Transcription
Today's number, guys, is a big one. And it all has to do with AI and 2026 as Jack Dorsey comes out and slashes 4,000 jobs from Block. But it's not just that announcement that really is shaking up the market. Nvidia, after a bumper earnings, is down due to gamma walls. And of course, huge movements are starting to occur underneath the hood. But could what was once not looked at so favorably now be starting to look at a little bit better? Today, we need to talk about stocks, commodities, and cryptos as both an investor and traders mindset. Don't go anywhere, guys. There's a lot to discuss. See you soon.
Well, welcome back everybody from the land of the down under. My name is Thomas Atinson, and today we're discussing the macro, what Wall Street's been up to, and of course, the dark pool activity and key flows that have just been happening. With semiconductors down, it looks a little bit scary, but banks did hold their levels. And more importantly, we started to see key flows into certain hated sectors. Could it be that all of these announcements are starting to switch the flow in terms of if it's in the press, it's in the price? One of our favorite sayings on this channel. Just a quick reminder as well, if you love markets like we do, we do this daily, so remember to subscribe and smash that like button. Also, appreciate your comments down below. Recently, guys, there's been some amazing ones, so thank you very much for that.
Let's kick things off here with Jack Dorsey. 10,000 people now only 6,000 people, and basically 4,000 people unfortunately are going to be losing their jobs. Now, there's a big post over here on X from Jack Dorsey about it, but one of the reasons being speculated is of course AI and implementation starting to affect jobs. Now, you'll see that there's a tale of two stories here, though, because although Block shares went up big time after the hours, Wall Street does like job cuts because of course it ends up in profits. But this is a huge deal because of course Sam Altman and many other AI people, and also we've been discussing on the show, have been talking about the concept here of AI being used early to possibly get rid of problems in businesses that stem from overhiring in '21 and 2022.
Now, this is a big story because I think it all comes back to what we've seen recently sold off very heavily. And it does look like Citadel Securities have put out a really interesting report here. This one shared by David Sacks at David Sacks over on X. And you can see here the job postings for software engineers have actually been rising. I think this is a really interesting report because you might think, oh, well, IGV, that is software sector, has been getting absolutely hammered, and it has, and we know that people have been building huge short positions in it for quite some time in terms of the hedge funds. But then all of a sudden, we've hit a major demand level, which we'll look at later on today's video, and everyone has started to try to buy the dip. And of course, what did we do? Well, we may have just kicked that dip out. Lot of stuff going on here. But what this shows is that actually job postings for software engineers has actually increased, and overall, indeed, job postings has kind of stabilized in recent times. So there's a bit of a different tale, at least based on this data here from Citadel, that's a little bit different from what we're being told, or at least what we're seeing in the price. And this is often when you get those big inflection points in markets, and something that we've been talking about now for the last kind of week or two when it comes to one of the most heavily shorted sectors of 2026.
So you might be thinking, hm, Nvidia earnings, they were pretty good. How could the market be going down? Well, as we did say on this channel, it's not so much the Nvidia earnings that were going to make the best trade. It was the catalyst that it was going to potentially kick off. And funnily enough, we're starting to see that catalyst. We're starting to see tech stocks potentially stabilizing down the lows, while semiconductors are actually drifting a little bit lower. So, as Nvidia wasn't able to get through that 200 call wall or really hold above 195, Blue Kurdig put out a pretty good result here, I think, which is an interesting one based on earnings results. What happens around the earnings reaction, and then of course the post-earnings drift? And you'll notice here that generally speaking, the post-earnings drift has been, at least for the last couple of years, positive for Nvidia. So, is it time to panic just yet? Not necessarily. We'll look at semiconductors later on the chart, as that is a very important, of course, read here.
