Transcription
Markets are going to be a little bit uncertain in August due to a variety of very uh tricky reasons, but mostly these will be short-term fear or uncertainty doubt (FUD) that should not last into Q4. And even by September time, I think the markets will have much better clarity and be resuming going to the upside again.
So, I wanted to take today's live stream to break down all of the different news pieces that you might hear about this month that could give you some fear and cause you to sell your bags. But, in my opinion, this is a really bad time to sell because all of these events will be over quite soon.
So, we'll talk about Trump's uh incoming tariffs that are going to affect this month. We'll talk about the unemployment numbers that people are taking completely opposite. They think it should be fearful. In reality, it's actually very good for the next interest rate cuts to happen at a very high probability. Now, in September, we'll talk about liquidity constraints in August and potentially for it to bounce back in Q4. Uh, we have a um, let's see, we also have a ETF bit of outflow. So we'll look at the daily ETF outflow from yesterday and try to monitor that much more closely. And I'll give you the exact levels that I'm looking at on Bitcoin's chart, on uh Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and on Bitcoin dominance. uh calling back to our previous few live streams of what I'm seeing on Bitcoin dominance, which is that it's going to go pretty slow for now until it can confirm a uh macro downtrend with a weekly lower high and lower low structure, and that will take at least a few more weeks to play out, which leads us into September as well.
So, all in all, take this as one piece of content that you can consume and get all the fear out of your system for this month so you can navigate ahead without, you know, selling too early because I think this is a pretty bad time to be exiting early.
Okay, so before I get started, uh, make sure to check out our bots on Pileex with the link in the description, as well as a full tutorial. So on here you can find all my trading bots that are automatically buying low and selling high. And since the market is a little bit more choppy, two things that are really good for the bots. When the market is going sideways, the bots will continue to buy buy low and sell high and generate more returns and more core position like on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. So the longer the market chops, the more profit the bot makes. It doesn't even need for price to shoot up. In fact, it does better when it chops and goes up slowly. And some of these bots are already at a better entry price than when I first opened them. For example, on Doge, on Hype, on Bitcoin, on Pepe, on ADA. So, right now, you can actually get a better entry price than when I open them. And I'll be updating my bots uh with all the ranges as well as whenever I'm putting more money into them. um I'll make sure to give updates.
Okay, so let's get right into the content and let's start off with the tariff fears. So you have been probably seeing these headlines over this past week uh this weekend. Crypto wobbles, Trump's new tariffs are coming. Oh my god. Um so what's really happening? Remember from last month, Trump delayed uh declared a tariff pause for one month starting from July 1st to August 1st. Now he has uh given it one more week and by August 7th he will for sure uh implement the tariffs on all of the trading partners of the US. I believe the full list is 180 countries and territories. Um the specific numbers you can Google for yourself. Trump full list of tariff percentages for each country. You can find them like this.
All in all, what my take on the tariffs is that they are a negotiating tool. I've been saying this for the last six months, ever since Trump even started to have any tariffs at all. Um how these tariffs work from the US is that they're reciprocal. So um yes, it starts off very high, but as long as the negotiations are good, it gets lowered, just like how Trump has been delaying, right, giving people more time. And they have in fact lowered uh China's tariffs, for example. Before it used to be like over 100% tariffs on both sides, which is completely insane, and people panicked on that. And very quickly after that, they paused and then they lowered. They said, okay, we're not we're not trying to make each other have a really bad time. We're just trying to come to the best trading deal.
So the fact that we have a set date of August 7th for these tariffs to have their worst-case scenario implemented and then start to negotiate down, I think is actually a pretty good thing. So the uncertainty is what markets fear. And as long as we know that Trump is not going to all of a sudden implement 100, 200% tariffs on some major partner like China, we're okay, right? It starts off there. People have priced in 67% uh charge to us and 34% uh reciprocal. Then they will start to negotiate down, and that's good. So markets are always forward-looking, they look at uncertainty. So as long as there's no uncertainty after the day has passed, I think this is actually pretty good.
