Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Sunday, December 7th brief. It is 8:45 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long and short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the Wells are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. I told you yesterday in the video that we were going to have an upswing and a recovery of this trendline. So, this is exactly what has unfolded. We can clearly see that we have closed the FVG right here. So, this is what I drew yesterday. So, clearly, we are on the same plan. Personally, I did not short, I did nothing yesterday, simply because on Saturdays, generally not much happens, and clearly, I was not in front of the charts. So, so there you have it, in my opinion, today we should continue to fall because when we look at the H1, we are still bearish, we don't really have any change in trend, etc., bullish. We have this change in trend, but it's more of a liquidity grab in which we are closing the FVG that we had. So, right here, we come back, we are perfectly rejected by the H1 OB that we had here. So, clearly, currently, there is not much that indicates that we will have an upward movement. On the other hand, if we start to take the liquidity below and we have a setup, we could potentially bounce back, and this will be the last zone in which we must bounce back because clearly, if this zone below this wick does not hold, we could very well go much lower. Uh, so we could potentially look for $86,200, and there will be less probability of a rebound. But in any case, in my opinion, this wick here, if we wick here and we have a setup, we can potentially bounce back. In my opinion, we will have a fake rebound in which we simply wick into a range to then look for the second zone, and there, if we have a setup, we can leave. However, if we have no setup in this zone, then potentially it will be to go much lower. So, no setup, no trade, and currently, I remain bearish, since currently we only have data and also a tech that is completely bearish. We will look at this together regarding economic news next week, be careful, we will have quite a lot of things. Notably on Wednesday, we will have the Fed's decision on interest rates at 8 PM, as well as the FOMC press conference. So, expect quite a bit of movement given that for the press conference, we don't yet know what we will be facing at the next meeting in January, if I'm not mistaken. So, clearly, we will really have to pay attention to this. On Wednesday, we risk moving quite a bit. On Thursday, we will have the weekly jobless claims, so it's not necessarily the most impactful. On Tuesday at 4 PM, we will have the JOLTS report, so on job openings. And clearly, this is something we are waiting for. So, we will see if it's bullish news. The week after, we will also have really impactful news. We will have the Manufacturing PMI at 3:45 PM on Tuesday the 16th. Same thing, very impactful. We will have the Core Retail Sales at 2:30 PM on Wednesday, but we will especially have US inflation. And these are the last days of the year. So, it's the monthly, but it's also the annual. Uh, when we annualize everything, we have the year-end debrief, so at 2:30 PM on Thursday, and we will also have the Core PCE at 2:30 PM on Friday. So, clearly, the week after will also be impactful. So, next week it's Wednesday, and the week after, we will have Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, especially Thursday which will be impactful, and also Friday. So, be careful, we risk having two rather volatile weeks. Regarding crypto bubbles, what we see, I haven't loaded them. What we see is that we have green almost everywhere on the altcoins, but that's normal, we are currently in indecision. So, if we start to go down again on Bitcoin, we could have altcoins that recover sharply. So, we could have this liquidity grab on which we pump, we take the liquidity from all the shorts that entered a bit late, and then we go back down. So, be careful about that. Regarding funding and open interest, what we see is that it is exclusively longs that are being opened on Bitcoin. We have an increase in open interest with an increase in funding, which simply means that longs are entering lately. So, all of this here, it's exclusively longs. So, where are their stop losses? Their stop losses are right here at $88,860. So, we must have liquidated some, but there are still quite a few left. We also had a tiny bit of shorts that opened just before. So, when we look, we have an increase in open interest here with an increase in open interest here as well. This means that here, these are shorts that entered, and therefore, we have quite a bit of liquidations to take above as well, but that doesn't necessarily mean we could go for them today. But why not come and do a fake rebound, get them out, and then leave again. This is often a Sunday evening move in which we get everyone out, and this is always very interesting to see, since everyone who enters here will set their stop to break-even when we dump again here, we get them, and then boom, we leave, we validate their plan, and ultimately they enter later, but too late. So, you have to be careful about this kind of move as well. Regarding liquidations, what we see is that we have a cluster of liquidity to be taken around $88,525. So, this is what I was telling you, all those who are long currently have their stop or their liquidation just below. So, around $88,525. We would liquidate for nearly $120 million if we go there in the last 24 hours. However, if we look over, we will switch to 2 weeks. Over 2 weeks, we see that clearly we have much more liquidation than that to take. If we go there, we would liquidate for nearly $500 million. So, that would be interesting. On the other hand, we still have this liquidity cluster at $94,000 and also at $98,000 if I switch to one month, we have a really huge cluster to go for. So, the plan remains the same. Sooner or later, we will go for $98,000. Now, the question is to know when, and it's not today, in any case. So, we have $2.8 billion to liquidate if we go for $98,000. So, it would be interesting to do it. And tell yourself one thing, the more we range and the longer the structure lasts, the more likely it is that no one will be left on derivative contracts and that no one will short in this zone. So, we could go, who will go long, pardon, in this zone, and therefore, we could go a bit higher. So, it would be really interesting to lateralize it a bit, to perhaps wick below the $83,000 zone to then set a new bottom and then go for $98,000. That would be really interesting. Regarding what the Wells are doing, the Wells are not buying at all. So, we have absolutely no bullish spot bias, whether at the level of the Wells, the micro Wells, or the retail. No one is buying, and we clearly see that the price is being artificially maintained currently. We see the micro Wells, we are at a low right here. So, we are clearly at a low. Retail, they are the ones who are limiting the price, but we clearly see that it is the derivative contracts that are holding it, because it is never retail that maintains a price. And the Wells as well, we are selling, and when we look a bit, well, at the spot level, we are at the equivalent of $86,000. When we look right here, if I switch here, we are below at the Wells level. Right here, if I switch here, we are well below at the retail level, we see it clearly here. And right here, if I switch back here to the micro Wells, we are also completely below, we see it. So, we have a real, real divergence between the spot and the price. So, clearly, generally, the price comes to catch up with the spot, and therefore, going for $86,270 would not necessarily be unreasonable. Clearly, we can really go for this zone. So, technically, what I think is that we are currently in a range in which this zone here has served as a liquidity grab. Logically, we could retest a small top in this zone, simply to get out the late shorts, or rather those who entered a bit too early. Then, we wick back into it, we accumulate more below, and then we can simply fall back right here. Now, we will see if we have a rebound below, but what is certain is that as long as the spot is not buying and it is really the derivative contracts that are buying, we have no rebound zone, and therefore, we can simply continue to dump. To go for $86,200, which is this FVG right here. This should also represent the end of the OTE zone of the entire bullish movement right here. This represents this zone. So, why not go for the 0.786 Fibonacci, which is at $86,000, to then potentially have a rebound. But the rebound is still uncertain. We are already much more sure of going for this zone than rebounding in this zone currently, given the data. We will need data to change to rebound in the zone. So, currently, I am aiming more for a plan in which we go for $86,000, and I will not open any longs as long as the data remains intact and we have not gone for $86,000. So, there you have it, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.