Transcription
Last night, as soon as the decision of the US Federal Reserve, or the Fed, was announced, I immediately knew that this matter was definitely not ordinary. The voting result came out as 9:3, with 3 hawkish committee members voting against it in the middle of the meeting, demanding an immediate interest rate hike of 0.25%, 25% for everyone. This is the first time in 10 full years, since 2016, that there have been 3 dissenting votes in the same direction like this. The situation is very tense right now. On one side, the Dow Jones index has plummeted by 1,100 points. If interest rates are raised again, there's a risk of a liquidity crisis. On the other side are the insiders who are pressuring from behind, and the inflation figures are still not coming down. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has only been in office for less than 9 weeks; his seat hasn't even warmed up yet, but he has to bear all this pressure and announce that interest rates will remain unchanged, without backing down even an inch. But what's more interesting is the market's movement. Everyone in the market thought that with such a hawkish or strict outcome, gold prices would surely collapse. But do you know the result? As soon as the decision came out, gold prices shot up in a straight line, reaching a high of $4,116, then dropped in a V-shape to $4,043, and then rose again, leaving investors on both the buying and selling sides utterly bewildered. Why did the hawkish rhetoric all night long result in gold prices rising? I am confident that 99% of people in the market did not hear the whispers hidden in his words. At the end of the last clip, I promised everyone that whether this decision caused prices to break through resistance or fall through support, I would explain it clearly to everyone in this clip. There will be no beating around the bush, absolutely not. Today, I am not only fulfilling that promise, but I will also reveal details that 99% of people in the market cannot see. Today, we will delve into 3 main points.
First, I will point out the important price ranges for gold, both upside and downside. If the price rises, where will the first target be? And if the price falls, where is the strong support level like steel? I will make it clear. Second, we will decode the 3 sentences spoken last night, what signals are hidden behind each sentence. If you understand, you will know what the Fed's next move will be. And third, I will tell you why all financial institutions are now shouting to sell gold loudly, but at the same time, their hands are secretly buying gold into their portfolios quietly. The secrets hidden in this matter, I will expose them all today. Understanding these things is very important because it will allow you to see the direction amidst the fog of capitalism and enable you to walk more steadily and further than others. Many people who saw the decision and only saw that there were 3 dissenting votes quickly concluded that this was a sign of extreme hawkishness and that gold prices must fall. But they don't know that the Fed has certain rules that few people notice: the more internal conflict there is, the closer it gets to a policy shift. I have been in the precious metals trading industry for 20 full years. I have seen this happen countless times. When the opinions on the committee are very unanimous, it usually means that the policy is still in the middle stage and far from changing direction. But whenever dissenting voices start to increase, bringing internal conflicts clearly to the table, it proves that the most stringent period is about to pass.
Let me take everyone back in history for a moment. The last time there were 3 dissenting votes in the same direction, all calling for an immediate interest rate hike, was in 2016. At that time, the Fed also announced that interest rates would remain unchanged, and 3 hawkish members voted against it in the middle of the meeting, citing that inflation was rising and interest rates must be raised immediately, without further delay. At that time, the market was full of shouts that the Fed was very hawkish, that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates, that gold prices would collapse and fall below $1,000. But can everyone guess what happened next? After that meeting, not only did gold prices not fall, but they started a bull run that lasted for 2 full years. Prices soared from over $1,000 to over $1,300, and later broke through to $2,000. The price almost doubled. Those who were scared and forced to cut losses and sell at the bottom, later regretted it immensely. Why is this so? The answer is very simple. When the hawkish dissenters' voices are so numerous that they have to be brought to the table, it means that the hawkish side's power has been fully revealed. Those remaining in the council are the doves who prefer relaxation, or those who are neutral. From now on, it is impossible to be more hawkish. The policy can only gradually shift towards a more neutral stance. History may not repeat itself exactly, but it often follows the same rhythm. Do you all think this time it will follow the same script? And why did gold prices not fall this time but instead rise? Beyond the rule I just mentioned that the peak of hawkish dissent equals a policy shift, there is another reason that has a direct impact: the 3 sentences spoken at the press conference last night. Most people only heard the external hawkishness but did not hear the true signals hidden inside. This point is very important. He spoke one sentence, and the gold price on the board moved accordingly. If you understand these 3 sentences, you will not only know why the price moved that way last night, but you will also clearly see the direction of the Fed's policy for the next six months.
