Transcription
Turkey just panic sold 58 tons of gold in two weeks, and Gulf southern wealth funds are dumping bullion out of the London vaults. That kind of selling pressure hasn't happened in nearly 70 years. At the same time, oil prices are shooting past all levels. Winston has to leave on that note. It doesn't like it when gold prices drop. And there are two industries that Wall Street barely mentions on TV, and they're absorbing institutional money at a pace I haven't seen, well, for a long time. And if you understand what's actually driving these, this is the kind of setup that can define a portfolio for the next decade. And if you don't, you're going to watch it happen, well, from the sidelines once again. So, my promise to you is, in the next few minutes, I'm going to show you why this gold selloff is creating a window. The two surprise sectors where the big money is flowing right now, and why, and the framework my Wall Street mentors use to position before the crowd catches on.
My name is Felix P. I'm an ex-investment banker, and this here is, "Come on, come on, come on, come on, sit down, sit down." You can't see him, but he's back there. It's Winston, uh, who's of course the gold bug around here. We are also the founders of the Goat Academy, where my retired Wall Street mentors teach, teach regular investors institutional strategies. We've done that for six years now. We've taught well over 20,000 people, which is super exciting. I'm also the co-founder of trademission.io, which we're going to use to identify some of these opportunities in a second. And I'm dedicating my retirement to share with regular investors, which is what I used to be, access to the knowledge that is usually only taught towards free bankers. And what I'm seeing right now, this combination of forced selling in gold, a massive oil shock, and money flooding into sectors nobody is watching, is the kind of setup that my mentors taught me to look for. So, let me show you.
Now, you might just be here for those two sectors and which you buy, and I get that. Everybody wants to get rich by Friday, but this is not actually what this is about. I'll give them to you. I'm not going to hold you hostage. But for you to get the most value out of that and actually understand it, I need to give you the institutional framework to it first. And there are three layers to it that Wall Street looks at. We could do a slightly fatter pen, can't we? My pen's been empty. And what are those? Well, let's run through those quickly.
Layer one, this is when you have forced selling. So, this is a temporary event, in my humble opinion, where big, big institutions are forced to sell. And I always look at those with a bit of a smile because I think there is a silver lining in here. Wink, wink, silver lining. Of course, I'm not a financial advisor. I'm not a registered investment advisor. I'm not going to tell you what to buy and sell. But I'm seeing exactly this in gold and silver right now. Lots and lots of forced selling. Not a lack of structural demand, just a temporary, essentially, margin call.
And then if we look at layer two, what do we have? That's your fundamentals. Those are your structural changes in the world that create long-term demand. So, not, you know, by Friday, but long-term. And we're going to look at one of those two sectors right now that the money is flowing into is getting this long-term demand from the madness that's going on in the Middle East. Higher oil prices having a knock-on effect, not on oil, but on other energy sources. So that's we come with layer two.
Layer three, this is basically how we spot pretty much all disruptive, slightly contrary opportunities. This is innovation. And innovation comes in waves. That's me drawing a wave. You get the idea. And when we get the technology breakthrough, you just heard that racket. Someone's installing a, uh, new exercise wall for me, like a, one of those wooden jobs. Um, which is the racket. I apologize. And innovation. What does it do? It attracts what? Put it down below in the comments if you know what I'm talking about. And you are, of course, right. It is money. The green stuff, right? And it attracts that money initially from where? Institutions, right? First, it's the institutions that are pouring money into it. And then second, it becomes mainstream, which is code for retail.
And if you think about these layers, one, two, and three, a little bit like a shopping mall. They have three different sales at the same time. There is a clearance sale. That was your forced selling. Two is some sort of grand reopening. That was your structural shift. And then number three is, is a new store, new brand coming in, something shiny, right? And each one is a different kind of opportunity. And smart investors know how to spot all three. Right? Now, most retail investors only ever look for one type of opportunity. So, I'm going to show you all three happening at the same time, how to position for each one. And if you've ever felt like these big moves happen and you really only hear about them after, put "after" in the comments. And that's what this framework is designed to fix.
And if you want to get serious about how to turn this calamity, this war, this uncertainty into opportunity, then I've got something better than today's video for you. A completely free training that I'm running on the weekend, where I will teach you for like two hours in depth the structure that Wall Street's been following for 50 years to find these opportunities because they've got rules. They're not showing up to the office every Monday going, "Ooh, what shall we buy today?" Right? That's that's that's retail. They don't do that. They have a framework, otherwise the banks wouldn't be there and people would get fired. So, you can join us for that and you can grab yourself a free seat at phoenix.org/training. It's on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. New York time. It's going to be fun. Essentially, uh, benefiting from calamities. Um, and it's, it's a framework you can apply all the freaking time.
