Transcription
Every single year, rookies are crucial to fantasy football success. It really can be the difference between just making the playoffs or winning the whole damn thing, becoming the king of your league.
Remember 2025, Jackson Dart, drafted as a quarterback 30 in ADP, finished quarterback 13, quarterback 14 on a points per game basis. That same year, Harold Fannin, drafted as a tight end 32, finishes a top six tight end. Cam Skattaboe, drafted RB 33 before the injury was the RB nine on a points per game basis.
2024, how about Jayden Daniels, a league winner, the quarterback 12 off the board in drafts as a rookie, finished as the quarterback five. How about Malik Nabers, wide receiver 24 off the board as a rookie, finished as the wide receiver six. Go back to 2023, Jordan Addison, wide receiver 37 ADP, way out performs it. Sam LaPorta in 2023, the tight end 18 off the board, finished as the tight end one. You won your league if you drafted Sam LaPorta. Devon Achane as a rookie. RB 41 off the board, average RB five on a per game basis.
In 2022, we can remember Breece Hall, Ken Walker, Tyler Allgeier all being drafted way below their ADP, finishing way higher. And one of the best examples ever, 2021, Ja'Marr Chase, drafted as a wide receiver 29, finishing as the wide receiver five.
I am going to talk about seven players I am drafting everywhere because I believe as rookies, they can win your fantasy championship, they can win you your best ball tournaments. And I will have a scale on where I think they can be a league winner from a scale of one to 10. The scale does not ask who will score the most fantasy points. It asks based on their draft price, what you have to invest into them, how possible is it that they return huge value on that asking price. So, for example, Ja'Marr Chase, he was an expected producer as a rookie. We got a couple of those today, but the names like Cam Skattaboe, Harold Fannin, those are cheap upside swings and they are cheaper, they have a a higher return potential, right?
Okay. Uh how about Zach Charbonnet price to to start off this video? Rookie first round running back with the Seattle Seahawks. On that scale of 1 to 10, I've given him a seven because I don't think that his asking price is unreasonable as the RB24 ESPN 25 Underdog 28 on Yahoo. I can absolutely see him breaking into the top 15 as a rookie. No rookie is really set up for success better uh on day one than Zach Charbonnet price. Think about the situation he's stepping into. Ken Walker is gone. Leaving behind 221 carries. Zach Charbonnet, let's look at the injury timeline for him for 1 second, okay? If you guys remember, January 17th of of this very year, January 17th, they blew out the 49ers, and that was the day that Zach Charbonnet tore his ACL. Uh the next day, January 20th or a couple days after, it was officially reported that he tore his ACL. Over a month later, February 21st is when the actual surgery for Zach Charbonnet takes takes place, right? That would mean that week one of the NFL season, he will only have been 6 months and 19 days post-surgery. The end of the fantasy season, he would be 10 months post-surgery. Typically, it's somewhere between 8 to 12 months return to play for torn ACL with running backs.
Okay, let's think about it. Worst case scenario, with Kenneth Walker alone, you are looking at the red portion, and this is a pie of the opportunities in Seattle, right? You can see 43.6% of the team's rushing attempts up for grabs. 49% of the team's rushing yards from last year up for grabs. 26.3% of the team's rushing touchdowns up for grabs. Best case scenario here, what if both Walker and Charbonnet are out for the entire year? We know Walker won't be, right? But if Charbonnet misses the entire year, you're looking at almost 80% of the team rushing attempts, 84% of the team rushing yards, and 90% of the team's rushing touchdowns.
I think way too many people are overthinking Kendre Miller price in fantasy drafts this year. I believe I'm being cautious when I look at my projections and give him 54% of the team carries, you know, eight rushing touchdowns. I've got him at 13 points per game. I think he has a great chance to be a true difference-maker. And there's this narrative out there that everybody is spewing. They're saying, "Oh, look, they're going to split opportunities in Seattle with Emmanuel Wilson and Zach Charbonnet." Seattle always does that. Look at what happened with Kendre Miller and Zach Charbonnet. Probably the silliest thing you could possibly say, and I'm sorry if you were commenting that already, because it's not the same staff. It's a brand new offensive coordinator, okay? New offensive coordinator is Brian Flores. All right, the old coordinator who was calling plays for for Seattle is now the head coach of the Raiders. The only time that Brian Flores has controlled an entire running back backfield was last year in San Francisco, where Christian McCaffrey had his career high in rushing attempts. My pro comp ceiling pro comp for Kendre Miller price is JK Dobbins. I think there's some special potential in year one.
