Transcription
The US political system is decentralized, and because of the need to win votes, it goes through emotional phases. It is entering such a phase now where China is demonized out of mass emotions. There's some manipulation behind the scenes, but it's not based on knowledge. You ask those who are anti-China, "Who is Lang?" "Where is Singapore?" They won't be able to tell you, but they have strong emotions. They know everything about Tibet, they know everything about Xinjiang. But really, so it's it's not sustainable, and they they don't understand the nature of China.
Why is China always building walls around itself? Every dynasty rebuilds the Great Wall, and even today, capital markets, Hollywood movies, co- China is constantly building walls around itself because it is happy in its own homogeneity. It has a very different nature from America. But the Americans think that China wants to displace them as top dog in the world.
[music]
And because of that, it is trying to contain China, even pull it down if possible. And my fear is it may exhaust itself in the process, and I don't think it will succeed. You take this latest move to impose 100% tax on EVs. I mean, the Qing dynasty did that, right? In the 19th century, and the result was the world passed by, and within a few decades, its position plummeted in the world. There's the danger of shutting out the world. The Europeans can't do it, not the Germans. So they said, "No, we will rise to the challenge of China." And whether it's Mercedes-Benz or BMW, these are very solid organizations, and I think they will put up a stiff resistance and in some ways will remain better than the Chinese. But if you say, "No, hide behind the walls, 100% tariff," you become very weak. But this is a phase Americans are going through. But I fear that on multiple fronts now, they are facing very difficult challenges. You look at Ukraine. I mean, last few days, last one week, the Russians are moving across on a broad front, and they're finding that there are no fortifications. Apparently, the money went somewhere else, and the Russians are just walking across. So the people are hockey for evacuating. But those who are Russians who prefer to be in Russia, they are staying. Ke Sunumi will be threatened. But I suspect that an important objective for Russia is Odessa. So the Ukrainians are now in a dilemma. They don't have enough people. They lack equipment. But for the western countries, this is alarming because in the last two, three years, everything to defeat Russia, and Russia is not defeated. And the back pressure will affect politics in America, in Germany, in France, everywhere in Europe.
And then you have Gaza, which has really created a huge problem for Israel and for America. I mean, the Israelis believe that this is existential, that as Jews, they have to fight for themselves, and they think that force will solve the problem. And they have enough [music] influence in America to ensure America's support. But this has created a deep split in America between old and young. So TikTok acts in fact feed anti-Israeli feelings among young Americans, and this worries them. And that's one reason why they want to shut down TikTok, not just because of China. You know, when I was foreign minister, a Chinese diplomat joked to one of my colleagues, he said, "Every time we face too much pressure from America, someone from the Middle East will save us." So now America hasn't got the bandwidth to have another front in Asia. So they want to stabilize the situation in Asia. But the Democrats are more globalist. I mean, they express American exceptionalism. They feel that America should be dominant everywhere, and its values should prevail everywhere. I don't think they can succeed. Trump is more isolationist. He tells NATO partners, "If you don't cough up, it's like your insurance. If you don't pay your premium, the policy [music] is canceled. NATO won't defend you." People are in shock when he talks like that. But does he make sense? In a way, he does. Because if I'm an ordinary American, who's paying for all this? Well, you can print the US dollar. That's okay. But one day, you cannot just print dollars like that, and it will be a choice between guns and butter. So my money goes to guns or for my butter. There's no question how they will vote.