The only exception here for tariffs is with uh Russia. So on the uh this is also coming up quite soon on the 7th uh and then the 8th, Trump also has a deadline for Russia to respond to a deal to end the Ukraine war. And this could be pretty messy. We don't know how this will play out. And if uh Russia doesn't respond this way, then Trump again is threatening specifically for Russia and not for anybody else to have a tariff up to 100 to 500%. But again, like these are crazy. You can't do this for multiple years at a time. It's again a negotiating tool, but it will take some time for Russia and for their big conflict to resolve. So this is something right after the uh August 7th uh other tariffs come into effect.
So, that's just to say don't be uh don't be afraid of the tariffs. This is a short-term thing and forward-looking. It's only going to get better after these become real.
Okay. Uh next, let's talk about the macro. So, a lot of people have been looking at these um revised down US employment numbers. So, TLDDR here is that um over the last weekend, I believe on Friday, the June, May, and June, and also July employment numbers in the US came out that um the July numbers, the new ones came out, and then the May and June numbers got revised down. As you can see right here, this is the US employment growth and the revised. You can see the revisions, you can see right here. So in the dark blue is the original number, and then light blue is the revised number.
So what people have been uh very fearful about is that in the May and June months, the employment numbers were really inflated. Uh supposedly there were a total of uh what is this? I I don't I don't even total of like over 300, 350K, and they were lowered by a combined of 258K, and this is pretty significant, especially compared to the previous three months. So from May to July, these three months, there were 106,000 new uh jobs added, whereas in the previous three months, there were 380,000. So that's why you see this big gap right here from the previous numbers. On average, these three months have been really bad for employment in the US.
So a lot of people, of course, were fearful of this. Um, and Trump himself came out and said, "What is the Fed doing?" You know, "What is the uh BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics doing? How can you have numbers that are so cooked?" Uh, he actually said that he's going to replace one of the governors at the Federal Reserve and select a and also select a new commissioner of the BLS. So short-term, yes, fear because people are saying, "Oh my god, like recession, recession, right?" Um, but all we need to avoid this is not very clear, which is for the Fed to cut rates and for them to pause QT, for them to make a pivot.
Uh, this leads really well into our next point, which is the rate cuts in September. Remember who is responsible for resolving these situations for unemployment and for inflation? It's the Fed. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: employment and inflation. So uh in the July FOMC meeting, the Fed uh did not cut rates. I have covered this last week. The Fed held rates the same. They didn't cut. And uh Jerome Powell gave a relatively hawkish stance in the post-meeting interview. So this is why by last week, end of last week, people were giving only a 39% chance, right? Uh, not not that one, right here. 39% chance for there to be a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting.
However, after these cooked labor uh employment numbers came out by the weekend, people now get it. Okay, the Fed literally were lying, and they they cooked the numbers so they they didn't have to cut rates. And now since these numbers are official, what are they going to say in the September meeting? They can't just say, "Oh, employment is all good because it's not." So that's why people are now pricing in an 85.9% chance that the September FOMC meeting will see a rate cut. This is very good, very believable because these numbers are real.
So, the only couple things that could change this is um the PMI numbers, the business cycle numbers that come out this week. Um as well as the next employment numbers for August. Uh, but no matter how you look at it, we have had three months of significant employment number slowdown. Uh, and remember the Fed, even from the very early days of this rate cut cycle, they have stated that they need to keep unemployment numbers below 4.2%. What is the unemployment number? Now you can track this very clearly. It's right here on TradingView. You can go to unemployment rate. The ticker is UNRATE, and this is directly coming from the BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And you see we're already flirting with 4.2%. We have flirted with it since July last year, three times. And this is their hard line. Whenever it comes to this point, they need to make a clear stance because if it gets above here, they have essentially like broken their promise. They they have stated in their dot plots that um this is what their projections are by the end of this year, and they want this to be lowered. In order for them to do that, they need to cut rates, and they have just been delaying, delaying, delaying because all the numbers are looking okay, but the numbers are now not okay.