The first sentence. As soon as he came on stage, he made a decisive statement. He said that the 2% inflation target has no room for flexibility anymore, and if necessary, the Fed will not hesitate to act immediately. As soon as this statement left his mouth, gold prices immediately dropped by $5. It sounds extremely hawkish, doesn't it? But in reality, if you think about it carefully, these are words he intentionally said to the 3 hawkish committee members. He wanted to create a ladder for them to step down gracefully. The implied meaning is: "Look, I have already announced publicly that the 2% target is unshakable, and if necessary, I will raise interest rates. I am on your side. So, don't complain in the meeting. Don't let outsiders laugh at us." Then he immediately changed the topic. He said that from the last meeting until now, both nominal and real interest rates have risen significantly. The 30-year US Treasury yield has surged to 5.2%. Financial conditions have tightened on their own. This sentence is the real turning point of the press conference. As soon as this sentence ended, gold prices stopped falling and began to slowly rise. Let me translate difficult language into simple terms for you. What he meant was: "Why are you all complaining about raising interest rates every day? Why the rush? Look at how high long-term interest rates have gone. 30-year mortgage rates have exceeded 8%. The borrowing costs for companies are 2% higher than last year. Many small businesses are struggling to cope. The market tightening itself is more severe than me raising interest rates. Why should I jump out and play the villain, smash the stock market, and then take the blame? Why?" Many people might wonder at this point: "But we used to learn that if interest rates rise, gold prices should fall, right? Why did long-term yields surge so much this time, but gold prices rose instead?" I will tell everyone today that the surge in interest rates this time is not because people expect inflation to rise. It is because people around the world are selling US Treasury bonds. Everyone is worried about America's debt problem, worried about the credibility of the dollar. America's debt is approaching $36 trillion. Just the interest payments each year are $1 trillion. If they continue to borrow like this, everyone fears that the dollar will become worthless paper. Interest rates rising for these reasons are not a negative for gold, but the biggest positive. When people lose faith in the dollar, they turn to buying gold. This is the simplest and most natural principle.
And the most decisive sentence was the last one. Chairman Powell said that market participants must learn to watch the game, not just the referees. As soon as this sentence was spoken, gold prices were rapidly pulled up, breaking through $4,100 in one go. What does this mean? Previous Fed chairs, whether it was Ben Bernanke or Jerome Powell, liked to act as guides for the market, telling them whether interest rates would be lowered or raised. It was like a referee telling in advance when they would blow the whistle. So everyone just watched the referee's actions. But now, Chairman Powell has clearly stated: "I will not play this game anymore. Don't just stare at what I say. Don't stare at the referee's whistle. You must look at how the game is being played on the field. You must look at the real economic conditions." This statement, if heard superficially, sounds very harsh, as if he is saying: "I will no longer cater to the market. There will be no more money injections to prop up the market." But in reality, the hidden meaning is: "I will not raise interest rates haphazardly. You don't need to fool yourselves into being afraid for no reason. Do what you need to do. Don't try to guess my mind every day." For the past month, what has the market feared the most? It feared that Chairman Powell would be reckless, that as soon as he took office, he would blindly raise interest rates to fight inflation, causing the economy to collapse and gold prices to fall to just over $3,000. But the final result last night, even though he spoke hawkishly all night, actually, every word was filled with dovish signals. It's like when you were a student, and the teacher stood in front of the class with a cane, looking sternly at you, appearing frightening, as if they would break your hand. But when the teacher came closer, they whispered in your ear, so only the two of you could hear, "I won't hit you."