So the key event will be [music] when the primacy of the US dollar breaks. We all know it has to break sometime or other because it's abnormal. If it's 30 years from now, well, let's drink and be married. But if it's 5 years, well, we've got to calculate, right? Do we know when the cookie will crumble? We don't know. But the way the US is moving is bringing forward that date. I mean, they try to control countries by sanctions, and if you are subject to sanctions, it's no joke. I mean, I have Hong Kong friends. One of them's quite senior administration. They say, "Now I'm completely beholden to my wife. I can't have a credit card. I don't have a bank account. All my assets are with her. I better be nice to her." So if you're under sanctions, it's no joke. So when they threaten the ICC, you put out an arrest warrant on who will go after you and your family members. A number of US senators have signed that. So of course, the ICC has to stand up to it. But I'm quite sure privately they will say, "This is a serious matter, not just for me, but also my entire family. Then how do I operate?" But how long can you pursue this course? Something is happening. So we we better be very alert. This is we're entering a great transition. US-China is part of it. India is part of it. Middle East is part of it. Ukraine and Gaza is certainly a part of it. And one way or another, it will affect us in Southeast Asia. I think we just keep ASEAN united. It gives us a lot of buffer. Then however stormy the weather is, however choppy the waters become, if we have roughed together in ASEAN, can we can pop up and down and keep dry. But we're entering interesting times. I think ASEAN will be okay. ASEAN is not held together by love. It is held together by fear. Because even if you're Indonesia, you know that others are much bigger. And if we don't stick together, we'll be vulcanized. And instead of becoming neighbors, [music] we become clients of big powers. Instead of using them, they make use of us. That's always the threat. It's like the Philippines now. The Philippines have legitimate disputes with China. Both sides have their cases. The Americans see an opportunity [music] there and jump in. They bring in the Japanese, and now Philippine politics is caught up in this. Can an accident happen? Yes. Will it lead to war? I doubt it, because in the end, interests themselves and the business community in the Philippines, which has a strong Chinese component, they don't like what they're seeing. And below the emotions, the Filipinos know that in the end, they need economic development. And to some extent, the Americans are somewhere they strengthen their negotiating position with China. So China must manage this skillfully, understanding the domestic politics, understanding that deep inside, the Filipinos are pro-American. I remember when the Filipinos asked Americans to leave Clark and Subic bases, they said, "GI go home, but bring me along with you." So this is the Philippines as it is. So China must work with it and find a way to save face. I mean, they had an agreement, a gentleman's agreement with Duterte, which Marcos has repudiated. So okay, so they must find a new [music] way to to equilibrate and make use of the Americans and not be made use of by the Americans. But that's very difficult. When you try to make use of a big power, you end up being made use of by them. Singapore has learned that lesson. We are very careful.
Then you look at Vietnam. Vietnam has made a very important decision to go with China. It was not well reported, but Vietnam has agreed that Hanoi will be linked to Kunming and Nanning by high-speed rail. This is big because each connection is tens of billions of dollars and will change the topological configuration of logistics and supply chain and human movement for decades to come. The Vietnamese held back this decision for a long time. But they're cracking down on corruption. China is now an inspiration to the general secretary, [music] but he's having one hell of a fight in Vietnam. But I think in the end, they have no choice because if the Communist Party [music] is termite-ridden, there's no hope for Vietnam. They know it. And they didn't fight the French and Americans for nothing. And whoever governs Singapore knows that we are price takers in the world. We can't change the world, or we can't change India or China or US-China relations, but we can decide how we are positioned and how the region is shaped. In the region, we have some influence. So let us work on that. But the key is our own internal cohesion. That within Singapore, we feel for one another. That we do the wealthy, you know, it's a bit unjust because of liquidity, the wealthy have become very wealthy, and in many societies, the Gini coefficient has worsened. And it is easy within a short distance to live in your own world and to forget how others are [music] living. It's very important that if we are blessed, bless others, then our society will cohere. But if we in a little bubble think that we are here because we are more intelligent, we are more gifted, and therefore we deserve this bubble, and if you are outside, you deserve it because you are what you are, then our society will break up. Then when the storm comes, instead of us being focused, we'll be crawling among ourselves. Then we taking water. To me, that is the greatest challenge, and it is a political challenge. It's a political challenge for the PAP, for Lawrence Wong. How, in the rapidly changing world, with all societies facing the impact of globalization of ceaseless technological change, how we still stick together? And it's not just Singapore as a whole. It's within [music] communities, within families, and in ourselves. How do we respond? And we know that when new technologies appear, some respond faster, more capably than others. Some families will do very well and float to the top. Others are stuck. Even between ethnic groups, there will be a divergence in responses. Even between religious groups, there'll be a divergence in [music] response. And therefore, there'll be new tensions. And these new tensions have got to be attended to, addressed so that we stick together. We are a heterogeneous society, and we have many foreigners in Singapore. And every time a new technology, AI, comes along, some will quickly exploit it and be ahead. Others will slide down the league table. But if those who move up don't look after those who are left behind, we'll be in trouble. So that perhaps is our single greatest challenge. And that at the core of it is a moral challenge. Are we one family, or are we divided?
