Transcription
Before we get to the state of Israel, Israeli society today, and Prime Minister Netanyahu's government, do you have an understanding of why President Trump, after threatening last week to unleash the gates of hell, using his phrase, on Iran, backed down again over the weekend?
Well, he's done what he's done repeatedly since early March, which is to make dire threats and then, fortunately, back down, because these dire threats are not credible. This is Donald Trump's way of negotiating, to say that he's going to destroy Iran, but the United States cannot do so, and it certainly cannot do so without Iran creating absolute destruction of its neighborhood, of US allies, Israel included. And the US knows this. So, Trump does not have a credible threat, but he makes threats nonetheless. No one takes Trump's words very literally anymore, anywhere. And the Iranians have heard these threats repeatedly. Fortunately, he doesn't try to follow through. If he did, we would have disaster.
When the US resumed bombing of Iran, the main result was that Iran retaliated. It closed down shipping entirely in the Strait of Hormuz. Its allies in Yemen attacked Saudi vessels, and oil prices shot back up to $100 a barrel, which is devastating for Trump and for the Republican Party in the elections that will come in early November. So, there is no credible threat. With Trump, of course, you can do things that are incredible. So, he might follow through, but if he did, it would lead to disaster for the United States and disaster for the world. So, we should be happy that once again he made statements, perhaps hoping that Iran would back down in some way, but Iran understands that it has no useful purpose for its own ends to back down, and that Trump's threats are again, thankfully, empty. I don't want to add any voices provoking a more intensive response. You know, people saying that he's a coward or doing this. No, he's right not to follow through on what are absolutely outlandish and reckless statements. So, I wish he'd stop making the statements. I'm not hoping that he will actually escalate the war.
I know you're I know you're able to to get I'm sorry, go ahead, Professor.
I was just going to say, I have said for many weeks, and I continue to hold the view, there cannot be a negotiated outcome to this conflict with Iran. The reason being that Iran has enough credible deterrence that the United States cannot get its way, and Trump will not sign an agreement in which he is afterwards called a loser in the agreement. That being the case, the best course of action is the two sides stop bombing each other, period. And this is what's happened for the last 48 hours. In principle, it could just continue. No agreement and no more fighting. This would be in America's interest. It would be in Iran's interest. It would be in Trump's own political interest. No agreement reached, Trump can declare every success that he wants to declare. He can say it was the greatest victory in the history of the world. He doesn't have to openly admit to anything. But the fighting would stop. The oil traffic would resume, and we could have at least a measure of normalcy. That's my own recommendation. No agreement, no treaty, no more negotiations, but also no more shelling each other.
So, our colleague Larry Johnson, who gives us expertise on military matters and agrees with what you just said, also argues that Pentagon officials have told President Trump how dangerously low are American munitions and how he could only fight for another week or two, and then the munitions would be down to nearly zero. Now, this has a number of implications. One, it means that we don't have munitions to defend us should we need them. Two, it probably means the Secretary of Defense, who calls himself the Secretary of War, materially misled the Senate last week when he said we have everything we need. Three, somebody's able to talk some sense into the President of the United States.
Yes, I I think it's clear that the Ukraine war heavily depleted US stockpiles. The war in Gaza heavily depleted US stockpiles. The 12-day war in 2025 against Iran heavily depleted US stockpiles. And these several months of war now have further depleted US stockpiles. So, none of that is a surprise. We have felt that this is the case even before the Iran war because of events in Ukraine and Gaza. So, I'm sure that Larry is accurate in what he's saying. It doesn't surprise me. We have been in perpetual war the United States for four years. This is what happens. These wars are not thought out. They are purely destructive. They deplete the arsenal and they have left us with no results. But not any of that is in the slightest a surprise. These wars, and all of them that I have mentioned, have been useless, and that's become an American tradition dating back to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Iran, and others. We fight endless wars. We have run up a debt of more than 100% of GDP. The only people who are happy about this are the war profiteers. This is basically now Silicon Valley and the more traditional military contractors because both of them are having their heyday with these wars, and the American people are impoverished, and there are no results. But even the military is becoming impoverished itself over this because it has just blasted through its inventory of weapons, and we're surely at a very low ebb.
