Transcription
In this moment, what is this? The political future is hanging by a thread. In this situation, when he goes to talk to Trump, face to face, he must have something in mind. It's not to invite America to come and attack Iran like last time. That's probably not it. But this time, in this situation, he has problems. This time, there is an election which will happen no later than October, at the end of October. If he loses, his future will be extinguished. Israeli politics, it appears that someone said, said that if there is a survey, that people support Israel in going to war, whether it's with small or big entities, what has happened, there were supporters at what level? It went up to 90%. This shows that Israelis are concerned about their own survival and think that going to war, in an offensive manner, is the way to survive. For Trump, as far as I can see his demeanor, he is very close to Netanyahu. The fact that Netanyahu went to meet him, I can guess that it means he has a plan to do something. And if it comes out, it will make Iran unhappy, and there will be even more severe responses. Looking at it, Trump is dragging it on. It depends on who dies first. Both are in critical condition. It depends on who dies first. Our goal is to take this channel to 1 million subscribers. We are currently in the process of destroying the current world order. Therefore, at the international level, it is very dangerous. And if you don't want to miss good content, please subscribe. For the past 2 years, our financial institution system has remained strong, we will not be in a bad situation. For those who want to upgrade their knowledge in depth, we now have YouTube Membership. Just subscribe, and you will receive exclusive content and seminars from TRP and Team Business Tomorrow. Iran is now in a desperate situation. If it were me, after the 9th, I would have to show my strength. After showing strength on the 9th, it means fighting primarily over the Strait of Hormuz. Now, if we look at this, the map that I sent, picture 3, you will see this map is interesting. Because right now, as I've told you before, the Strait of Hormuz, the middle part, between Iran above and Oman below, the part in the middle, which is the original channel, which has been used since before the war, Iran has laid mines there. Therefore, when ships enter and exit, they have to deviate to the upper channel, the one on the upper edge, in the squiggly yellow line, the yellow line, or the lower channel, which is in the red oval network. The upper channel is Iran's, the lower channel is Oman's. Now, America, in the past, has coordinated with Oman and opened the lower channel. And Trump himself tried to issue social media posts, telling cargo ships that they could pass through the lower channel, and that the lower channel was safe, and that there were no mines. It turned out that ships that passed before did not pass because Iran was still attacking with drones continuously. Later, after signing the MOU, America realized that if the MOU was signed, Iran would not attack. So they organized ships into convoys, sailing continuously, perhaps 3 or 4 ships at a time, sailing out. They would send aircraft to hover, both for situational control, fast planes, slow planes, and for refueling, to escort the continuous convoy of 3 or 4 ships, so that they could pass through the Oman channel safely. It turned out that what has happened can be seen in this picture. Most recently, most of the ships that passed, they passed through Iran's route, which is the yellow line, right? Which, in that line, it is said that the ships involved are linked to Iran, linked to the UAE, linked to Singapore, in that channel. However, there are some ships, if you observe, in the two oval circles below, those are the ships that America forced to pass, to pass through the south. Now, you can take this picture down. Now, looking at it this way, if Iran wants to start, to create new pressure, they will have to find a way to make ships passing through Oman's channel stop, not pass. We will have to see how they will do it. There are many ways to do it. Perhaps it won't be necessary to send drones to attack like before. Perhaps they can send drones to attack, or perhaps, as far as I can see, there is a way to jam GPS. That can cause complications. Or threaten them. Or another way, which might be more severe, is to declare an area for exercises and send drones to that point, to block the front and back of Oman's channel, something like that. We will have to see next week if Iran starts to return, it will come out in a way that it will block the south, and the north, once it can be opened, Iran will tell America that if by now, the 6 billion dollars that they said would come, has not come, then I will collect this, this fee, this service fee for ships passing through. So, based on this, I see that the risk of escalation of tension next week is quite high.
Yes, but if Iran returns to using pressure measures by operating in the Strait of Hormuz this time, will the outcome change? Because now the world seems to have hope that this area should be used for transport, and we have gradually seen America's allies participating, such as France. Will Iran's operations this time not be as easy as before, Professor?
Certainly. Iran's operations, if they want to increase pressure, it will be pressure because they themselves have agreed and signed MOUs to some extent. Therefore, they will have to create a scene, create a situation, that comes out in a way that it doesn't look like they are the villains, but in the end, I think they will stand by the principle that they are not the ones who attacked Israel first, they are not the ones who opened fire on America first.
These two countries, out of the blue, attacked them. And attacked them continuously for many days, using bombs, and hitting tens of thousands of points, until their assets were damaged. And after being damaged, the estimated value was 300 billion. And they said they would bring investment. Right now, it looks like even their own money, Iran's own money that was frozen, they are not willing to release. Therefore, looking at it from this perspective, I think they will try to create reasons, and create excuses, reasons, necessities, so that the world sees that they have been wronged. And the fact that they have to close the Strait of Hormuz again, it will be seen as a consequence. Iran's difficulty will be in creating legitimacy. If we go back, if Iran was not attacked, and it wasn't that within the first day or two, their leaders were decapitated, and after that, they were not bombed until everything was severely damaged like this. If Iran, out of the blue, when the world was peaceful, jumped in and controlled the Strait of Hormuz, the world would definitely not accept it. But when something happened to Iran, it's as if America, Trump, opened a special door for Iran. And once this is opened, I don't think Iran will back down easily. It's just that if they don't back down, and if you ask how to pressure them so that ships cannot pass through Oman's channel effectively, it can be done because Iran still has a lot of power to send drones. And just sending 10 or 20 drones a day, even if it's just a threat, just announcing it like this, and announcing today, sending 5 drones to this point, 5 drones to that point. If they send them every 2-3 days, every day, insurance companies will not accept it. It will just cause tension with America again.