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Think about it, how would you feel: scared or happy? So, everyone, do you see that in the few hours before the decision was announced, gold prices were first hammered down once, briefly falling below $4,000, to shake off all the investors with weak hearts? Then, the price was driven up for a long time. This is the true behavior of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." For the past month, everyone has been afraid that Chairman Powell would unleash hawkishness, afraid that he would raise interest rates. These expectations and fears have been fully absorbed into gold prices long ago. When the actual decision came out and it was found that the most stringent situation was only this much, and even more relaxed than everyone expected, prices had to rise, which is normal. You must understand that Chairman Powell has only been in office for 2 months; his seat hasn't even warmed up yet. He would never start a war with the entire market from the beginning. And it's even more impossible for him to destroy the economy with his own hands. What he wants most right now is balance. It's to save face for the hawks a little, speak a bit sternly to keep them quiet, and at the same time, reassure the market that "I will not blindly raise interest rates. You don't need to panic." This kind of strategy, "hit the head and then rub the back," is something politicians have mastered. Only new retail investors who have just entered the market will be fooled by a few hawkish words, become terrified, and sell their holdings at the lowest possible prices.
By now, many friends must be wondering: What will be the price trend from now on? I will clearly outline the price ranges, both upside and downside, for everyone. Just remember these numbers and you don't need to stare at the screen all day, causing headaches and scaring yourselves for no reason. Let's start. If the price rises, the first resistance will be in the range of $4,150 to $4,200. This level has been heavily pressuring prices for the past month. There are many short-term investors stuck at this level because they bought at high prices. If the price reaches this point, there will likely be volatility. It's not that as soon as the price rises, you'll shout that the resistance has been broken. But if the price can stay above $4,200 stably for more than 3 days, it means this resistance has been completely destroyed. If that happens, the next resistance will be in the range of $4,380 - $4,500. When it reaches this point, those who were stuck around $4,450 in May and June of this year will start to get out of their losses, and the selling pressure will increase a bit. But if it can truly stay above $4,500, the situation will turn overwhelmingly positive for buyers.
But if the price collapses, the first support level is a round number at $4,000. This is the psychological defense line for the entire market right now. Whether it's the central bank waiting to buy here, financial institutions placing large buy orders, or even retail investors waiting to buy at a low price, everyone is waiting here. It will not be easily broken. But if it does slip and fall below $4,000, the next strong support will be at $3,900 to $3,950. And if it falls further, at $3,850, this is the steel bottom in the eyes of many investors and institutional financial institutions. Previously, UBS Bank had a target at this level. Now, many people want to buy at $3,850. If it falls to that point, buying pressure will surge to support the price immediately. Therefore, everyone, the safest strategy is to divide your purchases. The more the price falls, the more you should buy what you can accumulate at the lowest possible price. At most, you will only lose time waiting, but you will never lose capital. If you can patiently hold for half a year or a year, I guarantee that the profits will not be bad.
Now, I will tell everyone why all financial institutions are shouting that the market will fall, louder than anyone else, but their bodies are honest, secretly buying gold quietly. What is the truth hidden behind this? I can tell you that 99% of retail investors cannot see this game. Have you noticed this strange phenomenon? At this time, no matter which financial news website you open, you will only find news with a negative outlook on gold. For example, Goldman Sachs, in June, just lowered its year-end gold price target from $5,400 to $4,900, and declared that the gold bull market was over, and prices would fall to $4,500 in the second half of the year. But it turned out that in July, when gold prices fell around $4,000, they quietly adjusted their target back to $5,400 and said the bull market was not over. The target price changed twice in one month, more fickle than a child flipping through a book. JP Morgan is even more audacious. At the beginning of the year, they were shouting that gold prices would surge to $6,300 this year. By July, when prices fell slightly, they abruptly lowered their target to $4,500 and said the average price for the third quarter would be only $4,300. But less than 2 weeks later, they released a report saying that in the long term, gold remains bullish, and now is a golden opportunity to buy more. UBS Bank is no less. Last week, they said prices would fall to $3,850. This week, they said prices below $4,000 are a gold mine and recommended clients to buy more. Previously, Reuters surveyed 29 analysts, and the median target price for gold in 2026 was only $4,509. Each of them shouted competitively that prices would fall to $3,800, $3,500, acting as if gold prices would collapse tomorrow. But everyone, let's look at what these institutions are actually doing. Goldman Sachs' investment portfolio in July, when gold prices fell to $4,000, quietly bought more gold ETFs, up to over 2 million ounces. JP Morgan is also buying more gold mining stocks. They say the market will fall, but their actual behavior is buying more than anyone else. This is what it means when words don't match actions, and the body is honest. And why do they have to announce that prices will fall? The answer is to make you afraid. To make you willingly give up the gold in your hands and sell it at a cheap price, so they can buy those cheap holdings for themselves. This shallow trick has been played by Wall Street for 10 years. It only fools novice investors who have just entered the market. For seasoned investors, they are used to it and don't find it strange anymore. But the group that is even more honest than financial institutions are the central banks of each country. They are too lazy to explain to you. They just keep buying. I will give you a few sets of numbers, and you will understand. Central banks worldwide have been net buyers of gold for 16 consecutive years. During 2022-2024, they bought over 1,000 tons of gold for 3 consecutive years. In 2023, they bought 1,136 tons, setting a historical record. In 2025, they bought another 863 tons, the fourth highest in history. And in the first quarter of this year, they bought an additional 244 tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. What is even more shocking is that the proportion of gold in global foreign exchange reserves has now surpassed US Treasury bonds and become the number 1 reserve asset. This is the first time since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. How significant is the meaning of this? I want everyone to think about it. The World Gold Council's survey also clearly shows that 89% of central banks plan to buy more gold in the next 12 months, and 45% plan to significantly increase their holdings. This is the highest proportion in history. The People's Bank of China alone bought 14.93 tons in June, the largest monthly purchase in this 20-month cycle. The more prices fall, the more they buy, regardless of how many bad news the media reports. The National Bank of Poland is no less crazy. Last month, they bought 18.5 tons. In the first half of the year, they bought 82 tons. They are not just buying; they are also quietly transporting gold that was deposited in their vaults in London back to their own countries. The governor of their central bank announced that they will increase the proportion of gold in their foreign exchange reserves to 20%, which is currently only 11%. This means they will continue to buy more from now on. There are also Singapore, India, Russia. Are there any of these countries that are not taking advantage of the falling prices to buy more? Previously, India tried to retrieve over 400 tons of gold deposited with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, but the US refused. They didn't complain. They turned back to buying in the global market calmly, without wasting time arguing. The World Gold Council once said something very straightforward: "The gold market today, the facade is that Westerners are voting with their feet, walking away, but behind the scenes, smart money is using cash to buy more." You can see that externally, it seems like Western ETFs are selling off, short-term hedge funds are profiting from the downturn, and everyone seems to think gold prices will fall. But in reality, the investment portfolios of giant institutions on Wall Street have been quietly accumulating at low prices for a long time. They just use their mouths to spread bad news to scare retail investors from competing to buy cheap. It's just that. Those who truly sell are retail investors who like to chase prices when they rise and cut losses when they fall, and short-term speculative funds. But the real long-term investment capital, including national central banks, whether from the East or the West, are all taking advantage of the falling prices to buy. From Europe to Asia, from national central banks to ordinary citizens, the more prices fall, the more aggressively they buy. Look at gold shops around the world, whether it's the gold shop streets in China, markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, or even the gold market in Dubai. During this time, gold bars or gold coins sold by weight per gram are selling like hotcakes, selling better than when gold prices broke $5,000. Conversely, gold jewelry with fixed, very high prices is being ignored. Everyone is smart and sees that at times like this, buying gold for investment is the most worthwhile. The World Gold Council's report clearly states that during a gold bull market, a correction of 30-35% is very normal. Since 2000, gold has never had a history of prices falling for 2 consecutive years. The current price drop is just a squeeze of the bubble, not a trend reversal. Wait until Westerners sell everything, and gold prices will automatically surge.