There's information warfare against China. Yes, China faces a lot of problems. They punctured the real estate sector, and it will take them years to sort it out. But they put a bottom to it because it's on everybody's balance sheet, and they can't afford for it to implode. I think the real estate sector in China has bottomed out. I mean, there'll still be scares here and there, but by and large, it's bottomed out. But you will not go back to the good years of the [music] past, not for many years, if ever. Is China in trouble? I don't think so. I mean, look at their factories. Look at their EVs. Look at how terrified the Europeans are, accusing China of having overcapacity. I mean, how can you blame China for overcapacity when you have when you're taking liberties with yourself, having long summers and working short hours, and you say, "No, no, no, no, no, you are working too hard." There are consequences. And if families take liberties with their children or with themselves, there are consequences. So you look at Asia, look at China, look at Southeast Asia, look at India. There are people who are hardworking, who obsess over their children, who want to have of them a high education, who scream in order that their kids will have a better education, better health, a better life. In the end, the governments have sorted themselves out, and they'll do well. And we're lucky to be in the part of the world where strange values have not taken over our societies. I mean, let's ask ourselves, 19th century, Qing [music] dynasty, China, the opium problem. I mean, of course, it is the evil of the West selling opium to China. But why was there a market? Why was there a market that insisted on opium to drug pain and suffering? Why is America such a big market for drugs today? And I was watching the Eurovision contest in clips of it. I mean, the big issue was how the Israeli [music] contestant was being booed and so on. It was very unfair to her, but I mean, that's politics. But parts of it are almost satanic, but it's not part of the fashion of the most of Europe. What is happening? PM Lee talked about how we should keep all these woke things away from us as much as possible. I fully agree with him. Keep our societies wholesome. Keep our families intact. I mean, AI is very important, but AI cannot answer moral questions for us. In [music] the end, it's every indiv every individual, every child who must make the choice. Be immersed in technology, make use of it, but have our own sense of what it means to be a human being. So if we use that as a template to judge human society, I say we are we are very lucky to be in a part of the world where societies by and large are wholesome, and we'll do well. But of course, if there's war, then everything gets upset. So there must be an overriding desire [music] and mission to keep the peace in the region, to keep conflicts within bounds.
China's strategy is to build up Europe as a separate pole, to build up the euro as a separate reserve currency, in order to have more room in managing their relations with the US. But they know that whatever happens, Europe will always be closer to America than they will be to China because of deep civilizational relations. But some distance between Europe and America is good for China. And if Europe plays this skillfully, Europe can prevent either America or China from [music] being excessive in their behavior. But if China pushes too much, all Europe need to do is to shift a bit of weight to America, and China will have to behave. If America pushes too much, they only need to shift a bit of weight to China, and America will have to behave. It's a Tai Chi. Unfortunately, the Europeans are not yet good in Tai Chi because the European Union is not a centralized organization. They're divided, and there are no strong leaders today. Macron is probably the strongest, but he's in his last term, and French society is fractured. All European societies are fractured. But maybe in time, enough thinkers in Europe will come to the conclusion that they can keep the peace in the world by being more balanced. But this will require first for there to be a ceasefire and some kind of a peace settlement [music] in Ukraine. Because for as long as Ukraine is a raging source of infection, Europe cannot play this balancing role. So this this it may take another 10, 20 years, and we've got to navigate through this this phase.
>> But [music] as markets, uh, the Asian markets have underperformed for a considerable period of time, and I do get that feedback from clients that, oh, they're they're losing [music] uh confidence in Asia. So the the question was just simply, uh, do you see that engine of growth, uh, changing and becoming less, less strong [music] for Asia? How do you, how do you, how do you think about that engine of growth for Asia?
>> Oh, I think that's a very sadly mistaken view. I mean, China accounts for a third of global growth. Asia will account for maybe a half of global growth, and be account for more and more in the coming years.