So, let's go through them one by one. I'll break them down for you. Your layer one, right? What is that? That was the forced selling. We know Turkey, it's not just a food. It's a country. Yes, I'm talking to you Americans. Um, they sold 58 tons of gold in just two weeks as a result of the Iran conflict. Largest weekly decline in their gold reserves in seven years, and this is to defend the Turkish lira. And that sell is a big one. It exceeded all the ETF outflows combined during that period. But you have India. India has become a net seller. Their central bank of oil, Gulf sovereign wealth funds, think ADIA and PIF and so on. We're seeing London bullion vault data showing a 45-ton outflow from London, which is well above the average.
Now, these funds in the Middle East, these guys, these Gulf states, they're not going to tell you what they're doing. They don't have to. They're essentially privately owned or royally owned. So, that selling is hidden. But that would, to my in my book, explain why gold dropped 20% here. Essentially, they all got margin calls. But these countries didn't stop believing in gold. This is an emergency liquidity situation. They're selling some family silver to pay the bills during a crisis, and they're going to buy it back because the oil is going to start flowing again at some point, and those guys are sitting on a lot of oil and gas. So, opportunity number one is, is simply, in my humble book, gold and silver.
Now, silver has an industrial demand to it. So, if you have, there are two types of demand for these metals. There is the investment demand, and then there is the industrial demand. Right? And if you look at gold, definitely an investment demand. If you look at silver, if I could spell the word, definitely investment demand, but also very significant industrial demand. And yes, it's a lot more volatile, but it's also gotten hit over the head pretty harshly by the, uh, I was going to say, our friends at Comex, but that would be a little generous, wouldn't it? Um, but you know what I'm saying. The industrial demand is going to bounce back. It is already there. It is already exceeding what the manufacturing is. At the same time, we are not seeing any new gold mines opening up. So, the whole world is just, you know, short on gold and silver. Try go, try buying some. Seriously. Um, not telling you to buy it, but just ask and ask how long delivery takes. You'd be quite surprised.
So, when forced sellers dump an asset, what happens to prices? Prices drop, typically below the real asset's value. So, it's textbook institutional thinking. Long-term drivers for gold haven't changed. The major banks all have price targets of about $5,000 to $8,000. 95% of central banks are saying they expect to buy more gold. The dollar is going to come under pressure again from defense spending and the deficits, and the dollarization is going to come back. And that's just my view of this, and also a, a redirect result of the war. And the Gulf states will sell more oil and sell more gas, and they'll be like, "Well, what should we do with all this money?" Uh, almighty one. And and there shall say, "Let's buy some gold, and let's buy some silver." That's my b-case. It hasn't changed, right? We've covered this extensively. If you watch my channel before, what's just changed is, for a limited time, you're getting a discount courtesy of countries that needed some emergency cash, right? Doesn't mean you should run out and buy it. You have to come to your own conclusions, but that is just, well, I'm, I'm looking at it here. And if that makes some sense to you and you want to learn how to pick stocks or metals or sectors better, then join the free live training on the weekend, felix.org/training. It's my Easter, Easter gift to you.
Now, the next level is C.A.L. What is that? Isn't that the thing that's causing global warming? Yes. All the, the penguins has to leave Greenland. Very disappointingly, there are no penguins in Greenland. They're no penguins on the North Pole either. I think, uh, we should, we should set up some immigration. Now, I just checked this morning. I can see institutional money pouring into coal. What does that mean? Why? And what are the stocks? Let me break it down for you in exactly that order.
First of all, why? Well, because you have high oil prices, which makes coal competitive again. You know, "Make Coal Great Again." And you also have coal demand for steel. So, when oil is at $90, $100, or wherever oil is trading right now, it's high. And this isn't short-term. Goldman Sachs, you know, the, the bankers that look after all the kittens, they are projecting a $100 oil price for the foreseeable future. And coal is a substitute for oil. So, essentially, when oil prices, and yes, also LNG, liquefied gas prices, become expensive, the cheapest available alternative for power generation is what? Coal. Yes. Look at the open-air museum of innovation that is Europe, right? Their gas storage is critically low. It's now cheaper to run coal-fired power plants than gas-fired plants in Europe, which is ironic because the Germans turned off their nuclear power plants in some sort of, uh, hierarchy mission. So, European utilities are making purchases of coal to rebuild inventory for what could be a much more active coal-burning season. It's apparently very good for the climate. Yay. So, the coal-for-gas substitution is expected to persist through the end of the year if this war continues. And it isn't just the communist republics of Europe. It is also India, which is the world's third-largest oil importer. They're literally using emergency powers to maximize coal-fired output to offset the oil supply risks.
