Transcription
Hey guys. So, I apologize for being late, but there's a couple trades I was actually doing this morning. I'm just going to show this to you guys. Um, this is something that we already did in the community, but I just want to get it out there. Um, we're in probably like a buck, buck and a half cheaper. But here, let me show you this. Hold on.
So, Jeff has uh someone out there, and then I'll give you the fancy opening. But Jeffre has a person out there, Shunlatu, that owns 5% of the company. Um, they are a Japanese bank. Um, they're a little annoyed that the stock's where it is. So, they are Financial Times is saying they're going to buy the company. Somatu has come out and said they have no immediate plans to do that. I just want to show you something. It's a financial company. Tangible book value is 5126. Um, so I was pretty active this morning in this. Uh, but I I don't think this is over. So I'm just going to point that out to you because I don't think a lot of people understand one, the book value, two, who Samato is. Um, and they seem to think that if you read the wording, it says immediate. So just understand that.
All right, let me give you your fancy opening. Get my get my drink and we'll get to it. Fancy opening. Where are you? Come on, little guy. Get it together. Come on. Oh yeah. Hey, hey, hey. Close the door. I don't know. Why aren't you going away? There you are.
Um, I'm not going to do all the other stuff for time sake today. Um, you know, I'm not going to do all the other stuff just for time sake. Um, I really think that I don't think people get this that this thing's trading at like 50 bucks. Like it should be at 50. You really should be a trading at book value. Like it's it's kind of crazy. You have so many names out there right now that are not even trading at book value. It's just stupid. Um, and that does make me think that some of this stuff is coming to an end. It's a energy drink. We're not we're not popping bottles this early in the morning. I don't really drink anyway.
All right, let's get to it. So, this is really how I see some of this stuff. Let's get to this. So, so I understand that we're going to get world peace because he told us so, but I have to live in something called reality. And so, you have a CTA level right here, and you don't really want to break that. So, I'm just going to show you exactly where it is. I'm going to drop you down here like it's hot. And I know the kids still say that because my son told me. He wouldn't lie to me. So that level right here, you want to watch that 6511. You literally hit the CTA level and they bounced it like it's hot. Right now watch your anchored VWAP. And then the other thing that you have to watch is the 200's already been cracked like an egg. Right? Pop goes the weasel. The weasel pop goes pop. You kids know what I'm talking about. You guys still listen to third base. So when we see this kind of stuff, we want to pay attention to it. Like just start with the start simple and then get like fancy, right? Like I I really think that's the way to look at this. So you always want to start simple and then get fancy. And and I can't stress that enough. Like this is what's happening, but this but this is what's happening. This is what we have. This is the sucks that we have. So just call it what it is and deal with it. and then we can kind of go forward and make money from it, right? And I I really think that that's how you have to uh how you have to look at this.
Um Oh, great. CERN Hail's delicate test on transporting antimatter. Oh, good. That's transport antimatter. What could go wrong? Um right on top of that. Okay, focus. Let's do it this way. Let's go to the five minute squirrel. What do you need from me, buddy? Okay, thank you. So, this is our this is our winning right here, right? This is where we're at. So, he's going to come out with a private equity fund. This will be fantastic for us. Um, all right. So, you see where that 50 is right here. So, you're starting to give on that 50. So, you really want to pay attention to that this morning, right? We really want to pay attention to this. We don't want to get too uh crazy in here. We just want to watch and see how this is going to go. Um, from my standpoint and looking at this, you're a little heavy in here, but I think you're getting to that kind of flush area. Um, I do think you're getting there, but I think that this is really where you want to be. You have to understand that if you undercut the, you know, the the the the Trump golden bar here, if we really undercut that, you're undercutting a CTA level as well. So you crazy kids that are out there trading futures, you want to watch that like a hawk, right? You definitely want to watch that like a hawk.