>> [music]
>> Markets will take time to to respond, and partly because of decoupling, and the US telling the funds to downweight China, funds, they're playing up India, but India has its own rhythm, and India will take time to to develop. It's still early days for India. But the developed markets, the the more mature markets will be China and Southeast Asia, and I would not be underweight on them. And if they, if they, if they're oversold now, that becomes an opportunity. But I think it's a very wrong view of the world and ignores basics and fundamentals. The Americans don't understand this yet that because China is getting bigger and bigger, for us, all of us want the Americans to be in the room. But if the Americans say, "No, we have to choose between China and us," then we say, "No, we we can't. How can we choose? I mean, China is where our side of the bread is buttered, you know." But if they don't ask us to choose, then every door, every window is open to the Americans, and they they will not have to pay a cent. I think eventually they'll come to this realization. The Europeans and Japanese already know it, but it'll take time, and this is a transition that unfortunately we have to go through.
China's growth is so remarkable. It threatens Western dominance in the world. And for the Americans, they fear that China will displace them as global hegemon. And this will continue. There will be a trial of strength between the West and China, between America and China for many years to come, because they think that when China grows bigger and stronger, it will be like another Western imperial power competing with them for power and influence and wealth and prestige in the world. But China is not like that. Now, the Chinese mentality is, we're all homogeneous. We're over 92% Han. We prefer [clears throat] to be among Han people. When there's a crisis, the foreigners will quickly leave. The Chinese people will stay behind. They may complain, but they'll take it. They'll comply, and then we'll reopen up again. The foreigners will come back. So the mentality in China has always been defensive. That's why they always building walls. I mean, even in the national anthem, "Chili Chili," they always talking about building walls, and it's not just a simple wall. The Great Wall that we see today is a fossil. It's like saying, "Oh, dinosaur bones," but it was not bones which defended China. It was a dinosaur. In other words, the Great Wall was a comprehensive system of for deployment of intelligence gathering, of early warning, of defense in depth against repeated Chinese dynasties seeing as mortal threats coming from the north and the west. Until today, the instinct here is to build walls. So there's a wall for everything. We know about immigration. There's a wall for capital markets. There's a wall for Hollywood movies. There's a wall for books, for the media. There's a biological wall. This is China. And because of this, even when it becomes very big, its instincts are defensive, and [music] and so vertically integrated. There's almost a feeling that even the rest of the world to disappear, China can continue on its own. And to some extent, that's true. If it were China and ASEAN, I think it's a self-sustaining system even without the rest of the world. And that's remarkable because China and ASEAN are highly complementary. China is bland, vast [clears throat] population, cold in winter, dry, not very much arable land, and aging. Southeast Asia is warm, plenty of water, it's young. You can grow stuff everywhere in Southeast Asia. No one's going to die from hunger in Southeast Asia because even if you do nothing, the fish is available from the sea, and you plant anything, you'll grow. During Japanese wartime occupation, people lived on tapioca. Maybe not the best of diet, but you'll still be alive. And most importantly, same time zone. I was told no lacking coffee. Most popular product is latte with coconut milk because Chinese people can't take can't take lactose, you know, we go to a toilet. So coconut milk is okay. So all of us now, when we go order a cafe, many of us order latte coconut milk, for which lacking coffee needs 10 million coconuts a day. You're not going to get those coconuts from Hainan or from Sichuan, Yunnan. And even those coconuts are not very good. You get them from Southeast Asia. The cities of the 20th century followed an American pattern. The cities of the 21st century will follow a Chinese pattern because here in China, they're experimenting with urban systems and networks which the world has never seen before. And it's exciting. It's dramatic. Just two weeks ago, I was in Guangzhou. I visited E-Hang. And so they give me a briefing about the electric vertical takeoff vehicle. It's like a flying car. So I I volunteered immediately. They looked at me. They were not sure. They didn't want to ask, not to embarrass me, but they were surprised that I immediately wanted to take a ride. Now, I was from the Air Force. I used to buy helicopters. Helicopter, one engine, a bit risky. Two engines, a little safer. The big rotor blade can auto-rotate so that you can land safely. I was never a pilot, but I took flights with our helicopter pilots before, and in Brunei, were able to land on narrow shoulders on mountain sides just through auto-rotation. But if something happens to the main rotor, too bad. If something happens to the tail rotor, too bad. But this little flying car has [laughter] 16 rotor blades, 16 batteries, three independent flight control units. I told myself, "Yeah, it looks like a toy. You know, you move it, you'll shake." I said, "No, it's okay." So I volunteered immediately, and others in my delegation, all all had to volunteer too. I think they were a little afraid inside. So they brought me up 50 meters and then brought me down. I said, "Hey, I want to go take a look, you know, take pictures of Guangzhou from 50 meters up." They said, "No, no, no, no, air traffic approval." But after that, we talked to the regulators from CAC, very young, very strict. They said, "No, this is the only company whose flying car we approve for commercial purposes." They had an accident before, and they were impressed by the way they responded to the accident.