Now, Crossberg Cap at Crossberg Cap over on X has posted a couple of cool charts that I thought I'd share with you guys, and it's kind of showing that liquidity is being provided in some ways by the uh Fed, and also it's kind of like a QE, a secret QE. They've got a great report here, and I really enjoyed this one. So basically, it just shows that treasury securities held by the US Fed, there's actually been an acceleration during 2026 here of liquidity providing, and of course, global liquidity in general seems to be going up. And you'll notice here again, if you want to check them out at Crossberg Cap over on X, and you can see that uh it does look like in general, there is still liquidity being provided for the market for now. Now, of course, could this change? Yep. And when it does, it is an important factor that you want to be considering if the markets are, of course, to fall off. And that's something we'll continue to track along with these ones here, including dark pool activity.
Now, if you're new to the channel, dark pool activity basically, or cluster trades, basically show large entities starting to make big decisions. Now, you've got to assume that there's always, of course, two sides, and you guys always talk about this in the channel, like you're always saying, "Well, there's two sides. There's the buyer and the seller. So, how is it worthwhile looking at it?" Well, sometimes you've got to remember somebody has more information than we do. And what we've got to be looking at here is that we've been in a sideways market now for months on the major indices in the US. Not in the world indices, emerging markets, the Footsie, the Australian market here. All of these ones have been going higher. But you can see here that we've got this huge cluster that just came out. And now, according to Volume Leaders, this is actually the largest cluster trade ever traded in in its tracking results for the Qs. And this is, of course, a massive ETF. So what's that suggesting? It suggests that of course, we are still range-bound for now in the indices, and we haven't seen a major breakout. One of the key levels to look at is going to be 7,000 in the future for the S&P in particular.
Speaking of the S&P, we did have some dark pool activity come in over the last 24 hours. We reported on that last video, and since then the markets have dropped off a little bit again. The markets went up to the supply or the resistance. They've found, of course, a short here, and they've moved on down. Is this unusual? No. Is it upsetting? Not really. I mean, we don't really have a strong trend just yet.
Now, you might think the single stock announcements are over, but actually, there's been a flurry of announcements here. According to uh the latest data here from Netflix, supposedly Netflix has dropped out um of a fight to buy Warner Bros. And of course, after hours, they've moved up. Now, if you've been looking at the charts, and we actually just started looking at the charts over at the Market Masters Club over at FXevolution.com, www.fxevolution.com. Uh, links in the description down below. And we funnily enough just bought this up literally 24 hours ago, and we were talking about, you know, basing structures starting to appear. All of a sudden, we get Netflix, you know, dropping out. This was not a popular deal in any way. And it's just again, surprising or interesting how all of these things happen in uh, you know, kind of consideration. They all happen together. And why this is always important is it's what we talk about here on the channel. Follow the flows, follow the correlation, follow these types of things. So Netflix, of course, reacting interestingly to that. And I think we'll have to do a special on the weekend to have a look at some of these structures and how they're forming post the Friday close and weekly close.
Now, is this any surprise? Well, in some ways, no. You can see here Subu Trade and a chart we've been sharing recently has shown short interest. It's shown that a lot of people have been trying to short the rubbish out of tech and software and all these other uh kind of businesses, and that that's hit crescendo. So, effectively, everyone's negative on these markets. Sometimes that can create a base or an inflection point. And again, Nvidia may just be a catalyst here to set off so many of these different announcements, whether it be to show that, you know, where companies have got layoffs, which we've seen quite a few, or even uh specifically making different announcements about where the business is going in the future.
Let's now take a look though at the S&P 500. And I want to bring up this chart because of course, it just really details exactly uh what we've been seeing recently. This is actually the monthly. Look at this tight range, guys. And if you go here to the weekly, you can see again the tight range. Basically, we're moving from 6,800, which is a weekly 20 moving average, mean reversion, a very important hold there at that zone. And we haven't been able to break through 7,000. So, this is what I would call a pit. So, a pullback in time. Now, is this bad? No. Inherently, it's not bad. It just means you need to look at stocks and sectors underneath the hood. We've looked at plenty of those of course together over the last months, and there's actually been a lot of opportunity. It's just that we're not really quite seeing, I guess, a strong index which people get used to over time. It's a stock picker's market more than an index market at this point.