So, um, let's go to NQ and we're going to do the same thing. And I'd like to take a lot of questions today because I really haven't done that yesterday. Um, here's your 50, your demarcation line. So, we're breaking and we're getting net sellers. Now, just so we're clear, um you didn't really have net sellers at all during the equity markets. You had that at the end of the day. You tried to rally through that and you're getting net sellers at that 50% line again, right? Uh you really want to watch this area as well. You do not want to break the Trump golden bar. I actually think you have to undercut it personally uh and go from there. I think that's where this is going. But I I do think that that's where this is heading. Um, so let's just go there and go to this and we'll drop you in here. And we'll drop you in here as well. And yes, and I think that that's really all you need on the future side. I'll do the indexes, too, because it shouldn't take that long. Um, I wish I had better news with them and we can talk about the Hold on one second. Yep. I mean, I wish I had better news on them, but this is this is what we have. So, I think when you have what you have, you have to say, "Okay, well, this is what I have and then kind of and then go from there." Thank you, British guy. >> And I I really think that's how you want to, you know, to look at this. Um, >> I don't think you want to do anything more with it than that. So, um, that's really where, you know, that's really how I see it anyway.
So, I guess where I'm really going with this and what I what I would really say about it is the following. Like, slow your roll. This is what I really told people yesterday. And understand you're in a trading market. We should do the we should do this. If you're not going to break, please stop. Let's do it this way and then I'll take questions because I think that this is important here. All right. So, there's your fibs on that bar. So, all I'm doing is taking fibs from that bar, right? And what I'll do is I'll clean off all my other levels and you can just do it. So, like you guys can do this for yourselves. And I know a lot of people are like, "Well, it can't be that simple." Actually, it is because what you're doing is you're taking an event. And so like what we what we really want to do with this stuff is we want to understand that it's human behavior and we want pain points. So the algorithm's here and the algorithm's here, right? This is where people said, "I will sell as much as oil as I can and I will buy as much oil as I can." It doesn't get any cleaner. And what you're seeing is the 50% line, which changed right around 9:30, is going to coincide perfectly with what? Well, that's going to coincide perfectly with what happened in the equity market. So, you have one big trade going on here, right? So, just understand it's one big suck salad. So, as soon as like you start breaking in here on the ES, right? That's right around the time about a couple minutes later that you start breaking on the CL. So, keep that in mind when you're trading today. Um, as far as levels in here, 570 is your put wall. You know, that's not really going to change. I'll go and double check that statement now uh to make sure that it it has not changed and that you guys are ready to rock and roll today.
Um if you are trying to get in, a couple people reached out because they've been on the wait list for like weeks, but if you are trying to get in, just bear with me. Um I finally got through all the onboarding calls myself. I do them myself. Um they don't have to talk to me, but you know what? Yeah, you're saying you move the call wall up. I'm calling crap on that. But let's go and see here. I'm saying you lie. You sit on a throne of lies. Um, and you're saying the call gam is negative 1 billion. H, I think your calculations off. They're saying this is where your put wall is based upon the data. Give me a sec. I'll do it myself because I don't like your levels. For those that asked, I have had no formal training. I just have the gift of sound. You're welcome. Yeah, I I'm calling. I don't understand that at all. Um I'm not really agreeing with that your your analysis. I'd watch those three levels like a hawk. This should be support. That should be support. Give me a second here. Okay. Yeah. I mean, I don't understand why you're not trading up. You should be up more.
All right, let's go back to the cues. All right. So, I'd watch these levels. You should have some support at 580. If 580 goes, I think you're going back to that 575. Um, you know, I don't even think that that's going to hold. Give me a second. So, I don't think that that holds. I think if you get down here, you're not going to hold. I would actually look at this. I would actually come down to here and we'll just call this, you know, and we'll call that um insider buy because clearly somebody knew something, right? Whether they're domestic or overseas, somebody knew something. So, let's look at it that way. I that's really how I think you should look at it. >> Yeah, I think the I think that the we escalate I don't think we deescalate what's going on over there. That's my opinion of it. Um but I don't think it deescalates. I think it escalates. So, let's keep that going. Um, I'm where I need to be. I need to get that done.