You know, when Trump introduced his tariffs, there's a bit of a disappointment that Vietnam immediately wanted to settle [music] with zero tariffs. The US is zero tariffs. I thought it was a mistake for Vietnam to do that. You know, Vietnam's imports from China correlate Vietnam's exports to the US, which means Vietnam's export to the US has a high Chinese component. So the US is never going to zero tariff Vietnam because they're going after China, and they should have waited for the ASEAN leaders to consult each other first before responding, even though each of us will have to calculate in our own self-interest. I think Vietnam has learned from this. We have to survive, and we survive by not taking sides, not sticking out unnecessarily. But of course, if you are pushed, we have to be firm. And I recall in Fudan University, how when Michael Fay was sentenced for six strokes, and Clinton demanded that we don't can him, we still did. I mean, we reduced the number of strokes from six to four, and Clinton kept going away from the White House for three years. He was angry. Although later, when he visited Singapore after he stepped down, at the dinner which I attended, he told Go Tong, "You are right to can that boy because when he went back, he called his father, and the father had to call the police." I did not know at that time that while our stocks in the US went down, our stocks in China shot up. I went to see relatives in Shantou, everybody talked about it, and everybody said, "Singapore Hang, we dare to beat American backside. We we did not seek their honor." You know, it was the last thing we wanted. We have to do it because we can. We cannot be pushed around. If we had buckled into the Americans, then others would have lost respect for us. But it's better to be with ASEAN because everybody needs ASEAN. China wants ASEAN as a friend, and everybody else wants to be in ASEAN to benefit from our growth. So ASEAN is the first circle where diplomacy is very important. And I hope that in a great city like Shanghai, in addition to meeting just Singaporeans and Malaysians, we also network Indonesians and Thai and Vietnamese and so on, and try to maintain a certain ASEAN solidarity in all the cities of China. It's in our interest. Yes, I'm I'm uh attracted to the idea of ASEAN-China cooperation in space, especially when the Rail Islands could provide a launch pad on the equator to give the rocket maximum initial velocity. You know, it's always better to launch from the equator. So in America, they go as far south as possible to Cape Canaveral. In China, they launch from Wenchang. In France, they launch in South America, which will launch from the equator on one of the islands in the Riau, and make it the ASEAN-China facility and be part of this program. You talked about China's space program is is remarkably successful, and we should be joining China on the moon, on Mars, and so on, and we can add our own value in different ways. The main problem between China and ASEAN is the South China Sea. On Taiwan, I think none of us wants to get involved. The South China Sea. I think Vietnam and China have worked out some arrangement. So the proximate issue is that between the Philippines [music] and China. And today they're having elections in the Philippines, and China is a big issue. My estimation is whoever wins this election, whether it's Duterte or or Marcos faction, the pendulum will stabilize. I told my Chinese friends when Duterte was president, I said, "This pro-China policy of Duterte, it's not sustainable." I say, "The Filipinos are in the house pro-America. They used to say, 'GI go home or take me with you.'" I don't think that feeling has changed. Most Filipinos want to be America, ordinary Filipinos, because there's a passport to a much better life, but they don't want to be bullied by America. And I think the the pendulum will swing back. It will it's gone too far in the other direction, especially when it's quite clear that there's a conflict over the South China Sea. The Americans are have got many other things to do, and therefore there's a limit to what adventure the Philippines can get can involve itself in. And the Chinese must understand this and make it easier for the Philippines to climb down. So I I'm not pessimistic. I think after today, things may get better. And the Americans do not want to fish in this water because they got much much bigger fish to go out. The key in the South China Sea is to create a positive agenda, and Indonesia's Natuna Island may well play a very important role. Imagine Natuna Island, which belongs to Indonesia, and therefore not sensitive for all the other countries of ASEAN, become the tourism center, becomes a fishery center, and China has enormous need for fish and shellfish in Southeast Asia, and a center for search and rescue. Open it to China and to ASEAN, we may well be able to create over time a positive agenda for the South China Sea, which in terms of scale is like the Mediterranean Sea. The distance from Singapore to Manila is shorter than the distance from Barcelona to Istanbul. So if we make Natuna a center for ASEAN-China relations and work out a positive agenda, something may happen. There's no no benefit in trying to quarrel over the claims. No one's going to give up his claim. Not the Philippines, not Indonesia, not China. Let's set aside the claim.
