in Justin Fields coming to the team? Of course he did.

You know, and then it's also the owner throwing your quarterback, who's still on the roster and has guaranteed money heading into the next year, under a bus.

How is that going to fare with other players that want to come into your organization? You know? And there's also all the other stuff about factoring in Madden grades and so on and so forth that Woody Johnson has been a part of. So, again, bad teams stay bad, and no one, I think, has a worse record since 2019 in the NFL than the New York Jets.

You summed it up perfectly. You don't hear owners talk on players currently on the team. And for Fields, everyone likes him like the person. It seems like he works hard, and all of his teammates love Justin Fields. He's just not very good as a starting quarterback in the NFL. But yeah, I, I found those quotes shocking. Um, also, is that a sign that Aaron Glenn is just going to get another year, no matter what? Like,

Yeah, because they hug after every game. He, he and Aaron Glenn hug after every game, he said.

Okay. Well, I think we're probably going to get another year of that. And I think that would be a sign of questionable ownership because I think Aaron Glenn has not been handling everything very well either. And there's not, like, there's not scheme, like defensive scheme reasons that I'm thinking are looking promising for the Jets either. So, and then also Breece Hall, like asking for a trade and like indirectly on social media, but the team said that they're not going to trade him. Well, it seems like this would be a good time to trade Breece Hall, but at the same time, has Breece Hall done enough where other, like, is he for sure an NFL starter upgrade for a lot of teams? I don't know. And then the other part of that is Brilin Allen just opted for surgery, and so highly doubt he comes back at all this season, which makes sense when you're 0 and seven.

But if then you do trade Breece Hall, which on one hand makes sense because it's a contract year, and it sounds like it's just kind of all bad behind the scenes with him and this team moving forward.

Yeah.

On the other hand, if you trade him, then it's literally just Isaiah Davis left and Kane and Wong Wu, our guy in the backfield. And so what then is Isaiah Davis going to play every single snap on offense?

He has the size and the athletic traits, and then also his production. Now we're talking about what, Division III or whatever it is. Um, but I think he could do it on an 0-8 team. Like, why not? Breece Hall, the vibes don't seem great for Breece Hall, and it's kind of been reported that way for for a long time, too. So, right. Uh, I would start getting rid of players like him. Breece Hall also just like has not looked like a real difference-maker the entire year, and I think he's playing through some injuries, and he had a brutal, brutal pass protection rep at the end of the game. And then Tyrod Taylor, he knows, he probably knows the offense better and is a better fit for whatever scheme. But I mean, he's 36, and he just, I mean, it is what it is.

Yes. Again, we talk about this sometimes after one season, sometimes after two, where these teams have plans of what they want the organization to look like, like heading into a season and through the first eight games and all that type of stuff. The Jets' plan just has not worked this year.

It goes back to the Rodgers contract, you know, and then trading for Davante Adams and all that. Like they were all in for the last couple years. You got to guess what? You got to pay the price. You have you added not a whole lot this offseason.

Ownership.

Yeah.

It's ownership. Buying it.

Making all of these decisions. Pittsburgh Steelers, speaking of Aaron Rodgers, again, had a howitzer at times, just launching these passes down the field, including the Hail Mary at the end of 70 yards. Uh, Arthur Smith gets some crap because it's not like many other offenses out there. And while it can be frustrating for us to know which players to start, that goes for the running back room, that goes for the other wide receivers, and that goes specifically for tight ends. If you just look at these games, he is doing some cool stuff out there.

He makes a difference. Yes.

Yes. And it really goes to the tight end usage. Obviously, Pat Freiermuth goes nuclear here, but he's also weaponizing a 300-pound tight end in Darnell Washington, who just looks six feet taller than whatever defensive back he's facing off against. It's pretty fun. Yeah, I think it's well said, like he's going to get head coaching interviews, and we'll see if he gets another shot at it there. His offense has some fun wrinkles. Um, I mean,

But unfun press conferences if we get another head coaching gig here for Arthur Smith.

Definitely. That's part of that's part of the whole thing. Um, yeah, he's a fascinating guy. The Rodgers stuff, there's some pros to his game. There's obviously very obvious weaknesses as well. Well, this is a team that's trying to find a secondary wide receiver to to add to the team as well. So, we'll see. For fantasy purposes, the big one was Jaylen Warren going back to the Jaylen Warren role from early in the game, early in the season. So, they got Kenneth Gainwell going a little bit in the first half, but in the second half, it was all Jaylen Warren.

Really surprised me.

Yeah. But it was at 15.4 fantasy points expected, yep, in the four healthy games, and he was like back to being a, not a bell cow, but like a very clear 1A. So, that was very promising if you have Jaylen Warren.

That was a misread by me because I felt that when he missed that game and Kenny Gainwell came in and did so well that Arthur Smith couldn't help himself to make it a split back, which they did turn into, and then he went back immediately to it. So, it goes into the unpredictability that Arthur Smith brings to the table. Two more teams, Tennessee Titans. I'll admit it, really for the first time, I didn't have the strength to go back and watch this one. I'm sorry, Titans fans.