All right, cool. Let's take questions and then we'll go from there. I'll stay for 101 15 minutes. We'll do questions. I I would really this would be like my life story right now and how I would view things. Um, oh, I do want to show you this because I think it's it's important. And, um, it's not like proprietary, but you want to start watching your advanced decline. We actually had a really good advanced decline line yesterday. My problem with the market is this that you know maybe I'll hold that anchored VWAP. Maybe you know but you're rejecting. So you can't you know you can't say you're not rejecting. Believe me I know what rejection is. So like you can't say that you're not you're not rejecting right? You're rejecting and and it is what it is. So you know keep that in mind. All right. Like we it is what it is. So, all right. We got JL. So, yeah. I mean, I actually think the the be super interesting here. I just don't think it matters. You know, it's like yesterday I was looking at this GE. I'm like or GEV. I'm like, man, this thing should rip. And then I get this like limp wristed move. Let's get off of this. Not now, Larry. I am in no mood. Hold on here. Um, GEV did the same thing, bro. And then look what you got, right? And then we fade. So I I don't know, man. I, you know, when I see stuff like this, like that better get it together. Like that scares me. So it better get together. But, you know, maybe if the market bounces, you really need you really need stabilization of the market. And the problem is we're just not getting that stabilization at all. We're getting the exact opposite. Um, so, you know, we'll go from there. I I'm in here, man. Like, I own this, you know? I I do. I own this. Like, I I really I'm with you. So, I'm totally with you. I'm totally on board. Um, super long term. I don't know how these problems with private credit are going to play out for the IGB names. And that's really uh my larger concern here. Um, Larry, not today, buddy. Let's go to the rest.
Um, BRT. Yeah, I actually think VRT can get smoked here. I actually think you're setting up to get smoked. See it? Like, you don't really want to play with this when it's in threes. One, two, three. See that, John? Look at it. So, when you when you have one, two, three, like that. One, two, three. One, two, three, one, two, three, one, two, three. Like, you don't really want to play with that. That's like this, John. Like, watch. It's just on a smaller time frame. It's like when I kept yammering on about this. And I'm like, we're going to roll here. And everyone's like, "Shut up, Boomer. You don't know what you're talking about. Bitcoin forever." And I'm like, "Hey guys, one, two, three. One, two, three." Um, you always want to watch this. So, when it starts happening like that in threes, that's pretty much it. Especially when you have the divergence like that. It's the same setup you had here. It's the same setup you had here over and over and over again. So when you see that kind of stuff, right, it's just pattern recognition, right? That's all. One, two, three. One, two, three. So I I would be I'd be careful. And you broke the 50. So like you actually not even have that. You also have a negative divergence. You know what I mean? So like not only do you have that, you've already undercut. And I'm not using pre and post. So, I mean, you got some buyers at 250, but like I was looking at this last night for a possible short. Um, I think you can get to 230, 235 if this gets ugly pretty quickly actually. But you have to break 250 first.
Yeah, a couple people brought up you. Um, so the U trade to me, um, I don't know enough about this. I would like to know more, but when you see charts like this, like this stuff's perfect. Like this kind of thing, like this is really this kind of stuff's like perfect. Um, like that kind of breakout. So, I I'm not really sure why it's doing what it's doing. I don't know enough about it, you know, to talk about it intelligently. Um, so if I, you know, was to look at that, I mean, that's, you got some interest there for sure, um, this morning, but I would have to go and take a look at this and really try to understand, you know, what's going on there and why I care about it. Um, obviously it's, you know, that earnings move and then out of nowhere it does that. So, I'd have to go back to this. Let's see what we can find out, John, because that's super interesting. Let's go to the daily on that again. Yeah. I mean, so if we go to Clear Science. Um, yeah. So, you have nothing up there to stop you. Like nothing. Uh directors are selling digital safety for the quantum age. Uh all right. So let's see if this tells me anything. Um, well, you must be in here. Is a software company. There must be a way to search that in here. Let's see if we can find something. It's a software company, but I don't know. I don't know enough about it. I'd have to do way more. Um, I'd have to really get into it. Weekly plot twist. Who's this? You know, Wells Fargo is all over this name. I I don't know. Announces partnership with Oceaner Health. I don't really see the the the thing that got me moving yesterday. So, I I can't spend that much time on it. I I'd have to know exactly why it did what it did. Um you have no options here that are even remotely close to stopping you from anything. Um like nothing. So, that's super interesting. Um, but that's a lot of volume there. So, let's just see how that plays out. Uh, and then we'll go from there. So, yeah, I think you're going to have to do it that way.
