Transcription
When the global economy is bad, especially due to oil price issues, the United States will have the least bad economy because it is an oil-producing country. But the person who will suffer the most is Donald Trump. Because even if the economy can survive, if the voters in America are not happy, and don't forget, when the price of gasoline rises above $4 per gallon, and diesel is even more expensive, if the price of gasoline rises higher, his chances of losing the election are high.
Trump needs to maintain his influence within the Republican party. If he enters the election mode and the candidates for this state, that state, etc., are not his people, and others overtake them, no one will listen to him. This is called a lame-duck president with no legs left.
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Currently, in the Strait of Hormuz region, there have been periodic attacks, and the Strait of Hormuz itself cannot be used normally. How long do you think this price can be sustained? How much time will the market give to clear the chaotic situations and instability in these two straits before fully acknowledging them?
I think it depends on the approach of both America, Trump's approach, and Iran's approach. It depends on which direction they choose, and no one knows. I fear that Trump, this week and until the weekend, might be a major attack, perhaps the last one, before finding a way to de-escalate everything. The reason I analyze this is, firstly, Iran was able to launch missiles to attack a US airbase in Jordan. When Iran attacks bases in nearby countries like Kuwait and Bahrain, they move their aircraft. Jordan is a major US base, and Iran was able to send missiles there. The problem here is the distance. Kuwait and Bahrain are 100-200 km from Iran. We can say with no doubt that they have the accuracy to launch missiles. But Jordan is 1,300, 1,400, 1,500 km away, and they can still send missiles accurately. Not only that, for a major base like this, the US will certainly have defensive tools, whether it's Patriot missiles or various other missiles to intercept them. They will have plenty of them, and the released footage clearly shows they launched them, but they couldn't stop them. Therefore, some criticize that Iran has developed its missile program, making interception impossible. If I were Trump, I would see that I couldn't drag this out. In the future, the US won't be able to sell weapons at all.
Because credibility will only decrease.
They have to find a way. It's definitely not worth the risk, but beyond that, I see signs of them moving refueling tankers. Initially, they said 60 were deployed, then another 50, totaling 100 aircraft, to refuel in mid-air. This indicates they are preparing for something big. The big thing I guess is that they will find a way to carry out heavy bombing, very large bombings, called Bunker Busters. These are bombs that, when dropped, have multiple smaller bombs inside. The first bomb explodes, then it penetrates deeper and the second bomb explodes, penetrating even deeper. Therefore, when encountering strong concrete walls, this type of bomb can penetrate 50-60 meters. They are preparing to use them to destroy underground tunnels in mountains. In English, it's called a "pickaxe" for digging mountains. This name is a translation from the Iranian name for the mountain. The reason Iran named it this is because the mountain is very hard granite, and it takes a long time to carve and excavate to build tunnels. But Iran has spent the past 20-30 years gradually working on it. The only bombs that can have an effect at this depth are Bunker Busters. And the aircraft capable of carrying these bombs, as each bomb weighs 13 tons, are very large. The only aircraft designed to carry these bombs is the B-2, a very large stealth bomber. Each can carry two bombs. This is the aircraft Trump used in June last year, flying from America, refueling in mid-air, and bombing Iran's nuclear development sites. They said the nuclear materials were gone. This time, I believe he will repeat it. This is my analysis. The reason for this analysis is that I checked, and when this aircraft carries two of these bombs, it consumes a lot of fuel. Therefore, there must be many refueling aircraft waiting. Moreover, this aircraft is very expensive, and they cannot risk accidents or attacks on this aircraft. It flies very high, so there must be a squadron of escort aircraft, such as F-15s and F-35s, to protect it. All of this requires mid-air refueling. Therefore, I guess if I were Trump, I would launch a major attack to resolve the nuclear issue. This means that from now on, Iran will not be discussing nuclear issues anymore, because their facilities will be bombed and buried underground for years until they can be excavated.
If this is the case, then the question arises: how will Iran proceed? And how will this affect oil prices? I've tried to put myself in Iran's shoes. If I were Iran, what would I do? Originally, I had two cards: one was the Strait of Hormuz, and the other was uranium. Now, if Trump uses this move, my uranium card will be torn up by Trump, leaving only the Hormuz card. Therefore, if this happens, what I must do as an Iranian leader, I guess, is to push oil prices up by any means necessary, to pressure from all sides, and to block both straits simultaneously. Therefore, if this happens, we will have to hold our breath and wait to see if oil prices will rise. If it happens, I think it will happen within a few days. And if it happens, oil prices will rise, and how long will they stay high? What will be the impact on the global economy? We need to plan our finances well.
So, you believe Iran will use a strategy of double blockade, closing both Hormuz and the Red Sea, to pressure the US regarding inflation and cost of living?
Correct, correct. And what they want is for America to lift the sanctions, so they can import food and other goods. And importantly, I think before they agree, and before America agrees, oil prices will have to remain high for a long time until Trump can no longer bear it. When Trump agrees, I guess Iran might even say they must have the first installment you mentioned, the money you froze, the first installment of $6 billion, maybe it will go up to the second, third, or fourth installment, $24 billion, etc., must be returned first, otherwise, they won't open. If this happens, it might last a long time, and it might make the global economy even worse.
However, looking from the US side, in the past, the US has had high oil reserves and the capacity to produce its own oil. If Iran intends to pressure the US by raising oil prices, will the US suffer, and will they be able to handle it as well as they did last time?
When the global economy is bad, especially due to oil price issues, the United States will have the least bad economy because it is an oil-producing country. But the person who will suffer the most is Donald Trump. Because even if the economy can survive, if the voters in America are not happy, and don't forget, when the price of gasoline rises above $4 per gallon, and diesel is even more expensive, if the price of gasoline rises higher, his chances of losing the election are high. Not only that, Trump needs to maintain his image and his influence within the Republican party. Therefore, he cannot accept it if, when entering the election mode, the candidates for this state, that state, etc., are not his people, and others overtake them. No one will listen to him. This is called a lame-duck president with no legs left. And if that happens, and during the campaign, no one invites Donald Trump to the stage, he will surely die. In the remaining two years, he will have no influence left. And if he loses, he might even face impeachment, an investigation process to remove him from office. The next two years will be very difficult.
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