You think the American public recognizes that this is all for Israel?
Uh I would say first of all that it's led to a huge backlash against Israel. One of the few true statements that Trump has made is when he confirmed a report, I think it was in Axios, that said that Trump told Netanyahu, "Everybody hates you, and everybody hates Israel." And this is essentially literally the case in terms of public opinion in the United States and around the world. Um, by the way, there was an absolutely fascinating Pew opinion survey last month that Americans should know about as well, which shows that not everyone hates the United States necessarily, but almost nobody trusts the United States anymore. And in a head-to-head, who do you trust, China comes out way ahead of the United States for almost all the world. So, the US has completely squandered its goodwill and its reputation around the world. I can confirm that in discussions that I've had with world leaders in the last few weeks. I've been traveling over land across Europe and Asia in a Marco Polo journey and met several world leaders, and the level of trust is extraordinarily low for the United States. We have not always squandered our military inventories. We have squandered the goodwill that our country long held. It's gone right now. The trust level has disappeared.
Would any amount of bombing Iran bring the government back to the negotiating table? Or do you think Trump would have to do something tangible up front, like return the billions in frozen assets, in order to get them to the negotiating table?
Again, I don't believe in this case in the negotiable. We want an end to the fighting. We don't need a signed agreement. To reach an end of the fighting is actually simple. It's happening in the last 48 hours as an illustration of this idea. And Iran has been explicit. If the United States continues not to hit us, we will not hit US interests, assets, and allies in the Middle East. So, Iran has effectively said, "You don't hit, we don't hit." This is what we need in practice. The negotiating table is something else. The negotiating table is where diplomats meet and resolve long-term problems. I'd like to think the United States could still do that, but Trump is not capable of that. It requires keeping to your word, which is of no interest or capacity of this president. And it requires, in this case, the United States to acknowledge formally that it is not all-powerful. And the United States, which is obviously true, but the United States government will not acknowledge that. And this is the very hubris, the arrogance that has gotten the United States into 25 years of non-stop war. That's the arrogance bringing us down, but it's also the arrogance that means that there will not there probably will not be a negotiated outcome, but that doesn't mean that the war continues. We should take this informal end of hostilities and turn it into a long-term informal end of hostilities. Many things not agreed, because that is life. There won't be formal agreements, but there could be an end of this massive negative result for the world and for Trump himself and for the United States people, the American people. That's really what I recommend. Getting Iran to the negotiating table, they've been at the negotiating table. Each time they were at the negotiating table, they were literally killed. I don't mean that metaphorically. I mean, each time the United States brought Iran to the negotiating table, they were killed. And we know that there was an Israeli attempt, or let's say it was widely reported and not refuted, that there was an Israeli desire to kill the very senior negotiators on return from one of these latest negotiations. Iran has said in recent hours, and because I'm non-stop on the road these days, I'm not catching every report, but Iran, as far as I heard, said, "We are not negotiating and they're not going to negotiate with the United States. They'll talk to intermediaries, but they won't negotiate with the United States. They get it." There is no negotiation right now with the US because the US will not sign an agreement that doesn't compel Iran to do what the US demands, and the US has absolutely no way to compel Iran to do that. So, the negotiating agreement set is zero in this case. I love negotiation. I think it's the civilized way, but with the United States, I would just say go for something completely informal. Just stop shooting, stop bombing, go home. Say whatever you want about going home, but just go home. The Iranians will not exploit that by further attacks in their neighborhood because they have no interest whatsoever in continuing to attack their own neighbors. Their entire interest is to find a new regional security arrangement with their neighbors with basically the United States not interfering in that. And so, Iran has no interest at all to exploit a US departure from this idiocy that was started on February 28th, 2026 by Netanyahu and Trump.