All right, cool. Uh, but I do uh I do like that, John. Uh, Vir makes a ton of sense here, actually. Um, this name makes a lot of sense because the volume's going through the roof and they just print money. What you want to do is just get over. Like, this is one of those names you just own. It's so such a well-run company. You might not like what they do um because they're the reason why you get bad fills, even though they say they're going to give you liquidity. Um, and he would argue against that obviously, but if you look at this and these kinds of moves, it's very very clear that this is starting to come out. um that you know the volume on something like that is going to be absolutely unequivocally huge. Um if we took something like this, you know, let's go to here now. Let's go to here. Yes. And then what we'll do is we're going to go and throw Prometheus here. And then we'll go here and then we'll go to VT. And then let's see what we can find out. Larry um above buying recently, huh? So, you got some spikes on there for sure out of nowhere when it got back to that level. So, you definitely have people that are interested now. So, I mean, it's a very interesting name, John. Um, very interesting name. So, you know, take a look at it. I I I get why you're looking at that. uh AXTI I actually have done some work on this. Um this is super interesting to me candidly and uh you know let's see how that plays out but yeah I could see why you're looking at that name. I mean that does make sense to me to look at that name. So I'll go back to this in case we need that again. Um but it does make sense to me to look at that name. John guys I'm not going to have the most time in the world today. ATL SATL. I mean, these things are great except you can't say. I don't know what they do, bro. I don't know anything about them. Obviously, everyone got excited here. I I would be afraid that they're going to do some kind of secondary. Um, and that's kind of how I would see it. So, I'd watch the fact that you can't break through that dogee. That would be a that would be a pickle. And then you're watching that level, which is the level, right? Say it. Look at it. So then what you want to do is let's go see if we can find out what the news is. Expand partnership with IDT US awful office of naval research slingshot program. >> Okay. >> What's a slingshot program? Is that good? Is that good or bad that he's acting up today? I don't know. I don't know. Larry is acting up today. We have to figure out if that's good or bad. Have to watch the market today. New subcontracted agreement with innovative defense technologies vertically integrated geospatial company delivering high resolution earth observation. So Google Earth at unprecedented scale e economics today announced uh subcontract agreement with innovative defense technologies to support the US office of naval research is ID are you public why do I sound like I'm hooked on phonics is that them or is that different It's a lot of volume, man. I I don't know, buddy. You know, did they do it? They didn't do a secondary yet. So, I think you probably have something like that coming. Um, I think you probably have something like that coming. So, you probably just want to watch that and kind of go from there. But, that's kind of where my head is with it. I think you have something like that coming. I I I think you have a secondary coming. Most of these companies, even if they don't need the capital, will do it. They're stupid not to.