So, how do you find some coal stocks? I'm a co-founder of Trade Vision, where we just make institutional data available to you. And this is about to launch for everybody. You can click on the AI lab up here. Just say, "Ask anything." And you can say, "What are the top coal stocks?" Because you probably don't know, do you? And there you are. There you have actually the top coal stocks, right? I'm not saying you should run out and buy them, but I'm saying that these are moving essentially with oil. So, it's a really, really cool way to get data, get news, and everything else. And you can, it just creates these widgets, and then you can keep them, right? You got, you got some little watch lists going on. You can also then turn them on and turn them into news alerts. So, you're going to get the news alerts on your phone. And for everybody who's already a Trade Vision user, we're going to upgrade you for free. We're going to grandfather you. And for anybody who wants in on this insanely useful AI feature, which is going to save you a ton of time, you can grab one of the last 456 spots left to early access. It isn't quite released yet. It's coming. Um, and that will cost you about $16. So, you can lock it in at the old price, just like the existing users are. It'll save you 45%. There's also a free trial to it, so you don't actually even have to make a commitment. It is literally the one risk-free purchase you can do today. So, if you want to grab yourself an access to this, do, and you'll be the first to get access, and you will not have to pay for it at the new rate that it's going to cost for everybody else. You're signing up to this once the 456 spots run out. So, head over to tradevision.io/AI. The link is also down below in the description.
And to come back to the oil story, it, it isn't actually just an energy thing. It is also very much a steel story because as there is more infrastructure spending in the US, as there is more defense spending in the US, and so on, you can't make steel without coal. It just doesn't work. Right? So, you think about it this way. Every bridge, every skyscraper, every military ship, every railroad track, it all needs steel. And, and as I said, you can't spell steel without coal. And this is also a contrarian play because the whole climate change agenda has made investing in coal mines something that nobody's done. So, we're literally for years, coal was just a toxic thing that you can't touch with a barge pole, but the demand is going up and the supply is constrained because nobody's been investing. Right? Again, that's the sort of contrarian stuff, stuff that we look at. The coal stocks are relatively cheap.
And then the second industry that Wall Street money is flowing into, and I've been singing about this one for quite some time, but we're still seeing it doing really, really nicely even in this crazy environment. It's biotech. And it's literally the innovation wave I was talking about earlier. This is technology creating value. And even at the venture capital level, you know, the loons in California, VC funding went up 70% quarter over quarter in the last data. We have $3 billion flowing into biotech in just one quarter. Pharma M&A deals have jumped 31% in value. And US Pharma, actually, all pharma companies. Pharma is, uh, going to make America be on drugs again. Actually, you already are, aren't you? Anyway, they've committed $480 billion plus towards US manufacturing R&D. So, it's a major reassuring investment. It's companies like Eli Lilly. It's Roche. It's Merck. It's AstraZeneca. You know, all the people that make the world a better place. This is one of these videos, isn't it? Buy coal, children. I'm invested in pharmaceuticals. I know what happened to our moral compass. Winston, what happened to it? Winston, come here. Come. He's not getting up. He's like, "I'm not participating in this." But I'm just showing you that there is opportunity in every situation. And this is one that I think is bigly.
So, why now? Why pharma biotech of all things? There is something called the patent cliff. And the way you got to picture that is that here is now. Here is 2028. Between now and 2028, $300 billion of patents expire. And that means that big pharma's most profitable drugs are about to get cheap generic competition. And apparently, they're not safe. You better go and buy the ones from big pharma. Anyway, so the revenue on a drug like that can literally drop 80% overnight when there is a generic out there. And that is an existential problem for the billionaires that run Pfizer, Merck, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and all these other lovely companies that have our children's best interests at heart. And big pharma realized that they don't have a pipeline big enough to offset this. So they are doing what? They are buying small companies, right? Small biotechs out of promising drugs in development, and it creates a massive wealth transfer from big pharma to biotech shareholders. This is literally, in my humble opinion, this is just an opinion, I'm telling you what to buy, one of the most predictable patterns in investing. Big pharma has a three and a billion hole in their pocket. They must fill it. The only way to fill it is to buy smaller biotech companies, usually at a premium. So, if you're in the right biotech stocks before the acquisition happens, you benefit.