Yes, but Professor, do you think Iran will only pressure America by closing the Strait of Hormuz, and not escalate to using military force in other areas, or not intend to cause a war to fight again?
I think Iran has been hurt a lot. Therefore, what they will do now is just enough to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps they will involve the buffer zone. We will have to wait and see. But in this manner, I think they will act in a limited way. Even America, America attacked Iran, and it appears that some of their offensive weapons, missiles for attack, from America, some stocks have been sold by half. They have used a lot against Iran. For many things, it will take 3 years, 5 years to produce them again, looking at the production speed that exists now.
Yes.
Therefore, if they attack again, the stock that is only 50% left will be further depleted. The military will not be very happy.
What about the impact on the global economy, Professor? The last time the Strait of Hormuz was closed, oil prices rose by more than 30%, exceeding $120. Now it has returned to where it was before the war. Will the new closure cause oil prices to skyrocket again? If they close it, it must skyrocket. If they close it, it means they want it to skyrocket. And when it skyrockets, it creates pressure. We can only hope that if it skyrockets, in terms of Iran, they will need to make it skyrocket as high as they can. We can only hope that it won't be too long, because if it's just for a short period, the global economy might be able to cope.
And what is your assessment of this round, Professor? We are not yet sure how absolute the closure will be, and what the impact on oil prices will be. What should the world prepare for in the next few days?
If it closes, and let's say everything is resolved by July. If it's resolved by July, it means Trump has conceded. In other words, okay, the 6,000 [dollars] that they said they would release, your money, let's do this, release it, but not into Iran's direct account. Release it into a neutral country, for example, into Qatar, with a verification process. Because now, they have been attacked, and they need to protect themselves from being accused, like Obama, who released money, or Biden, who released money, and was accused of making Iran use this money to build weapons. Therefore, they will say that if that's the case, if they can agree, then release the 6 billion dollars, and put it in Qatar's account. And the use must be only for buying food, buying medicine, for necessities. It must not be related to buying weapons. If that's the case, I think if Trump concedes, it might be enough to stabilize everything, and Iran might agree to release oil again. It can happen. But if they don't agree, and Trump drags it on, I think, looking at it this way, as I said, if Trump drags it on, oil prices will definitely run.
If Iran starts like this, oil prices will definitely run. Looking at it, the more Trump drags it on, it depends on who dies first.
Both are in critical condition. It depends on who dies first.
Yes. And regarding oil, Professor, how much do you estimate it could rise? During the previous turning point, it was $120. But if we ask about the extreme that Iran has mentioned, the IRGC has spoken of levels of $200. It probably won't reach $200. But I think this time, if Iran wants to be effective, they have to push it to rise quickly. And don't forget, the oil market, the futures market, has many people shorting, selling in advance.
A lot, historically a lot.
If there is an adjustment in the situation, the short covering will make the price jump. Therefore, it depends on whether the events that occur will make the economy in America and the politics, which were prepared to fight Iran blow by blow, perhaps soften, because oil prices in the world have jumped so high. The oil prices that Americans have to pay have jumped so high that internally they will say, "Let's compromise." But there is still an unknown factor. There is another unpredictable event, which is Netanyahu in Israel. That is very difficult to predict.
What part of Netanyahu is difficult to predict or scary enough to change this situation?
We have news that Netanyahu requested a one-on-one meeting with Trump. Trump accepted the appointment but said to come next week.
So, that's it. Waiting for events after...
The funeral ceremony.
Yes.
Netanyahu requested to talk to Trump, face to face. He must have something in mind. It's not to invite America to come and attack Iran like last time. That's probably not it. But this time, in this situation, he has problems. The poll numbers in the Israeli election, Netanyahu's popularity has dropped low. Currently, according to the polls, he is losing. Israeli politics is building sentiment within Israelis, voters. It appears that someone said that if there is a survey, that people support Israel in going to war, whether it's with small or big entities, what has happened, there were supporters at what level? It went up to 90%. This shows that Israelis are concerned about their own survival and think that going to war, in an offensive manner, is the way to survive. This is why Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity has decreased. Why? He is being challenged by the opposition, whose leader is named Gantz, who is tougher than Netanyahu. This might cause people to lean towards him. Therefore, in this situation, Netanyahu's political future is hanging by a thread. And if this time, the election, which will happen no later than October, at the end of October, if he loses, his future will be extinguished. So he will struggle. As for Trump, as far as I can see his demeanor, he is very close to Netanyahu. Why? His son-in-law, Jared Kushner, his father is Jewish, a millionaire in New York. It is reported that when Netanyahu travels to New York, he stays at the home of Trump's son-in-law's father. And the owner of the house has to come down, has to give the master bedroom to Netanyahu himself, and has to stay on another floor because of the full security. This shows that Trump has a deep relationship with Netanyahu through his son-in-law, and perhaps through philosophy, popularity, and preference. And some people say, I don't know if it's true or not, that he might be blackmailed in the case of Faustian, because Faustian is said to be an operation where Mossad, the Israeli intelligence agency, has embedded agents to obtain secrets of important political figures in the world, in America and other countries. So they can remember. All of this, the fact that Netanyahu requested a meeting, I can guess that it means he has a plan to do something. And if it comes out, it will make Iran unhappy, and there will be even more severe responses.
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