Um, what's up? Hope that's helped, buddy. Hope that helps. Yeah, I was looking at this. I think you're going to get new leaders. I think you're going to get new leaders out of this. I think we're starting to. That's super interesting to me. Um and definitely someone I'm paying attention to. Are you overextended? It's not where you want to buy it. I mean, your buy points in here, but you know, you can always figure it out. I What would get me about it is I have a red bar and then I have a dogee. So, like it's not the, you know, it's not the sexiest chart in the world. Um, so no, I'm not really rushing to to get involved in it. So, um, I I would watch it, but I don't really have to get involved with it. I'm not sure of anything, man. So, you know, I I'm not sure of anything. Like, you know, I I look at these and, you know, I I really think that they're going to roll, but you got a bid yesterday. So, you're getting a bid. Again, the way that tankers move is backwardation. Um, and I don't know what the backwardation is right now. I can try to find out real quick and then I can say it. I can't show it. Um, hold on one second. Give me a second here. So the way that the way that these guys move, first off, they have to be able to get through it, right? But so what you're saying is this. So like this is a yield curve, right? And so like oil at a point, if I if I sell oil here, I'm going to get this. This is just an example, right, Mom? And then if I sell it here, I'm going to get this for it because it's out further. Right? When you have backwardation, um, you get to the point where, let me see if I can find it this way. It's tell me this is I can maybe find the thing and tell you exactly what's going on. Just going to float it in. Yeah. Let me go through this on the week and see what I got. And we'll go through the month. So yeah, I mean like you're 923 33. So you're starting to you're starting to start seeing like where it crosses where like it's hard to explain, but what what starts to happen is the the further out you go, it's starting to drop because they're expecting this to change. So what happens is this. you get this and selling oil you get an inverted curve. So selling here is better, selling here is not as good, right? Because the curve's inverted, right? So when that curve starts going from this, which it looks like it's doing to start doing something like this, which you're not there, but you're like more like this. These things tend to hold. So they may start they might start to hold. It looks to me like that curve is starting to hold um from the very thing that I'm looking at it right now. Um and I can look at the data. Um let's see if I can just get this one. Let me just do this one more one more way and see if I can really get in there. So yeah, the spread between the two is still great too. So um yeah, I don't know. I I I would tell you that you're probably on the tail end of that. The way it's acting, you're probably on the tail end of that, man. You might want to watch that. I like Lamb Research a lot. Like a lot. I like Lamb Research and ASML, but you better be in there for the long term, guys. I'm going to have to jump. I'm going to go through this really quick. Meta I wouldn't touch until this settles. Good morning from Aruba. Good morning from Miami. Sunny North Africa. Sunny Miami. I just saw photos. Someone just had photos of like Cape Town. It's like gorgeous there. Good morning from the swamp. And that's not Florida. AVGO is going somewhere yesterday, right? Like it's trying to get a bid. All of a sudden, nobody cares about this. It's like it's such it's so crazy. But whatever. VCX is it? Yeah. I don't know what that is. Innovation Fund. I don't know. I have no idea what this thing is, buddy. I don't have a clue. I'll drop it in the room and they'll tear it apart and they'll tell me what it is. Those crazy kids. Yeah, that's really big news about Jeff. So, it is what it is. >> Yeah, I think the inflation's a thing, man. I think the inflation's definitely a problem. Oh, you're welcome, Grace. I'm having a good time. Good afternoon from Israel. Good afternoon from Miami. Stay safe. What's up, buddy? Hello from Tokyo. Um, you know, I saw that. I I'm just a little concerned at how convenient that was because from what I saw on the option market, they're going to sell the hell out of this thing. So, but that doesn't mean that they're right. Um, I did see that. I think I think you have a short squeeze more than anything, which they love to do to this name. So, you have your gap and then you gap up and everyone's like, "Oh, it's fine. It's only $3." It's like wham. Um, usually you get another day out of it, right? You usually do get another day out of those squeezes. So, you know, that is quite possible there. Um, let me go through this because that that was one, you know, I went through so much crap this morning with everybody, but that is one. Um, your call wall's like I think it's like 165 or something. I I really don't see how you're not getting there to the 165. like I I really don't see how you're not going to get