Now, what happened with the US 500? It went up to that level. The dark pool activity might have been a little bit strong. It's pushed down. 7,000 still an issue, and we're back down to that most traded zone. Remember, around 6,900 is basically the equilibrium point of this range at this stage with most of the trades going through there. So I'd say we're pretty neutral, obviously neutral bullish on the stock market because we haven't seen uh any downward trend start to appear.
Let's have a look at the gamma results. Do we see anything going on here in the puts kind of levels? Not really. 6900 seems to be a relatively good put wall. Obviously, we know each 100 points is important. 7,000's really tough. 6,900, 6,800. That's what you got to be looking at. You can see here that the amount of puts that are left underneath 6,800. If we get underneath 68, 6770, I think it's going to be one of those huge kind of waterfall effects. So, uh, for bears, you know, if that does start to occur, you're going to be like, "Wow, this thing's getting really serious." We're seeing something similar on the Qs as well. So, the NASDAQ 600 is the key level here, and of course, we're seeing that appear.
Now, let's take a look here at Nvidia. So the question was, could we hold above 195, break 200, which is the main call strike, and the answer is quite simply no. A lot of people now posting about this. I don't think it's necessarily terrible for Nvidia, but as I did mention, and as we've talked about together many times, and I've talked in the Market Masters Club, the main thing here was not so much whether Nvidia was going to be the best trade because all eyes were on it. It was whether it was going to start other things. And actually, software has picked up since the announcement and just before the announcement. A very interesting thing. We also knew that 200 was the massive call. So it just seems to be that Nvidia is struggling to get through this zone for now, but I don't think it looks terrible on the charts, and we'll look at that soon.
Tesla, not many updates. I know a lot of you guys in the comments say, "Tom, what about Tesla?" Look, 400 is the put wall, 420, 430 is the call wall. That's pretty much how it is. And in terms of Bitcoin, it's been a little slow on that front. Uh, we haven't broken through 72K, which we'll look at in a moment, but the markets obviously did see that real really large rebound. And I think 42 could be an interesting zone for IBIT. But you'll notice here, anything above this kind of 3850, 39, you're starting to get into nice territory with a lot of calls behind it.
All right, let's jump on to semiconductors versus of course the Spy. Now, we pretty much look at the semiconductors as being the modern-day Dow theory. This is the most important kind of chart to be watching. It's allowed us to be more bullish than I guess some people would have been because the semiconductors have been very, very strong, and they've fallen now down a little bit over the last 24 hours. But if we have a look at semis in general, you'll notice that they're still making a series of higher highs and higher lows, and we did just close above and we've come down to the daily 20s. So, important level here for semiconductors. I wouldn't say scary yet. Uh, but yeah, right at those highs, so we'll see how that ends up playing out.
Another one is Nvidia versus SPY. Little bit of underperformance, of course, last session. If we take a look at Nvidia itself, you'll notice it came back down. And what I like to do here is I like to just have a look at the most traded kind of area. And you'll notice that there's a huge amount of trade in here. So really, if a bid buy is going to come in, this is the kind of area you would expect it to happen. And we'll be watching that closely. We don't want Nvidia under 170. If that happens, something's wrong. It hasn't happened yet. So therefore, it's still kind of, you know, in the buy side, I guess, from the aspect of the markets.
XLK, the tech sector, no break up. So obviously important to look at, but software did power three days now in a row. So software has massive volume in it. Of course, we know everyone tried to buy the dip here. We know that it swung a low, which is kind of symptomatic of of maybe a trap, and then we've now seen a bit of a rejection here off the markets. Now, this is a very important sector because of course, it was the one that was going with the stock market for a really long time, and that's started to slow down a little bit here. So, interesting times for this, interesting times for Microsoft as well. Uh, we've got some alerts at higher highs, and I also noticed that ARK as well. Um, although it's not here in the in the for whatever reason on the back, but you can see it's ARK. Uh, we're looking at this actually improving. So all of a sudden, these hyperscalers, these businesses that were getting kind of hit for a little while, the volume has picked up on them, and the price action's also improved. So, could it be the time for certain areas in tech? It's been a long time since we could say that, guys. I feel like it's been six months, and that's because it really has been almost six months since the last time tech looked any good.