So this is why uh the next September meeting is most likely going to be bullish for the markets, where we either get a rate cut or we get some sort of QT pause, or both even. So this is why um even if there is uncertainty right now for like a recession that people are fearing, you only need it to last and survive until September 17th, and then we should be good. For the market's sake, of course, for for jobs, for real employment, like if you're getting laid off, that's a completely separate discussion. But for what the markets are looking at, this is what matters. And the recession fear effect on the markets will only persist in August, and by the September FOMC meeting, it should be all good uh because most likely they're going to cut rates.
Okay. So when you look at it this way, because again, the market is forward-looking, it should be good. And that's why just this weekend we had this like recession being the big topic, but even today people are now saying, "Oh, markets are bouncing because, hey, look, we're going to get a rate cut next month." This is how the markets work. So whenever you get the data and whenever you get these fearful headlines, consider what is immediately coming up next. Is this going to persist, or is it going to be resolved just in the short term? As long as people can see the goalposts, they will look further ahead and try to price that in. That's how markets work.
Okay. Um, finally, on the other side of the macro is liquidity. In August, uh there will be a bit of potential dip in global liquidity, and I have covered this again in our last live stream talking about the drainage of the TGA account. This one right here. So the TGA account has been drained because they needed that money to fund uh to to finance them over the US debt ceiling. Now that the uh US debt ceiling has been raised after Trump's one big beautiful bill. Let me show you that right here. Where is it? Here. Trump has just signed into law the one big beautiful bill. This one. And in here, the US debt ceiling has been raised again. And this is why uh some of the other fear that you hear in the markets, such as from Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor Dad, he states that the real problem is our multi-trillion dollar debt and incompetent PhDs running the swamp, aka the Fed and our Treasury. Yes. However, uh this is a very long-term thing. In the long term, the Fed, you know, the the data clock, it's not going to get resolved. But in the short term, it has been resolved at least for this year. So the the the uh the US government is not going to default this year. They have raised the debt ceiling. They have gotten over that hump. So um this is not a short-term problem anymore. So we will be able to get over it.
The only thing to watch out for is that because they have the Fed has spent their checking account, the TGA account, this needs to be refilled, which could lead to a $500 billion of uh money that they need to take out of the system as liquidity and put back into their checking account, the TGA account. So that could lead to something like this that I have shown on stream where global liquidity might come down by $500 billion over the next few months. So what does that look like? It looks big. However, the TGA account is only a small percentage of the global liquidity numbers. In reality, what that would look like is uh something like like this where $500 billion in drop is 0.5 trillion. So 0.5 trillion would not bring us to the previous lows on global liquidity made in the beginning of the year. Instead, if we only get this TGA drop, this would be a higher low structure. And then by Q4, we get rate cuts, we get QT pause, we get the SLR exemption, uh which allows more Treasury buying from the big four banks. Any of those things can come, and then we get this bounce right after on global liquidity. And so subsequently, I think that can lead to a similar pattern on Bitcoin dominance where we get a bit of a bounce on Bitcoin dominance for the next month, but for it to drop into Q4. That's what I'm expecting.
So, you can go ahead and watch my last live stream from uh last Friday. I laid it out pretty per uh pretty clearly here. So, all in all, again, even for altcoin's sake, August is going to be slightly slower because of liquidity, but by Q4, by September, it should bounce back much stronger. Uh, and just the last bit, I'm going to close off with charts here. So uh what are the levels to look at? First of all, August uh has a seasonality effect on Bitcoin. Specifically, August is usually the weakest month for Bitcoin. You can see right here with uh these August numbers on average are red. Uh by September, there are still some red, but by October, usually people know, okay, the last three months of the year are usually very bullish. So uh this isn't only for Bitcoin, also this also applies to uh the overall crypto market. Usually people take vacations in August and September, and they are much slower to respond. So that's the first. The second is uh Bitcoin dominance.