How do you find biotech stocks? Or we could literally ask it, "What are US-listed biotech companies? Give me 10." I mean, you know, you can obviously tweak your prompts. Here is one. A second one is one I own. For example, I think RGN, I own as well. Again, doesn't mean you should run out and buy it. Uh, our horizons and risk and factors and so on are obviously different, but it gives you a nice quick quiz list. Obviously, you could ask for more than 10, and then you can work yourself through, work your way through them and see exactly what's going on with these. But it isn't just pharma's $300 billion. That is definitely item number one. The non-number one reason I'm interested in this because there is money flowing. That's number one. But number two is AI. AI investment in drug discovery is projected to massively grow. And AI is reducing drug discovery costs by 40%. It's making it much faster. So, what used to take decades might now take a year or so. And you can discover and develop drugs with like 20 people now. Used to need a thousand researchers for it. And again, it creates more opportunities, more targets for the lovelies at big pharma.
Now, how do you get access to, how do you invest in this? Pharma, I want to be very clear, is a very risky. Biotech is very risky. You say biotech equals risky, right? Of course, there's risk with everything, but biotech has about a 90% failure rate. Okay? So, it's not something for the lighthearted, the faint-hearted, or the light stomach blind. Now, there are biotech companies that are things like Johnson & Johnson, right? Again, something that I believe I own at present. Again, doesn't mean you should. And, and that's one way of doing it. You can also look at ETFs. And if you're wondering what some of those are, I can just type them in here. "Give me, give me some biotech ETFs." It creates your watch list of those. XBI, IBB, uh, IY for example, and they will give you exposure across hundreds of biotech companies. Again, get yourself a free trial to Trade Vision, and you get access to this as soon as it rolls out. Um, and you won't have to pay the AI premium for it. And then there are also the large, larger companies like, you know, the Johnson & Johnson's for example, who have a, you know, power that's good for your babies. So, if that's something you want to look into, I would generally go for first the broad exposure ETFs. That's usually riskier. You want to look at a, an allocation of probably 1 to 5% of your portfolio max. Don't go much bigger than that. Again, I'm not telling you what to do. I don't know what your portfolio is. I don't know what your risk profile is. I don't know what your income is and so on. Um, but, you know, again, if you want to dive deeper into that, join me live on Saturday, and we can actually do this live. But it's still higher risk, right? It is, it is just that because FDA appointments, uh, I mean, sorry, FDA approvals, Freudian slip, uh, you know, can be delayed or or denied if, if the wrong person gets appointed, you know, brown envelopes and that sort of thing. Um, did I say that out loud? I, I was obviously thinking about something else. Clinical trials can, can fail, and that kind of stuff. There was political pricing pressure on, on, on drugs, and which, by the way, is going to get solved by the patent expiration. So, big pharma actually doesn't lose anything here. They're just going to say, "Look, it's all, all of our major drugs are now, uh, you know, generics," and the politicians will say, "Look how clever we are. Look what we've done." And, and actually, which is going to happen anyway. But yes, biotech stocks swing a lot. So, you need to really, really be aware of that. It isn't for everybody. It isn't guaranteed, but the structural drivers, the patent cliff, the AI revolution, and the, the money flowing in, those are real, at least from where I'm sitting. Right?
So, let me know which of these surprises you more. You might have seen the, the gold and silver coming, but did coal or biotech surprise you more as a beneficiary of where we are right now? Put, put coal or biotech in the comments down. But I'm curious to see what you guys think. And everything I just showed you, the forced selling, uh, in gold, the, the, the oil shock driving coal demand, the patent cliff fueling biotech, it's not random analysis that, you know, we just put together. It's what I learned from my Wall Street mentors, guys who worked in banking for decades. And we can see the patterns of the big money moving. So, when you see these money shifts and you know how to act, then I believe you're in a much, much better position to to make better decisions. So, come and join me on Saturday at felixfriends.org/training, and I'll break it down for you on a much, much deeper level. We'll have like 90 minutes or two hours to actually do that. And, and, and just remember our layers here, right? Layer one, the temporary dislocation. I think that's a gold and silver opportunity. The structural shift. Oil stays around $100. Go, coal is definitely back, baby. And, and level three is, layer three rather, is the innovation biotech wave, which is surviving. Even this nutty market that we're in right now. So, for me, those are sectors that I'm definitely looking at. And if you got some value out of this, share it with somebody.
And Winston, Winston, come on. Come on up. Come sit. Sit. Come. Let's sit up. Let's sit up. Sit. Sit. Sit. Sit. Sit. Sit. Sit. Sit. He is just not very cooperative today, is he? Um, thank you for watching. Look, I wasn't going to make this video, but oil didn't just hit $115 a barrel, but at the same time, Bank of America, that's what we were just reading on the sofa, put out a report that they sent to the institutional investor.