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Carnel Tate, the next player. Now, I've put Carnel Tate on a four out of 10 on this scale of potential league winner. The reason he isn't higher is just simply because of the price. It doesn't mean I don't believe in him. I will be drafting him in plenty of leagues, but it's just he is the most expensive rookie wide receiver to draft, so it's harder to return that value when you're being asked to take him relatively high. If any wide receiver in this class though has that Malik Nabers unlimited targets type of case, it's got to be Carnel Tate. Simply put, there isn't a single wide receiver who can really hold his jockstrap on that squad. You know, Wan'Dale Robinson is there, sure, but there's no way that their target shares ever been being mixed up or their roles ever been being mixed up, right? Wan'Dale can't do what Tate can do, and Tate can't do what Wan'Dale can do. Uh Tennessee is currently ninth overall in vacated targets. A lot of that to the tight end position. Transparently, you know, you'd have to be doing some aggressive projections to say they're going to be really high-quality targets. I kind of got the Titans right around the middle of the pack in passing attempts per game in my projections. And I honestly, even though they might not be like quality targets, I wouldn't say Malik Nabers' targets as a rookie were high-quality targets. Like, he had a very bad offense he was a part of, very low catchable ball rate, but still high fantasy output. Most importantly, I currently project him to have the highest target share of any rookie wide receiver at 24%. Low catch percentage I'm projecting at 61%. Still puts him around 13.8 points per game. There could be a higher ceiling there if he if Kam Ward takes a huge step in year number two. My ceiling comp for him, George Pickens, Tee Higgins. Somewhere around there is what I think he can give the NFL.
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All right. Jordan Tyson, definitely a potential league winner in 2026. I've given him a five out of 10 on the scale. Again, the question isn't just asking who's going to produce the most, it's also baking in the price you have to pay for these guys. Incredibly promising quarterback, an ascending offense, Tyler Shuck last year from week 10 onwards, huge sample size. That's after his first two starts in the NFL, performing with some of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, right? Like, right up there with the Caleb's, Trevor's, Herbert's to end the year. His efficiency was far superior to most quarterbacks in the NFL, averaging a 70% completion percentage, which only Drake May was higher in that span, excuse me. He was very, very good. This team very clearly needed a number two weapon in the offense though. Outside of Chris Olave, there wasn't a lot to work with. They were trying to make Devonte Ball a feature in the offense, right? Tyler Shuck, the quarterback of the Saints, is also very excited to work with him. Check out what he had to say about the guy. I think his body control and his separation is what stands out to me. I think he's he's an elite separator and then also his hands has been really really exciting to see kind of close up now is he's so sure-handed. He's he's got this great kind of feel whenever he's very friendly to the quarterback I would say and then obviously his big play abilities is what shows up all over tape. So You know, one of the things that he talked about there was the elite route running package from Jordan Tyson. I concur. I loved watching his film this year in the dynasty cycle of things. So does Matt Harmon of Reception Perception who mentioned in his report that Tyson's 86% success rate versus zone coverage is not only the best result in this class, but it's the fifth highest mark since 2021 for a power five wide receiver. Tyson was a big producer in college, 136 catches over 1800 yards and 18 touchdowns in 21 games the last two years at Arizona State. My pro ceiling comp for him, ceiling comp, best case scenario, maybe some potential Amari Cooper. How about that? I think he could be a great great player.
Okay. Another receiver here. How about Casey Concepcion? I put him at an eight out of 10 because it's so cheap to add him to your squads. He's the wide receiver 51 on Underdog. I mean, what are you possibly scared about? I know it's a bad offense, but be so for real right now. Unfortunately, there aren't really many vacated targets in Cleveland. They're actually 22nd in vacated targets right now, but fortunately, there is nobody on this team that can hang with Casey Concepcion, right? Exhibit one, Jerry Jeudy. Exhibit two, Cedrick Tillman. Exhibit three, Isaiah Bond. He will be the most talented receiver on that team day one. Had a ridiculous true freshman breakout by the way. As the at the age of 17 or 18 years old, he's putting up 10 touchdowns as a true freshman. Such a fun watch on film, ridiculous route runner. Mart- Matt Harmon, excuse me, had this to say in his report. He said, "He demolishes man-in-press coverage, is a reliable target against zone coverage, and makes plays above the rim rim with the ball in space. You really can't ask for more out of a round one receiver prospect. The guy has great success on all these different types of routes." Amongst wide receivers that Matt charted in this class, number one success rate versus man, number three versus zone, number one versus press coverage, and number four in contested catch rate. The only thing holding him back is the Browns offense, who uh right now I don't project to be the most valuable targets this year. You know, when you look at total vacated targets available in an offense, and also pass per uh projected pass attempts, my pro comp for Keacy Conception, Emmanuel Sanders. I think he could be a great player, maybe even better if he uh breaks out in year one.