So I have drawn Bitcoin dominance compared to global liquidity and been following this for quite a long time now. What I'm expecting here, again, I'm just going to give you guys the same charts, is if the TGA account gets refilled, we get a drop about uh five 0.5 trillion, which is right about here. And then we get a bounce right into Q4 given rate cuts, given QT pause. And on Bitcoin dominance again, you you're seeing this bounce starting last week, but it's already looking quite strong uh this week, albeit we're only on Monday right now. So notice how back here we stopped right at the 50-week SMA. Here we bounced right at the 50-week SMA. Again, the question is, will we get a next high, right? I I don't think we're going to go straight to 66% or something like this. That would be honestly very bad. Like it would look really, really bad for altcoins. I don't think this is going to happen. I think most likely we get something like this of a rollover, just like back here. But then the subsequent low, is it going to take out this previous low at 60.5% on Bitcoin dominance? And I think this will correlate with global liquidity quite clearly like this, because, you know, global liquidity falls, Bitcoin Bitcoin dominance will rise, and then global liquidity rises, Bitcoin dominance will fall. So I think these two will play out hopefully together, and by the next rate cut time in late September, September 16th and 17th, we can get Bitcoin dominance to break down and confirm the downtrend. That's my base case right now.
So that chart is important because especially if you're holding low caps, even a little bit of bounce on Bitcoin dominance will wreck a lot of low caps. But you have to be okay with that. If you're taking a low cap risk, you have to know what's going on. Uh, you might feel like, oh my god, the market's crashing, but Ethereum, XRP, Solana, you know, all the blue chip top 10 alts, they're doing totally fine. Like Ethereum itself, it had a it had this. And what is this? This is nothing. This drop is literally nothing. And Ethereum Bitcoin chart, this is so messy right here. Uh, here. And Ethereum Bitcoin chart is also still in its uptrend. And we're opening the week already erasing most of the loss over the weekend. So, this is why I'm still heavily focused on large cap alts. Most of the large large cap alts did not make a big crash like people are saying, just on this little bit of a bounce on Bitcoin dominance, because I mean, Bitcoin dominance was pretty overextended on this drop to the 50-week SMA, just like right here. So, this was not the time to be aping into low caps. And I've been saying this for quite a few weeks. As long as you're holding the large caps, you have been good. And I'm going to continue to do so until we get a clear breakdown on Bitcoin dominance. Uh, I need to zoom out here on Bitcoin dominance below this 60.5% level on a weekly time frame. It might happen just in the next couple weeks, or it might happen in September. Uh, but either way, we have plenty of time to be aping into low caps after this happens, after the fact. Uh, so that's a little bit on Bitcoin dominance and uh couple more charts.
So on Bitcoin itself, I mean, I don't know what you're worried about if you're holding a lot of Bitcoin. You didn't even feel this drop because we are the lowest we got over the weekend was 112K. I mean, that's nothing. So u I didn't even look at Bitcoin to be honest. Like 112, 110, like it all looks the same to me. The bull market levels, the uh bull market long-term support is at 91.5K right here, 50-week SMA, and a value range that we can target should we get a like decently weak August is somewhere here on the 20-week SMA, which is right now at $12,900, $103,000 by the time we get there. So that would be pretty close to these previous weekly candle closes right here back in December last year and then in January this year, and right in the middle of this range from May to June. So right in the middle of that range would be around 104K. So I would be targeting this range to buy if we get there in August. But again, don't short. Okay, this is not the time to be bearish, not the time to chase an extra, you know, whatever this percentage is. Uh, let me do price here from, let's say we do get this drop, that's extra 9%. It's not worth it. Not worth it to to sell all your Bitcoin now and then try to buy 9% lower. Like, what are you doing? Uh, I think we're heading to 140, 150K by the end of the year. I do believe that.