So yeah, big big week coming next week, especially with the closes. For now, the best markets in the world have generally been emerging. Best markets in the world have been oil. You know, the Footsie is crazy. I don't know if you guys have ever looked at the Kospi, but check, take a look at this. This will blow your mind. You might literally fall off your seat. Whoa, guys. Holy Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Now, that's a market. I tell you what, guys. These, that's that's an AI market in terms of RAM. Take a look at this. It's absolutely insane. That is 173% on an index. And um, if that doesn't scream a problem in the future, I don't know what does. That being said, you don't want to go and predict any of those things, guys. Remember, markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent. But take a look at those monthly candles. In two months, this has put on 49%. What a wild market it is in uh South Korea.
Now, let's have a look here at financials. Good news for bulls. It held the secret demand. So, the secret demand was held. That's good news. That's of course some strength. We also started to see of course financials just hold overall, and silver coming in on that 90 is continuing to kind of, you know, slightly find buyers. So just around that area down here, we ended up found a buy. So again, nothing wrong with really those markets. Gold again, just holding up. Slow pit trend is up at this stage. So not really too many concerns there. But we did see US oil fall down. So UK oil, Brent um, and US oil both dropped. They both dropped to the daily 20, which has been where we've seen buying so far. We have seen a bit of a rejection off this zone. Can we now make a higher high? Oil's been doing pretty well in terms of the price action flows in recent times, specifically oil stocks and um services. So yeah, we're interested in watching oil continue, and of course, it's very important it holds the higher low. You do not want it to go underneath 62 a barrel. So this will be one we cover after Friday's close as well.
Chinese stocks did drop to a new low, but they're still kind of barely holding up. Series of lower lows and lower highs in this sequence. So, we're looking for a breakout there. And of course, Ethereum, you can see here when it comes to the crypto world, not quite broken out. Solana, not quite broken out. And Bitcoin obviously not through 672K, but I think some encouraging signs on smaller time frames. We did manage to buy through 69 in terms of the market actually moved through that price. And that's encouraging because it kind of gets rid of some downward trend lines. Uh, it also does get rid of some shorts that might have been in here. So liquidations did start to rise. We'll have some information on liquidations on the weekend. But in general, this is a pretty interesting inflection point. 2050 cross as well on the four-hour. All these things can can potentially drive uh Bitcoin. It does take a lot of structure to break a freight train though. So just remember, this thing was coming down ferociously. So weekly close will need to be observed very much so on Bitcoin.
Guys, to summarize right now, I think the market is really a tale of multiple stories. Firstly, abundance mindset from single stocks and sectors, and understanding that the flows are not just basically all of tech anymore in the Magnificent 7. We're not really seeing any breakouts that look horrendous yet, or bond market freakouts, or anything like that, but there's clearly a weakness in, you would say, the underlying when it comes to certain uh, you would say employment figures. The American consumer, the way we read that, has been weakening for some time. Can you then take that macro and say I'm going to go short all of the market? No. All you can do is you can say, okay, that's a canary or a warning sign, and for now, we're still seeing flows in the positive direction. Things to watch: S&P 500 in the range-bound market. Some other things to watch, of course, is to make sure that Nvidia holds up, and so do semiconductors. So the backbone of the AI bubble kind of holds up. And some interesting times for things like software, Netflix, and all that stuff that's been hated for a while. You guys know we haven't really talked about it much recently, and and that's because it's been six months of going everywhere else. But just like that, you know, things can change, and as we suspected, you know, Nvidia could be a catalyst here, regardless of it being the actual stock moving. And that's the way the market kind of goes.
If you enjoyed today's video, please remember to subscribe, smash that like button, and thank you so much for watching, guys. I really do appreciate it. Bye for now.