To be honest, I have been in the precious metals trading industry for 20 full years. I have seen countless peaks and troughs. Today, I will ask you a simple question. Have you ever seen a major peak where everyone was enthusiastically buying more as prices fell? What should a true peak look like? It must be when everyone is shouting in unison that gold prices will surge to $10,000. It must be when the aunt who goes grocery shopping only talks about her gold profits. It must be when gold shops are so crowded that you can barely get in, and everyone is scrambling to buy, even people who have never thought of buying gold in their lives jump in to share the profits. And now? The media is only reporting bad news. Financial institutions are only saying prices will fall. Retail investors are so scared they dare not touch it. Those who can't hold on are forced to cut losses and sell. Only central banks and long-term capital are quietly buying. Are you telling me this is a peak? This is clearly the characteristic of a bottom or a low point. Many friends might argue in their minds: "I understand everything you've said, but the problem is that gold prices are just fluctuating back and forth and not rising. I'm holding gold, watching other assets surge every day, and I'm going crazy with anxiety. If I can't hold on anymore, what should I do?" I will tell you the truth: 90% of investors do not lose to the market in this kind of bottom-building fluctuation; they lose to their own patience. More people disappear before dawn than those who are truly stuck at a high point. Many people misunderstand and think that this kind of fluctuation and base building is a sign that gold has lost its momentum to rise, but in reality, you are greatly mistaken. Fluctuation and base building do not mean it cannot rise, but it is the intention of the big players to suppress the price from rising. The purpose is to break your patience and shake off all the indecisive investors. Look at the current situation, is it really like that? Every day, prices move up and down by only a few tens of dollars. When they rise, they don't rise enough; when they fall, they don't fall deep enough. It's like boiling a frog in warm water, slowly boiling it, squeezing you until you can't stand it anymore and think, "Forget it, let's switch to playing with other assets that move faster." And as soon as you decide to sell, the price will surge so rapidly that you can never catch up.
And why do they have to clear the board like this? The reason is very simple. The big players will never drive up the price to let a huge number of retail investors profit easily. They must clear out almost all retail investors before they are willing to drive up the price. This is the unchanging truth of investment for decades. There are still many people who think the current situation is very bad, that the gold bull market is over. But if you look back at history, you will find that the current situation is exactly the same as when prices hit a major low of $1,615 in 2022. They are identical, as if from the same mold. At that time, the Fed was aggressively raising interest rates, real interest rates were soaring continuously, and everyone was in unison saying that gold prices would fall to $1,200 and that the bull market was over. At that time, Western ETFs were heavily sold off, and short positions in hedge funds reached a record high. Everyone was looking to speculate on the downside. And at that time, central banks worldwide also adopted the strategy of "the more it falls, the more they buy," buying up to 136 tons in one year, breaking world records. Even the emotions of people in the market at that time were exactly the same. Everyone felt hopeless, felt that gold would never rise again, and vowed not to get involved with gold anymore. But what was the final result? Three years later, prices surged from $1,615 to $5,600, an increase of more than 3 times. Those who cut losses at the bottom must have been slapping their knees until they were bruised. And what is most interesting is that many people fear that the base-building fluctuation will take too long and think that the longer it takes, the worse it is. But in reality, it's the opposite. The longer it takes to build a base, the stronger and more stable the base will be, and in the future, it will be able to surge even higher. Look at 2022. It took a full half year to build a base and break patience, and then prices surged 3 times. Or in 2018, it took 9 months to build a base, and then prices surged more than 2 times. Why is this so? Because the longer it takes to build a base, the more people are shaken off. Stocks and gold will be concentrated in the hands of a small group of people. When it's time for them to drive up the price, it will be easier and smoother, and the price will be able to surge further. So, don't rush. The most you can do with what you can accumulate in the bottom area is to lose time waiting, but you will never lose money. Instead of staring at the screen every day, causing headaches and tormenting yourself, it's better to delete the app. Go to work, live your life as usual, wait for half a year or a year to pass, and then come back and check again. You will find that the suffering you are experiencing now is almost meaningless.
Finally, I reiterate that all content is for market observation and information sharing only, not investment advice. This is Goh. I wish all of you the strength to stand firm and maintain your wealth amidst the fierce waves of capitalism to welcome your golden age. See you in the next clip. Goodbye.