You are going to find in China a different way of organizing human society where there is no need in every case for talented [clears throat] people to enter the city, where they can work further away in beautiful communities, but at the same time be very well connected and be part of the world through 5G, 6G, through bullet trains, through maybe flying cars. This morning I went to the new Huawei campus. You know, they're so discreet. Professor Chang wanted us to take a group picture with a Huawei logo. We could not find a Huawei logo anywhere in the campus. I think they don't want Americans to know what they're doing. Of course, the Americans are monitoring it intensively, but it's just TT, just keep a low profile. Keep a low profile. Show by action, not by your words. It's a lovely campus, and the the Shanghai government arranged for the TA to go all the way there, and within the campus, they have a little train. Run and F wanted it to be a chuchu train belting smoke. They say that's no good. So they have a Swiss train running on diesel, but I think they will replace it with an electric train, so it'll be quieter and cleaner. But I thought if I were a young person, I don't think I'd mind working there. You know, it's such a wonderful, inspiring environment. [clears throat] And all over China, they're developing new communities, and this would be very important. There was a time when they learned from Singapore. They still do episodically, but on a much lesser scale. But we have to learn from China. And in many ways, those of you who live here and who know China well, you have a responsibility to tell Singaporeans back home what is happening in China, what are China's mistakes, but more importantly, what what are its achievements, and how we can also learn so that we don't slide backwards, but we stay up front. We have to be careful about the geopolitics. Everywhere in the world, every piece is moving. And many of us are worried, you know, geopolitics, how is it going to affect my company? How is it affect going to affect my business, my family, myself? Should I be here? Should I move out? Singapore's best bet is not to be clever and interpose ourselves. It's very dangerous. You know, someone asked, should Singapore mediate between China and the US? No, no. That that is fully. That is very fully. We should never even think about that. But of course, if they want Singapore's help, we should help. That's what we should do. It's like when Trump met Kim Jong-un in Singapore. I was told, I don't know whether it's true, that they agreed on Singapore before consulting Singapore because they know that Singapore will say yes. Of course, we will say yes. I was the first foreign minister to visit North Korea, and they always welcome me when I go there. They like Singapore, and they know that we're under pressure from the US to restrict the the activities in Singapore. But when they have to meet, they meet in Singapore. In the same way, when Taiwan and mainland have their meetings, they meet in Singapore. That's the kind of role that we play. But we are better off being part of ASEAN because sometimes we have to make hard choices, and it's good to be able to hide behind ASEAN's skirts. You know, they say, "Oh, this is an ASEAN position," and if all of us maintain that discipline.