So, if you agree with me that we should see one of these more explosive moves, uh, after Bitcoin breaks out like this one, like this one, and this one, these were all 40 to 60% moves. Then, that does get us to 140K, 150K. It's just that the number looks big because it's a from here it's like going up $35,000 to 150K, but percentage-wise it's the same. It's the same percentage gain as going from 30K to 42K or from 45K to 65K. It's the same percentages. So you have to think on percentage chart instead of uh $1,000 charts. And that's why people panic on these kind of candles. Also, you have to readjust for where Bitcoin is at now. It has touched 120K, and we know it will be above 120K in the future. So 1K now of a move is nothing. It's less than 1%. So if you are still worried about Bitcoin going down $1,000, you have to change that mindset. Going down $1,000 for Bitcoin now is really nothing. It's not like when Bitcoin was at uh 60K just last year, and it goes down 1,000. That's over 1%. That's 1.5%. But now 1K drop is 0.8%. So by percentage drop, that is not significant. And that's why um even if we get to like 104, I think that's like totally reasonable. We wouldn't even be breaking below uh this short-term uptrend, right? If you want to draw like higher highs, higher lows, we made a low here, we made a high, we made a low. This low technically is at 98K. So, if we do this, that's totally fine. Like, if but I can already feel people will panic if we even get to like 105K. People will say, "Oh my god, the market is crashing." It did not crash. Come on.
So, um, just hang in there. You know, whatever happens this month, focus on buying dips. Do not sell and or short and try to aim for like a 9% marginal return. It's totally not worth it. Look at the bright side. Look at the bigger picture. By Q4, we have rate cuts. We have the tariffs behind us. We have um QT pause. We have the SLR exemption, which will allow, you know, the largest banks in the world, JP Morgan's of the world, City Group's of the world to buy Treasuries, which will lead to increase in liquidity. Uh, what else do we have in terms of catalysts? Uh, I mean, those are the most significant ones. Liquidity is the most important. So we haven't even gotten any of that on Bitcoin over the last two years. So, this is not the time to be bearish. Stay bullish. Buy dips. Uh, but don't ape too hard into low caps. Buy dips on Bitcoin. Buy dips on the majors, and then you'll be good.
Uh, and I'll leave you guys off with a little bit of uh TA on majors. So, on Ethereum, you can target these previous lows here. If we get Bitcoin to drop to let's say like below 110K, Ethereum could drop below 3K, and you could target, for example, like the top of these wicks. Like let's draw this box because there are not that many candle closes here. You can be tight on the candle closes on the weekly, and that will bring you to 2500. But given the strength on Ethereum, I don't want us to see too low into this box. I want us to just touch the top of these wicks and ideally respect the 50-week uh SMA, which is at 2700. So that would be the um I I don't want us to get below 2700, let's say, uh, because we also want the Ethereum Bitcoin chart to remain bullish. So if Bitcoin drops, we don't want Ethereum to drop faster than Bitcoin. And that's why I don't want to target a bigger drop on Ethereum versus Bitcoin. But so far so good, right? This is not a bearish chart at all. We are just continuing to have an uptrend so far.
Uh, on XRP similarly, um, we want us to have an uptrend on XRP BTC. So here we have a low, we have a high, the next low, we don't want us to get below here. Uh, I really want us to even stay above 0.000022, 000022, which is this line that I have drawn before. This is the last um entry level that I used to come to a XRP dollar valuation entry. And where is my XRP dollar chart? Yeah. So XRP dollar, I wanted to stay above this high right here, which at this low right here, which is just at $2. Uh, I believe this is the same level that I used on my bots as well. If I can find it, XRP, yeah, 189 absolute um, lowest point that I want to see it hit, which is right below this low right here. So, I want it to be in an uptrend. So, I wanted to respect this higher low. So, anything from three to two, this is all entry range. You can just start to ladder in if you've been waiting on XRP. Big range, but yeah, I mean, you have plenty of time if you want to just buy and hold. I mean, you can already buy, you you can still buy right now at $3. You're not getting in too late.
Um, on Solana, the SOL BTC chart is most important here. So because Solana has had a uh pretty rough year to be honest against Bitcoin. So you see we have this low, we have this lower low. Now we really need a higher low to come in on SOL BTC. We don't want it to go below uh 0.0012, let's say, one two, worst-case scenario. So on the uh dollar chart, I don't know if I still have the same level. I don't. But uh whatever that level is, right, you take the SOL BTC valuation 0.0012, you times it by the current bull market support for Bitcoin, which is at 91.5K. You come to a support level, absolute lowest point you want to see on Solana. I think that's somewhere around this range, like between 110 and 130, I believe. Uh, but yeah, I'm not going to do like repeat the math. You can you can go ahead and watch my uh I believe I covered it this in this video, in this video right here. Dip buying targets for Ethereum Solana. Yeah.
