Transcription
And hello everyone and welcome to Vision Crypto on this Sunday, September 28, 2025, with this map that is not necessarily very, very beautiful. Anyway, we've had a rather "in the fetal position" week. Look, if I switch to the weekly view, we are really deep in the red. We've taken a relative beating on Ethereum, on BTC, and therefore on altcoins as we can indeed see here. So, we're seeing a lot of "Is this the end of the bull run?" Well, that's what we're going to try to determine in today's daily. I'm going to show you some indicators that, for me, tell me, spoiler alert, that no, we are not at the end of the bull run. In any case, that's my belief, and I'm going to show you what makes me say that, for me, we are not at the end of the cycle at all. And firstly, the first thing to do is to simply look at our friend BTC. Have we currently broken any lows that call into question the structure of BTC as well? Well, firstly, no, not at all. We see that we are just taking a breath from the last move here, and we could well return to the long RLZ that is here. I remind you that RLZs are reload zones. So, we could very well come back here and then go back up. We just have liquidity to recover in this zone. It's a reload zone. We are not breaking important lows. The important lows are these ones. For example, we shouldn't go below 98,000, which is here. So, for the moment, frankly, no worries. If we start breaking 98K here, well, I might reconsider, but for now, the fact is that we are still a little bit far from it. We are about 10K from the price, and we have this large reload zone with a lot of liquidity to recover. So, for me, for the moment, I have no concerns. The second factor that makes me say that we are not at the market top at all is simply: have you experienced euphoria? Have we been in extreme greed? Firstly, here, currently, we are in fear at 34, and especially, have we really been in extreme greed? Well, no, not at all. You see here, we haven't been in extreme greed at all, at all. It's just here. You see, we were there? Yes. When? Well, at the end of 2024. That's true, at the end of 2024, anyway, all the altcoins exploded, we know that well. We can see it here, that everyone was indeed in greed, and we can also see it here. Look at the open interest, and you see, well, when we are in orange, it means that everyone has long leverage, meaning that it's really euphoria, and we can see here that we had it in November and December 2024, indeed. So yes, we had it, but in 2024, it was relatively early, and since 2024, well, we've had a correction for BTC, and we've also made new ATHs. We've also recovered a lot of dominance on BTC. Look, here, we were in 2024. Here, I'm looking at the market cap of BTC dominance, and we pumped very hard afterwards. So, naturally, that made the whole market crash because BTC corrected, and by recovering dominance, altcoins took an extreme hit. Currently, what are we doing? Well, we are coming back down. We are still at 58% BTC dominance. That's still too much. There hasn't been a real liquidity outflow into Ethereum and altcoins. Yes, there has been a little bit, but there's still a big, big part that needs to be distributed. And you see my target, you know it, it's been there for a while. For me, we will reach 40 to 42% here. So, there is still enormous room for BTC dominance to fall, and therefore a liquidity outflow from BTC to Ethereum and from Ethereum to altcoins. Now, we know, we are in an institutional cycle, and so we are asking ourselves a lot of questions: "Will we have a real altcoin season?" As we experienced in 2017 and 2021, well, it would be lying if I could give you a calm answer. Currently, well, what we see is that BTC and Ethereum are taking a lot of liquidity. We have some large market caps like Solana, for example, XRP, Avalanche, Link, which are currently taking a share of the market as well. But will we have an altcoin season where all altcoins, anyway, not all altcoins will explode, but where a majority of altcoins will explode upwards, for example? Will we have mid-cap and small-cap coins that will explode upwards, or will only the top 50 altcoins really explode? That, again, is a big question mark, and we will only know at the end of the cycle, when we enter a bear market, we will have seen what has exploded or not. Well, for the moment, I think we will still have a liquidity outflow into altcoins, and there will certainly be liquidity outflows into both mid-cap and low-cap coins. Now, institutional money. We know very well that they will mainly stay on BTC, Ethereum, and potentially large caps like, well, like we said, Link, Avalanche, perhaps, Polkadot, Dot, XRP, Solana, in short, the most well-known ones. So, I'll quickly go back to the fact that we haven't been in extreme greed, and I remind you that the bear market happens when everyone has been in extreme greed. So, when everyone is in euphoria, thinking that it will never turn around, well, the big players usually take their profits while the small ones keep buying, keep buying, keep buying. So, indeed, it continues to pump a little afterwards, but it's in the euphoria zone that the bear market is created. Currently, well, we are not there at all, look here, we are even quite far from extreme greed. So, to make a top now, well, I don't see the point at all. I wouldn't understand. After, you know, the market is made to surprise, but currently, well, the data tells me that not at all. We are not at a top. Also, you know, I look at the CBBI, I've talked about it several times, a grouping of 9 indicators. We are at 73 currently, so we are relatively far, you know, from 90, between 80 and 90. We reached the level of 80 here, 83, but we are still relatively far from the top. Every time we've made tops, you see, we've gone into the 90s, beyond 90. 90, 94, 96, we can see it here. Here, we even reached 100. So, you see well that, well, currently we are not there at all, we haven't passed 90 at all in this cycle. When we reach 90 on the CBBI, well, clearly, I would say that we are potentially close, very close to a market top. But for the moment, once again, that's not the case. And of course, I will tell you when it is the case. So, by the way, don't hesitate to click on the subscribe button if you don't want to miss any future videos. Alright, let's continue with the whales. Look, we can see that addresses between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC. So, these are really the big whales. We can see that, well, currently they are selling. We see that there are fewer and fewer wallets that have so much BTC. So, we really see that they are selling currently. And so, one might think, well, Romain, that's good, they are selling. And so, well, you're proving to us that potentially we are at a market top. So, firstly, these are the big, big whales. So, yes, we see that they are selling, but if we go down a little, we can see that between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, well, that's still huge. We can see that currently, well, they are not selling, they are not moving at