So for the US to think that it can change China, that's an illusion. And if one builds hopes on an illusion, it can only lead to one outcome: tragedy. But if the US accepts China for what it is, I don't think China wants to be number one politically. It will be number one economically because of the size of its population, but it doesn't want to take on the burdens of being global hegemon, of being global policeman, of ensuring that waterways are open, that there is a working international system. It would be quite happy if the US were to do that. So if what the US seeks is not to bring China down or to prevent it from rising, but they say, "Look, in a multipolar world, in the end, we will still be primus inter pares, will be the first among equals," because of the English language, because of standards, because the US itself is a meta-system, uno with diverse components, but held together in a constitutional republic sustained by certain values of freedom and democracy. I think even the Chinese people admire that. They're not sure it can work. It certainly cannot work in China. But when they come to the US, you're a researcher, you are a taxi driver, you're a software programmer. Yeah, it's it's a working system, and I'm fairly treated. And that remark about the US not being number two troubled me the most because it suggested that the US will do everything it could to prevent China from being number one. And the Chinese ambassador to Washington of many years, Cui Tiankai, after he retired, he went back to Beijing. I think it was the end of 2022. He gave a speech, scripted, where he said that there is no bottom line to the ill will which the US has for China. I was shocked by what he said, and I looked back at the video, and I saw him reading from a script. It was a prepared statement, and therefore [music] in the Chinese system, approved in some way, a warning to the Chinese people to be prepared for the worst. If both sides continue along this path, I think there'll be great trouble. I think China is prepared to accept the US for what it is. It may have its wishes that the US is in secular decline. But if the US recovers, I think China is prepared to accept that it is a country with very special strength, to which the children of many of the leaders there who want to come to to study, do research, and to work, and per chance even to settle. They know that what they do not want is for the US to want to somehow change China in its own image. To me, that's completely unrealistic. I mean, there are China scholars who have been invested almost their their life studying China. They love China so much they want to change China, and when they find that China has not changed, that love turns to hatred. That cannot be the basis of love. That I love you because I can change you. That's the basis for trouble. And China has its own deep nature because of its own history. There's no country which has a more recorded history of its own past than the Chinese. So it's deep, extensive codification. How do you change that? Even Xi Jinping can't change it. Mao Zedong, before he died, he said, "In the end, I've only changed a few things in my own neighborhood." He launched a Cultural Revolution, wanting to change China, and he failed because it is as a civilization, the most conservative in Chinese history, and which is why it has survived.
The US is a bundle. There's a set of the US which is hegemonic, which is likely uses force to achieve political aims. I once told an American friend, it was somewhat troubling when I told him that I said, "You are a warlike people." At the drop of a hat, you move military forces, which is true historically. But at the same time, all of us who have spent time in America know how generous the American people are. When my youngest son had leukemia, he was fortunate enough to be treated at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, perhaps the biggest charity in America. We didn't have to pay a cent because we didn't have insurance. They didn't want parents to decide on treatment modalities on the basis of cost because it is a research hospital. And at church, the hat was passed around, and a few hundred bucks pressed into my wife's hand, even though we did not need the money. But this is the generosity of ordinary Americans. When we were in Houston, where my wife was treated at MD Anderson, she's a pianist, and at various corners, there are pianos, all donated by well-wishers, a little trolley serving coffee, tea, cookies, run by volunteers. This is America. So it It's a bundle. There's a part of America which we all love, and there's a part of America which we all fear. And how American society evolves is for Americans to decide. We can't change America. We can't change China. But we watch with anxiety what's happening in this country.
In 2009, when I visited North Korea as a foreign minister, I brought my wife along. It was very sad. Many windows were broken, covered with plastic sheets, and they get very cold winters up there, you know. And I heard later that the Chinese donated a glass factory. After I left government, 10 years later, 2019, I visited North Korea again. Despite sanctions, Pyongyang looked much better. And again, I went down south to the DMZ, and the countryside was much improved. So despite sanctions, North Korea has been able to sustain itself, build up its nuclear capabilities, ICBM capability, and largely hold body and soul together with a great sense of dignity. South Korea has 30,000 American GIs. North Korea will not count in even one single soldier from the PLA. Only dead ones in the cemetery. So these are very determined people. And now with the Ukraine war, Russia has decided not to be part of allow the [snorts] continuation of a UN agency to police sanctions. North Korea today has escaped. They will now work [snorts] with Russia, and that's why Putin is in North Korea. So North Korea, Iran today will benefit from what has happened in Ukraine, and they they can no longer be confined. And even when they were confined, they still managed to make remarkable progress. So a way must be found to talk to reduce tension, to gradually take small steps towards peace. It's very tragic, the Korean people. Now, unlike the Germans who were the aggressor during the Second World War and therefore divided, North Korea was a victim before the end of the Second World War and remained divided till today. And China's position is they have a right to be reunited. So Deng Xiaoping took this position. Just summarize in the usual Chinese way. If the South invades the North, China will support the North. If the North invades the South, China will not be involved. But not to oppose it, because unification of Korea is a right of the Korean people. That's their belief, and their ambassador in Pyongyang is always senior to the ambassador in Seoul. In fact, their ambassador in Pyongyang always comes from the international liaison department of the Chinese Communist Party. But at the same time, they have very intimate links with South Korea, with which they have a very strong economic relationship. And when South Korea allowed the Americans to deploy air defense radars for the THAAD system, they punished South Korea, and in the end, South Korea had to adjust its position. So they keep their links to North and South Korea, to Russia, managing their relations with America and with Japan. So China is in fact playing a very skillful game, in in my opinion.