Okay, we all know this name, Jeremiah Love. This is the most obvious name. I didn't want to talk about it too much at the beginning. Let's play good cop bad cop, because people who actually have watched this video will be reasonable, and the people who are skipping through it are going to be in the comment section complaining when I give him a four out of 10 on the league winner scale. Let's play a little good cop bad cop, okay? Bad cop first. The reason I've rated him this low is simply because of the ADP. The price to draft this guy, the commitment you have to give is your second round pick. Across ESPN Yahoo Best Ball competitions, he's a mid second rounder, sometimes early second rounder. And when you look at some of the other rookies in this class, like Tyson Price, Tate, all going in round six, that is a high investment to give a running back. I mean, we have seen that not pay off plenty of times in history with these rookies coming in. This team just signed Tyjae Spears in free agency, who thought he was going to be the lead back in Arizona, so I would be shocked if he's not involved on involved on the goal line, short yardage situations, you know what I mean? This team not able to run the ball last year, right? Not shocking to see them heavily invest in the running back room. They were last in rushing attempts, second last in rushing yards, 27th in rushing touchdowns, 31st in rushing yards per game. You know, it's it's it's an offense that needed improvement, they addressed it. The good news is Jeremiah Love is an elite pass-catching weapon and would be heavily involved if the team was down in games like they were last year.
Okay, here's a good comp, right? There have only been two running backs drafted top three in the last decade, Jeremiah Love and Saquon Barkley. That speaks to his rarefied air. He has been paid big money. In fact, there has never been a running back in NFL history who's been given more guaranteed money straight out the gate or just in general at any point in their career than Jeremiah Love, who has $50 million guaranteed. Second in the NFL, Saquon at $36 million. They're likely going to give this guy a big role. The upside case is that he's just too talented to keep off the field through a you know a huge maybe year through the air as well as a pass-catcher. I project him around 15.9 points per game. That will put him around my RB12, but I have lowered those projections since I've really thought it out with Tyler Allgeier. My ceiling pro comp is Breece Hall. I think he's going to give you a very similar outcome and to be fair, Breece Hall as a rookie was really really good.
Okay, we're going to get to some more you know, sneaky deep sleepers in the rookie class this year. This is my favorite deep sleeper from the rookie class Antonio Williams. ESPN has him at wide receiver 73. Are you kidding me? I've given him an eight out of 10 on the league-winner scale. Again, because he's so cheap. He might be your last pick, but has ridiculous upside in an offense that clearly needs more weapons, right? The world is his oyster as a rookie. Let's look at who he has to beat out for targets. Terry McLaurin, clearly the number one weapon on this team. Outside of that, who? [clears throat] Okay? Luke McCaffrey? Not that guy. Treylon Burks? Can he just stay on the field? Dyami Brown? Just a backup, a quality backup. Now, we've heard reports that Aiyuk might come to the Commanders. At this point, we don't we can't even confirm if Aiyuk has not been abducted by aliens, okay? He could very easily been abducted by aliens at this point. None of us would even have known. Uh last year, Deebo led this team in yards and targets. He's no longer second in targets with Zach Ertz. He's no longer on the team. Commanders are desperate for receiving weapon to step up. They're third in total targets vacated, fifth in total wide receiver vacated targets. The only reason I'm not higher is because Washington is not a typically with Jayden Daniels a team that throws the ball a lot compared to the rest of the league. I do project him to be towards the bottom half in passing attempts per game, but there's enough volume. It should be a really good offense. I project Antonio Williams to outscore rookie Denzel Boston on the Browns. Now, my pro comps, I got a crazy one and a realistic one. The crazy one is Julian Edelman cuz he just has that dog to him. Probably not going to happen. The more realistic one, Josh Downs.
Okay, last name in today's video. I hope you appreciated watching. If you did, make sure you subscribe and check out the newsletter down below. Chris Bell, I've given him a six out of 10. If he was healthy, it'd be higher, but he tore his ACL la- late last year in college. Uh now, he's probably the most obvious name to add to this list, right? Because Miami has been completely decimated of any pass-catching weapons. Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller, Tyreek Hill, everybody who caught passes on this team is no longer on this team outside of Devon Achane, right? And as of today, there's just no answers at that position. In fact, they are number one in vacated targets heading into 2026. However, again, one of the reasons I can't have him higher than a 6 out of 10 on that scale is because I currently project project the Dolphins to be one of the lower passing volume offenses in the NFL. So, while we could have a ton of volume up for grabs, it might not be in the most powerful offense with the most powerful, I guess, impact with volume-wise. So, look, my pro comp for him, Martavis Bryant.
So, those are some rookies that I believe could absolutely dominate your fantasy football leagues this year. I want to hear what you think in the comments below. Do me a favor, hit the like button, subscribe if you enjoyed the content. If you didn't, you can leave some hate comments down below, okay? You can really just dig into me. Um, but I appreciate y'all watching and I'll see you in the next one. Nothing but love.