all, or they are even accumulating a tiny bit. But you see, it remains relatively small, almost. I would say that we are in stagnation, we are not moving. And if we go down a little further, between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which are still whales, mind you. Personally, I am very, very far from having between 100 and 1,000 BTC. So, you understand that it's quite a sum. Well, we see that these portfolios between 100 and 1,000 BTC are exploding. Look at this. How it's exploding, exploding, exploding. So, we have, you see, mega big whales, the first graph we saw, who are selling. So, firstly, well, they are selling to other whales, like those who accumulate between 100 and 1,000 BTC, because we see that there are more and more of them. We see the wallets between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC who are not moving currently. And if we were at the end of the cycle, believe me, they would be selling too. And especially, we wouldn't see whales between 100 and 1,000 BTC accumulating so much, because here, there is a real, a real accumulation. It's absolutely enormous. And so, who is absorbing the BTC from the mega big whales? Here, between 10,000 and 100,000, there are firstly the small portfolios, the small whales, so to speak, the small whales, not the small portfolios, the small whales between 100 and 1,000 BTC, but not only. There are, as you also know, the institutions, and we can see it here, look at the holdings of Spot Bitcoin ETFs compared to the BTC supply. And we see well that, well, the institutions, or rather the ETFs, own more and more BTC. We see it here, we were around 4%, a little over 4.70%. Today, we are at 7.41%, so almost double. So, we see well that, well, the big whales are selling, particularly to institutions, and we can also see it here. Look at the accumulation. Here, we are talking in billions. Here, we were in September 2024 at around 50 billion, and today, we are at 162 billion. So, it's really nothing comparable. Institutions have tripled the money they have in BTC since September 2024. 50 billion to 162 billion. So, you see that there is indeed a buyback of the BTC being sold by the mega big whales by institutions and ETFs. Also, there is something else. There are today companies that create strategic treasury reserves, like the best known, we know it well, Michael Saylor's strategy, who owns over 600,000 BTC. Imagine that, it's absolutely enormous. We also have MicroStrategy, which is accumulating a lot, a lot of BTC, and then, well, we have many other companies that are accumulating, that are making BTC treasury reserves, and therefore are also buying back the BTC from the mega big whales. So, yes, there is selling from the big whales, but we see well that it is completely bought back by, on the one hand, institutions, on the other hand, smaller whales between 100 and 1,000 BTC, and also companies that create strategic BTC reserves. So, once again, seeing the big whales selling here is not a problem at all. What we will need to watch out for, however, is if, for example, between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, they start selling very strongly, then yes, we will have to start asking questions too. And between 100 and 1,000 BTC, it's the same. If we see the curve drop sharply, we will also have to ask questions. Alright, there is one last thing, one last element that makes me say that we are not at the end of the bull run. It's this one. Look at this. We've also just made a new ATH on the total stablecoin supply, 293 billion dollars. I keep showing it to you on the charts, and particularly on USDT. Look at this. In one week again, we've printed 2 billion USDT. So, we are really exploding in terms of stablecoins. And so, from the moment we explode in stablecoins, well, it means that there is liquidity that can potentially enter the market strongly. In any case, it is ready to be used, and so we cannot have a lot of stablecoins and not be in a bear market phase. What we should see here, if there had been a profit-taking and then a bear market, well, we should have first seen a big drop here in market caps. Why? Well, because USDT would have been used to buy, for example, Bitcoin, Ethereum, anything and everything. You know, you can buy anything you want with stablecoins. Any cryptocurrency. So, we should have seen a big drop, and particularly here, I'm looking at USDT, so a lot of USDT used to buy cryptocurrencies. So, we should have seen a big dump, and then a big, big, big bullish surge. Why? Well, simply because, well, people would have taken profits, so they would have sold their BTC, their Ethereum, their altcoins to put them back into stablecoins, and then we would have seen another drop in the USDT market cap. Why? Because people would have exchanged their stablecoins for fiat currency, so we would have had a dump in the USDT market cap. Currently, what are we doing? Well, look, we are just going in a straight line, we pump, we pump, we pump. There you go. So, clearly, there is no ambiguity about the fact that there is a lot of stablecoin liquidity available currently, and that, well, the dumps we are seeing currently will be bought back, particularly with all the liquidity in stablecoins. So, this too, from the moment we have stablecoin market caps that are only going up, only ATHs, only ATHs. Well, clearly, this is also an indicator that we are not at a market top. Also, I could talk about Uncle Powell, who will probably continue to lower interest rates. So, well, naturally, that will also make the market pump. So, you see that there are quite a few parameters that make me say, in any case, for me, that no, we are not at the end of the bull run. I think we can really explode in October, November, December. Perhaps late October, November, and December, but I think we can really explode, and in 2 months, just November and December, we can truly work miracles. It only takes a very short time. You know that the market can move very, very quickly. It just takes, well, precisely, all the liquidity that is in stablecoins to be distributed, a lot of buying in BTC, Ethereum, and the various altcoins, for it to go very, very fast. That's it, team. So, currently, yes, it's complicated. Once again, you have to be patient. We've understood that in this bull run, patience was the watchword. So, do I remain confident, once again, about the bull run, that we will have a last bullish phase? Well, you have the answer, yes, of course. Now, we'll see what happens in the future. Of course, there can still be many elements that we cannot predict. But at the moment of this video, at time T, well, I am still very confident for the last bullish phase. That's it, team, that was all for today. Let me know in the comments what you think, if you still think there will be this bullish phase, if you are completely desperate, if you think there will be an altcoin season. In short, give me your scenario, I'll be happy to read it, and I wish you an excellent Sunday, and I'll see you tomorrow in the daily, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!