I think the problem is Chinese competitiveness in certain sectors of manufacturing. It has always been the case that when China is at peace and organized, it is the most productive economy on earth. Take say, Chinese pottery. In every dynasty, when they are at peace, they outproduce everybody, and naturally others feel threatened. And indeed, industries are threatened. So when British cotton and fabrics became competitive, so competitive, and India had to import them, it completely decimated the local Indian textile and fabric industry. If India were independent and autonomous, it would have blocked the importation of British textiles. But they could not. So I see the reaction of American Europe to [music] Chinese competitiveness as natural. And perhaps it's not possible to avoid trade negotiations and manage trade. [music] So if you allow the free importation of Chinese EVs, then eventually you lose the industry. But if you protect, you're imposing a cost on your own consumers. Will the time it buys [music] you enable you to to catch up on productivity? If you cannot, then you should shift position, because there's a cost involved in buying that time. When I was street minister, I gave a speech once that the juggernaut is coming down the expressway. If you stand in front of it, that's not very wise. But if you move aside and catch the draft, you'll be pulled along. So you need more careful strategizing. If you're only responding to the pain felt by ordinary people [music] and reacting first order, the result will be greater pain later. So in the case of Singapore, we are too small to be price makers in the world. We are price takers. So we adjust. In this area, I cannot compete. So instead of competing with you, you become a factor input, a cheap factor input to what I want to export. Then I gain from your competitiveness. And there has to be this more subtle, deeper, longer-term thinking. But very difficult in a democracy that survives from one election to another, because all the time you're facing pressure from the ground, and your responses are short-term rather than long-term. Chinese competitiveness in the end relies upon a very large internal market and a very hardworking population. I mean, they work on weekends. It's infecting Singapore now. There's a term DGIT, instead of "Thank God it's Friday," it's becoming "Thank God it's Thursday." Well, why not TGIW? I mean, well, you can do what you want yourself, but in the end, you've got to compete in the global marketplace. Well, keep out the world. Okay, then where will you be in 20 years' time, 50 years' time? You'll be nowhere. That's what happened to the Qing dynasty, right? They they kept out. To 1793, the Qianlong Emperor. There's nothing [music] you have that we're interested in. There's nothing we can learn from you. Go home. And the result was a precipitous decline. And this is now a [music] challenging period in Western society because the system prevents longer-term strategizing. It's not that people are not aware of the problems or not capable of the analysis, but they're constantly having to respond to short-term electoral pressures.
In the case of Myanmar, on which I spent a great deal of time, when I first met Aung San Suu Kyi after I had left government, I told her, "Daw Suu, I'm so happy to meet you. I spent so much time talking about you, and I'm meeting you for the first time, and it's a privilege." And to see what has since happened is heartbreaking. I don't blame myself or Singapore because the country is trapped in a very difficult situation, but we should all at least try to be peacemakers and not and not be troublemakers. So it fills me with pain, but at the same time, I understand that it will take time, and it's not entirely a bad thing that in Myanmar today, no party, not the government, not the NUG, not the ethnic military organization, no one can win completely. If the center breaks, the country will dissolve into civil war for years to come. I don't think it will. There will be a kind of a no war, no peace, live and let [music] live situation, and the fever will not go away. But if we bring the fever, manage, keep the fever manageable, that's good enough, and let time heal [snorts] the body politic gradually. So Myanmar fills me with a certain sorrow.
Our relationship with Malaysia has improved a lot. One issue which bedeviled us, something quite obscure, which was a railway line from Malaysia running to Singapore, owned by Malaysia, which prevented us from level crossings in many [music] parts. There was an agreement between Mahathir and Lee Kuan Yew, which was never implemented, and [music] the ground was so poisoned, it was difficult to find a solution. But when there was a change of prime ministership in Malaysia, and I had to deal with a new foreign minister, I decided to make an effort, and in the end, had a breakthrough. I can't take credit for it because the ground has shifted, and I was able now to move when in the past I could.