I mean, they probably don't want us talking about them anyways. Uh, I'll quickly say, uh, the last two games, um, with Ty Spears, like actually healthy, it's been a pretty even split between him and Pard, and then Elijah Moore had an opportunity to make some noise and really didn't get the ball very much. So, they've hit rock bottom. Ty Lockett asked for his release. Um,

And

which adds to the long list of legends that have suited up for the Titans towards the end of their career. I mean, you can go to Randy Moss, you can go to Andre Johnson, you can go to Julio Jones, uh, although Alge Crumpler as well. Does that name mean anything to you? Alge Crumpler.

Yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah.

Uh, yeah, I mean, the Titans are like the final pit stop before the end of the road for many of these.

Do you think he sold a house in Nashville? Nashville housing market's been popping off recently. Do you think Ty Lockett sold a house down? Nashville is like the reason why he picked Tennessee.

Yeah, he saw all these Instagram reels or got targeted of like, oh, the housing bubble is about to burst, and he's like, "Now's the time for me to do this."

Last, last chance. So, pay attention to the housing market. See which team he's going to land on next.

Let's talk Washington Commanders to end this thing. Uh, some actually positive news, but I'm never sure how to interpret this type of stuff through different outlets because it only came from the head coach, where they said that the Jaden Daniels hamstring was not that big of a deal and that he's considered day-to-day. Uh, again, this is on the right leg, whereas it was a left knee injury prior to this. Again, the team is three and four right now, and who knows what happens when Jaden Daniels does come back, but like, you just look at their schedule, and it's very easy to see them at three and seven. I mean, they face the Chiefs, the Seahawks, and the Lions over the next three weeks. Uh, I just don't think they're making the playoffs this year.

The Commanders are projected for 18.5 points right now. So, people with money on it do not think that he's going to play. So, uh, most hamstring injuries are not available the next week. So, I'm guessing he's not going to play. It's going to be Marcus Mariota. Um, and then we'll see about Debo and Terry McLaurin. Like, those injuries have kind of lingered themselves. So, it's too early to tell. Marcus Mariota's been a quarterback one though whenever he's had an opportunity to make starts.

He does get Spags this week.

Spags had some nasty, nasty things against the Raiders. I mean,

Yeah. Um, question for you, and again, this is binding for the rest of time.

Okay.

We've seen it in two straight offseasons now, where players with contract issues in training camp then go on to either very, very, very slow starts or just downright get injured, you know, as they kind of get in game shape and ramp up for that. Uh, we can go with, and you know, I'm not saying they're all equal and all the same, but you know, you had the CeeDee Lamb stuff last year, you had Brandin Cooks, uh, Terry McLaurin, both.

I'm forgetting others. Yes.

Could we ever, like, get to a place where, individual be damned, we should just avoid these players that miss all of training camp for contract purposes?

Well, I think for the team side, like this is obvious, like why not just sign him on August 1st? Like, why try to, why wait? Like, you're arguing over nothing. Like, you're not waiting for the next big contract. The other big contracts have already happened. Just, it should be, it's on the team to just handle the stuff in August before things like, or like early August, late July. Like, let the big contract happen and then sign these players early. There's just no reason. If you're going to sign them on August 30th, sign them on August 1st. Like, what, what's the freaking point? You're arguing over $2 million, and the cap numbers are in the hundreds of millions of dollars each year, and you can spread these contracts out. Like, $4 million does not matter when you're talking about your best players. So, I think it is a real thing, and I, it's not the reason why Terry McLaurin got injured. Was his odds of being injured higher? Absolutely. So, I think it should be kind of priced in. Maybe let's say it's August 15th. You get two or three full weeks of ramping things up, then we're probably back to a baseline. But I think it's like inexcusable and just bad team philosophy to wait as long as they do.

Because it's somewhat of a new phenomenon, at least anecdotally for me, because, you know, the CBA, you can't miss games anymore, period. So, these guys are going to sign. Yet now they're holdouts, and the only leverage that they have is missing all of training camp, but then we have seen just big slow starts and injuries off of them and

Makes sense.

Terrible fantasy assets because of it in many ways. So,

Yeah, we should, we, it should be absolutely priced in moving forward. Um, not that they're going to miss games contractually, like you said, but just the injury rates do start to make sense. Like, August 15th, we should have said, "All right, who's sitting out? Let's start making some tweaks."

Final part, uh, Chris Rodriguez did have a meaningless touchdown this past game, but Bill Corum Merritt is owning the backfield now, which is cool to see, and he's breaking tackles and all that type of stuff. So, I'm still buying Bill the rest of the way. It probably would be better if, and I don't know if it actually might be better with Jaden Daniels versus Marcus Mariota. Obviously, they'll be projected for more points with Jaden Daniels, but they might rely on him a bit more often now, too.

But he's also pretty game-script dependent right now, and they're expected to lose by 10 points, so it could be another kind of tough week. But there, there will be a point where you should buy back in on Bill, you know, if you can.

Yep.

All right, that does it. If you watch this entire thing, thank you. Leave a thumbs up, even a comment down below. Uh, appreciate you all tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow with running back rankings ahead of week eight, and the trade show is back on Thursday. So, see you all then. Up, develop. Talk to you all soon. See?