So all in all, the majors are still holding up fine. There's no like big crash on any majors, especially like on ETH. It's the biggest contributing factor to Bitcoin dominance, and it's holding up well. So, that's a really good sign for altcoins overall. Uh, yes, your low caps would have taken a dump, but that just means like your like low caps don't survive for that long if the market just turns around. Uh, as long as the large caps are holding fine, some low caps will die, but then the next time Bitcoin dominance drops, other low caps will rise. So, this is why, you know, you really have to wait for your opportunity to go into low caps. Uh, and then yeah, I mean, if you want some other entries, you can just use my bots to do so. Uh, for the top 10, I have bots for each. I have already covered all of their uh TA and their ranges that are all set up here. You can find them link in the description in my spreadsheet. And you can also um use which one uh videowise did I cover it here? I think it was all in here. Yeah, new buy zones for Bitcoin and altcoins. I have covered the buy zones for all the top 10 alts. Those same uh same levels still apply here because they're long-term, and now we are getting pretty close to those levels.
So all in all, a lot of alts, especially in the top 10, are at good buying ranges, right? BNB, Tron, Doge, Cardano, even like Hyperliquid, whatever. I'm not a big fan, but yeah, even even that is way better buy than you know your low caps. Uh, the higher cap, the better. So find your favorite ones and uh get positioned in those first so that you don't uh you don't front-run the market rotations, which is always starting from the the large caps. If the large caps don't run, the low caps will not do well.
And just look at BNB. I'm only going to use this as the last example here. Like BNB is so undervalued right now still compared to Bitcoin. I just keep using the same chart every time. Like BNB is the largest single largest exchange. There's no question. Uh, the new project crypto that's just been passed by the US uh by the SEC. This benefits Binance so much because there is now going to be an all-in-one license for doing everything, not only exchange but for DeFi in the US. So they can apply for this, right? Binance has had such a big pressure from the US over the years, but this will be cleared up. And World Liberty is going to be launching in just a couple months, and that's uh their biggest partner is Binance, right? All of the USD1 stable coins is minted on the BNB chain. All of their ecosystem are BNB ecosystem projects. It just it doesn't get better than that. So, the fact that BNB is trading at near bare market low levels compared to December 2023 compared to Bitcoin, there's so much more upside on BNB. So, like I don't know why you need to look at low caps. BNB has so much more upside. Even just to previous all-time high, so much upside.
So, um, yeah, it there you go. So, I think that's totally a bit of alpha. Uh, you don't need like $1 million market cap low uh shitcoin right now when BNB and like ADA, right, double double bottom pattern compared to Bitcoin, similar levels that it has been at since December 20 and January 2021. I mean, just so much more upside on these uh proven things that will come back. And these are all coins that will have not only good treatment in terms of exchange, but also they are CFTC regulated now. They are literally digital commodities. They will survive another cycle. They will not have anything to do with like security pressures, lawsuits, whatever anymore going forward. That takes years and years of buildup.
So, yeah, like look at these first if you're looking at altcoins. Thank you guys for joining the live stream and watching the video. Before I go, make sure to follow me on X at VirtualWacon0X. Again, I talk about this every time. My quick day-to-day updates are going to be on here, especially when I'm doing research. And uh, check out our trading bots on PONX. You can find the full uh, tutorial in the link in the description. In this month, if the market chops a lot, our bots will do much better. So I'm going to be taking this month to scale bigger positions into these bots as well so that uh they can accumulate once when the market is chopping and help me easily buy low and sell high and take profits as defined by our ranges uh when the market starts to go up again.
Okay, that's it. Thank you guys for watching, and I will see you on the next video and next live stream.