up to there to 165 or 170. Um I just don't it it almost would be like crazy to not get there, right? So um and then you are over the 55 right here as well. So it's definitely an area of interest. Um I do think that they could squeeze this again for the day. I did look at this uh candidly and I did think that um let's go take a look at this. Um, but I did see some things in the option market that were a little scary, but let's see what they uh let's see what they do here. But that's definitely on the um it's definitely on my radar for sure. So, it is what it is and we'll uh we'll go from there. But yeah, 100%. Uh the Aries news. So, I mean, a lot of people are looking at this and they're like, "Oh, they're not going to let you pull out your money." I I mean, I don't know that anyone understands that these funds are not set up that way. So, it's not like their money market accounts when people ask to pull their money out. So, you know, they have to liquidate, they have to sell. I'm not saying it's a great look. You know, we've seen Black Rockck go through this. Uh Black Stone go through this. Um we're watching Al was the first to go through it. That's the one that I'm still short. um because they're the most I think they're the most levered to it. But do I think that you're getting to a point where this is like, you know, throwing the baby out with the bathwater? Yeah. But I think that's really good because I think we're going to get opportunity on some of this stuff to uh to get involved and, you know, just to be candid, I think that that's what's coming. Like I I don't know that all these names are going to, you know, break down and smash and, you know, and take out these lows. So, I I actually think that that news is creating opportunity and maybe in some of these other names um to look at. So, you know, I that's kind of where my head is with it. You know, just to be candid, I I'm not I'm not a look, this is real simple and how I how I view this stuff. And I'll just point this out. when when regionals blew up back here and then I'm going to have to jump. Um when regionals blew up here, nobody saw it coming. No one, right? Like one guy on Twitter will say, "Oh, okay, whatever, dude." Uh but no one really saw this coming. All we're talking about is private credit. Like we're talking about it all the time. Private credit, private credit, private credit. You know what the issue is not going to be? The thing we're talking about all the time. It's probably already factored in. And once Apollo says, "This is all you're getting and that's all you're getting." Guess what? That's all you're getting. So, it is what it is, right? And that's what we have to really be cognizant of. Um I I'll do these real quick. Thank you. I'll make sure it goes to St. Jude's. So, that's where my head is with it. You know, I hope that's helpful. Form I I'm not a fan of that at all, man. See See what you got going on here. When you start having divergences like this at the top of a chart in a market like this, you got to be super careful, dude. Why did you reject would be my thing like on this? I'm trying to do them as fast as possible for you, buddy. But um and thank you. I'll make sure it does go to St. Jude's. That's where all the actually all the YouTube money goes. But um so if you look here, well it goes to St. Jude's a mighty oak, but uh if you look here at this 81 I mean the problem is you tried to break out and they completely matumbo Joe. So why like why are you rushing into that? I'm not knocking the volume but even if you got rid of the fancy candlesticks like you that's a reject. So and you're not even 50% of that bar. So, I'm not saying it doesn't work, but I'm saying that you're probably gearing up for some kind of pullback, which it actually looks like you're getting this morning ahead of that. I I would be real careful there because everyone buying these breakouts, they're all putting their stops like right here. Like, everyone's doing the same stupid trade and then wondering why they get the same results, right? But like, they're all going to put their stop right there and you're going to probably click that this morning. So, if you really had an interest in it, what you'd probably want to do is wait for the stop to trigger and all the people to panic and then buy it off of them, right? And buy their broken dreams. Hopefully that's helpful.
Ah, VCX gets you in the anthropic data bricks open AI. Oh, okay. So, we're going to go pay $40 billion for the those companies that don't even exist. Um, and that the valuations are going to be way off. So, anyone do a valuation metric on this thing yet? Let me reach out to a buddy. He'll tell me in like two minutes. All right, I got to jump, guys. Uh, USOM, I think oil's going higher. Ross Stores, anything like that is going to probably just push. But you got to be careful here, guys. You know, I think you're near the tail end of this, but the tail end of the dragon's tail, man. That's where things get wicked. So, but I do think you're near the tail end of this. I got to jump. Trade to win. Make good choices.