Uh tomorrow, Tuesday, at the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be present. Obviously, he'll spend time with President Trump. What do you think President Trump will ask or demand of him? Might he say, "Get out of Gaza, get out of Syria, get out of Lebanon?" And what do you think Prime Minister Netanyahu will have in store for the president when they meet in private?
I don't think Trump will demand anything of Netanyahu. Uh uh God knows what Netanyahu has in store, but I don't think he has much in store right now. His focus is all on an election. I don't think he he may try again to bring the United States to re-escalation of the war with Iran. I don't think Trump is that stupid to do that. Who knows? I'm sorry to put it that way. It would be so shocking if he fell for it again. But I don't even know whether Netanyahu will try. As for Trump, frankly, I don't see Trump putting any pressure on Netanyahu on anything right now. Trump doesn't have the political capital, the energy, the interest right now to somehow force some peace in the Middle East. This is not something the United States is in my view going, and this particular president and this particular government going to invest any effort in, especially a few weeks before a US election.
What is the state of Israeli society now and what is the state of the Netanyahu government in Israel?
Both with the the Netanyahu government, um, uh, the the latest, uh, uh, again, last, uh, blip on the news said that, uh, Netanyahu's party is back in front of the opposition again, uh, in the opinion polls. Uh, what's true about Israeli politics right now is this is not a contest, for example, between a war party and a peace party. This is a contest between various shades of warmongers. A lot of the attack on Netanyahu comes from the right. You're too soft, you're too weak. I'll restart the Iran war, says his foes. Israeli society is, uh, it's fractured in part, but it is, uh, uh, absolutely, uh, in a delusional state in general. Uh the Israeli public backs these wars, and they don't like Netanyahu, but there isn't a flowering of peace movement in Israel or any sense that I can see of any major parties with any electoral prospects saying that we will make peace with the Palestinians, we'll get out of this morass, we'll get out of this endless cycle, the world hates us, we're at risk. I don't see any kind of renovation of Israeli politics in this line. I don't think they have a clue as to how endangered Israel is. The world is in revulsion. The United States politics has turned. The young people in the United States, rightly, are aghast at how Israel behaves and have absolutely no affinity, give no support to Israel. This is a sea change of American politics, and since the United States is the only backer of Israel in the world, of course, there are other countries that try to please the United States by backing Israel, but Israel has no backers other than the United States and those that the United States can corral. Israeli the Israeli public and politicians have not understood how they have put their country at existential risk, not because of Arabs, not because of Palestinians, not because of Iranians, but because of their own behavior. In other words, their own suicidal behavior. That's the term that I've used over these last 3 years for Israel. It's the warning I've repeatedly given to Israel. Not that your behavior is homicidal, which it is. Not that that it's genocidal, which it is, but that it's suicidal. This has created an existential risk to Israel. Again, not from the Palestinians, not from Hamas, not from Iran, not from the Arab world, all of which have said that they are ready for peace. But rather from Israel's own murderous behavior.
Well, so it really doesn't matter whether Netanyahu's re-elected or not, because his successors will be as aggressive as he is. It might just be a different tone and a obviously a different personality.
I think that's right. I I don't view this as some decisive balloting on Israel's future. Of course, I despise Netanyahu. He is a war criminal and he's a common criminal as well. But um, this election [clears throat] is a referendum on him, but not on the underlying politics that he represents. Uh I everybody is competing on how tough they are, which wars they'll start. Uh everybody in effect one way or another is supporting this greater Israel project, which means permanent occupation of 8 million Palestinian people, apartheid rule, ethnic cleansing, lawlessness, destruction, a kind of brutality that is so vulgar and shocking and out in public view. It's hard to imagine Israeli society in this case has really lost its hold on reality, unfortunately. It's living in a closed bubble. It is in a frenzy believing that its neighbors are out to kill it. It senses maybe the existential risk, but it has no idea that it has caused its own existential crisis.